Is Another Conflict Coming to Korea?
Recently, the army of the DPRK increased its military capability close to the border with South Korea:
North Korea has recently moved fighter jets near the Northern Limit Line, the de facto maritime border, and ground-to-air missiles close to Baeknyeong Island. There is speculation that it plans a minor provocation while South Korean president Lee Myung-bak visits the U.S. since any show of unity between the two allies tends to incense the North. “The North Korean military was seen moving mobile missile launchers at a ground-to-ship missile base near the NLL,” a government source said. “There’s likelihood that the North will launch a military provocation” while Lee is away. The government is closely watching movements of North Korean artillery units. An intelligence source said, “The North Korean Army is showing movements similar to those seen right before it shelled Yeonpyeong Island last year.”
The ROK has declared a high state of alert. It may have been principally in response to DPRK movements, to the visit of ROK President Lee Myung Bak, to Washington or to both. After President and Mrs. Lee were welcomed at the White House on October 13th, President Lee became the first Korean president to visit the Pentagon, where he and
Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin, presidential secretary for foreign affairs and national security Chun Young-woo, and secretary for national security strategy Kim Tae-hyo . . . met U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, and most of the chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Forces, according to Cheong Wa Dae.
They are said to have received “an unplanned briefing on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula from top military officials,” unrelated to any “special and pending issues.” It is not credible that such a briefing was unplanned and unrelated to pending issues. Is “unplanned” the same as “unexpected”?
The start of the Korean conflict, on June 25, 1950, was “unexpected” and shouldn’t have been; there were plenty of signals but we were not looking. A synopsis of the beginnings of that Korean conflict and the events leading up to it is provided here. Importantly, under President Truman’s Secretary of Defense Louis Johnson, military spending had been cut drastically:
In the early days of the Korean War, the North Korean Army, supplied with Soviet weaponry, was better armed and equipped than were U.S. troops. . . . Johnson made political hay by claiming that he had “cut the fat” from the defense budget. What he really cut was the throats of thousands of American soldiers.
Johnson ceased to be the secretary of Defense soon after the Korean Conflict broke out.
With a weak U.S. president unlikely to be reelected and a host of other foreign and domestic problems to preoccupy us, now would be an excellent time for the DPRK to invade the ROK in full force, probably better than at any previous time. Kim Jong-il almost certainly realizes that. He and his advisers must also realize that the likelihood of crippling U.S. military budget cuts is great. According to Defense Secretary Panetta,
the automatic cuts, part of a last-ditch negotiating move by President Obama and Congress, [were] both “blind” and “mindless.”
He said nearly $500 billion in defense cuts already being imposed are “taking us to the edge.” Another $500 billion would be “truly devastating,” he added.
Even under current cuts, “we’re going to have a smaller force,” Mr. Panetta said.
This apparently doesn’t worry Secretary of State Clinton, who said on October 14th that in this new age the strength of the U.S. is waning, not due to any loss of military power but due to flawed economic policies.
Blind and mindless.
The Drone King and the Queen Bee leading us into perpetual weakness, apology, reset and groveling at the feet of communist regimes around the world.
The small c communists here want to Occupy the White House, the State Department, the DOJ, the Senate…and, if they can get another term…the Supreme Court.
They want to Occupy healthcare, energy, the auto industry, banking, real estate, and the military.
They already had seized and Occupied mass media, academia and entertainment. All the “water cooler” mass information and dissemination of “facts” sources.
Our power, influence and standing is waning by design, not happenstance.
Rampant, unchecked leftism is burrowing a hole in our ability to defend ourselves, our allies and the free world. Leftists are helping leftists. Revolutionaries are helping revolutionaries.
Weakening America from the inside, tearing apart our wealth, our military and our borders and our security…makes the world a very interesting place at the moment. Led by the weak, the traitorous and the disingenuous…we are on the precipice of darkness, a coming eclipse of all ambient light…only staged light will remain. We will soon live in ignorance and fear, I’m afraid…cowered into a corner and bereft of truth, …tossed crumbs of “truthiness”, because that is all we deserve.
But mostly…lies and distortion. Propaganda. Maybe even some nice state music.
Living in the darkness, sealed off from truth, under the thumb of leftism.
Positively Orwellian. What will we become of us if we continue to be deprived in this way? Who will we be?
Why….mindless and blind, of course.
Just like our dear leaders.
All too true. On the other hand, The Hill’s statement that our influence is waning due to failed economic policies could be her attempting to put some distance between herself and The One, possibly preparatory to a Presidential run of her own- yet again. (Imagine her and Joe Biden debating each other. Acckk!, as Bill the Cat would say.)
I’m quite sure that the “progressive” leadership in Washington dreams of a “united Korea”- but they want it united under Communist rule, because they still have this romantic vision of “proletarian Utopia”, never mind that it never squares with the facts.
The one thing I’m reasonably sure of is that no matter what idiocies and perfidies U.S. progressives inflict upon them… the people of South Korea will not meekly surrender to Lil’ Kim. They will fight. And whatever happens, it’s unlikely that the nitwit gastronome in Pyongyang will be able to profit from his actions.
clear ether
eon
“I’m quite sure that the “progressive” leadership in Washington dreams of a “united Korea”- but they want it united under Communist rule, because they still have this romantic vision of “proletarian Utopia”, never mind that it never squares with the facts.”
Obama & Co. are ruining this country, but statements like the above are so over the top that they feed the leftist need to portray conservatives as nut jobs. This is the land of conspiracy theories gone wild. Get a grip!
Over the top? Really? In what way, exactly?
Are there not Communists in the WH? Did not Obama have Communists on his staff? (Van Jones, Anita Dunn, others) Did he not pal around with Communists when he was younger, as he stated in his book? Did he not attend a Liberation Theology church for 20 years, a “faith” which is just Communism dressed up in Christian clothes?
As there are Communists in the WH, would not those “worthies” desire exactly as proreason stated? Of course. Communists, by definition, are International Socialists. Like the Islamists, they dream of worldwide conquest. Only in that way could Communism succeed. They say so themselves.
So, I ask you again, what is so over the top about it? It is self-evident.
Keep in mind that you are dealing with academic radical wannabees who have never really worked in the real world, and who only associate with people in a very restricted sociopolitical context. Namely, the faculty lounge and cocktail parties. These are people who went to the same schools, studied under the same professors, and generally ended up with the same theories and dogmas. In short, the result is groupthink on steroids- which probably explains why they can often quote Marx from memory without even realizing who they’re quoting.
These academic types view “progressivism” as a basically proletarian form of governance, with communism as a subset of same. Their ideal may be a sort of European Social Democratic rule, or even an out-and-out socialist state run by the “enlightened elite’”, but the one thing they cannot abide is a state run on anything like a capitalistic economic system. They believe that such a system is inherently dangerous, as there is too much freedom for individuals to make choices that the “elite’” do not agree with. Which, in their minds, equals an inherent inequality which they find offensive. Of course, in their ideal world, those like themselves (i.e., the “ruling class”), would have privileges denied to the less enlightened, on the grounds that they have the superior wisdom to run everything, and so deserve the perks.
As such, South Korea’s fundamentally capitalistic society, with a democratically-elected government that is not necessarily composed of “right-minded progressives”, is something they are not too comfortable with. They’d far rather see Korea end up like Vietnam, with a near-term communist “triumph” which they believe will eventually evolve into a more “Europeanized” social-democratic model. With power vested in “the right people”, as opposed to just the local equivalent of “every Tom, Dick, and Harry”.
As for what Vietnam, Cambodia, etc., went through getting to this supposedly “ideal” social-democratic state, and what a “united Korea” would look like afterward, they’ll just shrug and quote Napoleon. The bit about “you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs”.
Concern for people, except as parts of “groups”, has never been a hallmark of “progressive” thought.
/just saying
clear ether
eon
It isn’t a bug – it’s a feature. Obama, Hillary, and the rest of the administration are selling us out to our enemies. They mean to do as much damage as they can before we can figure out a way of stopping them.
No wonder I’m a secessionist. It may be the “nuclear option” but it is the only way of getting ourselves out of the maw of the ever-growing federal beast.
Question:
Do the Norks have functional tactical nuclear weapons now? If they do, they could neutralize the ROK’s conventional capability in a matter or hours. By functional, I also mean that the weapons are small enough to be delivered by conventional means (aircraft, heavy artillery).
Unknown. At this point it is not even 100% certain whether the Norks have tested a functioning nuclear weapon, or got a fizzle yield, or faked it with conventional explosives plus a release of radioactive leftovers from their uranium enrichment program. Given how long it took the US to get from Fat Man and Little Boy to tactical nuclear artillery rounds it seems implausible to me that they’re at that level of development yet, but I could, of course, be wrong.
A few other points:
The ROKs do NOT want unification. They did up until the late 1980s. They saw the Bush Administration’s empty promises of aid to Germany to help them reintegrate the backwards, crumbling, poisoned East and this changed a lot of attitudes. Even as the Norks shell them and kidnap their citizens, they trip over their own feet running to pour more money and food aid into propping up the Norks, and in every negotiation it’s well known how much effort the ROKs put into sabotaging and undercutting every attempt to put pressure on the DPRK regime.
The ROKs don’t want to have to clean up the gigantic toxic waste dump that sixty years of Soviet-style industrial development has turned most of the countryside into–estimates are that it is an order of magnitude worse than East Germany or Poland was. Twenty years later the forests of Eastern Europe are still full of stunted, mutated trees and brown half-dead scrub like the Land of Mordor due to all the poisonous chemicals the Russians just dumped into the soil and the economies of the entire planet put together could not afford to even begin any kind of attempt at a cleanup.
Nor do they wish to feed the twenty-five million starving refugees who would immediately flood across the DMZ if the barbed wire were taken down.
“They saw the Bush Administration’s empty promises of aid to Germany to help them reintegrate the backwards, crumbling, poisoned East and this changed a lot of attitudes.”
So how, exactly should that have been done? Please include all problems, foreseen and otherwise, include all political factions, social woes and monetary concerns. Don’t forget to reference heavily for all things cited as facts.
“The quickest way to criticism is to take action; ANY action.” Eisenhower.
For a start, breaking promises is a bad, bad habit and we really need to stop doing that. Nothing is so detrimental to the power and influence a nation can exercise around the world as a lack of credibility.
If the Bush Administration had no intention to assist with the costs associated with German reunification, they should have been up front about it.
It would have been a bad idea to give money to Germany to unify.
http://www.foothill.fhda.edu/divisions/unification/econ.html
Seven years after the wall came down, unemployment in the eastern portion of the nation was at 25% and Helmut Kohl just kept throwing money at it. Government make-work projects and so on. Bush, not a stellar purveyor of the possible, probably spoke prematurely before smarter people could tell him it’s a wast of money.
But compared to Captain Zero’s monumental lies and relative ease with which he tells them, Bush is an amateur and I simply think he spoke out of ignorance and realized the reality of it some time later. Seldom, if ever, do politicians apologize for making false promises. It’s always seen as a sign of weakness.
So, although Bush should NOT have promised US support for the unification of Germany, it’s good that US taxpayers didn’t foot the bill for it after all.
Today, Germany is one of the few economies in Europe doing ok. It’s struggling, to be sure, but all the other nations are looking to Germany for handout after handout. If they were financially buried by unification, they wouldn’t even be remotely interested.
“They saw the Bush Administration’s empty promises of aid to Germany to help them reintegrate the backwards, crumbling, poisoned East…..”
The “empty promises” of aid were given to reassure the Russians that the reunited Germany would be under American control and not transform into another potential world disaster waiting to happen. The fact that Bush did not follow through was also of secondary importance to the French and British, who with memories of WWII still fresh in the minds of their leaders, were also concerned. American prestige did not suffer in that instance. And let’s not forget German pride. They would not want to be in debt to the US for various reasons.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/51636/josef-joffe/putting-germany-back-together-the-fabulous-bush-and-baker-boys
Something I forgot to add to my comments, above, is that the US is already financially subsidizing Germany by maintaining troops in that country, thus freeing the Germans of having to maintain a full strength military, at great expense.
Tne first person I urge hung is the teachers Union President.
SG-1 We are discussing George H. W. Bush 41 and not GWB 43. GB41 fought a war with Iraq, the Berlin wall came down, the Soviet Union fell and George H.W. Bush was run out of Washington on a network news van in that order. He never had a chance to make good on any promises to Germany because he was swept from office by a torrent of hate coming from the communist media in New York much less than two years after making those promises.
Bill Clinton like Hillary has never made a promise that he kept. He certainly was not going to keep promises made by the United States. The deals to buy the loose Nukes in the former soviet republics had to sit for George W. Bush 43 to make good on them, which he did. Fortunately as there were hundreds of nuclear weapons we bought from Uzbekistan, Kurdistan, Georgia (Asia) and the Ukraine that sat while Bill Clinton fiddled for eight years.
Some did not get collected until 2006 after we had collected Saddam Hussein’s 550 tons of Uranium from Iraq. Lucky Saddam bought parts for nuclear weapons, he could have bought the ready to use item if he were a better shopper.
I don’t think that DRNK as reliable nuclear weapons the estimate of the SS18 warheads was that half of them would not have gone off in a nuclear war with the United States but a year of upgrade and matinée could have fixed that.
It is quite likely that there is monumental stupidity in the North Korean military forces. Why would the military forces be different from the rest of their society? It is however poor form to ask an ally like South Korea to bet their lives on someone else being stupid. We have to proceed on the assumption that North Korea will attack and will have planes and missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. We have to deploy the latest patriot missiles and help with the best anti air-craft and if China doesn’t like such aircraft being so close tell them to do something about North Korea.
Yes, I’m aware of that, that you’re referring to Bush 1. I was active-duty military when all this was going on. Sorry, by making the comparison to Obama’s lies, I led you to believe that I believed you were referring to Bush 2.
Easy mistake to make.
But at the end of the day, it would’ve been bad for the US to financially support the unification of Germany.
Oh I think The Obama and Bush did more than back the promises. Just not as soon or under the same promise. They gave the German banks over 65 Billion U.S. tax $$ just a couple of years ago and The Obama and his coven continue to give more worthless $$ to Europe. Once the fun starts it is hard to stop.
There has been lots of speculation on the point. The DPRK has successfully tested one or more nuke devices and seems to be getting ready to test more. The DPRK has successfully tested missiles. However, I don’t think it has successfully mounted a nuclear device in a missile and test fired it; that would be difficult to keep secret.
Does the DPRK now have the capability of delivering a nuke via aircraft? That seems more likely but also more problematic. An aircraft attempting to deliver a heavy nuke weapon to, for example, Seoul would have to evade ROK and US aircraft and missiles between the border and Seoul, a distance of about thirty miles. Also, the readiness of DPRK pilots and their aircraft is questionable.
How about a dirty nuke device, delivered perhaps by submarine to Seoul’s Port of Inchon? A submarine would have difficulty navigating the Flying Fish Channel to get to Inchon; the channel is narrow, twisty and shallow, with exposed mud flats except during quite variable periods of high tide. The mixed tides there are difficult to calculate and often calculations turn out to be wrong. There was a one, or at best two, day window for General MacArthur’s September 15, 1950 invasion because that was the day of highest tides — roughly thirty feet AMSL – during the lunar month. The DPRK was given no warning, did not expect an invasion at Inchon and was unprepared to resist.
There are other possibilities: DPRK agents/sympathizers are present in the ROK, some in the military; they are being ferreted out but there will always be some. There are also DPRK sympathizers in the civilian population. With luck, some of them might be able to get a dirty nuke device into the ROK and take it to Seoul.
How about delivery of a dirty nuke device to Pusan, the metropolitan area population of which exceeds four million people; Pusan is also South Korea’s biggest port and the fifth biggest port in the world. Pusan would probably be an easier target than Seoul.
As noted in the article, North Korea is a black hole from which very little light escapes. We probably have less reliable information about the North’s military capabilities than we do for any other country. That does not, of course, mean that we can ignore the DPRK with impunity. The problems one does not expect and for which one is unprepared are the most difficult to overcome when they arise, as they often do. I don’t think a nuclear attack by the DPRK is likely. However, conventional missiles raining on Seoul would cause lots of destruction and many deaths. The US military forces, dependents and civilian contractors in Seoul and elsewhere would not be immune. If that happened, it seems unlikely that we could avoid serious involvement in another Korean conflict. The presence of US personnel probably increases the danger of that, but even if we had no military presence the risk would not likely be substantially diminished.
What’s even worse is that, even though the US is still looked upon as the world’s police force, both liberal and centrist politicians in the US have a complete, knee-quaking fear of victory over an oppressive power.
It’s interesting that while the left is claiming credit for offing Gaddafi, they did little to nothing to actually make it happen. It was the French air attack that precipitated Mr Ugly’s convoy demise and the Libyan rebels took over. The French intel probably had no idea who or what was in that convoy. But if they did, the US had nothing to do with it.
But ad regards Korea, let’s just entertain the notion that the NORK’s decide to mount an invasion. They have far inferior, though dangerous forces to do it but Captain Zero and his gum-chewers would look at it and not commit US forces to the fray until it was obvious they had to. We have two airbases in South Korea still. But the Magic Negro actually has no interest in Korea, is completely ignorant of its political history, except from what he learned from watching M*A*S*H on television.
So he’ll pool together his “brain-trust”..all 5 working gray matter cells of it and they will decide on….a very Johnsonian “war of attrition” where the US will gradually upscale forces to meet the NORKS, thinking falsely that they will eventually give up. When China rejoins, then it will become 1969 all over again. I realize I’m mixing apples and oranges in terms of commie-conflicts but the Chinese learned that they can attack the US covertly and the US won’t say anything about it.
Plus, the Chinese, controlling their output of products as they can, will probably put some pressure on the US by not shipping certain products to the US.
Meanwhile, the master tacticians at the White Hut will incorrectly assess the situation and come up with yet another political way to wage war. It will be every bit as bad as any of the others but will be easily recognized in that it will not include the words “victory” or “win” or anything having to do with destroying the NORK’s ability to make war. (That would be rude)
So, if and when it happens, there is only one guarantee; That the politicians will make it worse. The military is, like all things to them, a political means to an end, not a weapon to be used to protect those in danger.
The idea that the Kim regime would out-and-out invade the South is pure fantasy. They know perfectly well that doing so would be their end-game.
Actually, that’s not really altogether true.
Lil’ Kim’s military staff is quite possibly aware of the correlation of forces- that is, assuming that their analysts are telling them the truth, as opposed to what they want to hear. Dictatorships tend to be staffed by people who know exactly how much factual data won’t get them ‘dobe-walled, and who stay within those limits with near-religious fervor.
But if history is any guide, The Big Little Boss himself is probably being told that South Korea is a paper tiger, and that once his valiant forces cross the DMZ, the people will rise up to support him in a true romantic proletarian revolution.
Most dictators are delusional by nature, and Lil’ Kim is no exception. He, like many such, is pretty well convinced that he is a living god (having inherited it from his father, Kim il-Sung). And anyone around him who wants to keep his job- and his head- won’t tell him otherwise.
As to the rationality of going to war, the decision to do so is almost never rational. It is generally made on the basis of emotion, power lust, and “gut instincts”, exactly none of which are much affected by what the old Red Army staff used to call “objective conditions”. War between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany was a bad idea for both sides in the summer of 1941; that didn’t stop Hitler from launching an invasion of Russia just as Stalin was preparing to invade Germany. In each case, each leader had decided that he couldn’t stand sharing a continent with the other one. So one of them had to go.
North Korea will invade the South when two things happen; when Lil’ Kim wants it, and he thinks he can get away with it. Facts do not enter into a calculation like this, when they are made by somebody who has lived in a fantasy world his entire life.
The fecklessness of the present U.S. administration just makes it more likely that he’ll believe he can pull it off.
clear ether
eon
“It was the French air attack that precipitated Mr Ugly’s convoy demise and the Libyan rebels took over.”
The latest rumour is that a NATO SF team wounded Gaddafi in both legs and left him in the ditch before calling the glorious peoples revolutionary vollunteers to capture him.
If the Norks invade, they lose all the goodies from us that their perpetual ‘bad boy’ bully behavior gets them. Therefore, such an invasion is illogical, and unlikely.
On the other hand, Japan attacked Russia in 1904, and that was illogical. By the time TR pulled their fat outta the fire, and saved their ‘face’, they were bankrupt. But then, Russia was in the throws of revolution, so that didn’t matter too much. Had Russia had more internal stability, what happened to Japan in 1945 would have happened to them in 1905 (or ’06, whenever the Russians got around to crushing them).
For that matter, Japan’s attack on us in 1941 was insane (one reason Kimmel and Short were so unprepared). We just can’t expect logical behavior from these idiots today any more than we could from despots of the past.
Based on that understanding, now, indeed, would be the time for the NORKS to attack, and Iran, too. (I.e., before November, 2012, while the Bamster is still in ‘command’ and we our totally out of Iraq.)
I ask why our Repub candidates aren’t talking about this? At least reviewing it? Saying at the least, “Wake up, people! This could happen at any time!”
Nuts. Varus cannot give us back our legions, for they were wiped out in the impenetrable forests of D.C.
An Préachán
“…such an invasion is illogical, and unlikely.”
I don’t know why people insist on bringing logic into it when discussing the throught processes of the North Korean leadership cadre. We’re talking about a nightmarish, Orwellian state ruled by a man revered as a living god, whose stunted, starving people eat the bark from trees and sometimes each other while Dear Leader dines on caviar. So please, claiming an invasion won’t happen because such an invasion would defy rationality, well, defies rationality.
So of course North Korea will invade. We’re just not sure when.
So we are speaking harsh words to an increasingly pressured North Korea, under our leader who has previously spoken thusly with Dictators – leading to chaos, rioting, and their fall. Oh, and as we are increasingly cutting our military to the bone.
Yes, in a sane world, this is what I’d to to Kim Il alrighty.
There is just an air of unreality by these people. Full-blown disconnect between words and actions and consequences.
It is time for the ROK to assume full responsibiltiy for its own security requirements. It is more than capable of creaming the north if it steps out of line. It does not need The US to protect it and we don’t need US boys and girls dieing needlessly because the North’s leader is a paranoid nut job.
We need to rethink defense policy. We can’t afford most of our commitments. We are broke thanks to all the progressive spending of the last 75 years.
It is stupid for us to think that we can take a bunch of people who can’t even read and turn them into Jeffersonian republicans. We need to bring our troops home from bases around the world and retool our military so that it becomes even more agile and lethal. Someone explain to me why we are subsidizing the defense of Europe, so they can live their soft socialized existence at our expense? That’s a US tax payers job? I think not.
If we are attacked again, we need to utterly destroy our opponent as quickly and cheaply as possible, and leave them to pick up the shattered pieces of their country. Our message needs to become “Don’t f&$# with us, we will make it so that your country is completely destroyed and you will spend the rest of your days in misery just trying to exist.”
The ROK needs to defend its self against the North. Our Boys and girls need to come home.
Samizdat
Your comment is right on. Get the hell out of places we are not wanted, not needed and can’t afford to be there. But make sure the politicians do not take the savings and spend it on “saving jobs”. Maximize stealth, missle defense, submarine warfare, drones and any other battlefield superiority spending. But the word has to go out that we will not mess around with diplomacy. You commit an act of agression against this country and you will have all sorts of hell at your doorstep, fast.
Not too long ago, I would have agreed with you and Samiz. These days I look at our presence in SK as a foothold. If one is going to deliver hell, one must have depots to deliver it from.
I am inclined to agree with this argument but we should realize that the proliferation of nuclear weapons changes everything. Boots on the ground will be necessary in any engagement to make sure there are no WMDs left laying about to be unleashed later. We lost a few thousand brave souls in Iraq on a wild goose chase but nevertheless a necessary goose chase because the results of even a few such weapons existing and falling into the wrong hands would have cost us many more thousands lives.
The Left has sanctioned terrorism as a legitimate means of attack. The Palestinians have less claim to a country than any group that has ever taken up arms and they have committed more atrocities for less reason than any other movement in history yet the left continues to back them. The fallout from this is that we must expect to be hit with a nuke. There is no moral sanction against it. There is no taboo to be broken that terrorists do not already break every day.
So while it is lovely to say that we should conduct all operations as was done in Libya the result will be lethal arms falling into the hands of those who would do us harm and the regimes that succeed the ones we destroy may be even more inimical to our interests. Libya’s anti-aircraft missiles would be devastating were even a few to smuggled into the US.
This is what we have to accept if we gut our military and engage in stand-off operations. It is not so easy a choice as it first seems. Especially when you realize that most of our allies lack our competence and will. The French will not suffer from these anti-aircraft missiles going abroad and the South Koreans will not bear the entire bill for any screw-ups they have either.
The missing key in all of this are the Chinese. What do we do with them when one of their client states starts a war? How do they react? Do they expect us to continue trading as usual? Do they intervene by invading Korea from the north? What do they gain by propping up such a resource sink as the Norks?
The Chicoms are playing chess, and we’re playing checkers.
The DPRK is less of a resource sink for them this way than it would be if they had to occupy it, which they would not hesitate to do if the DPRK regime collapsed. This is because the alternative would be reunification with a victorious ROK. That is unacceptable to them, because a victorious ROK would be pro-US and almost certainly retain and maybe even increase the number of US bases and US troops on its soil. And this time they’d be just across the Yalu River. For the Chicoms this is absolutely unthinkable. Stalin and Mao were willing to intervene and risk World War III to prevent this outcome once before.
Old Marine,
First, thanks for your service. I have three family members who served in the Corp.Second, those writing here who keep coming up with reasons for us to shoulder the burden are not recognizing reality. We are spread way too thin. We are setting ourselves up for failure. We need to regroup, retool, and redeploy to home. I am not advocating for disarmament. I want our military to become more lethal and more deployable. If we are attacked we rain down hell and we don’t rebuild our crushed opponent.
The world needs to learn not to F$%@* with us, period. The mistake we made in Iraq was stupid and short sighted. We can no more change the nature of those people, than they could change our nature. It is arrogant for us to think they need Jeffersonian republicanism when they don’t have a clue as to what it is.
As for the Afghanistan conflict, we should have concentrated our resourses there after 9/11 and in the African theaters where the al queda forces sought refuge. We should have acted in such a way that the world would have trembled at our justifiable anger and our ability to track, hunt, and close with the enemy and send them to see Allah. And then pack up and leave, after telling the remaining folks that if it happens again, we will be back.
Why it is our responsibility to police the world is beyond me. It took me a long time to figure this out, I have an international relations background, but I have finally realized we don’t have the resources to continue to do this, and even if we did, it is not our responsibility to save others from themselves.
The ROK is responsible for its own security. We need to take care of ourselves.They need to stop relying on us. Same with Tiawan, Europe,the Saudis etc.
SoKo. It’s what’s for dinner.
This impending crises seems very much a product of what is become a significant problem in our universities; a malignancy that has pervasively damaged our government, our global standing and our economy.
In the “soft sciences” the cultures of scholarship and “trustee competence” have essentially collapsed. What is left has morphed into a postmodern institutional form of very expensive votech schools for perpetual government employment. DoS is a wasteland of incompetence and self-absorbtion. Many of the other agencies and senior leadership positions are suffering the same toxic blight of the otherwise unemployable “elite” technican-class of the postmodern university.
Our nation via its hollow media is subjected to an endless procession of NGO, Journalistic and Foundation “superpersons” who speak their personal opinions via the impressive branded voice of institutionally-purchased credentials funneling the result straight into their own pocket. These “superpersons” are structurally corrupting our leadership, policy and government. They have no economy or product other than to intervene or bend government policies and actions to their pet opinions or the financial or political motives of their clientele. What is not cartelization is syndical. Obama has made the perfect poster boy for this cultural phenomenon. This isn’t America. It’s Chicago – nationwide.
In more ways than one, the failure of our once great university cultures has caused our society to drift from meritocracy to a “mediocracy”. The great social cost of the affirmative action experiment has finally begun to present in the form of failed government and failed governance, failed stewards and failed leadership rapt with the profits yielded from their duplicity. There is no more apparent scandalous example than the condition of our K-12 institutions, themselves a direct product of their “superior institutions”.
Our nation used to thrive on the dynamics of meritocracy. No more. By invention of a rhetorical contrivance called “social justice” they dumbed the entire system down to officially impose an official Phrenology as national policy, dismantling the meritocracy that had been built. “Equality” meant all would now be mediocre.
What operates as administrative academia today borders on collective psychoses. Guilt-mongering is the new academic economy; that and endless conditioning in self-effacing behavior to stay the return of critical thought and honest, unbridled discussion.
These institutions are all non-voting alien persons under the law. They have ZERO business clogging the portals of our government and legislatures. Yet, this is increasingly the goal because there is NO EMPLOYMENT for prolifically degreed postmodern coastal ignoratti but for government programs.
There have always been morons and thieves in government, but I have never seen the likes of the duplicity, hubris and brazen self-interest that permeates the failed leadership culture dominating our trustee government positions of today.
Very scary stuff. Obama is serving it up. They really don’t care. Your point about NoKo seeing a historic opportunity is dead on.
SoKo. It’s what’s for dinner.
I agree with what you are stating. S.Korea has come a long way in economic strength over the past few decades. They can shoulder the cost of conventional defense.
I might make one allowance for a last ditch survival move should the Norks send masses of troops and armor through the Chorwan corridor. The well selected placement of one tactical nuclear weapon dropped into that corridor (on the S. Korean side of the border) would be a most cost effective way of stopping any massive invasion from the north. So I would recommend providing a few tactical nucs to the South to provide some extra punch and intimidation factor.
“Dear Leader” obviously thinks he can nuke South Korea and get away with it. He knows, or should have been told, that we can turn NoKo into a “glow in the dark” example any time we want. On the other hand, he also knows that the South Korean Government doesn’t want us to do that since it has dreams of reuniting the peninsula under a democratic regime…and it doesn’t want to have to pay too much to restore the North and repair the South.
This is one of those “what do they REALLY think in the middle of the night” questions. Fact is, absolutely, the ROK desires unification as much as the NorKs, but they also saw the titanic financial costs to Germany of unification with the East. News flash: that was pocket change. That was couch cushion coinage compared to what it is going to cost South Korea to unify with a shattered North. Fortunately, the Germans had all of Europe and an enormously pleased United States to help out in the afterglow of Cold War victory. Now, South Korea will require far MORE resources to unify. And what does the ROK realize in the middle of the night?
News flash, folks…… no one…. NO one….. NO ONE!!!!!!… has ANY money to bail Northern Koreans out of the cesspool created by the satanic demons that have been running the place. NO ONE!!! Ya think WE do? Europe?? Japan?? And if China even tries (hell if they invade and occupy, stopping at the 38th parallel, our official diplomatic response should be “Hmmm, that’s interesting.” The ugliest Chinese occupation imaginable could not begin to match the Kim’s slaughterhouse, and I think it would pop the Chinese financial bubble as well. And I think they know that, and would not do it.)
The Korean peninsula is an ultimate “interesting times” place. If we “lose” to the Norks, it would be a victory of Lucifer and Beazulbub upon this earth. If we “win”, there will be virtually NOTHING we can actually DO for those people to help them. Nothing.
They are well and truly accursed.
Obama’s preferred modus operandi against his foreign enemies seems to be the Chicago drive-by assassination, except he uses spec ops and drones for the dirty work. Not a bad idea at all, but one wonders whether the same trick can work against Kimmy boy.
Once again the war drums are beating in the American World State, another costly in blood and money military adventure is all we need. Have we not suffered enough in the last century led by degenerate presidents whose greatest wish was to send American young men to die on foreign fields; for people who would eventually become free and prosperous and full of hatred for Americans. It is reported that in South Korea the statue of General Douglas McArthur at Inchon scene of his strategic strike at the Communist North, this statue has to have a 24/7 guard around it to protect it from South Korean extremists, the very people our soldiers died to keep free. Time to bring all the troops home; let other people solve their own problems. Ron Paul is looking better and better.
Nah, Ron Paul isn’t looking better and better, and all the lipstick in the world won’t make this pig attractive. You Paulistas sound more and more like LaRouche devotees every day.
@ Doug Loss
Tell us why, Doug. Johann agrees with Ron Paul that we shouldn’t be shouldering the cost of defending the whole world. Our young men shouldn’t have to die fighting other people’s wars, except when America is in danger. Tell us why that’s wrong. Don’t just call him a pig with lipstick.
There’s nothing new under the sun, so I suppose there will always be American isolationists such as Ron Paul and his true believing acolytes, convinced all will be rainbows and sunshine if we just minded our own business, stayed within our borders, and let the outside world descend into barbarism and bloodshed. We’ve seen it before, prior to World War II, when our military was the size of Switzerland’s, and now, I guess we get to see it again.
News, you cult-like members of the Ron Paul Fan Club: victory in WWII was a near-run thing. We very nearly lost and the reason we very nearly lost was our lack of preparedness and strategic foresight–and that lack of preparedness was the direct result of politicians exactly like Ron Paul in outlook and philosophy. Even now, forces are at work, some communist, some Islamic, some–like Russia–purely nationalistic, and these powers, for lack of a better word, are eager to do what, at various times, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and Soviet Russia attempted to do. They want dominance. They want hegemony. And you’re telling me a static, Fortress America defense is the proper counter to their strategic aims? Please.
The NorKs will herd their starving civilians into the wire and mines of the DMZ hoping to delay the ROKS return fire or at least soak up the casualties for the NorK military units following behind.
Kim doesn’t care about his followers and this would cause a bad media image to be trasmitted world wide for folks to want to shut the war down for the RoKs.
Imagine the MSM reporting the RoKs firing on thousands of helpless civilians, babies, women and old people getting massacred by the RoKs?
I can hear the MSM now!
I agree that this is a very likely outcome. The Norks did the exact same thing in 1950, and worse. In Taejon they massacred between five and ten thousand civilians and stuffed their bodies into the town’s cisterns, with the deliberate intent to drive terrified survivors south to clog the roads ahead of the American advance. At No Gun Ri thousands of NKPA troops dressed in civilian clothes, in violation of all recognized laws of war, and mixed in with refugees in order to infiltrate around a US roadblock. In dozens of battles large and small the Norks drove civilians ahead of them to clear minefields. And now, we are told, the Norks have chemical, biological, and possibly nuclear weapons.
If war breaks out, a world grown jaded on the horrors of the Third World is going to see just how bad things can get.
“I can hear the MSM now!”
Yes.
“It’s all Bush’s fault.”
It’s breath taking how many adults believe that just pulling the covers over our heads and wishing real hard will cause the boogie man too depart into the ether. And to be clear this is not directed in any way towards “eon” who I always find spot on, and in this entry maybe more so. Cynicism is not an answer to our worst fears. The Korean people and the peninsula they call home is our home in so many ways. A bully lurks in their midst and my instinct is to protect them more not less. The Wikipedia entry for South Korea is so insipid, it’s as if someone narrated the entry to devalue the Korean people and their history. The Korean saga that is shared with America is staggeringly more deeper and fruitful than what we could ever historically conjure with say Japan. Read the pages of Lauren Hillenbrand’s bestseller “Unbroken”. The Korean people suffered side by side with the Americans who populated the POW and slave labor facilities throughout the peninsula. Which they managed to “test” out prior to the USA entering into WWII. Wow, I’m getting bad flashbacks of that awful liberal condescension that permeated every episode of the television show “MASH”. Were a principal character was determined to escape back to America and invent the acronym LGBT and sew those initials into his underwear. He enjoyed knitting.
North Korea is certainly a mess, but I doubt that China will get involved at the level the US would like it to get involved for a number of reasons.
First, China doesn’t want a war between North and South Korea since South Korea is a major trading power with China’s capitalist/socialist hybrid economy with no evidence that China wants to go to war with any country, which would, as Andrew X (comment above) predicted, “pop the Chinese financial bubble” in addition to possibly destroying a lot of the infrastructure China has built the last thirty years to improve the quality of life in China.
Why would China invade North Korea as Andrew X says? There is nothing to gain there unless North Korea has billions of gallons of oil under the ground, which it doesn’t.
In fact, if China offered no support to North Korea and another war broke out there, it wouldn’t be long before North Korea would be castrated and unable to support its army in the field. Without a very fast sweeping victory over South Korea, which is highly unlikely, any potential invasion would quickly be mired and stopped under the onslaught of America’s superior air power from Japan, Guam and other Western Pacific air bases the US maintains in addition to South Korea’s airforce, which is almost equal to North Korea’s in size but superior in quality and training.
Although North Korea has a huge military industrial complex for a nation of its size, how long would it take for advanced US weapons such as smart bombs, drones and cruise missiles to destroy that industry? If North Korea were to use any of its nuclear weapons, the US has enough nuclear firepower to retaliate and leave the North a molten slagheap.
The CIA says North Korean oil production is ranked 118 in the world–that is low and the country exports no oil but imports oil to meet its needs. As for proven oil reserves, the country is ranked 148 compared to the countries of the world with little to no natural gas consumption.
The only punch North Korea would have would be an early one that would quickly fizzle into some sort of trench warfare killing millions of civilians on both sides.
Source – https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html
Here is also an interesting piece titled, “The Mythical North Korean Threat”
“The entire 700,000 man South Korean active duty army can be devoted to the defense of Seoul. The modern South Korean army is backed by over 5,000,000 well-trained reservists who can be called to duty in hours. South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year. South Korean military equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean military equipment is over 30 years old and much is inoperable due to a lack of maintenance. If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacity and $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Korea has no industry and no money. As a result, South Korea is roughly five times more powerful than North Korea.”
In addition, “North Korean soldiers no longer train for war, but spend most hours harvesting crops, while their old aircraft and ancient tanks sit idle from a lack of fuel and parts. In 1999, Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress that discipline in the North Korean army had collapsed, and that refugees report soldiers stealing food at gunpoint. Nighttime satellite pictures reveal few lights in the North because of a lack of electricity.”
Source: http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm
Want more proof, let’s see what Global Firepower.com has to say.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/
South Korea is listed as having the seventh most powerful military force on the planet. North Korea, on the other hand, is listed as twenty-two (22).
South Korea — http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=South-Korea
North Korea — http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=North-Korea
In fact, when we compare the military power of North Korea to South Korea, we quickly see the gap. Click on the following link and see for yourself.
North Korea is incapable of supporting a long-term war, and the Chinese are too much into the growth of building an American style consumerism lifestyle to throw it all away to support a dictator such as North Korea’s.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp
Meanwhile, back at the ranch,
The Kim dynasty will do all that it can do — as it has previously done — to divert any food supplies to the military and to others who support the regime. Now, in preparation for the great leap forward into an “unprecedented era of prosperity” next year, as much as possible will be diverted to preparing for that as well. And, of course, for any military adventures south of the DMZ.
I’d ask what these people think, but that would assume a fact not in evidence.
Ms. Amos made the remarks noted in the NPR article linked above from North Korea. Here are some she made upon arrival in Beijing.
These remarks seem to go beyond those made in North Korea or, if she said similarly pointed things while there, it would be interesting to learn why they were not reported in that context as well. Maybe it’s just an NPR thing.
North Korea’s hunger problem, if it is actually viewed as such by the Kim regime, will be difficult to resolve if its principal if not exclusive focus continues to be on the military and other supporters of regime security.
What rot. North Korea does not want the US to leave the peninsula. They like things exactly as they are.
I am surprised that with all the comments that none have addressed the lethal reality of the NORK’s HARTs.
HARTs are hardened artillery sites, virtually impervious to counter battery artillery and air attack. Conventional tube artillery capable of striking south beyond Seoul, as well as bunkered theatre artillery missiles/rockets, these are difficult to neutralize NORK assets capable of destroying the ROK capital city and the US and ROK military within range.
This costly infrastructure has been constructed and enhanced for decades….and is more offensive than defensive…the perfect opening gambit for the 2nd Korean War.
Good point. Here is a 1986 article on North Korean HARTs. Strangely, it characterizes them as defensive in nature. Here is an apparently more recent article on the North Korean HARTs; it suggests NK strategy for attacks on the South.
I doubt those HARTs can stand up to FAE bombs. Under the right conditions a FAE can cause death & destruction comparable to a tactical nuke, but without the radiation.
South Korea is now the world’s 12th largest economy while North Korea is very poor (hard to get actual numbers on North Korea). The South Korean military is well funded and is equipped with almost state-of-the-art hardware. Thanks to universal military service the South Korea army is large and enjoys popular support. While it is true that North Korea could inflict major damage on Seoul using long-range artillery and missile attack, the North Korea regime would not survive the counter-attack from South Korea.
There is NO rational basis to assert that North Korea will launch an attack on the South which would result in the destruction of the North’s government. The political leaders in the North are fat and happy. To be sure, the vast majority of the North Korean population is poor and hungry, but the elite live high on the hog. Why should they give that up? What possible gain would there be for an all-out war on the South? There is none – zero – no possible good outcome for the North if they go “all out” on the South. It would be suicide for them.
So, we will get more of the same: isolated bombings, the occasional terrorist act, and repeated threats/begging from the North. The current situation is stable and will remain so, until internal pressure causes the North Korean government to implode. The South Korean government has the situation well in hand.
The current situation is in NO way comparable to 1950. Back then, the North had a very good chance at conquering the whole country. They had 150+ T-34 tanks and the South Koreans had essentially no anti-tank weapons (and no tanks of their own). The first three months of the war was a repeat of Poland vs. the German Panzer divisions from 1939. Now, the South has much better equipment than the North and almost certainly has better soldiers and officers.
In short, South Korea is not a country we have to worry about. It is as safe as any country could be which is bordered by a hostile, evil, totalitarian state armed with nuclear weapons. They can and will take care of themselves. Unlike some countries in the world, South Korea is “all grown up”. As for U.S. relations: South Korea has become one of our most valuable allies, at the same level as the U.K., Israel, Canada, and Australia. As far as South Korea is concerned, we are the most important ally they have in the entire world.
I very much hope you are right. However, it may be a mistake to base assessments on rational conduct and intelligence analysis by the Kim Dynasty; sometimes one, sometime the other and sometimes both simultaneously seem to be out at recess.
As you may recall, one of the bases for the DPRK 1950 invasion was the anticipation that hundreds of thousands of the repressed people of the South would rise up in revolt. Another was Secretary of State Dean Acheson’s January 1950 speech listing the Asian countries to the defense of which the U.S. would come in the event of an attack. South Korea was absent from that list. The anticipated uprising and the anticipated failure of the United States to respond are the two principal arguments Kim advanced to Stalin, successfully, to get Russian support for an invasion. However, President Truman had become quite concerned over Russia’s nuclear weapons development and her increasingly aggressive acts in Greece and elsewhere. China’s 1949 revolution bringing Mao Zedong and his Communist party to power was also a concern. The founder of the Kim Dynasty seems to have been a bit more on the ball than his son, Kim Jong-il or the latter’s son, Kim Jong-un, the brilliant young general.
North Korea could cause immense damage to South Korea.
But North Korea has no chance of actually conquering South Korea, even without U.S. intervention.
North Korea has about 500 jet fighters, of which about 3/4 are obsolete MiG-17, MiG-19, and MiG-21s (the MiG-21 went out of production in 1985; current Russian front line fighter is the MiG-31). South Korea has 200 F-15s and F-16s, plus another 200 F-4s and F-5s which are about as old as the NK MiGs, but have been upgraded with modern U.S. avionics and weapons.
North Korea has about 3,500 tanks, of which over 2/3 are obsolete T-54s and T-62s. South Korea has 2,200 tanks, of which 3/4 are modern K-1s and K-2s (manufactured by Hyundai and comparable to the M1 Abrams).
North Korea has attempted to manufacture some of its own arms. But given its extreme poverty, and the corruption and inefficiency inherent in dictatorships, it’s probable that the designs are obsolete or flawed, quality is terrible, and production is minimal.
South Korea has extensive fixed defenses along the DMZ – thousands of hardened bunkers and redoubts, echeloned in depth to contain any North Korean attack. It would be hard for any army to break through, much less North Korea.
As for the weakness of the U.S. military – the situation is not remotely comparable to 1950. At that time, the U.S. had cut its manpower by 85% from the WW II peak. The Army bore the brunt of these cuts, dropping over 90% (though this includes the separation of the Air Force). In 1948, during the Berlin Crisis, there were only two combat-ready U.S. army divisions.
The $500B cuts proposed are across the next several years, and are only a small fraction of total U.S. military spending. I don’t support these cuts, but they’re nothing like the near-total demobilization that followed WW II (which was taken without any real thought that the U.S. might have to fight another war).
My belief is that North Korea will continue to rattle sabers, make threats, and commit provocations – but always stop short of actual war, which would endanger the rulers and their luxurious life. The object will be to extort further payoffs from other countries.
Sadly, this game can probably be continued indefinitely.
“This apparently doesn’t worry Secretary of State Clinton, who said on October 14th that in this new age the strength of the U.S. is waning, not due to any loss of military power but due to flawed economic policies.”
Did you ever, EVER, think you would hear the Secretary of State of this country say something like that? And who’s “flawed economic policies” have been in place the last three years? We are broke now because the Democrats have spent us into oblivion in three short years. The Republicans had budget deficits before, but nothing like what we have now. As a result of all this useless spending, are we now thrown on the ash heap of history as a superpower?
No. Not now, not ever, never. That just isn’t in America’s DNA. Much as Obama has tried to destroy this country’s power as a world leader, Americans will not stand for it. In 2012 we will make our voices heard and Obama will be thrown out of office, just like Jimmy Carter. We have economic troubles, sure, but we can still fix them if we try. Sacrificing our military because of our current welfare-state mentality will only make us like France, and Americans have no stomach for that. I do feel that this sorry situaiton will turn around in 2012 and we will be on the right path to strength and freedom once again.
As for Korea, North Korea would be stupid NOT to attack right now. They will not have a better chance than to hit South Korea at this time. The United States is weak, our Navy is shrinking quickly, and the American public is tired of warfare after having spent years in Iraq and Afghanistan. Somehow, wer’re starting to look like France did in 1940 when the Germans marched in. France was tired and sick of war after World War I and I don’t think they had it in them to fight yet another World War. But, like the French, you sometimes don’t have a choice in the matter and when you’re attacked you have to fight back. Because, if you don’t, then submission is even worse than losing in battle, as the French found out to the utter dismay in 1940 and shortly thereafter.
We are not, and never will be, like the French. I do hope the North Koreans understand that. Fighting another useless war in Korea will only kill a lot of people and destroy most of the country. And I doubt either side wants that.
If the US indeed is weak, then where is all the money going to? Our defense budget is equal in size to the defense budgets of Russia, China, Britain, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, Germany combined. And maybe also throw in Brazil for good measure. I don’t think the solution to a problem, if there is indeed a problem, is to throw more money down a rathole, as has been suggested by candidate Romney, who wants to increase defense spending.
We need a smart defense policy; not a policy that allows every cost overrun suggested or requested by defense contractors. Nor a policy that desires to buy; for example; over 2,300 F-35 fighter planes; a plane that may well be obsolete when it finally enters service in 2016.
It sounds like the Norks used the same plan as the freedom tower committee in New york as far as timetable for completion is concerned.Or maybe Bloomberg adopted that plan as his own,,Sad!
There is no stopping the American advantage in their goal for domination of the worlds economies. Russia and China realize that the U.S.is on its way, and there is nothing they can do to stop that unbeatable American advantage.
US forces in South Korea are and always have been effectively hostages, placed there to ensure that any major incursion from the North would automatically involve the US militarily. Such an incursion was unlikely and kept that way by the threat of resolute US administrations and a strong and available military response should it be needed. The situation has now changed drastically, with a wimp in the White House (try as the media might to portray Obama as a tough guy who “got” bin Laden and Gaddafi) and over-extended fighting forces. The politics in play have shifted, and all our troops along the DMZ are in peril. I sincerely hope the maniac in charge on the other side of the line does not completely lose it and launch an invasion, but that act is no longer unthinkable.
The factor that most people here seem to be missing – as may be the WH/State – is China. North Korea is a Chinese client state and exists as it does solely because China wants a buffer between themselves and the rest of the world. Remember, China has been invaded many times through the Korean peninsula.
China will probably not let North Korea invade South Korea, simply because if N.K. lost they would have to intervene themselves. Nor would they let S.K go north, for the same reason. China has every reason to want the status quo and no reason to allow any change in it.
Beg to differ. No fan of Kim Jong-mentally Il; but the guy would have to be a complete sicko to risk a throw-of-the-dice attack on SK. He might have some T-80s, but no reactive amour means you’re dead almost as soon as you come out of the trees and cross into the south. Yes, mentally Il could shell the living daylights out of Seoul for time and then what? In return for his time and trouble he would get the only valuable real estate in NK (Pyongyang) blown to smithereens. And, given the short time it would remain intact it would be more effective for NK to turn its pilots into kamikazes–perhaps this thought keeps them awake at night.
Sure, the Chincoms could intervene; but China’s intervention would be the end of its trade relationship with the US.
Sure, the Chincoms could intervene; but China’s intervention would be the end of its trade relationship with the US. Chinese intervention does seem unlikely now. China might well try to dissuade the DPRK from doing anything too vigorously. However, should China intervene on behalf of the DPRK, would the demise of US – Chinese trade relations ultimately be good or bad for the US? What would be the effect on China’s trade and other relations with various countries in Europe and South/Central America? Might that depend on our own relations with those countries?
Your first point takes it for granted that Kim and his inner circle are actually rational, well-informed men who haven’t drunk deep of their own Kool-Aid, and
who have realistic ideas about their capabilities, and the capabilities/motives of other nations. Plenty of room for doubt there.
And there’s a ton of room for doubt on your second point. The U.S. corporations currently doing business with China would far rather betray their own country than turn their backs on their lucrative contracts and the vaunted “1.3 billion-person market” that floats before their eyes like an eternal carrot.
I currently live in Korea. When I arrived here 3 years ago, I remember considering the need to leave because some pretty nerve racking events were happening with the north. Then it happened again. And again and so on.
The way you can tell if somebody is new here is how they respond to yet another event. Now I’m not promoting complacency but these things occur on a very regular basis and so when I read yet another piece by somebody, especially somebody living outside the country, sounding a warning about impending doom, I’m amused.
Sure there is a threat and the DPRK is a horrible place, but it might be a good idea for everybody to calm down.
Having said all that, I’d like to see the US pull out of Korea completely. I’m here for a job I can’t get in my home country, riding on nicely attended bike paths that are possible because the US insists on footing the bill for another country’s security. Sure we have our own strategic reasons for being here but the current situation needs to change. When you give things away like say, national security, then it loses its value and the recipient has no appreciation. That is why so many Koreans bitch about a US presence and why radical political ideas are so easily considered here. They’re living in a protective bubble, not the real world.
If and when reunification occurs (and btw, the average Korean does not want this anymore) this country is certainly going to hell and it will take years to dig itself out. Sure there will be millions of starving people to save but international aid will probably provide a lot of the resources. After all that aid is misappropriated or stolen, then doubled or tripled, there is going to be an entire generation of people who have no concept of functioning in a normal society. They are going to suffer from Post Totalitarian Stress Syndrome (a term coined by Arthur Chrenkoff I believe). That is going to be the greatest challenge for a unified Korea.
I am glad that you are happy there and trying to promote calm. When I was stationed in Seoul twice as an Army JAG officer between 1967 and 1970, I was happy and reasonably tranquil too. KMAG (the Korea American Advisory Group) was helping the then president of South Korea remain in office by building roads and bridges. During my second tour, as a Special Court Martial Military Judge, I flew to our 2nd and 7th Divisions with some frequency. Shortly after an Army helicopter had been forced to land in North Korea, I was the passenger in a two seat Army helicopter going to one of our division areas. About twenty miles out of Seoul, the young warrant officer flying the chopper told me that he was disoriented and did not quite know where we were or where to go. He had no compass on board and had never previously made the trip. I had made it many times and was able to tell him to head right and follow the road.
The Pueblo incident occurred when I was there as did the hijacking of a Korean Airlines flight to the North. A few days after the KAL hijacking, I was on a KAL flight from Seoul to Taegu. Shortly after take off, the aircraft made a 180 degree turn and headed north. When the pilot announced over the PA system that we were returning to Seoul due to engine problems, the sighs of relief were quite audible.
Tranquility is good. Alertness is as well. They can co-exist.
Well Said #23 BEB
I live in Northern China and every once in a while go to the Yalu River where i sit in Chinese cafe or a bar. The Chinese side is like Paris, with sidewalk cafes and restaurants. The N.Korean side is bleak, grey and desperate, its tragic thinking of the daily lives of people brainwashed to follow their leader over a cliff.
But as BEB indicated, the rhetoric is weekly, the average people could care less the politics or sound bites…they are trying to find food to eat.
Want to overthrow N. Korea..?? smuggle french fries, hamburgers and hot dogs into N. Korea. That will cause more instability than bombs or threats.
American influence is spreading over the Chinese and Russian mainland, it soon will bring new governments to the region. Borders will no longer exist only trade zones, the worlds wealth will be distributed more fairly.