Good News From WikiLeaks: Sky is Falling in Iran, North Korea
The release of confidential diplomatic cables by WikiLeaks (and the pending release of thousands more) has undoubtedly done damage to our ability to win the trust of informants, foreign officials, and intelligence services. There is ample reason to be angry over this scandal, but there is also reason to be encouraged. The content of the documents shows the roof is collapsing on the Iranian and North Korean regimes and that a coalition has formed to support regime change for both.
The begging among the Arabs for a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been widely covered, but their appetite to go even further and support regime change has not been. The documents reveal that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has told the U.S. to “cut off the head of the snake,” a statement more indicative of regime change than a limited military strike. The prime minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, is recorded as saying in August 2006: “Iraq was unnecessary. Iran is necessary.” Hariri said this even though he has been forced into publicly kissing the feet of Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran.
The cables also show optimism about the prospects for a policy of regime change. The chief of Kuwait’s military intelligence comments on the instability in Iran, and says that an event like the arrest of opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi could spark an uprising that ends the regime. President Aliyev of Azerbaijan is documented as having “viewed the situation as very tense within Iran and believed it could erupt at any time.”
The U.S. is also pressured by Meir Dagan, the director of Israel’s legendary Mossad intelligence service, to make moves to support regime change by supporting minorities like the Azeris, Baluchis, and Kurds, as well as the student democracy movement. Dagan is recorded as being “sure” that the regime could be toppled with U.S. support. That comes from a cable in August 2007, well before the uprising in the summer of 2009 following Ahmadinejad’s so-called “re-election.” Dagan’s confidence in fomenting regime change has surely been strengthened since then.
A cable from June 2009 reports that several Iranian contacts say that there is a “surge in Baluchi violence in the border area” so severe that the government may be losing control of the region. Violent clashes by Baluchis and other minorities have grown markedly since then. The Obama administration has put distance between the U.S. and the Baluchi militants, condemning their attacks and listing the Jundullah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, as was previously done to the Free Life Party of Kurdistan.
Another document shows that a rare opportunity to undermine the regime will come soon. A source was told by former President Rafsanjani in 2009 that Ayatollah Khamenei was in the last stages of his life and could die from cancer within months. Once the supreme leader dies, the regime will face its biggest fracture since 1979 as the battle over his successor ensues.
Altogether, the cables give good reason to believe that Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, and Lebanon would all support military action and even a strategy of regime change towards Iran. Yemen, Oman, Algeria, Morocco, and other countries can also be expected to quietly back it. Unlike the toppling of Saddam Hussein, an effort to support the democratic opposition in Iran would actually bring together an impressive international alliance with a strong Muslim component.
Europe can also be counted on to support such a strategy. A cable from September 2009 records a French diplomat as saying: “The current Iranian regime is effectively a fascist state and the time has come to decide on next steps.” European leaders have been courageous in vocally supporting the Iranian people and lambasting the nature and legitimacy of the regime. For example, on November 25 the European Union passed a resolution calling on the U.S. to remove the Mujahideen-e-Khalq from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
The cables also report on the Iranians’ failures in Iraq. The regime undoubtedly still commands influence, but a December 14, 2009, cable reports how the religious Iraqi city of Najaf is increasingly agitated by Iranian influence. Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani’s staunch opposition to the Iranian regime’s theology is exemplified in a report saying that he has banned Iranians altogether from joining Najaf’s seminaries to prevent Revolutionary Guard agents from coming in.
Mr. Mauro is a lightweight.I guess he comes cheap.
Where’s the moderator?…
Re: PJM commenting guideline #3…Disagree, but avoid ad hominem attacks…
Re: “Mr. Mauro is a lightweight. I guess he comes cheap.”…
This comment strikes me as clearly an “ad hominem” (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ad+hominem) attack, something that is clearly off-limits in this forum…
Can “Paladin” challenge the man’s premise, rationally and logically or, is “Paladin” only capable of cheap shots?…
“King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has told the U.S. to “cut off the head of the snake,” a statement more indicative of regime change than a limited military strike.”
I hope I read that correctly: that King Abdullah believes the best way to strike at Islamic fundamentalism (really, the only kind of Islam) is to cut off the head of the snake: the Saudi regime itself?
Remember, though, a tyrannical regime is most dangerous when it is dying.
“King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has told the U.S. to ‘cut off the head of the snake’”
That’s great. American boys will die, and American taxpayers will foot the bill, because this Abdullah scumbag wants to eliminate some regional competition.
America needs to stop taking sides in these petty arguments, remove itself from entangling alliances, and start engaging in free and friendly commerce with all nations. Including Iran (who poses absolutely no threat to us).
The stated goal of Iran is the world without America. If this is not a threat, then I do not know what the threat is. Iran was at war with us since the occupation of the sovereign American territory (embassy) in 1979. Using historical time line of the French Revolution, Russian Revolution, and China’s communist takover, Iran is at the most toxic stage right now. Each case was most violent and destructive in about 25 to 30 years coming to power, i.e. France – Napoleonic wars, Russia – virulent stalinism of late forties, China – greeat leap forward, clashes with Sovits, Vietnam invasion. Naive isolationism is nice in theory but like all utopias it does not meet reality test. Iranian revolution most likely will sizzle in about 30 years, but in its dying pangs can generate a lot of problems.
“The stated goal of Iran is the world without America.”
No. The goal of the ruling regime in Iran is to maintain its own power and control its own people. So once in a while they’ll make a crazy statement about imperialist western dogs in order to get some of the locals on their side. But they have no intention of following through, let alone the ability.
Remember, Iran fought Saddam’s army to a stalemate. The same army that American tanks rolled over in about 3 days. In relative terms, they haven’t advanced at all since then, so Iran poses no threat to us whatsoever.
The only way they could potentially threaten the USA would be to shut down the Persian Gulf to oil traffic. Therefore, it’s in America’s best interests to hold our nose and maintain friendly diplomatic and trade relations with Iran. The same way we hold our nose and maintain relations with the Muslim freaks who run Saudi Arabia.
No, the goal/dream and in their own words destiny of the rulers of Iran are to be those who usher in the return of the Mahdi and a world-wide caliphate. And the Koran is very plain and clear that what is necessary for that is world-wide chaos and war and they are working unswervingly toward that goal. These are religious fanatics the likes of which the western mind is unable to comprehend.; you cannot reason with them, you cannot appease them, they take human threats as challenge to their devotion, these are people who with all their being believe as Anjem Choudary proclaims, “There are many battlefields…and any man who fails to fight will face difficulty when the “angel of death” arrives and he is forced to explain to Allah why he did not raise his hand “against the oppressor” out of fear. Allah will say to him, Am I not more worthy to be feared than them?”
Yes, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is on record musing about “a world without America” – a goal he calls “attainable”.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/14/irans-world-without-america/
It may be that the “true” goal of “the ruling regime in Iran is to maintain its own power and control its own people.” But Ahmadinejad’s “stated” goal is “a world without America”.
Now if some some poor soul on here suggested that their goal was “a world without WhiteMonk” you might take that as a threat. So it is disingenuous to say that Iran is not a threat. How great a threat? Well, how real are their nukes? I don’t have the answer to that one.
Just because we can easily kick somebody’s butt doesn’t mean they’re not a threat. Complaisance can give a nuisance the idea that a more powerful opponent is soft and decadent … and vulnerable.
See, e.g., 9/11.
Very often, the language “We don’t need to” actually means “We shouldn’t,” or “Please don’t, because I want America to be a crippled giant on the verge of falling and see its opponents empowered.”
It’s often a prelude to calling America a bully or “imperialist” for ridding our environment of supposedly innocuous opponents.
See, e.g., “The Viet Cong are just freedom fighters. They’re not dedicated communists!”
And so it goes.
WHITEMONK
Islamist, imperialist, fascist Iran (read article 11 of their constitution), the sworn enemy of Israel and the US, is in the process of becoming the North Korea of the Persian Gulf/Middle East and WhiteMonk says relax, don’t worry, nuclear mullahs are nothing to fear? Does WM really believe that the hostage taking mullahs will refrain from nuclear blackmail once they get the bomb? That they’ll refrain from holding the oil rich Persian Gulf and world economy hostage to their implacable demands? Or has he bought into the propaganda that Iran’s not weaponizing its nuclear program and that its soley for conventional, peaceful energy use? Do tell us your views WM.
Click my name and read my widely posted townhall piece: Italy Gives the Boot to Islam: Will Not Recognize it as Legit Religion.
Make nice nice and sell our enemies all of the goodies they want. Reminds of Lenin’s adage about hanging the capitalists and the capitalists will sell him the rope he will use.
Cut them off and let them eat their oil.
America’s only real enemy is Mexico. They have a surplus of illiterate peasants, and they’re sending them all across the border.
Why should Iran be considered an enemy?
Because Iran considers itself to be our enemy.
Odds are, if you tell me that you are my enemy, I’m going to believe you.
Israel will take care of Iran. We must protect our nation from several million starving Mexicans overrunning our border. And by the way, they will vote, legal or not, and who do you think they will vote for?
WhiteMonk:
Lots of good thoughts on this post, but yours really struck home with me. Mexico IS one of our greatest threats and they already have an army of millions inside our borders. Their loyalty rests solely with Mexico and Reconquista. They literally have the power to turn the US into a 3rd world nation with nukes overnight.
In addition to the Mexicans, our porous borders have allowed tens of thousands of America’s most deadly enemies into the country. Iranians, Syrians, Venezuelans, Hezbollah, Hamas, and al Qaeda are all here and ready to strike. Having 5-10 million muslims residing here is just icing on the cake for countries like Iran.
Their agents of death are here, they maintain some degree of plausible deniability, and we have a cowardly beta-male who hates his country in the White House.
I’m afraid we’re going to have to handle this one ourselves, dear readers.
I wonder if Vindico has any evidence he’d care to present that illegals have EVER voted in ANY American election (beyond 2 or 3 individuals at most)?
In reply to Mike Reynolds, in Nevada and California, if you can get a drivers license, you can vote. We have a motor-voter registration law. Most illegal aliens in these States have driver’s licenses. I’m not familiar with other States voter registration laws. It’s not that great a stretch to believe that many of these same illegal aliens are using their driver’s licenses to, not only drive, but to vote. Any registrars in Nevada or California care to weigh in on this issue.
Iran poses no threat to us? You sir, are full of it. They would blow us from here to Kingdom Come given half a chance, just as they would Israel.
As for the entangling foreign alliances warned of in George Washington’s farewell speech, you are correct. We would be better off without 99% of them, however engaging in free trade with some nations, given the kind of people they are, is simply asinine.
King Abdullah, go to hell. You would like nothing better than to see us go to war with Iran. On the one hand, it would eliminate the dreaded Persians, on the other, it would further weaken the US, that staunch ally of Israel, a total win-win for you, you child molesting piece of camel shite. (Assange could have done us all a favor by exposing the multitude of sexual perversions in the Arab world, vile lot that they are.)
Julian…I hope you disappear. I will shed no tears over you. Hang yourself and spare the USG the expense of a trial.
What you say is true, however with the entanglement of the UN does us or anyone any favors amidst a stock pile of treaties of which the US has signed on to how many thru out the years ? LIke I have said in the past we should have finished the War over in Korea many years ago instead of walking away as we did with a job unfinished.
So – assuming we make it to 2012 with no mushroom clouds rising – the conservative candidate (GOP or TEA) should promise to bring regime change resolutions to the UN within his/her first month of office. Gitmo will still be in operation and available to warehouse the POWs.
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”
The problem with all these PRIVATE requests (“that the U.S. should end the Iranian government”) is that the leaders of the various countries will PUBLICLY denounce any such effort on our part. Make no mistake, the Saudis hate the current Iranian regime (and have a strong historic dislike of Persia due to the Sunni-Shia split) but they will not lift a finger to help us and in fact are likely to join with other Islamic states in a boycott/public condemnation of ANY military effort on our part vis. Iran. So, behind the scenes may countries may privately be celebrate an attack by the U.S. on Iran but they will not help because, they publicly spout this rot about how the Islamic world is a world of brotherly love and peace and happiness and its all the fault of infidel crusaders/Zionists whenever anything bad happens.
The U.S. has not attacked Iran for some very good reasons – thus far. Most importantly, an attack on Iran would most likely unify the Persian population behind the current government and result in a new lease on life for the very corrupt regime. My guess is that we are waiting for the regime to collapse on its own. Personally I think we are (and have been) too passive and there are lots of things we can do that are short of an open military strike.
All points well taken. The public/private duplicity is why I couched it as a UN resolution. Resolution may pass, it may not, but at least the principals in these leaked cables will have the chance to cast their votes in a transparently public forum. Under no circumstances should US go it alone with an open invasion – no one has the stomach for that. And – yes – there are no doubt lots of things we can/should do we aren’t doing short of open invasion. BHO’s silence during 2009′s Green Movement uprising was shameful and pathetic.
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”
Count me a Paleo-Conservative who wants to avoid entangling alliances and to return to taking care of Americans as Job Number One. That will lapse of course from time to time to actually fighting wars overseas; we can’t escape that in our small new world, as history has amply demonstrated.
But let’s use these new tactics of off-shore Naval maneuverings with remotely controlled drones and cyber-warfare. Let’s get away from massed ground forces in a combat zone.
The trouble with all this neocon analysis is that it rides on the Bushy fog of “regime change”, “encouraging better behavior”, altruism, faith, hope, charity, pacifism, turn the other cheek, be *nice* to your neighbors, “good will out”, “winning the peace”, “promoting democracy”, blah, blah, blah.
This is the agenda of a foreign policy driven by the Catholic Church.
What will solve the problem of Iran, the spread of muslim terrorism, and a host of other problems we face is simple: don’t wait for “regime change” — start destroying the countries that promote it. The obliteration of Tehran is a nice start, and it will lead to an incredible amount of cooperation from a lot of other people that cause us problems. Without expending hundreds of billions of dollars to occupy and re-build: we have *no* obligation to re-build a country that is our enemy, after we destroy them in self-defense. That is *their* responsibility.
It’s good to see these conversations.Iran is standing up for its own legitimate rights.If Americans are afraid of Iran whose fault is it?
THE WORLD ORDER SHOULD BE BASED ON GIVE RESPECT AND TAKE RESPECT. Till such time strifes and destructions will be there and no god is going to stop any such mayhem.Because religious bigots are running riot everywhere.In India, Pakistan,America, Iran and you name it… every country.As long religion continues dominate us problems will persist.
After seeing the rantings of white supremacist Americans I don’t feel like respecting any Americans.They are bullying around and the surely the nemesis of USA is at hand.Make no mistake of me.With more dangerous India and China rising USA is at great risk than Iran.The jingoistic Americans are in self- deceit mode and no body can save them.Neither Jesus nor Allah or even Krishna of India.Americans might as well start counting their backward clock.
* Arabs are “white” also
* If you don’t feel like respecting Americans, then don’t. Just keep your eplosives to yourself.
* “Our nemesis is at hand”? You may want to get some better Persian-to-English translation software.
* “make no mistake of me”? Somebody beat us to that.
* “no body can save us” ? Whatever dude.
methinks “ARUMBHU” works for the Iranian government….
The bad news about Wikileaks is the FCC will use it as an excuse to control the Internet.
This is what I’m most worried about. Create a crisis, create a ‘solution’. Sure, some crazy is out there spilling secrets like some rebel without a cause (in my opinion, he’s probably a megalomaniac with no power, so he siezes it in anyway he can, but that’s just one man’s opinion). My concern is that some other megalomaniac who actually has some power might actually use this as a (semi legitimate) excuse to royally screw us in the name of national defense.
As for Assange, I think he just wants to watch the world burn. Maybe he’s pro-left. I just see him as having somewhat of a Joker archetype: a man who wants to make his ‘mark’ on the world… no matter how many people could get hurt/killed in the process. If the US Govt has any justification to go after anyone, it’s the people feeding him information. The only thing the feeders are doing is feeding a maniac just what he needs: fuel. Last I checked giving up state secrets is a considerable crime. We need to punish the feeders according to the law (with the maximum punishment available). Dry up the source… then we’ll see what Assange does. As for Assange, he’s got his own problems. They’ll catch up to him eventually. Hell… maybe the Russians will go after him (in which case, we don’t have to kill him… we just don’t have to save him).
The trouble with America is that since WW2, it has sat back on its haunches and let the world improve but not improved itself. It believes (falsely) that everyone is afraid of them and they only have to speak and it will be done. Those times are gone.America has to rebuild its character,and it won’t be able to with an appeasement artist in the WH.There are countries that are illing to help,Australia being one. America has to stop being so arrogant and treat peoople a bit better,BUT not appease the evil ones.America must stand by its conviction of being a Christian nation.It should be for a fair deal BUT it has to show it takes no crapp.This Pres won’t do it.American folk are good to the core,but their pollies are corrupt and they are lied to by their Gov.It will work out in the end but will be hard.
Funny, I was thinking exactly the samething this guy is a infiltrator from Iran or the Old regime of Prussia, or ????
Imho. King Abdullah IS the snake.
“Europe can also be counted on to support such a strategy.”
Europe can’t be counted on for *anything* in foreign affairs.
And as for all that saber-rattling by Arab dictatorships like Saudi Arabia, if they want Iran brought down so bad why don’t they risk their own blood and treasure for a change? They’ve bought all this sophisticated military hardware, so if they really think their barbaric version of Islam is superior to Iran’s barbaric version of Islam (detecting a trend here) let them slug it out themselves.