Iran to Test First Nuclear Bomb by 2012?
Iran, which was for years enriching only to the 3.5 percent level due to fear of retaliation by the international community, started its enrichment to the 20 percent level last year after the Obama administration’s soft approach toward the regime. Twenty percent enrichment is 80 percent of the way to weaponization.
Iran currently has over 3600 kilograms of enriched uranium at 3.5 percent, enough for three nuclear bombs if enriched further. It also has an announced inventory of 40 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium. If true, it will take the Iranians only two months to further enrich that stockpile into 20 kilograms of enriched uranium over 90 percent, sufficient for one nuclear warhead.
The IAEA revealed in a recent report that Iran has sought and experimented with certain technologies that could make a type of atom bomb known as an implosion device, considered more advanced than the bomb America used on Hiroshima.
I revealed on May 31 that the Revolutionary Guards are now in possession of two nuclear capable warheads, with eight more to be delivered within the next ten months. The Guards expect to have at least two fully armed nuclear warheads before the end of the current Iranian calendar year, March 2012.
America and its European allies have continuously tried to change the behavior of the regime with incentives and negotiations. The Iranian leaders refused every time to accept any offer, buying time in order to get to the point of no return. The jihadists in Iran will have their nuclear bomb, and we have only ourselves to blame.
No need to worry. We dont need to do anything. This is why we provide our friends with the latest weapons, training and technology so they can deal with the problem themselves. After all, they are the ones most threatened by this.
Yep, I expect that any day now the skies over Tehran will thunder as the F-16s coming screaming in from Turkey and Saudi Arabia…
What we still have friends?
Yes, but not the folks I mentioned.
We all know who is supposed to do the heavy lifting in the middle east. Its either the US or that little place down the beach from Hezbollaland or up the beach from Gazastan.
Wishful thinking. Khameini and Akhmadinejad think nothing of slipping a nuke to a proxy, even to the hated sunnis of Al Qaeda, if they think they can get away with it, for use on a western city. And you think Turkey will allow the Americans to do a bombing run on Iran? You think it’s easy or feasible to wipe out multiple secret sites, some far underground, with bombs? And you think the current administration would have the resolve anyway?
Make no mistake, the west is in deadly peril from these barbarians, and too spineless to do anything about it.
It means Death for the West if we allow this despicable old bearded religious fanatic access to The Bomb. March 12, 2012 is too soon to expect America to do what’s necessary…. not with the Muslim sympathizer currently in the WH. I guess that means Israel is our only hope.
Heres whats so hard to undertand we have nukes they dont. They want to play lets play, they nuke a city nuke the whole middle east. Make that a policy right now, institute the MAD doctrine.
This will not work on Iran.
The Gerdab.ir article was in its “in the blogosphere” section which collects blog posts from pro-government bloggers. It was written by an ordinary Iranian blogger, not IRGC. This is the comment, detailing the case more, that I posted earlier on Guardian.co.uk (which originally reported the story):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/discussion/comment-permalink/11093875
On another note, would Kahlili bet on whether Iran will possess nukes by 2020? I doubt so. The U.S. 2011 National Intelligence Estimate Report has not concluded that Iran is looking for nuclear weapons (see the recent Seymour Hersh story on New Yorker); how come Kahlili knows more than the U.S. intelligence community?
Another Islamic agent reassuring us that the crazies in Tehran do not want atom bombs and its all for peaceful purposes.Even the libs at the Whitehouse said Seymour Hersh is way off. Its time for the mullahs to be dealt with or we get the crazies attacking us.
MohammadD: since Kahlili was a double agent within the Revolutionary Guards. I’d assume he still has contacts within the organization. And remember, the CIA found out about the Indian and Pakistani nuclear programs by reading the New York Times the day after they tested their devices.
Seriously, will somebody remake “The Day After” or “Threads” in Farsi and relocate the action to Tabriz?
@jamal
First, I’m not an “agent”. I’m an ordinary Iranian citizen.
Second, the “libs” at the White House are the statesmen right now, and they know that they’ll need wealthy pro-Israel donors for the upcoming election. BTW, what is really the difference between Bush and Obama? At least in their policy towards Iran? I don’t see any significant difference except in the superficial gestures.
@Armando
Well, I think that if the U.S. intelligence community found Kahlili’s “connections” credible, they would consult him. Or perhaps they don’t trust him?
Personally I find most of his claims very bizarre and designed to shock and instill anti-Iranian fear in his naive conservative readers. It’s noteworthy that only neocon outlets publish his stories. If I remember correctly, even Washington Post has never taken him serious and reported on his stories (which, after all, must be important news if they’re deemed to be true).
About the India and Pakistan nukes, can you provide a source? I searched the Web and only found the following story by Guardian, which claims that U.S. in fact helped Pakistan to obtain nuclear weapons.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/oct/13/usa.pakistan
If what you said is true, then maybe CIA didn’t know of the exact timing of the nuclear tests, but it’s highly unlikely that they did not know of India and Pakistan’s intentions and efforts to build nukes.
What your terrorist supporting self don’t realize is that Seymour Hersh is simply a journalist – nothing more and nothing less – and clearly, one can suspect you are more than an “Iranian citizen”. You are most likely an agent of the Iranian Islamic Republic and an apologist to the terrorist regime which not only terrorizes fellow Iranians and rapes virgins before executing them, but in their end-of-the-world “hidden imam” video are preparing for war and havoc and the return of their fabled hidden imam.
This is a regime that is a threat not only to the Iranian people, but to the entire international community and all free people. We must assist the Iranian people the next time an uprising takes place which will most likely be during the next round of fake elections within the next 2-years.
Instead of name-calling, perhaps you could use some reason? Ever heard of fact-based argument?
Did you know that the producers of the prophecy film you mentioned have been actually arrested? And mainstream Iranian political and religious figures condemned the film? Or, since nothing good can ever happen in Iran, maybe you believe that all of these were merely pretense?
When the USSR was just about to fold, it came as a surprise to the CIA. The CIA wasn’t very effective in Moscow. I doubt if it is any more effective in Tehran.
The Soviets were very thorough in keeping security.
I think Iran is also capable of keeping information well-contained. Both USSR and the present gov’t of Iran rule with iron fists and anyone leaking vital military information would suffer extreme penalty.
I really think we are strictly in a position of reacting to the rulers of Iran.
It is not what I look forward to,and even though there are Iranians who’d welcome relief from the fears that they must live under, I wish the CIA would be as effective as you may think it is.
The US intelligenec services are little more than a joke; see comments about US awareness of Indian and Pakistani atomic bomb developement.The US should stop dividing its intelligenec between competeing and jealous agencies and combine into one serious proficient system before it’s too late.
It is always interesting to point out that 7 of the 14 scientists on the Manhattan Project were Jewish. This is significant because those fourteen were the ones who figured out how to create two different types of fission bombs and later, fusion with others involved as well. They were:
* Otto Frisch
* Robert Oppenheimer (Lead Scientist)
* Felix Bloch
* David Bohm
* Eugene (Paul) Wigner
* Rudolph Peierls
* Leo Szilard
It does astound me that the sand-people would even try to use the work originally devised by Jewish scientists. Either they are ignorant of this fact, or it’s somehow outside the scope of their “religion” to go ahead and do so. Yet these are the same people who feel they must eradicate the world of all Jews. Maybe they see some sort of warped form of poetic justice in it. You know they will use it on Israel and therefore, get themselves all killed in the process. Their goal is most likely to launch several vehicles simultaneously that will strike Israel and kill 90% of the population there, and the consequences to themselves be damned. But what is most worriesome is that, going beyond the realization that they will most likely kill everyone in Israel, what the rest of the world will do at that point to condemn them. The Iran leaders are just crazy and stupid and suicidal enough to do it and once Khomeni is on his death bed from either old age or incurable ailment, he will give the order to launch. Ach-I-need-a-job will either hesitate or carry out said order. He’s nuts enough to do it.
For 1,400 years Islam has been teaching hatred of non-Muslims. The collective Muslim mindset is not reasonable by any logical standard.
When and if Iran’s religious (fruitcakes) get the bomb, don’t expect logic to prevail.
It will only be a matter of time and something ugly will happen.
I generally subscribe to this view too – but there is one thing that gives me pause…..
why have we not seen a “dirty bomb”? Heck – with the wind in the right direction they would not even have to enter Israel…or any other target.
Because dirty bombs are pathetic at causing damage, but may elicit nuclear retaliation. Too much risk, not enough reward. The three best isotopes for dirty bombs are Co-60, Cs-137, and Sr-90; anything else isn’t worth using. Co-60 is so radioactive, it’s liable to kill anyone handling large enough quantities to build a bomb. Cs-137 is water soluble, making decontamination relatively easy. Sr-90 is acid soluble, making decontamination only slightly more complicated. While in theory you could use plutonium for a dirty bomb, no terrorist who ever got their hands on plutonium would waste it on a dirty bomb.
Well, if that don’t wake the Russkies up, nothing will.
“the realization of God’s promise that Islam and the Muslims will ultimately triumph.”
The translation in wrong. It is not God’s promise, it is the god’s promise. History(a correct version)has proven Muhammad grew up in a family that worshiped the moon god Sin. One of 360 false gods at the Kabba, or zero point. It is the god that his Uncle is named after, and the reason Muhammad never had to explain who the god was. It is also the reason the moon is on top of Mosques.
Writing the word God, and not the god leads people to think that the G-d of the Jews is the same as the Arabs. It is not.
Allah Akbar means the god is greatest of all other gods at the Kabba.
The Bible reads the reborn Israel will not be destroyed. It does read those who curse Israel will be cursed.
They know that this administration will not stop them.
And they know that Obama could lose in 2012.
1+1= nuke
Another great success for Obama. Nukes to the anti-imperialists everywhere !
PS Because if it is Iran, it is everywhere.
Iran + nuke = Obama loss. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, if Iran aquires a nuclear weapon by November 2012-early 2013, they do not publicly announce it until after the election. By that time no sane (heres hoping we elect someone whose sanity is in question) Republican Prez would risk an attack and as you mentioned, Obama sure isn’t goind to do anything; he probably views Iran aquiring a nuke as payback to the West for deposing the Shah.
The people of Iran will never allow a Hezbollah nuke to be built.
Ali,
Please help me to understand what you wrote.
Is it snarky humor? That is often difficult in posting since people will often take you literally since we lack voice inflection and all of the non vocal stuff to show we are sarcastic.
To imply that hezbolla could “build” a nuclear weapon on their own is of course silly. They cannot build a tank. They could not build anything even close to a nuclear weapon. Israel would quash them. They only have such power as they do in Lebanon because of Iranian support.
Are you saying that everything is cool cause if Iran has some nukes they will act responsibly? That is what I think you are saying.
I think you are a transient poster who will not reply.
In Iran we call the regime Hezbollah. The author uses the word Iran inappropriately. The Hezbollah kill the people of Iran. Most of the reports would make more sense if the word Iran was not used to describe the activities of the Ayatollahs or Hezbollah.
Oh, that is something else.
I would suggest that you will be consistently misunderstood by Americans if you use those terms. Hezbolla here means the Lebanese party. Also in english it is perfectly OK to say Iran (or any onther country) and refer only to the government. I can say “the US” and refer to the land, people, or government. You have to figure it out by the context.
I’m sorry but I am counting on missile defense. I’m not to keen to see our planes and pilots be blown out of the sky in order to be rewarded with condemnations, sanctions and bombings for solving the world’s problems.
I’m not so sure Iran will nuke Israel. If they do its game over for the middle east, so ibdoubt it. I am sure however they will use the nuclear umbrella to extend their proxy wars against Israel and obviously they will conquer Iraq and other oil producing countries. Without oil, no economy, without an economy no west.
That’s why I believe Iran won’t nuke Israel -they don’t have to- and why in the end Ayatollah’s with nukes are more a threat to you then to us.
Why be globally condemned and despised for solving other people’s problems?
Great post Israeli. Rest of the region waits for Israel or US to take care of it like Iraq and Syria.
Enough already. Time for the players to step up to the plate. Israel tries an air attack now gonna be horrible. The Persians are dug in deep and we could go all over the details.
Saudis, Turks, French, Indians, kuwait, Bahrain, et al. You want a nuclear Iran? After the last meeting of OPEC?
You gonna get it. Israel will focus on deterrence and defense. Put your best and brightest in the air if you want something better. Tired of fighting for you.
Israeli deterrence may not necessarily be its IAF, not where Iran is concerned. Iran probably has the latest Russian anti-aircraft defenses. The fighter-bomber types Israel has have neither the range nor load-carrying capacity for a long flight, Iraqi airspace would not be open to them,I don’t see Saudi-Arabia allowing IAF planes the use of its airstrips even if their lives depended upon it, therefore a flight would be essentially in excess of their operational range. Yes,I have thought of in-flight refueling, however the Obama regime is resistive to allowing IAF planes over Iraqi air space.
But, the presence of five relatively new Israeli submarines, capable of shallow water operations and launching of sea-land missiles could cause any power in that area to think twice or more. The subs are designed to fire nuclear warheads and could operate in the Persian Gulf area. They’d either need to take a very long cruise around Africa into the Indian Ocean, or pass through the Suez Canal. Either way, a monumental task. That would obviate use of Iraqi air space. I really doubt the Russian-designed air defense system will stop such missiles.It didn’t when the IAF took out a Syrian reactor. But,planes could probably be stopped….ballistic missiles, probably not.
I sincerely hope that the Israeli leadership can ignore the possibility that they will be universally criticized if they knock out Iran’s nukes.
First, I’m not convinced that the criticism will be as universal as you fear. Israel has taken on missions like this before and I don’t recall the criticisms being particularly nasty or prolonged. Criticisms for bombing the Osirak reactor seemed more pro forma than sincere because sensible people everywhere realized that Israel had done a good thing, even if they couldn’t bring themselves to say so publicly.
Second, if Israel doesn’t take out the Iranian nukes, I’m not sure anyone else will. I just can’t picture Obama giving that order to US forces. He seems convinced that he has the goodwill of the Muslims and doesn’t seem willing to risk that. Look how long it took him to agree to take out Bin Laden (assuming the rumours about Panetta actually giving the order aren’t true). That reeks of someone who is worried about upsetting Muslims and Muslim countries, all other factors be damned.
Whether the Iranian regime is rational enough to develop a nuclear capability but only use it for blackmail and never use it is anyone’s guess. That’s why I hope Mossad and other western intelligence agencies are very well embedded in Iran so that they can make those assessments.
The problem is that these maniacs don’t make decisions based on rationality or “in this world” but a fabled hidden imam and “another world”. The Soviets didn’t use the bomb and we didn’t use it on them for the fear of mutual destruction. These end-of-the-world maniacs embrace destruction and don’t care for the lives of Iranians; they would be willing to sacrifice the lives of every last Iranian child and mother for their sick and twisted beliefs.
Sassan, not to be too simplistic here, but anyone who still believes that MAD will deter the Iranian Hitler and his mad mullahs are indeed mad.
Moreover, I have been studying this issue for years, having been in constant contact with Professor Louis Beres. As author of Project Daniel, the MAIN nuclear strategic policy paper given to ex PM Sharon & Bush in 2004, one cannot understand what is at play with Iran and the west unless this policy paper and its attendant follow up are studied fully.I repeat, there is no other credible expert on nuclear strategic policy who has the requisite experience and credentials which Professor Beres does.
Be that as it may, many of the readers surely have been following the very ‘strange’ public announcements from the latest ex Mossad Chief, Meir Dagan. All of a sudden, like a bolt out of the blue, the normally reticient Security Chief has alot to say.Curious and curiouser….Mind you, not in private forums but publicly.
On the face of it, it would appear that he has gone mad, outing Israel’s plans-or lack thereof-for our enemies to take note.
Now, if one thinks outside the box and extrapolates further regarding this extraordinary ‘public’ disagreement in Israel(even by Israeli standards this is an astonishing development re the foremost issue of the day!) from its MAIN security chief dealing with Iran, one has to wonder-what is he up to??
Again, think outside the box……
It is unlikely that Iran will actually use their nukes on Israel. You’re also right about the proxy wars, which is in my opinion also a reason why neither Obama nor Bush has destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities yet. They already have the ability to put that region into chaos without nukes. After they have aquired a nuclear weapon, what prohibits the Saudis, Jordanians, Syrians or Egypt from attempting to get in on the action; that is why the US has to halt Iran’s program. Nuclear devices would be in the hands of terrorists in a few years and energy prices would skyrocket; don’t think OPEC would mind playing a little game of fake chicken to drive the cost of oil up?
What gets me is that Jordan, the Saudis, the UAE and Egypt (when Mubarak was still in charge) have all privately voiced support for the US to go in and take down the program. By letting Mubarak be ousted Obama effectively gave up a major ally when it comes to dealing with Iran, the most serious sign that he will not prohibit Iran from aquiring a nuke despite the most powerful of Arab nations being against Iran.
Sorry, I’d like to comment on this one, but it is impossible for me to avoid profanities and foul language, so I will think about it, eat something and come back later to comment
I love all you right-wingers with your “missile defense” this and your “Islam is evil” that. Iran has no more nukes that Saddam did. Where’s the WMDs that were supposed to be in Iraq? Fools, all of you. Keep beating the drums of war and see how the Iranians react. It’s bad enough that we’re always tormenting the Middle East, but do we really need to make up an Iranian bogey-man to take the public’s eye off of 8 years of Republican mis-rule?
You are an idiot that had posted on CNN as well. There is no doubt that Islam is fundamentally a backwards religion against the most minimal standards of human rights and particularly women’s rights; but away from Islam, this regime has proclaimed their end-of-the-world prophecies themselves with their belief in preparation for the “hidden imam” through conquer and destruction. Haven’t you watched the video leaked by Mr. Kahlili?? This regime is a threat to humanity and for you to want to ignore this threat makes you a pacifist coward.
“Iran has no more nukes that Saddam did. ”
You know this how?
“Keep beating the drums of war and see how the Iranians react.”
If the Iranian government weren’t making like Gene Krupa on their set, we wouldn’t have this problem.
“Fools, all of you.”
Ah yes, insults: foolproof way to effectively argue your point, eh Lovely?
I’ve said this to you once, and I’ll say it to you again:
“Didn’t you see the video of Neda Agha-Soltan? Didn’t you see “The Stoning of Soraya M”? Haven’t you heard what they do to political prisoners in jail, particularly female political prisoners? Haven’t you heard the repeated denials of the Shoah from Ahmadinejad? Haven’t you heard the repeated predictions of the destruction of Israel, and how the Muslim world could sustain multiple nuclear attacks, but that Israel couldn’t sustain one? Haven’t you heard about how Ahmadinejad wants to bring the 12th Imam out of some random well so he can bring about the final victory of Allah?
The Iranian government is theocratic, racist, misogynistic, and homophobic (and genocidal, might I add). They are everything you, as somebody who is ostensibly “progressive”, should be against.“
LovelyEarth proposes that any sort of threat from Iranian government is a bogey man. this includes both internal and external threats. There are none. Iran is functioning as Iran should and that is all there is to it.
Sounds good. If Iran is no threat then we can all forget about it and get on with more important stuff like cleaning up our yards from all the global warming events lately.
So what is all this nonsense? Why cant Iran and israel just get along?
This is not puff post or kos
You are out of your ability here. Maybe we all are.
Comments like this give me heart more than anything else that Obama will lose in 2012. It’s been almost 2 and a half years and still, whether it is a topic about foreign policy or the economy, all the libs can do is blame Bush. They simply aren’t able to run on their “accomplishments”.
If Iran tests a nuke why can’t we lob a nuke tipped missile in on top of it to make it accidentally 100 times stronger and then deny, deny, deny, no matter the evidence?
Missile track? What missile track? Radar logs? What radar logs? Maybe it was a sunspot.
The Pinocchios of the middle east lie so fluently that they set records for most plastic surgery to make small noses. Plus they’re nuts.
Because you need lithium-6 deuteride to accomplish such a yield, which the Iranians do not have. Only the British ever succeeded in building a pure fission device large enough to be confused with a thermonuclear weapon, and that was because they didn’t have the technical capability to build a thermonuclear weapon, but wanted the world to think they did. Iran, however, wouldn’t waste the fissile material needed to build such a device. The purpose of the test is to demonstrate that they have nukes, not to use five bombs worth of material to build one bomb for a test.
Many Jewish scientists worked on the Bomb. A Jewish chemist (Fritz Haber) invented Xyclon B. Anyway, the Rhineland is Germany’s backyard. They have a right to their back yard.
To answer MohammadD’s question at #2: yes, I’m very sure Khalili would bet Iran will have a nuclear weapon by 2010.
As for Lovely Earth at #11: equally dear to me are all the left-wingers who say things like “Iran has no more nukes than Saddam did.” There are two reasons Saddam never developed nuclear weapons. We just saw the 30th anniversary of one of them on 7 June: the Israeli strike on the reactor at Osirak in 1981. The other is the 12-year, two-invasion, multi-billion dollar military effort of the United States and our allies to keep Saddam in his box, destroy his nuclear facilities, and shut off his access to foreign help for his nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs.
When we drove Saddam’s army back from Kuwait in 1991, our forces discovered that he was much further along toward developing a nuclear weapon than US intelligence thought he was, even after the setback at Osirak in 1981. He spent the next 12 years alternately refusing access to UN inspectors, deceiving them about what was going on at his suspect weapons sites, and kicking them out of the country. As the Duelfer report (from the Iraq Study Group, which performed the forensic investigation in Iraq after the 2003 invasion) made clear, Saddam maintained a nuclear program throughout the 12-year period between invasions, funneling money to it and using his intelligence service to seek foreign resources for it.
If you are arguing for a need to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, invade Iran, mount a 12-year naval embargo of Iran, and regime-change Iran, then you have made a good choice in using Saddam’s Iraq as your example. Otherwise, not.
That should be “will have a nuclear weapon by 2020.” Yeesh.
I would like to ask Reza a question, (Great book of yours, thank you).
What are the chances that the Mullahs, once they have a few warheads would not be using them not on Israel or the West first, but use them to take over the Arab middle East? Saudi Arabia would be easier to subdue, may invite no devastating counterstrike, would expand their base from which to continue the war on the infidels. “We keep the holy places. submit to us.”
The Persians and Arabs are historical foes. If it is not just a contest between the Sunnis and Shia as to who destroys Israel first, then it would seem that extending rule over Sunni lands would be the easier and safer way to become a superpower rival to the West.
Alot of speculation going on in this forum. Everyone giving their individual opinion.
Times are tight, budgets are pinched. We had two dollars left in our food budget on Tuesday of last week, so I buzzed to the store and bought the only thing I could think of Ramen Noodles. How come the good old USA has money to spend on military?
good work on this article. thank you.