Florida Preview: Lots of Sunshine, Lots of Suburbs, Lots of Clout
History and opportunity combine to make the Florida primary the pivot on which the GOP nomination will turn.
January 25, 2012 - 12:00 am
Say what you will about the good folks of Florida: they sure know how to get attention. Over the last decade or so, they’ve given us the Elian Gonzalez drama, the Bush-Gore brawl that the U.S. Supreme Court had to step in to settle in Bush’s favor, the Tea Party revival, and the Lebron James melodrama. Then there’s Miami, America’s Casablanca: an exotic place of intrigue and sometimes deadly violence. (See various Miami riots, Elian, the 1980 Cuban boatlift, numerous hurricanes, and those two fines pieces of fictional entertainment, Miami Vice and Scarface.)
And now with three different winners of the first three contests — Santorum in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire, Gingrich in South Carolina, which is a first in Republican history — the “Sunshine State” once again takes center stage as the first tie-breaker in the Republican contest. With a winner-take-all primary that awards nearly 5% of the delegates needed for nomination, Florida will set the stage for a dramatic Republican fight. And do we need to mention that the Republican National Convention will be in Tampa?
Florida is a key part of what Kevin Phillips dubbed the “Sun Belt,” a Tomorrowland of Hispanic immigrants and refugees, Northern retirees, and Yankee migrants superimposed on a state once dominated by mostly rural conservative Southern Democrats. Florida has emerged as the ultimate battleground state. In the last four national elections, Florida went a long way toward picking our president. In 1996, Bill Clinton’s upset of Bob Dole there was the knock-out punch to Republican hopes. The Florida recount of 2000 was the most hotly disputed and latest settlement of an election since 1876. In 2004, the Sunshine State was the knock-out punch to Democrat John Kerry’s hopes when he lost it with 47%. In 2008, when the networks awarded Florida to Barack Obama, the election was over.
As one who both lived in Florida and worked on campaigns there, it is very difficult to “organize” in a state of over 19 million people that is geographically very large and crosses two time zones. (From Pensacola to Key West, the distance is greater than New York to Chicago.) Democrats do some strong organizing among the elderly in Greater Miami, as do Republicans in the Cuban-American precincts of Miami-Dade County. But for the most part, Florida politics is driven by the 3 Ms: money, media, and momentum. So, debate performances, TV ads, and the emotions generated by Gingrich in South Carolina will be vital.