Is Kim Jong-Il Fearful of an Uprising?
A South Korean naval ship sank on March 26 after an explosion ripped the vessel into two. Suspicion of the source of the explosion immediately focused on North Korea, although South Korean and American officials emphasized that there was no proof that the incident was an attack and that it could have resulted from a collision with a mine planted decades ago. If North Korea is behind the explosion, the reason may lie in reports about the country’s population becoming more aware of the oppression they are being subjected to.
Initially, South Korea and the U.S. downplayed notions that the ship was sunk by Kim Jong-Il’s military. The location of the sinking was in the Yellow Sea near the North Korean coast in disputed waters that have previously been the scene of naval clashes as recently as November. The South Korean defense minister is now stating that he thinks the explosion was caused by a torpedo, but he isn’t ruling out the possibility of an accidental explosion from a Korean War-era mine or the deliberate targeting of the ship with a mine.
The chairman of the South Korean National Assembly’s Defense Committee says that two North Korean Shark-class submarines under surveillance disappeared between March 23 and 27, and they have been unable to determine the location of one of them on March 26, the day of the explosion. The South Korean defense minister initially noted that the vessel did not detect an incoming torpedo on its radar, but this official says that doesn’t matter. North Korea has advanced acoustic torpedoes that slowly stalk their targets so their sound blends in with the engine to escape detection.
High-ranking South Korean officials are voicing their increasing belief that the sinking was the result of hostile activity, but the U.S., eager to avoid a dramatic escalation, is doing the opposite. The commander of U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula says there is no evidence of North Korean involvement in the incident and recommends waiting for a joint U.S.-South Korean probe to figure out exactly what happened.
North Korea has remained eerily silent about the entire affair. They have not denied involvement. On April 4, they actually ratcheted up the crisis by accusing the South Korean military of crossing into the demilitarized zone and shooting at one of their posts, which has been denied.
If North Korea is behind the ship’s sinking and is provoking a heated confrontation that would require some form of retaliation, the question is why. The answer may lie in the fact that the population of North Korea is becoming more aware of their destitute situation, threatening the stability of the regime and the succession process.
In June 2009, Kim Jong-Il officially chose his third son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor. In 2008, Kim Jong-Il suffered a stroke, and rumors about his declining health have been constant ever since. He is believed to be partially paralyzed and suffering from kidney failure.
Kim Jong-Il’s poor health makes it important for the regime to stifle dissent so that leadership can be handed over as smoothly as possible. A major confrontation may be seen as the way to hold the military and country together and to show off his son as a strong, capable leader. However, Kim Jong-Il has used almost all of his tricks to create such a confrontation and catch the attention of the world. More extreme measures would be necessary to achieve this goal.
The new worrd is… inevitabre.
South Korea have twice the population and 30x the GDP … and they REALLY to kick Kim Jong-ill behind … I say lets those Tae-Kwando trained Koreans ride the world of this moron
We have more pressing stuff to care about
The greatest threat of North Korea is the effect of their collapse that will occur on the global economy. The German and European economy are still feeling the effects of West Germany absorbing East Germany. Except East Germany had the highest standard of living of the Eastern Block and there was a significant disparity in population between the two (West Germany had a much larger population than the East). North Korea has a much greater population with a horrifically low standard of living. Essentially the entire nation will become economic refugees as soon as the North falls. This is why China and South Korea continue to prop the North Korean state up and try to raise the standard of living (the hope being that when the inevitable does happen, the economic blown is lessened). The fall of North Korea would basically crush the South Korean economy and drastically slow down the economy of the Pacific rim nations.
WELL I WANDER WHO WILL BE THE NEXT MEMBER’S OF THE M.S.M. TO BE KIDNAP BY KIM JONG-ILL AND PLACED IN HIS EROTIC VERSION OF ‘I AM A CELEBRATY GET ME OUT OF HERE!’ WELL KIM-JONG ILL NEEDS TO LEARN A LESSON: THE JUST BECASUE HE IS A ‘SEXTAGENERIAN’ THAT DOES’NT MEAN WHAT HE THINK IT MEAN’S.
I duuno… the “inevitable uprising of the North Korean people” kinda reminds me of Mark Steyn’s weather-watch for the “fierce Afghan winter”, now 112 months overdue, that will render our troops there helpless to their enemies, etc etc.
They keep telling us it’s inevitable….. and telling us and telling us…..
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Everything is inevitable, if you are willing to wait long enough.
The South Koreans don’t really want to deal with re-unification.
The Chinese don’t want, and may not allow a strong, re-unified Korea on their border.
“Jon Herskovitz of Reuters wrote on March 17 that “he [Kim Jong-Il] lacks a game-changing ace to play that would seriously rattle the international community or spook markets long used to his grandstanding. Unless he is prepared to sail dangerously close to provoking a suicidal war.” This analysis was prescient. Building nuclear weapons and threatening to sell them and the use of frightening rhetoric have already been used, so something new and even more dramatic would be needed to give North Korea the center stage…” Just insert obama where it says Kim Jong-Il and North Korea….and save this text. It may be needed 90 days from now when the boy king is throwing another tantrum with international implications.
An irresponsible and ridiculous comment.
“The West would be wise to speed up the process.”
However, with the boy king in charge, this is the last thing we will do.
Another possibility is that the Chinese could let the Norks collapse, take the South Koreans with them and then move in to clean up the mess on the entire peninsula. What would The Lightworker do, since the Chinese are not only grabbing our economic balls but are more than willing to make The Won “teabag” them…?
Diablo has it dead on!
If Korea has a meltdown, the world would have a basket-case refugee problem that it can ill afford. I have seen the DMZ in 2004 while on a training exercise with Foal Eagle. To the south is lush forest. To the north is desolation. These people have cut down every living thing to either eat or burn to stay warm. The last thing South Koreans want is to share their rice bowl with millions of poor, uneducated peasants who knows nothing of the world except what the Dear Leader has seen fit to teach them. Imagine an entire population of 40 year old paranoid second graders.
Which begs the question? How much more money will we have to borrow from china to feed the North Koreans?
“The commander of U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula says there is no evidence of North Korean involvement * in the incident and recommends waiting for a joint U.S.-South Korean probe to figure out exactly what happened.”
* The key word not mentioned here…. is “yet”.
I suppose everybody has seen the satellite photo of N.Korea at night but here is a link:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/dprk-dark.htm
The N. Koreans are shorter due to the lack of food:
http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2006112256018
When they start selling their women to the Chinese the end will be only a generation away. China’s long policies of single child families has resulted in a lack of women as a lot of the female babies were aborted or killed.
Thanks for the great article. I agree almost completely with you analysis. To continue (and I’ve said this again and again on sites like the Marmot’s Hole — rjkoehler.com) any military retaliation for this or other attacks would play directly into the regime’s hand.
It is difficult to imagine any decisive destabilization—from inside or outside–of NK without them loosing one last military spasm. Their equipment is outdated but they have thousands of tanks and artillery pieces and can probably put together a million men to move south. Soul is within artillery range, about 30k’s, and the US 2nd infantry division is right on the border, foolishly left there as a sacrifice all these years. It would be just like sand castles and a large wave.
In the event of prior massing of NK on the border we could use tactical nukes to shut that down but what do you think are the chances of that with this administration, and said nuclear explosions litterly in Soul’s back yard, China frontier, etc. Look at a map that isn’t going to happen.
Such a military intrusion would be a last gasp suicide move. Once Soul and the 2nd Div. were destroyed then what. as a guess much less than a week? SK would be finished for who knows how many years as an economy or political entity. How many divisions would we have to send to the peninsula to push the NK back (?); who would be interested in the tens of thousands of US casualties? Don’t forget Koreans can fight!
Millions of refugees probably heading into China and Russia. Chinese military forces would have to be sent in to try to stabilize the situation just to keep the number of refugees at a manageable level. They won’t, anyone with legs will see this as their chance to get out.
What to do? I don’t see where anyone has any leverage; NK is a bomb balanced on a pin head sure to fall one day in everybody’s lap.
Will I take the point that there would be a great economic splash …. the notion that the North Korean Army is even worth has to fight a battalion of boyscout is ludicrous
Irak had a far more capable military situation and was completely DESTROYED
North Korea have ONE million men indeed … one million poorly feed, trained and equipped man who doesn’t have the required equipment trucks, tanks and explosives to make a feasible push through the DMZ …
Sure Seoul is right under NK artillery fire …. but the North Korean have not air-force nor the SAM capability to prevent USAF and SK-AF to blow the battery in less than 6 hours
Then the argument of the one millions come again … but South Korea have 30x the North GDP and they can equip their much smaller force 30x better and with more lethal stuff
Having a US battle group at the border only means that the USAF will clean the NoKo quicker …the NoKo will get bombed with so much Smart Bomb that they will think that the SK-US are in reality alien coming from another gallaxy
This is a slam dunk for South Korea, they have the cash, the army and the technology …. they just need the SPINE and less US babysitting …. and maybe spite on Chinas interests
North Korea is an anachronism, a mistake that need no more to exist ….
10K artillery pieces, shooting 1 round a minute, works out to around 3.6 million rounds fired in 6 hours. Assuming a linear destruction rate, that’s still almost 2 million rounds fired into Seoul. 1 million dead is not an unreasonable guess.
Long range artillery are indeed very powerful … if you can fire them
Firing them require to to interdict your enemy your airspace … something the North Korean Air Force can do
Lets work it with an Historical example : Battle of Kuito Caunavale between South African DF(SADF) and Cuban/Angolan army
SADF is outnumbered but have the advantage of long range artillery, the Cuban try to destroy them with their MIG’s, the problem is that US provided Stingers and French Raffales force the MIG’s to fly far to high to effectively destroy the artillery …. so does the North Korean Army have the same capacity to interdict the ROK air-force to destroy the artillery ? Not a chance in the world
But you bring a great point : Seoul will indeed be victim of massive bloodshed unless the ROK destroy the artillery units … so it is a tricky but not an impossible task and the North Korean are utterly unable to hold the fire-rate for a day
This should be a no mistake operation or yes … near one million death could be reached but again it require North Korean to be able to hold the fire rate will under the number one spot on the ROK air-force target list
I was in a hurry in my original post, allow me to be more careful this time. There is no circumstance where NK could move south militarily wherein they would survive the end game, ergo, the only time they would do so would be when faced with imminent collapse and the goals would be to devastate SK and bugger the US; not to win but to spoil. In such a case NK casualties would be disregarded.
Seoul is the political and economic heart of SK. That it is within artillery range of NK is only descriptive of distance. As the NK build up on the border every US/SK counter move (air assets, carrier positioning) would have to be made with an eye to the idea that a misinterpretation could provoke the NK move that everyone wants to avoid. .There will be no preemptive US strike because NK now has nukes and whatever level of sophistication they may possess, or not, they certainly can be spirited to the border and set off and in that instant removing Seoul and our infantry division from the game. But I just have the intuition that instead it would be done conventionally with their army, for the pleasure of doing it with bullet and bayonet.
There will be no long bombardment because there is no need. An hour’s shelling in the middle of night followed by a huge infantry/tank assault (don’t forget numbers have a quality of their own) and they would have over run Seoul and the 2nd. If the SK army fights for Seoul, not exactly easy to get into position when a million people are fleeing south in panic in the middle of the night, but if they did get into position and fought street by street and house by house, there would be no more streets or houses by the time the battle was over: held or lost Seoul would be no more The 2nd would give good account of itself but in the end there will be more willing NK soldiers than it has bullets.
The problem you see is that inflicting casualties will not be decisive, what is decisive and neutralizes all quality superiority that we may have are the short distances to a NK “win.” Nothing will stop them from gaining Seoul and over running the 2nd and I might add that at that point the NK regime would dissolve with millions of refugees running like lemmings in all directions. There wouldn’t be anything left for the US and SK to win because everything worth while would have been lost in the first three days and the NK regime would have disappeared and it’s all refugee management.
Unlike the former Soviet Union I don’t think NK will go quietly. It’s a problem without a feasible solution.