Illinois Tailor-Made for Romney’s Moderate Conservatism
Nate Silver is calling the GOP primary contest on March 20 a “Battle of Chicago Versus Illinois.” This is how it has been in the Land of Lincoln for generations, as the state’s largest city, a bastion of liberalism and monolithic Democratic politics, has been constantly at odds with its more rural, traditional, and conservative Republican core.
Chicago has dominated this relationship largely because 2/3 of the state’s inhabitants live in the city proper, or one of its “collar counties.” And it is here that Mitt Romney’s fate in Illinois will be decided. Rick Santorum will do very well downstate, where voters are more religious and more conservative. Romney’s chances will depend on turning out the more upscale, better educated, and more secular voters found in Chicago’s vast suburban and ex-urban environs.
Romney has potentially more voters. Santorum has an edge in the enthusiasm of his followers. Can Romney overcome the demonstrated strong commitment to Santorum and muster the turnout necessary to beat his insurgent campaign?
A Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney with a 45-30 lead, while an ARG poll released on Monday also gives Romney a double-digit advantage. And a Rasmussen survey taken a few days earlier gave Romney a 9-point lead. But as Nate Silver points out, Santorum has been overperforming his poll numbers recently:
Rick Santorum did something unusual on Tuesday: he won a state, Mississippi, in which no poll had shown him with a lead.
This was not the first time. He did the same thing in Iowa, although the case could have been made that the polls there were understating his momentum.
Mr. Santorum had also never led a survey of Colorado voters, although there was just one poll there. And he trailed either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich in the last seven polls of Alabama, although he did hold a lead in one survey of the state earlier on.
Silver’s model for Mississippi gave Santorum only a 2% chance of winning that race. But it may be asking a lot for the candidate to overcome Romney in a state that is tailor-made for his brand of Republicanism. Illinois’ history is replete with GOP moderates winning statewide races, including recent governors Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, and George Ryan, as well as a tradition of Senate moderates like Everett Dirksen and Charles Percy.
But the party has changed over the last 20 years and moderates have a far more difficult time in state-wide primaries. Moderate State Senator Kirk Dillard lost to social conservative Bill Brady in the GOP contest for governor in 2010. Brady narrowly lost to the politically damaged Democrat Pat Quinn, who served as impeached Governor Rod Blagojevich’s lieutenant governor. But current GOP Senator Mark Kirk (rehabbing from a serious stroke) seems to have bridged the gap between the social right and more secular-oriented conservatives with a successful 2010 campaign that stressed economic issues and his leadership qualities.
I wonder how many dead people will vote in the primary? Remember, Kennedy’s dad was able to buy up a lot of votes in Illinois, so hopefully whoever the Republican candidate is he will have learned that lesson well. Money talks in Illinois, especially in Chicago. May as well get used to it now before the general election when the Democrats will really start buying up votes in the “State of Lincoln.” State of corruption is more like it.
Sorry, but all those dead people are Democrats, and it is a closed primary.
You can declare your party at the poll and vote anyway if not challenged, but it will mean you get Republican junk mail solicitations for a year or two. Dead Democrats HATE Republican solicitations.
Its an open primary – you request a particular ballot upon arrival.
Why are we even wasting our time talking about Sanctimonious Santorum?
Sanctimonious Santorum has ZERO chance of defeating Romney for the Republican nomination.
It is going to be Romney vs. Obama in 2012. You can set it in stone. You can take it to the bank.
The Republicans are going to have to reconcile themselves to the candidacy of Mitt Romney. That is, unless they want to have Obama for another 4 years.
The Evangelical and Fundamentalist Christians are going to have to get over their anti-Mormon bigotry. Their bigotry and irrationality is sickening. “Mormons aren’t Christians.” Don’t give me that crap! It is a sect of Christianity. The Christophobes have taught you that you should hate other sects of Christianity. That’s a Divide and Conquer tactic of the Christophobes. You’re playing right into their hands. It’s like the Sunnis and Shiites fighting with each other… Romney was a missionary for his religion — a sect of Christianity. What have you done for Christianity?
Here is why Santorum has gained in popularity. Republicans have fell into the libral trap. I suggest everyone who cares about this party to read this article. Romney is the bullseye and the liberal media has operatives workng non-stop to invade all conservative websites with plants.
I am sure many of you have spotted them here in the comment section on PJ Media.
Wake up: http://uspolitics.about.com/od/CampaignsElections/a/Operation-Hilarity-In-Election-2012.htm
What have I done? I’ve been an Evangelical missionary for 23 years in, of all places, Greece. Biblically speaking, Mormonism is a cult. That’s just an unavoidable theological truth.
Anyway, that’s irrelevant to me. I don’t care about Romney’s Mormonism. We’re free to choose our religion. That’s what America’s all about. Romney’s a good guy with a stable family and he had a good relationship with his father. He got where he is by outworking everybody else. Plus, he’s smart as a whip. He’s the best candidate. I’ll be happy to vote for him. And pray for him, as well. I think he’ll do a good job.
I keep hearing this trope, and I keep seeing the polls, and I keep NOT meeting ANY Christians who will refuse to vote for Romney because of his Mormonism. Something is amiss.
What I meet are Christians like me who are looking at his liberal track record and saying NO WAY.
I lived in Salt Lake City. I voted for Mormons for local, state, and national office. Some of them because they were really good candidates, some of them because they were mediocre but at least not Democrats.
What do you know about it? Are you aware that the Mormon church refused to be called Christian up until the 1980s? That at that point, they realized they had an image problem and began a deliberate program of trying to paint themselves as “just another Christian denomination”? Do you know that in 2002 the President of the LDS issued an order that Mormons were to stop using the word Mormon? Did you know that Brigham Young once said that the Christian devil was the Mormon God, and vice versa? Are you aware that Mormon doctrine on all essential points is 180 degrees removed from the doctrines of historic Christianity? For example, are you aware that all Christian denominations have always held that there is only ONE God, and that Mormons believe in a plurality of Gods? (uncounted millions, actually).
There is not a single point that historic Christianity considers essential to the very meaning of Christianity on which Mormons are not completely opposed.
Yes, they use the same terms, but the meanings behind those terms are completely opposite the meanings of historic Christianity.
Larry, Curly, and Moe decided to form a club. They got together and created bylaws and all that. The purpose of their club was to promote the breeding and care of Welsh ponies. They called it the Welsh Pony Club.
Years went by, and the club grew. Daughter clubs sprung up, each with it’s own emphasis, but all dedicated to the breeding and care of Welsh ponies. Sometimes they disagreed on HOW best to do so, but they all wanted to promote the breeding and care of Welsh ponies. Sometimes they even fought with each other over the best ways, but they all wanted to promote the breeding and care of Welsh ponies. Sometimes they behaved very badly in their disagreements.
Then along came Abbot and Costello. They said that all the original Welsh Pony clubs were wrong. They said that what Larry, Curly, and Moe meant by BREEDING was actually KILLING Welsh Ponies. They said that what Larry, Curly, and Moe meant by CARING was actually CUTTING. They did all they could to persuade people that the original Welsh Pony Clubs were all wrong.
That didn’t go over very well, so they started trying to pass themselves off as members of the original club. They said they were just like all the rest, but with some minor differences.
Do the members of the original Welsh Pony clubs have the right to call them imposters?
Or don’t they?
Does someone who is not part of either group, and who doesn’t know anything about either group, have any right to comment on the matter?
“What do you know about it?”
I know a few things. Let me address your best points:
“Do you know that in 2002 the President of the LDS issued an order that Mormons were to stop using the word Mormon?”
“Mormons” have been uncomfortable with the term Mormons for a lot longer than that. They fear that the nickname can be derogatory. Imagine how Catholics would feel if you called them “Augustinians” or German reformers if you called them “Lutherans”. You can see how they might be conflicted. OTH, the full name is “members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints”, which is a mouthful.
“…180 degrees removed from the doctrines of historic Christianity? For example, are you aware that all Christian denominations have always held that there is only ONE God, and that Mormons believe in a plurality of Gods? (uncounted millions, actually).”
Mormons do not worship or follow multitudes of Gods. Any talk of “gods” is a description of heaven. When it comes to worship. they follow three: the Father, Son and Holy Ghost. They view these as three separate beings who act with a single purpose. Compared to mainstream Christianity, they put more emphasis on the separateness, less on the unity and reject the term “trinity”.
“There is not a single point that historic Christianity considers essential to the very meaning of Christianity on which Mormons are not completely opposed.”
How about the inerrancy of the Old and New Testament? Mormons believe these are the word of God “as far as they are translated (and transcribed) correctly”. I think you’ll find that to a more robust statement of confidence than you will get from you average Episcopalian or Presbyterian.
It is forbidden to vote for Romney the Mormon.
Anyone who votes for Romney the Mormon is committing a sin against God.
Whoever votes for Romney the Mormon is going straight to hell.
Whoever votes for Romney the Mormon will have to answer to God for it.
Mormonism is not Christianity.
Mormonism is a cult.
Mitt Romney is a demonic cultist.
We will expose the Mormon cult for what it is.
Mormons are not Christians.
If, God forbid, Romney the Mormon is elected President of the United States of America, God will judge America, and give us what we deserve — hell on earth, the destruction of the United States of America, and the end of our way of life.
Which Democrat group do you work for?
To coin a quote from “Tropic Thunder”…
No on goes full retard.
Hey, let the mormon bigotry go…it makes you look ignorant and unprepared for conversation with most adults.
Pieter, can’t you see the put on. He is an Obama Democrat spreading discord. That is their way, the Saul Alinsky sneaky way. Pay the a**hole no attention. He wasn’t even clever about it.
But you, sir, perhaps unwittingly, are displaying big time insensitivity toward mentally slow people, and causing pain to their loved ones. If the N word is no longer in polite discourse, so too the R word.
To coin a quote from “Tropic Thunder”…
No on goes full r****d.
Hey, let the mormon bigotry go…it makes you look ignorant and unprepared for conversation with most adults.
To coin a quote from “Tropic Thunder”…
No on goes full…well, you know the rest.
Hey, let the mormon bigotry go…it makes you look ignorant and unprepared for conversation with most adults.
Obviously he’s joking. Man, people are gullible.
Dood sounds real to me. What do I know – I’m a HUGE Obama supporter.
Sorry to hear that, comrade Lonnie. ABO2012
Republicans are irrational.
They would rather have a Marxist (with 2 Muslim fathers & attended a madrassa in Indonesia) than a Mormon in the White House.
If Romney was a Southern Baptist, you would all be supporting him.
The Evangelicals are stuck with a Mormon, 2 Catholics & Ron Paul. It is hilarious.
The Republicans are going to have to reconcile themselves to the candidacy of Mitt Romney — unless they want Barrack Obama to get another 4 years. The Evangelical and Fundamentalist Christians are going to have to get over their anti-Mormon bigotry.
He’s still a liberal, so no, we would not be.
Have you paid ANY attention to his track record?
What do you know about him, Mark V? Come on down from there, you might fall down. ABO
yo mittbots romneycare romney is a paler version of “mr big gov’t” baracky
Conservatives are to be proud that Romney does well in Obama’s backyard for what reason?
The unrepentant godfather of Obamacare is a hero to the folks in Illinois. What a surprise. Hooray.
If Romney does well in the urban areas let that speak volumes.
Most of the states Romney has won have been because he won the big cities. Just look at the county maps for the various states, nearly all of his support is in one or two areas in each state and that’s about it.
I have noticed that, comrade TrueBlue. Romney is strong in the ONLY places comrade Obama even has a chance to win.
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKzJtG3ecnc&feature=youtu.be
He can’t get a break from this bog!
Silver misunderstands the error in the polling for Alabama and Mississippi. In both states there were relatively few polls because they weren’t expected to matter, so none of the pollsters had a strong series of baseline samples. Two other factors besides merely under-reading Santorum’s support were in play.
First, unlike some of the other states where crossover voting is rare, it happens all the time in the South. We’re used to it, and it happens both ways. The polls didn’t measure Democrats crossing over very accurately.
The other factor is the response rate. Santorum’s strongest demographic, the white evangelicals with less than a college education. These folks are the least likely to agree to talk to a pollster, especially a robo-poll or someone with a Yankee accent. So the under-measurement was built in and they didn’t have time to correct for it.
We’ll see how they do in Louisiana.
Ha! I’m non-evangelical and college educated, but Yankee accents (and attitudes) give me a headache. Go figyuh….
Anyone else notice how the stupid guy in every Hollywood movie is portrayed with a slow talking southern accent? I have too, and it annoys me that Hollywood is always this ignorant. Ever notice that Bill Maher does the slow talking southerner whenever he launches into one of his diatribes about non-communists? That guy is a complete moron and he thinks he is smart. I will have to give it to him that he makes a lot of money pandering to useful idiots everywhere. I know comrade Obama loves him.
What a baby! Are you kidding me? Take your ball and go home then because your guy isn’t going to win the nomination. Are you gonna pull the lever for Obama, Rick? Are yah? Are yah? So sick of the “Santorum is the real conservative” meme. What a load of horse manure. I can’t imagine EVER voting for another Senator or Representative again if he or she is running for president. Don’t you get it? America needs a leader not a stinking cheerleader. Santorum, like Obama, doesn’t know beans about leadership. Sens and Reps don’t have the chops for leadership. They are all about give and take, go along to get along. I am telling you, nothing is more important in choosing a president than a demonstrated ability to lead. Those who don’t get this are usually people who have never run their own business, or managed employees, planned budgets, filed tax returns, etc.
Run on home, Rick. You stinking cry baby.
There’s one of the more ridiculous… no, make that, non-thinking statements I’ve seen about politics.
I’m confused. The Mittster proclaimed himself “severely” Conservative at CPAC and now you’re telling me he’s a “moderate” Conservative? Should I conclude that what’s “hard right” for Mitt is a gently sweeping leftward curve for the rest of us? Well, that conclusion would be more in line with historical Mitt who stated in 2002 “I’m not a partisan Republican,” Romney said. “I’m someone who is moderate, and . . . my views are progressive.”
So isn’t Mitt really a progressive moderate Republican… and didn’t we already know that? Isn’t that why he gets very little traction with the base? Of course, I don’t want to overlook the possibility that Mitt suffers from Multiple Political Personality Disorder (MPPD). MPPD is a serious disease that most often effects Liberals during the run-up to an election as they seek to reflect the Conservative values of their constituency, and thus win the election. MPPD is a short-lived disease that passes once the last ballot is cast.
For some reason nobody wants to admit this, but the “moderate” Romney consistently does better among Republican voters, while the “conservative” Santorum consistently does better among non-Republicans.
In Alabama, for example, Santorum beat Romney 34% to 30% among Republicans, but won the non-Republican vote (Democrats and independents) 33% to 27%. And non-Republicans made up 30% of the voters.
In Michigan 40% of primary voters were Democrats or independents. This group voted for Santorum. Romney beat Santourm by eleven percentage points among Republicans.
In Ohio 31% of the primary voters were Democrats or independents. Again this group supported Santorum, while again Romney did better than Santorum among Republicans.
Can Santorum pull an upset in Illinois? The answer to that will depend on how many non-Republicans vote in the Republican primary. The more non-Republicans the better Santorums chances are. Which is a peculiar thing to say about the “conservative” candidate.
Santorum’s “conservative” voters are confused. They are mistaking populism with conservatism.
“Moderate Conservatism”????? Seriously? Did you really publish that phrase? What the hell does that mean? There is no moderate conservatism. You either take a liberal stance on an issue, or you take a conservative stance on the issue. A politician is either down the line liberal, down the line conservative, or a mish-mash of both. The latter is liberal on some things, and conservative on others – if you have an opinion on something one way or the other, you are not a moderate.
In Romney’s case? Hmmm. I see no issue on which he has taken the conservative position during his political career. He’s a lib – plain and simple.
Mark, you’re misstating the facts. Romney has taken several conservative positions. At least, so he SAYS.
These are completely at odds with his track record, but still, it remains a fact that he has claimed to be conservative on several issues.
Given Romney’s track record, and the well-known propensity of politicians to lie, why people are fooled by this is a mystery.
Yeah, I keep having to remind myself. Romney’s a “severe” conservative. How could I forget? Silly me.
So, I take it you think conservative is the opposite of liberal? Conservatives like big government as much as liberals do. They just want the money spent in different places, I says.
No Jim, you’re referring to what’s known as an establishment Republican. Conservatives don’t follow the party line. That’s why even the R’s hate us. Welcome to Romney Republicanism.
There will always be an excuse why he might win. Not because they see good in the man, and like what he says. NO! We have to have a reason why he wins.
What a bunch of jerks!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKzJtG3ecnc&feature=youtu.be
Everybody: memorize this:
OBAMA = ECONMIC STAGNATION + NEW RECESSION + AMERICAN DECLINE
ROMNEY = ECONOMIC SURGE + RETURN OF PROSPERITY + AMERICAN RESURGENCE
As someone else on these blogs keeps saying: argue about the other stuff after Romney becomes President.