German Race Tightens as Election Day Nears
Only six weeks away from election day but seven points behind in the polls, a desperate Schroeder in August 2002 suddenly announced that Germany would “not make itself available for an adventure” in Iraq. Tapping into the ingrained pacifism of millions of German voters, Schroeder’s poll numbers started ticking upwards. Schroeder responded by ratcheting up the anti-war rhetoric until it became the main theme of his campaign. And it worked: Schroeder was narrowly re-elected in September 2002.
Fast forward to September 2009, and Steinmeier, facing the prospect of being relegated to leader of the opposition, has started playing the Afghanistan card. On September 13, Steinmeier announced a 10-point plan proposing the withdrawal of German troops from Afghanistan. Although Steinmeier has not set a specific pullout date, a foreign ministry spokesman said it would be “a worthwhile aim over the next four years.”
And on September 22, in an interview on the German public television channel NDR, Steinmeier responded to a leaked report by the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, that more troops were needed there. Steinmeier said that Germany was “on the right path” so there was no need to discuss increasing troop numbers.
The conflict in Afghanistan moved to the center of Germany’s election campaign in early September, after a German commander ordered a NATO airstrike that killed dozens of civilians. Two tanker trucks seized by Taliban militants were targeted in the airstrike, killing scores of people in an area where International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops are under German command.
The attack, which the left-wing Der Spiegel called “the end of [German] innocence in Afghanistan,” prompted Schroeder, Steinmeier’s political mentor, to demand a pullout of all allied troops by 2015. Steinmeier reacted cautiously, saying a deadline for withdrawing troops “could be understood by the wrong people in Afghanistan as encouragement.” But on his campaign blog, Steinmeier wrote: “The German military in Afghanistan is not an occupying force and its job is not a permanent task.” Polls show that some 60 percent of German voters are opposed to German involvement in Afghanistan.
The other big issues in this year’s campaign have been the economy and nuclear power. In her last interview before election day, Merkel on September 24 told the center-left Frankfurter Rundschau that a tax-cutting alliance with the FDP “can best find a way out of the economic slump to growth and employment.”
Merkel says she hopes to spur economic growth by providing across-the-board tax cuts totaling 15 billion euros ($22 billion) over four years. She also wants to extend the lifespan of Germany’s 17 nuclear power plants, which the Schroeder government, caving in to demands from the Green Party, ordered closed by 2021.
By contrast, Steinmeier has taken the populist route. He says the best way forward is to establish a national minimum wage of 7.50 euros per hour and increase taxes on the wealthy. He has also called for global action on climate change, while at the same time (and without a hint of irony) saying he wants to build coal-fired power plants to replace nuclear power.
The classical liberal FDP, meanwhile, says it wants to completely replace the current tax system with what it calls the “beer coaster system,” so nicknamed for the size of the tax returns that Germans would have to fill out. The new tax code would replace the current graduated system with three rates of 10, 25 and 35 percent based on income. FDP leader Guido Westerwelle has also called for the removal of all U.S. nuclear weapons based in Germany by 2013.
According to the latest Politbarometer poll published by German public television channel ZDF, 61 percent of Germans would prefer Merkel to be the next chancellor, compared to 28 percent for Steinmeier. But by whittling away at Merkel’s lead, Steinmeier has greatly increased his chances of staying in power in a CDU-SPD coalition.
Although it could be weeks or even months before the contours of a new German government take shape, a grand coalition will limit the ability of either of the two biggest parties to implement major changes. If that happens, the course of German politics is likely to be as uneventful during the foreseeable future as it has been for the past four years.
Good analysis! Just let me add 2 points:
- Germany´s political spectrum is way more left-leaning to begin with. We have nationalized healthcare and a tax-and-spend governement. Here, Obama would be considered a centrist.
- Especially the SPD (social demokrats) in the last few years, due to growing pressure from the communist left party has moved a lot to the left, removing from power people like Schröder and Clement (his Minister for Econony) who, while being statists, had at least a realistic view of economy. If there is no CDU / FDP majority it is very probable that after a year of continuing the current coalition, the SPD will break it up and form a governement with the green party and the communist party.
With such a governement, you can forget about Germany as an military or political ally. The left hates the USA, hates Israel, hates free market. Taxes will go through the roof, as will unemployment.
Only good effect for the US: the qualified, hard working germans will look for a place to migrate.
I saw that every German TV station in its text news cited a report about the increase in posttraumatic stress disorder among soldiers returning from Afghanistan. Suddenly the lefties are concerned about members of the military. What hypocrisy! And the news reports treat the UNSC resolution about working to get rid of all nuclear weapons as if UN resolutions have some significance. I am pretty sure that Obama’s push on this resolution helps reinforce the pacifist sympathies already prevalent in Germany, as does Steinmeier’s perceived influence on Obama’s Russian policies.
It sure didn’t help either that the FDP – the only other serious partner for CDU – along with the Greens preemptively rejected the idea of a 3-way coalition (“Ampelkoalition”). Stupid, stupid, stupid.
So, at this point in time, the neo-Communists are gaining support (sigh…again?!), and yet there is a lack of decisiveness to move forward from the Big, Fat, Old CDU-SPD coalition which will set itself up for becoming even more of a target for derision in the eyes of the gullibe public from the neo-Communists.
It will be interesting to see if Germans nuckle under to the terrorist’s demands for their preferred outcome. Any bets?
I must disagree with #1:
Obama would be no centrist in Germany, but rather in the party die Linke : the former Communist Party of former East Germany. Gregor Gysi, like SOBama, also has a “smooooooth” way with words, and is no hothead like LaFontaine.
The combined reproductive rate for native Western European women is 1.4 children per woman. For Muslim women in the same countries, it’s 3.5 children per woman.
Here’s the order of healthiest fertility rates for Western European countries:
1) France
2) Netherlands
3) Belgium
4) Switzerland
5) Austria
6) Germany
7) Italy
8) Spain
And here’s the order with the highest proportion of Muslims:
1) France
2) Netherlands
3) Belgium
4) Switzerland
5) Austria
6) Germany
7) Italy
8) Spain
Western Europe is dead. Germany is dead. So who cares?
France : 2,2 64 millions inhabitants, 3,2 millions muslims in age of procreating, among them African muslims
95% of the 2008 birth rate was attribuated to french normal population,
Muslims Arabs that live in France from 3 or 2 generations don’t make much children than the average French, while still Africans immigrant have a high rate, due to their numerous wives for some parts, and that children making are their revenue famillial allocations.
Apart the African specifity,It’s only new immigrants that still have more children
for those that can read french, a funny article about red shoes in a mosquee :
“Une paire de talons aiguilles rouges a provoqué la colère des musulmans”
http://bit.ly/RXCAX
RVSTAR My sentiments exactly;Spain has imploded.Look at the clown they elected,A Mr. Bean lookalike,with Obama’s mindset.
I’m not as worried about Germany as an military or political ally but I actually think that Germany will or has already allied with Putin and Germany will pull the EU into that alliance.
I’m of the thinking that we are witnessing the new rise of the German National Socialism Party aka the Holy Roman Empire. The Germans and Russians will carve up Eastern Europe and the Balkins and eventually go to war with each other…..read revelations.
More spooky than likely, #9 WestWright.
Germany – like lots of Central and Western Europe – is dependent upon Russia’s natural gas and oil (with Gerhard Schröder being the wh*re go-between).
That’s nasty enough.
Then there’s Russia’s/USSR’s record of aggression on the continent.
If there’s any “carving” to do, I suspect Russia would not bother with such a small-fry player (tut mir leid, aber wahr…) like Germany.