Juan Cole Gives Iran the Benefit of the Doubt
While the war-mongering Bush administration is accused of secretly plotting to trick the country into an ill-advised military campaign in Iran (which never comes to fruition), the Iranian regime’s word is trusted, despite its past history of concealing and lying about key nuclear sites, and according to the very National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) Cole cites, working on actual nuclear weapons until 2003.
Cole uses the NIE of 2007, which the intelligence community reportedly still stands by, to argue that Iran isn’t “pursuing” a nuclear weapon. After the uproar following the document’s publication, then-Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell said he regretted the document’s phrasing on the issue and clarified that by “nuclear weapons” work they meant that activity related to covert enrichment and warhead development had ceased in 2003, but that Iran’s overt nuclear program could be a building block towards the pre-planned, eventual creation of a nuclear weapon. Even in the area of explicit nuclear weapons development, only “moderate confidence” was expressed that such work had not been restarted.
Furthermore, if the intelligence on the matter is as “clear” as Cole says, then why has French President Sarkozy said it is a “certainty” to his intelligence service that Iran is working on nuclear weapons? A German intelligence report also said that nuclear weapons work “can be observed in Iran even after 2003.” Why the discrepancy?
He mentions that people involved in the program have defected, likely a reference to former Deputy Defense Minister Ali Reza Asghari, who switched sides in 2007 and is rumored to have provided some of the key information influencing the NIE. However, Asghari also says that Iran was financing the Syrian nuclear program being built with North Korean help, perhaps as a way of outsourcing its covert activity, and had secret nuclear sites that would be used if the overt program was shut down.
In other words, the term “nuclear weapons program” as used in the NIE of 2007 was misleading because it didn’t include the overt energy program as part of the term. Thus, McConnell has regrets about the phrasing.
So, what’s more likely: that Iran suddenly decided in 2003 that it no longer wanted nuclear weapons, or that it stopped because it had made satisfactory progress in the area and made a wise decision to focus on the steps necessary before the actual construction of a weapon? If it’s the latter, then this idea has worked because the IAEA says that Iran now has the capability to produce a nuke.
Such a move would reduce the traces of illegal activity and would allow Iran to more safely develop the expansive infrastructure required for the final phase of becoming a nuclear weapons state. Yet, from Cole’s appearance, viewers would believe that Iran has decided against obtaining nuclear weapons and the West’s excitement over its nuclear energy program is misplaced.
In a recent interview with NBC, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran was not trying to build nuclear weapons because “we don’t need nuclear weapons. Without such weapons, we are very much able to defend ourselves.” When the reporter emphasized that he was not ruling out developing them in the future, he replied with, “You can take from this whatever you want, madam.”
The script is being written. The infrastructure to develop a nuclear weapon is being built and, one day, due to some “aggression” by Israel or the U.S., Iran will declare it has “changed its mind,” to use Juan Cole’s words, and must have nuclear weapons. This won’t be an act in reaction to some misguided Western foreign policy decision but the completion of a long-range scheme. But that’s okay; maybe they’ll “change their mind” again.
Reputed Middle-East expert? Juan Cole?
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2006/04/fitzgerald-a-tribute-to-juan-cole.html
Why are dolts like this even listened too?
Fanatical Islam is the new home of the world’s Useful Idiots. Welcome, Perfesser Cole.
Idiots abound.
Well, actually, Iran’s support of Hamas is NOT a foregone conclusion. The main financial backers of Hamas are the fellow-Sunni Saudis, not the Iranians. This is widely known.
That reminds me of the Democratic congressmen who visited Iraq in 2002 and informed us that they trusted Saddam, but not Dubya.
Cole IS a respected scholar in the field–but neither of intelligence, nor of WMD programs, but rather of of Iranian Shi`ism in the last several centuries. I don’t quite know how that qualifies him to opine on issues that are frankly outside his purview. My Ph.D. is in Islamic history and eschatology yet when folks ask me about Iranian WMDs I tell them “I have no bloody idea.” Perhaps my hubris level is lower than Cole’s.
Yeah, so respected that both Yale and Princeton decided not to take him on. Real scholars are expected to research, publish and teach, and in the process advance the state of knowledge. Cole is a propagandist. The fact that Michigan keeps him on and – worse – brings self-hating Israeli “scholar” Neve Gordon as a visiting professor is the reason I no longer give to my alma mater.
I wonder if anyone asked Cole why, if Iran’s intentions are so innocuous, they’re moving so aggressively on missiles like the enhanced Shahab 3 and the surprisingly advanced solid-fueled Sejil. Exactly what does he think they’ll be carrying?
To get a flavor of the intellect of Juan Cole, he’s on record stating that the Iranian electoral process is far more democratic and fair than the US electoral process! This was stated by him in the aftermath of the first Iraqi election which he criticized mercilessly. Even with all of our flaws, this is an insane position to embrace. The slaughter after the last Iranian “election” didn’t seem to dampen his ardour for Islamic fascism one iota. It is especially chilling to know that this anti-Americanac “academic” moron is considered an “expert” on Islam, and is consulted by entities ranging from business, academia, media, and worst of all, our government (!!!???). It’s no wonder that since 9/11 we continue to be fed a steady diet of pure bull shit and lies by our leadership and media about the nazi Religion of Peace. No wonder we were caught with our pants down on 9/11 as the Islamic Jihad gained momentum. Seditious traitors like Juan Cole have been working hard to subvert our society and elevate our enemies all along, and this type of scum still has the ears of our media and government.
Raymond: as an OSU grad school grad, I didn’t want to bring the UM connection into this, but….Cole’s presence there tells you something about the level of PCness in Ann Arbor, doesn’t it?
I can vouch for Raymond’s assertions. Mr. Cole is an academic lightweight and self-promoting arabist. His lack of serious scholarship in Islamic studies is quite embarassing considering that he claims rank of “herr” professor (see: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jrcole/cv.htm). The reason that he enjoys such relative immunity is that his hatred of Israel is embraced by the cesspool community of anti-Semitism that he swims in.
Actually it isn’t hard to make Juan Cole look like an idiot as he does a good job of it without help.
“The Founding Fathers of the United States deeply feared that a foreign government [like Israel] might gain this level of control over a branch of the United States government, and their fears have been vindicated.” – Juan Cole
He is a raving anti-Semitic who fits right in with the rest of leftist academics. These are not well educated people, they are ideologues that use their so called knowledge to be PC bigots.
What an educated idiot !! It’s not Israel we should fear, but liberal thinking nuts.