Is Proxy War About to Erupt in Bahrain?
Anyone who has seen the Iranian regime’s film The Coming is Near knows the Middle East is on the verge of exploding. The question is what spark will light it. The region seems to shift daily, but right now, it looks like Iran has chosen Bahrain as the place to pounce.
Iran views Bahrain as ripe for the picking. The pro-American royal family is Sunni, but about 70 percent of the population is Shiite. It faced a popular uprising that had a strong possibility of removing it from power. That uprising was only put down with brute force and intervention from Saudi and Emirati soldiers on March 14. The saving of the Bahraini government does not sit well with Iran and it is poised to wage proxy warfare in response. This would not be unprecedented, as Iran did the same thing in 2009 by supporting the Houthi rebels in their war against the Yemeni government backed by the Saudi military. ,
Hossein Naqavi, a member of the Iranian Majiles’ National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has explicitly threatened war, declaring: “The Saudis should know for a fact that Tehran will use all the power and potentials at its disposal to halt the oppression of the people in Iran.” He said the United Nations must act to force the Saudi forces out of Bahrain or Iran will. The Shura Council also warned the Saudis that they are “playing with fire,” a remark which the Saudis meekly referred to as “irresponsible.” Now, Iranian “students” have firebombed the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
Hezbollah has offered its support for the uprising in Bahrain and the royal family is accusing the terrorist group of training some of its opponents. Hezbollah’s statement could be brushed off as rhetoric if it weren’t for the fact that a website has been registered by the Iranian government to recruit volunteer fighters to go to Bahrain and battle forces sent by the Gulf Cooperation Council. The website, which is tied to Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, says it will email those who register with instructions that include “martyrdom” operations. It claims that nearly 2,000 volunteers have signed up, 60 percent of whom are from Iran and 18 percent of whom are from Bahrain. Another government-run website published a letter from Shiites in Bahrain asking for Iranian intervention.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps is said to have already dispatched armed operatives to Bahrain undercover as air marshals on Iran Air flights. On March 27, Qatar seized two Iranian ships loaded with weapons near Bahrain. These incidents have caused a rupturing in diplomatic ties between Iran and Bahrain. Secretary of Defense Gates confirms that “we already have evidence that the Iranians are trying to exploit the situation in Bahrain. We also have evidence that they are talking about what they can do to try to create problems elsewhere as well.” On April 11, Ruhollah Hosseinian, a pro-Ahmadinejad member of the Majiles, explicitly called for Iranian military intervention. “I believe that the Iranian government should not be reluctant to prepare the country’s military forces at a time that Saudi Arabia has dispatched its troops to Bahrain,” he said.
If Iran does intervene, it will work closely with its Shiite allies like Hassan Mushaima, the secretary-general of the al-Haq party. Mushaima openly says that if the Saudis came to the aid of the Bahraini royal family, then the Shiite opposition has “the right to appeal for help from Iran.” Mushaima, Iran, and Hezbollah will work hard to paint this as a sectarian struggle because of the demographics of the country, but as the Iraqi Shiite hostility to Iran shows, the Arab Shiites cannot be put in the same league as the Iranian government.
Luckily, senior members of the Democratic Alliance, which is an umbrella organization of three opposition parties, have issued a statement condemning Iranian involvement in Bahrain. The country’s largest political party, al-Wefaq, has also demanded that Iran keep out. A spokesman for its leader, Sheikh Ali Salman, said: “We have our own identity and we don’t want the Islamic Republic of Iran meddling in Bahrain. We don’t want the Velayat-e-Faqih in Bahrain,” referring to the system of governance in Iran. Remarkably, he responded to a question about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with, “Let the Palestinians solve their own problems.” The Bahraini opposition has tried to dispel the notion that it is motivated by sectarianism and the chairman of the Bahrain Transparency Society says, “We want genuine democracy, not clerical.”
This rejection of Iranian involvement is encouraging, but that doesn’t mean that Iran won’t use the calls for help from Hassan Mushaima as an excuse to repeat what it did in Yemen in 2009. The language and actions of the Iranian government strongly indicate it is preparing for war in Bahrain. And if war happens, then the instability we’ve seen this year so far will pale by comparison.
Why now?
The US, which ensured regional stability, especially for the small Gulf states, is abandoning responsibility for MENA, unless they can bomb people for “humanitarian” purposes.
Iran, Hizballah, and the Shiites in Bahrain can make this thing look “spontaneous”, “democratic”, and “humanitarian” – they have facebook and twitter. Then, as in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, Obama will support the “democratic reformers” and call for the Gov of Bahrain to step down and KSA to not intervene. Meanwhile Iran will be arming the “facebook revolutionaries” with real weapons. The US will delay and perhaps give speeches as Iran takes control over a US ally and massive oil resources.
I predict Iran will get Hamas and Hizballah to attack Israel as a feint and then go after Bahrain. After all, if the US has the “responsibility to protect” civilians in Libya, Iran has R2P for fellow Shiites in Bahrain.
Iranian Spy Rings Busted In Kuwait, Bahrain
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/143543
Court documents said the three unamed defendents had contacts with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard from 2002 to April 2010 to provide them with military and economic information, and data on military and industrial sites in Bahrain in a bid to harm the country’s national interests.
Ya OK, that’s all well and good. IF I were Obama I think that what I would do is raise taxes on everybody and try to stop the Republicans from killing the elderly and starving babies and women and all the other evil things he says they do. And I know it’s true because he said so and I saw him on TV.
This would go a long way in resolving the issues in the ME and elsewhere, like California and Arkansas.
And then we could bomb them. No I don’t mean California and Arkansas, I mean the ME people.
There. Now was that so tough? This stuff is so easy.
Bombing (certain parts) of Arkansas and California might have made sense in the 80s. Not now, however. Horses are outta the barn, if you know what I mean.
Our natural reaction to Iranian scimitar rattling would be, “Get ready for a visit from Mr. Tomahawk.” But not with the Kinetic One’s Furies calling the shots.
Jay is certainly right when he predicts social media as the new propaganda medium. And Bahrain is a well chosen target.
Obama will not do anything for two reasons:
- He does not care about Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, oil, or our Navy presence. Those are geopolitical considerations and he has no interest in that. To care about geopolitics is to care about something other than himself and that does not occur to him.
- He is afraid of Iran. To confront them means he will have to make decisions on his own, not merely seeing which way the wind blows or just going along to splash in the pond with his NATO buddies. He is intimidated by both Iran and Israel because they think and act so differently than he does. They do what they want on their own, they think for themselves, they do not seem impressed by him at all. They are the mean kids.
Convincing your enemies your crazy is an effective strategy. The Iranians play that game well.
If the Israelis could use computer technology to shake-to-death every centrifuge in an Iranian nuclear reactor complex whose to say they can’t take control of the reactor should it ever get up and running.
Perhaps that why the Saudis publicly predicted that Iranian nuclear activity would cause another Chernobyl.
Perhaps Abdullah knows something that Ahmadinejad doesn’t.
Now that’s an interesting suggestion, and altogether plausible.
Good grief, another war. We have the war in Iraq. We have the war in Afghanistan. We now have the Obama war in Libya (undeclared and under false pretenses; what genocide?) We have an undeclared war going on south of the border down Mexico way. We have the war on drugs (a Nixon war that isn’t going so well in America). We have the Bush “war on terror,” but refuse to control the borders and call it a war. We have the Truman war on hold in North Korea for 60 years–that too, was undeclared and not approved by congress and started by a democratic president. We have the war on piracy. That’s seven wars, one on time out, and a new proxy war in the Persian Gulf oven (not counting the on going Arab Israel conflicts). So Obama wants to raise taxes and cut defense to tackle the deficit that accrues at 200 hundred billion a day in borrowed money–what used to be the deficit for one year in borrowed funds in 2007. So, when is Obama going to earn his Noble Peace Prize?
DaOne is doing something. He is supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in North Africa, Egypt, and North America.
Iran may have no choice but to strike in order to save face. What the Saudi’s did in Bahrain is tell the Iranians to go stuff themselves, and their 12th Imam where the Sun don’t shine.
How they strke is the question. Terrorists I suspect, because they would have to support a direct action across the water, and Aircraft can destroy a support line.
You guys thought $4.00 a gallon was high. We may wish for $4.00 soon enough.
The Ayatollah representatives have no grass root support from Iranians. In fact your articles uses the word “Iran” to describe the activities of the Ayatollahs. This is a bit like using the word “Germany” to describe the activities of Nazis. Please respect Iranians and not mix us with Ayatollahs and their activities.
Red On Red sounds mighty fine to me.
lets watch while these folks kill each other.
It will be worth $5.00 P/Gal gas.
Actually, don, the Korean war was started by North Korea. Remember…???And Truman did as well as could be hoped, considering the woeful lack of preparation of US forces. The Peace Dividend, and all…
This has been brewing since the day that the Saudis first sent their troops to Bahrain. I’m sure it’s obvious to all concerned. I don’t know why you say that it will be a proxy war. It’s only a hop skip and a jump from Iran. I won’t be surprised to hear that they’ve sent troops and are firing missiles. First Bahrain, next Riyadh. There’s no love lost among these combatants. I’m sure the only thing holding back the Mullahs is fear that Mr. Tomahawk will come for their scalps. And I’m sure he will.
Tomahawks are ok. I’m hoping for a hundred or so M.O.A.B.s.
Ali
Activities of Nazis did describe Germany and Germans during and before WWII. Some of Germans might have been in opposition to Hitler and to Nazi policies but they did not do enough to stop their activities, to stop invasion of Poland and they did not removed Hitler from power.
Before shah was removed by Iranians, the activities of shah were also called “activities of Iranians”. Same with present government.
Ayatollahs, unfortunately, are the present government of Iran. You may not like it, and you may not like them, but you (Iranians) have not yet removed them from power. So the description is valid.
It is to our benefit if the sons of Islam kill each other off. They live to kill and destroy. Let’s get out of that sinkhole of the world where we waste our boy’s lives and our taxpayer’s money. Let’s develop green energy and sell it to the civilized world.
#11Cross Bow 33
I’m with you – Arabs vs. Persians – Bad Luck to Both of them – Like badgers fighting skunks, pass the popcorn, chips and beer, it will be a great “watch.”
Dr. Shalit
Agreed. I wonder who Al Jazeera will support? Do they have their own version of the “Most Trusted Man in America?”