Election Predictions from PJ Media Columnists
Will Obama win re-election in a nail-biter? Is a landslide victory in the cards for Romney? Do Republicans have a shot at taking control of the Senate? Find out what Roger L. Simon, VDH, Spengler, Claudia Rosett, Roger Kimball, and the rest of PJM's columnists think will happen on Tuesday ... (Updated with prediction from Andrew C. McCarthy)
November 5, 2012 - 12:00 am
Romney is going to win, big time. Why? I can tell you in three syllables and a few numbers. The syllables are: Ben-gha-zi. We will not get to the bottom of the cover-up of why Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans were left to die in that god-forsaken Libyan city, their desperate calls for help repeatedly ignored, before the election. But it has been clear for some time now that there was a cover-up of major proportions. The story is not being pursued by the New York Times or other representatives of the legacy media. (Just imagine what round-the-clock howls of indignation and rage the legacy media would be emitting over this heinous bit of political calculation were there a Republican administration in office!) But the studied “hear-no-evil, see-no-evil, report-no-evil” if it comes from the Left has not done the trick this time. The “Fast and Furious” scandal, which has left scores of Mexicans and at least two Americans dead, has been effectively keep from public consciousness. This is not the case with the Benghazi scandal. Hardly a day goes by now when more details are revolved and repeated by the alternative media from giants like Fox News to the hundreds of bloggers that do the job the legacy media has avoided. As my colleague Roger L. Simon suggested on PJ Media last week, even if (per impossible) Obama were reelected, he would likely face impeachment proceedings of a virulence that would make Watergate appear like a walk through the park.
But Benghazi is a late-breaking scandal. I had put Romney down as the victor long before the September 11 attacks in Libya. The reason can be summed up in a few numbers:
$16 trillion: the amount of the federal debt.
$1 trillion: the amount of money we are now paying out in welfare benefits.
$1-point-something trillion: the size of the deficits Obama has run every year he’s been in office.
23 million: the number of Americans un- or underemployed.
7.9 percent: the current official unemployment rate (the real rate is much higher).
46.37 million: the number of people on food stamps.
$4-plus: the price per gallon for gasoline.
You can extend the list. For the first time in his life, Barack Obama has to run on his record, not his race. There is no way to look at the numerical profile of his tenure and come to any other conclusion than that it has been an unmitigated disaster. Blaming George Bush, or Europe, or global warming, or the Republicans just won’t wash. Obama’s policies, minted in the left-wing, spread-the-wealth-around ideological factory, are clearly to blame. People understand this in their bones. The next four years under Obama would be same as the last four years, only worse, because we would be that much poorer, that much more heavily regulated, that much more under the thumb of an engorging activist governmental bureaucracy.
No, Obama is toast.And for the same reason, Republicans will also take the Senate, and by more than a couple of seats.Tuesday, I predict, will be a blood bath for Democrats as fiscal reality, not to mention a sense of enraged national honor, washes like a tsunami over the hapless Democratic Party, denuded now of everything except a viperish petulance and demand for what the President tellingly called “revenge.” The adults in the political process are just about to make a big comeback, which will be good for the country but decidedly unpleasant for the party of redistribution and statist triumphalism.
– In addition to his work at PJ Media and The New Criterion, Roger Kimball is the publisher of Encounter Books, a purveyor of serious non-fiction titles from a broadly construed conservative perspective.
Who is going to win the presidency? I don’t know. Furthermore, nobody else does either. Everyone is biased; everyone has an agenda. Even those who imagine themselves to be neutral.
There are actually three kinds of bias this year when it comes to political predictions: Liberals who invariably declare Obama will win; conservatives who invariably declare Romney will win; and neutral nonpartisan analysts who invariably insist that it’s possible to predict the outcome at all. But they’re all wrong.
The most important PJ Media post I made this season is “WE ARE THE 91%: Only 9% of Americans Cooperate with Pollsters.” That’s really all you need to know: Every single poll is a joke, because only 9% of people even cooperate with them. There is almost certainly a huge self-selection bias among the 91% who refuse to participate, meaning that as a group they most likely share some characteristics. And since this group of stubborn unknowns is literally ten times the size of the sample group from which laughable conclusions are being drawn, the potential for massive polling errors is extremely large. For all we know, either Obama or Romney could be up 70-30 or 80-20.
In my post I argued that the non-respondents are more likely to tilt Romney than otherwise, and I still think that’s true. But in reality no one really knows who the non-responders are — by definition their beliefs are unknown.
Since this disqualifies polls and polling from any predictions I may make, all I can go on are vague impressions of “enthusiasm” and “energy” in either political camp. At the moment it really seems like the enthusiasm advantage goes strongly to the Republicans, but that impression is itself basely entirely on media and blog reports, and I have no idea how accurate they are, since the anecdotal reports could be slanting facts as well.
I could lie and say I “know” Romney will win, but that would merely be my attempt to further inspire confidence and enthusiasm among conservative voters. Do I want Romney to win? Yes. Do I suspect he will win? Yes. Do I have a gut feeling he will win? Yes. But that’s all I got. No stats. No numbers. Just a feeling. And the same is true for everyone else on both sides of the aisle, whether they realize it or not.
– Visit Zombie’s PJM blog here.
Romney by an electoral college landslide — more than 300 votes. The swing states will all swing the same way; Romney stuns Obama early in Pennsylvania, then cruises through Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
Romney’s upper Midwest strategy pays off when bellwether Wisconsin pays back the Democrats for their recall treachery and delivers the state to the GOP.
The Republicans keep the House and narrowly retake the Senate, even without Todd Akin, who’s this year’s Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell rolled into one.
There are minor civil disturbances, quickly quelled. On Wednesday, the stock market goes up 300 points. Hiring booms. Flowers bloom. Pretty girls smile again. The sun comes out.
And we do it again four years later.
– Michael Walsh is weekly op-ed columnist for the New York Post and a regular contributor to National Review Online.