Hurricane Season 2010: Ominous Signs
The 2010 hurricane season is underway, and with all eyes on the spill in the Gulf there are strong signals from nature that this year will be much different from 2009.
Last year, there were only three hurricanes. The long-term average is 10 tropical storms, six that develop into hurricanes. The season runs from the first of June to the end of November — hurricanes only form over water that is 80 degrees or warmer, as the Atlantic Ocean is usually not warm enough to support hurricanes in June and July. But this year, we’ve already got Alex, so we are off and running. Generally the warmer the water, the greater the chance there will be a stormy season. But there are other important factors.
As a reference for how active the Atlantic can get, we need only to go back to the amazing season of 2005. That year the very warm water temperatures generated 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes — both of these figures are records. In fact, the National Hurricane Center ran out of names! After Hurricane Wilma, the Greek alphabet was used to name the storms. This was the first time this had ever happened since the naming of tropical storms and hurricanes started in 1953.
So what made 2005 such a crazy and deadly season? There are several factors involved, but one of the most important is not even directly connected to the Atlantic Ocean. There is a warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Straddling the equator, the water from the coast of South America out to the International Date Line will warm significantly for up to a year and a half — this is the well known El Nino. Sometimes the water will cool significantly for a similar period, which is the less known but equally significant La Nina.
Hurricanes are strongly affected by strong winds. You might say, wait a minute: hurricanes are storms with very strong winds — how can they be affected by other strong winds? It starts with what El Nino does to the atmosphere. El Nino’s warm water heats up the air above it. This warming causes rising motion in the air as the atmosphere becomes more buoyant. This warm rising air collects more moisture, and makes clouds and storms. The way the atmosphere compensates for this unusual storminess is to create strong winds high above the ocean. In a way, it’s similar to what we do when we become overheated — we turn on a fan to carry the heat away from out bodies.
The winds blow from the west to the east up at thirty to sixty thousand feet. As these winds blow out over the Atlantic Ocean during the hurricane season, they can literally decapitate developing hurricanes. As a fledgling tropical storm tries to stick its head higher and higher into the sky, the El Nino winds lop it off, effectively killing the storm. As a result, we usually see fewer and weaker hurricanes during El Nino hurricane seasons.
La Nina conditions have the opposite effect.
Seasonal predictions of tropical storms and hurricanes have proven themselves to be notoriously bad. Let’s face facts, while we do know and partially understand a few of the influences to our weather, comprehensive knowledge of the complete weather and climate process is sorely lacking. Coastal residents, I wouldn’t be packing up my precious belongings just yet.
Meh. Evert year since 2005 was predicted to be “the Really Big One”. Obviously if we wait long enough the prophesy will be fulfilled.
1. Since weather seems to be a chaotic effect of a circular chain reaction of a number of variables greater than we can track, I would trust an “old salt’s” hackles and knees for an accurate prediction of this hurricane season before any scientist. Why? Because both are just guessing based on a few inputs, and the “Old Salt” has seen more sea duty than the scientist.
2. We are now one and a half months into the official Atlantic hurricane season, and we have officially had only one fairly minor hurricane that smacked into Mexico, and dumped a great deal of rain on a very parched southwest Texas and no tropical storms beyond that. Right now, Virginia is dry, even the humidity is low (50% here is like the desert…) Some tropical rain patterns would be a welcomed relief, though it is too late for the farmers in the area. Nothing much has developed, however.
3. We will always pay at some point for the things that we need. The old Confederacy, and up the Atlantic seaboard depend on tropical storms to water the crops and keep the reservoirs filled. With no storm pattern we get precious little rain. The trade off is that a healthy rain conveyor also brings with it the occasional hard punch in the gut from a major storm. Such is the life in Temperate zones. Hurricanes are generated due to those factors that you stated, plus that old need to “average out extrememes” in the weather.
4. I predict that the first half of the hurricane season will be mild. We are just not seeing the moisture that we normlly do for hurricane seasons with heavy activity. 2005 was a wet year. And summer wasn’t hot.
I also predict that there might be a really bad streak as that warm water reacts with the cooling air as fall approaches. That is where your local churn will start to occur. So September-November might very well be much worse than average. But the weather doesn’t obey the Federal government and stick to the plan much. It also is pretty ignorant of the calendar so the average this… and average that assertions tend to be guesses along the grand Chaos curve.
I don’t have the official creds… so A) If I am wrong no one much cares… and B) I have lived here since 1973… so I have seen these cycles come and go. Chaos is what it is… all things average out along a trend line that is its own and not much understood by mere mortals or their computers.
We’ll be fine… and maybe if we built stuff that was hurricane “proof” we’d lose less, too.
r/The Mighty Fahvaag
All seasonal prediction do is prove Monte Carlo simulations don’t do much for you — But raise insurance rates.
Too bad all that dust is being blown off the Sahara. All that hurricane busting dusting is going to get in the way of the fun for the doomsayers. Yes we do have satellites that can show it, and this year it’s huge, stretching all the way across the Atlantic.
Hurricane predicting — Kind of like the results the climate modelers get, which is why they simulate what will happen when everybody alive today has died. I wonder, has anybody found Al Gore’s CO2 blanket yet?
And I ask you…so freaking what?!?! What are we all to do about it?
Can’t see a hurricane coming from MILES and MILES away?! Your problem. Won’t move out of it’s way? Suffer your own consequences.
I’m TIRED of doom and gloom weather predictions.
Sheesh!
Mr. Horn,
With all due respect, I echo the sentiment of most posters. The predictability of hurricane seasons has been poor to say the least.
Yes, the ‘La Nina’ upper leevl winds can help or hinder a hurricane’s strength, though La Nina, much like ‘El Nino’ operates on a rough-like pattern. This year doesn’t promise to bring about strong, upper-level support. Nonetheless, the season is early.
I think that Art wrote a reasonable article with reasonable caveats.
It is hot as hell here in New England, after the warmest Spring overall, since they began keeping records, and not enough rain. Fortunately I have my own well, and had my earliest corn ever.
While my neighborhood has had below average rainfall, a community just forty miles away had a mega-cloudburst which left their emergency center underwater, flooding more than twenty cruisers and motorcycles. EEE is showing up early, but with the dry conditions, there should be fewer mosquitoes, although that can change in a hurry after one tropical system passes through. Damned Obama!
Will the Gulf oil spill have an effect? Will oil on the water cause lower than usual evaporation? Or will that be too insignificant to have much effect? (I am only asking questions; I have no idea.)
re the impact of oil spill on storm development – fuhgeddabahdit – this will have no effect. An oil-rich storm surge would be bad, but the oil spill will have zero impact on storm development
Geraldo Rivera will be extremely disappointed this year if he is unable to hang on to a tree while reporting the speed of wind gusts on his pocket “wind-o-meter”! Just hope that his camera doesn’t once again record people strolling by unmolested by the wind while he’s busy sensationalizing the brutality of the storm… too funny!
manbearpig is coming!!!!!!!
Al “I really need a massage” Gore
The difficulty in predicting what will happen within a few months time frame weather-wise (not to mention the iffiness of a 7 day forecast) should give any thinking person enough reason to pause over the predictions of global warming by the IPPC NOAA and NASA for predictions of 10-50 years from now.
I thought 2008 and 2009 were supposed to be the years of “major” hurricanes. . . .even a broken clock is right twice a day. . . . say it long enough and it may happen. what other job (other than a politician) can you be wrong at least half the time and get paid? My son calls meteorologists “liarologists” and he calls the FOX21 chief meteorologist (Kendra Kent) “Kendra Can’t” because she can’t get the forecast right. He is only 11 but he can figure it out. If they can’t get the weather right 5 days out, how the @@## can they predict “global warming” or is it climate change now?
So when we can now watch a hurricane track from the coast of Africa, until it hits us, but they can’t predict for sure, which way it will turn, and we can see systems coming from across the country, or storms on the radar a few miles or a few hundred miles away, but sometimes these storms just go “poof,” your position is that weathermen don’t know nuthin and Kendra can’t?
I am pretty impressed with what our weather technology can show us. That is not to say that AGW has been adequately proved, but damn, this summer you don’t need a weatherman to tell you that it is damned hot.
Remember how Al Gore screeched post Katrina that greater and greater hurricanes were coming as a result of AGW. It didn’t happen. In fact, Katrina seemed to be the finale in a string of bad hurrican seasons. Since Katrina everyone under the sun has been eager not to have egg on their faces and been quick with dire predictions which have clearly not happened. In the last five years I can’t think of any major hurricanes that touched land.
Eventually, the factors that lead to devestating hurricanes will eventually be ripe again, and another Cat 5 hurricane will tear accross those areas that have been living with them for literally centuries. As the United States’ population continues to grow and more people are building near the Gulf and Atlantic seaboard, the potential for catastrophe increases. Common sense would not try to blame humans for clearly cyclical hurricane patterns, but we don’t live in an age with much common sense, do we?
This was probably the most understandable explanation of the El Nino/ La Nina phenomena that I’ve ever read. I’ll make sure to bookmark your site. I’ll also ancticipate future updates. Thanks a mil!!!
If this, If that, lot of ifs there, Southern Cal has had a very mild summer, La Nina? who knows. I do know this, The Eastern Pacific has had 3 named storms in the “cold water” Mr. Horn describes, so which is it? Is there really a point to this article at all? We ARE DOOMED!! Run!
/sarc
P.S. That’s 3 named storms This Season,
B
The PDO seems to have a strong influence on the El Nino/La Nina cycle. There are more and stronger El Ninos when the PDO is in it’s positive cycle, and there are more and stronger La Nina when the PDO is in it’s negative cycle.
The PDO went from positive to negative a few years ago.
The northern hemisphere also appears to warm substantially during a positive PDO as well. (The PDO takes about 60 to 70 years to complete a full cycle.)
Art-there is one other factor that often affects the Atlantic hurricane season and thats how warm the North African desert is early in the spring. When the warm air spills out over the horse latitudes, it often helps the water warm quicker. The Polar jet usually runs north of the 35N latitude after the start of spring, while the subtropical jet comes north of the southern US coast, so tropical storms dont have to worry about strong westerly winds tearing them apart if they start forming early in summer. I havent followed African weather patterns this year, but Im betting temps in the Sahara we warmer earlier in the year tahn normal.
Observations on 3 Anniversaries–Katrina, “I Have a Dream,” and Mother Theresa
This past weekend witnessed a trifecta of momentous anniversaries. Katrina happened 5 years ago, Martin Luther King, Jr. delivered his “I Have a Dream Speech” on the Washington Mall 47 years ago, and Mother Theresa was born a century ago.
It is already five years since August 29th, 2005, since the incredibly devastating Category 3 hurricane Katrina, the costliest storm in our history, the deadliest storm to strike the United States in 83 years, all but wiped out much of the City of New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward as well as laying waste to vast other areas of the Gulf Coast.
Testimony to the remarkable resilience of humankind and the human spirit, with the exception of that Ninth Ward, an area catastrophically flooded by Katrina’s storm surge, reinundated a month later by Hurricane Rita, and still largely devastated, most affected Gulf Coast communities have been rebuilt, if not fully recovered.
Much, perhaps too much, has been written about the failures surrounding Katrina: the failures of the levees, the failures of Michael Brown and FEMA, the failures of Democrat Governor Kathleen Blanco and the Republican President George W. Bush, the failures of the Superdome, the failures of government in general in not doing more to alert New Orleans of the impending disaster, to save more lives, to assist in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane, to reconstruct the destroyed, and to console the afflicted.
That focus on failure may have been “too much” for three significant reasons, the first of which is a reason based on the common sense shared by ten year olds but not by politicians, city planners, and builders. . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=1869)