Escalation: Iran To Close Strait if Further Sanctioned
The war of words between Iran and the United States escalated dangerously Sunday over the Islamic regime’s determination to develop nuclear weapons.
The Iranian leadership officially ordered its military commanders to close the Strait of Hormuz should Western sanctions be implemented on Iranian oil. Iran also announced it would be conducting ground war games, which would complement their recent naval war games intended to show they have the capacity to shut down the Strait.
About 35 percent of the world’s seaborne oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz — closing the strait would damage economies worldwide and cause gasoline prices to soar.
The United States responded that it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons — Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stated that such a development was a “red line” for the United States. General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that the United States has the ability to reopen the strait should Iran close it:
We made very clear that the United States will not tolerate the blocking of the Straits of Hormuz. … That’s another red line for us and that we will respond to them.
Britain has chosen to send its most sophisticated warship, the HMS Daring, to the Persian Gulf. The destroyer is fitted with new technology that gives it the ability to shoot down any missile in the Iranian armory.
Hadi Mohammadi, political deputy of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, made the announcement regarding the escalation. He told Iranian newspaper Khorasan that the Guards have received orders from the highest authority in the Islamic regime to close the Strait of Hormuz:
Iran cannot remain indifferent to the actions by the West and their threats in implementing sanctions on Iran’s oil. … The Strait of Hormuz is within the strategic space of the Islamic Republic, and the leadership is determined to not allow a drop of oil to pass through if our oil exports are affected.
In reference to the recent naval war games held by the Iranian navy in the strait and the Persian Gulf, and the upcoming war games to be held in the same waterways by the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammadi emphasized:
[Iran has] shown and will show the enemy that without a doubt, our forces are capable of closing this strategic waterway to the world.
Mohammadi added that this new doctrine is based on the orders of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to Iran’s armed forces. He continued:
We will respond to threats with threats but also that we will not always wait for the threats by the enemy to respond.
He also claimed that more foreign spy drones have been captured by the Iranian armed forces, but he refused to give details. He claimed details would be provided by the appropriate officials at the military’s General Headquarters.
Also on Sunday, Brigadier General Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan announced that the Iranian army will soon stage a major drill to display its might and capabilities. He added that the latest achievements of the army will also be unveiled.
Ayatollah Khamenei, who months ago ordered the Revolutionary Guards to begin preparations to arm their missiles with nuclear warheads, has recently ordered the Guards and the Iranian army to prepare for war. Khamenei has asked that the nuclear enrichment process be expedited.
Kayhan newspaper, the mouthpiece of the supreme leader, published an editorial Sunday declaring that the enrichment process at the underground facility of Fordow near the city of Qom will begin shortly, and that the centrifuges have been assembled and tests completed. Kayhan claimed victory in announcing that Iran is now enriching uranium at two sites, Natanz and Fordow, and claimed that this is Iran’s response to its enemy, the West.
Western intelligence learned about the secret Fordow enrichment facility, which is deep underground, in September 2009. Fordow is under Guards’ supervision and contains more advanced centrifuges. The officials of the Islamic regime believe that the site cannot be attacked and destroyed easily, and have decided to transfer much of the 20 percent enriched uranium stockpile to this site, where the enrichment process will continue.
By the time uranium is enriched to 20 percent, nine-tenths of the effort to reach weapons-grade enrichment has been achieved.
Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the author of the award winning book, A Time to Betray. He is a senior Fellow with EMPact America and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).
This could ate been stopped 20 years ago.
Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz?
Nobody has responded better to this threat than the piece “To Iran: Go Ahead, Make Our Day”. The analogy of Dirty Harry is quite appropriate. It would give the US and Israel the perfect excuse to not only blast the Iranian navy out of the water but to finally bomb the nuclear facilities.
The whole thesis at http://robbingamerica.blogspot.com/2011/12/to-iran-go-ahead-make-our-day.html
“Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz?”
This threat is going to loose it’s teeth when the pipeline through the United Arab Emirates is finished(June). It’s amazing what happens when we let the locals take care of their own problems.
Closing Hormuz is easy. Keeping it closed it is not. Mainly because the US Navy would argue against the closure with all of its debating tools. And the navies of many more countries would be willing to help.
What do they eat if they can’t sell their OWN oil ?
Anyway it could be good, they shut off Hormuz, we and the Brits bomb them (I mean, all the revolutionary guard bases, ports, refineries (refinery), roads, electrical power plants and distribution grid) for two moths, before and after reopening the Strait, Israel uses the occasion to bomb their nuclear facilities…
All ends well and the mad mullahs will have to face their people, who will ask for a lot of answers.
Bingo.
Oh, I forgot, we have the Manchurian Candidate as President.
My bad.
I believe Iran can and will shut down the straight. It will rapidly reopen about 30 minutes after our navy arrives.
You estimate here rests upon the assumption that Iran will position themselves and react in a way that is in accord with how US Forces expect them to. This hasn’t worked well in our last several wars if you have noticed, and I don’t think Iran would be quite so… indulging.
I think they would actually be quite willing close the straights if pushed. If they ACTUALLY did it, it would mean they were prepared to do it for quite some time. Not sure how many burning supertankers it would take before their captains would refuse to make the trip.
“the assumption that Iran will position themselves and react in a way that is in accord with how US Forces expect them to. This hasn’t worked well in our last several wars if you have noticed”
That’s actually exactly the way Saddam behaved- twice.
Supertankers don’t burn themselves alone in high sea.
Iran would need to hit them with missiles from the mainland. You don’t stop a Supertanker with shoulder missiles shot from a fast boat. At best you scratch the paint out of them. Any ship the IRI have would be taken out in few hours. Small boat would be very ineffective if the supertankers had a detachment of Marines on board when they pass Hormuz.
They are leaved with missiles shot from the mainland, but without radar and a means to detect incoming targets, they could, at best, shot blindly in the strait.
In the meantime, the US Navy and its airplanes will bomb anything of military importance. It will be interesting how the turban headed will be able to keep their population down with their thugs killed and without heavy weapons.
Well, if there are any warhawks in the Pentagon waiting to take Iran down a peg, they must be rubbing their hands in glee.
The irony is that if Iran succeeds in using their copycat missiles or shallow water Russian diesel “Merrimacs” to inflict damage on the U.S. Navy they will be pummeled into the next century. It’s easy to see a red line for the U.S. but not so easy to see this as a red line for Iran. My guess is Iran will back off. If they don’t look for a “Persian Spring.”
The iranians can close the straits, how long the straits stay closed after that is up to the President of the United States. I know iran can close the shipping lanes, I also know the USN can open them damned fast. What I don’t know is if the POTUS will or will not allow the USN to open the straits. He has not acted in the syrian events and only helped so much in the libya events.
I doubt seriously we would attempt to open the shipping lanes preferring instead to let the arabs take care of the way to convince iran to relent and open the area to safe shipping. leading from behind and staying out of iran’s affairs will trump action.
I believe HMS Daring and the French carrier ‘Charles de Gaulle’ are planning to enter the Persian Gulf sometime later this month. That means the Iranian nazi ruling clique will have to attack or eat crow. Either would be good.
If (as is likeliest) they attack, the only question left then will be: does the West (US, UK, France) hit them gradually and incrementally (i.e. sink the Iranian ‘navy’s’ speedboats and see what happens) or go all in and demolish the nuke sites and the regime itself? No invasion or occupation, just relentless demolition from the air.
One thing’s for sure, if Iran decides to hit our forces in Afghanistan or to strike at Qatar and the UAE et al., the West will have no reason left to not go all in.
I cannot think of any examples offhand of elective wars which were started in which the offensive side did not have at least a reasonable chance of success.
There are examples I can think of limited engements with limited goals such as Hamas attacking Israel, knowing that retaliation will be minimal. I suppose Iran could be planning some sort of limited show of force from which it will quickly withdraw. Playing chiocken with the USN doesn’t seem to smart.
It is possible that the Revolutionary Guards believe in their own BS to the point where they think they can close the Staits or attack a US ship and cause enough damage that they can in some way win. Winning can mean a Hezbolla style “win” in which mere survival is a victory despite disproportionate actual losses. The US however, unlike Israel, will not be forced to an early cease fire so that is a very stupid strategy. Even Hezzies are not trying that now and Hamas is giving up for the time being.
It is possible that this is all just rhetoric. Perhaps they think this will somehow influence US elections and public opinion. Perhaps they are willing to take a hit in order to shore up domestic support. Making empty threats though is hardly a good propoganda strategy. Wait, this is the ME where that stuff works. Maybe they are just nuts.
A favorite sci-fi theme is an encounter between ourselves and an alien race resulting in conflict because the two sides cannot communicate. In the classic novel “Enders Game” a huge catastrophic war between Earth and the “buggers” happens because the aliens at first to not even realize we are sentient beings and cannot find a way to communicate until it is too late. Iran may find itself in the same situation if they continue on this course.
I cannot understand what the Iranians are thinking but clearly it is based on emotions rather than a rational strategy. That is why we must confront any provocative action with a decisive blow. No proportional response or limited engagement. Otherwise we will be stuck, like Israel in a permanent war.
Except of course, that the US et al. are the offensive side in this scenerio. Unless, of course, I missed where Iran had over a hundred thousand troops, several allied nations, and massive sea and air capabilities on our border.
Iran has not taken offensive military action yet. They are threatening closing the straits to shipping. They are quite correct that even a brief disruption will cause turmoil in energy and other markets. This is indeed a threat to US and other economies trying hard to recover from recession. That is why UK, France, Gulf States, are moving and coordinating military assets to keep this vital economic waterway open to trade. Trade is what puts food on the table and keeps the lightbulbs lit.
Closing this waterway would be, should it happen, a very offensive and risky strategy. It would hurt Iranians very hard. So, why are they even making such noise? Brave Iranian sailors and pilots in the face of overwhelming superiority. For what?
Answer that. They cannot in any way defeat what is allied against them. Only lose what military assets they have assembled.
No nation building. No ideals of democracy. So far US forces are building a wall and preparing. Flying speedboats and shiny copy missiles can kill but get real here.
It is irrational strategy from what still exists in Iran. The regime is on the ropes. Not much further to go.
They are threatening closing the straits to shipping.”
- Considering that they are literally surrounded by the US and are being threatened with attack, I can understand why they would say this.
“Closing this waterway would be, should it happen, a very offensive and risky strategy.”
- If we attack them first, like so many are pushing for, what other way could they respond? It’s not like they could send out their carrier groups out to fight ours. They’ll fight however they can.
“It would hurt Iranians very hard. So, why are they even making such noise?”
- I remember a line from The Bard: “Tempt not a desperate man.”
“They cannot in any way defeat what is allied against them.”
- They don’t HAVE to. The problem as I see it, is that you are still looking at it like an American would. They don’t have out abilities or assets. They don’t have a bunch of brand new flashy toys that go “ZOOOOM! WHOOSH!! KERPOW!!” If powerful military is all that is needed to win, then I’m glad the Taliban was totally destroyed and Afghanistan rendered safe for democracy 5 years ago…
“Flying speedboats and shiny copy missiles can kill but get real here.”
- Very short sighted. The point is, yes, they CAN KILL. They don’t have to sink all our carrier groups. They don’t have to destroy 500 tankers. They don’t have to wipe out or capture 20 divisions of American infantry. They just have to kill/destroy… enough. More to the point, they fully realize that to REALLY hurt us, all they have to do is hit us in the oil can and wait us out. Make gas go up enough, which it will, VERY QUICKLY, and economics will destroy us first. They understand the economic weapon.
Plus, they could cause additional trouble. Sending a bunch of men under cover to overwhelmingly Shiite Iraq and stirring it up would do nicely, for example.
“The regime is on the ropes.”
- Which is why we should LEAVE THEM ALONE. Attacking them would more solidify the nation against US than against them. You don’t bomb people into liking you.
The weapons they have are more than enough right now. As the captain of the Stark back in ’87 what he thinks of ‘cheap missiles’.
“I cannot understand what the (Americans) are thinking but clearly it is based on emotions rather than a rational strategy.”
Fixed it for ya.
“I cannot think of any examples offhand of elective wars which were started in which the offensive side did not have at least a reasonable chance of success.”
WWI (the great example of offense/defense theory)
WWII
Napoleon’s march on moscow (oops)
The spanish armada (double oops)
Pretty much everything the ottoman empire ever did
Every single attack on (modern day) israel.
Nobody starts an elective war they don’t think they can win. That doesn’t mean they’re right, though
After the Joker gave away one of our drones we have no expectations of what they will do should the mad mullahs decide to close the straits. Ozero might ask them to stop.
Ah such a short memory? Recall the first shots fired when Iran attempted to overtake Kuwait?
Who ran first for cover? One shot its over.
Lets do it even without firing a shot, why dont we just turn the water off at the pipeline in Kuwait? no water, need I say more. I am not in the intelligence field but I just want to know where are the advanced thinkers that run our country? What are they doing? Have they thought of this? If so as Larry the cable guy would say GIT ER DONE
I doubt the One prays, but if he does, he’s praying for Iran to close the strait along about late September or early October. The One could pound their “navy,” reopen the strait, and enjoy a huge electoral bounce.
Hmmm. Are those Mullahs crafty enough to time it that way to assure (at least) four more years of non-interference with their nuclear ambitions? They are crafty.
I was wondering about the same scenario.
If this keeps up, it will end badly. For us.
Stop this codpiece-polishing stupidity.
Yup. I highly doubt the U.S.mil believes a CBG is safe in the PG. They will move that group out of the gulf and try to operate 200-300 miles out in the Arabian Sea. This drastically reduces operational effectiveness over the Iranian coast around the Strait. The Iranians will have dug in coastal based missile and artillery pounding anything tries to approach the Strait. The terrain is mountainous and it will be nearly impossible for any air campaign to suppress the dug in and mobile coastal units. (Kosovo 1999 and Lebanon 2006). The U.S. risks an outright loss in this one, unless they invade with a huge force like D-Day(massive casualties) or go nuclear. In other words, go all in or sue for peace at point to restore the flow of oil.
Advice : Don’t do it.
I somewhat agree. Certainly anybody with some $$$ (and Russian military consultants) can buy the necessary weapons to blow tankers out of the water and yes, they can remain effective by hiding out in the hills for a couple of months, perhaps longer. But at what price?
All naval, air force and major bases destroyed in a few weeks and no doubt the nuclear facilities. Just have to believe that green party insiders will give away all locations. On top of this they have cut off part of China’s oil supply.
Sane logic says they won’t do it, but then again, Hitler delusively invaded Russia and we know there’s no limit on stupid!
The time and place for resolving this was under W. Bush: he was restrained from handling it. Now, as Mike in KC writes, “…it will end badly. For us.” We are a collapsing empire; we are in the hands of a new dictator – the Republic is gone – the new masters of this nation seek its destruction – he and his puppeteers have successfully bankrupted this country; the Dictator stands with Islam. It is time for the “WE ARE AMERICAAAAA!” BS to stop: if we were Americaaaa! Obama, his crew, and the banksters would be decorating lamp posts up and down Pennsylvania Avenue.
Remember Qaddafi’s ‘Line of Death’?
Remember Saddam’s ‘Mother of all Battles’?
Remember Baghdad Bob saying the US assault had been crushed, while the press could actually *see* US tanks outside the window?
Remember Nasser in ’67 crowing that the Arab armies were at the gates of Tel Aviv?
That entire part of the world seems to live in some bizarre and deleterious alternate reality. Periodically battering them into shutting up changes nothing, not really. What Islam needs is an equivalent of the Protestant Reformation (but without the 30 Years War).
Mission accomplished
Slam dunk
Clear and present danger
They’ll greet us as liberators
Sometime, hopefully, in the not too distant future, the U.S. will realize that they are fighting assymetrical warfare in the M.E. and that the rules of engagement and response are not equal to western values.
Iran, like it has for the last 10 years of building atomics, only needs to baffle and lie and play diplomatic games (talk) until it has its objective. Reasonable is not an operant concept. Now they are driving up oil prices by their threats, and reforming the alliances of the superpowers in a disruptive modality. Those both win for the mad mullahs. They may even push their game to a little war and forgiveness, just to prod the great satans. Their end game remains the same even if the path to world jihad is a little snakey.
The west remains self handicapping.
The goal of all weapons technology is to ensure asymmetrical warfare so I’m not sure why the U.S. military would be unaware of their dominance. The U.S. is not going to fight with one hand behind its back for reasons of fair play.
The weapons technology as assymetrical is a good line. I was talking about cultural difference. Check out the rules of engagement in Afghanistan for the handicapping. Western values which were attempted to be rewritten in the Bush docterine ascribe that one has to wait to be shot at before shooting back. The pragmatic question to follow is: if someone threatens you with an empty gun, do you have the right to shoot first?
I assumed we were discussing the Straits of Hormuz. There will be no rules of engagement that prevent massive retaliation should Iran kill U.S. personnel as sea. This is an Iranian navy with military vessels and there are no questions of civilian personnel such as Afghanistan. Yes, a real and conspicuous target not hiding behind civilian garb.
Why does Jimmy Carter hug the muslims to this day?
To help his doppelganger get re-elected in a strategic way.
The Iranians have been rattling their sabers for many years to cause the price of their black gold to rise. They take this to the bank. Closing the straits of Hormuz is very unlikely unless they have a nuke to defend themselves from retaliation. If it’s true that all politics is local maybe this whole thing is intended to stave off any thoughts by the opposition in Iran from taking an opportunity to take to the streets and hang em high.
The Iranian rulers are delusional but threats and brinkmanship is their game. They are masters at it. They’re still here and Saddam is dead and buried.
How can Obama guarantee that he will be elected? Its a simple answer. All he has to do is manipulate the situation to cause a crisis which will involve our military. Right now he is playing the carrot and the stick game. Should his reelection be threatened, a battle with Iran would be in order. The US public would rally around him like bees on migration. It would work because most of us are patriotic and would quickly join the cause. I might not like Obama but I would join the battle as quick as I could.
If we are very, very lucky, the Venezuelan Navy will help Iran attack us.
A few words.
First, closing the straits is an act of war.
Second, Iran learned the lesson of Libya; no bomb and you are vulnerable, with one you have “captured the flag.” They will never give up the idea of a nuclear weapons for that reason.
Third, ‘if” they try to close the straits they will probably use mines. This is an act of war inviting overwhelming retaliation.
Fourth, it would be a military action that plays to our strengths i.e. air and naval power. And whatever methods the Iranians use to close the water way it would be terrific training for the aforementioned forces.
Fifth, would anyone like to bet against the idea that the Saudis and anyone else who can pull a barrel of oil out of the ground hasn’t already signaled that they will do their damnedest to make up any loss?
Sixth, …35% …gasoline prices will rise, etc., etc., etc. But riddle me this, who of all the plays will have existential fixed assets in the game? Existential! Dream on if you think any facility is invulnerable to destruction however deeply buried. And when the straits open again who will be left without any port facilities, refineries, tank farms, oil pipelines… need I go on with this? They would have started out with sanctions and ended with nothing!
Seventh, an Iranian attempt to close the straits would be God send for the world.
“First, closing the straits is an act of war.”
For the people who ship their oil through it. If the Iranians do try and close the Strait of Hormuz, I imagine it will take the Saudis all of five minutes to open it back up using the weapons we’ve sold them.
Note: let’s not forget the pipeline being built through the United Arab Emirates that will make closing it completely meaningless.
“Second, Iran learned the lesson of Libya; no bomb and you are vulnerable, with one you have “captured the flag.””
Not really. After all, it’s not like Pakistan was able to scare us off with their laughable nuclear weapons.
When and if Iran gets nuclear weapons they will suck.(Bad fuel + poor design + no long distance deliver device).
“Fifth, would anyone like to bet against the idea that the Saudis and anyone else who can pull a barrel of oil out of the ground hasn’t already signaled that they will do their damnedest to make up any loss?”
I think they’ve learned their lesson from the last time they allowed oil prices to spike and watched their food prices go through the roof. They will make up the difference for fear of riots and a violent upheaval.
“Seventh, an Iranian attempt to close the straits would be God send for the world.”
Iran’s a paper tigers compared to us. Minus idiotic nation-building, a war with them would take 5 seconds. (The blowback would end up causing more damage than the actual war)
“a war with them would take 5 seconds.”
- Just like Iraq.
Mike, he did say “minus the idiotic nation-building”.
From the perspective of a contrarian: Closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause the world some pain; it would also cut off eighty percent of Iran’s income. Most of the unrest in the middle east is being financed by Iran. Closing the Strait for an extended period would cause most of the turmoil in the region to cease within a few months. Imagine no more rockets raining down on Israel from Hezbollah. Imagine no more bombings in Iraq. etc.
I suggest that the world bite the bullet and suffer the short term pain to achieve the greater long term gain.
If the strait is closed then won’t shipping companies will go the long way around. If a tanker is sunk , or even if it is not but if it is perceived the threat is real, expect alternatives to be energetically explored and a long term solution discovered.
Maybe we could widen the strait ? I understand there are still considered to be too many old hydrogen bombs in inventory that we need to get rid of somehow. Other countries who need that oil may discover they have the same issue.
There’s only one way in or out of the gulf. They could fill up on another side of saudi arabia … but somebody would have to build some pipes first.
The initial problem is capacity – there isn’t enough pipework to get the oil out of the region fast enough to make up lost capacity if the gulf is closed. So expect a big up-front investment and a delay of many months while any sort of replacement is constructed.
The ongoing problem is pumping costs. Pumping takes energy. Shipping is far cheaper.
I would hate to be a sailor in the Iranian navy at this point.
Pretty much.
I’m not sure what they think they’re doing. Any actual attempt to close the strait will be met initially by a US attempt to try to avoid hurting the iranians, and then it’ll all be over fairly quickly.