The Obama administration has criticized the Iranian regime and its policies while the United States and other countries have put tough sanctions on Iran. The question remains, however, how the Iranian rulers perceive the situation. In their speeches and writings, they argue that America is weak and crumbling. This is, in part, propaganda, but to a considerable degree it is also clear that they believe this to be true. An example of this is an article that has just appeared on Gerdab, a website run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, which concludes that America is so tired from being involved in so many wars that even if Iran makes an atomic bomb it will not attack Iran, nor will it allow Israel to take such action.
The Guards in their analysis quote British Middle East analyst Patrick Seale, who in recent comments pointed to the depletion of American stamina. Seale maintained that the U.S. has begun a quiet and deliberate withdrawal from the Middle East and that it is incapable of confronting Iran even if it is verified that the Iranians are on the verge of developing nuclear weapons.
The article states that it is a rare instance where Arab leaders, activists, intellectuals, and allies simultaneously face the same challenge they are all dealing with this summer. All equations inside and outside the Arab world are shifting.
According to the article quoting Seale, there are two main issues whose resolution will have major influence on the future of the Arab world. The first is clearer and that is regarding the revolutionary wave radiating throughout the region:
The main question therefore is, how can it be assured that the big burst of energy that produced the populistic force can have a positive effect; meaning that can this power that the Arab Spring created remain just, stable, and burgeoning, while making sure that it does not turn violent and chaotic?
The article continues that without a doubt the United States and its Western allies “will slowly but surely extricate their forces from the Middle East and Central Asia. Also, the security umbrella is from yesteryears (prior to the Second World War), which is conventional to the region, and will be effectively eliminated as well. This process has already begun in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and though there are the exceptional American bases in the Persian Gulf, they will not last very long either.”