Is Global Warming Responsible for the ‘Arab Spring’?
In a groundbreaking article titled “The Other Arab Spring” published in the New York Times on April 8, 2012, bestselling author Thomas Friedman set forth a new and remarkable explanation for violent unrest in the Arab world: global warming.
“Isn’t it interesting that the Arab awakening began in Tunisia with a fruit vendor who was harassed by police for not having a permit to sell food,” the sage writes, “just at the moment when food prices hit record highs? And that it began in Syria with farmers in the southern village of Dara’a, who were demanding the right to buy and sell land near the border, without having to get permission from corrupt security officials? And that it was spurred on in Yemen — the first country in the world expected to run out of water — by a list of grievances against an incompetent government, among the biggest of which was that top government officials were digging water wells in their backyards at a time when the government was supposed to be preventing such water wildcatting?
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All these tensions over land, water, and food are telling us something: The Arab awakening was driven not only by political and economic stresses, but less visibly, by environmental, population, and climate stresses as well.
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[W]e should all remember that quote attributed to Leon Trotsky: ‘You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.’ Well, you may not be interested in climate change, but climate change is interested in you.
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We and the Arabs need to figure out — and fast — more ways to partner to mitigate the environmental threats.
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Twenty years from now, this could be all that we’re talking about.
Now a candid reader might be excused for viewing Friedman’s examples of ordinary Arabs becoming enraged by police harassment or corrupt officials as evidence of a problem with Middle Eastern governance, rather than climate. Furthermore, to the extent they involve climate change at all, the cases of wells running dry cited above and elsewhere in Friedman’s article would be better taken as evidence of global cooling rather than global warming, since a warming planet would experience more net rainfall, rather than less. This could make Friedman’s case appear absurd.
But Thomas Friedman is a national asset, being one of the few genuine experts on everything available to the media, and it would be a shame for him to be publicly humiliated simply as a result of an inadvertent omission of such evidence as might serve to adequately defend his thesis. Indeed, in law, it is the obligation of every prosecutor to make available to the defense all evidence that might exonerate their client, regardless of how vile he may be, and that being the case, such courtesy must necessarily extend to Friedman as well. Therefore, in view of this excellent and charitable tradition, I took the liberty to assemble three top-notch witnesses to provide testimony on Mr. Friedman’s behalf.
My first witness was a leading political climatologist (PC). We met in his spacious office on the 9th floor of the new Albert Gore Institute for Political Climatology located at 300 E Street SW, Washington, D.C. I had been to these same offices before, when they housed the NASA administrator, and it was interesting to observe the change of décor. Instead of a mural depicting astronauts exploring Mars, there was now a beautifully rendered wall-sized painting of the Earth with its polar ice caps on fire. The text of our interview follows verbatim.
RZ: Sir, thank you for agreeing to discuss the Friedman thesis with me. Do you agree that global warming is the cause of the unrest we are seeing in the Arab world today?
PC: Yes, certainly. The geopolitical effects of global warming cannot be overstated.
RZ: So then what support can you provide to back up Mr. Friedman’s contention that the Arab Spring was caused by global warming?
PC: I think it is rather obvious. The Arab Spring occurred during the spring, precisely the time of year when the Northern hemisphere, within which all Arab nations, without exception, are located, warms most rapidly. Let the deniers try to contradict that. The case is closed.
RZ: But spring has occurred every year, for all of recorded history. Why would it set off revolutions in 2011, but not before?
PC: Again, the answer is clear. Spring does occur every year, and the Arab masses were able to bear it scores, even hundreds of times. Indeed, it speaks volumes for their patience and moderation that they were able to endure so many repetitions of this harsh phenomenon without any response. But one cannot expect even the most stoic of peoples to forbear answering such insults forever. The warm front that moved in during the spring of 2011 was simply the straw that broke the camel’s back.
RZ: Insults?
PC: Yes. In addition to being objectively harmful, global warming is particularly distressing to the Arab peoples because it reminds them of the Crusades, which occurred at a time when the Earth’s climate was significantly warmer than it is today. By the way, I hope you will not mention the latter fact to members of the ignorant public, as it might serve to dissipate their willingness to support strong measures to counter global warming.
RZ: Of course. [Dear readers: Please respect PC’s request and do not spread knowledge of the Medieval warm period, when global temperatures were about 2 degrees centigrade warmer than today.]
PC: And of course the original great Islamic conquests took place during the cold period that followed the fall of the Roman Empire, the time we call the Dark Ages. So naturally they remember cold climates fondly. But shortly after the Muslims arrived, the fertile farmlands of North Africa, which had served as a breadbasket for the Roman Empire, all turned into blazing desert. So I’m sure you can see how upset they must be at the prospect of global warming.
RZ: But I thought you said that occurred during a period of global cooling.
PC: Please don’t confuse the issue. Deserts are hot. Deserts are bad. Therefore hot is bad. That’s all people need to know. Yes, it is true that global cooling decreases rainfall. But if you let people know that, they will come to the conclusion that global warming is good, which completely undermines the entire purpose of the exercise. We’re not trying to get people to feel good. We’re trying to get them to take action.
RZ: I see.
PC: In any case, the desertification of North Africa can easily be accounted for by political climatology, simply by observing that while the actual global temperature may have been quite low during the period of the Islamic conquests, its rate of change, that is to say its first derivative, was strongly positive. In fact, in nearly all cases, a strong correlation between desertification and either global temperature or its first or second derivatives can readily be found. This provides a much more useful explanation than such ad hoc theories as blaming the destruction of North African and Mesopotamian agriculture on the Arab conquerors, which, in addition to being politically incorrect, provide no useful information to underscore the imperative for climate action today. But admittedly, discussions of first and second temperature derivatives may be a bit too cerebral for today’s lawmakers, so it’s best we keep things simple. Deserts are hot. Deserts are bad. Therefore activities that contribute to warming are bad and require constraint. Lay it out that way and you can’t miss.
RZ: I understand. Well, thank you for your time.
This piece is a true classic.
Oddly enough, on the face of it, Friedman is right. Off the face of it, blowing off having 7 billion people in the world rather than the 3.5 40 years ago, is like shoving 50 people in a telephone booth and then crying about telephone booth architecture. When is a drought a drought, a landslide a landslide if almost no one lived in those areas before? A tree falling in an empty forest does make a sound but it doesn’t fall on anyone.
There is not a single doubt in my mind that the Arab Spring is basically a population issue. It’s not ideological, it’s not climate, it’s people who won’t address the one issue that will make their lives better – fewer children. Well, you still have to blame something, don’t you?
85 million people in Egypt on one river. Sudan killing Sudanese for oil. Sudan will start taking Nile water soon, as sure as I’m sitting here. And then you’ll have a “climate change” war when Egypt invades the Sudan. And guess what, since Egypt has been such a nice neighbor, Israel will help build Sudanese dams. They’re already being good neighbors and building a railroad to help ease Suez traffic.
Except we are also producing more food that we were 40 years ago.
Instead of a phone booth we have a call center.
So why are food prices soaring?
Because production and transportation prices are soaring.
Why are production and transportation prices soaring?
Because energy prices are soaring.
Why are energy prices soaring?
Because of Islamist greed and “environmentalist” scams.
Cut those energy prices and food prices will drop, and the “Arab street” will be stuffed and sated. (The eco-freak hordes can just gnaw their own lips in frustration.)
And of course population growth is decreasing, heading back to or even below replacement level in many countries, including Third World countries, including those Arab and Muslim countries. It is primarily due to increasing wealth, although genetic collapse due to inbreeding is affecting Arabs and Muslims as well.
No, the problem is that instead of a Green Revolution in agriculture, we are facing a “Green” Revolution of Islamic Fundamentalism along with a “Green” Revolution of anti-industrialization. Worse, those two other “Green” Revolutions are working together in a general anti-Western, anti-freedom campaign.
If we could just get rid of those two, that “GangGreen” as it were, things would be significantly better.
Yes, BUT: As Spengler/Goldman has pointed out (about a month before he became known to most of PJM’s audience, I assume), more food may be produced, but the majority of that is being consumed in Asia, where rising living standards are literally pricing the oft-illiterate and largely-unemployable Arabs (particularly Egyptians) out of the food market. $2/day for bread doesn’t sound like a crisis unless you’re an Arab pulling in $1.02….
Who’s ‘we’ and ‘where?’ Food is obviously not distributed across the globe like oxygen. Just as obviously, some areas have outstripped their ability to feed people. Many years ago I was reading a back-packer’s guide to Indonesia and they had a short bit about how the island of Java had benefited from a new strain of rice that increased yields to the point it made a huge difference in Java’s ability to feed it’s people. The world’s headed for trouble. First up was NE Africa and Nigeria will follow as will the Middle East.
you are a smart one aren’t you
I thought I was reading Frank Fleming – very funny and spot on!
The only question is how many will read this and think ‘FIB’ is a real prince.
Too bad Thomas Friedman’s first name wasn’t William, he could go by his given acronym: WTF.
There is a regional drought. Israel has responded by building more desalination plants and improving recycling of wastewater. It is a net exporter of food and the technology to produce it under low water conditions.
Egypt is responding by destroying its economy and turning to religious fundamentalism. Right on its border is a country eager for peace and cooperation with the tools to solve its problem and it has done everything it can to destroy that relationship. Syria is responding by reducing its population by artillery which should make more food available to those who survive. The survivors have already pledged to turn the guns south at the soonest opportunity.
Let them rot.
Global warming is responsible! But not in the way the ignorant Friedman describes. The myth of global warming justified a phony need for ethanol for fuel. The conversion of corn from feed to ethanol distorted the corn market and raised prices for all agricultural products. Egypt and other Arab countries dependent on food imports were priced out of the market creating food hardships for their populations. Of course, restrictions on oil and gas production in the US did not help either.
If one can overlook the horrendous cost, it is quite ironic.
Food prices are rising and will continue to rise and this does have huge global consequences. We are going to have to learn to eat cheap.
Tom Friedman understands that what he has famously called the Flat Earth society, or something like that having to do with international trade. Prez Barack Hussein gave the world a big speech extolling the vast potential of Moslem entrepreneurialism. Vitalizing the countries of Islam won’t be easy, though. Most Islamic republics are in pretty rough economic shape. So what we should do is give ‘em a big dose of DOE venture investments. Rat there, all in a neat package, the Arab Spring is conflated with an economic recovery program and boom, we have a re-election to celebrate. And then we will see Tom at the microphone leading the cheers (although Paul will be up there giving speeches, too).
Come on Mr. Zubrin, you and I both know that the Arab spring was caused by a Zionist plot to poison the Arab water supply and to use the blood of Muslim children to make Matzoh. Not to mention our control of the Arab banking system.
Don’t you know anything?
(Actually, on a different note, I’d love to see an article from you about how space exploration has hopelessly stalled; I read your book back in the ’90s about how we could get to Mars relatively cheaply. How far away that possibility seems now.)
Can’t verify the connection between global warming and the Arab spring nightmare. But it clearly caused the endless swelling of Tom’s ego.
The concept that just wholly escapes me is why does any intelligent, erudite person consider Mr. Friedman’s writings on energy or climate? There is nothing in his background that would convince anyone who reads that he has any expertise whatsoever in these technical disciplines. Since ignorant people consider his words, and I admittedly know nothing about Arabia, perhaps they will consider my dumb thoughts.
Arabia is mostly dry. It has been dry for a long time. It, and neighboring nations are mostly populated by Muslims. This religion has factions, as many do, but the nations of Islam tend to have brutal dictatorships of one or the other sect. Religious tolerance of other factions is not wide spread, and there is lethal hatred of Christians, Jews, and other non monotheistic faiths. Today, their followers are murdered; it was not always so. With the advent of ubiquitous communication, the natives of these lands have discovered that their oppressors are not primarily Jews, or Satanic Yanks, but their own leaders. In Islam, the prime purpose of police is to kill those Muslims who disagree with the regime. If history is any guide, there will be continued slaughter until peaceful coexistence with those who believe differently emerges from the horror. But the climate will still be dry.
‘But I don’t want to go among mad people,’ said Alice. ‘Oh, you can’t help that,’ said the cat. ‘We’re all mad here.’
Thanx Mr.Zubrin for taking us down the Rabbit Hole to keep us informed on what is going on in Wonderland these days. I’m sure that Lewis Carroll would approve but maybe the Queen of Hearts, the Mad Hatter, the March Hare and the Door Mouse might object. Maybe not, they’ve probably been killed off by global warming.