Florida Preview: Lots of Sunshine, Lots of Suburbs, Lots of Clout
Like most big states, Florida can be divided into several “sub-regions.” There’s the Northern Panhandle running from Jacksonville to the Alabama border plus the rural counties of Central/Interior Florida, which are the sections of Florida still most like the rest of the Old South: rural/smalltown, conservative, religious. “Old Florida” has about 20% of the state population. At the other end of the political/social spectrum is the “Gold Coast,” centered in Miami and including Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, and Key West. It is mostly populated by migrants from the Northeast, particularly Greater New York (the joke in Florida is that the further south you go, the closer to New York you get). The Gold Coast also has significant concentrations of mostly Republican Cuban refugees and strongly Democratic inner city blacks. The Gold Coast casts about 25% of the state vote.
Then there is the ring of coastal counties running from just south of St. Petersburg down the Gulf of Mexico to Naples and up from Fort Pierce to Cape Canaveral on the Atlantic Coast. These counties are mostly populated by middle and upper class retirees who have a high turnout in GOP primaries (about 30% of the state vote). The suburban retirees on Florida’s west coast came down I-75 from the Midwest while their counterparts on the Atlantic Coast came down I-95 from the Northeast. For lack of a better term, we’ll call this region “Sun Belt Coastal.” The true swing area of Florida is the “I-4 corridor” running from Daytona Beach through Orlando to the Tampa Bay area and casting about a quarter of the state vote.
The Northern Panhandle and Central Florida are very similar to the smaller cities and towns of South Carolina that went so heavily for Gingrich. Newt should sweep them. On the other hand, Romney has the endorsement of numerous Cuban Republican leaders and should do well in the Miami area. The two areas that will likely decide this crucial primary are the Sun Belt Coast and the I-4 corridor. And these mostly suburban voters could also give us a strong indication as to what their friends and relatives are thinking back in Metro New York, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Chicago.
So Florida will not only have great influence over this year’s Republican ticket through its primary, but also possibly light the way forward by its predictive power of so many transplanted suburbanites.
If Romney wins Florida but Newt comes in a close second, it might help Newt in the long run. Newt is better when he’s coming from behind and chasing the leader. As the frontrunner, Romney would resume attacking Obama rather than Gingrich, taking some heat off of Newt and allowing his numbers to creep back up. Newt should hope that he’s always just slightly coming from behind and lands the final blow on Romney towards the end of the contest.
If Newt beats Romney in Florida and takes a commanding lead in the polls again, look out. History suggests that it will go to Newt’s head and he’ll self-destruct yet again. Plus, Romney will devastate him with negative ads as he did in Iowa. Newt can’t and shouldn’t expect to coast for months with a commanding lead over Romney—unless Santorum drops out at some point and his supporters go to Newt. Santorum is the wildcard who can keep Romney in the hunt if Newt’s numbers surge, or hand Newt a victory over Mitt if he decides to drop out.
The above is based on the assumption that Ron Paul won’t be a factor throughout the contest. He’ll hang on to the bitter end, but he probably won’t be able to break up the two-man race that’s taking shape.
All in all, I’m betting that an outbreak of serious civil unrest will coincide with and ultimately overshadow the election, even more so if Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate. Imagine a scenario in which angry Tea Party protestors are at odds with the angry Occupy Wall Street crowd and the angry young Paulbots are added to the mix, while Europe goes bust and war breaks out in the Middle East. Help!
Newt won’t self-destruct. For one thing, a great many of us LIKE his outspokenness. We are absolutely sick of mealy-mouthed politicians who won’t come out and say anything definite, and who can’t do anything better than presenting a watered-down version of what we are already getting from Obama. We want somebody who tells it like it is.
It’s Mitt Romney who is losing ground. The party base has always hated him, and word is getting out regarding what Mitt is all about: the completely amoral pursuit of power.
http://1389blog.com/category/politics/mitt-romney/
few things are more predictable than Newt’s ability to self-destruct. This is the same man who in one breath cites FDR as our best-ever president while, in the next, acting like he invented Ronald Reagan. Newt is a statist, plain and simple. He loves big govt almost as much as Obama. His motives may not be as sinister as Barry’s, but his approach is much the same – say a lot of grandiose things and hope that your adoring public is too stupid to do its own research.
Is Romney perfect? Nope. Neither is anyone else. Yet, polls show him beating obama head to head. They also show Ron Paul doing likewise, both men inside the margin of error. Newt? Not so much. Never underestimate the ability of the Repub and conservative establishments, and their conflicting aims, from creating defeat when victory should be inevitable.
I think that if Newt manages to win Florida, the major players that control the Republican Party are going to have to do some hard thinking about Romney. If Romney can only win in the North but Newt can win in the South, that poses huge problems for the Republicans. Santorum may do better in the midsection of the country like he did in Iowa, but I doubt it. He doesn’t have the money to keep going much after Florida, and if he does he won’t have much of an impact. No, you may get a wierd breakdown of Romney in the North and Newt in the South with nobody getting a clear majority of delegates. In the end, could we see a Romney/Gingrich ticket? God help us if we do. They may kill each other before they even get to talking about Obama.
as always it depends on who’s asking the questions and who’s answering them
I think it is a two-man race at this point and either Mitt or Newt could take Florida.
Ironically, some of the most socially conservative people I know, living in North Florida, are still registered Democrat. So while they support Santorum, they can’t vote. Floridians, at least those of us with a memory, have a good reason never to vote for Santorum anyway. Those who remember that due to campaign cash from Acuweather, Santorum would have made it illegal for the hurricane center and weather service to update us on approaching hurricanes on TV. For those who may have forgotten this bit of stupidity, just Google it. We should always have as much access as possible to all scientific data paid for with our taxes. Seems pretty basic to me.
One thing about Florida, our population is constantly changing so it is difficult to define the Florida voter. In general the most liberal areas are located right around the universities. Other than that we tend to be more conservative. Check the voting patterns of 2004 and 2008 and you will see that Republicans lost Florida in 2008, not because of a great surge for Obama, but because many in the smaller, more conservative interior counties chose not to vote. I do not believe this will happen this time around, whether the candidate is Newt or Mitt. These counties, still mostly agricultural, have seen how tyrannical federal regulations can be.
I voted for Paul this time around because I believe we need his views on the size and scope of government, if we have any hope of turning back the damage inflicted by the Obama administration. I do not believe that left to their own instincts Mitt or Newt or Santorum would fight to overturn these past few years of federal tyranny with the determination that is needed.
If Paul does go third party, which I seriously doubt, I will never forgive him. It will be a betrayal of everything he claims to believe because it will almost certainly guarantee a second term for Obama. He can do so much more good by being the conscious of the opposition. He does not have to win to play a much-needed role.
I do agree with much of what you say but I could not disagree more concerning the candidate you have chosen. I have no doubt that Mitt Romney with his expertise he has gained by his experiences in private business and in the Olympics and as governor of Mass would do a far better job than any Washington insider as the other 3 are. I mean after all the most liberal state in the union elected him and he represented them not his own agenda as Obama has done to the American people. I know Romney is in fact a conservative and would do as he has committed himself to do during this campaign. Newt wants everyone to believe the baloney that he has been spewing as he attempts to convince people that he knows more about Romney than Romney knows about himself. We need to be informed. One can find out the actual truth about Romney at his website than they can find out about Romney on Newts website. If you believe Newt concerning Romney’s career you will definitely be misled.
I think Gingrich will win by a 5% margin (full analysis in my post inside the Nostradamus contest article by Simon), but -of course, there is some flaws in the analysis; maybe some of you can refine it.
As a Cuban-American and conservative Republican activist, I can tell you that the endorsement of Mitt Romney by the Miami Republican leaders will have little effect on how the Cuban community will vote. Cuban Americans are always suspicious of politicians and are very independent when choosing their candidates as long as they have conservative principles, which Romney seriously lacks. All my Cuban American friends will be voting for Newt Gingrich.
Newt has a way of being many things to many people. The Mexican crowd might go to Gingrich because of his illegal immigrant pander and his semi-subtle critique of blacks.
Nice try by Newt, but epic FAIL: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/marco-rubio-mitt-romney-no-charlie-crist
I hope this news will spread around. It could help Mitt gain momentum.
I am surprised to say the least, for the past number of months all I have heard is we are not going to send a Washington insider to the office of president this time and I think another phrase was kick all the bums out, don’t reelect any of them. I would ask what happened to that position? South Carolina voted to place the longest serving Washington insider on the GOP ticket for president. I have watched Newt Gingrich through his career and after what I have observed in him since the 70′s & 80′s, I would never vote for that person. A $300,000.00 penalty by his associates for activity that was not in keeping with the integrity that is expected and demanded by the organization he finally resigned from, or was kick out of, and folks today believe he should be given a 2nd chance? I have no problem with forgiving a person if that person is contrite and truly repentant, but I sure do not see that in Newt. As I watch the man there is no doubt that he has no integrity. There are others in the race who would most likely have greater integrity than Newt. We would have to eliminate Ron Paul because he is himself is a Washington insider and he like many of the progressives would not defend our nation. That would leave another Washington insider who has spent about 16 years or more in Washington, never the less he would be a better candidate than Newt but not much better. All of those candidates are playing dirty politics but I am amazed that most of the voters by the news media’s propaganda feel that Romney is the one who is guilty of such. He was actually driven to that point after trying to be civil to his opponents. Even the news media are attempting to get Newt elected as the GOP candidate something seems strange to me about the fact that even the channel who claims to be fair and balanced is in on the game to defeat Romney. That scares the hades out of me. Romney is the only candidate who is not a Washington insider and is a man of integrity as most folks could tell especially those who have associated with him and do know him. If we choose Newt we will deserve what we get. I doubt he will be able to win. He is a smooth talker just like Obama, the question is can he out smooth talk Obama, especially if Nancy does have an october surprise waiting for us. If she is speaking the truth who will we vote for then?
I find Gingrich’s latest lies about Romney in Florida absolutely reprehensible and irresponsible. I’m so glad Marco Rubio put Gingrich in his place and told the world that it was Romney who steadfastly supported and campaigned for Rubio when Rubio was running for Senator — NOT the lying Gingrich. This old, tired, angry, desperate for attention whiner, 20-year Washington insider is an embarrassment to the GOP and the conservative movement. CHARACTER COUNTS. Remember: we already have an occupier in the White House whose character is questionable. Why follow BHO with another big-time character flaw?
Here’s a prayer that Newt loses Fla. I’ve seen GOP Primary voters shoot themselves in the head again and again, and I have no confidence that they will do that once again for this phoney, solely on their recent impression of his debating skills. Givin’ it to the man, yeah sure. He was just on spanish-language media today, assuring them that he thinks taking away Illegals’ jobs so they will go home is a joke, no way he would let that happen. Politically speaking, Newt is George Bush, without the bumbling good nature. He is an over-brained misanthrope, in the worst sense. Can’t believe we are looking at the possibility of this individual being nominated. GOP voters… unbelievable.