GOP on Track to Win the Senate
In 2009, the political talk was all about how the GOP was going to make major gains in the House and Senate, making it even more difficult for President Obama to pursue his agenda. The number of competitive seats just didn’t leave much room for talk of a Senate takeover. That has changed. The political landscape since 2006 has been turned upside down and the GOP is certain to make any Democratic majority razor-thin, and if current polls hold, they will take the Senate — possibly with a seat or two extra.
The Democrats currently hold 57 seats in the Senate and two independents caucus with them, giving them a 59-seat majority. The Republicans obviously hold the remaining 41 seats, requiring a pickup of 10 seats to win a majority. A 50-50 split is a distinct possibility, but since Vice President Biden casts the tie-breaking vote, that is still a majority for the Democrats. If that scenario unfolds, Lieberman holds the key and will likely caucus with the Republicans to give them a majority.
Right now, it is safe to say that the GOP will pick up six seats based on the Real Clear Politics poll averages and political trends. In Nevada, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is behind his GOP challengers by nearly nine points. In Delaware, Beau Biden’s decision not to run gives Rep. Mike Castle a strong lead. In North Dakota, Governor John Hoeven is defeating his rivals by between 24 and 36 points. In Arkansas, Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln is behind by as much as 19 points. And in Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet trails Jane Norton by 14 points and Ken Buck by four points. Evan Bayh’s decision not to seek reelection in Indiana has resulted in most political commentators rating that seat as a likely Republican pickup as well.
Based on those numbers, the GOP is very likely to have at least 47 seats. Only three of the remaining races need to be won, as independent Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans if a 50-50 split is established. It is hard to see Lieberman staying loyal to the party that kicked him out and to the president that he crossed party lines to oppose. There are six races remaining from which those three pickups can come.
In Illinois, Rep. Mark Kirk is currently ahead by an average of six points. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey is ahead by an average of 7.6 points over Arlen Specter and an average of 11.6 points over Joe Sestak. That means that if the Republicans win the races where their declared candidates are currently ahead, they are at 49 seats.
In the next 8 months a lot can go wrong for the Democrats. Personally I think it will be 1894 all over again. On the heels of two Democratic landslides in 1890 and 1892, they were all but wiped out in ’94. But if each of the 18 Democratic Senate seats went to the GOP, there would still be able to filibuster (not to mention veto) any GOP agenda. As for Albert Gore’s running mate, Joseph Lieberman’s support of Obamacare will disqualify him from joining the GOP caucus, period.
“The only conceivable scenario is a massive economic boost”
There is no such thing realistically as an economic boom solving our debt crisis. The typical purple and red state voter is well aware of this harsh fact. We are financially bankrupt as a nation. Any uptick in the economy will be similar to a guy in bankruptcy proceedings who finds a better job. The judge allows him to keep a little bit more of the earnings—while deciding how best to resolve the claims of the many creditors. Our debtor cannot in the meantime sell the family home, purchase a new car, or invest in a new business. There is also nothing to leave the children and grandchildren other than the family’s remaining financial obligations.
Around and around and around it goes, just like a circus Merry-Go-Round..
Which one of the up and down, shiny white horses laughing horses will I get to sit on this time?
Ah-hah.. here we go, while the music plays louder and louder and the mad hatter makes sure you paid for your ticket and the pretty little monkey spins the handle on his grinder.. around and around and around we go…
So it is… life in the big city.. Washington, DC and the best clowns money can buy to entertain us..
Sorry, I almost forgot.
It’s almost time to draw the winning ticket for who gets to sit where in the Senate during the next parade..
Did I read that right about George Pataki in New York saying he was not making moves to run for the U.S. Senate, but rather was interested in running for President in 2012!
George, if you are not going to step up and put yourself on the line to help the Republican Party win in New York and take back the U.S. Senate, then why should the Republican Party hand you the 2012 Presidential nomination?
Both Rudi Guiliani and George Pataki should realize that on the sidelines, they are just former office holders in New York, and as such, they should not consider themselves in a good position to run for President.
A neocomrade who has heard of both Sulla Felix and Grover Felix! What next?
As regards the main show, Dr. Bones, one’s feelings are naturally mixed: a majority in the Other Chamber for militant extremism would let the impeachsters out of their cage again, and that would certainly be great fun to watch, but . . . .
Healthy days.
This is excellent news but Republicans must not get overconfident. Democrats still hold power, they don’t hesitate to use if for political advantage, and they have a lot of money from labor unions and fatcat contributors like George Soros.
The economy could very well get better in the short run. Democrats’ massive deficit spending is bound to prop it up some, anyone who has gone on a credit card binge knows that you can live very well on borrowed money for a short while. But once the credit cards are maxed out and the bills start coming due that is when the bottom falls out. The big question is whether the day of reckoning comes before November, or after. If it comes before Democrats are toast.
The only way Lieberman will ever caucus with republicans is if they make a public statement saying, “We’re democrats.”
Just because Lieberman isn’t insane and totalitarian like Sherrod Brown or Barbara Boxer he is not, therefore, just like us. He is an archetypal northeast Jewish liberal intellectual elitist,without the malevolence, and it’s never going to change.
Shhh!!! This is exactly the wrong approach! Let the Democrats think they have the advantage, and they’ll get comfortable and lazy. Then in November, we surprise ‘em by voting their asses out of office. Show them their peril now and they might have time to turn it around.
(Of course, I’m not above voting out every incumbent regardless of party, just to show the whole rancid gang that WE are in charge here.)
A lot can happen over the next 9 months. Well, 8 1/2. I’m looking for the 5 year ARM’s coming up in April and May to give the US Economy that mercy shot in the nape of the neck. Then inflation should kick in during the summer. Beating the corpse, so to speak.
On the other hand, the Usurper has a nice little war available in Iran whenever he wants it. That would drive the rabid moonbats right over the edge, but ensure him support from the rest of America. It would also perk up the economy. Draft a bunch of people and send the rest to the factories to build weapons and everyone will to busy to whine about the economy. Hey, it worked for FDR.
There are lots of problems with the math. It depends on people who have not declared to run. It would be nice if all these people did. This might give the republicans enough votes to overcome the RINO’s in the senate.
Reconciliation = Republican takeover
If the democrats use the nuclear option, the results could be even more in favor of the Republicans.
This year is a race: Chavez-style regime building on one side, Freedom-fighters on the other.
Godspeed America !
Godspeed Freedom !
In Washington, Dino only lost the governorship in 04 due to voter fraud (yes, there are indicments against acorn workers – seems some were even convicted of fraud. Of course, they don’t actually change the results to reflect teh fraud.) and Gregoire repeatedly insistend on recounts, until after the FOURTH, she came out ahead. (oh, gee, look at the ballots found in King County that haven’t been counted yet . . .)
Many independent WA residents are becoming regretful she-who-must-raise-taxes-and-screw-the-people has the seat, and not him. If that means giving the Senate seat to him, . . hasta la vista Patty!
I will add, it’s unfortunate Maria Cantwell is not up for re-election this year. She is *nuts*. A friend was back there for a number of meetings, and watched her in one, and her behavior was erractic, and incoherent. Looked liked she really needed to be on meds.
9. Except Obama has no clue how to be in command. Unless he can curtail his ego enough to give General Petreus carte blanch, war with Iran is a liability for Obama, not an asset.
GOP on Track to Win the Senate
From your lips to God’s ears!!!
1994 all over again in the Congress would be nice, but 1776 all over again would be better.
I hope this is true although from my state we already have two Republicans, but there are about five congressional seats that look interesting. I would love to see Pelosi replaced or brought up in an investigation if she somehow remain in her office (not as Speaker) as a normal congressman (congresswoman)and then impeachment proceeding are brought against the president.
I know it sounds optimistic, but it could come true!
To I Callahan: Given the overall behavior of the GOP the past decade or so, it’s much more likely that the devil is keeping his fingers crossed…..
Even if it looks like easy street for the republicans, and as much as I detest the democrats….I just dont trust the republicans.
Have they learned their lesson?
Will they continue to spend like coked up sorority girls?
Will they absolutely ignore their base while robbing the taxpayers?
Will they ignore illegal immigration?
Will they ignore the decline in america’s manufacturing base?
Will they abandon manned space flight and the very idea of american greatness?
or
Will they balance the budget?
Cap and cut back entitlements?
Overturn any and all Obamacare nonsense?
Build the F-22 and return America to the moon?
Whose side are they on? I’m just not convinced that they are on MY side.
Economy won’t recover until November – given that Obama did everything to screw it up. The only real chance for DNC to keep the power would be either a large terrorist attack or some military action. I would not be surprised if Obama either attacks Iran or gives green light to Israel to do so.
Of course, there is a big chance that Obama is nuts, and he does not see what is happening.
The one thing that I can’t stand about Democrats, so by all means keep doing it, is their insistence that conservatives and tea party-ers are being too hypersensitive toward the budget and the deficit. Them claiming that we are premature in our concern is like arguing that a drunk doesn’t have a problem until his liver fails.
It is a good and healthy thing to panic in advance.
Personally I think it will be 1894 all over again.
So, what happened in 1894? The first steam-powered telephone?
Regards,
–Alexander Graham Kowalski, the world’s first telephone Pole
Personally I think it will be 1894 all over again
So, what happened in 1894? The first steam-powered telephone?
–Alexander Graham Kowalski, world’s first telephone Pole
This is really good news – and the TEA Party movement deserves credit for steering Republican leaders back to the base.
There is still a lot of time for things to go wrong for either side.
Barako under estimates the American people. But no wonder,he isn’t a true American and couldn’t think like us even if he wanted to.
\I am totally disgusted with elected officials in general.
The Charlie Wrngle deal totally blows me away. The “top” democrat still stands behind him, toally disgusting!!!
We need people of a higher caliber, and Charlie and his ilk (the “top” democrat) should be kicked to the curb! I simply do not understand why this man is still in the position he is in, except corruption knows no bounds!!
We need to make a concerted effort to get out and vote for the right people in 2010 and lay groundwork for 2012…the problem seems to be determining who is the “right” person??
Re’#21: A terrorist attack or military action involving the U.S. would sink Obama-Banana faster than the Titanic. Rally around this fascist pig? Hah.
Utterly ignorant, incompetent, and indecisive, he can’t tell his friends from his enemies, but he sure does hate the American people. When this becomes obvious even to his idiotic supporters, a movement will arise to remove the twerp in the interest of national self-preservation. So long as all he has to do is lie in front of a camera the media can cover for him, but when lead starts to fly it’s over for this pathological scum-bag.
There is no possibility of significant improvement in our economy. What little improvement that has occurred is in spite of the Bolsheviks efforts not because of them. Studying rat sex, pot smoking with malt liquor or ebonics, whatever the scientific value these studies do or do not have, in no way stimulates job growth. The Democrats think the economy is a pie, they know how they want to cut it up but have no clue how it got there or how it grows. Green union jobs is NOT an economic policy, or even an energy policy.
I doubt that the pundits or politicos truly grasp the mood of the people. I believe that either the Republicans don’t do as well as it appears they should or the Democrats suffer epic losses as in some preposterous number of House seats like over a 100.
Lots of maybe’s here. As the picture becomes ever ore rosey, then we shall see some of the potentials throw their hats into the ring. For some, it is simply too early, but eventually, the will be prevailed upon. The Pubs shall take back both Chambers, bet on it.
Have the Pubs learned their lesson? Somewhat. It is slowly sinking in. After ’94, they did toe the line for a few years. However, bad habits are hard to break, as well as bad thinking patterns. Many are just addicts, and can’t break the cycle. Others go whichever way the wind blows. The trick is to keep the wind blowing strongly afterwards. Get riled, and stay riled. It’s not up to them. It’s up to us.
The Idealogue-in-Chief caused the demise of the ultra-leftwing and Progressive agenda. Middle America is sick and tired of the self-centered, arrogant, elitist who tried to fool everyone by manufacturing a healthcare crisis and by pretending to listen to other viewpoints during his so-called “bi-partisan” LECTURE summit which he only attended so he can hear himself talk and disrespect individuals who have served their country well and with honor while he was still in the streets of Chicago’s Southside organizing the community with his client, ACORN, and hanging out with underground Weather people and his favorite pastor of 20 years.
Tulsa Jack:
Carter’s popularity went up for some time during the embassy crisis…
Since neither party will slam the door on immigration, legal and illegal, we are doomed. And by doomed I don’t mean that America will cease to be a significant nation. Only that when you purposely import a massive inferior population you end up with a mediocre at best nation. And the Republicans are no more inclined than the Democrats to do a single thing about it. Yes yes I’m a racist blah blah blah….
As far as I am concerned, to depend on a Joe Lieberman to put us over the top for majority control in the Senate might be a wish too far. But then again, he has shown that he is a whore for whoever is in the majority. Still though, his support for Obama’s healthcare takeover might make it difficult for Republicans to allow him in. However, if the choice is Dem control, or their controlling the Senate chamber, the Republicans will let him caucus. After all, isn’t it all about power, no matter which side has the chance to own the keys? Another question is, how much will the current Republican leadership give up as far as committee leadership is concerned and whether the Republican(s) who will have to step aside for Lieberman will do so? Hopefully, we will win enough Senate races this fall where these questions will be moot. Anyways, it will be an interesting election year.
The essential dynamics, greed, and corruption in Washington DC will not change under either party. Look at recent history.
If you want to see a shakeup to the status quo then VOTE OUT EVERY INCUMBENT, EVERY TIME. Otherwise we are just saying that one selfserving crook is better than another and that voters are just as dumb as ever – which is most likiely the case.
Page one of this post was a lot easier on the eyes – and the imagination. Seven senate races are believable – but fifty plus house races? Besides the obvious caveat that nine months is an eternity – the resurrection, as already duly noted, is mostly the result of the hard vere left under Pelosi (a capable opponent) & Reid (a useful idiot) & Obama (an incompetent novice).
As I recall 2006 the Democrats (Under Rahm & Dean) executed a very good electoral ’50 state’ strategy; they were well funded, they had an energized base & a massive grass roots (Acorn led) membership, and they recruited well – all concieved and put in motion shortly after Dean faded with his famous YAHOO meltdown. Even with all this – they took the senate on a run in the final weeks of the cycle that depended on George Allens improbable melt down plus the various scandals that started with Jack Ryan & ended with Mark Foley.
Just how short the Dems were in electing a governing coilition has proven true with their floundering uner Obama in year one.
A year ago today it was very depressing to be a conservative. It’s intoxicating to envision the real possibility that we can take back BOTH houses and ensure that Obama is a 1 term fright night on Penn ave. But.
I remain a skeptic on the possibility – and bullish on retaking the Senate first – which should be the priority. The key is not falling into the trap that power hungry Dems did after ’04. Recruiting quality candidates to run shouldn’t mean just finding warm bodies capable of parcing fractional demographics – just red enough to peal a district.
It should depend on recruiting conservatives first. Electing a ready made governing coilition is no easy task. Better to bridge two cycles to form a dynamic brand to govern rather than bum rush the breach with a weak majority.
Also, there is no question that Mitch McConnell has proven a masterful parlimentarian in combating a weak majority leader in Reid. Were as Pelosi has vertually OWNED Boehner.
A Rossi win the WA would mean a voctory without a recount, considering he won the governorship twice before miracle votes appeared in the recounts and he was the loser. Wonder who Bill Gates will sponsor this time around? Both current WA senators made their fortunes working for Gates. Gates is as despicable as they come.
@34. ricpic: – Since neither party will slam the door on immigration…
Illegal immigration is another politically divisive, wedge issue distraction, like abortion and gay marriage. The fact is that it will cease to be a significant problem as soon as the State is forced to roll back the the ungodly level of wealth-redistribution-via-entitlements that we Taxpayers are all paying for.
As things stand, most immigrants come here to suckle off the American Taxpayers’ teat. Once we’ve held State and federal governments’ feet to the fire regarding the limited authority granted them in their respective Constitutions, those who immigrate here will once again do so for the same reason all immigrants have previously come here: to assimilate into the American Dream.
Those who say the Republicans, or Tea Partiers, have nothing to say,
do not like what either has to say.
Let’s keep that foremost in our heads.
Phoenix48: I would agree that a more than one cycle strategy, by electing true fiscal conservatives, would serve conservatives and the country better than just electing warm ”Rs” many of whom will undoubtedly betray us. It is more principled to be forced to compromise with your adversaries than your supposed allies. The democratic efforts to pass health care particularly in the Senate are evidence that it could also be cheaper to buy your opposition than your friends. The Democrats had the right idea on how to govern, elect an un-assailable majority and push, push, push. Their failure has been in the quality of their policies and of the members in their majority. It’s not enough for Republicans to “retake” the congress. The conservative goal must be to reverse decades of patient, slow-motion Bolshevik coup d’etat. In order to save our country the left must be crushed as a force in our political system. If the Republicans gain the majority in both houses they will be expected to produce results by the public. A bare majority unless superbly disciplined will be forced to compromise and therefore will pass more bad policy.
The description of the tactics and strategy the Social Democrats used to gain ascendancy is accurate. I’m not sure that the normal dynamics apply this political cycle. Either the progressive pundits and politicians are correct and the “Tea Parties” are just a minority of noisy malcontents or the “Tea Party” movement and others are the “visible tip of the spear” in front of a very angry groundswell of discontent. In 94 the electorate was mad at the actions of the Democrats in 06 and 08 the actions of the Republicans. Have the people become “alarmed” by the nature of what they believed was a reasonable mainstream party? The “Democratic Party” that assumed power in Washington is much more radically left than any before it. Fortunately their reach has exceeded their grasp, also fortunately they exposed their true nature, that and what appeared to be their total control has gotten the peoples attention. Whether the people have truly grasped the horrifying fate we’ve narrowly evaded remains to be seen. If we do truly understand the nature of the left, this coming November is going to be interesting.
Glenn Beck and his faithful sidekick, Mr. Chalkboard, will determine this. If he starts highlighting the records of various candidates, he’ll decide a lot of races. Forget Limbaugh and Palin. Beck has become the galvanizing force for a discontent America. He shall be the Kingmaker.
If you think his ratings are high now, wait until the election nears. I’m telling you, when he starts covering the election, he will be a ratings monster. Just a monster.
P.S. The applause his chalkboard got at CPAC was unbelievable. Honestly, people were applauding getting a civics and history lesson! Excuse me, but weren’t those always the most boring subjects in school? Hilarious! He got mad skiws, baby!
Beck is fine when he sticks to limited government, fiscal responsibility, personal freedom & responsibility. I like his messages along these lines but he just can’t stop grinding on abortion, gay rights and god/religion as the basis for politics. Republicans and conservatives under estimate the number of independents who would rather accept Obamacare and big deficits than see such moralizing turned into law.
My bold prediction, offered with humble but knowing insight:
Republicans won’t even need Joe Lieberman!
Barbara Boxer is going to LOSE in California…
And all your other scenarios will play out accordingly.
Let’s get ready to RUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMBLE!!!!!!!!!!!
Many Americans like Obama’s mellow presidential style. The country is soothingly getting out of the Bush legacy. Republicans are strident and irritant, they like to govern through fear and neurosis. Obama has a calming effect and things are getting done at a human pace.
45. What has Obama actually accomplished? We clearly aren’t living on the same planet.
43. Good riddance. If you love sin more than liberty, you will get the tyranny you richly deserve. We ask neither your counsel, nor your arms, nor even your votes and money. May it be forgotten that cowards like you were ever our countrymen. For if the Republic dies, it will be because cowards and immoral men like you chose sin and slavery over your children’s freedom. We know who the enemy is, and the enemy will fail unless useful idiots like you choose to support them over liberty.
39. Abortion is no more a distraction than slavery. We can never balance the budget and pay down the debt so long as we continue slaughtering a large portion of the next generation. Who will pay this debt? Furthermore, what would it profit us to balance the budget and pay down our debt, only to have the country collapse anyway because we no longer value life and liberty.
@46. myth buster: – Abortion is no more a distraction than slavery. We can never balance the budget and pay down the debt so long as we continue slaughtering a large portion of the next generation. Who will pay this debt?
Aside from drawing a ridiculous moral equivalence, you miss the point, mb, which is that the Constitution does not speak to the issue of abortion. That is an issue that is only correctly settled through legislation, which the left refuses to pursue (because they know it’s a loser). Rather, they seek to find protection for abortion in the Constitution and, absent enough sane Justices, have done so. That’s why the distraction of preventing an overturn of Roe v. Wade supersedes so many other issues when it comes to confirming judges, justices and candidates.
As for the rest, you have it exactly backward. A strong society with a strong economy and strong family cohesion does not slaughter the unborn at the rates we find in America today. Get the government out of the business of subsidizing single-parent households and you’ll see how quick the abortion issue evaporates.
No I don’t have it backwards. Moral decay precedes economic decay. True, subsidizing immoral behavior reinforces this problem, but it is sexual immorality and murder which cause economic collapse, not the other way around. Regarding the Constitution, I recall that slavery was originally protected by the Constitution. We passed an Amendment to ban the practice, except as a punishment for a crime for which someone has been duly convicted. We can do the same for abortion. As I said, anything and everything can be made into a federal issue, provided that it is addressed by means of Constitutional Amendment.
And why was that moral equivalence ridiculous? If anything, it’s ridiculous only because slavery at least kept its victims alive, and no sane master would treat his slaves any worse than he’d treat his horses. Abortion, meanwhile, kills by design, and treats the unborn as though it were a tumor or a worm. Abortion is a greater assault on human rights and human dignity than chattel slavery ever was, and that’s saying something.