Fun with Numbers: CBO Estimates from Wonderland
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has released its “score” on the reconciliation fixes the House wants to pass and send along to the Senate. The exhausted green-eyeshade guys who have been slaving away these many months probably wish they were being paid by the hour, given the “100-hour weeks” that their boss, Doug Elmendorf, claims they’ve all been working to satisfy the Democrats and their ever-changing health care plans.
The raw numbers, on the surface, are being cheered on the Democratic side of the aisle. The combination Senate bill/reconciliation fixes clocks in at a “cost” of $940 billion over 10 years with a “savings” to the budget of $138 billion. The reason I have “cost” and “savings” in quotes is because the numbers are based on premises that only Lewis Carroll could love. For it appears that the CBO made a trip to Wonderland in order to come up with “costs” and “savings” that bear such little semblance to reality.
It’s been known for many months that the cost of the health care bill has been phoney baloney budgetary gimmicks. Most of the costs of the bill won’t kick in until 2013, while the bulk of the costs would be picked up in the next six years. A true cost of this bill over the first ten years (2013-2023) is well into the trillions of dollars.
CBO makes no apologies for basing their projections on what they acknowledge is tomfoolery. Nor do they seem to see it as their job to highlight this legislative legerdemain.
I guess that’s why they’re “non-partisan.” They cooperate in hoodwinking the American people with both parties.
There are other tricksies the Democrats are trying to get away with. Jacob Sullum of Reason’s Hit & Run highlights a few:
As before, those projections depend on Medicare cuts that, given Congress’ track record in this area, probably will not be sustained. Furthermore, the Democrats continue to double count Medicare savings, pretending to use them both to pay for insurance subsidies and to improve the program’s long-term financial condition. As our own Peter Suderman has noted, both the CBO and Medicare’s chief actuary have criticized this trick. Yet the talking points released this morning by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) claim the bill both “IS FULLY PAID FOR” and “EXTENDS THE SOLVENCY OF MEDICARE.”
And what about that part where the CBO guys took off their green eyeshades and put on rose-colored glasses to give us an estimate of $1.2 trillion in savings 20 years down the road? Not so fast says Sullum:
The changes in the reconciliation bill, it [CBO] says, would “further reduce federal budget deficits in that decade, with a total effect that is in a broad range between zero and one-quarter percent of GDP.” When the range of numbers in a projection includes zero, it seems fair to say the projection is not very helpful as a guide to policy decisions. Yet the Democrats have transformed these highly uncertain projections into a seemingly precise and reliable dollar figure: $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction during the second decade.
So if we spend a few trillion (with a T) dollars, we’ll be saving money? It would be laughable if it wasn’t my money – and my childrens’.
In a really distorted and creepy kind of way if this Bill passes and becomes law it might actually accelerate the return to fundementals in this country. How you ask? Here comes the really bad part. If this Bill becomes law it will desroy what ever credibility our monetary system has and lead to a collapse. As we begin to re-build after said collapse all Federal Programs or Entilements will have to be suspended or repealed in order to balance the books. I for one do not want to see the country go through this and if anyone in Government had any sense they would not either and kill this bill and then figure a way to reduce spending on other Entitlements. Alas that will not happen so it seems as if we as a Nation will have to go through decades of unwanted pain and deprivation just to satisfy the egos of politicians.
It’s like when someone goes to a store and buys a $400 outfit on sale for $300 and max out their credit card. Yup, you saved $100 on an outfit you couldn’t afford in the first place and will end up paying more than $100 in interest in the long run.
Fundamental to account principles and practices, even by decree of the CBO: There is no such thing as a deficit neutral federal government program.
The Arch-Deceiver said that this would not add a dime to the federal deficit. He also said that the Stimulus Package was shovel ready. He said that he would change the way Washington does business. The problem in Washington is a deficit of trust.
The best news that may come of this travesty is the surge of States’ Rights.
Old Soldier, my sentiments exactly.
$13,000,000,000,000 in the hole, and there’s ‘praise’ for this nonsensical CBO report?
I can’t fathom, wrap my noggin around the reckless actions in this ‘reform’.
I’ve nieces and nephews who are/ will be young adults in the near future and am dismayed by this B S strategy.
You need only look at Massachusetts 2006-Present health insurance premiums percentage rise, the # of uninsured prior to 2006 and those who are now partially/ completely on the taxpayer teet, the rise of Government spending on health’care’ 2006- present, how much is eating up their state budget, the LOW percentage of those who were ABLE to purchase insurance through an exchange. Their Governor, realizing the problem is proposing ‘price controls’ which will surely run some insurers out-of-state.
All this, though prior to 2006, Massachusetts had the most health insured people in the nation!
Does the revenue from 2010 up to 2013 go into a “trust fund”?
Are you still glad, or proud, that you voted for Obama?
A lot of people are saying secretly to themselves–”I hope the dems do this so that it causes their destruction, then we can sweep[them from power in November….”
While that may be true, I caution all of you to remember this: Never underestimate the power of the Republican party to shoot itself in the foot.
Just say the dems pass this monstrosity, and their poll numbers hit the toilet. all rather likely right?
But then the dems pull out their ace in the hole…yet another republican hypocrisy scandal….lets just say a republican caught in flagrant dilecto with a dead little boy or a live monkey.
Then John Stewart and Steven Colbert and Maher and the rest of the pack pile on…there is endless mockery and sanctimony….
You see where this is going.
From the point of view of the marxist subversives, this bill has one main goal:
it will crash our budget, send the dollar down a bottomless pit, reduce the level of life of a large majority of Americans.
When this is done, the marxist subversives will have an ARMY of poor people that they will be able to maneuver as they please.
The poor idiots that are in the democratic party and are NOT marxist subversives are being played like dumb puppets.
What can be done when idiocy prevails at these levels ?
Pray.
PS The GOP is all happy to lose this battle and “win” the november elections because it doesn’t understand that this battle is just part of a war that is changing America forever. Politics and seats are nothing when the opponent plays another, completely different game. We should have never gone even near to such a defeat, the GOP should have acted in a completely different way.
SCARY……
Is this REALLY our AMERICA??????
Know the TRUTH about the Government Health Care Bill H.R.3200 – Key Points
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcBaSP31Be8
SCARY……
The highly destructive Cap and Trade. An inferior health care plan that no one wants and cannot afford to pay. The threat to jail and/or fine those who don’t purchase the government enforced plan. Massive spending as if there is no tomorrow. Massive borrowing. Massive debt. The massive printing of paper money. There is no question that the total DESTRUCTION of America’s economy is planned. The results will be horrifying. In the once wealthy and great nation of America, millions of Americans will become destitute, hungry and homeless with no money or resources to help them.
OBAMA: DEBT UNSUSTAINABLE
Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’
By Roger Runningen and Hans Nichols
May 14 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama, calling current deficit spending “unsustainable,” warned of skyrocketing interest rates for consumers if the U.S. continues to finance government by borrowing from other countries.
“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said at a town-hall meeting in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “We have to pay interest on that debt, and that means we are mortgaging our children’s future with more and more debt.”
Holders of U.S. debt will eventually “get tired” of buying it, causing interest rates on everything from auto loans to home mortgages to increase, Obama said. “It will have a dampening effect on our economy.”…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJsSb4qtILhg&refer=worldwide
Obama admits the terrible financial destruction wrought against Americans. WHY then DOES OBAMA NOT IMMEDIATELY REVERSE THIS TRAGEDY?
A major investor states America is going to reach Zimbabwe hyperinflation.
http://economyincrisis.org/articles/show/2942
Its funny that you people don’t seem concerned about the $1 trillion dollars we spent blowing up Iraq despite no WMDs or connection to 9/11. I would gladly spend $1 trillion on providing health care to our people than wasting it with Dick Cheney on the middle east. Way to show up now conservatives and act like the debt is Obama’s fault. Where were the teabaggers when Bush gave $3 trillion to the top 5 percent? Where were the teabaggers when Bush stripped away liberty for the sake of supposed security. You people are so phony and stupid you don’t even see your hypocrisy. If you don’t want Obama’s health care, well then self medicate you will save me the tax money that I am willing to pay. btw- fill out the census morans, even Mary and Joseph did it back in the day.
The CBO was always trusted and respected under Bush, so why is it all of a sudden a stupid organization? Get real.
reallyconservatives, changing the trajectory in Iraq is well worth it. The neocon plan was working until Obama withdrew all Bush’s support for the green revolution in Iran. Out of spite, to snatch that monumental achievement from the right.
Are you really so worried about your telephone conversations being wiretapped (which is a lie) but not worried about the feds having access to your health records? Or putting you in jail for not buying what they tell you?
Bush’s lower taxes are not “giving”. They are reductions in “stealing” from all levels of taxpayers and resulted in HIGHER government revenue. When our death tax returns to 50% next year, there will be a rash of suicides and patricides before Jan. 1. You bloodsucking liberals will own that tragedy.
Hey, where’s my post!?
#13 Adrian: here’s the troll, right on cue. Ignore the abysmal record of the CBO. Ignore the politicization of the CBO estimating process. Blame or refer to Bush era. Get real? Yes would you please.
It is even worse than portrayed here. The CBO “cost” or “savings” estimate for Obamacare is a net cost – after tax and fee increases contained within the bill are subtracted. That would be like me saying that my new BMW cost only $1,000 because I took $39,000 our of my kids education fund.
@12. reallyconservatives?: – Its funny that you people don’t seem concerned about the $1 trillion dollars we spent blowing up Iraq…
Perhaps that’s because military actions take in Iraq were authorized by joint resolution in Congress, in part because Saddam was financing international terrorism. Also, you’re pathetically misinformed about the many WMDs found in Iraq, and the various politicians who initially claimed they were an imminent threat.
- I would gladly spend $1 trillion on providing health care …
If YOU have $1T, that’s entirely YOUR prerogative. Go for it!! However, it’s not your place – nor even the so-called “majority’s” place – to dictate to OTHERS how much we’re forced to spend on other people’s basic necessities without our consent. Congress does not have the constitutional authority to redistribute wealth.
- …act like the debt is Obama’s fault.
Get a grip. The last budget Republicans controlled was in 2007. The deficit there was $160B, and it had been steadily decreasing for three years. The MOMENT the Democrats took the majority in Congress, they TRIPLED the deficit (FY2008). Based on the most recent figures, Democrats – and that includes BHO both as Senator and as President – have managed to explode the federal deficit BY A FACTOR OF TEN TIMES in only three years. WAY TO GO, moron Democrats!
- Where were the teabaggers when Bush gave $3 trillion to the top 5 percent?
Again, you are utterly, willfully clueless. The tax cuts passed in 2003 resulted in the top 5% of taxpayers contributing MORE, not less to the total tax base. The top 40% earners in America now pay VIRTUALLY ALL income tax paid, which means the remaining 60 percent (plus illegals and others who don’t file) contribute next to NOTHING in the form of income tax.
Keep repeating those debunked talking points, troll. It’s always nice to know who the idiots are out there.
reallyconservatives? types:
“btw- fill out the census morans, even Mary and Joseph did it back in the day”.
Way to go, I’m sure you are really hurting a lot of folk’s feelings. Nobody likes to be called a moran. A little advice: you could even hurt more people’s feelings if you called them morons.
Now get back to work, I want my burger with cheese and mustard.
Why do conservative Republicans hate the same CBO they loved yesterday? The Republicans are in major hand wringing mode with the CBO because its latest report on HCR says that the bill will cut the deficit by $130 billion over the next 10 years and by well over a trillion dollars in the following decade. Something the Republicans could never do.
In July, However, CBO director Douglas Elmendorf testified that one version of the Democrats’ healthcare bill would not achieve budgetary savings. Of course, every Republican leader and right-wing media figure in Washington praised his “devastating” analysis.
The bottom line is that the CBO has no credibility until it issues a report that is consistent with extreme right-wing conservative dogma, at which time they will suddenly become infallible.
I love the smell of conservative desperation in the morning. Sunday will be a good day for hard-working American families.
goy @18; I must vehemently disagree…
It is absolutely, in no way, shape or form, nice to know those idiots are out there!
20. The CBO report can’t be taken seriously because the assumptions which Congress forced them to make are utterly unrealistic.
@ 20 Praetorian: If Monday morning comes as you expect then I hope you will be happy when this turns into the worse thing ever for “hard working American Families”. The rich won’t care (after all they are rich), the corporations will pass on any costs to consumers and your dear leaders and all government employees are not required to use the dehumanizing socialized health system that awaits the rest of us. They will also remain immune to a crashing private sector, inflation and other affects of runaway debt.
Unfortunately, it is “useful idiots” like yourself who are betraying the majority of hard working American families – most of whom can see the gross illogic and the outright lies and fraud of Obamacare.