Germany Swings to the Center-Right
German Chancellor Angela Merkel cruised to victory in federal elections on Sunday with enough votes to form a new center-right government with her preferred partner, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).
Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), won nearly 34 percent of the votes, according to preliminary returns. At the same time, the classical liberal FDP won nearly 15 percent of the votes, the party’s best showing ever.
With a combined total of around 49 percent, the CDU/CSU and the FDP won a stable majority in Germany’s multiparty system. This will give Merkel the green light to ditch the awkward four-year-old “grand coalition” between the CDU/CSU and her party’s main rival, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), and replace it with a center-right CDU/CSU-FDP coalition.
In fact, the SPD was by far the biggest loser on Sunday, winning only 23.5 percent of the votes, its worst performance since World War II. The result will cast the SPD into the opposition for the first time in 11 years. It will now work to rebuild itself and probably choose new leaders.
During the campaign, Merkel repeatedly stressed that she wanted to govern with the business-friendly FDP, which has been out of power since 1998, in order to cut taxes in a bid to further revitalize a German economy that has been hit hard by the global recession.
In the weeks leading up to the election, the SPD had registered a slight but significant uptick in its poll numbers, due in large measure to the exploitation of fears among German voters that the tax cuts promised by a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would ultimately lead to a cut in social welfare benefits.
The SPD also tried, unsuccessfully, to boost its poll numbers by exploiting voter unease about the war in Afghanistan. In recent weeks, party leader and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (as well as Germany’s sycophantic left-wing news media) had repeatedly raised the issue of Afghanistan, at one point going so far as to present a plan for completely withdrawing German troops from the country.
Moreover, and in stark contrast to Spain in March 2004, German voters were not intimidated by Islamist terrorists. Just one week before the election, al-Qaeda threatened the German electorate by demanding an end to Germany’s military mission in Afghanistan.
Kern seems to imply that this victory is one conservatives in the states should find solace in. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The fact is center-right in Europe is pretty far left here in the states on a number of levels. The political right, as we know it here in the states, does not exist in Europe anymore. Merkel’s ideology might be considered the right wing of the Socialist Party. However, I understand the need to find a crumb when it falls from the table.
Thanks god – and congrats to PJM who has Soren Kern (I understand he’s based in Spain), to zap over time zones from Europe in political matters.
I think Merkel’s doing avery good job in difficult circumstances – as far as Steinmeier, it’s enough to know that he steeled his political vision and character around Schroeder to be worried about him being around the helm of one of the most powerful states in the world.
Since in most E. European countries also the elections have largely maintained or brought in government right-center figures this trend in Europe bodes well -
bravo Angela
@ Praetorian, #1 post.
Movement right is movement right, the momentum is in the desired direction.
If Europe is finding it’s senses, the US cannot fail to.
Have to agree with no. 1 (praetorian) on this one, the policies of the right wingers in most western european countries would make an alabama democrat blush, let alone a republican. They (the european right) are much more progressive in europe. However, I am one that believes in a blend in government and I think Obama having a conservative as secratary of defense, like clinton did, is a good thing.
Good Article, thanks.
GO ANGIE!!!! YOU RULE, GIRL!!! … hmmm… I’m sorry… Frau Merkel, but YOU RULE ANYWAY!!!!!!!!!! YEEEEEAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Obama, go and f… yourself!!! Germans didn’t buy your propaganda!!!!!!!! GERMANS DON’T WANT SOCIALISM!!!!!!!!!!!! GO ANGIE!!!!!!!!!!!!! YOU ARE THE BEST!!!!!!
The Islam-Socialist Alliance will be crushed and run Leftwingers thoroughly discredited and shamed for generations from respectability.
Cutting taxes to stimulate an economy!HERESY!!
Praetorian:
“I understand the need to find a crumb when it falls from the table.”
How about this… are they hostile to the US like the social dems?
Merkel wants to cut taxes and has resisted bankrupting Germany with borrowed “stimulus” taxpayer-money as urged by the USA and Britain. Oh…and she won re-election.
Praetorian – get real. Until American conservatives win anything, you come across as a silly goose for preening yourself as “righter-than-thou.” I’m with Marina: “Go frumpy German woman!”
Praetorian is absolutely correct. These folks aren’t really conservative rather they are more akin to pro-business Obamas.
Traditionally, Germany’s strongest party chooses the chancellor and the coalition party chooses the foreign minister. If this tradition holds, the head of the FDP, Guido Westerwelle, will assume the post. I am not sure how he (or the party) will perform in this role. He has made campaign noises about a timeline for Afghanistan withdrawal, but they have been rather vague. In general foreign policy has been on the back burner for the party as they have concentrated on economic issues.Hans Dieter Genscher was foreign minister from 74 to 92 and is still the most revered FDP personality. But he dealt with foreign policy in an era of nations, not nonstate terrorists, so I am not sure how relevant his advice will be. The party also has a strong tradition of resisting government data collection and always questions things like electronic IDs.
This means that Merkel will not have a free hand in determining foreign policy or inner security. We will have to see how the coalition negotiations play out. On the whole, the German people favor a pacifist route, but party leaders in a TV talk round this evening all agreed that the Left Party’s positions on NATO etc. were out of cloud cuckoo land. The only thing I can predict right now is that Merkel won’t be aiming for a job with Gazprom when she retires.
The Tories are fixin to clean house in the UK as well, (with a side slice of BNP, which is poaching voters from Labour big time).
Gert Wilders PPV is fix to win a plurality.
It will be fascinating to watch Europe undo the damage that the New Left inflicted on Western Civilization there since the 60s.
THE FDP – “CLASSICAL LIBERAL” – ???????????
BE VERY CAREFUL WITH THIS PARTY. They are called “LIBERALE” in Germany. But it’s the fishiest party in Germany nowadays. ‘Cause there are 2 FDPs – the one declares (and has the votes), the other rules (and is very, very strange). The official declarations of the FDP make it totally capitalistic and pro-freedom, and pro-free-market, etc. in the voters’ eyes for years. But then Obama wins. And the leaders of the FDP come out and say “Oh, great! He’s a LIBERAL, JUST LIKE US”. I’m sorry, but even the Leftardopedia (aka Wikipedia) had to admit there are two definitions of Liberalism (the one of Obama = American one, and the one of the official FDP position = European one) that contradict each other. And yet the party that calls itself “Liberal” (in the CLASSICAL SENCE) – for YEARS – in EUROPE – has no idea about it???? The FDP wants (officially) as less state as possible and wants to reduce taxes radically, but they REALLY declare Obama as their partner. (Of course, the EU-MSM will never tell the Euros what Obama is up to, but the party officials should know how to use the internet… – so many years to learn…). And they praise Obama all the time, because he’s “LIBERAL” (come on, people, you know “liberal” in America means “socialist” = exactly the opposit stuff to your position – why do you say such a sh…? – INDEED, WHY?).
Plus, the FDP is anti-ISRAEL. All parties in Germany, except for Angies’s CDU / CSU are anti-Israel (although most of them will never admit it). But nobody expects anything else from the Left (SPD, “the Left” or “the Greens”). But a party that declares itself “center-right” in Europe is actually expected to show at least SOME understanding for Israel. Not the FDP. Nice words (“we understand”). But when during the latest Gaza conflict Angie said it was all the fault of the Hamas, the FDP was one of the first to condemn her: “We have to maintain the balance! We don’t dare to take sides!” and all that sh… (you can read the similar sh.. in the NYT). That’s pretty spooky. And their present position on Israel is “Yes, we owe Jews a lot” plus “Yes, they have the right to their own land” – but the rest is WOW: “WHAT OBAMA SAYS” – And we all know what Obama says…
So, it’s very sad that the only coalition Angie can chose is between pro-free-market anti-Semites and anti-free-market anti-Semites, very, very sad. But SHE’S IN CHARGE. At least she’ll try to prevent the most evil attempts to harm the free world. G-d bless her!
@EV
Geert Wilders has views that are socialist in some cases. He and the Socialist Party (SP) agree on a number of issues.
I offer this. With Merkel re-writing the rules, one can be politically right and economically Keynesian (shades of Nixon, Heath, and so forth). So, is it any surprise that the German voters punished the SPD because Merkel was doing what they
would do? Thereby forcing the SPD to look for a new identity.
Socialists are big losers in any sane world.
To take Marina’s comments another step, Westerwelle also wants to be cool and probably sees Obama as, at least partly, worthy of emulation.
ANOTHER DELUSION, Mr. Kern:
“The SPD also tried, unsuccessfully, to boost its poll numbers by exploiting voter unease about the war in Afghanistan.”
That wasn’t the SPD. That was the OBAMA ADMINISTRATION. The proof: video threats comes to Germany all the time, years and years long. The previous administration (red-n-green, aka. Schroeder n Fischer, aka. Schroefisch) sent German boys to Afganistan and now play they were all against it. But the video threats started to come in the time of Schroefish, and the Leftartd MSM never reported about it. All these years. Jerusalem Post reported about it better then the German MSM. And now, suddenly, we have a certain month in a certain year where all the MSM in Germany (and abroad) start to report about it… WOW… —- why actually?
Then we have the US Administration (= Obama) making a WARNING to all the US travellers to Germany – SURPRISE !!!!!!!! – “It’s dangerous NOW to go to Germany” – All of a sudden – when those stupid videos were a norm for more than a year. And Obama didn’t give a crap about such a warning untill the German election… Very interesting…
And when we think about all the video threats the US gets all the time… And Germany has NEVER made a problem of it for its tourists… Somehow weird…
And then comes the socialist-ruled (= Obama obeying) Great Britain, that makes the same warning the next day. WOW, that was probably the last straw for the Germans. The Americans have at least managed (under Bush) not to let the other attacks happen. But the Brits????? With all their bombings??? WOW… How dare they??? It was really too much. Even after the REAL ATTACKS, not the video threats, in the UK had Germany not made such a warning for the tourists. And now the Germans just felt: “WOW… What the hell do they think they are? – We didn’d trash them when they were ATTACKED and they trash us for an internet video?” – Well… many were just pissed off… (and that’s politely expressed).
And the main question remains: if such video threats were actually a norm for years:
1. why the lefty press has started to report about it only now? (because they can get “Die Linke” = The Left elected, at least as a part of the coalition?)
2. why the Obama administration makes the warning only now? (because they can get The Left elected…?)
3. why the Gordon Brown administration makes a warning only now? (because they can please Obama and help him to get the Left elected?)
But it was NEVER the SPD – the SPD was the one who SENT the boys to Afghanistan, no matter what Steinmeier said, he had no chance to win with this agenda, only the Left and the FDP could win on it, and the MSM made it the clear win for “The Left”. Because that’s what Obama wants: EUROPEAN SOCIAL-DEMOCRATS are not Communist enough for him. He wants Die Linke, i.e. the ex-Communist party of the ex-GDR (that opposed the operation in Afganistan from the beginning) – they are his favourits.
And the question of Afghanistan is just a trap. After the election all the lefty party would have sent as many German soldiers to Afghanistan as Obama wanted, and nobody in Germany would have known (MSM are MSM).
So, they made up the whole Afghanistan-threat stuff just to boost the votes for Die Linke (= the real Commies), not for the SPD.
P.S. If you really wanna have fun, check out the German version of the “Don’t vote” sh…-y video on the You Tube, just to know HOW FAR has the American Left reached Europe. Really spooky. But somehow funny anyway. Because the Euros tick differently. It’s SO WEIRD, wow, you watch it and think: “Where did they find those mushrooms?”.
I guess praetorian’s “broken clock” moment has arrived.
Yes, the European right is a great example of Mark Steyn’s argument that when you nationalize health-care you end up with a permanent center-left political spectrum, regardless of one segment of that political spectrum calls itself “conservative”. One of my best friends is a Frenchman of just this sort of “conservative” stripe. A good guy, but he just doesn’t have the same level of “get up and go” that a real American has, since he’s more used to a coddled socialist-lite existence.
Also, all the US right has to really do is wait out the clock. The entire European world is about to implode (even more spectacularly than we will) as the bill comes due for the Baby Boomers’ retirement pensions and health care. And that’s not even mentioning the demographic crisis. As “Spengler” from the Asia Times put it, a hundred years from now, the only place German will be spoken is amongst the Nazis in Hell. As a great admirer of Nietzsche, this saddens me, but Nietzsche himself actually foresaw this all happening as a consequence of the socialist movement, so I (and the rest of the world) can’t say I wasn’t forewarned.
@Marina
I wouldn`t overestimate the support for Obama from the FDP. It was only a opportunistic tactic to gain voter-support through Obamas popularity in Germany.
The same is true for their foreign policy stance on Israel. They take a neutral position to gain a maximum of support, because most german voters dislike military actions.
But at least, the FDP is strongly for the right of existence for Israel.
Thus it`s wrong to label der Free Democrats as anti-Israel. They may have a naive and opportunistic foreign-policy agenda, but i assume, that Merkel will shape the direction of german foreign policy, as she did unter the grand-coalition.
“Die Linke” is more or less the sole party in parliament, which i would discribe as anti-Israel. Some of their Members even demonstrate together wie Hisbollah and Hamas supporters. “Die Linke” was also the sole party, who didn`t support a declaration against antisemitism, while all other parties supportet the proposed declaration.
In generall, i assume, that Merkels CDU/CSU overrule the FDP in foreign politics, while the FDP influences the CDU/CSU in economy-related issues. Thus the parties had the opportunity to cover the weaknesses of their respective coalition-partner.
Maybe soon then they’ll stop the Islamization of Germany with the rest of Europe following suit. Liberty and freedom are what will save Europe from demographic death as free people who keep more of their income than the state confiscates are better able to afford to raise the next generation. A next generation they will desperately need to pay for their overly generous welfare state. Better Germans than Turks.
Now that the United States is being run by a crew with the diplomatic instincts and sophistication of a college dorm bull session conducted by a bunch of stoned sophomores, Europeans are realizing that they cannot depend on Uncle Sam to be the adult who will keep them safe while they shout snide remarks and insults from the sidelines.
For years I have been hearing Europeans disparage the born again cowboy from Texas while they longed for somebody very much like Obama to be President. Now that it has happened, they seem somewhat less delighted with our feckless naif in the White House. Sometimes it is not so much fun to get what you wish for.
Is the US going to have a Frau President too?
I admire the Germans, so smart as always! and in the meantime, here in the US, we are de-developing, courtesy of the Obama voters!
Just so I’m not mistaken (see my comment #1), I think Andrea Merkel rocks! Her and I are very much on the same page politically. You all can get caught up in the labels. In the end, it doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice.
venividivici says (#20) that, “all the US right has to really do is wait out the clock.” I almost thought I would blow my lunch on that one! Either he is delusional or ignorant. Actually, that’s all the American left has to do with regard to demographics is wait out the clock. The conservative base is declining. Old white conservatives are dying off. As they die off they are being systematically replaced one by one with energetic young liberals and people of color (who can still reproduce). That’s not an opinion but a demographic fact. However, he is correct in that “when you nationalize health-care you end up with a permanent center-left political spectrum.” The entire center of political gravity is about to be shifted in a very big way. The GOP of the future will emerge much more along the lines of what we see with the Susan Collins, Olympia Snow, and Christine Todd Whitmans of the GOP. Conservatives are in their death rattles. The old conservative bulls with their religion and dishonest opportunistic patriotism will be relegated to the dustbin of political history very soon. What a great time to be an American! We’re seeing political realignment and history in action.
Merkel – The new Maggie Thatcher?
@ the trolls:
There is no such thing as Obama’s support in Germany. There are polls that say that the majority of Germans think it’s right to SAY they support Obama. But any attempt to promote Obama-mania in German MSM dies the next day. Nobody likes Obama in the EU. Nobody wears t-shirts with his face, nowhere in Europe. Not only in Germany. He comes to Europe and they have to organize an artificial crowd for him, because there are not enough natural supporters. Everybody in the Western Europe SAYs (s)he likes him, nobody REALLY likes him. Try to watch any French or Italian or German TV chanel – NOBAMA. Even if he’s “somewhere there”, in Europe. People doesn’t want to see him (nor his “glamorous” wife). Euros don’t like him. That’s why his open dislike of (and very rude behaviour towards) Angie Merkel has turned to her advantage. SURPRISE!
This is the clock that will destroy the Obamanation and all his moronic SOCIALIST moonbat supporters.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
The US economy continues to contract the US debt is spiraling out of control the Dollar is sinking like a stone on International Exchanges and what do the moronic left wing moonbats want to do why create MORE debt MORE Government control MORE Porkulus. Lets hope the USA impeaches this moron before he has destroyed it.
Earth to Praetorian, Conservatives out reproduce Leftwingers.
That is across all races and creeds.
The Left needs to control the education system to indoctrinate other peoples kids…else they die out of their own accord.
Latinos are naturally Conservative Christians (mildly Catholic Paternalistic Welfare Statish) and African Americans while problematic are largely Christian Conservatives as well.
So without the Left stoking divisive identity politics…things will simmer down nicely over here.
The key is to take back schools, unis, and the media (media is already underway.)
The Baby Boomers have been a dissaster for Western Civiliztion, however they will be dying off the next 20 years or so….and their hatefilled anti Western racist sexist groupist political claptrap as well.
What they are puting the Europeans through right now will discredit them and have them afraid to speak openly in public their treasonous poison, soon enough.
This discrediting will affect the US as well.
Im pretty positive and confident about Western Civilization waking up and reasserting itself in the next 30 years or so.
Thank the Lord we did not get a communist-green governement!
This means the next 4 years germany will stay a reliable ally. But dont expect miracles, Germany will stay a semi-sozialist state. Germans have become too used to the nanny state. On the other hand, dont worry. The communists hate Israel, the FDP, although having some muslim functionaries in their ranks, is largely Israel-supporting.
To put things in order, the new German governement can be compared to the “blue dog democrats” in the US.
But yes, Obama is popular here. Because all the leftist-leaning Press worships him, and you will have to search long to find any critical reporting on him. We have no Fox news and no Talk radio.
Maybe later I write more about the elections here. I voted FDP. And this time I was on the winning side. But be careful. As Marina already told you liberal in Europe does not mean liberal in the american sense always but sometimes it does. You find classical liberals (conservatives at least in terms of economics) and modern liberals (left wing culture relativists) in the FDP. Their chairman Guido Westerwelle is tending more in direction of classical liberalism (he knows and understands Hayek). But we will see. And Angela Merkel how sweet she may appear is not Margaret Thatcher. Not at all. She was born and raised in the communist DDR and she is still not an anticommunist by heart. She is a reconcilator but also a modern liberal in essence. Sorry. And like Obama she has not a clue about economics. Maybe Guido will help her out. But maybe she will not let him. About foreign politics you need not to worry. Angie and Guido know that they need the USA, with or without Obama. And the main Israel basher from the FDP (Möllemann) jumped some years ago out of a plane without opening his parachute. And as Marina says about the Obama reception: “Everybody in the Western Europe SAYs (s)he likes him, nobody REALLY likes him”. This is funny. Obama is really not big news here. But I am not sure if this is not the result of an underlying strong current of ignorance, dislike and even hate towards the USA together with the fact that Obama is not the ideal concept of the enemy as Bush was.
I have to agree with the above #21 that FDP – like the then-ruling CDU/SPD – “welcoming” the winner of the 2008 USA elections.
FDP is free market oriented. PERIOD.
It’s not just talk…they’ve just been out of power since, when, Helmut Kohl?!
The “twist” in Germany is that they base their politics on a “social” marketplace.
That does not automatically/necessarily mean socialist system…REMEMBER that.
What would be a real ground-shaker is is the FDP were successful in convincing the political culture in Germany that sometimes, the most “social” (i.e. beneficial to the population) approach for a federal government to take is to leave the people alone to their own devices, rather than eternally Nannying-up the State.
If anyone is in a position to do this, it’s the FDP.
France moves to the right, Canada moves right, Germany moves right… hmm… Seems like a pattern.
Anyone that thinks conservatism is dead in the US probably believe there were only 30K people in DC on 9/12…
Obviously very much out of touch with reality!
25
venividivici says (#20) that, “all the US right has to really do is wait out the clock.” I almost thought I would blow my lunch on that one! Either he is delusional or ignorant. Actually, that’s all the American left has to do with regard to demographics is wait out the clock. The conservative base is declining. Old white conservatives are dying off. As they die off they are being systematically replaced one by one with energetic young liberals and people of color (who can still reproduce). That’s not an opinion but a demographic fact.
First, you make two assumptions. That the country is getting younger. Not so. The median age in the US (and the entire Western world) is climbing. I don’t know what definition of “fact” you’ve been using all your life, but it’s the wrong one.
http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aa051801a.htm
I suspect the 2010 Census will show another rise to a new record. So long as that median age is climbing, the median voter is getting older, i.e. more conservative.
Secondly, you assume that by the time non-whites come to be the dominant demographic, some time in the late part of the 21st century, the welfare/entitlement state won’t have collapsed. Not so, it will already have done its version of “Humpty Dumpty” and all the non-whites’ in the world will be able to put it back together again. In fact, non-whites will probably be one of the most conservative/small government groups out there, especially Hispanics. Why? Because most entitlement spending benefits the old (who will be white Baby Boomers) at the expense of the young (who will be Hispanic). Plus, with the Boomers out of their producing years and into their consuming years, there won’t be as many whites to support the entitlement payments or transfer payments from worker age person to worker age person. So, rather than using racial guilt to prompt white to support those programs, those non-whites will just be taking money from successful non-whites and putting it into the pockets of unsuccessful non-whites via the Federal government. Somehow, that strikes me as something the successful non-whites won’t like. That is just basic human nature, having nothing to do with race. They’ll have an even worse problem in Europe, where the younger Muslim population will feel little impetus to support the promises made to the dying native population.
As you can see, I’m neither delusional nor ignorant. I simply don’t analyze things in the same simplistic terms you do.
Socialism is using the power of government to confiscate property from one person to bestow on another whatever benefits seem to make the government popular. It kilss incentive, and promotes mediocrity.
Socialism is compelling one to person to comform to another’s idea of compassion. It is compulsion disguised as compassion. It suppresses real compassion, and puts an impostor in its place.
A good government would simply defend its people, uphold the rule of law in an equitable manner, and favor no business over another. Let competition be fierce, but ensure that it is fair – this will bring the highest level of freedom and prosperity. Inequalities will probably always exist, but the truly free market rewards the producer instead of the politically-connected, and when the producer is rewarded, the multitudes benefit.
If only 49.9% voted for the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats – than most German voters actually voted for parties that don’t aspire to Friedman’s right wing capitalist rubbish.
36
So, which post-Friedman school of economics do you NOT consider rubbish, because Friedman pretty much wiped the floor with every school of economics prior to him. So what’s your economic paradigm? Anything that relies on economics prior to Friedman is obsolete.
You and the rest of the Left need to get that through your thick, nostalgic skulls.
venividivici writes, “First, you make two assumptions. That the country is getting younger.”
No I did not make that assumption. What I said is that the old conservative white base of the GOP is dying off. The base of the Democratic Party, by contrast, is younger, and for lack of a better term, browner. It’s doubtful they will be switching their alliances any time soon. It is true, however, that many hispanics, for instance, are conservative on social issues. However, the Democratic Party has figured quite well that economic issues trump social ones every time. In the end, food on the table is far more important than the two old women down the street who want to get married. So, becoming more conservative as one gets older may be the case with certain white demographics (not any that I know) but it is not the case with others such as Latinos and Asians. Your analysis of the data does not read between the lines and your assumption that hispanics become more conservative is not based in any facts at all. It’s totally wrong. Delusional or ignorant one might say.
Also, your assumptions about entitlement spending are nothing more than looking into a crystal ball and seeing what you want to see. Social Security and MediCare have faced problems before and they have been solved before. All in all I would say that your analysis is wishful thinking. Wishing for bad things to happen to good people. That is the conservative mindset. Pretty sad.
So, becoming more conservative as one gets older may be the case with certain white demographics (not any that I know) but it is not the case with others such as Latinos and Asians.
Yes, because only white people throughout history have become more conservative with age, which is why the countries from which all of those folks emigrate are run by aging hippy liberals. Give me a break. Talk about wishful thinking.
What I said is that the old conservative white base of the GOP is dying off.
You can’t have two things simultaneously be true that contradict each other. The old conservative white base of the GOP can’t be dying off and the country be getting older as a whole. Also, even at the height of the 60′s “youth rebellion” most Baby Boomers called themselves conservative. They are simply not the noisy ones.
Wishing for bad things to happen to good people.
The only thing I have every “wished” for politically was for people I don’t know or care about to leave me alone. I’m not interested in your failings in life (and you must be a failure, otherwise why would you want something that is someone else’s? That’s not a natural emotion for a successful person to have. That envious mindset is far, far sadder than anything I’ve encountered among conservatives) and how they somehow “obligate” me to help you.
Social Security and MediCare have faced problems before and they have been solved before.
Yes, because we all know that trends that are unsustainable never come to an end, which is why the Roman Empire never ended and European colonialism is still going strong. Crack open a history book, will ya? There isn’t enough capital in the world to fund these programs at the levels promised nor enough willing lenders (hint, the Chinese are already worried and the Boomers aren’t even drawing a big chunk of the amount of Medicare they’ll ultimately be drawing on), unless you want to do a one-shot “We’re taking everything you own and using it for Medicare and Social Security benefits” deal. In which case, that’ll pretty much be the end of human history and complete “law of the jungle” anarchy will ensue. Of course, the Left can’t think that far ahead, which is why trying to warn you is a mug’s game.
Also, your assumptions about entitlement spending are nothing more than looking into a crystal ball and seeing what you want to see.
Look, I went to business school and studied finance and, although I am not an actuary, I have worked with many of them and have probably forgotten more about forecasting long-term assets and liabilities than you’ve ever known or ever will know. You can say I’m “seeing what I want to see” all you want. The numbers don’t lie. My entire way of viewing politics is based strictly on numbers. I don’t have “emotions” about politics any more than I do about a marketing problem I might have to solve. My analysis is completely dispassionate.
38. You make another faulty assumption that the young people won’t change allegiances any time soon. They’ll change their minds when they get a full time job, get married, and start having kids, which would be over the course of the next ten years for the current crop of college students. Once they see for themselves how things really work, all of a sudden the socialist propaganda loses its support.
“You can’t have two things simultaneously be true that contradict each other. The old conservative white base of the GOP can’t be dying off and the country be getting older as a whole. Also, even at the height of the 60’s “youth rebellion” most Baby Boomers called themselves conservative. They are simply not the noisy ones.”
Your assuming that the country as a whole is getting more conservative as the general population ( meaning everyone) gets older. This golden oldie is put forth by neocons frequently but it’s garbage. It’s wrong and what I said is not a contradiction. Break the data down. Again, while it may be true with certain demographics (i.e. the ones that are dying off) it isn’t true with others (the ones that are reproducing). You seem to agree with this and if you know anything about numbers you would know that the numbers don’t lie (regardless of what you or I think about them). This doesn’t not bode well for conservative politics down the road.
As far as your comments about entitlement spending are concerned, they seem to be rooted in demographic trends. Those trends, as they have throughout history, go up and down. Problems arise and problems are solved.
Also, myth buster. More wishful thinking. You should talk to veni about numbers. Young people 18 to 25 voted for Obama and the Democrats 2 to 1. Studies indicate (numbers, that is) that the party a person casts their first vote for is the party they overwhelmingly stay with for life. You guys lost an entire generation. We won’t even get into the minority vote, both very dismal for the GOP. The real issue you should be addressing is how you will win them back? College educated voters will be especially hard for the GOP.
Everything you guys have said seem to be ‘wishful’ projections not based on any past historical trends or data. Unless you see something coming down the pike we’ve never seen before I’m inclined to base my opinions on past trends, trends that have had their share of problems no doubt but, nevertheless, solvable. I guess that’s the difference between conservatives and liberals. Conservatives are negative and see the worst in human nature. Liberals are optimistic and see the better side of human nature and the potential to overcome any hurdle.
Anyway, this post was about Andrea Merkel and my original point was she is no conservative.
To think that Social Security and the other entitlements, if left unchecked, will not eventually bankrupt the country is to wallow in wishful thinking.
If the socialists really do get their way in the U.S. and utterly rout the conservatives, the economy will become such a shamble, taxes and inflation so high, regulation so pervasive, that people will have to face the true fruits of their Utopian schemes, general misery become so prevalent except among the party bosses. If the most extreme of the libertines get their way and totally wipe away all of the traditional forms of moral restraint, there will be so much sickness and social enervation that people will become utterly incapable of rousing themselves to action in the face of emergency. With no conservatives left, there will be none to blame.
Something like the former happened in the Soviet Union, and it imploded. Something like the latter happened in ancient Rome, and all the praetorians couldn’t save the enervated emperor or the empire.
38
He also didn’t address my point that as the white proportion of the population decreases, funding of those liberal programs he loves so much will fall on non-whites. Unless they’ve got some kind of human nature that is different from whites (which you’d have to be racist to believe, from what I’ve been told my whole life) THEY WILL NOT LIKE THIS and this alone will push them to the smaller-government side of the aisle. I don’t care what color you are, people like to keep their own money once they’ve earned it. Period.
Your assuming that the country as a whole is getting more conservative as the general population ( meaning everyone) gets older.
I’m not assuming it, I’ve been watching it happen my entire adult life. Go back and read the stories about Kennedy and Nixon almost agreeing to universal health care back in the early 70′s or read about Nixon’s famous “we are all Keynesians” statement. Those sorts of things are almost completely off the table now. First, it’s partially because the country is getting older, but, and I think this is just as important, it is because more people have interacted with government and found it lacking. Liberals do a f-ing great job of promising things and the delivery is, shall we say, lackluster. It’s also why Obama had to pay homage to Reagan, even though in his Marxist mind I’m sure he thinks Reagan was a neo-imperialist stooge or whatever outdated terminology Marxists are using these days.
As far as your comments about entitlement spending are concerned, they seem to be rooted in demographic trends. Those trends, as they have throughout history, go up and down. Problems arise and problems are solved.
http://www.scrivener.net/2007/06/bastiat-never-even-heard-of-social.html
http://www.scrivener.net/2008/05/how-much-will-income-taxes-have-to-go.html
http://www.scrivener.net/2008/09/can-economic-growth-head-off-coming.html
Also, check out what the former Comptroller of the Currency (Ooooh, doesn’t his title alone make him sound like a mean old conservative? I bet he’s white, too!) has to say about entitlements. There is no solution, other than repudiation of the promises made by politicians OR tax rates so high they kill the economy (I know you think that’s another “conservative myth”, but reality will teach you otherwise soon enough).
Conservatives are negative and see the worst in human nature. Liberals are optimistic and see the better side of human nature and the potential to overcome any hurdle.
This is just stupid and exactly what I would expect from a moronic kid who hadn’t actually been out in the world. I’m negative toward sh*t that makes no sense or that is contrary to human nature or that subtracts value from my life. You can pretend that leftists are all about a shiny new tomorrow and rainbows, but the historical record of the hard Left is ridiculously bloody. You talk about basing your views on historical data, well where does that historical data fit into your model?
#42 = more conservative scare tactics, more doom and gloom because we don’t like the new lipstick you keep putting on the same old pig.
Typical, really. When hard working American families realize that they need to act and vote in their own economic interests conservatives simply drag out the doom and gloom bandwagon (instead of bending over and grabbing their ankles like you). Americans don’t like what your selling anymore. What the hell are you gonna do about it?
It’s gonna be a rough eight years for venividivici. All we have to do is outnumber you. That’s easy. We reproduce. You don’t. A lot of bitterness in his comments. This is why you guys keep losing elections. People just don’t like you.
veni also used the past tense with regard to ‘having’ worked with actuaries. Like many on this board and typical of conservatives in general he’s probably retired, sitting comfortably at home is his bunny slippers, leeching off of those bad socialist guvmint programs like Social Security and MediCare. The irony of it all.
If you strip the people of Christianity then they will revert to old ethnic tribalisms. Especially since that is being promoted in the schools and unis, in the media and the Establishment Leftwing zeitgeist.
The end result of that will not be pleasant.
The Left is an amalgamation of vile ideas and actions, couched in Orwellian double speak.
All we have to do is outnumber you. That’s easy. We reproduce. You don’t.
Get a hold of the article “The Return of Patriarchy” by Phillip Longman, originally published in Foreign Policy in 2006. The data you need to understand is in there. The title gives the conclusion away.
veni also used the past tense with regard to ‘having’ worked with actuaries.
I primarily do project-based work. I am not working on any projects with actuaries at the moment, hence the past tense.
People just don’t like you.
People in general like me just fine. *ssholes tend to not like me at all. I’m guessing you fall into the latter category.
Americans don’t like what your selling anymore.
You need to get yourself over to 538.com and tell Nate Silver he can stop worrying about the 2010 elections, then, because he’s almost on the verge of calling it a “wave election”, given the way the polls are shaping up. Hurry, now, little man, go cheer Nate up and tell him the mean old white GOP’s nothing to be afraid of. You libs have been popping out babies left and right (well, maybe not “right”) since 1992 gearing up for this midterm fight, haven’t you?
You are an ignorant little man.
RE #27/Marina: [...] There is no such thing as Obama’s support in Germany. There are polls that say that the majority of Germans think it’s right to SAY they support Obama. [...]
“Under the spreading chestnut tree, I sold you, and you sold me” – remember the little poem that closes Orwell’s 1984?
Well, it looks like while obedience, poitical alignment and uncritical thinking were achieved in Orwell’s Oceania through a mixture of control, persuasion, intimidation and, if necessary by vile brutality, in our times the process has became simpler.
It’s called political correctness, a comprehensive, pervasive psychological mesh that controls and paralyses people’s critical spirit, and forces them to participate in vast public ceremonies of homagial Tai Chi, just to prove to others (and themselves) their orthodoxy and elightenment.
Bertolt Brecht’s 3rd. Reich, then the Communist regimes – it is truly amazing to see how otherwise normal people, suddenly change their composure if a “certain” issue is mentioned around them, how they stridently take righteous positions, call for heresy inquiry & stoning and, at the faintest prompt or warning, jump in mass, Tai Chi ceremonies to display their fidelity to the great cause & the Luminous Leader.
3rd. Reich? Soviet Union as described by Soljenytzin? Ceaucescu’s Romania? Our days N. Korea?
All of them, yet softly emerging as America and Western Europe, where people, upon challenging, quickly begin to pound their chest and bleat slogans that satisfy the ThoughtPolice –
Results: we sure are heading towards the world evoked by Orwell, where “Under the spreading chestnut tree, I sold you and you sold me…”
The greatest achieveTai Chi
RE: #41/Praetorian:
Buddy, the latest Rassmunsen poll shows Obama’s Health thing nosediving at 41% favor vs. 56% oppose – so what you describe as a freeing light at the end of the tunnel are actually the two freighters, the 2010 and the 2012 elections hurtling towards the Democrat Party.
And this proves, times and again that people have began to wake up – “Honey, I don’t buy snake oil anymore, Ok?”
As far as your contortions on demographics, that’s an act for a freak show – Praetorian, all stats in the world talk about how industrial/post-industrial nations are GREYING, i.e. the percentage older/younger grows on the side of the older.
Also, Praetorian, maybe it’s news for you, but when people get older they tend to travel to conservative positions – this meaning, Praetorian, that the larger society as a whole is irreversibly trending CONSERVATIVE, fool.
Then, “Those trends, as they have throughout history, go up and down. Problems arise and problems are solved.”
Thanks god, Praetorian is here with the good news!
Fool, there isn’t such a thing like “kind of pregnant”, social and other problems are seldom resolved (and never by the political left), they’re just POSTPONED OR MANAGED, ’till wars and brutal interraction settles the score for a while – then the carousel starts again –
Now your idiocy regarding the young people’s voting – I’ll limit myself at evoking today’s %50 unemployment amongst post-teens & youth, fact for which both LEFT & RIGHT SQUARELY & RIGHTFULLY CREDITS OBAMA’S PORKULUS FOR, and now I’ll give you the chance to make a fool of yourself (time and again) by showing us how mighty lefty those youth will vote (if they’ll ever do it) in the next elections.
Then, “I guess that’s the difference between conservatives and liberals. Conservatives are negative and see the worst in human nature. Liberals are optimistic and see the better side of human nature and the potential to overcome any hurdle.”
Heavens, Praetorian, can’t you come with just a simple, correct assessment? How’s that? It’s the left who want to control, direct and muzzle everything in society, it’s the left who don’t trust people and want them corralled – is this an optimistic view of the human nature? (And since here, and because you like to quote stats, the studies have also shown that conservatives are uniformly happier and optomistiker than liberals & lefties, who are simply a collection of bitter, envious & vindictive nags – and also studies have clearly shown that conservatives are much better at sex that liberals & lefties, because they don’t mix things, when it comes to sex, it’s sex and not a lammenting session about global heating or the disparition of the pink-dotted whistling snails from Tobriand. (Since I am pretty sure that you’ve been constantly dumped, you may want to study my hint and review your foreplay practices – no, Praetorian, neither Algore videos or deforestation poetry won’t do it).
And conversely, conservatives are the ones that have a positive view of human nature, they are largely laissez faire types. Enterprise, prospere, fail, then succeeed – great. BUT, liberal scum, die if this is your choice – but don’t try to bill me for what you do, comprende?
“Anyway, this post was about Andrea Merkel and my original point was she is no conservative.”
Angela, not Andrea – as positions are on the European political spectrum, Merkel is a CONSERVATIVE. And as a former slave of DDR, that superb realm of freedom and enlightenment, when she looks for some inspiring guiding lights, be sure that they are Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, and not your exalted constellation of Stalin, Guevara, Castro, Yagoda, Mumia Jabal, Bill Ayres and Barack Obama.
And to conclude this by examining another pearl of yours – man, why should the GOP waste its time & money trying to add college buffoons like you in the movement? Isn’t a great thing that the Democrats have to carry this discrediting cohort with them?
Hah! Nice ending, connecting Praetorian with the Democrat Party’s discrediting cohorts – style, bab’, style!
and cue up the “Baghdad-Bob-level-reality-denying-fool” in three…two…one..
Praetorian!!!1.44.45.46.
Praetorian..
…So the other day I take a straw poll of my three kids, and it was three thumbs down on Obama..I ask my five year old to kindly elucidate (gotta use them three dollar words early, you see) and he says “Obama is an idiot.” So there you have it, unless you’ve got three of your own your precious Commie movement is definitely on the ropes.
Praetorian,
Have you downloaded the song to your IPod yet? I bet you have…and I bet it is song one in the cue…
MMMMMM…MMMMMM…MMMMMM
“We reproduce. You don’t.”
You haven’t visited and LDS families have you?
Once younger kids grow up and are forced into the modern day slavery known a taxation they tend to move to the right rather quickly. Taxation is little different than slavery, except its the IRS holding the whip, and it will peal the meat off you faster than a leather strap.
Praetorian incorrect links conservatism to the GOP. The reason for the GOP’s recent failure is they moved to the left, and as a result conservatives abandoned them. Conservatives are still there in huge numbers, dont be a fool and link them with the GOP success or failure.
From Praetorian
“In the end, food on the table is far more important than the two old women down the street who want to get married.”
All one needs to do is compare California to Texas to see who is putting food on the table. Californias Dems have driven that once great state into the ground, I abandoned it 2 years ago as a result.
It always amuses me when liberals think they can win middle-class votes with economic issues. As Fraser Crane used to say, “What color is the sky in your world?”
Germany’s centre right politics would be considered communist in the US