Half a Loaf in Ohio’s Issues Election
Above all, and contrary to the establishment media’s furious spin, Issue 3 was no mere “Well, whaddaya think?” exercise. It also wasn’t “largely symbolic,” as a terse, unbylined regional report from AP arrogantly claimed. Symbolize this, guys and gals in the press and throughout the USA: The Ohio Healthcare Freedom Amendment’s text is now embedded in Ohio’s Constitution. Anyone who doesn’t like that result is going to have to force it out of there. It won’t be easy, even with the help of all of Dear Leader Barack Obama’s horses and all of Eric Holder’s men and women, assuming they even hang around long enough to see such an effort through. Any federal or other attempt to undo Issue 3 is by no means assured of success, even if the Supreme Court erroneously rules that ObamaCare itself passes constitutional muster. Folks in other states who wish to protect their fundamental freedoms should seriously consider going the same route as Ohio just did.
Though it wouldn’t have changed the result, part of the blame for the size of Issue 2′s loss rests with a disjointed, unfocused campaign effort which failed to counter opponents’ non-stop stream of flat-out falsehoods. Getting outspent 3-to-1 by largely out-of-state labor interests obviously didn’t help either.
As for the real-world impact of Issue 2′s failure, Kevin O’Brien at the Cleveland Plain Dealer identified it quite succinctly a few days before the election: “Advice to low-on-the-totem-pole union members: Don’t bother celebrating. Do get your resumes in order.”
I would add: “And quickly.” That’s because while Ohioans were voting down Issue 2, they also resoundingly rejected the mother’s milk of the public sector and its unions: tax increases. In Northeast Ohio, “most (school) districts seeking additional money were turned down,” including Akron, which will “have to find a way to trim $22 million from its budget.” The song was the same in Southwest Ohio, where layoffs loom in Cincinnati and five other local school districts after levy defeats.
B-B-B-But I thought massive layoffs were going to happen if Issue 2 passed? Some layoffs might have occurred anyway, but the fact is that if the law known as “SB5″ had survived, districts would be better able to keep staff on board because of the law’s cost-sharing requirements, and would at least know that they can keep future wage increases at or below inflation. The track record of unions, especially those in the public sector, budging on any issue involving reduced pay or benefits is dismal. When faced with a choice between any kind of cut or layoffs, they have historically opted to jettison junior members — a tactic properly described as “eating their young” — even if some of those let go are outstanding workers or even teachers of the year.
The fiscal math which caused Ohio’s three largest newspapers to reluctantly support Issue 2′s passage hasn’t changed. Governor John Kasich and Ohio’s legislative majority will have to at least piecemeal some of SB5′s critical financial elements into law next year, because Ohio is not as far from becoming another disaster like Illinois as we might complacently like to believe.
Meanwhile, any time someone on the left tells you that the American people will eventually come to accept state-controlled health care, point to the Buckeye State. We — Ohio and the rest of the country — aren’t ObamaCare. That stance will prove far more relevant to 2012′s presidential election than Ohio Issue 2.
Thank you for the info.
In fact, I knew nothing about Issue 3.
The Affordable Care Act will ultimately be decided by the courts. The result of Issue 3 is meaningless, other that it serves as a vent to express public opinion on a piece of legislation of which the results are largely unknown because much of it has yet to be enacted.
That’s my take, too. The very most I see Issue 3 doing is forcing a showdown in a federal court, which could go either way.
It’s interesting that the bill on Obamacare was defeated while the bill on unions was a victory for organized labor. You would think that organized labor would be thrilled with Obamacare. Wouldn’t it help “reduce” insurance costs for its members? Bull. The union members know that they could never get better insurance policies under Obamacare instead of the great plans they have now. In fact, Obamacare would probably be a demotion in health care for union members, since corporations would probably force union members into Obamacare rather than pay for those high union medical plans. So defeating Obamacare may have some unlikely allies: Unions and their members plus the Republican party. Maybe Republicans can use this greed on the part of union members to their advantage in repealing Obamacare in 2012? Maybe.
Ohio will just have to start firing public employees to balance the budget. That is what Walker warned would happen in Wisconsin unless local governments were able to cut costs by reducing benefits. His reforms passed and as far as I know layoffs were avoided.
ObamaCare defeat was fine. Losing the overturn vote was bad. However, the legislature can just pass another law. The problem is that Kasich loses clout with this defeat. His popularity is suffering. Can he get another law passed, or will the legislature just punk?
For those who think Congress will guide Romney as President, that’s not how it works. If the executive is not driving the agenda, chances are it won’t happen. Without Kasich, this doesn’t happen, and now, he may not be able to drive it. Ohio may be truly screwed now.
The Unions are right. This is a major victory, because they have damaged the Governor. They are beginning to reverse the Red tide, or at least are slowing the momentum.
“the legislature can just pass another law?” Are you nuts? It ain’t gonna happen. This loss was BIG and has meaning. Sure, go for it if the GOP wants another punch in the face. Listen to el rusho, LOL
It’s going to be humorous as hell when Ohio’s state finances go into the toilet in a few years, propping up the government retirees golden retirements while regular folks are working until they’re 80.
Can you say “lynch mobs and guillotines”?
Lemme guess: Average Ohio Voter – “Hey how about them Browns and them Cavaliers?”.
They deserve their plight.
Someone was asleep at the switch.
“Though it wouldn’t have changed the result, part of the blame for the size of Issue 2′s loss rests with a disjointed, unfocused campaign effort which failed to counter opponents’ non-stop stream of flat-out falsehoods. Getting outspent 3-to-1 by largely out-of-state labor interests obviously didn’t help either”.
The failure of the pro-smaller government forces to effectively organize and campaign for Issue 2 is not a good sign for the 2012 campaign in Ohio.
Good points. However when the the Ohio government is out spent by unions, who spent over $30 million, on Issue 2, it puts the vote into better perspective.
Kasich should have declared either we get union pensions and benefits in line with the private sector or you, the voters, face higher taxes or layoffs. BUT he waited until the vote was cast. Either he is dumb or Ohio voters are glactically stupid. What part of paying for union benefits, salaries and penions by the public is so difficult to understand? Who do Ohio voters think pays for union workers?
why blotto they think the good union fairy does that,
Good analysis, Tom, and a valuable reminder of how powerful/important the win on Ohio Health Care Freedom of Choice is.
The fallout from the SB5 defeat remains to be seen, but it doesn’t bode well for the state long term.
Funny thing! I worked on Issue 3 for one year gathering signatures, with many reluctant to sign. It took the unions less than 6 weeks to garner signatures for the repeal of SB5.
I blame the administration for not having news conferences to explain what the real facts of SB5 was all about.
Many in this community I live in stated that Kasich was out to destroy the unions, private and otherwise. No amount of explanation could convince them otherwise. Even a local high school teacher said she would quit if SB5 passed. I told her she probably should.
My fervent hope that Ohio raises sales taxes and income taxes to help with this budget crisis. I want to hear the moaning and the bitching. I relish the thought for the voters not knowing whatthey were voting for or against.
Bill I agree with you about the taxes but they need to raise the property tax allso and by a good margin too. you see those union members are primarily the ones with property to tax,
You really want to see the sheeple moan, bitch & squirm? Make all of those tax hikes retroactive to Jan. 1, as Connecticut recently did. Then have the gun-range-style ear protection handy for when they get their next (much smaller) paychecks. Then start a U-Haul or Ryder franchise for when they start fleeing to Texas, Tennessee or Florida.
Actually, State Issue 2 was doomed to failure when Senate Bill 5, the law it was intended to preserve, was printed in the newspapers. It covered 36 pages of newsprint, single-spaced, and was roughly as easily explainable as the finer points of ObamaCare. Simply put, Ohioans weren’t going to OK a law that was longer than the Declaration of Independence, United States Constitution, and Ohio State Constitution combined. Complexity does not make good law.
That said, it is more important that, in addition to passing State Issue 3, the voters here defeated State Issue 1 by roughly the same margin as that by which they approved Issue 3. Issue 1, if passed, would have amended the Ohio Constitution to allow state court judges to serve until age 75, instead of the present 70.
It would also have abolished the election of judges, replacing it with selection by a “state judicial panel” appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the State Senate. In both cases, the appointments would have essentially been for life.
The same people who wanted to defeat Issue 2 were determined to pass Issue 1, because it would make the courts in Ohio more “progressive-friendly”, i.e., as long as “right-thinking people” were on the judicial council, the progressives could be assured of judges who shared their vision of “social justice”. For an example of how this would work, see California.
Fortunately, in moving Heaven, Earth, and a good bit of Hell to defeat Issue 2, the usual suspects failed to push hard enough on Issue 1 to get it passed. Preserving a reasonably unbiased judiciary in the Buckeye State for the nonce. This will not be good for their dispositions, once they realize that their “great victory” was more Pyrrhic than they would like. Most obviously, taking public employee union/management disputes to court will not automatically equal a pro-union decision without a lot of “judge shopping”- which the State Appeals Court and Supreme Court view very suspiciously.
My guess is, their next step will be to directly attack those two courts. Look for demands for “greater judicial accountability” to, not the people, but to “the best and brightest”. Probably originating from the same source as Issue 1.
They may not be smart, but they are consistent. Of course, so was Khan Noonian Singh, and look what happened to him.
clear ether
eon
Love the Star Trek reference. If only there were enough truly altruistic people to make that philosophy work.
One little nit to pick on the “They may not be smart, but they are consistent. Of course, so was Khan Noonian Singh, and look what happened to him.” They are, and he was, smart. They, and he, just didn’t believe in the possibility of someone smarter. Hubris, not lack of intelligence, will be their downfall.
I live in Ohio and have been a student of the SB 5/Issue 2 since it’s inception. Ohio is one of the states most in need of relief from it’s public employee unions which are among the most powerful and self-serving in the United States. Big Labor put all of it’s considerable resources in villifying Issue 2 while Issue 3 remained largely an afterthought.
Issue 2 was defeated for several reasons. Kasich was game but unfocused. He could never find the right set of instantly recognizable rhetorical markers to lay out the case in favor of it. He presented his arguments too much like a seminar paper on public administration in grad school. The labor crowd owned all the images of family, children, security and “worker’s rights.”
The major players however where the public safety unions. Ohio’s police and fire unions were on the front lines against Issue 2 and put all of their prestige and “hero” mythology into it. The not-so-subtle message was that passage of Issue 2 would result in a massive crime wave and people dying on the floor while waiting for the EMT’s.
Mr. Blumer is correct that the triumphaism that surrounds the defeat of Issue 2 will be used to obscure the rejection of Obamacare medical programs. However since the issue of Obamacare’s mandatory coverage provisions will eventually be decided by the courts it really doesn’t matter.
If the GOP doesn’t understand by now that when they take the approach of going after public sector unions, if they include the two “third rails of politics”, going after the fire and police unions, then they are in for a real “ass-whipping” in 2012 in spite of the gains made in 2010. Kasich didn’t learn one thing from Walker in Wis. He should have.
These are two sacred cows, like it or not, accept it or not. Even the most hardened fiscal conservative has an inner resistance to going after firemen and policement. No wonder the damn thing went in favor of the Democrats and unions. Kasich was an idiot to ever, ever, ever allow or introduce either of the two into the equation.
Sometimes you have to take your head out of the nether regions of the body and pay attention to what is going on around you. Ohio and Wisconsin are not the same demographic make-up and never will be.
I am a fiscal and social conservative, but even I would have had a difficult time voting with Kasich on this one. That is where the defeat centers, among moderates and conservatives, not the unions and Democrats.
Hopefully the GOP will come to its senses on some of these issues and leave the poison pills in the bottle where they belong.
Of course Issue 3 was defeated. No one in their right mind wants to spend THEIR money. On the other hand issue 2 is spending “other peoples money”.
Perhaps our side needs to take a page from the liberal playbook.
So Kasich overreached with SB5. The next step: pass the same laws, but in separate bills. Obviously some of the less popular changes may not get through the Ohio legislature, but splitting these up forces the unions to gather far more signatures and spend far more money trying to defeat six or seven different amendments. More likely they will choose two to three, so we gain the other four or five provisions.
Incrementalism is how Ohio got into this mess, and it’s likely the best way out.
And since I used to live in Toledo, this conservative Republican can’t be found there anymore. But they indeed have a lot of union reps both public and private.
Great, thanks for sharing this blog post.Thanks Again. Keep writing.