Gasoline Shortage in Iran Threatens Regime
The problems keep piling up for the Iranian regime. It has lost its very important backers in the bazaars who went on strike to protest a massive tax increase. In the most underreported Iran-related story, workers continue to go on strikes at factories around the country. Now, the regime is facing a gasoline shortage that is causing even more angst among the populace.
The fear of penalties from the U.S. and Europe is causing Western businesses to flee. Banks aren’t giving loans, and dozens of shipping vessels can’t get insurance. On July 26, Reuters reported that only three cargoes of gasoline had arrived for the month — coming from Turkey and China — and a fourth was expected to arrive soon from Venezuela. Between 11 and 13 cargoes of gasoline normally arrive during this time of year, so this is a major drop.
Security forces have been deployed to major gas stations to prevent them from becoming scenes of discontent. On July 23, there were clashes in Tehran when those waiting in a long line at Roosevelt Gas Station greeted the security forces by shouting “Death to dictatorship.” On July 18, citizens angry at high fuel prices booed the security forces at a station on Mosadegh Street in Tehran, sparking clashes. Other gas stations are rationing their supply because of the shortage, resulting in very long lines that turn into public expressions of dissatisfaction. Some aren’t even operating. Half-hour long lines are being reported around Tehran and in other places such as Tabriz.
Some workers at stations are complaining that they are receiving tainted gasoline that causes two to three percent of the substance to evaporate. The government is reportedly fining them for using poor quality gas — when the government is responsible for delivering it. Additionally, this is all happening while there are intermittent electrical shortages in Tehran. These shortages in electricity and financing are causing some factories to close for weeks at a time.
Scattered protests by workers continue, and they are sure to grow as the high gas prices take a toll on the people. At one factory in Tehran, up to 400 employees are said to have been fired over the past five months. The workers say their jobs have been given to friends of government officials. Predictably, security forces were sent to the scene and high-level officials came to mediate, promising the workers they’d get paid within 15 days. The workers knew it was a gimmick and are threatening to release documents exposing government corruption.
At the same time, nearly 200 workers are protesting in Qazvin because they haven’t been paid in six months.
I am unsure of the bazaars’ current status, but as of July 21, the bazaar in Tehran was open but described as “inactive.” The merchants are being forced to sign an agreement to pay 15 percent more in taxes, with an additional 15 percent penalty for those that refuse. The forms require personal information like home phone numbers the regime can use to track and punish those that challenge the tax increase. Those in power are definitely worried about the bazaars and know they won’t forget the abuses their thugs delivered to them during the recent strike.
The problem for the regime is that there is no short-term solution to the gas crisis, and all of the conflicts are interconnected and exacerbate each other. The discontent will fuel the political activists. The rising fuel prices will cause more workers to be fired or go unpaid just as they face increasing need for income. The bazaar merchants will be hurt as customers become cash-strapped, the cost of products increase, and they have to pay 15 percent more in taxes to the regime that uses violence and intimidation against them. The regime can try to ration the gasoline and reduce subsidies, but the last time that was tried, in 2007, it resulted in burning gas stations.
The regime is moving quickly to try to close the window of time with which the opposition and the West can exploit this vulnerability. It has signed a $6.5 billion deal with the Chinese company Sinopec to build refineries; it plans to build a pipeline that can deliver gas to Turkey that it hopes to finish in three years; and it is hoping to double the production of gasoline by 2012. The International Energy Agency says Iran can reduce their imports by 75 percent by 2015 by expanding their production and getting rid of subsidies — but the decreasing number of fuel providers will be a major obstacle.
The Revolutionary Guards had to back out of the South Pars gas field that could bring in an additional $130 billion per year, as well as two other refinery projects. They knew it would be tough to find foreign investors for an IRGC venture, and these bold plans will have to be delayed or canceled without foreign investment. The attitude change of the United Arab Emirates is another blow to the regime, as half of Iran’s gasoline imports arrive through its territory and the country is a major trading partner.
The U.S. needs to act quickly to let any company involved in this effort know they will be sanctioned and will lose more money than they gain if they make this unwise business decision. Congress is pushing the Obama administration hard on this, but the president wants the legislation to allow him to shield companies in countries that have begun cooperating with us.
More sanctions are probably on the way. If the West wants to really stick it to the mullahs, it can target the source of about 90 percent of the regime’s export money: oil sales. One report says exports will have to end to meet rising demand inside the country by 2015.
This is not a bump in the road for the regime. The gasoline crisis is not going to end anytime soon and is going to become exponentially worse. It will be years before the regime begins decreasing its reliance upon imports, and the more time passes by, the more demand will grow. As demand grows, the regime will have to decrease its oil exports, ration gasoline, and carry the political hot potato of reducing subsidies.
The regime is on an unsustainable path and no company should be permitted to help them change that.
At the same time, the more the mullahs are cornered, the more dangerous they become.
Therefore, it makes infinite sense for Israel to go for their throats while they are busy fending off internal wrath, and to not allow the mullahs the opportunity to deflect their internal problems by implementing their own preemption.
Truth be told, Israel is in a death dance with Iran. The one who offers the opening shot will most likely come out the victor.
The Iranian leadership could very well attack Israel if it believes the end of its power is near. These mullahs might think there is nothing to lose—and that God will have all those virgins waiting for them in the hereafter.
David, one small problem. See 1 Kings 18 then read the rest of the story. Allah may not be available, like Baal, when the 450 prophets needed him. ++ Re 20:9 And they went up on the breadth of the earth, and compassed the camp of the saints about, and the beloved city: and fire came down from God out of heaven, and devoured them. ++ Note: This is what a real God says he will do and I do not doubt.
Oil Rich Iran has no gasoline??? Allah the Moon-god will surly take care of the small problem for the Mullahs.
“Obama administration hard on this, but the president wants the legislation to allow him to shield companies in countries that have begun cooperating with us.”
Obama is ever the shakedown artist.
Sounds like the U.S. In a few years!
My sentements, exactly,Peg. Obama may not think trigonometry is consistent but try varying the third element without changing one or both of the others.
Under “normal” circumstances, the perfect storm against the regime would cause the folks to rally around its nominal leaders. But these circumstances are anything but normal. The regime has alienated both domestic and foreign forces. This pushes it into an insular position, with desperate prospects. They might think the time has come to pull the 12th Imam out of the well! I hope the rope is not long enough.
Oh lordy the joy of seeing the middle east implode would be tremendous!! Dangerous people.
I think perhaps Obama is the 12th imam
k.c. my personal enemy had stumbled and I was all set to rejoice when I read these verses:
Pr 24:17 ¶ Rejoice not when thine enemy falleth, and let not thine heart be glad when he stumbleth:
18 Lest the LORD see it, and it displease him, and he turn away his wrath from him. ++
I can’t say that I hated him or had done anything to generate that enmity but that I was an obstacle to something he wanted. Then I was sad because he was my enemy when he should have been my friend. These people are not our enemies because they are Iranian or because they are Arbs or what ever. They are our enemies because of what they have chosen to believe and that can change, not that it will change but that it can change. In the meantime, are we walking in a way that we are worthy of that friendship. We also can change and take the wrong path as we are doing under the present circumstances. If we follow the path set before us with the light of truth to show the way then the rest will fall in its proper place.
That’s a verse that I’ve been thinking of lately. My hope is that the right people do not laugh when the liberals take a fall. It is understandable that God would be angry with people who laugh at the fall of an enemy when 2 minutes before they were in all seriousness about the direness of that problem.
To a rational people this would make sense. The people of Islam/Muslims are not rational…and we must deal with them the best way we can without being destroyed in the process
Americans are without a doubt the greatest people on earth, period. Right now I think we are being pushed down the wrong political path. Obama is a bad president, congress is dishonest, and Muslims are killing our people, it’s difficult to be accepting at this point.
I do not believe in the bible as the word of god, but I understand what you are saying.
Well, it is not something I alone have formed in my thinking. It originates with trusting in the Bible as true. In fact, since I began believing in the Word of God from cover to cover (since I realized that there was no reason to distrust it and also that it is never wrong) I was automatically more wise. How do I qualify ‘automatically’? Only by my own observation.
You do well to remember Proverbs in this.
There is also a tension between reproving the leaders of Iran for their foolishness, and loving them. It would not be love for the people of Iran for the US to help their oppressors, nor would be be love for the US (or Israel) to deal massive violence (as it would have to be) to the people of Iran for the foolishness of their leaders.
The people of Iran are locked in a struggle for their souls. The longer the corruption of the IRG and Mullahs is made apparent, the more turn away from Islam and seek truth. This should be apparent to everyone, even if you personally do not believe truth exists–then consider the Iranian people to be turning away from bondage to Islam, and toward freedom for their minds.
It is very possible for the desperate, foolish leadership of Iran to turn toward war as a distraction. They are probably praying continuously that their country will be attacked, so they can lead the Islamic world in its response against the West and Israel. It would be the height of folly to give into this prayer of theirs. Even if Iran has the bomb, and were to use it on Israel, it would lose while Israel would survive (wounded, yes, but survive). A first strike by any Western party, however, will do more damage to Israel than a nuke–the world now is very different from 1981 when Iraq’s reactor was wiped out.
Instead, as the author suggests, the US path must be for strong economic action. This, coupled with planning for how to support the people of Iran with words, and emergency aid once the existing order is toppled. To be a friend to someone, it at times is necessary to let them pass through the fire of their own mistake, in order to dust them off and support them when they are ready to accept the help. I think the analogy holds between the US (and Israel) and Iran at this time.
–JC
David, there may be a problem. It may not be Allah that answers the proper call. See 1 Kings 18 then read the whole story. In the meantime this seems to be a very good forecast of Obamacare.
I’m willing to aid Iran with its gasoline shortage. I have a can of gasoline I’d like to contribute. Can anyone point me to the nearest Iranian consulate?
You can toss it into the back of my Ford with a can of my Turkish Gas and we can drive together from here.
As usual, the regime is going to be overthrown any second now because of this.
Factoid, the last time a Mullah was able to get a taxi was before that took power. The public has hated them since they took power.
The bad guys got the guns and organization, capice.
The only power capable of overthrowing them is the US and only through invasion. And the US is so afraid of what a bunch of 2 bit terror organizations (Hamas and Hezbollah) will do it would sooner surrender than fight (at least under Obama).
So what is this, prediction number twenty-five that the regime is about to fall? One of these times (like a prediction of our economy collapsing) it will be correct…but when?
Usually, when we least expect it, eh?
As for gas lines; been there, done that. I recall occasionally stopping to siphon gas out of parked cars, just to make it home, since all gas stations were closed at night.
The trump card in all this could be the goon, Hugo Chavez. Suppose he cut’s off oil supplies to the US and reroutes them to Iran? They’re “brothers in arms” now…or so the freak said.
Besides…he’d love nothing more than to tweak our noses and rail against the “great Satan and the Imperialist” aggression against the wonderful mullahs.
Some people would be joyous over the idea of Iranian people turning against their government ;but,this could make it an even more dangerous situation,basic politics is that you create a common enemy and then that unites the people to support government policy ,people then forget who the real enemy is,I believe this could force the Iranian government who would become quite desperate in the near future to hold onto power to preempt an attack on Israel or the USA.
Its a catch 22 situation for the UN ,what do you do????,the USA is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
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