Egyptians and Saudis Simulate War with Iran
Egypt and Saudi Arabia are preparing themselves for war with Iran. The two Arab countries just held their first joint military exercises called Tabuk-2 over a one-week period, simulating a scenario unofficially based on a potential conflict with the Iranians. The exercises took place in the northern Egyptian desert and included F-16 aircraft, helicopters, and artillery units. The forces practiced defending against an enemy offensive and counter-attacking with an invasion into the attacker’s territory.
The Israeli intelligence website Debkafile accurately analyzes what this scenario means. They note that the commander of the Saudi forces in the exercise was Prince Khaled Bin Sultan of the Ministry of Defense and Aviation. His most recent experience was in leading the Saudi forces fighting the extremist Shiite Houthis in Yemen that spearheaded a proxy war waged by Iran. The Egyptians and Saudis are preparing to defend Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province from an Iranian assault. This province is about three-fourths Shiite and is the location of about 90 percent of the Saudi oil production. It is ripe for instability and Iranian-backed subversion.
These exercises indicate that the Egyptians are committed to quickly sending reinforcements to the Saudis in the event of Iranian intervention in the Eastern Province, as well as a joint counter-offensive into western Iran to force the regime to pull back its forces. Iran has experienced much internal strife in this area, particularly in the Arab-populated province of Khuzestan. This province holds 90 percent of Iran’s oil production, making it the Iranian equivalent of the Saudi Eastern Province. The Egyptians and Saudis seem to believe that the Arabs in this area, as well as possibly other disgruntled minorities, will rise up in arms against the regime. Acts of violence by these minorities against the regime’s security forces, military bases, and infrastructure have been rising in recent years.
The two Arab countries have a right to be worried. The Iranian proxy war in Yemen showed that the regime is becoming increasingly aggressive in the Gulf. And shortly after the Egyptian government arrested 49 Hezbollah operatives in April 2009 for involvement in a terrorist plot, the terrorist group called for the overthrow of the moderate Arab regimes, specifically that of Egypt. The country’s prime minister flatly stated that Hezbollah had “virtually declared war.” During the fighting in Yemen, the Iranian regime threatened to bring the violence to Saudi territory and warned the royal family that their actions could cause their overthrow.
And what will countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt do once Iran gets a nuclear weapon? By most estimates, Iran is about a year away from getting such a weapon. We have been concentrating on what effects an Iranian nuclear capability will have on Israel, but few people are talking about how other Sunni nations in the Middle East will react once Iran gets a nuclear weapon. I doubt they will feel safe and I’m sure that, if either Israel or the United States does not do something, they will. Either the other gulf states will get their own nuclear weapons, or they will do something dramatic against Iranian interests in the area. Obama really, really, does not seem to understand or care about the way the Middle East is about to blow up in the next year or so.
This alien regime would love to pick a fight to show its legitimacy. The people of Iran have rejected it. A war is not what we need. Talking about them in the correct context is mandatory.
who remembers molotov – ribbentrop? does the US state dept?
Well, not to put a too fine point on it, but recently received my gas mask-as have many others-and also many mailings are going out to citizens on how best to be prepared on the civilian front-just in case.
It is always wiser to be safe than sorry, and it is also important to correctly read the tea leaves.
DEBKA and this report support the increased reality on the ground here.Delusional thinking is a recipe for disaster in this neck of the globe. Our citizens are preparing accordingly.
Adina (or Ryan if you’re reading) — why does the article postulate that Israel would not be “first on the chopping block” — but rather Egypt or Saudi Arabia. Admittedly Iran hates Saudi Arabia, but would it not want to first attempt to destroy Israel? Or is the thinking that it would would prefer to attack countries that it knows would not be able to respond with a nuclear arsenal, thus “maximizing” the destructiveness in preparation for the 12th Mahdi… and only after turning its attention to Israel?
Any takers to this question?
I have often wondered this myself, who the Iranian Hitler would hit first.I suspect it would be the Saudis etc, simply because I ascribe to the theory that he is not deterred by MAD simply because he dreams of an apocalyptic 12th Imam/Mahdi ushering. He understands that if Saudis and others are hit, then Israel will NOT hesitate to use its FORMIDABLE WMD arsenal, knowing what soon is to come their way.Therefore, the response of our well known Samson Option would suit this madman to a tee.
If Iran obtain the A-Bomb it will find that using it will be very dangerous.
If Iran use it against Israel, it will be subject to retaliation by Israel (and maybe others), unable to attack in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
If Iran use it against the Saudis, Iraq and Egypt, Israel will have a reason to preempt them before becoming the next target. Not to say that the US would be hard pressed to defend the Saudis and their oilfields.
They must succeed with bride and blackmail, but they must avoid at any cost to pick a real fight; they could win or they could lose the fight, anyway they would come out crippled and dead. Their window of opportunity (economic and demographic) will close in few years.
How about the Iranians hand the bomb off to Al-Qaeda and sail it into NYC? Do you think Obama would retaliate against Iran?
Hopefully, this will not cause Israel’s leadership to lower its guard. Those same military exercises could also be useful in attacking Israel from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, along with a northern front of Hezbollah and Syria.
And please stop with the exaggerated claim that Iran is seen by the Saudis as their greatest enemy. Iran may be more likely to attack Saudi Arabia currently, but long term, the Saudis and the Egyptians can make their peace with a less threatening Iranian regime, they cannot, however, accept the legitimacy of a Jewish state in the region.
I think we in the West should be prepared for an exponential increase in terrorism in our own countries, should the Middle East go up in flames, at least in the short term.
RebeccaH, you are right.The west should understand this-wither Israel goes, so too will the rest.If we are left alone and exposed to the Iranian menace, rest assured no one will be safe. This go around we don’t intend to go down quietly, we will take many others down with us.
A word to the wise….and non-deluded.
The best hope for peace in the Middle East is for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. With Israel already nuclear, and the Saudis implicitly backed by the USA, a nuclear Iran is actually a step in the right direction.
Perhaps you would like to be the firewall that stands between Iran and Israel, maybe a (human) shield of sorts.
I’m just saying…..
No, I’m an American living in California.
From my point of view, there are a bunch of religious nutjobs in Israel fighting a Cold War against a bunch of religious nutjobs in Iran.
The best hope for peace, and the best hope for keeping America out of any possible conflict, is for both sides to be in a nuclear stalemate.
Why not give nuclear weapons to every country run by fanatics, especially those who hold rallies calling for the death of that “Great Satan”, the USA? Then everyone in the world can hold hands and sing Kumbaya.
The religious fanatics in Israel are allowed to have nuclear weapons, so why not Iran?
Because we and the Israelis share common political, social, religious and cultural values. Because we and the Israelis believe in political freedom and culturally and socially reside in the 21st or at least the 20th century. With the exception of technological development the Iranians lag behind the Aztecs both socially and in their methods for influencing the actions of the physical and spiritual world around them. Perhaps that explains your affinity for arming Iran.
The lack of any moral equivalence between the two. That’s why. Your suggestion is ridiculous at best.
NUCLEAR IRAN…..A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION???
ExtraStout…you are EXTRA DELUSIONAL.
There is no scenario in which a nuclear Iran is a good thing. Only VERY BAD things will happen if Iran gets the bomb.
Hey Extra, I bet you voted for Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer. That would explain your thinking. I also bet that you think that Obama is good for America.
Here’s Extra’s thinking. Give the children firecrackers, you know they’d never use em.
err, aren’t Iraq and Kuwait in the way? While Arabs are certainly prone to magical thinking, I doubt even they think their own, and Iranian, troops can walk on water.
One problem with Saudi’s and Egyptians… Saudi’s with all their Jets they buy from US don’t know how to fly them (apparently they don’t like to land)…and Egyptians don’t know how to fight…We saw how they did in 67 and Iran/Iraq war. They are good runners.
Saudis and Egyptian can play with their big and expensive toys as much as they want but without US they are nothing. All they are good at is flying airplanes to buildings and
kill innocent people.
There are really no accurate anolygy’s.
A nuclear Iran is a threat to all others in the ME, for sectarian and racial reasons. The danger to Iran is that this could be a uniting force for the rest of the ME.
On paper a nuclear Iran is more powerful but is somewhat like the Nazi Deutchland class cruiser (pocket battleship). Faster than anything as powerful and more powerful than anything as fast…in reality it could not pick a fight with anything which could fight back…..as the Graf Spee proved in the Battle of the River Plate.
The Red Chinese called such “paper tigers”…..
It seems that the Israelis will have to do the arabs’ dirty work for them. Irony?