How About Adding a North Korea Crisis to the Mix?
With much of the rest of the world — Egypt, Iran, Libya, and others — in escalating turmoil and with other potential hot spots getting hotter, events on the Korean peninsula may well be getting less coordinated attention from the Obama administration even than they normally do, and even than they got when the still simmering Korean mess erupted late last year.
More recently, the Obama administration found itself wallowing in bad intelligence and conflicting administration statements as to Egypt. That deficiency continues even as to Libya, the current hot spot de jour; the worldwide economic consequences of the situation there may be very great. As noted here:
No direct condemnation of the Qaddafi regime. No expression of support for the demonstrators. No hint of action on our part — no immediate economic embargo, no threats against any individuals involved in the atrocities, no call for a U.N. Security Council meeting, no sign of possible NATO enforcement of a no-fly zone, no demand that the border be opened for humanitarian aid. Instead, the State Department is trying to “convey a message” to the Libyan government.
This is your State Department at work. Surely there are some in the White House — I think there are some — who are cringing at such an absence of moral clarity on the part of the U.S. government and at such a failure of American leadership. Let’s hope they persuade the president to step forward very soon to overrule the State Department, and to put the United States, in both speech and deed, strongly and unequivocally on the side of decency and freedom.
The dithering must stop; whether it will is unknown and unknowable.
The situation in Pakistan is now heating up with probable consequences greater than potential embarrassment over recent unofficial confirmations that Raymond Allen Davis — for whom Pakistan had refused to honor diplomatic immunity demanded by the United States — “had been working as a CIA security contractor for the U.S. consulate in Lahore.” Further protests in Pakistan have resulted and the already shaky United States-Pakistan alliance seems to be fraying perhaps beyond repair.
Venezuela may become another hot spot before very long. When might the situation in Israel explode into an open and declared war? That situation is continuously exacerbated perhaps beyond redemption by the mixed signals the Obama administration continues to give; that is the only consistency it has shown. Is the “administration simply too incompetent to understand the significance of its actions”?
Now is the time actually to pay attention and to anticipate further unrest in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea). The rulers of the DPRK are malign; they are not stupid and seem more adept at seeing out than we are at seeing in. Their slaves don’t know much about the world beyond the borders, but the rulers do. As the situation in the DPRK continues to descend into anarchy, its temporary avoidance will likely require dramatically increased military excitement. While the Obama administration’s fleeting attention to Asia is further diminished by developments elsewhere, it may become too late. Even the glorious mess in Wisconsin might have to get along without further help from the Obama administration.
While continuing to enhance its already firm relationship with Iran, the DPRK continues to experience increasing difficulties, most self-inflicted. Widespread starvation was and remains bad but now there is also rampant hoof and mouth disease, which will lead to even more starvation. It began in Pyongyang, and “a guard post between Pyongyang and Pyongsong is preventing vehicles from entering the capital. … Pyongyang was the first location where the disease broke out”:
As pig farms in Pyongyang run by the party and the Army’s Guard Command were among those affected, the regime was reluctant to admit the outbreak, RFA said. It tried to contain the disease only with pesticides and lime, leading to rapid spread to neighboring provinces such as Hwanghae and Gangwon.
“Koksan in Hwanghae Province is home to many military pig farms,” a North Korean source said. “If the area has been affected the military must have suffered a great deal of damage.” The North in the report said vaccination efforts with a homegrown vaccine made little difference.
However, there are claims that the outbreak is giving North Koreans an opportunity to eat meat. RFA said as soon as a pig was spotted drooling or staggering in Gangwon Province, residents immediately culled it for sale in the market. That caused a drop in pork prices in the province, leading to an influx of buyers from as far afield as South Pyongan Province, it added.
Free North Korea Radio said that on leader Kim Jong-il’s birthday last Thursday, meat from infected cattle and pigs was distributed to residents in Daehongdan, Ryanggang Province. A North Korean defector who was a veterinarian said when livestock contract FMD in North Korea, they are not buried but eaten.
Why is anyone surprised at revolution spreading throughout the globe..?
The world has been an artificial construct for the last 100 years, the Middle east carved up by Britain and USA; tyrannical Puppets supported in return for flow of their petroleum…Saudi Arabia allowed to fund global terrorism in return for their support of US Petro – Dollar system, wink and nods to Serbian maniacs in return for their cooperation..Drug Lords allowed to prosper in Afghanistan in return for cash and political favors..
The world is fed up with this corrupt system, people forced to live under it are fed up and fighting to overturn it, and good for them. It will crash the US dollar, reorganize petro-political alliances…but it is time for the world to awaken from its slumber.
Dan,
Well sifted analysis. As long as we have a treaty commitment with South Korea and the north remains in its status quo political and economic posture, the potential volatility is ever present. The south has adopted a much firmer form of communication recently, long, overdue in my opinion.
DPRK posesses a potent artilary capability that could wreak havoc on the south in a confrontation. Still, one has to wonder what the north could sustain after initial assault. The pounding that South Korea would inflict with US aid would be sustained and very precise. The north could certainly kill many in its preliminary attack, but would be fatally damaged by the counter punch. It would be a suicide mission in the long run.
Kim and his generals need to know one thing. Any use of biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons will mean immediate decapitation. We will reserve the right to use any weapon in our arsenal to accomplish that objective. Their Chinese sponsors need to understand this as well.
I trust Gates and company have explained the politics of force in that regard to Obama.
Yea, right.
Any country the U.S. has ever been at war with, (since the Civil War) has been given billions in aide to rebuild.
Just what we need; Sending money to N. Korea for reconstruction and reparations.
We are in for a war, though. And it’s going to be a helluva lot bigger than N. Korea.
I agree that an attack by the DPRK on South Korea should and probably would be suicidal. However, metropolitan Seoul plus its immediately surrounding area is the second largest city in the world, with 20,550,000 people. New York City and its immediately surrounding area is the fourth largest with 19,750,000. Seoul is well within the range of Dear Leader Kim’s air and artillery resources; the devastation would be great.
Getting information on what the “hermit kingdom” – under an unknown degree of control by an aging Dear Leader in poor health, while preparing for a successor to assume some unknown part of the unknown degree of control now shared by his father with the military and their minions over the “little people” said to be facing starvation – would be very difficult even for the best and the brightest to do. The rulers of China probably have better information than does the United States but what they can or would do to prevent an horrific attack on Seoul and what China might do should it happen are also hard to figure out. In the latter event China might well be too occupied with preventing massive immigration from whatever was left of North Korea to do much more than that.
We seem not to have many of the best and the brightest and their guidance seems unlikely even to be considered seriously in any event.
Dan, China wants the status quo to continue. Thus, it will do everything it can to foment instability short of actual war. Don’t kid yourself, China could care less about a possible refugee influx from N. Korea because it will simply shut its borders and shoot on sight. China could care less about what the world thinks and the global (i.e., leftist) press will continue to carry its water. China’s goal is to make sure the U.S. is otherwise occupied so it can attend to its nefarious business. Everywhere there is unrest in the world today benefits China and, mark my word, China is helping to stir the pot.
This is the time totalitarian regimes become really dangerous. Their economy, such as it is, is falling apart and they may just start a war just to divert the people’s attention from their miserable living conditions. This is especially true if they’re starving to death. The next few months could be critical in Korea. I would keep at least two carrier battle groups near by, just in case.
True, that! Nothing brings a country together faster, and gets them to sacrifice more, than a war with another global enemy.
On a lighter note you just know we are in for another visionary speech,the bootlickers will be invited to another WH party or a golf game.Nero fiddled while Rome burned and as they say history repeats itself.The flip side could actually be worse in the sense the community organizer might actually make a decision to do something.
OK, things are rotten in DPRK. They’ve been varying levels of rotten for decades. I don’t seriously think that the people are going to take to the streets over it. A far more likely scenario would be a military coup d’etat which would undoubtedly just swap one dictator for another. But as long as Mr. Kim keeps his massive army fed, and as long as he keeps his military commanders under close scrutiny, it’s hard to imagine who’s going pull off such a thing.
The only thing this prick does in a hurry is to rush his iron shots on the fairy way.
I worry about my son who is a Sergeant in an unnamed military force, who is going to voluntarily deploy in South Korea for the next 6 months. Is this a suicide mission? Opinions, please. He has his reason for voluntarily deploying and had already set this up. Please, I am awaiting responses from anyone who thinks they know what might happen in this crazy part of the world. My son has tried to reassure me he’ll be fine, but will be off base some. That’s all I can say. Thanks to anyone out there.
They have been on more heightened alert the last several months, restricting leave, and shutting off beer and liquor sales during these times.
Cut off my beer, and I’m ready to fight.
Korea is a lot safer than most metropolitan cities in the US. The South Koreans don’t seem to be too worried about the North. I sometimes think they are just waiting for the right excuse to go up there and clean them out. Politically, they can’t do that until Dear Leader does something incredibly stupid, which may happen in the near future. Things are getting desperate up there.
Soldiers get sent where the action is. That’s why we joined and that’s why we have them. It doesn’t make it any easier for the Mom’s or the soldiers families but that’s the deal we make when we sign up. We train our people well and give them the best equipment money can buy. Anything can happen but the advantage in a fight is with the American’s right now. We have battle tested leadership and the finest fighting force in the world. I think it’s the mom’s of your son’s opponents that should do the worrying. Thank your son for his service for me… You too mom..
Like other commenters have said – North Korea would be very destructive during the opening days of a war. Once the South Koreans and Americans counterattacked, it would be hot knife through butter.
Current South Korean and American equipment is even better now than 20 years ago. The North Korean stuff may not be as good as Saddam’s army. The only real challenge would be the terrain.
I can’t assure you that your son will be safe any more than I can guarantee that I’ll make home from work safely tonight. There will, however, be relatively few American casualties in a Korean war.
If China were to enter a Korean War again, that would be a very different story.
This comment is directed toward the pajamasmedia.com technical crew. How about putting in an author’s byline somewhere on the piece itself, other than just on the home page? I’m reading it, but have no idea who wrote it (Dan Miller) without looking back at the home page. Very inconvenient if the author puts in comments but you don’t know they’re the author’s, because their name is not on a byline anywhere near where the text of the article is.
Check at the top of the piece. Dan Miller’s name is right there.
Soldier Mom,
Unfortunately, what will happen will happen and there is nothing worrying about your son will do except make you and probably him miserable. Know that deployment to the Korean penisula has had risks since the cease-fire was negotiated. It’s a tinderbox, but a long-standing one with great implications if lit off, and that is in your and our favor.
Chances are, the rattling will continue, but no breakout. I pray for your piece of mind and your son, and all the other military serving in Korea. I remember, in the 80′s, when I was in the Army, things got a bit hot a couple of times and I heard from buddies of mine that were stationed there of the things they endured.
It’s a ridiculous situation that we are still sitting there, under a truce, of a 60 year old war; always ready, but vulnerable. We would win any conflict, no question. Obviously those that are right there are at the greatest risk though. Hang in there. At least with the internet and modern phones your son will be in closer contact with you ( or can be ) than ever before.
Two more things the US administration should do but won’t:
1. Blockade Somalia’s pirate ports indefinitely, even if we have to act unilateraly.
2. Enforce a no-fly zone over Libya–again, even if unilaterally.
But this crowd of contemptible weaklings will ‘assess’ and ‘coordinate’ and issue stern statements from here to eternity. Truly disgusting!
This pretty much says it all.
here is another take …google chrome does a decent translation.
http://www.olavodecarvalho.org/semana/110221dc.html
I am truly afraid of the use Mr Soros will make of the worlds crisies to benefit himself and the socialist crowd.
“Never let a crisis go to waste”. Was that Rahm’s quote, and did it come from Soros.?
I think it will end in ‘Marshall Law’ in the US.
There is an update here and here’s another: the
beatingsexecutions will continue until morale improves.Since December, approximately three million leaflets as well as instant rice, radios, toothpaste, toothbrushes, pens and erasers have been ballooned into the DPRK and they are drawing attention there. Chosun Ilbo reported the executions of two people in the DPRK.
It is interesting that a “high-ranking regional military officer” was one of the two executed, suggesting either that he miscalculated grossly or that strenuous efforts are perhaps being made to keep the military loyal to the Kim regime. Pocketing a few dollar bills probably would not, in whatever passes for normal circumstances in the DPRK, be considered a sufficiently serious offense to execute one of the military’s high-ranking own and to send his family packing off to a concentration camp. There have been at least a few other military executions, including “the platoon leader of the border garrison on charges of narcotics smuggling and human trafficking. . . . [and] a noncom officer of the border garrison was executed in January for having aided and abetted the defection of a family.” Their offenses would appear to have been more detrimental to the powers that be than the pocketing of a few dollar bills.
The noise from the DPRK continues. On March 1, it
Meanwhile, the Obama Administration is giving further consideration to resuming the provision of food aid.
According to the Voice of Russia in New York City,
Right. The DPRK starves its peasants to supply food and other resources to its elite “leaders” (who get some pretty neat luxuries) and very large military, prepares for another nuclear test, threatens nuclear conflagration, makes hit and run attacks on places held by the South, and begs for food in exchange for “peace” so long as “humanitarian assistance” is provided. And the United States is “considering” resumption of enabling the DPRK.
Same ol’ Shiite from the DPRK, interesting response from South Korea.
Are the ROK forces up to that sort of independent initiative?