How About Adding a North Korea Crisis to the Mix?
Animal hoof and mouth disease is different from human foot and mouth disease and the diseases are not transmissible from animals to humans or vice versa. However, the responsible viruses may mutate and, in any event, humans can carry highly contagious animal hoof and mouth disease to other animals. For that reason and others, it is necessary to dispose of the animal carcasses in ways likely to minimize spread of the contagion; distributing the meat and other body parts for sale, consumption, and other purposes throughout the country will only accelerate the spread of the disease.
Previously, it had been reported that the boundaries of the area within the capital city of Pyongyang had been redrawn to reduce the area dramatically; that had been attributed to food shortages and to the strain of providing the extra benefits normally given to Pyongyang residents. “About 500,000 people were excluded as Pyongyang citizens who have been relatively well-fed despite chronic food shortages.” The sudden diminution of the miserable “well-being” of the already very poor can have great destabilizing consequences.
“Global warming” appears to be harassing North Korea’s west coast and in consequence deliveries (presumably from China) have been infrequent for about forty-five days; the problem is expected to continue for another ten days or so:
The North’s state media reported last month that temperatures in December and January had been markedly colder than usual, causing hardship for “the people’s lives.”
South Korean humanitarian aid groups that maintain contact with the North said the harsh conditions had severely compounded existing malnutrition and shelter problems.
Pyongyang has reportedly stepped up its calls for aid from the international community in recent weeks amid what the aid groups consider a worsening humanitarian situation.
Despite or perhaps because of these conditions, North Korea has moved about half of its three hundred Kong Bang hovercraft south to a port close to disputed islands near South Korea. Each carries a platoon of soldiers, about thirty, and “can travel about 250 kilometers, at a speed of about 80 kilometers an hour”:
Lack of fuel and spare parts limits training for these hovercraft, so any combat use would essentially be with poorly trained and inexperienced crews. Originally intended for delivering commandos quickly, the hovercraft are fast, but noisy and very vulnerable to any kind of gunfire or explosives.
A base for “about 70 hovercraft is reaching completion at Koampo, South Hwanghae Province, 50 to 60 km from Baeknyeong Island in the West Sea.”
Meanwhile, and probably as a way to ransom “humanitarian aid,” the DPRK is completing a tunnel needed for another nuclear test. It is in North Hamgyong Province, the site of two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, and has progressed “to a depth of 800 m. Another 200 m is all that is needed to conduct a third nuclear test. The DPRK has also completed a new missile launch pad in Tongchang-ri in North Pyongyan Province”:
Pyongyang is probably surprised by the steadfast stance of the South Korean and U.S. governments since the launch of the Lee Myung-bak administration, despite its provocations. As a result, it may well be cooking up a scheme that it hopes will shock Seoul and Washington. In other words, the next provocation could be the worst one so far. Experts speculate North Korea could attempt multiple attacks simultaneously including a nuclear test, a terror attack on a South Korean city and property, and assassination of a South Korean official.
Why is anyone surprised at revolution spreading throughout the globe..?
The world has been an artificial construct for the last 100 years, the Middle east carved up by Britain and USA; tyrannical Puppets supported in return for flow of their petroleum…Saudi Arabia allowed to fund global terrorism in return for their support of US Petro – Dollar system, wink and nods to Serbian maniacs in return for their cooperation..Drug Lords allowed to prosper in Afghanistan in return for cash and political favors..
The world is fed up with this corrupt system, people forced to live under it are fed up and fighting to overturn it, and good for them. It will crash the US dollar, reorganize petro-political alliances…but it is time for the world to awaken from its slumber.
Dan,
Well sifted analysis. As long as we have a treaty commitment with South Korea and the north remains in its status quo political and economic posture, the potential volatility is ever present. The south has adopted a much firmer form of communication recently, long, overdue in my opinion.
DPRK posesses a potent artilary capability that could wreak havoc on the south in a confrontation. Still, one has to wonder what the north could sustain after initial assault. The pounding that South Korea would inflict with US aid would be sustained and very precise. The north could certainly kill many in its preliminary attack, but would be fatally damaged by the counter punch. It would be a suicide mission in the long run.
Kim and his generals need to know one thing. Any use of biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons will mean immediate decapitation. We will reserve the right to use any weapon in our arsenal to accomplish that objective. Their Chinese sponsors need to understand this as well.
I trust Gates and company have explained the politics of force in that regard to Obama.
Yea, right.
Any country the U.S. has ever been at war with, (since the Civil War) has been given billions in aide to rebuild.
Just what we need; Sending money to N. Korea for reconstruction and reparations.
We are in for a war, though. And it’s going to be a helluva lot bigger than N. Korea.
I agree that an attack by the DPRK on South Korea should and probably would be suicidal. However, metropolitan Seoul plus its immediately surrounding area is the second largest city in the world, with 20,550,000 people. New York City and its immediately surrounding area is the fourth largest with 19,750,000. Seoul is well within the range of Dear Leader Kim’s air and artillery resources; the devastation would be great.
Getting information on what the “hermit kingdom” – under an unknown degree of control by an aging Dear Leader in poor health, while preparing for a successor to assume some unknown part of the unknown degree of control now shared by his father with the military and their minions over the “little people” said to be facing starvation – would be very difficult even for the best and the brightest to do. The rulers of China probably have better information than does the United States but what they can or would do to prevent an horrific attack on Seoul and what China might do should it happen are also hard to figure out. In the latter event China might well be too occupied with preventing massive immigration from whatever was left of North Korea to do much more than that.
We seem not to have many of the best and the brightest and their guidance seems unlikely even to be considered seriously in any event.
Dan, China wants the status quo to continue. Thus, it will do everything it can to foment instability short of actual war. Don’t kid yourself, China could care less about a possible refugee influx from N. Korea because it will simply shut its borders and shoot on sight. China could care less about what the world thinks and the global (i.e., leftist) press will continue to carry its water. China’s goal is to make sure the U.S. is otherwise occupied so it can attend to its nefarious business. Everywhere there is unrest in the world today benefits China and, mark my word, China is helping to stir the pot.
This is the time totalitarian regimes become really dangerous. Their economy, such as it is, is falling apart and they may just start a war just to divert the people’s attention from their miserable living conditions. This is especially true if they’re starving to death. The next few months could be critical in Korea. I would keep at least two carrier battle groups near by, just in case.
True, that! Nothing brings a country together faster, and gets them to sacrifice more, than a war with another global enemy.
On a lighter note you just know we are in for another visionary speech,the bootlickers will be invited to another WH party or a golf game.Nero fiddled while Rome burned and as they say history repeats itself.The flip side could actually be worse in the sense the community organizer might actually make a decision to do something.
OK, things are rotten in DPRK. They’ve been varying levels of rotten for decades. I don’t seriously think that the people are going to take to the streets over it. A far more likely scenario would be a military coup d’etat which would undoubtedly just swap one dictator for another. But as long as Mr. Kim keeps his massive army fed, and as long as he keeps his military commanders under close scrutiny, it’s hard to imagine who’s going pull off such a thing.
The only thing this prick does in a hurry is to rush his iron shots on the fairy way.
I worry about my son who is a Sergeant in an unnamed military force, who is going to voluntarily deploy in South Korea for the next 6 months. Is this a suicide mission? Opinions, please. He has his reason for voluntarily deploying and had already set this up. Please, I am awaiting responses from anyone who thinks they know what might happen in this crazy part of the world. My son has tried to reassure me he’ll be fine, but will be off base some. That’s all I can say. Thanks to anyone out there.
They have been on more heightened alert the last several months, restricting leave, and shutting off beer and liquor sales during these times.
Cut off my beer, and I’m ready to fight.
Korea is a lot safer than most metropolitan cities in the US. The South Koreans don’t seem to be too worried about the North. I sometimes think they are just waiting for the right excuse to go up there and clean them out. Politically, they can’t do that until Dear Leader does something incredibly stupid, which may happen in the near future. Things are getting desperate up there.
Soldiers get sent where the action is. That’s why we joined and that’s why we have them. It doesn’t make it any easier for the Mom’s or the soldiers families but that’s the deal we make when we sign up. We train our people well and give them the best equipment money can buy. Anything can happen but the advantage in a fight is with the American’s right now. We have battle tested leadership and the finest fighting force in the world. I think it’s the mom’s of your son’s opponents that should do the worrying. Thank your son for his service for me… You too mom..
Like other commenters have said – North Korea would be very destructive during the opening days of a war. Once the South Koreans and Americans counterattacked, it would be hot knife through butter.
Current South Korean and American equipment is even better now than 20 years ago. The North Korean stuff may not be as good as Saddam’s army. The only real challenge would be the terrain.
I can’t assure you that your son will be safe any more than I can guarantee that I’ll make home from work safely tonight. There will, however, be relatively few American casualties in a Korean war.
If China were to enter a Korean War again, that would be a very different story.
This comment is directed toward the pajamasmedia.com technical crew. How about putting in an author’s byline somewhere on the piece itself, other than just on the home page? I’m reading it, but have no idea who wrote it (Dan Miller) without looking back at the home page. Very inconvenient if the author puts in comments but you don’t know they’re the author’s, because their name is not on a byline anywhere near where the text of the article is.
Check at the top of the piece. Dan Miller’s name is right there.
Soldier Mom,
Unfortunately, what will happen will happen and there is nothing worrying about your son will do except make you and probably him miserable. Know that deployment to the Korean penisula has had risks since the cease-fire was negotiated. It’s a tinderbox, but a long-standing one with great implications if lit off, and that is in your and our favor.
Chances are, the rattling will continue, but no breakout. I pray for your piece of mind and your son, and all the other military serving in Korea. I remember, in the 80′s, when I was in the Army, things got a bit hot a couple of times and I heard from buddies of mine that were stationed there of the things they endured.
It’s a ridiculous situation that we are still sitting there, under a truce, of a 60 year old war; always ready, but vulnerable. We would win any conflict, no question. Obviously those that are right there are at the greatest risk though. Hang in there. At least with the internet and modern phones your son will be in closer contact with you ( or can be ) than ever before.
Two more things the US administration should do but won’t:
1. Blockade Somalia’s pirate ports indefinitely, even if we have to act unilateraly.
2. Enforce a no-fly zone over Libya–again, even if unilaterally.
But this crowd of contemptible weaklings will ‘assess’ and ‘coordinate’ and issue stern statements from here to eternity. Truly disgusting!
This pretty much says it all.
here is another take …google chrome does a decent translation.
http://www.olavodecarvalho.org/semana/110221dc.html
I am truly afraid of the use Mr Soros will make of the worlds crisies to benefit himself and the socialist crowd.
“Never let a crisis go to waste”. Was that Rahm’s quote, and did it come from Soros.?
I think it will end in ‘Marshall Law’ in the US.
There is an update here and here’s another: the
beatingsexecutions will continue until morale improves.Since December, approximately three million leaflets as well as instant rice, radios, toothpaste, toothbrushes, pens and erasers have been ballooned into the DPRK and they are drawing attention there. Chosun Ilbo reported the executions of two people in the DPRK.
It is interesting that a “high-ranking regional military officer” was one of the two executed, suggesting either that he miscalculated grossly or that strenuous efforts are perhaps being made to keep the military loyal to the Kim regime. Pocketing a few dollar bills probably would not, in whatever passes for normal circumstances in the DPRK, be considered a sufficiently serious offense to execute one of the military’s high-ranking own and to send his family packing off to a concentration camp. There have been at least a few other military executions, including “the platoon leader of the border garrison on charges of narcotics smuggling and human trafficking. . . . [and] a noncom officer of the border garrison was executed in January for having aided and abetted the defection of a family.” Their offenses would appear to have been more detrimental to the powers that be than the pocketing of a few dollar bills.
The noise from the DPRK continues. On March 1, it
Meanwhile, the Obama Administration is giving further consideration to resuming the provision of food aid.
According to the Voice of Russia in New York City,
Right. The DPRK starves its peasants to supply food and other resources to its elite “leaders” (who get some pretty neat luxuries) and very large military, prepares for another nuclear test, threatens nuclear conflagration, makes hit and run attacks on places held by the South, and begs for food in exchange for “peace” so long as “humanitarian assistance” is provided. And the United States is “considering” resumption of enabling the DPRK.
Same ol’ Shiite from the DPRK, interesting response from South Korea.
Are the ROK forces up to that sort of independent initiative?