Hugo Chavez: Circling the Drain?
President Obama, whom lots of folks are disappointed in and who many now think is no better than his predecessor, has problems beyond Massachusetts. However, “El Presidente” Hugo Chávez of Venezuela has far worse problems, at least for now. And so does Venezuela.
This gets it about right:
Like the emperor in the fairy tale, the Chávez administration now stands naked before the world and is finding it increasingly difficult to cover up the disaster it has created with its ill-named 21st century socialism.
There is a trend in Latin America, and it favors free market capitalism rather than “Bolivarian socialism.” As suggested in previous articles (here, here, here, and here), Chávez’s ship is on the rocks, getting clobbered by twin storms, and may soon be crushed.
On January 8, Chavez announced a substantial devaluation of the Venezuelan currency (the bolivar fuerte). His stated purpose was to reduce Venezuelan reliance on imported goods, and thereby to stimulate the economy. As with so many of his schemes, the effects will be counterproductive and very unpleasant for most of the people living in Venezuela.
Venezuela’s official exchange rate had been 2.15 bolivars to the dollar. Due to the January 11 devaluation, the bolivar trades at 2.6 to the dollar for priority transactions and 4.3 to the dollar for other transactions:
The higher rate doubles the paper value of oil earnings when converted to local currency. Oil accounts for about half the budget, but that income has been squeezed by lower world oil prices and declines in output in the past year.
The president … said the adjusted currency rates aimed to boost the economy by encouraging local manufacturing of items such as clothing and shoes, which Venezuela mostly imports.
“This is going to generate greater productivity in Venezuela!” Chávez said in his televised speech.
Chávez also stated:
Last year we imported 90-million pairs of shoes, for the love of God. … We can make all of that ourselves!
That certainly is a lot of shoes for a poor country with a population of 26,814,843 — roughly 3.4 pair for each man, woman, and child, imported in one year. Imelda Marcos must be living incognito and very happily in Venezuela.
The 4.3 BF to the dollar rate applies, among other things, to imported vehicles, telecommunications goods, computers, appliances, alcohol, and tobacco. It also applies to substantial portions of the raw materials imported by local manufacturers. However, it does not apply to whale sperm, pickles, and the pain reliever codeine, which will be considered essential goods. (Whale sperm is allegedly a good hair conditioner.) Currently, the informal (black market) exchange rate is at 5.80 BF to the dollar; it will probably get worse.
Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez acknowledged that the devaluation should add 3 percent to 5 percent to inflation this year. That is almost certainly a low-ball guesstimate, and inflation in Venezuela is already the highest in Latin America and the highest of the seventy-eight countries tracked by Bloomberg. On January 15, Chávez announced a twenty-five percent increase in the national minimum wage (10 percent in March and 15 percent in September, coinciding with the September national elections) to blunt the estimated “3 to 5 percent” increase in inflation over 2009 which was “only” 25.9 percent. Not great, but better than Zimbabwe, where prices double daily.
All there problems are Bushes fault!Hey, Barry seems to think it works here.
Any gas companies executives out there care to invest billions of dollars developing Venezuela’s substantial natural gas reserves?!?
Anyone with halve a brain knows that Chávez will eventually take over any foreign gas investment/company,
unless Americas new earthquake weapon destroys their reserves,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/01/21/chavez_us_weapon_test_caused_haiti_earthquake.html
Chávez’s major income cash cow will be gone by Christmas.
And unless the Venezuelan people hang him first he will probably flee also.
Chávez’s ‘hope and change’ socialist Utopia paradise has turned into a Venezuelan dog and pony clown act.
But we need to remember,
Venezuela is only a mirror reflection of what could happen/is happening to our American economy under the ‘hope and change’ act of 2009.
Mr Miller:
Excellent roundup! Thank you, and please continue to keep us updated.
There is no good reason to think his successor will be any better, or that Venezuelans will actually learn anything from the brief Age of Chavez (somehow, it will all turn out to be America’s fault!).
Still, it will be gratifying to watch this particular brute meet his fate.
What’s this WOULD BE dictator mean ? If he isn’t a dictator then who is ?
If I’m not mistaken, anything going down the drain in the southern hemisphere circles to the ‘left’. Hugo might have made note of this before launching his “Bolivar Revolution”.
I guess we should break out that nifty “earthquake weapon” Chavez insists we have (since WE caused the Haiti earthquake according to him) and rattle his cage a bit.
Argentina is certainly circling the drain from your description, but how hard will Chavez fight to maintain power? How likely is it that he can or will be peacefully removed?
Of course, like all the caudillos before him, Chavez’ has one obvious option to get his country back on track economically, one that goes back to Revolutionary France;
1. Pick a rich, or at least reasonably well-off, neighbor with a less combat-capable military;
2. Declare them “The Enemy”;
3. Invade and conquer;
4. Loot.
From all indications, Hugo has already picked Colombia as his first target.
It will be interesting to see how he goes about “justifying” it. Zelaya will probably be at least part of said “justification”.
It will be even more interesting to see how The One, and The Hill, will react.
Or more likely completely fail to “notice”.
clear ether
eon
Here is the “straight poop” on what’s happening in Venezuela. It’s all a big Obama plot to instigate a coup against Chávez, who recently proclaimed that the earthquake in Haiti was caused by U.S. weapons tests off the coast of that country. According to el Presidente, the weapons were being tested prior to their use in Iran.
…really sad that the POTUS is using the same strategies in the USA.
remember poor baby Hugo wasn’t quite this irrational when he started but one could see the nutty ideas were there. O-bum-a is the same.
Left radicals never accede to failure, they just get harder and turn to violence.
Don’t bet Hugo flies out like Perez and Lusinchi. He’ll break out the Hollywood stars and the Black Caucus first, then the riot squads then the murder squads and the camps. Preview of America 2015.
8. eon:
From all indications, Hugo has already picked Colombia as his first target.
……I doubt he will attack anyone. he is all bluff. he would get a severe a@@kicking if the military wouldn’t just put the first shot through his fat skull.
The number of businesses temporarily shuttered for “speculative” price increases is now up to 1,500 and the law permitting expropriation of businesses was approved by the National Assembly on January 21.
The National Assembly, which is dominated by Chávez allies, approved the measures during a second and final debate a day after Chavez signed a decree to expropriate the Exito retail chain, which is part of the corporation Cadena de Tiendas Venezolanas, in which the majority shareholder is the French company Casino Guichard Perrachon SA.
“Chavez signed a decree to expropriate the Exito retail chain”
How many people are aware that Argentina was one of the wealthier countries on this planet at the turn of the twentieth century? The Peron regime severely damaged its economy. It expropriated properties owned by foreign oil companies. There is a major problem, however, with such behavior: you can normally screw your victim only once! They won’t allow you to take advantage of them a second time. It will take decades before Venezuela regains the trust of outside investors.
14. David Thomson:
“Chavez signed a decree to expropriate the Exito retail chain”
How many people are aware that Argentina was one of the wealthier countries on this planet at the turn of the twentieth century? The Peron regime severely damaged its economy. It expropriated properties owned by foreign oil companies. There is a major problem, however, with such behavior: you can normally screw your victim only once! They won’t allow you to take advantage of them a second time. It will take decades before Venezuela regains the trust of outside investors.
sort of ..but the part about “you can only screw them once” doesn’t work.
if nothing else south america proves you can do it over and over and over.
China under Mao could not maintain dams ether. China had two Dam collapses in the 50-60′s killing ten’s of thousands.
I am glad Venezuela’s negative example is on full display for the rest of Latin America.
Actually, you’re being way to generous, I was thinking toilet bowl instead of drain, but whatever works. Now after Mass. I’m curious to see just how pragmatic the President will be.
Pointing out the obvious about Hugo and socialism will not sway any of the marxists. They will just say Hugo didn’t do enough socialism.
When I was in Venezuela years ago, I was told a story about a crew race. One boat was Venezuelan, the other German. The Germans won. The German boat had one boss and the rest were oarsmen. The Venezuelan boat had one oarsman and the rest were bosses (jefes). In the postmortem, the Venezuelans tried to figure out why they had lost. They decided that they hadn’t had enough jefes.
teh ameriknz n teh joos cause teh erfquake, Hugo. Better be nice, or you’re next!
Please help me;I’m confused. Is this article about Chavez’ Venezuela,or Obama’s America?
12. john:
8. eon:
From all indications, Hugo has already picked Colombia as his first target.
……I doubt he will attack anyone. he is all bluff. he would get a severe a@@kicking if the military wouldn’t just put the first shot through his fat skull.
Colombia’s military is almost certainly more capable than Venezuela’s at this time.
21. deguello:
Please help me;I’m confused. Is this article about Chavez’ Venezuela,or Obama’s America?
that is understandable. …there is very little difference. less every day.
deguello — both.
eon
“Of course, like all the caudillos before him, Chavez’ has one obvious option to get his country back on track economically, one that goes back to Revolutionary France”
uh, you still haven’t incorporated that french revolution wasn’t about sovietisation, but to allow that poors could become landowners too
#8 eon:
Chavez would never wage war against Colombia. His rhetoric is mere saber rattling, a vain attempt to distract Venezuelans from their atrocious domestic situation. Chavez may be crazy, but he’s not stupid. The scrawny Venezuelan army would be no match against a battle-hardened Colombian army more than twice its size. Venezuela’s oil fields and refineries would make huge targets for the Colombian Air Force. If bombed, Venezuela’s economy would be crippled within weeks.
Above all, Chavez is a survivor. He knows he would not survive a major Colombian onslaught.
#9 Dan
“Chávez, who recently proclaimed that the earthquake in Haiti was caused by U.S. weapons test… ”
Wow, Chavez just invented the “seismic gun”! Forget plate tectonics. From now on, any new tremors in Haiti or Iran -or anywhere else Chavez so asserts- will be America’s fault… It’s amazing how Chavez never misses an opportunity to make a buffoon of himself. Next he’ll be alleging the US is weaponizing meteors, and training space aliens as interstellar mercenaries bent on melting his brain…
Also, according to Chavez, the US is sending troops to Haiti as part of a secret invasion plan to conquer Haiti. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60G2DW20100117
Yes, because we need to guarantee the steady flow of voodoo dolls and mud pies into American markets…
Not to be outdone, the French have seconded Chavez in this accusation. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/haiti/7020908/US-accused-of-occupying-Haiti-as-troops-flood-in.html
It’s ironic to hear Haiti’s former colonial overlords, who exploited Haiti for over a century, now accusing someone else of “occupying” it.
According to this article, the problems with generation and distribution of electricity are causing substantial usage of small gasoline and diesel generators, which could impact adversely Venezuela’s ability to export petroleum.
Sales of gasoline- and diesel-powered electricity generators are skyrocketing as failures in the national grid leave swathes of Venezuela in the dark, threatening to further depress exports from OPEC nation
look we are the second country in the world with the greatest volumen of oil, we export oil not refined, here in Venezuela we full our cars with 50 cents of us dolars, how’s that? electricity bill super cheap, the poverty is reducing a lot, rice and corn are cheap, but all electronics are expensive i’m taking a pc a ipod etc
Dan Miller: Please give me a shout if you get wind that there are Venezuelan troops amassing on the Colombian border. I am at anchor in the Bay of Cartagena, Colombia, and I will either hire a taxi to watch the Colombian army kick some butt, or make tracks to Panama, where you are. Hopefully, you can give me some insight on how it looks from your end. The buzz here is that the French majority stock holder of Exito, success in Spanish, will operate as usual until the Chavistas take over. They say that Exito Venezuela is only 1% of their total business. Thanks for the informative article.
Sir Shrek, I will try. However, as Pajamas articles fall off the page it is necessary to find the article in archives. If you wish to do that, copy a link to it and check for comments occasionally. Should something happen, I will post a comment there.
One of the best sources I have found for Venezuelan goings on is this blog by a guy living in the provinces there. He generally posts daily. If there are signs of troop movements towards the border with Colombia, he will write about it. Having seen something of the Venezuelan military back in 2000, it wasn’t very competent then. Now, with the higher ranks promoted due more to political loyalty than to military competence, I don’t foresee much trouble for Colombia. I have heard, but have no independent basis for it, that many lower ranking officers who probably have at least some idea what soldering is about have less loyalty to Chavez. Should Chavez order an attack on Colombia, I would not be greatly surprised at a military coup. Chavez was only a lieutenant colonel when he unsuccessfully attempted his first coup, and there may be enough such lower ranking officers to try again. The country seems ripe for that sort of thing.
I hope you are enjoying Cartagena. My wife and I found it to be one of our favorite cities (and I don’t much like cities) when we were there for about six months in 2001 having really excellent work done at a boat yard there. I suspect that, as with everything, there have been changes.
However, it does not apply to whale sperm, pickles, and the pain reliever codeine, which will be considered essential goods.
I really have to ask: How the heck do they get the whale sperm in the first place?!?
Naman,
I don’t really know. However, our houskeeper’s neighbor’s brother’s uncle thinks Save the Whales takes care of that. But, he could be wrong.
Further to my most recent comment, this may have some bearing on the collection of whale sperm. Venezuela is trying, with the help of Cuba, to foster sex education. That may explain it because …. oh, never mind.
31. naman:
However, it does not apply to whale sperm, pickles, and the pain reliever codeine, which will be considered essential goods.
I really have to ask: How the heck do they get the whale sperm in the first place?!?
Well,IIRC the word dork was originally a New England colloquialism for a whales “member”.Chavez certainly fits the description.
Alas, according to el Presidente Chávez the United States (or at least the CIA) has declared war on Venezuela. He is upset by the following from the CIA World Factbook:
Hugo CHAVEZ, president since 1999, seeks to implement his “21st Century Socialism,” which purports to alleviate social ills while at the same time attacking globalization and undermining regional stability.
According to the linked article,
The CIA’s online almanac is “a declaration of war,” Chavez said, because “they are sending a signal to the world for it to set its eyes on us.” At the same time, he proudly declared the socialism part in the text to be spot-on.
Gosh darn!
Hugo Chavez and Obama think alike, could they be lost brothers or kin. Same things happening in AMERICA.
Chileno
Not to be outdone, the French have seconded Chavez in this accusation.
It’s ironic to hear Haiti’s former colonial overlords, who exploited Haiti for over a century, now accusing someone else of “occupying” it.
“Mills said the United States has been trying to contact the approximately 45,000 U.S. citizens in Haiti to see what they need. It has ordered the departure of embassy families and nonessential personnel.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/14/honore-u-s-military-should-have-reached-haiti-sooner/
“L’ambassadeur d’Haïti aux États-Unis, Raymond Joseph, a appelé mardi à mettre fin aux largages d’aide humanitaire par hélicoptère pour venir en aide aux victimes du séisme dans son pays, qui ont donné lieu à des scènes de chaos. “Nous n’aimons pas ça (…) car quand ils larguent de l’aide, seuls les plus forts y ont accès. Il devrait y avoir des zones de transit où les hélicoptères pourraient se poser” et d’où l’aide serait distribuée”
http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-monde/2010-01-20/acheminement-de-l-aide-l-ambassadeur-d-haiti-aux-usa-veut-un-substitut-aux-largages-par/924/0/415119
France has accused the U.S. of occupying quake-devastated Haiti, saying Washington is hindering the relief effort with its troops surge. More foreign soldiers and police are being sent to the Island-nation, where looting and violence are on the rise, as people are still desperate for vital supplies - a week after the disaster. The French minister in charge of humanitarian relief, Alain Joyandet, has asked the UN to clarify America’s role in Haiti. He says after US troops took charge of the main airport, they’ve been turning away aircraft carrying aid, in favour of military planes. French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s office tried to play down reports of the rift with the U.S, saying cooperation between the two countries was going well. But the charity Doctors without Borders backed Joyandet’s call to the UN, adding that aid delays threaten lives. ”
see why the french complained
http://www.boingboing.net/2010/01/21/haiti-howto-set-up-a.html
“Publicly, US officials are taking the absurd position that they do not know the contents of humanitarian aid flights and cannot decide whether they deserve priority to land. Citing discussions with US General Ken Keen, commanding operations in Haiti, the Washington Post wrote, “if an air traffic controller doesn’t know what’s on an incoming plane, then he doesn’t know what priority to give it.” Apparently, priority goes to US military flights. Keen said: “If the young airman [controlling air traffic] has three planes coming in and he knows what’s on one of them, he’s going to land that one.”
also it’s what I have seen on TV, troops sitting in airport aeras while smoking, and waiting for their material and more comrads, while the humanitarian associations were doing what they can
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/jan2010/hait-j21.shtml
even Israel is complaining
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX-UmrFAWNw CNN video of Israeli hospital in Haiti
The problem with Venezuela, like all other failed economies including Haiti, is each nation’s failure to honor contracts.
Thus it’s not a pact with the Devil that causes misery, but a breaking of the commandment “Thou shalt not steal.”
When contracts are broken, something is stolen.
Capital will not flow to where it’s stolen.
Obama’s breaking of contracts with Chrysler and other outrages during this economic “crisis” is also the reason our economy is stagnant.
Would you invest your money in a place where the local thugocrat (whether Chavez or Obama) promises to steal it if you don’t toe his Marxist theory?
Next up for Obama: five year plans.
FINALLY: A PICTURE OF OBAMA’S THINK TANK!Sans contents(those were recently spewed in the states of Ohio and Massachusetts).
(Chavez) says The government [have done all they could] to alleviate the CRISIS.
Sound familiar, sounds a lot like OBAMA.
(Chavez) 2.2[billion loan from Russia].
Sound familiar, Obama [billions from China]
(Chavez) has the bad situation well in hand.
Sound familiar, Obama’s working to get a bad situation in hand.
(Chavez) commandeered cable.
Sound familiar, OBAMA wants control ot the innernet.
(Chavez) blames his problems on those before him.
Sound familiar, OBAMA blames everything on BUSH.
Domestic problems out of hand and Chavez will not succeed.
Sound familiar, OBAMA will not succeed.
9Chavez) says HOMELAND, SOCIALISM, or DEATH.
OBAMA saya “HOPE AND CHANGE” AMERICA HOW DO YOU LIKE SOCIALISM/
Marie Claude:
The US took over Haitian air traffic control at the request of Pres. Rene Preval, as the Haitians are presently unable to handle it themselves. The incoming soldiers will assist in providing security as well as distributing the mountains of aid.
It’s one thing to complain the Americans have not been adequately prioritizing incoming flights. It’s quite another to echo Chavez and accuse the nation that has donated the greatest amount of resources/manpower to rescue Haiti, of “occupying” it. The colonialist connotations are inescapable. This is a truly ironic accusation, coming from Haiti’s former colonial rulers, who despite their historical ties have not pledged nearly as much aid as the “occupying” Americans…
Foreign aid summaries:
http://www.consulfrance-atlanta.org/spip.php?article2191
http://noticias.aol.com/articulos/_a/a-look-at-foreign-quake-aid-for-haiti/n20100120071509990013
Chavez has finally cleared the air and now things are certain to improve:
Chavez on Sunday asked for the cooperation of the national legislature in drafting laws permitting the elimination of capitalistic operating guidelines at public firms.
Chavez on his weekly radio and television show revealed the societal model he envisions, according to which public firms will not depend on their established production capacity or on the quality of their products, their costs, or their sales, because their survival will be guaranteed by an annual budget provided by the state.
With their operations assured in this way, the firm will not sell its products in the open market but rather will deliver them to a state entity which will undertake to market them at prices whereby the value added is eliminated.
There will obviously be an immediate influx of immigrants, going to Venezuela to find true happiness and prosperity!
Chileno
how convenient your article doesn’t quote France contribution !
as I alreadu wrote last week
€ 400 millions from the EU
€ 20 millions from France
+ annulation of the dept of € 75 millions through the “Club of Paris”
€ 15 millions from the individuals the first week…
just be fair !
you can’t accuse us to be responsable of Haiti situation since it got its independance in 1804
and besides it is more proxy to the US than of Europe,
many times your country sent troops there and occupied it at least 20 years in the beginning of the last century…
and the many helps to Duvaliers, with the training of the tontons Macoutes…
so don’t tell we were implied in all their miseries
Now “Doctors without borders” was already on the ground before the earthquake, with some other associations that provided water and food
The Vice President of Venezuela, who was also the Defense Minister, resigned today for “personal reasons.” His wife, “environment Minister Yuviri Ortega, also resigned, the media reports said.”
This may portend something or, on the other hand, it may not.
Marie Claude
I WAS being fair. You apparently didn’t notice… I quoted TWO sources specifically because the second one did not list France. Please note the FIRST source, http://www.consulfrance-atlanta.org/spip.php?article2191 is from the French Consulate General in Atlanta, and it states: “France has announced a contribution of €14 million, including €10 million in response to the UN appeal and €2 million for emergency food aid.”
For the record, the Americans have pledged $130 million, and that doesn’t include private institutions…
“Just be fair”? Is it fair for you to mention EU contributions -lumping together pledges from Germany, UK, Spain, etc to those of France- to support your case?
Do you deny France shares much deeper ties to Haiti, given its history, culture and language?
The US did in fact occupy Haiti in the 1920s and 30s, which makes all the more poignant the accusation of “occupying” it today. Yet this is hardly comparable to being a colonizing power, as France was for over a century. But now your foreign minister curiously accuses the US of a colonialist act, simply because they are managing (ineffectively or not) Haiti’s air traffic and sending troops to assist in aid distribution. Is this a fair accusation?
If you must bring up the Duvaliers, let’s not forget where “Baby Doc” and his family finally settled (and comfortably still live) after he stepped down -under US pressure…
Are you implying that because “Doctors without Borders” was in Haiti, there was a French “presence” there before the earthquake? Knowing what an international organization that has grown to be (I myself contribute), is that fair? Would it then be fair for me to say there was an enormous American “presence,” given all the American Christian organizations that have been present in Haiti… for decades?
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
Chavez is no different then the infamous FIDEL CASTRO JUST A COMMUNISTS DICTATOR AND TYRANT
goood jooob Do you deny France shares much deeper ties to Haiti, given its history, culture and language?
The US did in fact occupy Haiti in the 1920s and 30s, which makes all the more poignant the accusation of “occupying” it today. Yet this is hardly comparable to being a colonizing power, as France was for over a century. But now your foreign minister curiously accuses the US of a colonialist act, simply because they are managing (ineffectively
thanks will continue until morale improves.