Five ‘Must-Watch’ Congressional Races for 2012
New Hampshire CD-1 and CD-2
Frank Guinta-inc (R) vs. Carol Shea-Porter (D)
Charlie Bass-inc (R) vs. Ann McLane Kuster (D)
These two seats have so much in common and are so competitive that a package deal is in order. Besides, they have mirrored each other in recent elections. In fact, these two seats have gone to the same party in every election since 1992. Both were Democratic pick-ups in 2006, and Republicans reclaimed them both two years ago.
But the similarities don’t end there. All four of the likely nominees (likely because the Democratic primary won’t be held until September 11) were on the ballot in 2010. It’s a pair of rematches, and early polls indicate two razor-close battles are in store.
As red spots in the blue expanse of the Northeast, these two contests hold special significance for the GOP. Along with a competitive Senate race in nearby Connecticut, they represent two of very few opportunities for Republican victories in the region.
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Pennsylvania CD-12 (merged seat)
Mark Critz-inc (D) vs. Keith Rothfus (R)
An interesting phenomena of reapportionment after every 10-year census is the incumbent-vs-incumbent race. When a state loses seats to reapportionment, it is quite common for two incumbents to end up in the same district. That’s just what happened in Pennsylvania this year. Republicans used their control over the redistricting process to paint Democratic Congressmen Jason Altmire and Mark Critz into a newly configured CD-12. Critz won the primary and will face Keith Rothfus, a Tea-Party backed Republican who lost to Altmire in 2010 by just 2 percent.
This year, Rothfus may turn the tables on Critz, given the new district’s R+6 PVI, but Critz has proven a formidable challenge in the past. He won a special election to replace the late John Murtha in May 2010 and then held on to win re-election, 51-49, in November of that year, despite seeing so many of his Democratic colleagues go down to defeat.
It’ll be an exciting race in a battleground state, and the winner could be determined by the color and length of the coattails at the top of the ticket.
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Minnesota CD-8
Chris Cravaack-inc (R) vs. Richard Nolan (D)
Democrat Jim Oberstar rarely campaigned for re-election. His seat was one of those formalities I mentioned earlier. In 2010, Chris Cravaack was supposed to be just the next GOP pretender to lose big to the 19-term incumbent. But then the red wave kept rising and rising. Once Oberstar realized his race was competitive, it was too late. Cravaack’s stunning victory was one of the most surprising in recent memory.
Now, it is Cravaack who must work hard for re-election in this Democrat-leaning district (D+3 PVI). Demographic shifts may have moved his constituency rightward, but this remains difficult territory. His opponent, DFL-endorsed Richard Nolan, has been through the House election wars before — most recently in 1978. No, that’s not a typo, Nolan served three terms in Congress during the 1970s and hasn’t run for office since!
This race will be another nail-biter, but if Cravaack avoids the sophomore slump, he may be set up for easier tests in future cycles.
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Overall these races won’t decide who controls the House. If the Democrats manage an unlikely takeover, all of the races on this list — and many other less competitive ones — will have to fall in their favor. If that happens, these races may not turn out to be very competitive after all. But, barring the unforeseen, we will still have a Republican majority come January, albeit a few seats smaller, and these select contests will have provided us the suspense and intrigue that keep us coming back to the elections arena cycle after cycle.
Cravaack wasn’t any surprise to me. When you look at MN-08 think West Virginia not Minneapolis- very pro union but also pro-life, pro-guns and anti-EPA. Oberstar had began his career as a voice of opposition to a federal land grab that put much of northeastern Minnesota off limits to mining- the lifeblood of the Iron Range and Duluth’s shipping industry. He ended it by supporting legislation that would have given the EPA jurisdiction over every seasonal mud puddle in the nation. This was political suicide in a district in which a huge number of landowners live next to water and lake resorts are a major source of employment.
“He ended it by supporting legislation that would have given the EPA jurisdiction over every seasonal mud puddle in the nation.”
As a 35 year drinking water supply professional, that statement struck a chord of resonance with me. I strongly support wetlands creation and preservation along rivers and streams, for they make perfect sense. On the other hand 2 acre plots in the middle of an upland forest or surrounded by farm fields with a heavy clay groundwater barrier make absolutely no sense. The wetlands rules currently in effect should be more accurately named the “Anti-Development Pro-Enviro-Whack Regulations”.
Published on Aug 23, 2012 Ben Swann Reality Check takes a look at how the RNC is attempting to change the 5 state rule and decredential the entire Maine delegation only 4 days before the Republican National Convention
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQvszfnOSY8&feature=plcp
Two incumbent Republican congressmen here in Colorado are in close races. First termer Scott Tipton (HD – 3) is in a tight race with State Rep. Sal Pace. Tipton has done some good things, like sponsoring a national monument designation bill for the important archeological area in S.W. Colorado called Chimney Rocks. Elsewhere, he’s voted in lockstep with the House leadership, which doesn’t play well in a district with roughly even registrations.
Mike Coffman (HD – 6) in suburban district ought to be in good shape, despite re-districting making HD – 6 less Republican. Unfortunately, he got himself into an Obama-birther controversy and then stonewalled even usually sympathetic media. Most recent poll shows him with just a 40-36% lead over his Dem opponent.
second paragraph should read: suburban Denver district .
Critz won the race to replace Murtha, in part, because the then leader of the Pennsylvania Republican party was intentionally undercuting the Republican candidate in that district to preserve his own business interests in Johnstown, PA, where Murtha was from. That had been going on throughout Murtha’s career.
In Illinois, Joe Walsh(R), who is a victum of redistricting, is doing battle in the 8th district against Tammy Duckworth. Watch this one. It will be close.
You forgot a very important race to watch in Connecticut. C-3–between Winsley and the horrible incumbent DeLauro. This is an energetic black conservative who is trying to unseat that far-left extremist Rosa DeLauro who has served for 22 years!!! Should be against the law!!! She never saw a piece of statist legislation she wasn’t for! She keeps statism alive. Wayne can do it and right now McMahon for the Senate is polling ahead of her challenger. With Connecticut souring on Obama and Wayne’s commonsense solutions–it could be possible to “depose” Pelosi’s number two!! He could use some help also:
http://winsley2012.com/
Don’t forget NJ 6! In 2010, Anna Little came within a few thousand votes of beating Democrat Frank Pallone, who boasts that HE was the author of ObamaCare. With redistricting and far more Tea Parties around to endorse her, Little should have an easy victory. It won’t be. The Presidential election has sucked all the air out of the room and will probably turn out every Democratic voter.
Ironically, it is Little who is developing the ground game. Pallone’s direct appearances and voter outreach are about as rare as Galapagos tortoises.
Obama Care? No, he don’t.