How to Tell Which Campaign Thinks They’re Winning — and Losing
In a matter of hours, the 2012 presidential race will be over. Amen. Many of us burned out on this race sometime during the summer and have stuck it out this long only because we feel duty bound to see who wins. Of course, we care about the winner but some of us are in a Scarlett O’Hara frame of mind: “I’ll think about that tomorrow.”
The “What It All Means” crowd are sharpening their pencils for Election Day on Tuesday to tell us exactly what we should be thinking when either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama appears on stage to claim victory. Hopefully. Hopefully Tuesday. Hopefully fairly early on Tuesday. Most of us have probably already lost enough sleep because of this election and could use a break.
Alas, despite the fantasies of Dick Morris, such an outcome is probably not in the cards. In fact, with nine states polling within the margin of error and literally hundreds of election law lawyers standing by to wrangle every last vote from every last precinct — even if there aren’t any — we may not see an end to the contest until after the national Thanksgiving turkey has been pardoned. Or not. The president may be in no mood to be merciful and might decide that an execution is in order at the White House. After all, if Obama loses, he can hardly cut off Axelrod’s head — no matter how much we might think he deserves it.
But that’s in the future. Meanwhile, there’s an election to be won and how these final hours will be utilized by each campaign will tell the tale of victory or defeat.
Most of us don’t need to be reminded to forget the polls. With so many of them within the margin of error, they can safely be dismissed — even those with which you might actually agree. Nate Silver and his 79% chance of an Obama victory can also be ignored. Mr. Silver, who used to analyze baseball metrics for a living, can be excused for his determined optimism. No doubt he is a Chicago Cubs fan — a team that has not won a World Series championship for more than 100 years, but whose fans continue to chant the mantra “wait until next year!” Unfortunately, Mr. Obama might not have that option, although he would make an excellent pitchman for other lost causes like the UN or the Arab League.
How, then, do we determine the state of the race as we go into the last weekend? The simple answer is listen to the campaigns themselves. Not the self-serving spin on issues, or the mindless attacks on their opponent. We should be listening to what they aren’t saying in so many words (but are screaming loud and clear) by reading their schedule of appearances.
Where are the candidates going to be between now and Election Day? What states are they visiting? What TV markets are they hitting? Where are their major surrogates going to be? And where are they placing those precious last-minute ad buys?
The U.S. is a continental country and the swing states are spread out from Nevada to New Hampshire,. from Florida to Iowa. The campaign planes can only fly so many miles in so many hours and it is crucial that planners in both camps maximize the impact their principles can have on a given state.
The Christian Science Monitor lists the states both candidates will be hitting in the next few days:
On Thursday, Mr. Obama will be in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado. Friday, he’s campaigning in Ohio. Saturday is Ohio, Wisconsin again, then Iowa and Virginia. Sunday is New Hampshire, Florida, a return to Ohio, and another stop in Colorado. Monday is (whew!) Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa.
Mr. Romney’s schedule isn’t quite as crammed, at least not yet. On Thursday, the Massachusetts ex-governor is supposed to spend all day in Virginia. Friday is Wisconsin and Ohio. Saturday, he’s hitting New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa. His Sunday destinations have yet to be announced, but on Monday, he’s planning to be in Manchester, N.H.
Mr. Romney has since added a stop in Pennsylvania on Sunday. With the polls tightening in the state, the GOP candidate is not only going to visit, but has bought nearly a million dollars in ads to air through Tuesday. As if to confirm that the state is in play, the president’s campaign has also purchased a sizable chunk of time in the Keystone State, spending $1.6 million in a state he won by 10 points in 2008.
I have studied the polls in depth in FL, VA, OH, WI and they are all over-sampling Democrats. 85 to 90% of RV are saying they’re LV, when in fact the number will be around 65% tops. The independents are for Romney by 10+ in every poll and the Republicans will turn out.
The elephant in the room is this:
What % of McCain voters will switch to Obama?
What % of Obama voters will switch to Romney?
The answer to those questions plus intensity will lead to a big Romney win. 300+
I’ve been saying since the 2010 midterms that Barack Obama was doomed to lose this election in a landslide. When the President was up by double digits in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania I wrote that we should ignore the polls.
I think Obama has already lost those particular swing states, and with them the election.
With every passing day, the tsunami grows. The tidal wave is coming and it will wash Barack Obama out of office and into retirement.
This election will not even be close.
Boy, I really hope both of you right. Because four more years of Hussein would be more than what the US and most of the rest of the free world can take. I hope its a clear cut victory (both majority vote and electoral college) for Romney-Ryan.
I’m what they call an “eeyore.”
I am worried that country has hit the tipping point where the “free obamaphone” voters are no dominant. I am sincerely hoping I’m wrong, but I remember 2008; nobody could believe polls then, either.
Here is hoping I get to celebrate being wrong!
I also hope you are right. But if it doesn’t happen, we need to re-direct our energy toward resisting the over-reach, fraud, waste and lawlessness of big government as it is today.
That this will not be easy becomes obvious if you simply add up these groups who ardently believe that they benefit from a more expansive and liberal government: 1) entitlement recipients, 2) public service workers, 3) private sector workers whose jobs depend largely on government contracts, 4) minorities, gays and other identity groups who have been taught that they are protected from social intolerance only through government action and 5) close friends and family of all of the above. Sorry folks but that is well over 50% of us.
This is why our founding fathers designed checks, balances and enumerated powers into the constituion. But it was only a matter of time before the political elite figured out a way around them.
If Obama wins he will most likelybe impeached for Benghazi, or F-Furios, or his exec order changing the welfare law work requirements. That law has specific language stating the house has to approve changes.
I think Romney in a landslide. Moran is wrong, Morris is right. It is still 2010, the Tea Party has gone no where!! Everyone will see soon enough.
Romney in a landslide?
I hope you’re putting your money where your mouth is. A bet of $330 on Intrade will make you a thousand bucks!
John Q, Intrade, where suckers go to get rid of their money…
Conservative, TEA Party types do not gamble so their line on the election is skewed just like the polls are.
Three recent events have doomed Obama: The increase in the unemployment number to 7.9%; The pictures of the disaster in New York and New Jersey with out of control gas lines and images of Staten Island; Libyagate.
I have been saying exactly the same thing. What has changed for the better in these states to make them reverse the way that they voted two years ago?
That would be nothing. If anything a normal person could only believe that things have gotten worse.
Four more days.
It’s all going to come down to turnout. Turnout, turnout, turnout. If Philly city stays home, Romney wins PA. If Dems can’t cheat past the R turnout, Romney wins OH. I want to believe Romney will take both states, along with FL, NC, VA, WI, IA, MI and NV. After a tough four years of economic disaster along with listening to idiots defend the Idiot In Chief no matter what he does, I am almost afraid to hope. And yet…a wistful little voice whispers softly in the back of my mind, “Romney…landslide…Romney…landslide.” We shall see.
The entire country has post traumatic stress. We need a break! Ora et labora!
What % of McCain voters will switch to Obama? Zero.
What % of Obama voters will switch to Romney? This one’s harder, but in ’08, Obama maxed out his support among the young, the elderly, Catholics, blacks, Hispanics, Jews, military, women, Caucasians, and every other identifiable demographic out there. His support among all those groups will be diminished this time, and it won’t be b/c they’re voting for a third party. Moreover, many who still support him this time simply won’t show up at the polls. None of this bodes well for Obama. The early voting we’re seeing now isn’t excitement to vote for Obama – that enthusiasm has been squandered by a feckless, anti-American, Marxist-redistributionist, community-organizing, narcissist.
I still have some hope for Dick Morris to go on FNC with a big “I told ya so” but I’d take a 270-268 EC Romney win. The only problem with it being that close is that the Dems will scream bloody murder (something they literally should be, but aren’t, doing over Benghazi) and the lawsuits will go on ad nauseum.
Morris isn’t throwing darts at a board. He has plausible reasons for his predictions:
- Gallup says that turnout will be lower than in 2008 (good for republicans) and that republican enthusiasm is much higher
- Early voting is showing significant gains for Romney vs McCain in 2008
- obama has a failed record and has run an exclusively negative campaign
- Undecideds have historically voted for the challenger
- enthusiasm in all liberal constituencies is lower than in 2008
- 20% of obama’s newspaper endorsements have switched
- obama hasn’t started campaigning in Minnesotta and Pennsylvania because he likes the food
- internals of even pro-obama polls show that Romney has advantages
Silver has reasons for his views as well:
- state polls have by and large been better predictors of state results
- he thinks he sees bias in Rasmussen and other pollsters he discounts
- his model was successful in 2008
- he claims that a 1% margin for a poll with a small MOE actually predicts the winner with probabilities of 60% and above.
- he has complete faith in the state pollsters that see things his way
Moran is a classic Republican-type who would look for the midground between Russia and the Ayotollahs if they were running, and support it. The only position he believes in strongly is that people who believe in things strongly are dead wrong.
Some say Silver was given ALL of Obamas internal poll data, and that is the reason he was so spot on. Not because of his numerical prowess.
Wahington Post says 13% of Obama’s 2008 voters will vote for Romney in 2012. Can you say “Romney Landslide”
As Glenn would say, “Don’t get cocky”. This is a close election. I think Team Romney needs to win the popular vote and win the electoral college by more than number of electors of the largest single state that could be flipped in a recount. A win solid Romney win where recounting Ohio wouldn’t affect the result makes this end next week. However, if the win is smaller, the lawyers will get involved.
That would be the closet thing to an airtight win for us..
I sure hope so, but I dont think it will happen.
They (Obama/media) will use Sandy as a wedge to pry open victory with lawyers…
Of the states hit hard (NY, NJ, Conn, PA) only PA is in play for Romney,
and the Storm damage was much less than the others.
SO, if we legitimately win the electoral map WITH PA, but NOT also “pad” it with Ohio and some others, the Lawyers will go Berserk for a recount/revote/do-over/just give it to me, claiming the “unprecidented” storm makes the PA result invalid.
And for extra arrogance, they will even say this:
“Un-huh, PA’s Electorals should go to us because of the storm, of course, yeah…but you know, adding up all the voters in NYC, Long Island and Connecticut who CLEARLY didnt make it to the polls either, and who CLEARLY would have voted Obama, as Romney never had a chance in them, we OBVIOUSLY would have won have the POPULAR vote total as well, SEE?”
The media looks thoughtful and gestures them to continue…
“…so there is really NO QUESTION who should be declared the winnner, because its so obvious how IT WOULD HAVE BEEN…Electoral AND popular majorities for Obama….Except for that terrible, unprecidented Storm…that, by the way, was OBVIOUSLY caused by the kind of Global Warming that Fat-Cat Big Businesses like Bain and Romney allow to occur…. Thats why its SO Important to continue Obamas agenda, and have the REAL will of the American People Prevail this time…”
Yes, in the face of an Electoral AND Popular vote defeat, the shameless Commies will say, with a straight face, that the EXACT OPPOSITE exact opposite is true….
And the Compliant Media will wink, nodd their heads and say:
“well, thats a compelling argument…will the Supreme Court get it right THIS TIME or is the fix in for Romney?”
Just you wait and see.
I think the new key to this election has become Pennsylvania. If Romney can win that, he really doesn’t need Ohio. And with the way things are going in Pennsylvania, Romney stands a good chance of winning it. The Republicans did very well in Pennsylvania in 2010, so why can’t they do at least as well in 2012 as they did in 2010? The economy has NOT gotten any better since 2010 (at least not in Pennsylvania) and Obamacare is still as unpopular as ever. So why is it so far-fetched that Romney can’t win in Pennsylvania? I think Romney can do it and, if he does, he’ll certainly win the election as well.
A key meme in PA, especially in southwestern and northeastern PA, has been Dear Leader’s war on coal. It has not gone unnoticed, and it has left Senator Bob Casey in a dogfight against challenger Tom Smith. Long-time Democrat pol Mark Critz is also fighting hard to retain John Murtha’s old seat (since 2010, it’s in a harder district to defend– thank you, Dear Leader, for the 2010 landslide and handing the PA legislature to the Republicans).
Even though no one is explicitly saying so, I also think that another 4 years of Dear Leader would see a DoE/EPA/Interior clampdown on, if not outright shutdown of, fracking, the process that is making the U.S., and PA particularly, the new global big-man-on-campus when it comes to gas and oil.
The fact that PA is even close tells you all you need to know of how the numbers are trending.
Speaking of fracking, that’s what has fueled most of the job growth in Ohio. The conventional wisdom is that Obama has northern Ohio in a lock because of the auto industry, but the domestic auto industry is in free fall, and fracking has begun to take its place as a major job producer. I’m pretty sure Romney has southern Ohio in his camp anyway.
Yes, LibertyShip46.
Plus, if Romney takes Pennsylvania, it will be a great sign of OWNAGE for Romney and for regular Americans who treasure freedom.
Ship, XContra,
I live in PA, Romney has a decent shot but we need Ohio and a few more so no one single state electors can be “contested” for a steal.
See my above tirade on a win WITH PA but NOT padding it with some others.
Dangerous.
Scuttlebut round Philly is major lawsuits for “supressed turnout” due to the Storm if Romney takes PA.
I’d almost “trade” PA for a few other close ones, just to take that angle away from them
This is a an election of PURE HATE..them for us, and us for them…it’s war, and will get DIRTY and NASTY in the courts if they have anything they can use.
Riots in the streets are already a forgone certainty, whether Obama wins or loses. They burn the town when they’re happy, they burn the town when their mad.
Thats “His people” in Philly
On the bright side, the Eagles are playing on Monday night this week, so maybe they’ll be too tired to riot after staying up late the night before.
Yeah, one can hope…
Hung over after drowning their sorrow when the Eagles CHOKE another easy game.
F*ckin’ Losers…
Over rated, over priced, cant get the job done.
Democrats. Philly. The Eagles.
Three peas in a pod
Recall also that, when Obama was ridiculing the “bitter clingers” during the 2008 campaign, he was referencing in that speech the good folks of rural PA. Loyal Pennsylvanians—Isn’t it about time we sent Dear Leader a strong reply?
Have you ever bet your pay check on a poker bluff? You hold a pair of three, nine high, and things get out of control. One guy doggedly stays in, continually sees and raises, until there is a ton of money in the pot. You had one last chance to see and raise him, drive him out. What was the look on your face?
There are a lot of fat, cushy people who know, deep down, that they will be unemployed in January 2013, if their guy does not get in. They have that look. They are predicting with infallibility that the reds, or blues, will crush.
The truth will come out. We are a deeply divided nation. Our economy is in the toilet. We are broke. We have been at war for over ten years, four under the anti-war President. The results of our epic energy bet can be seen in New York city: no juice for a long time, no heat, no fuel, and no jobs.
Obama is a failed President; I will vote against him. If it was within my power, I would give Washington D. C. back to Maryland (they do not want it) and start over somewhere in the west, where real people live. God help this nation.
so who is looking glum? I don’t bother with TV anymore.
The most precious capital in a campaign is the candidate’s time, it is often said. Look at where each side is spending that capital. Obama is obviously concerned about Wisconsin and Ohio and my bet is he will show concern for PA soon too.
It will be interesting to see what Romney does with Sunday. Personally I think that his plane should set a record for fuel burned on that day. He has put a big dent so far in Obama’s early vote in Nevada, he may be able to win there. It looks like the Dems are using up alot of “sure thing” votes in the early voting, that means that they may have fewer votes to turn out on the 6th, given the polled enthusiasm gap. I also think that Minnesoata is in play, it has been trending right for a while now.
If Romney wins Ohio and can peel off Wisconsin or PA, we’re talking landslide.
I have been praying for the American people to have wisdom when they head to the voting booth. Things don’t need to be as bad as they have been for four years now. We became a unique country because we embraced freedom and free markets. We need to return to that strategy.
“If Romney wins Ohio and can peel off Wisconsin or PA, we’re talking landslide.”
What makes me optimistic that can and may happen is 2010, plus what happened with Gov. Scott Walker’s recall election in Wisconsin this past summer. It was beautiful watching MSNBC’s Ed Shultz & John Nichols crying after their precious unions were beat back by a very sane & reasonable Wisconsin electorate. I hope & pray they are still sane & reasonable, and there’s no reason to believe they aren’t.
Democrats who vote early have several days/weeks to collude with their party people to figure out a way to VOTE AGAIN ON ELECTION DAY.
That’s WHY they vote early.
We need to BAN early voting, except for legitimate travel absentees and the truly elderly/handicapped/homebound
One thing pundits (on the left AND right) seem to like to tell us is that no Republican has won the Presidency without Ohio. That’s all fine & dandy, but the converse of that is that every Republican who has won the Presidency has won it WITH Ohio. Most importantly, more Republicans than Dems have won the Presidency over the last 48 years (7-5) which means Republicans have carried Ohio more times than Dems over that time span. If Romney wins Ohio and the Presidency, the score will be 8-5.
1. Neither party has won Presidency without Ohio since 1960.
2. Historically, Ohio votes for GOP slightly above the national average.
If second point holds true, Romney should carry Ohio given that even the far left says Romney will probably carry popular vote.
“Neither party has won Presidency without Ohio since 1960.”
Each party has won Presidency with Ohio since 1960.
“Historically, Ohio votes for GOP slightly above the national average.”
Historically, Ohio votes for Dems slightly below the national average.
“If second point holds true, Romney should carry Ohio given that even the far left says Romney will probably carry popular vote.”
If second point holds true, Obama should lose Ohio given that even the far right says Obama will probably lose the popular vote.
The only poll I’ll be watching will be the one that will come out on Nov. 7th. The one conducted by the citizenry itself. If Mitt wins, we can give a collective sigh of relief. If Barry wins……well I’ll leave that for you to figure out.
Dick Morris and I will be expecting your apology on Wednesday.
I agree with #7 Jose, the only poll that matters is the one after this is over and telling us who won. What I don’t agree with is losing one state or another doesn’t matter. Romney needs to take as many of Obambi’s 57 states as he can. Make this truly a landslide where even the lawyers won’t have a chance of turning it around. We need everyone to get out and vote!
Tuesday is the day to finish the Shellacking that we began giving this neo-Marxist clown in 2010.
Don’t leave the job half-finished…we ain’t union workers here!
Why isn’t anybody talking about response bias in the poll results? What proportion of poll respondents will both respond to a phone call from stranger asking personal questions, and tell the truth?
Pretty close to zero, it seems, especially when BAD THINGS could happen to folks who give the “wrong” answers.
So, the polls aren’t worth the time it takes to read them.
Oh, I am voting all right!
GARBAGE OUT!
GOD IN! DECENCY IN! COMMON SENSE IN! MORALITY IN!
Romney/Ryan PLEASE people! TO SAVE OUR REPUBLIC!
Let’s see who have O’Dismal ticked off:
1. Catholic Church
2. Anyone mining coal, producing electricity with coal, oil, gas, or nuclear
3. Anyone producing electricity from hydro
4. Doctors
5. Farmers, Fishermen, and Loggers
6. White People
7. Mexicans with Fast & Furious, plus border guards
8. Military leaving our people to die in Benghazi
9. CIA as O’Dismal threw them under the bus to save his hide
10. Middle class people with high gas, food, clothing
11. Anyone who wants a job as joblessness is persistence
12. Israel
13. Our allies
Who is left except the hard core left and welfare crowd?
Romney wins big Nov. 6, 2012. Americans, whether R, D, or I instictively know that Obama has run a divisive, negative campaign devoid of future plans to help the economy. Romney has taken everything Obama and his surrogates have thrown and he has contrasted all of that with a positive message of optimism and growth. Can anyone here recall a point during this campaign when Obama has shown optimism and a plan for growing the economy? (crickets chirping). And let’s not forget “war on terror” became “overseas contingency operation.” But, it’s OK for them to accuse Republicans of supposed “war on women.” The President’s message is hollow, he knows it, and in four days, America begins its long-delayed recovery. Go Romney/ Ryan!
Well we donated to the Romney campaign again last night. This time it was my wife’s decision, normally I’m the one donating. We live in a State where we don’t dare put out a Romney for President sign and it seems that most of the people we know are in the Obama camp. You can’t mention that you’re a Romney supporter in the business world or in social circles. We are censored by our neighbors, associates, and acquaintances. I’ve been called a racist just because I mentioned that I was a Republican (I don’t dare mention that I was a Tea Party supporter). Welcome to California, the land of the free: free illegal aliens (2/3s of the job growth in this nation went to aliens), free welfare recipients (California has 70% of all the people on welfare in the whole US), free gang bangers. Here is the real kick, they are threatening to riot if Romney gets elected. I guess we just can’t give these deserving people enough.
Andy Gump, buy a gun to keep the rabble off your property. Otherwise, let them riot and burn the rest of the place down. We’re broke, they can live among the rubble for a very long time.
I got a gun and its clean. My bullets are oiled and ready. Thanks Patty.
DO NOT LUBRICATE YOUR AMMUNITION!
Penetrating oils can seep between the cartridge case/bullet seal and contaminate propellants and primers.
Oil on the outside of cartridge cases (if excessive) can create dangerously high hydraulic pressures inside your cylinder/chambers as the case expands upon firing and the “fluid” has nowhere to go.
The saying “keep your powder dry” applied to ammo too.
Clean, Dry. Not “oiled”
“This Public Service Announcement has been brought to you by your Inalienable Rights,
“And…”
“A Generous Grant from The Second Amendment,
Sic Semper Tyrannis, since 1775″
I’ll wipe them clean. That’s lots of wiping. Thanks for the tip. By the way, here in California, they tell you to keep your powder dry cause it could spoil your make up. I’ve been around these people too long!
If they have a SLIGHT bit of “slipperiness” on them, like from a LIGHTLY oiled rag
or one of those impregnated “gun cloths”, thats OK.
But if they leave a “wet mark” on a paper towel thats TOO much
Like anything else, common sense is the key…
For instance, water is a perfectly legitimate “gun cleaning” media in some instances,(flushing out a lot of sand from the crevasses? Better than grinding at it with a Q-tip) But ONLY IF you are prudent, and properly lubricate things when you’re finished…
Problem is, if you EVER say “yes, troops, it is O.K. to clean your rifle with water”, soldiers (but NEVER Marines, right!)will eventually devolve the practice into submerging their fully assembled M-16′s into a muddy steam, and calling it “done”… because “Gunny said water is OK, right?”
Thats where the where the Gun Cleaning Commandment “never EVER clean a rifle with WATER! Water is FORBIDDEN” you may have heard somewhere comes from.
– trying to spend his war chest where the Big Mo has emerged. Timing is everything and he is peaking just right. Who’d had thunk the Giants would again win the World Series. Gotta get hot.
I wonder Mr. Moran if you will eat crow when / if “The fantasies of Dick Morris” and the ignorings of Nate Silver come true?
Sam Wang nailed the 2008 election. Ok, he understated Obama by one electoral vote. He has Romney at a 1-2 percent chance of winning. Good thing he is one of those Princeton professor types. They are not real bright. All that book knowledge and statistcal analysis based on math regressions is way to fact based. That liberal bias must have caused him to miss that one vote in 2008.
I am canadian and follow the US election from canada. Most polls indicate Obama will win the electoral vote. You can spin the words or the numbers to what ever you like ; the reality it is only the polls now until noveber 6 or 7.
Romney up 1 in Minnesota!
Who would of thunk it.
Oh poor posters. You want to believe so badly that Obama will lose that you’re talking yourselves blue in the face.
You have your own news station, telling you what you want to hear, you have paid for scientists denying science, but….you need your own pollsters too, to complete the circle of delusion you wrap yourselves in.
Even your boy Rasmussen, in order to save face, has the race only one point in favor of Romney. What happened to that 6 point lead?
You see Rasmussen does that. Skews it towards to Republicans but then when the election is close, suddenly his polling becomes much more accurate. He would lose business otherwise. So…don’t feel too bad, Capitalism still works!
More interestingly is who will tou guys blame…I mean besides the New York Times. Will you say Romney blew it? Need a ‘ true’ conservative.
Obama was very vulnerable, but till you start to appeal to more people..you will lose more and more.
I dont think Obama deserves re- election, but if you think a return to the Bush policies of increased defense spending and lower taxes, and less regulation, is the answer…you leave us with no choice. Too bad.