GOP Senate Prospects Still Lagging
At the start of the year, conservatives opposed to ObamaCare believed there were two realistic paths to overturning the administration’s signature piece of legislation from the president’s first term. The first was a decision by the Supreme Court to invalidate the legislation. The other was for the GOP to retain control of the House in the 2012 election, take back control of the Senate, win the White House, and then use the budget reconciliation process in 2013 to undo much of the law. It now appears that for a brief period in the spring the Supreme Court was ready to rule the bill unconstitutional, until Chief Justice Roberts flipped his vote to preserve the law.
The remaining electoral path does not, at the moment, appear promising.
Early in 2012, the Republicans seemed to have a good chance of holding the House and winning back control of the Senate. Taking back the White House was always a tougher challenge, running against a well-funded, personally popular incumbent. Now, less than four weeks from Election Day, the GOP appears to be in good shape in terms of maintaining its majority in the House, even if Republicans lose a few seats from the current majority, most likely in Illinois, New York, Florida, and California. Mitt Romney has mounted a strong comeback after a tough September and pulled about even in the presidential race, after a wipeout of the president in their initial head-to-head debate in Denver. But the Romney comeback has not been matched by any apparent improvement in the chances for several GOP Senate contenders who have slipped badly in recent months.
Starting with Scott Brown’s upset victory in the special election in Massachusetts, the Republicans went on to gain seven Senate seats in the 2010 cycle to get to 47. Some of the gains were in blue states such as Illinois and Pennsylvania. Three more winnable seats — in Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado – were lost due to weaker candidates winning Republican primaries and then losing in the general election. The worst of the blown opportunities were in Delaware and Nevada.
To win a Senate majority, the Republicans started the year needing to win a net of three seats, assuming a Republican won the White House (with the VP breaking a 50-50 tie), or four if Obama held on and won re-election. With 33 Senate seats being contested, 23 of them held by Democrats, it appeared that 2012 was a target-rich environment for Republicans.
Only two Republican-held seats appeared to be in serious jeopardy: Dean Heller (an appointed senator) in Nevada and Scott Brown in very Democratic Massachusetts. Then Olympia Snowe, Maine’s popular Republican senator, announced she would not run for re-election and former Governor Angus King entered the race as an independent (but one likely to caucus with Democrats if he wins). Maine is a state where independents run very well, and King shot out to a big lead. While Republican Charlie Summers has run a good campaign, he trails by over 10 points, as Democrats in the state have abandoned their own nominee, Cynthia Dill, and moved to support King to prevent a GOP victory.
Two other GOP-held seats that seemed safe in the spring, in Indiana and Arizona, are now very competitive. The GOP nominees — Richard Mourdock in Indiana (who took down longtime Senator Richard Lugar in a bitter primary battle) and Jeff Flake in Arizona — are each very narrowly ahead. Mourdock appears slightly more at risk running against Congressman Joe Donnelly, as many former Lugar backers have refused to move to Mourdock.
In Arizona, the Democrats nominated Richard Carmona, a Puerto Rican, to run in a 30% Latino state. As a former surgeon general in the Bush White House, he has crossover appeal running against Flake, a staunch conservative on the budget. Big money is pouring into both races from each party’s Senate campaign committee and outside groups. Mitt Romney may win each state by 10 or more points, which may be the best thing going for both Mourdock and Flake, though so far the Romney coattails are not helping much.
In the two states where the GOP expected a challenge, Heller is doing better in Nevada (a few points up on Congresswoman Shelley Berkley) than Scott Brown is doing in Massachusetts (a few points down to Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren). Brown’s biggest problem is that most Massachusetts voters want the Democrats to retain control of the Senate, though voters seem to like Brown much better than Warren, a candidate tarnished by lies about her alleged Native American ancestry (“Fauxcahontas,” as Warren was named by Mark Steyn).
The GOP will almost certainly win the Nebraska seat now held by retiring Democrat Ben Nelson. Deb Fischer is well ahead of Bob Kerrey, the former senator and governor. Two other seats that seemed like easy pickups for the Republicans a few months back are now more problematic. Republican Congressman Rick Berg is only slightly ahead in Republican-leaning North Dakota in an open-seat race against Heidi Heitkamp. In Missouri, Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill appeared to be the most vulnerable Democrat running for re-election this cycle until an anti-abortion crusader, Congressman Todd Akin, won a three-way GOP primary.
Within days of his primary victory, Akin put his foot deep into his mouth with inane comments about forcible rape and how women’s bodies respond to rape. After McCaskill took a solid lead, the national Republican Party tried to convince Akin to drop out so that a candidate who would have a much better chance of winning could be selected to replace him and pick up the seat. Akin, bolstered by Mike Huckabee and other social conservatives, decided to stay in the race. At the moment, Akin is trailing by several points and is being badly outspent. There is a chance Akin can win if Romney wins big in Missouri and if some voters are lying to pollsters, perhaps too embarrassed to admit they are for Akin.
The GOP has a decent shot at picking up the Montana seat held by Jon Tester. Congressman Denny Rehberg has a small lead in a state where Romney is doing very well. Two other open-seat races that looked like tossups a few months back are now leaning to the Democrats. The biggest surprise is in Wisconsin , where a left-wing congresswoman, Tammy Baldwin, has opened up a lead over former Governor Tommy Thompson. So, too, in Virginia, former Governor Tim Kaine is running a few points ahead of former Republican Senator and Governor George Allen. For some former supporters, both Thompson and Allen seem to have passed their sell-by date.
The GOP came up with good candidates in two heavily Democratic states — Heather Wilson in New Mexico and Governor Linda Lingle in Hawaii — but both are well behind (10 points or more) their Democratic opponents in open-seat races. Florida seemed a good pickup opportunity, but Republican Congressman Connie Mack has been behind Senator Bill Nelson for months. Mitt Romney has opened up a lead in Florida and could give a bit of a boost to Mack down the stretch, but Mack still trails Nelson by high single digits.
In three other races, GOP contenders are making a spirited fight and one might spring an upset. State Treasurer Josh Mandel is a few points behind Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, but the gap has narrowed recently as Romney has gained in the state after the debate. In neighboring Pennsylvania, Democrat Bob Casey has a shrinking lead over challenger Tom Smith in a race that few thought would be competitive a few months back. Finally in Connecticut, Democrat Congressman Chris Smith has opened up a small lead over Republican Linda McMahon, the World Wrestling Federation executive, in a state where Barack Obama is underperforming this year, winning by a much smaller margin than in 2008.
The best bet is that the GOP will wind up with 48 seats, picking up Nebraska, North Dakota, and Montana, and losing Maine and Massachusetts. This assumes Republicans hold Nevada, Indiana, and Arizona — all a bit shaky at the moment. The GOP could do better than 48, and the best chance for that is for Scott Brown to hold onto his seat in Massachusetts. Additional gains could come from Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, and Connecticut — all states where the Democrat is now ahead. The GOP range at the end of the day could be 43 to 54, but more likely 46 to 51 . The possibility that the GOP could lose seats this cycle did not seem likely a few months back, but now it is as likely as getting a majority.
Akin doesn’t even seem to be campaigning. Here in the rural outskirts of Missouri, I see McCaskil signs but no Akin signs.
I see plenty of Akin signs in KC. I know because one of them is in my yard. I keep wanting to attach an ABC sign to it, but haven’t so far. Conversely, I haven’t seen more than one McCaskill sign, and it’s a big one on a roadside hill. It occurs to me that the crazy Dem house down the road that has the full slate of Dem signs, including Obama/Biden, doesn’t even have a Claire sign.
You know, the same polls that are weirdly weighted and vastly over sample democrats are doing the same thing in the senate races.
This. Anybody within 3 wins is my rule.
The Left has shifted gears. The AP is now running articles about “ticket-splitting”. The only reason is to avoid the coat tail effect. You can always trust the MSM to prepare the battleground for any eventuality.
Heather Wilson is a “good candidate”? What a laugh. She is a dud. Are you even remotely familiar with her record? The GOP will relinquish this seat to a far leftist because the Party aristocracy pressured John Sanchez (a tea party favorite) to drop out of the race. The Party will pay a price, deservedly so.
The Stupid Party marches on. Under the leadership of Boner, McQueeg and Gramnesty ( most don’t even know who McConnel is ) this bunch of elitist DC old farts are to ‘leaders’ as Pelosi is to womanhood. A democratic republic is as strong and healthy as its populace. The Left dominates the zeitgeist of our age. Only a world shattering conflagration could possibly ‘reset’ this nations all pervading ennui. Romney/Ryan could possible slow our descent but not by much.
I will gladly take your “not much”. It beats the hell out of the alternative. ABO2012
Never forget the enthusiastic GOP complicity in our steep national decline. So don’t put too much faith in Mittens. “Democrats drink human blood, and Republicans wipe their lips.”
The selection of Paul Ryan did not cost the presidency but will cost the Senate; the squishy moderate undecideds fear Romney less as they are coming to relaize the shortcomings of the One. However, they will also not want Ryan as the 51st senator.
The refusal of Akin to step aside, and let another Republican run against McCaskill, is the most damaging blow to the GOP Senate prospects.
As opposed to what’s-his-bucket, Connie Mack, down in Florida who can’t seem to get any traction even with full backing?
I thought I read in late August where the GOP candidate in Pennsylvania, Tom Smith, made an Akin-like comment that got quoted in the media there.
Connie Mack is married to my congresswoman, Mary Bono Mack, in Palm Springs, CA. She’s running for re-election against a radical left-winger, Raul Ruiz, who has been given (last I heard, so it may be more) $285,000 from Pelosi’s people for attack ads against Mary. It’s starting to look like we may lose to this jerk. While at Harvard Medical School, as an affirmative action student I’m sure,) he was arrested for participating in a protest against–get this–Thanksgiving! He was calling for Plymouth Rock to be smashed. This is the type of person we’re up against all over the country.
If you listened daily to Missouri radio, as I do, you would not say it. The stupid national Republicans (whom I usually respect) hurt him financially. If he loses, it will be their fault.
I have trouble understanding why the “squishy moderate undecideds” gave true conservatives Rubio, and Johnson (in WISCONSIN!) double-didget margins in their 2010 senate races.
Actually, I don’t have any trouble at all understanding it. Conservative candidates rarely lose on the battlefield of ideas. One of the surest ways to defeat them, however, is to listen to the Carl Roves of the world. In 2010, Rove campaigned against O’Donnell and Angle as hard as Special Ed Schultz did. The “witch,” O’Donnell, lost Independents 48-45 (the “popular” establishment incumbent Castle, who could have easily swayed the election to O’Donnell, selfishly refused to endorse her after his primary defeat) and extremist Angle WON Independents in Nevada against Dingy Harry. If Akin loses, you can chalk it up as Rove’s third lost senate seat in two elections. As I’ve said many times here, if Progressives weren’t so damn stupid, they’d be erecting statues to Rove rather than vilifying him.
Akin has been a good congressman, but I do wish he had stepped aside — what he said was indefensibly stupid. Every time a lib speaks, however, he/she spews nonstop indefensible stupidity. Clair Bear tells us poor dumb Missouri farmers we’re just too simple minded to understand the glory of Obamacare. Really?
There’s stupidity that responds to education, and then there’s Progressivism and Claire Bear. Anyone who believes Akin’s moment of stupidity trumps Claire Bear’s legacy of irredeemable stupidity, is cutting off their nose to spite their face.
Akin update, for what it’s worth.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/15/an-akin-comeback/
To belabor the obvious: If the GOP does not have control of both houses of the federal legislature and the White House there will be no repeal of Obamacare, no spending cuts, no meaningful tax reform, no meaningful entitlement reform and little or no chance of putting a sane jurist on the Supreme Court. In other words, loss of control of any of these means nothing much is likely change in any significant way. At best we will get gridlock and the trajectory of the nation will remain unchanged.
Even if we do win the Senate, they’ll just filibuster. I ownder what would happen if Romney canceled all of the exemptions.
Obamacare passsed by Reconciliation rules, therefore it can be repealed under the same rule. Therefore, no filibuster. We only need 50 seats (VP tie breaks) to be rid of Obamacare.
Dodd/Frank, on the other hand, will be harder…
For taking a stand for righteousness (beyond his questionable comment), Akin will win Missouri. Let the rationalists, from Krugman to Rove, be confounded. Happily awaiting religious nut accusation replies!
I am not religious but I may be a nut. Akin to me shows the kind of rigid thinking that we must shed from our party if we are to ever get control of our nation’s future. His statements about rape and birth are so stupid that there is no rational explanation for them. To even harbor such a thought process scares me. He cannot use his avid pro-life position as a shield against stupidity nor should we look at supporting him to keep McCaskill out of office. Do I hope he wins? In my deepest competitive heart of hearts I do but my conscience mind abhors it.
My advice: go with your heart, not with your rigid thinking.
We have plenty of finger in the air squishes with no principles and values(rigid thinking)…which is why we are facing national economic and cultural oblivion.
Sorry, we need conservatives with backbone and the courage of their convictions, not more Arlen Spectres and Lindsey Grahams.
His main argument was that ther baby is a victim and should not be punished. What is irrational about that?
Then I guess the Gospel of Jesus Christ scares you, and for that, there is no cure but to get over yourself.
Gee, what a surprise that Akin is behind in the polls after morons like Karl Rove and Sean Hannity spent a week trashing him for one statement and then the RNC dropped all support of his candidacy. The RNC would gladly support Olympia Snowe or Arlen Specter after a career of stupid comments and liberal positions. If the Republicans don’t gain the Senate it will be because of the RNC and Republican elite not supporting strong conservatives. That is also what happened in the Harry Reid race last go around when the RNC refused to get behind Sharron Angle. The RNC fights conservatives (see the Ted Cruz story) and then wonders why it gets bad results. When Karl Rove and John Cornyn are discarded, we will have better results.
The author of this article is biased out of extreme ignorance of the Missouri political environment. Akin will win easily against McCaskill. Missourians do not follow the advice of the elitists in the GOP and we certainly aren’t stupid enough to have outsider so-called conservatives telling us how someone who has been a steadfast conservative representative is in their eyes a right wing nut job.
The Republican machine in DC threw their weight behind Thompson, a member of their club, in WI. He hasn’t lived in Wisconsin since W tapped him for the cabinet and he caught Potomac Fever. He made himself an outsider in the state he carried for an unprecedented four terms as governor. He squeaked by in a four-way primary, thanks to a lot of outside money. Baldwin has labeled him an influence-peddler, and it’s sticking. Now he’s seen by younger voters as an old blowhard, stale, a fossil. He’s toast. Thanks, DC.
Sounds a lot like Dick Lugar, another favorite of the Eastern Establishment Republican Ruling Class. It’s going to take more that one election to get rid of all the old blowhard, stale, fossilized RINOs clinging to their seats at the Washington trough. But if we can significantly change the makeup of the House, Senate, and White House, some of them may elect to leave office to grab a cushy lobbying job while they still can. In any event, we have to keep on working at the grassroots level right up to the election; we can’t waste time reading articles about how “chances dim for a Senate takeover”! Don’t let “friendly fire” from the rear take your eye off the prize! A BIG win is our best chance for new Senators, and a positive attitude is our best chance for a BIG win!!
How could ObamaTax be repealed with shy a 51 majority republican senate?
Two words: Budget Reconciliation. No filibustering allowed.
It’s a shame the RNC could not spring for a few bucks in Maryland. Cardin should be low hanging fruit if they did a few ad buys about the absent senater. As it is Bongino will probably lose big.
Is it possible that if republicans are shy of holding the senate that some democrats would vote to repeal ObamaTax?
Are their any senate democrats that have expressed a want to repeal?
I disagree. As Romney rises, he will have coat tails. In addition, there are other legal challenges to Obamacare which may make it come to an end. Skip the first few paragraphs to get to Obamacare. http://www.westernjournalism.com/supreme-court-shocks-life-into-obamacare-challenge
Without at least 50 senators it may be impossible to get a full repeal of Obamacare. But Obamacare’s “strength” may turn out to be its greatest weakness. Obamacare cedes almost complete control of the decision making process to a bunch of unelected “czars” and other executive appointees. These people have an insane amount of power and because they’re unaccountable to the electorate and never mentioned in the press Obama could appoint open communists. Romney can just appoint people who will refuse to implement, or actively undermine, the law. It won’t get rid of it, but may effectively stop it for 4 years.
Another thing Romney could do would be to take a page out of Obama’s book and just grant every American an exemption from Obamacare by executive order. I think that unlike Obama Romney may actually have too much integrity and belief in our system of government to do that though.
The third option would be to repeal parts of it slowly by attaching them to other bills.
And lets not forget that Romney can just refuse to spend any money to implement most features of the law. He could invite outside groups to file suits against the law and refuse to defend it in court. He could pardon anybody charged with violating Obamacare. There are lots of ways around congress, as Obama’s presidency should show you. Electing Romney won’t rid us of the cancer that is Obamacare overnight, but it may slow its spread.
Obama’s geatest victory in the courts (via Justice Roberts) could be ObamaCare’s greatest threat. Tax bills cannot be fillibustered. Mitt and the GOP can simple destroy ObamaCare via the purse.
What is disappointing is how weak the GOP nationally. I don’t know if it is the RNC or weak local candidate. But with 23 Dem Seats at risk during a rotten economy, one would think that the GOP could get at least a net pick-up of 5 seats.
Forgot to add: Are any of those Democrat Senators “squishy”?
Just because not a single republican voted to pass Obamacare doesn’t mean we can’t get a couple Dems to side with us in Repealing it. If Romney wins by enough we may get one to pull an Arlen Specter (may he burn in hell) and switch over to the winning side. Senators are notoriously susceptible to the lure of pork and may be bought off. Finally voters HATE Obamacare and there are Dem senators from conservative districts who may boost their approval back home by voting against the party on this particular issue. We need to consider this, are there any DINOS we can use? It would be the height of irony if we had 49 seats in the senate and got one dem to side with us. Imagine the howls of progressive rage.
Surely there are one or two Democrat senators out there that are actually repulsed at the radical direction they have seen their party go. Should this election show the momentum to the right that the 1994 election demonstrated possibly, just possibly, we may see a defection or two. It happened then and hopefully it will now. Of course, the biggest limitation on this possibility would be that the Repub leadership is to timid and stupid to encourage it. Remember Bob Dole saying “we’re taking applications” after Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched? One can hope.
Yes, maybe Elizabeth Nighhorse Warren will switch parties.
Murdock as of today is 5 points ahead of Donnelly. Mitt will probably carry Indiana by 12+ points. In that case, the chances of Donnelly winning are slim to none. Hoosiers do not normally split their ticket and Murdock is reminding voters that without Donnelly vote there would be no ObamaCare. It think it is safe to say Murdock will win.
I find the regurgitation of Jeff Flake facing a ‘surge’ via Carmona beyond annoying. One poll made of pixie dust and trash and Arizona is ‘in play’?
To Flakes credit he has run as if he is behind – the smart and right way to run -but that doesn’t change the fact that Carmona is a paper tiger tied to the most unpopular president Arizona as endured since Santa Anna!
The Behavioral &^%$-HOOY poll that stated this nonsense has been diced and sliced for what it is – a the kind of magical realism that makes reading Gabriel Garcia Marquez both enriching and satisfying.
It’s a presumption, wraped in a riddle, cultivating an enigma; That 90+ of a latino vote that HAS NEVER APPROACHED 12%
[sorry - mis-hit typo intterrupt]
…that Latino vote now will equal the presumed 30% of the population that nobody really believes they actually represent…!!!
Not only that, the expressed move to ‘moderation’ in this state has yet to materialize.
There are not reports of huge crowds rallying to Mr Carmona, no tell-tale signs of distress and panic in the Flake camp. Nothing. That is nothing besides the reliable left-leaning media in Arizona promoting something neither Arizonians want nor need.
Flake will easily beat the Obama courted former S.General by 10 points – and I dare say may even take him in Tucson as well – Where Mr Carmona is hardly as popular as is in Washington with Democrats.
Calling this race close is worse than pundit malpractices – it’s criminal.