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Iran Could Have Enough Fuel for Four Bombs by July Under Administration’s Deal

"Absent 100 percent cooperation" from Iran, Congress hears, Obama's "'verification' equals bomb."

Bridget Johnson


January 29, 2014 - 5:57 pm
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WASHINGTON — President Obama heartily defended his nuclear deal with Iran at the State of the Union, vowing to veto a sizable bipartisan movement in Congress to keep sanctions pressure on the Islamic Republic.

“For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed,” Obama said, getting not as much applause as he may have hoped from the joint session.

The morning before he took the dais, though, a congressional panel heard that Iran has fully retained its ability to build a nuclear bomb that could be cranked out in as little as two months under the terms of the much-touted P5+1 agreement.

Gregory Jones, senior researcher of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, told a joint hearing of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittees on the Middle East and North Africa and Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade that the Obama administration has engaged in “mischaracterization of the deal’s benefits and the denial of the deal’s great flaw.”

“President Obama has said that the deal has ‘cut off Iran’s most likely paths to a bomb,’” Jones said. “This is not true. Before the current nuclear deal, Iran could produce the highly enriched uranium — HEU — for a nuclear weapon in just six weeks. Over the next six months, the joint plan of action will increase this interval only slightly to eight weeks.”

“Iran will remain perilously close to a nuclear weapon. The joint plan of action allows Iran to continue to produce 3.5 percent enriched uranium which is the key starting material for any Iranian effort to produce HEU for weapons. Iran’s stockpile of this material will continue to grow during the course of this nuclear deal, though several White House statements, as well as Secretary Kerry, have incorrectly claimed otherwise.”

Jones warned that “as this stockpile of enriched uranium grows, the number of nuclear weapons that Iran can produce from it will grow as well.”

“Iran’s stockpile of 3.5 percent enriched uranium in the form of uranium hexafluoride is not supposed to grow. Iran is supposed convert the excess into an oxide form, but Iran can easily convert this material back into hexafluoride once it begins to produce nuclear weapons,” he added. “This fact is well known to U.S. technical experts, but their input was apparently either not sought or heeded.”

That means Iran could have enough uranium, once converted to weapons-grade material, for about four nuclear weapons by the time the interim agreement is up in July.

Mark Wallace, a former ambassador to the United Nations for UN Management and Reform during the George W. Bush administration, is now CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran. “Absent countries that fully and 100 percent cooperate, there is no such thing as verification that works,” he told the panel. “…Absent 100 percent cooperation, ‘verification’ equals bomb.”

The lawmakers on the panel who have seen the unfiltered version of the deal with Iran — which the administration won’t release to the American public because it says technical details need to be kept classified — remain convinced that the deal won’t stop Tehran from getting the bomb.

“First, if Iran has nuclear weapons Americans shouldn’t feel that they are safe, even if missile defense worked, because you can smuggle a nuclear weapon inside a bale of marijuana,” said Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.). “Second, the best argument for this agreement remaining secret is it must contain wonderful pro-American provisions that hardliners in Iran are unaware of. Unfortunately — and I know the hardliners look to me for advice and information — we’ve seen it. It doesn’t.”

“No doubt President Obama will tout this deal as the ultimate achievement for diplomacy and peace while excoriating those of us who had the temerity to say, hey, wait a minute: I don’t trust the Iranian regime,” Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) said of the agreement announced in November but not launched until Jan. 20.

“There is no mechanism that allows for adjudication of violations in this deal and that is very troublesome. Bottom line, as long as the infrastructure is in place for Iran to continue its nuclear program, the threat that it can create a nuclear weapon will always be all too real, and that where P5+1 momentarily failed in this interim agreement,” she continued.

And the public boasting from President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif that Iran “would not dismantle any part of its nuclear program under any circumstance… it has me fearing what the administration will accept in a final comprehensive agreement.”

Zarif told CNN today that Iran brushed off Obama’s address as fodder for “domestic consumption” but not representing the agreement accurately.

“It doesn’t matter how the Americans try to spin it for domestic consumption. When it comes to Iran, it does matter,” Zarif said. The Obama administration has likewise accused Iran of altering details of the agreement for public consumption.

“The Iranian stockpile is essentially useless for their domestic energy program. However, 19,000 centrifuges and 7 tons of enriched uranium are highly useful when a nation is trying to build a nuclear weapon,” said Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Fla.). “We can all agree that nuclear science is complicated, but it seems that even someone with only a cursory knowledge of nuclear technology understands the dangers posed by Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities.”

“How concerned should we be that continued R&D will simply allow Iran to install highly advanced centrifuges in six months, or in a year, or in five years?”

Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.) said “all of us are a little stunned” by the agreement.

“I think we’re stunned that not only does Iran continue to enrich uranium, but they’re very, very vocal about the fact that they’re going to continue the research and development on faster and faster spinning of centrifuges,” Royce said. “And for them to be making this pronouncement in the middle of this interim agreement on how they’re reaching this capability to develop and spin these centrifuges at supersonic speeds, setting new records, implies a certain intent on undetectable nuclear breakout capability.”

“One of today’s witnesses has estimated that even if we were to force Iran to dismantle 80 percent of its 19,000 installed centrifuges — and of course they say they won’t dismantle one of them — even if we were to force it to close its entire enrichment facility at Fordow, even if we were to dismantle or convert its planned heavy water reactor to a light water reactor and agree to a multi-decade intrusive inspections regime, the fact is that Iran would still be six months away from nuclear breakout.”

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All Comments   (18)
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Iran could produce a bomb in 4 weeks. In 4 months, in two days, by next year, by this Christmas....I've been hearing this rant for the past 10 years. Obama will let them eventually aquire a nuclear weapon and Israel will pay the price. That's bad enough but Obama truly hates the State of Israel.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Ladies and Gentlemen,

This is sooo obvious, and I am amazed that the generally far-above-average IQ crowd here at PJM have not seen this for what it is.

First, Obama is in office on a "screw Israel scholarshiop". Other forces were behind him (the Rev. Wrong, Bill Ayers commie types), but they've been around for a long time and were never able to make much headway. By themselves, they never could have put someone in the WH. It was the Gulf Arabs who had the $$$, the influence over our media, our academe, etc., who could really make this happen.

What was in it for the Petrodollar Pimps? Mainly, having a U.S president who would not be hampered by infidel notions such as Judeo-Christian ethics, Western concepts of freedom and democracy, etc. Obama was heavily brainwashed by proxies for the Gulf Arabs - Edward Said, Rashid Khalidi, Khalid Al Mansour - to put the undermining of Israel as his top priority. Consider his "best bud" at U Chicago, Rashid Khalidi, who raised $70,000 for Obama's first senate campaign. You all think he did that because he wanted Obamacare? Obama held out the promise of being willing to go farther than any other U.S. president in forcing the Israelis to "cry uncle" on the Palestinian issue.

So, enter the "Law of Unintended Consequences"....

What the Petrodollar Pimps did not count on was that Obama - per his "programming" - would place such a high priority on screwing over Israel above all else, that he is even willing to let Iran go nuclear in the service of this aim. The threat of an imminently nuclear Iran is the most powerful coercive tool Obama has over Israel. Do you all think it is a coincidence that the time frame for these "peace talks" between Israel and the PA and the time frame for this "interim agreement" with Iran are almost exactly the same? The Petrodollar Pimps are wetting their pants over this now...which just goes to show that - ironically, like many American Jewish voters here - they ain't so smart after all.

Obama is playling Russian roulette with three of six chambers loaded with the prospect of a nuclear Iran - and all that will mean in terms of trashing the NPT, resulting instability, threats to U.S. and Western interests on an unprecedented scale - just to blackmail Israel. And for good measure, you can rest assured that Obama has so much of U.S. intel targeted on Israel, that an Israeli fighter pilot can hardly break wind in the direction of Tehran without being picked up by the Obama administration...who will then warn Iran of an impending strike...with obviuos consequences for the effectiveness of said strike. This is what holds Israel back.

And if Iran does go nuclear....Obama, in his usual perverse way, will just blame Israel. Per him, it will all be Israel's fault for her "intransigence" with respect to the Palestinians (i.e., not willing to commit slow assisted suicide with a bogus "peace deal" with those murderous thugs of the PA).

So, either a massive crisis precipitated by an Israeli strike on Iran in open defiance of the U.S. under Obama, and all that entails...or a nuclear-armed Iran, and all THAT entails...that will be Obama's "legacy".

Mark my words. Within a couple of years, even the conservative wing of the MSM (e.g., George Will, Charles Krauthammer, etc.), will be scratching their heads and saying: "You know, when you stand back and look at it, all Obama ever really cared about was screwing Israel. This was the whole purpose of his presidency."

Some of you here ask why the Jews supported him. That's a whole 'nother kettle of fish...but speaking as a Jew myself who fought tooth and nail against him within my community, all I can say is this:

- In '08, they thought he was the second coming of FDR (which he was in many respects, just not good respects).

- In '12....I don't think the Jews here really supported him to the extent that published figures suggested. That was as boogered as the Obama admin's economic #'s on the eve of the election. Obama never needed Jewish support to win anyway...he needed the appearance of Jewish support in order to help him screw Israel in plain sight. As to those who really did support him in '12, this was mostly mass denial and an inability to admit they were wrong the first time around...stupid cringing cowardice/pride.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
I've been hearing that Iran could have a nuclear bomb within a few weeks or a few months. I've been hearing that statement for the past 10 years. What's the purpose of declaring the nuclear bomb is coming every week for the past 10 years? Fear mongering among the media and Obama will not be preemptive. Only Israel has the will and technology to stop this. Why are they waiting? Obama will never coperate with Israel on this matter.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
The ill wind is blowing, and Obama is standing with the muslims as he said he would do. Obama single handedly saved the Iranian Mad Mullah's dictatorship in the Student Protests of June, 2009. Singlehandedly.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
The hell of it all is obvious. The possibility of decisions being made here, and probably only here, to deal with this nightmare before it gets worse, exists. That Obama and friends threaten Israel to stop any action should be as clear by now. Any confrontation will be more deadly because of all the restraint, and the outcomes, even with military action by our forces and/or others - are going to be uncertain and probably not conclusive - until they are.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Barack Obama wanted a legacy: Now he has one that shall haunt us for many years to come.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
My guess is that the secret undisclosed part of the deal is that Iran won't use their bomb prior to November 2016.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
We were caught by surprise at Benghazi. But this is the second time Obama shows careless regard for the facts. He did not care about American lives at Benghazi and he still doesn't today. He has learned nothing because he just does not care. What is the purpose of Congress if it cannot stop Obama risking life on a scale of mass destruction? What is Congress good for if it cannot prevent a huge disaster such as a nuclear detonation? Everyone can see it coming exept Obama, and he can't see it because he does not care. Does Congress care?
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Count me as someone who always felt that nuclear-based aggression would never be attempted by anyone since the US and the rest if the world would come down on the aggressor so fast and so hard, it would be virtual suicide to try it.

But for the first time, I am not so sure about that. Let's say that Iran does attack Israel using nuclear weapons. It is perfectly plausible that after such an event, the Obama/Kerry regime, kindred governments in EU, Russia and China will strongly denouncing them but at the same time call for "restraint". . . don't escalate, negotiate, etc. The depraved and criminally delusional wackos that rule Iran must realize this. I fear that when they see the opportunity they will take it - knowing that there will be tremendous blow-back but not much retaliatory "blow up". Things will be sorted out afterwards, lame excuses will be given high credibility, Iran will somehow retain their sovereignty while accomplishing their long standing objective of crippling Israel.

You can really start to see why Israel takes a nuclear Iran so seriously and at the same time wonder how this administration gets such overwhelming support from the American Jewish community.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
You have summarized suicidal liberal foreign policy in a nutshell.
The American Jewish community you mention is dominated by secular (non-religious) Jews who vote consistently Left. With respect to the future of Judaism, they are also suicidal.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Well, s far as they can tell, they've won the last several confrontations with us. From their perspective, Saddam won the first Gulf War, and they are on their way towards winning the second. They've successfully driven us out of Afghanistan.

Heck, they survived sacking our embassy, and survived us backing Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war, and our various attempts at overthrowing them.

At this point, what real indication do they have that they would actually lose against us, if it came to a stand-up war?
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
A deal this bad and this obviously bad...has to have hidden wings that will sprout after the fact.

The "oops" factor, where this cabal pleads innocence...and them blames conservatives for the "unexpected" ugly result.

There is something dirty going on and we may never know, because our incurious media will help to hide it. The horrors that are lining up are getting too big too ignore.

Except for those who say looking at "hysterics".
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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