Florida Suburbanites the Key to Victory in 2012
One intriguing question about President Obama’s reelection strategy has been whether he should target classic Midwestern “swing” states like Ohio and Michigan, or go after the new battlegrounds of the South and West like Florida, Colorado and Nevada. Many pundits recognize the fact that Ohio almost always votes for the national winner, missing only in 1944 and 1960 in the last 115 years. But Florida, nationally famous for close elections and political brawling in the 21st century, may be eclipsing Ohio as the nation’s premier battleground state due to its size, ethnic diversity, and suburban majority that is now representative of the nation.
William Galston, who served in Bill Clinton’s White House, wrote in early 2011 in The New Republic:
[T]he Obama’s 2012 campaign will focus more on the Democratic periphery—territory newly won in 2008—than on the heartland, where elections have been won and lost for the past half-century. This could turn out to be a mistake of epic proportions. Why? Because the United States looks a lot more like Ohio than like Colorado…. Barack Obama’s path to reelection runs through Ohio and the Midwest, not around them.
The next day, Jonathan Chait answered in The New Republic: “But there is a plausible electoral path without Ohio. Add one or two of Virginia, North Carolina, or Colorado to the base of states that Democrats have won in each of the last five presidential elections, and you have an electoral college majority.”
Two weeks later, Galston replied in an article with the direct title “Why Ohio Matters: Obama can’t win the election without it,” writing that “my argument rests on the fact that Ohio is close to being a microcosm of the country — closer than any other pivotal state.”
Mr. Galston’s point is well-taken: over the long term, Ohio has a better track record as a political barometer than Florida, Colorado, or Nevada, voting for the winner of every national election since 1945, except in 1960. (This fact makes one wonder why Mitt Romney didn’t pick Ohio Senator Rob Portman.)
But Galston is not necessarily right. After all, he worked on the 1984 campaign of Walter Mondale, who managed to lose 49 states, and was on President Clinton’s staff in 1994 when the Democrats managed to lose their majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. So his track record as a political wizard is far from perfect.
There are a number of reasons why Ohio may not be the most important state in 2012. “Simple arithmetic,” to borrow a phrase from Bill Clinton, indicates that Florida should get just as much attention as Ohio. Even a fourth grade math student would realize that Florida’s 29 electoral votes are more than Ohio’s 18. Is Florida tougher for Democrats to win than Ohio is? The recent electoral history of both states is hardly conclusive.
President Obama won Ohio with 51.5% in 2008 and Florida with 51.0%, not a great difference. In the last five presidential elections, from 1992 to 2008, Democrats won Ohio three times and Florida twice, but the Sunshine State was so close in 2000 (537 votes out of nearly six million) that the Supreme Court had to famously settle the issue. Amazingly, Democratic nominees have averaged 46.8% of the total vote in both states in the past five elections. So both Ohio and Florida are closely divided swing states.
And does Ohio really look more like America than Colorado and Florida do? In the 2008 exit poll, Ohio voters were 83% white, 11% black, 4% Hispanic, and 2% Asian/Other compared to 74% white, 13% black, 9% Hispanic, and 5% Asian/Others for all Americans. By contrast, Florida voters were 71% white, 13% black, 14% Hispanic, and 2% Asian/Other, while Colorado voters were 81% white, 4% black, 13% Hispanic, and 2% Asian/Other. (By residence, suburbanites were 49% of all Americans, while both Ohio and Florida were 62% suburban and Colorado 51% suburban in the 2008 poll.) So, compared to the national averages, Ohio is actually light on Hispanics and Asian/Other voters, the fastest growing groups in the electorate. Both Florida and Colorado are closer than Ohio to the multi-ethnic America of the 21st century. Candidates in 2012 and beyond who carry both Florida and Colorado are likely to win nationally. So Galston’s argument that President Obama “can’t win without Ohio” is hardly a lead-pipe cinch.
If the Sunshine State is the key…..well…..based on my totally non-scientific poll of suburban Florida lawn signage and bumper stickers along the Space Coast (and part of the Gulf Coast on a family vacation in late September, pre-first debate)…..Obama’s in big trouble.
Indeed, Fraulein Shtupp, a quick trip from Apalachicola west through Panama City Beach will confirm your observations. That Yink and Yank circle, the symbol of Obamism, will seldom to never be seen.
I can report in from St Petersburg. I commute to Tampa every day, and several months ago there were many cars with early Obama bumper stickers, but since the first debate there has been an explosion of Romney bumper stickers and I’d say I see more of those Romney stickers overall now.
House signs are a similiar story – an explosion of Romney enthusiasm since the first debate. As I said, I live in St Petersburg, and I typically bike about a 12 mile trip that takes me through the north and east sides of town. Each Staurday on my ride I take a house sign “poll” to pass the time. This morning I walked a different 3 mile loop (didn’t feel like biking) and between yesterday and today, covering 15 miles, my house sign poll has Romney signs beating Obama signs 48-26. That’s a HUGE jump from 2004, when it was 50/50, and 2008, when there were almost nothing but Obama signs (as there was very little public enthusiasm for John McCain).
I’d breakdown my very informal walking/biking analysis like this: Of the richest homes, the big mansiony ones often on the water, that would be worth $1M to $10M – it’s 50/50 Romney/Obama. The upper middle class homes, those that look like they would sell for $300K-$1M, are about 80% Romney. The middle class homes, that look like they would sell for $100-$300K are about 60% Romney.
If any of that is any indication, it would mean that St Petersburg, which is typically a 50/50 Red/Blue town, is going to go big for Romney.
About the only Obama stickers we are seeing are anti-Obama stickers.
i was born in Fla. in 46,its changed a lot.Especially S. Fla. the something for nothing crowd is everywhere but in N.Fla. there are lots of old floridians that are very conservative they may save the state.
The Orlando area still seems split about 50/50. Funny thing, though, is most of the Obama supporters I’ve spoken to here are absolutely clueless about the man and his politics. I hope my education has won over a few votes to our side (I hope so, anyway).
Florida is blue around the edge of the east coast from St. Augustine to Key West. A blue spot in Tampa and then the rest of the state is RED. As a citizen of the state who travels state wide on a daily basis for my job. I can tell you anecdotally that there is a 8 to 1 spread of Romney to Obama signs in the yards and on the billboards it is almost all Romney and Ryan but most of those are bought through Super PACS and some are incredibly funny. Too bad I can’t drive and take pictures.
The economic depression always starts in Florida and when Florida begins to come out you know the depression is almost done. We are not even beginning to see a recovery… This state is going almost solid red this election due to a couple of factors.
1. This is a very religious state. With a large demographic of Catholics and Baptists the President’s decision to go against the grain with respect to non-traditional marriage and his support of Arabs and the Muslim Brotherhood have hardened the “independent” voter against him.
2. The snowbirds have nothing better to do than read the news and from my perch it looks like they are as wired as the teenagers. Just look at PJM. I would bet a dime to a donut that the average age of commenters and readers is north of 55. I know that doesn’t make for nicey sweety with the Ad agency trying to sell advertisers on the 18 to 45 demo but really I think that team Geezer has more buying power and is more likely to have time to actually spend money. Us working stiffs on the other hand have begun to work longer hours and many have gone to part time jobs on the weekends so that we can keep our heads above water. I have noticed that an employer is more likely to hire a part timer as long as they have a full time job?! But we are Mad as Hell and it will show come November.
There’s a bone to be chewed and the “Gales of November” will come early.
This entire argument is dumb.
Romney needs BOTH Ohio and Florida to win.
I came from Chicago 12 years ago, retired, own my own home and have always voted Republican since 1960. Your middle class is hanging on by their fingernails so I dare you to vote for Obama and the Democrats again. It’s like I’m standing here watching a giant meteor named Obama coming straight for us.
I live in Florida, at the East end of the famous I-4 corridor, a suburb of Daytona Beach. It’s clearly Romney country here, by a wide margin.
Romney HAS to win Florida, and most likely he will.
But he does NOT have to win Ohio, to win the Presidency, although it will be very difficult to win the November 6th election withOUT winning Ohio.
Keep your eyes on Ohio – especially the fraudulent votes coming out of their inner cities; the big question I have is simply this: whether the Ohio inner city electoral fraud will outpace the suburbanites’ vote margins along the I-70 corridor in Ohio.
“CHANGING EXPECTATIONS IN FLORIDA, OHIO, IOWA, PENNSYLVANIA, ETC.”
It was “kinda unexpected”
To pay $5 bucks at the pump,
And you could not give me 50,
To excuse this latest “jump”
But, of course, the price of “energy”
To Obama does not matter,
So we know there’s no inflation,
Nor any limit he won’t shatter.
It was “kinda unexpected”
To see our countrymen defiled
In that “friendly place” called Libya
While the natives burned AND smiled.
But then, “The Won” said clearly,
That Islam was THE FUTURE TO BE
So we can only blame ourselves,
For the horrors seen at Benghazi.
It was “kinda unexpected”
To see BO wilt before our eyes,
Before the “verbal swords” were crossed,
He was TALKING TRASH and LIES.
But, of course, it took just minutes,
For the “Presstitutes” to find,
That Romney was falsely favored
By his rather brilliant mind.
We refuse more “unexpecteds”
We reject “more of the same”.
And we sure as h#ll aren’t willing
To yield our freedoms in “his” name.
So, the White House “Current Occupants”
Had better start to pack.
‘Cause we’re voting in “New Management”
AND WE NEVER WILL LOOK BACK.
* My local Chevron; 91 Octane; debit card.
[And you can stuff your “excuses” in your teleprompter.]
ROMNEY & RYAN WIN BIG….IN A LITTLE OVER TWO WEEKS!
DON’T JUST WATCH THIS HISTORIC REJECTION OF SOCIALISM–JOIN IN, PARTICIPATE!
And, its Sunday, GO TO CHURCH, PRAISE THE GOD OF OUR FATHERS WHO HAS SAVED OUR REPUBLIC FOR MORE THAN TWO HUNDRED YEARS; PRAY FOR DELIVERANCE FOR OUR TROOPS, AND OUR FAMILIES
Romney & Ryan Win Big…SOON, SO SOON.
I know the northern part of Ohio is strong union country, so they’d be more likely to go for Obama (although the union rank and file doesn’t seem so compliant this time around). But around here, in the southern part of the state, Romney/Ryan yard signs are everywhere, and I mean EVERYWHERE. I’ve seen hardly any Obama signs at all, and that’s a major change from 2008.
You are incorrect in your assertion that the “courts” settled the 2000 election in Florida. The voters decided, regardless of the margin of victory. There would have been no difference in the outcome for the electoral college. The Gore lawsuit was a last ditch effort to discredit the legitimacy of the Bush win.
I honestly don’t know how anyone who lives in areas that will be hit hard by the contractor cuts can vote for Obama – Pensacola, Jacksonville, The Space Coast – to name a few. This is going to kill countless small businesses that rely on them as customers because as things stand right now, with them unable to tell the workers who will be cut, everyone has to plan as though they will be out of a job come January 2. This is a horrible situation for nearby business. Thanks so much Obama.
The improved jobs report, Florida was up by 800 jobs. This is heralded as news so wonderful it could turn around the race? Well that is nothing compared to the losses coming in January.
I am 63 years old and born in Pensacola, FL. Lived in N FL almost all of my life.
The national press still reports major democrat registration in the N FL counties and this is true. What they don’t realize is that these N FL democrats vote Republican in national elections except (sometimes), when the Democrat candidate is a southerner.
Obama won in 2008 on the ‘white guilt’ vote. He has no chance this time.
This is the truth. I have friends in Wakulla County. I just checked their website to confirm what I suspected. They show a majority Democrat registration. But I am pretty confident the county will vote for Romney. The reason people are reluctant to change registration is that these are close-knit communities. They remain registered Democrats in case a friend is running for local office – this was how my friend explained it. If the media doesn’t understand North Florida, they will be way off base on turnout.
isn’t the consensus that Romney has already won Florida?
pop the champaign.
I vote in Florida absentee from Australia so it is heartening to hear the news from on the ground. I will be mailing in my ballot today but I will be watching Ohio with more anxiety than Florida. Like many have pointed out if Romney can’t win Florida he is toast. My intuition is that the white guilt (and the white voroers simply willingnto give Obama a go) vote of 2008 may switch to Romney in the privacy of the ballot box this time around. Like those public democrats in Northen Florida I think there will be many former Obama voters who quietly decide that Romney would be the better president. Also I think the Obama of 2008 filled a Keenedy size hole in the soul of the electorate. But that was then and today’s Obama obviously means 4 more years of the same and the country already rejected that in 2010. I think the great shellacking of 2010 is a little remarked on dynamic that is causing voters to break for the challenger late in the race. It feels to me that first debate made it respectable fto put up Romney lawn signs but I would not be surprised if it turns out that there are many people who make the same decision more quietly.
That this election is even close is a national disgrace.
AMERICA,for Your own sake-PLZ vote for Romney.To me, I can not believe why this is close,also. PLZ do the right thing! Your Polish allies.