Get Ready for an Even More Radical Iranian Regime
It could be because, as U.S. intelligence concluded, the Iranians now have enough uranium for a nuclear bomb and they need only enrich it to the high levels required to act as the fuel for such a weapon, but it’s unclear how long that will take them. The Israeli and U.S. intelligence communities still estimate that this will happen between 2010 and 2015, with the latter feeling it will be further into the future and the former being less optimistic.
This current posture is increasing support for crippling sanctions among members of Congress and the Obama administration. One would think that the Iranian regime would look upon such a development with fear given its reliance upon imported refined gasoline and decide to cloak its intentions until the tide passes, but the regime has not, and that may be because of Venezuela’s decision to come to the rescue.
Venezuela has agreed to export 20,000 barrels of gasoline to Iran each day, softening the impact of such potential sanctions. Chavez has also disclosed plans for Iran to begin a “nuclear village” in his country, probably the beginnings of joint efforts towards nuclear weapons production capabilities like we’ve seen Iran engage in with North Korea, Syria, and Sudan. This relationship could also allow the Iranians to mine for uranium in Venezuela, allowing them to overcome the shortage that was expected to face them over the next year.
Venezuela’s helping hand, the lack of sustained Western support for the Iranian opposition, and the Russian opposition to tougher sanctions are undoubtedly encouraging the regime to feel it has the freedom to show its true colors and act more aggressively.
At the same time, however, the internal threat to Iran’s rulers has not subsided. As I’ve written earlier, the Green Revolution has just taken a new form. There aren’t massive crowds of over a million people, but there are relentless, scattered acts of opposition nationwide. The Iranian people are spreading the word about protests by writing down their locations and times on paper money. Mehdi Karroubi’s stock is rising due to his propensity to take the regime head-on, accusing the security services of rape and torture. His name is being mentioned more and more often than Mousavi’s lately and the regime is taking notice, issuing an arrest warrant for his son and shutting down his offices to confiscate evidence of the rape he’s been using to energize the opposition.
Unfortunately, the clock is ticking as the regime minimizes the time it needs to build a nuclear arsenal. If it becomes widely accepted that Iran has the capability to make a nuclear weapon, look for a change in the language of the West’s leaders. They won’t talk about stopping Iran from getting nuclear capability and they may not even talk about stopping a nuclear Iran. They’ll focus on the warheads, arguing that Iran doesn’t have the delivery capability yet, and therefore there is still time.
Unless Israel delays the program through direct action or the regime falls due to internal pressure and harsh international sanctions, the debate about Iran is going to change. Expect to hear more about warheads and less about bombs. And when that debate occurs, the regime will become even more radicalized, ready to move forward with the “new revolution” that Ahmadinejad believes God has tasked the regime with carrying out.
Game over. We are in deep shit.
Iran has already got several disillusions with Ahmadinejad’s anger and authority.
They are now approaching the civil diplomacy and it will be hard for their real international power to refresh war and terrorism.
That implies some tolerance inside Iran too.
As the west fiddles they will continue to bide their time while developing Nuclear weapons, feeding terrorists in Iraq, Afghanistan, Hamas and Hezbollah. Once they are sure they have a working nuke expect the heat to be turned up everywhere, especially Israel. This will escalate into something tragic.
It is the aim of Russia to block the straits of Hormuz in order to boost the price of their oil. The conflagration Iran causes will necessitate an Israeli response which will accomplish this goal.
The Russians play chess. Everyone else Candy Land.
Yeah. One of those signs was Obama’s capitulation two days ago of the missile defense system designed to protect us from a direct nuclear strike from Iran. We are screwed and our children are screwed.
Yes, elections have consequences, and the consequences of this election is that you had better have a horde of gold to spend after the dollar disintegrates. It would also help to have a bomb shelter to hide in after nukes start falling on our home soil.
Or we can wake up and remove these clowns known as the Obama administration through the time honored use of impeachment.
Hey Barack! That fist upside your head unclenching yet?
We are currently paying the price for Jimmy Carter’s ineptness in dealing with Iran. And, Obama is a Carter redux……Here we are, almost three decades later, coddling Iran AGAIN! I suspect that after Obama is gone from office, the citizens of the USA will be dealing with the mess well into the year 2040. That is, if a USA even exists by 2040.
#5, why do you think he would go? The Usurper has no respet for the Constitution, the nation it defines nor the rule of law.
The useful fools are all prattling on about winning the next election without giving thought to the simple possibility that there won’t be a next election.
Just because there has always been elections doesn’t mean there will always be election. Right now the best hope for America is that the CIA does a Kennedy on the Usurper. Or his Air Force escort hits the wrong button. Accidents happen, you know.
Back on topic, remember the lessons from the British Empire. The Empire is gone, but the peoples it ruled are still the same.
3rd worlder’s are either at your throat or at your knees. Treating them as equals just confuses them.
This is a fact because the 3rd world is not equal to the 1st and the 3rd worlders see that EVERY day. The streets of Cairo are jammed with autos. NONE of them manufactured in Egypt. Dittto for Singapoer, Dakar, etc. Go in any home of a well to do Egyptian and you will find appliances from Germany, USA or some other European nation. No washing machine, freezers or micro-waves made in Egypt, Lebanon or Kenya. The third worlders see this every day and KNOW they are not equal. Not being equal means either better or worse.
At your throat or at your knees.
His new optimism could be that Obama has convienced him the US will not defend Israel. In addition Obama canceled America’s missle shield program and is working to unilaterally disarm America of nukes.
Every murderous wackjob in the world knows this is the time to make their moves against America and American allies. The “president of the world” is on the side of America’s enemies; no doubt about it. He’s also setting up defeat and slaughter for American troops in Afghanistan with viet nam style rules of engagement.
The Manchurian Candidate In Full Bloom – Handlers Very Content (AP, 2 pm. PST – coverage constantly updated).
Why would Ahmadinejad act differently since for years he has been caressed and “understood” by the internationalist/ left wing coteries that makes for the United Nations? And now, tracks having been nicely oiled by El Baradei & the Nobel Prize committee, with Hussein’s ascent in the White House Ahmadinejad’s can merrily sail ahead – his best years are here.
On the other hand, Obama didn’t do an idiocy with his missiles shield decision – contrary, his decision was a deliberate (and alas! fully predictable!) step in advancing his agenda for weakening America by discouraging our allies and by giving our rivals the chance to strenghten their positions.
The return of Churchill’s bust to London wasn’t a mistake – it was a deliberate affront showing the British that they are on America’s list of partners somewhere behind Malawi but ahead of Tobriand Island.
Skipping the Gdansk commemoration of the WWII beginnings and having there only gen. Jones (who isn’t even a cabinet member), shows the same – but mister Putin was present at Gdansk.
As far as the missiles shield situation it is uncessary to outguess the Russians in this situation – they have confirmed credentials of doing what they announce they will do. The Kremlin said bluntly that there is no quid-pro-quo in this situation – it’s that simple, Obama took the Europeans to the laundry on the fuzzy notion that Russia will in a way or other influence Iran.
This won’t happen, since:
1) Russia has no interest whatsoever to do anything to enhance or help America’s safety, reputation or strategical interests, in this case, defanging Iran, and:
2) even if they would want to do something in this situation, they simply don’t have that much of a leverage there -
… thus, the Manchurian Candidate SUCCEEDED!
A confirmation that this decision’s consequences will be ugly comes from Robert Gates himself, who tiredly credited the decision on some “new perceptions” regarding Iran’s atomic capabilities – my! “perceptions”, this is the newspeak used for assessing the risks of a nuclear war?
Not really – “perception” here means “include me out”, i.e., it is a term hedging the Pentagon’s presence in a decision likely to have odious consequences.
But ’till then, the Manchurian Candidate’s handlers sure have some most excellent days in the recent memory -
Hi Ryan,
Very interesting article. You talked about the fact that Ahmadinejad believes that God has tasked him with the new revolution. Since I know these so called officials from up close, I can assure you that Ahmadinejad is no more religious than those who rape in prison under the name of Allah. He uses this sort of language to fool his followers. He knows very well that many of the things he said and does is heresy in the very religious he is supposedly so zealous about! He lies on live TV, he suppresses, he tortures and… to keep the Islamic Republic in power. That is the main goal of the Ahmadinejad tribe. To stay in power. And I don’t personally think it has anything to do with God. We hear a lot of things here in Iran about the family members of these officials who are in power. Most of them are drowning in their own moral corruption! Believe me, I know. So don’t believe what they say about “carrying out the will of God” and so on. They want us to think that they’re religious and actually believe in the stuff their doing. But they’re not.
I totally agree with you that the regime is becoming more radical, because the US does not support the Iranian opposition which emboldens the regime. The regime is trying to survive for even one more day and clenches to anything to help its survival. Whether it be to suppress more or work faster on its nukes or carry out more terrorist activities in neighboring countries.
As we move on you can see that as the days go on, they get more radicalized, in and out of Iran.