Has Michele Bachmann Become Mitt Romney’s Main Rival?
Rasmussen Reports conducted the first poll of likely Republican primary voters after the New Hampshire GOP debate laR week. The survey appeared to show a breakout for Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, as she vaulted into second place in the GOP race with 19% support from Republican voters, trailing only Mitt Romney at 33%.
The survey, conducted among 1,000 likely GOP primary voters across the country, was taken one day after the debate at Saint Anselm College, one in which Bachmann was identified by many political analysts as having had a very good night.
The polling numbers for Bachmann suggested to some that she had become the principal alternative for the Tea Party wing of the GOP to former Governor Romney. The Rasmussen survey indicated that Romney and Bachmann were each the choice of 26% of those in the survey who self-identified as Tea Party members. Romney led Bachmann by just over a 2 to 1 margin, 36% to 16%, among all others in the survey. Bachmann was also judged to be the most conservative of those whose names were offered to respondents.
One name, however, was not offered as a choice to those taking part in the Rasmussen survey — that of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Palin has not entered the race for the nomination, and it is pure speculation at this point whether she will in the future. In the other eight GOP candidate polls listed by RealClearPolitcs, Palin was one of the candidates offered as a choice to survey respondents. In the Rasmussen survey, the only national poll conducted since the New Hampshire debate, Palin was left off, though Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor who has not formally entered the race but is considered certain to do so, was included.
The other eight most recent GOP surveys listed by RealClearPolitics included both Bachmann and Palin. In those eight surveys, Palin averaged 18% support, second to Romney at 23.4%, while Bachman averaged 4.8% All of those polls were concluded before the New Hampshire debate with the exception of one by NBC and the Wall Street Journal that surveyed over five days, the final one the night of the debate.
It is pretty clear that the absence of Palin from the Rasmussen survey aided Bachman. It is not clear, however, how high Bachmann will poll if Palin were to be included in future surveys while her candidate status remained unclear, or were she to enter the race. Prior to the New Hampshire debate, during which Bachmann formally announced her entrance into the race (it had been widely assumed for weeks that she was running), Bachmann was tied with Tim Pawlenty, a fellow Minnesotan, and trailed Romney, Palin, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. In the three surveys where former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was one of the choices, he too led Bachmann, finishing second or third in each survey.
It will take a few more surveys, both with and without Palin, to better gauge Bachmann’s trajectory. In any case, she starts the race with some good notices and an opportunity to do well in the early contests. The Rasmussen poll makes her the most visible alternative to Romney for now.
One of the fascinating things about the debate Monday and the pundit class reaction to Bachmann was how much more favorable it was than the treatment that Palin has received from many of the same people the last two and a half years. Since the two women share a few things — good looks, mothers to five children, and solid conservative credentials, especially on social and economic policy — the contrast in the coverage of the two is striking.
Romney the choosing global warming entitlement pimp. Turn your head and vote.
We already have 3-4 fine conservatives in the race. Hopefully as they layout there vision Romney will lose support. Or Pawlenty the paper RINO mans up and attacks Romney. Pawlenty needs to realize he could be Cain’s or Bachmanns vp if he dogs Romney.
I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Pawlenty to cowboy up; it’s simply not his style. As for Romney, he’ll defend his record as a governor and a campaigner, refusing to admit to any mistakes or political switchbacks, until the stars fall from the sky.
Something to bear in mind about Romney is that he occupies the same position John McCain did in 2007 and early 2008: he’s the media’s preferred Republican. Romney likes media attention and approbation; he’s torn between his impulse to pander to the cameras and his understanding of his shortcomings as a candidate in an anti-Establishment era.
If I understand the temper of the electorate accurately, Romney won’t get the nomination; he’s simply too much the Old Guard Establishmentarian. But who will get it will be determined by who throws his hat into the ring.
If Palin stays out, Bachmann would be the favorite. If Palin declares, then Bachmann will be marginalized; Palin might not win the nod, but she’ll draw off enough of Bachmann’s support to doom Bachmann’s candidacy. The great hazard is that Huntsman might get it — and he might, if Palin should declare — in which case we’d better be braced for a second Obama term.
I suppose this is a demonstration that there’s such a thing as too many good candidates for a single position.
Of course Bachmann is not electable though a great person. Palin hardly has any better chance. Paul(following his passions) and Gingrich (following his book sales) are sideshows.
The only GOP contenders that could win are Romney and Perry. Romney is boring, predictable and has a healthcare Achilles heal.
Obama, for all his faults and a horrible economy, can still win if the GOP candidate is the least bit weak.
Perry, it seems is not weak, so would have the best shot at winning.
…. Perry, it seems is not weak, so would have the best shot at winning ….
Governor Perry might have a snow ball’s chance in Hell at the nomination at which I pray to God the RINO ratbag, Mr Romney, has not. But Mr Perry would soon find himself mischaracterized by 0Zero’s two Billion Dollars foreign-enemy-funded campaign and effectively Ten Billion Dollar of free advertising Buraq Hussayn 0zero will be afforded by the treasonous drive-by lickspittle media!
Better we get used to saying:
President and Armed-Forces Commander-In-Chief-Elect Sarah Louise Ronald Wilson Reagan Heath Palin.
“It is pretty clear that the absence of Palin from the Rasmussen survey aided Bachman.”
Indeed. One thing I’ve seen people claim makes Palin unelectable, that she is too far to the right, Bachmann really is. Romney is not a RINO, but he’s someone who is Republican Enough for the North East-RENE. Every where else but California, that makes him a tax and spend, big government liberal.
Palin is by far to be preferred to either one.
If Mitt Socialized-Medicine-and-Homosexual-”marriage”-promoter-Extraordinaire Romney is not a RINO, there is no such thing as a RINO.
Plain has mostly right values due to her upbringing. She has integrity, and she has guts.
What she does NOT have is sufficient knowledge of the world at large, NOR does she have much brainpower. She’s not stupid, but she’s not noticeably intelligent, either.
She’s not Presidential material.
Mark v:
What we need is four more years of Obama. Is that what you’re saying?
Not noticably intelligent????? Perhaps you should read or watch (if you cant read) Charles Krauthammer and Chris Wallace. They think she is very smart.
Sarah Palin’s level of intelligence is way underestimated. You don’t get to where she is without smarts, and she’s done it all on her own – no husband’s or daddy’s coattails to ride, a la Hillary or Lisa Murkowski. She constantly out-maneuvers Obama verbally, and makes him look like an idiot. Usually a step ahead, she has good political instincts. Leaving Alaska was a brilliant move. She knew she could have never been able to fight for the survival of our country by bird-dogging Obama from the governor’s office. As an ordinary citizen voicing her opinion, Obama is pretty much unable to respond to her, much less stop her. Sarah Palin is the real deal. She’s the only one out there who is beholden to no one – in either party. That she is not an ivy-league educated lawyer makes her even more attractive.
Why is Bachmann “not electable?” Because a bunch of LameStream Media say she isn’t.
We are the electorate, and we determine who is “electable.”
Palin and Bachmann are not electable. According to whom? According to the liberal media. Why do you assume as true the shiboleths of the drive by media and leftist in general? Read history, especial the history or Ronald Reagan’s electoral victories.
I’ve been a Palinist, but I could also happily vote for a Perry/Bachmann ticket. One question is, does Bachmann want the warm bucket of spit? Another is, would she ditch the bucket and act Cheney-esque?
Another question is, how long are Republicans going to cling to the idea of legislating social conservatism? This article cites an impressive list of surveys and polls. Surveys and polls also show that Americans are increasingly tolerant of gay marriage.
You might want to try doing your homework. Pro-life is a winning position at the polls in national elections.
Also, social conservatives have a far better track record of standing firm on fiscal issues than do “fiscal conservatives”.
President and Armed-Forces Commander-In-Chief-Elect Sarah Louise Ronald Wilson Reagan Heath Palin.
Hmmmmmmm …..
What a nice ring that has to it.
Think I’ll say it again:
President and Armed-Forces Commander-In-Chief-Elect Sarah Louise Ronald Wilson Reagan Heath Palin.
It would be great to see a woman get the nomination for the GOP, and to know that all of those feminist jerk-wads (which includes males) on the left would be squirming with hypocrisy as they contrive every reason to refuse to vote for a capable woman. Not to mention the default hypocrisy of those who were all about a “historical presidency” in regards to electing the first black man.
Keep an eye on Michele Bachmann. I don’t know if she has the power to be at the top of the presidential ticket, but she certainly could be vice president. And this time around, I doubt she will allow herself to be “Palinized,” or destroyed by the main stream media during the election. I’m sure all female candidates have learned a lot from 2008. Hope she’s learned her lessons well, because you just know what the main stream media and the far-left are going to try and do to her. But she’s smart and tough (you have to be after raising all those kids) and she sounds honest and true. Can’t ask for more than that in a candidate.
Because of her education credentials Bachmann will be harder to palinize (no need for the quotation marks- Palin is now responsible for the introduction of 3 words into the lexicon: refudiate, lamestream and palinize .
Several months age I challenged the unschooled Vodka Pundit when he dismissed Bachmann as a mere verbal bomb thrower. I love Bachmann but I believe that in order to restore American values the LSM needs to be chopped down to size. They need to report rather than rally and propagandize. And there is only one person in America with the stomach for the job of taking on these traders to the ideals of their profession.
The repubs better get it together PDQ.
Obama has more than 50% of the electorate without spending a dime.
25% hard core Democrat and coastal liberals (can’t reason with them)
13% blacks that won’t change
12% hispanics (notMiami Cubans)that are true believers in the lib emotional cant
5% vote early, vote often, little acorners, junkies and illegals
Bill Clinton won with only 43%. =:o’bama doesn’t even need the repubs to split like they are.
Maybe a dozen more Weiners and a super policy failure like a terrorist attack or an Iran bomb which can be pinned with certainty on The One will make a difference. But today’s repub split and uncertain field cannot.
i agree with your distribution- more or less
but what about this part?- obama is not likely to gain “new” voters– other than new 18 year old voters that arrive on the scene– and of the votes he had in 2008 there is probably a decent amount of those who could go the other way
i think this is a dead heat from the start and the question will be whether or not the message of conservatism persuades more than the drones and “chicago election method”
Pelaut:
In the latest legitimate national poll on Friday, Mitt Romney was at 42% and could without a doubt defeat Obama in 2012. His closest rival was at 16%.
With that reality, the naysayers and bigots continue to insist that we all commit collective suicide. How many more names will they come up with now that we have John Huntsman? It’s apparently infinite. Have to stop the cultist at any cost.
Run Sarah run. Give ‘em hell Mitt.
The only reason the “right wing pundits” praise Bachman is they rightly (imo) suspect she can’t win the nomination (no executive experience). And of course the Left thinks she could not beat Obama.
“Our” guys prefer a Rino sadly.
We need more moderates in the race for the nomination, thats why I hope Giuliani joins the field soon and that Huntsman can bottle up his Obama love long enough to cost Romney votes. If that is the case Bachmann could end up on the top of the ticket.
Romney is the best known, but weakest, Republican contender for the nomination. He is fast becoming the establishment Republican’s first choice ahead of Pawlenty and Obama’s Trojan Horse…John Huntsman. The only strong Conservatives in this race are Cain, Bachmann, and West…. but West and Palin aren’t in… yet. Perry might be an interesting addition as would Giuliani. Gingrich is the best debater.
This is more of the usual BS. Rival to Romney? Who honestly thinks Romney really is the front-runner?
He fits the mold. He does the dance. He embraces some Leftist BS. He has the money and looks. So, the moderate Republicans, the ones with their entrenched interests, the ones who waste their time listening to Sunday political talk-shows, the ones who buy into the Leftist powerful-media BS, embrace him as their guy. If Huntsman gets in, maybe they’ll embrace him instead, as he is even more to the Left. These guys are just JIRC’s (Jackasses/Democrats In Republican Clothes).
However, Romney’s name is Mud with the Conservative base. I would rather vote for Obama, because my contempt for Romney is greater even than my contempt for Obama. He is more dangerous to this country than is Obama. Obama’s nonsense we can readily reject. Romney doing similar things legitimizes it and makes it permanent. Bush was a disaster for the Republican Party. So, too, would be Romney.
The Tea Party movement has been the reason for Republican success in the recent election. The ‘moderates’ are still angling to retain control over the Party, trying to keep it the way they like it. However, without the Tea Party, Republicans are still wandering in the wilderness. ‘Moderates’ better get this. Without the Tea Party, you do not even have a seat at the table. Do not think you can take them for a ride. The Republican Party is under probation, and they better start acting like it.
The pendulum swings. For awhile there, it was on the Left with the big government Republicans and the bigger government Democrats. Now it has swung to the Right.
The moderates have had their day in the Sun. They had 8 years with Bush, 4 years with the previous Bush, 8 years with Nixon and Ford, and in every single case, they screwed things up! No more!
Obama was right. Big government Republicans drove the car into the ditch, along with the Dems. They were busy fighting over the steering wheel and the accelerator, but never fighting over the brake. Well, we on the Right, we Conservatives and Libertarians, are going to pull the car out of the ditch, fix it, and get it turned around and heading in the Right direction.
The moderates can come along for the ride, but they will sit in back and support us, and otherwise be quiet, or they can stand on the side of the road sipping Slurpees with the Dems and watch our taillights recede into the distance. Either way, like Obama said, I do not want to hear a lot of talking from them. I do not take counsel from incompetent failures! This country can no longer absorb the damage from their blundering. Follow or get out of the way, because you cannot lead!
Pull your heads out. Romney is unacceptable, period! Do not even THINK about it!
HUZZAH! HUZZAH! HUZZAH!
Well said, sir! Well said!
Sorry, I was at Williamstown recently.
Marc Malon:
“There you go again” Marc. Who is the smartest man in America, you or Barack Obama? How’s your cash flow going?
I hope to goodness you are just using hyperbole. If you really and truly would vote for Obama over Romney, I have nothing but contempt for you. Obama for four more years means, among other things: nuclear obliteration of Israel; Bill Ayers’ “re-education camps”; the Mexican drug cartels’ takeover of the American Southwest, turning the region into a nightmare of nonstop terror; government-enforced euthanasia of handicapped infants and senile elderly; prolonged and deep Depression, if not total economic collapse; storm troopers (“Civilian National Security Force”); rolling blackouts; terror attack(s) that will dwarf 9/11; gun confiscation; government control of everything from your Internet activities to your household electrical usage; severe penalties including jailtime for anyone opposing the radical gay agenda; on and on… it really is too awful to even contemplate.
You shouldn’t even JOKE about facilitating such things.
You have missed the point.
What it counts is not just win an election, as Sarah said, it is all about Principles not about persons. So, Obama has a leftist agenda, and Romney has a Leftist-lite agenda; but the problem with Romney is that by following a leftist-lite agenda, he is just legitimizing that agenda. The results are the same: you walk over the edge toward the abyss or you run and jump toward the abyss, again, the results are the same.
The only difference is that with Romney the liberals will blame the Republicans, they the pendulum will swing to the Democrats again for some years and we will be all screwed up. Romney will blow the last chance to save this country.
It’s better an open honest enemy like Obama instead a false friend like Romney, because you know exactly what are you fighting. And that’s the reason Obama is better than Romney. Four more years of Obama would mean the blames will fall over the correct people to blame and we are going to take back the country anyway after that.
Bravo! I’ve been making that very point for years. How nice it is not to be alone!
Sarah, all others Palin comparison.
Romney is a phony elitist with that Nancy Piglosee type permanent “grin” fixture on his mug. It’s like a $3 bill.
The PERFECT ticket for me would be Bachmann/Palin serving a 50/50 co-presidency, imagine that, what an experiment that would be…& maybe Cain as veep…
50/50 co-Presidency?
I guess you don’t think much of the Constitution.
Just like the Democrats.
Guess you chose to skip over the term “experiment” eh? If ya wanna pick on non believers in the Constitution, just stick to bozObama.
co presidency—> you mean like paullus and varro? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cannae
Bruce, I have a question for you: I was reallly looking forward to seeing Palin at the debate; therefore,
“Why didn’t Palin show up at the debate?” Inquiring minds want to know.
These are the comments I have been receiving why she didn’t show up:
1) Wants the spotlight all to herself;
2) Well, she is no longer under the contract to Fox and her TLC “Alaska Special”; soooo what was she doing.
Bachman was at the debate!
Where was Palin?
Sarah Palin was not there, because, not being a candidate, it would not have been appropriate for her to participate in that debate. Sarah has excellent political instincts, and she is timing her entrance into the prez race. She’s hanging back, in order to allow Obama to continue to F up. The minute she jumps in, the media will turn the spotlight off Obama and onto her, and she wants people to fully focus on what he is doing to us for as long as possible running up to the election. Brilliant thinking. Waiting also preserves her campaign funds and allows her to stretch them to the max. It also allows sufficient time for the declared candidates to reveal themselves to the voters, and allows newbies time to jump in and back out again for lack of voter interest. Sarah Palin knows what she’s doing, so let’s not push her. She’s not a typical politician, so let’s trust her to make the decision as to “when”.
a)She’s not an announced candidate yet, b) she found the debate format, a waste of time, as it proved out to be c) Bachmann, is on Fox, almost every day, she’s
practically an independent contractor, in comparison,
After MB hired Ed Rollins, any talk of Palin supporters gravitating to Bachmann is wishful thinking. Her short term bounce
will fade as Tea Party folks realize her first major campaign move was to hire an ultra Establishment insider to attack
Palin. Bachamann and the Beltway. Little difference in the sameness.
IMO, Bachmann is more of a politician than Palin. After Palin helped get her re-elected, Bachmann jumped in front of Palin and tries to be the Tea Party darling. She’s acting like a Palin-wannabe. But the main deal-breaker for me is Bachmann is too “preachy”. That’s what turned me off of Huckabee. I did not want a preacher for a president. I consider myself a Christian, BUT, I don’t want my president to bring her/his religion into the Oval Office. And Bachmann believing in her ability to turn gays into straights through counseling was the last straw. Palin is just the right amount of Christian for me. She has a good moral Christian upbringing, but does not push it onto her constituents.
Boring– give us Ron Paul or give us death!
it should be said that Bachmann is a newcomer wannabe who enters the fray only after Palin did the hard work, where was Bachmann when Palin was denouncing and fighting the current government*? That’s not doing well in my book. That said, she is better than Romney. If Palin enters, I think the Primary will become a sort of a cat fight. And no, O’Romney is not going to benefit of it, all the contrary.
*and where indeed were all the other candidates too?
Do you not remember how Bachmann led the fight against Obamacare?
Seeing as Obamacare is the number one tyrannical coup by this Administration, I’d say Michele’s leadership counts for a lot.
You mean always AFTER Palin started shooting the heavy artillery. Palin led the charge.
Bachmann ordered Rollins to apologize to Palin. After he does, I expect Palin will endorse Bachmann, the next “Mama Grizzly”. We’ll see.
If Palin runs, I’ll go to work for her. She has been doing battle for 2.5 years now. She has done a great job of damaging the MSM, but she has been damaged in return. She is wounded. Palin is too damaged to become Prez now, I think. Maybe not. If she decides to run, her numbers will go up.
She can still play Kingmaker, though. She can still go around the country making fund-raising and recruitment appearances on behalf of specific candidates. Got a tough Senatorial battle? Bring in Palin for a couple of weeks. We need 12 more Repub Senators. I think it can be done.
Hear, hear! I totally agree. That’s EXACTLY what we need Palin doing. There is no one better at that. Palin was the single most important person in bringing about the conservative landslide in the 2010 midterm elections.
I would think that any Republican would be Romney’s main rival for the Republican nomination.
I rarely have time to go back and analyze the arguments which may be posted in response to my statements—because there are so many far-right-wing-ultra-conservative Internet sites to be read. In positing the following comment, the only thing I ask is that whether the assertions be mine or others,
divest yourselves of all pejorative thinking and investigate for yourself to find the truth:
“The Republican race is contingent upon three theocrats: Perry, Bachmann, and Palin.”
If you want to be entertained, watch FOX, MSNBC, or CNN. If you want to be informed, real news and analysis, watch LinkTV or FreeSpeechTV or CurrentTV for real news, analysis, and documentaries.