Has Obama Made Health Care Reform Too Big to Fail?
A decisive vote or votes on the latest version of the health care reform bill may be held in the House on Sunday. The Slaughter rule may be used to shield nervous Democrats from having to cast two votes (one for the original Senate version, one for the “fixes” that will become the reconciliation package to be passed in the Senate). Instead, only one vote may be taken for the “fixes” and the original Senate bill will be deemed to have passed when that occurs.
Democrats are eager to change the subject from the sleazy approach they may use to help ensure passage to the good news they are trumpeting from the CBO’s latest scoring of the bill. The scoring is a joke, but that is not the CBO’s fault. The Democrats insisted on scoring the cost for the first ten years, not the first ten years the program is fully in effect. As a result, Nancy Pelosi is beaming that the cost of the new reform package is under a trillion over ten years.
The reality is that it will cost over two trillion dollars for the first ten years the full benefit package is provided. The alleged deficit reduction is a bigger distortion. The doctor-payment fix for Medicare that will cost over $250 billion in the next ten years, and double that the following decade, is not included in the bill. The new long term-care benefit has a positive cash flow in the first ten years, since young people are paying in, but that will not pay out until later decades.
Does anyone really believe that huge Medicare cuts, half the financing for the bill, will be kept in place once the bill is passed? The tax on high-cost health plans has now been deferred to 2018 to please the unions. Will the Democrats, over the next eight years, find a way to push this back even more or kill it entirely? The reality is that the spending is real and probably understated, and the financing is not.
But will the CBO score, and the Slaughter rule, give the reform backers enough cover to squeeze the last few wavering Democrats to vote yes and finally get this to the president to sign next week? President Obama certainly has to hope so. As has been the case throughout the saga of this bill’s slow progression through the House and Senate, every time the president makes a personal push for the bill, his approval ratings collapse.
The Rasmussen survey shows that 23% strongly support President Obama at this point and 44% strongly oppose him — the largest deficit (-21%) since he became president. His overall approval score is -10% (45% approval, 55% disapproval) according to Rasmussen. In the Real Clear Politics average, Obama’s average approval score went negative for the first time this week; it also turned negative for the first time in the Gallup survey.
The president first delayed and then postponed his trip to Asia. He even stopped bashing his favorite whipping boy, the nation of Israel, for a few days in order to concentrate on health care reform, since he regarded passage as of “paramount importance.”
Will the president push Pelosi’s number to the 216 needed for passage? Bettors think that is now likely, with the Intrade numbers rising all week and now suggesting the chances for approval are about 80%. As would be expected, Speaker Pelosi and her lieutenants have been very confident in public statements all week that she will have the votes when she needs them.
What this obviously means is that Pelosi does not yet have the 216 votes, and that is why the president is sticking around to break a few more knees (with help from Rahm Emanuel when necessary) or offer a few more bribes. The Republicans have no leverage among wavering Democrats.
Well,ObozoCare may be ‘too big to fail’ but Barokeydoke himself sure as hell isn’t
From my point of view Obama’s presidency is beyond salvation. Someone needs to call bullshit on the costs and success of his initiatives. If anyone cane name one major federal program that has been done on or under budget and performed as promised you would be the first person to document such a program. Obama and congress have less control and honesty that crack whores. The hard part to accept is that the crack whores are in controll until at least the November elections,
I’m hoping it’s to obese to move. Wishful thinking, I know.
Voting for Obama was the cheapest indulgence and greatest – and now most expensive – self-indulgence.
If it passes we need to fight it at all costs. It is a take-over of our country by a commie, socialist, elitist.
If the bill doesn’t fail..we as a nation will..
For whom the bell tolls…
“Forgets” a lot of the promises that’re supposed to be in there, too.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_health_care_obama_s_promises
I’m glad I’m old.
America as I knew it in my youth is over now, just a shell of it’s former self. The new entitlement generation can feed on the carcass of what was built by their betters, because their fathers and grandfathers were actually willing to work and fight for freedoms they will now never enjoy.
It’s really sad because this used to be something worth defending. America is circling the drain now. Brought down not by an enemy outside, but by the decay within.
All bow down and praise Obama. He’s the one. The one who crapped on the Constitution.
9. jb,
Well, that’s an effed up attitude to leave as a legacy.
the effed up legacy is what’s being rammed down our throats in this country.
Obama loves it, because It is still all about him-Obama.
He knows that angry voters in November 2010 will throw out enough Democrats that our ‘House,’
as old Abe used to call it,
will still be divided, even slanted toward more Republicans in office.
Then he thinks that in 2012-
39 million more ?Americans with the promise of future health care will feel sorry for him and vote to put him back into the presidency to keep the Republicans balanced and in check, and that he will pass the bills he has promised to we unwashed masses..
I like John Forbes Nash, Jr’s. comment.
“There are no mathematical solutions for politicians or politics, because they ‘politicians’ are not logical.
We should not waste our time or intellectual pursuits concerning them.”
-And ‘they’ tried to say the man was a crazy professor?
”Will the president push Pelosi’s number to the 216 needed for passage?”
For all the talk of members who aren’t listening to those they represent, democrats have often claimed to be “leading” when they ignore those who voted for them. That’s why we need keep reelecting them, they argue, so that they’ll have the experience to ignore us. Rich makes a good point about those falling on their swords for the party being well rewarded for obeying the party rather than their constituents (should those constituents actually vote the democrat out of office). We, the voters, allowed them to create “non-partisan non-profit” organizations and bathe democrats in or out of office with millions of dollars, shouldn’t we be happy with the results of our looking the other way? The majority elected this thug as well as the members of the House who have lined up with him. I hope those who voted this crowd in and gave them a majority in both the House and the Senate gets exactly what they wanted, democrat representatives who laugh at them and tell them they’re too stupid to make decisions for themselves. Gloating and the so bipartisan, “I won, you lost” is just what Barry was offering and the American people loved it enough to put him in office in spite of knowing he routinely ignored the law.
”Does anyone really believe that huge Medicare cuts, half the financing for the bill, will be kept in place once the bill is passed?”
Unless those who have long ignored, shrugged off, or rationalized, the real nature of the democrat party can somehow be shocked into turning against democrats permanently, it’s only a matter of time before this atrocity or some other gets passed and grants democrats the sort of total control they feel they are entitled to. This bill may actually be sufficient to shock those “independent” voters and “moderate” democrat voters who have for so long chosen to ignore the facts. People who listened to the democrat siren song that “both parties are alike” after six years of Republican majorities out of the past fifty need to pay the price for their own ignorance. For some reason, I don’t think voters gullible enough to ignore Carter, Clinton, Frank, and the regulations they created, then join democrats in blaming Bush for the mortgage bubble are going to start facing up to reality without first having this democrat “health” bill rolled up and shoved up their nose. The people in this country have to be willing to not only toss out the current crop of democrats, but to roll back their decades of gains as well.
I think there’s another factor at work as well, it’s just time for the 20th century illusion of socialism to collapse. Unless voters here can’t hide from the fact that the democrat party as a whole cares far more about their socialist agenda than the Constitution, we’ll end up being among the last to shed the socialist illusion rather than having never completely fallen for that lie. The Soviet Union collapsed, the EU nations are collapsing, but slowly by pretending that the whole in Europe is greater than the sum of the parts, and I think China will be returning to warlordism or at least strong regionalism to shed the last vestiges of socialism there. As I said (here on PJ or somewhere else) back in the fall when Barry still was wearing his smiley face mask, “There Will Be Blood” is the best description how things will be if Barry got elected. Someone as mentally unbalanced as he can’t resist inciting mob or stirring up a mob against him and would love to forcefully confront “bonus marchers” as FDR did.
If this bill collapses under the democrats, will Barry and Rev Wright types incite their mobs to rioting and burning “in protest”? If the democrats manage to push it through, will the law abiding protests turn ugly and show Barry the true meaning of righteous indignation? Maybe it won’t be mobs, but I now think this bill is going to trigger violence either way it goes. There are, in fact, probably democrats who hope for and will work for a violent reaction if this passes in hopes of generating a backlash they can profit from. That’s the sort of folks the majority have elected for decades and now granted total control, so that’s the sort folks now telling us that we aren’t capable of making our own health and diet decisions much less govern ourselves.
Regards
Since they all took an oath to uphold the constitution, aren’t they all either be impeached, or recalled?
While I count on the resilience of the american people; I am still appalled by this dirty, and corrupt governing at this time. I left a country as corrupt, and beyond repair, and found my life pleasant here in America. It is the only country on earth which provides ‘True” freedom; so why would any of these bozos want to change it, and do the bidding of Soros, and UN, as well as the Unions is beyond me.
While there are many like me (we can’t vote yet), I still hope that all this corruption blowes up in flames, and stop this fascist train approaching.
“…We should not waste our time or intellectual pursuits concerning them”
And so much of the population was unconcerned with pursuing the underlying truth of Obama that he became president. This laissez=-faire attitude is what got us into this crisis.
Obama never would have been elected President if he had told the truth about his marxists/socialists beliefs in teh first place. His chronic lying has caught up with him now so WE the voters are supposed to feel sorry for the Hope and Change Marxist lyer!!
I say it not about this petulent little no-nothing who has never managed anything important in his life, not even a 7-11 cash register. Now under his leadership or his imperial rule, the government owns the home mortgage business (Fannie Freddie), owns 100% of the Student Loan business, owns huge chunks of the Auto Industry, owns the post office, owns the corrupt SEIU unions, and soon will own all hospitals, insurance companies and will control the drug and banks and financial institutions in the US.
God help us but we need to be saved from these tyrants. If we lose this vote, I say we go after this Unconstitutional Power Grab and take back our country from these communist/marxists socialists radical leftists.
There “I said it” to quote the Great One.
Tommy Gunn
Obama and the Dems Lie and Americans will die.
This “health” care law will harm Americans physically and economically.
The Dems do not care about them being voted out. Why? We the people are responsible for their retirement $ and their health care. Oh, and we the people are responsible for paying for all of Obama’s promises to them.
Thank you to all who voted for Obama. You have, while being historic and COOL, have destroyed the US.
Peanut gallery peanut #11 is kinda fun, Dr. Bones. It/she/he expects “the 20th century illusion of socialism to collapse.”
And where should this collapse take place if not right here in our own holy Homeland™ after several years of Kennebunkport-Crawfordian bliss?
I suppose the neocomrad[ess] must expect the Islamophalangitarian Menace (Pat. Pend.) to met its Waterloo in Patagonia or the Bronx.
(( As often, there would be quite a lot to be said for their spooofery if only they were doin’ it on purpose. ))
Healthy days.
15. bonny kate:
You caught that-
Remember, I said he was called a crazy college professor.
The first part about them being illogical is true.
The second part about them being a ‘waste of our time’ are liberal higher learning instructions,
unless you are stuck in – politics 101.
We should hope that the silent majority of “independents” “fence sitters” are waking up to the disaster that the Obamanation Administration and its minions in Congress, the Drive-by Media, corrupt academics, statist Union thugs, sleazy Hollywood experts on “human folly” and Nobless Oblige wealthy “trust fund babies” and the Chicago gangsters/politicians have designed and executed for America the land of the free. At the outbreak of our glorious Revolution in 1776, the population of America was 1/3 in support of Revolution and seperation from England, 1/3 Tory’s supporting and “supported” by the English Crown and 1/3 fence sitters and band-wagon jumpers. So its not so much different than today and still up to the folk who follow the Constitution in its original design. Remember most of America’s citizen ancestors overcame huge obsticles just to get here and then fought and many died in defense of freedom and liberty. Percentage-wize not many cowards in that group. Time to throw the bums out on their rears and elect true, honest patriots to represent us and reduce the size of government and its spending. Get freedom and liberty back to the citizens its rightful owners.
Two Stories, Too Little Press
. . . Besides, I would add, isn’t this supposed to be a health care bill and not a civil rights bill?
Joe Hicks, a California advisor to that civil rights commission, concludes his observations by writing, “Some say that life is a game of winners and losers. This might be true, but we shouldn’t allow Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid to pick the people who win or lose just because of skin color or their last name:” http://bit.ly/9yenqa
Good point, Joe. Another good point is, Why won’t anyone hear anything about it or about Dutch gays allowing a massacre to happen?
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=1575)
I posted this at another blog and thought I’d post it here too….
I have an idea that just struck me yesterday. If this bill goes through, how about we withhold our taxes until this dreadful bill is fully repealed? We’ll put the money aside in escrow accounts or something and not release it to the Treasury until we’re satisfied that the health care “reform” bill is vanished from the planet.
I would never dream of doing any such thing under normal circumstances, but I’m so opposed to this bill that I would feel fully justified in committing this crime. For this idea to have any momentum, someone prominent and influential would have to lead the charge (Rush?). Faced with a significant number of people threatening to do this (or actually doing it), the politicians would have to pay heed.
For what it’s worth, I present this:
http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2010/03/20/conrad-black-a-second-opinion-on-canadian-and-american-health-care.aspx
The punk deserves failure. But what if I were a Democrat and I supported the punk? Would saving his presidency be worth delivering a blow to the party from which it might not recover? Well, I can always hope and that’s the thought I hope is going round and round in many Dems’ heads.
Why Obamacare can not fail:
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/21177
This is now the beginning of the end of the United States of America as a free nation. Sad!
Obama and Democrats are making it too big to succeed.
If any service that is valuable suddenly becomes “free” to the consumer, the demand for it will grow exponentially. But the “cost” of those services must be paid by someone or else they will not be available at all. So there is only one way this can play out:
1) Usage and therefore costs will escalate dramatically.
2) The practical upper limit of taxation will be quickly reached and the economy will not be able to grow enough to pay the tab. The rest of the world will balk at any more increases in our debt.
3) The government will react by imposing cost controls which will shrink the provider pool.
4) When they see that they cannot win at this fool’s errand of a balancing act, they will have no choice but to ration health services.
5) Those politically well connected will be given preference.
This is what has happened under the socialized medicine schemes of Canada, Massachusetts and Europe. How can any rational person deny this combination of evidence and logic? We are so hosed.
I would much prefer to save the USA than Obama’s awful presidency.
THIS IS NOT A FREE COUNTRY. Free countries have to have educated populations and we don’t. Free countries have to have free markets and we don’t. Free countries have to go by the rule of law and we don’t. Free countries are made of independent people who are willing to be responsible for their own actions and we aren’t. We are collectivists of the worst kind, like Borg. To all of you lowly pusillanimous parts of the collective, man up. Collectivists can NEVER have a free country!
But, wait. There is a silver lining. We will achieve EQUALITY in our poverty and dependency. Maybe then no one will notice, eh?
One did not have to read between the lines to wonder about the truth of all Obama’s promises. Think about the background of his mother and his father. Add his young life living somewhere in Burma or Pango Pango or some such place. His mysterious progression to various Ivy League colleges. Not a word about his SAT scores, his grades, or talks with his classmates. Then there was his job and connections as a community organizer, his friendship with Reverend Wright, his iffy financial deals regarding his house in Chicago, his known friends and associates or lack thereof. The man was never capable of leading a country such as the US…maybe Pago Pago would fit him better. It is up to voters to think when they vote. Unfortunately, no information about him WAS ever published in the media but we have google now and almost everyone could look him up.
I think obama’s health reform plan is a great idea.
The Dems do not care about them being voted out. Why? We the people are responsible for their retirement $ and their health care. Oh, and we the people are responsible for paying for all of Obama’s promises to them.
Nice piece on Obama’s Healthcare Reform. Although I am interested in
finding out more information on how this healthcare reform will affect
access to doctors, and if there will be increased wait times. I found
this one site to be another good resource on Obama Healthcare Reform.