Global Cold Wave May Be Looming — This Time, the Science Is Good
In a cosmically ironic twist of fate and timing, nature may be set to empirically freeze any and all anthropogenic global warming talk: a blast of Arctic cold may encase the earth in an icy grip not seen for 200 years.
This is not alarmist fantasy or 2012 babble — several natural forces that are known to cause cooling are awakening simultaneously, raising speculation of a “perfect storm” of downward pressures on global temperature. These forces let loose one at a time can cause the Earth to cool and can bring about harsh winter conditions. If they all break free at once, the effects could be felt not just in the coming winter, but year-round, and for several years to come.
On March 20, a volcano erupted on the island of Iceland. The eruption has continued at varying intensity to this day. A volcano erupting on Iceland is not an uncommon event — the island is one of the few spots where the mid-oceanic ridge rears up out of the water, revealing its violent personality. However, this particular volcano is different — it has acted as a reliable predictor of future much more explosive and consequential activity.
This volcano has only erupted three times since the 9th century, the last eruption occurring in the early 1820s. In the past, it has been followed by a much larger eruption by the nearby Katla volcano. Katla has erupted many times on its own, usually every 60 to 80 years, and last blew in 1918. It’s overdue.
Magnus Tomi Gudmundson is a geophysicist at the University of Iceland, and an expert on volcanic ice eruptions:
There is an increasing likelihood we’ll see a Katla eruption in the coming months or a year or two, but there’s no way that’s certain. …
From records we know that every time Eyjafjallajokull has erupted, Katla has also erupted.
The reason this is ominously significant is that these giant eruptions can change the weather on a planetary scale for years. Mount Laki, another large volcano in Iceland, has a history of producing climate changing eruptions. In the early summer of 1783, Laki erupted, releasing vast rivers of lava. The explosive volcano also ejected a massive amount of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide into the air — the eruption was so violent that the ash and sulfur dioxide were injected into the stratosphere, some 8 miles up. This cloud was then swept around the world by the stratospheric winds. The result was a significant decrease in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface for several years.
Eyjafjallajokull may be a small volcano, but when last it huffed and puffed it did so for two years. While it may be of interest to note Katla still hasn’t blown its top, it has increased in earthquakes and is indicating an expansion of its flank and an upwards motion in the magma chamber indicative it will eventually blow – even if it’s taking longer than expected.
the one question is that spots (indicating strength of the magnetic field) are showing up, though not nearly in the numbers NASA (or most notable solar physicists) predicted. While Dr. Svalgaard likes to remind people correlation is not causation, there does indeed appear to be a correlation between magnetic field activity (and right now, there isn’t much) and earthside temperatures. Imagine that, that big orange ball in the sky affects temperatures on earth. who’da thunk it?
Long-term Variations in Solar Activity and their Apparent Effect on the Earth’s Climate by K.Lassen
Nahle, N. Intergalactic Cosmic Rays and “Global Warming”. November 3, 2005. Journal on line of Biology Cabinet Organization. San Nicolás de los Garza, N. L. México.
Sunspots and climate by B. Geerts and E. Linacre
The mechanism appears to be: sunspots are caused by and the number proportional to the Sun’s magnetic field. A lower number of sunspots indicates a weaker magnetic field, which in turn lets more cosmic rays (high-speed heavy ions originating in supernovas, black holes, and other stars) through. The cosmic rays, when they hit the atmosphere, nucleate clouds and produce other effects in the atmosphere which have the overall effect of lessening the amount of sunlight that reaches the surface, thus lowering the temperature. The direct energy output of the sun itself may also be related to the number of sunspots.
That big orange ball in the sky affects temperatures on earth.
and perhaps temperatures _in_ earth, affecting seismic activity ?
Sol radiates more than sunlight; Some of the output may penetrate
to, and be absorbed by, the earth’s interior.
Nah, they’ll just call this a “temporary reprieve” or something.
Does this mean that Al Gore will have to return all the money?
nah, he’ll just do what hansen and co do and claim their carbon trading measures (or whatever else you want to call them) are working. never mind that only a fraction of what they wanted enacted has been, and temperatures and CO2 levels are nowhere near the projections they made 20 years ago.
Nah! Tipper will get all of it for accounting purposes.
Somewhere, some global warming alarmist is wrapped in the fetal position moaning “it was supposed to get hot!”
Don’t let Al Gore see this. It will burst his money making bubble.
Aw hell! just when we thought we’d heard the last of Ted Danson, you know mister new Ice Age prior to Global warming. Now we have to suffer the resurfacing of another dolt. From Al to Ted…..can’ we catch a break?
No offense intended, but I’ll take Ted Danson over Al Lying Gore any time. Ted may not be the sharpest scientific mind in the world but Al Gore simply lives to LIE and profit from it. Tipper finally saw the light and is getting away from the oaf.
Al Bore…er, Gore had better crank up his P.R. machine. I’m certain there’s plenty of money to be made on a “Global Cooling” scam….as well as numerous governments, dim-witted media types and…not to mention…millions of useful idiots just itching to fall for it. Go for it, Al!
never fear, gore will claim this is all part of global warming too. he is no scientist, or even logical. but ya got to give him an A+ for persistance. hmmmmm i wonder if the 9 million dollar mansion he just bought in the exact place that he claim is going to be under 20 ftt of water is waterproof and comes with a submarine?
If our governments were doing their real job of preparing for the foreseeable future, they would be maximizing agriculture in the equatorial areas of the earth, in case of reduced crop yields should the earth cool for an extended period of time.
Folks, we are overdue for an ice age. Even during some of the ice ages, it was still warm at the equator. There is only so much arable land in the equatorial zone, which has a year round growing season. If the future holds another Little Ice Age, we will have to adapt quickly if we are to avoid famine. Will humanity wake up and act in time?
Instead, our power-crazed bureaucrats waste literally billions of dollars trying to promote the ludicrous “science” of global warming, for no other purpose than to tax us into slavery.
A super volcano could disrupt world agriculture for 3-4 years. Imagine 2 years without agriculture. That would kill 2-3 billion people easy.
The Malthusians would like 2-3 billion dead, as long as it’s someone else.
Malthusian theory is spurious, it does not take into account the death rate as well as the birth rate. Also, as prosperity goes up, the birth rate always goes down, which the Gates foundation learned when they adjusted their assumption that the first thing needed for Africa was birth control. You would’t be interested in birth control, either, if your babies keep dying.
The greatest demographic problem in Europe right now is the low birth rate. This would not be so much of a problem except for the weaponless invasion of large numbers of poor, unskilled Islamic immigrants who soak up welfare and are enjoined by their religion to have at least 8 children per wife.
Where the Malthusians messed up was there assumption that there would be no improvements in technology that accompanied the increase in population.
What actually happened was that all those new minds, spent their time thinking up new solutions to old problems. The result is that even though there are more people on the planet, they all live better lives than before.
Aw, gee. Those poor folks in the Church of Global Warming are going to be all distressed and stuff. But I’m sure Pope Gore will find ways to lead them through the approaching Cold Crisis. They can hold firm to their faith in We’re All Gonna Die From Hot Doctrine by making posters of the fraudulent information churned out over the decades and hang them in their homes, right above Gore’s photo (taken at his new multi-million dollar home in bankrupt California).
I wonder if they will refuse to wear adequate clothing for the cold weather conditions, based on the conviction that it might expose their faithlessness and disobedience to the prime directive.
I am wondering if the solar minimum we are in has some causal affect on the El Nino/La Nina cycles? In other words can we expect the La Nina to be particularly strong/impactful given the extend solar minimum reducing the heat input into our system, or are they largely uncorrelated?
go over to wattsupwiththat.com it’s a very highly rated science blog and they’ve been discussing those issues.
I may be wrong on this but the magmatic composition if Icelandic eruptions are low on sulfur dioxide aerosols because the magmatic composition is mid-oceanic-basalts. Iceland straddles the divergent North American Plate and Eurasian plate. Mt. Pinatubo and Tambora volcanic eruptions are located at convergent plate boundaries and these magmas are typically enriched with sulfur dioxide aerosols and water. This makes for violent volcanic eruptions that eject the sulfur dioxide aerosols into the stratosphere. The Icelandic eruptions are quite compared to the aforementioned volcanic eruptions. It is the sulfur dioxide aerosols that induce global cooling, something which the Icelandic magmas lack.
Yoski
Congress and the prez had better get to passin’ that Climate Change bill so that if and when this cold hits us they’ll be able to crow that the carbon tax has been successful beyond their wildest expectations.
Unless it gets so cold that we’re into another famine, of course. If that happens, well, it’s Bush’s fault.
We’re due for a cold snap, sure, but we’re also due for the next ice-age. Although we couldn’t warm the earth from our present temperatures if we wanted to, there is a wide choice in which to warm the earth from ice-age temperatures–and with relative ease==if they can be heard through the noise of watermelon environmentalist.
The deepest principle in human nature is the craving to be appreciated — William James
The influence of volcanoes on climate is overrated. The one degree Pinatubo cooling did not happen – the cooling was all in the stratosphere and the troposphere paid no attention to it. But the La Nina cooling is real. I expect it to show up starting later this year. That is because it is part of an ENSO oscillation of warm El Nino and cool La Nina periods that takes about four-five years to complete. ENSO is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon involving the two equatorial currents, the equatorial countercurrent, and the trade winds. It has existed since the Isthmus of Panama rose from the sea and is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. It was observed by satellites in the eighties and nineties but was then interrupted by the super El Nino of 1998 and its aftermath, the twenty-first century high. The latter was a run of six warm years that came to an end with a La Nina cooling in 2008. Neither was part of ENSO and both were the result of a storm surge in the Indo-Pacific area. The appearance of a La Nina in 2008 tells us that the ENSO oscillations from the eighties and nineties are back with us. It is these climate oscillations and not some fantasy warming from IPCC computers spewing out GIGO that will be our climate future. For more info read “What Warming?” available on Amazon.com.
Well, hey, following the logic of the “warmers,” we now need to burn MORE fossil fuels to combat global cooling! Get those carbon emissions back up to pre-hysteria levels!
Or, maybe we should follow the REAL science of Lindzen — the greenhouse gas effect is yet another unproven theory (even though our kids have been indoctrinated with it in their science books), and carbon emissions do NOT effect global climate.
Actually, the greenhouse effect is quite real. Why do you think greenhouses work?
See noted AGW critic Dr. Roy Spencer’s essay at: http://tinyurl.com/25f67un
The greenhouse effect is a natural part of the Earth’s climate system. The problem with the alarmists’ hysteria over it is that they ignore the role of water vapor (far more important than CO2) and way overplay the effects of Man’s activities, which are really quite minimal.
Did you read the link you provided?
I know the greenhouse effect is real, but the term is unfortunate, as the mechanism that keeps a greenhouse warm is not the greenhouse effect. The link you provided makes this point, so asking why we think greenhouses work is misleading, and suggests you didn’t read your own link.
In Minnesota, we call it ‘winter’.
Yes. But in much of the world it would be called a disaster. Crop failures, famine, disease, destruction, fuel shortages, and death would follow (again).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
“Stop confusing us with facts and statistics! We reach conclusions based on feelings and emotions. It’s easier that way and we can change our minds and never fear the sting of hypocrisy.” (gleaned from an interview with a liberal American under the influence of a psychotropic drug).
the earth is hurting. I feel it man.
Excellent article and the science is sound. A Katla event is not a foregone conclusion, though, and no one knows what the disappearance of the sunspots from the visible spectrum will do, nor has anyone even a plausible mechanism.
Nonetheless, the last two times the sunspots did the Cheshire Cat thing, during the Maunder and Dalton Minimums, the earth cooled. There was also vulcanism during those times which might have cooled the earth. So, we don’t know.
The present cooling phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, during which Las Ninas will predominate, is the most reliable of Art Horn’s predictors. We can count on at least two decades of cooling from that. After that, who knows, though personally I believe the sun is going to get in on the act and cool us for a century or so.
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Add to the seriousness of enormous global cooling (kills more people than warming ever did), if the world erupts into nuclear war (not likely, but certainly looking possible), or even just a conventional world war, oil supplies will be disrupted, which means no fuel for heat or anything else. I just want to say to all those environmentalists who fought tooth and nail any oil drilling off America’s shores, any drilling for natural gas, any new digging for coal, and the expansion of nuclear power… thanks a heap.
In the last 2 million ears, (if my geologic class notes from 1962 are correct) the earth has experienced “60″ period of glaciation. Hmmm! this desert we got here in Arizona, may become arable after all. I’m far more worried about the idiot U.S. Political class than I am about climate change or the “BP” spill etc. And friends I think you might want to consider that point also?
check “6″
I loved this article and linked to it on my blog.
Funny how facts, science, and logic are never enough for the religiously fervent (on AGW at least) liberal!
Cracks me up!
I loved this article and I linked to it on my blog. It never ceases to amaze me how you can back a liberal into a corner with simple facts, reason, and real science.
But then again, to the liberal, AGW is a religion. Some of these people, like Algore, are through the looking glass!
ROTFLMAO!!!
See also “Fallen Angels” by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle.
(SF, the “greens” take over U.S. politics, clean up the environment, and promptly plunge the Earth into an ice age – that had only been held off by global warming. Pretty good story, based on real science.)
When the megavolcano which is Yellowstone National Park erupts, all of North America will be devastated and the earth will be plunged into another Ice Age. It is due to erupt any time now, given its cycle.
Wow, there’s a cheerful thought. I bet you’re great fun at parties.
Actually, the seismologists monitoring Yellowstone
are partying hardy; Maybe they know something we do not know.
There is no point in worrying about or preparing for
that explosive eruption, beyond getting right with God.
We would need a stock of canned food for 6 billion people for 6 years to survive a supper volcano. A Yellowstone eruption would takeout the US on day one and retard agriculture around the word for up to 5-6 years. We would be down below a billion people after a decade. The wars and barbarity that would ensue after a catastrophic drop in food supply would be amazing.
A supper volcano, yes. But what about the far more commonplace lunch volcano?
“From records we know that every time Eyjafjallajokull has erupted, Katla has also erupted.” I see this statement made over and over again, but never with any time mentioned. When did Katla erupt? One year? 6 months? 4 decades? If Katla erupts every 60 to 80 years, it was bound to erupt after the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which has only erupted three times in the last thousand or so years. So what does this statement mean?
As far as the left is concerned, it will not matter whether it is global warming or cooling. The solution will still be massive control on the world’s economy.
If the earth is going to cool then I’m going to start selling carbon debits. It’s very simple. Y’all send me a big pile of money and then I’ll go cut down a tree and burn it in my wood stove. It will help warm the planet, or at least my house. AlGore can’t have all the fun…
It only takes one summer when the snow does not melt to cause a new ice age.
That can happen. Once more…human beings may shape the world but are only forces of nature not apart from nature.
Humans are mostly punny.
Correct.
Strong winters don’t start ice ages, cool summers do.
When Summers stop melting all the ice from winter then we have glaciation.
Don’t worry — al-Gore will co-opt this one, too. “We meant global cooling all along. There never was a war in Eurasia.”
Remember, cooling = warming in the AGW religion.
If these predictions come true, man-made-global-warming-supporters will agree that these natural phenomenom caused the earth to cool. They will claim that the earth would be 1-2 degrees warmer (something that can’t be proved) if this hadn’t occured.
They will watch the thermometers over the next decade, waiting for tempertures to rise again, and use the accelerated warming to produce a new hockey stick graph showing that the Earth is warming faster than originally thought. (Their data will be well documented so we can’t argue how it was collected.) Natural cooling will have saved us a few years, but the new numbers show we’re in much worse shape than ever.
They’ll be the first to say the earth can cool naturally, but they’ll never agree that it warms naturally too. They all have too much invested in this lie.
Several mentions of Algore. He will have to split his carbon credits and snake oil. The gore carbon footprint will double.
Even some women get tired of male know-it-alls and do not want to watch power point presentations in bed.
I watched a documentary on yellow stone regarding that massive volcano and the thought of that erupting in the most catastrophic fashion would end almost all of the earths current problems for a while. There are also scenarios that do not have it going up in a cataclysmic way that are very survivable. If we have ice in New Orleans who will go save those people, because they won’t be able to save themselves. Actually ice-age could be survivable in the US as we export a large amount of food. We might not be exporting as much but we would likely live through it. Northern Europe, Russia, Canada and other cold places might have a much more difficult time though. An ice age sure would cut down on the places that are known as liberal strong holds though.
It snowed in Salt Lake City last week…Latest snowfall on record. Just sayin!
Remember, Obama and Clinton promised 100 billion dollars a year in transfer payments to poor countries suffering from the effects of global warming…If there is global cooling do they pay us instead??? O
No wonder Tipper decided to split from Al – the EMBARRASSMENT of it all!
This is why they stopped calling it global warming. It is now called global climate change. No matter what the weather does they can blame man or george bush for it and demand our money to fix it.
Fimbulvetr: There will come a winter three years long, no summer will break it.
There will be a sword age, an axe age
A shielf age, a wolf age
There will be an age of blood before the world is wrecked.
Fire and ice; that is how the world began.
Fire and ice; that is how the world will end.
Ragnarok, from the Eddas…
Hasn’t frozen up in the Northeast yet:
http://wbztv.com/local/record.warm.spring.2.1743079.html