Egypt: Three Possible Outcomes
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,/But to be young was very heaven!–Oh! times,/
What temper at the prospect did not wake/To happiness unthought of?/ The inert
Were roused, and lively natures rapt away!
So wrote the English poet William Wordsworth about the French Revolution; so feel many Arabs at this moment of apparent long-awaited revolution in some of the Arabic-speaking and dictatorship-ruled states of the Middle East. But Wordsworth’s enthusiasm soon evaporated with the Great Terror of the French Revolution and its aggressive policies that led to a quarter-century of war. Only a century later did a stable French republic actually emerge.
This kind of concern and pessimism may not be what people want to hear — and it certainly isn’t what they are hearing from “experts” and mass media — but policymakers and publics better start thinking seriously along such lines.
Consider recent precedents in this regard:
1. Iranian revolution, 1978-1979: Mass protests by a wide coalition against dictatorship. Result? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now president.
2. Beirut Spring: Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Druze unite against Syrian control. Moderate government gains power. Result? Hezbollah is now running Lebanon.
3. Palestinians have free elections: Voters protest against corrupt regime. Result? Hamas is now running the Gaza Strip.
4. Algeria holds free elections: Voters back moderate Islamist group. Result? Military coup; Islamists turn (or reveal their true thinking) radical; tens of thousands of people killed.
But what do Egyptians really think? According to a recent Pew poll, they are extremely radical even in comparison to Jordan or Lebanon. When asked whether they preferred “Islamists” or “modernizers,” the score was 59% to 27% in favor of the Islamists. In addition, 20 percent said they liked al-Qaeda; 30 percent, Hezbollah; 49 percent, Hamas. And this was at a time that their government daily propagandized against these groups.
How about religious views? Egyptian Muslims said the following: 82 percent want adulterers punished with stoning; 77 percent want robbers to be whipped and have their hands amputated; 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
In a democracy, of course, these views are going to be expressed by how people vote. Even if Egypt does not have an Islamist government, it might well end up with a radical regime that caters to these attitudes and incites violence abroad.
There are reasons not to expect Egypt to turn into a moderate, stable, and democratic state: There are few forces favoring this outcome; the rebellion has no organization; Egypt doesn’t have the resources to raise living standards and distribute wealth; extremist ideologies are deeply held and widely spread.
There are basically three possibilities for the outcome:
First, the establishment and army stick together, get rid of Mubarak, but preserve the regime. The changes put in charge a former Air Force commander (the same job Mubarak once held) and the intelligence chief. The elite stays united, toughs it out, does a skillful combination of coopting and repressing the demonstrations, and offering some populist reforms. The old regime continues. In that case, it is only a minor adjustment.
Disgusted with the Mubaraks — Hosni’s stubborn refusal to step down; his son Gamal’s disgraceful cowardice, showing he fully deserved his insulting nickname “the boy” — the regime throws them overboard.
Mr. Rubin:
There is a fourth possibility. The mass uprisings lead to a democratic government and an open media, and the Islamists, (including the schmucks who blame Israel and the USA for all the troubles in the world), are shown for the professional “grievance lobby” that they are.
It took a shipmate of mine to remark that these protests to bring down tyrants and dictators is EXACTLY what George W. Bush TOLD us would happen with the establishment of a working democracy in Iraq.
I’ve gummed it over all day, and the more I chew it, the more it tastes like the fruit of our victory in Iraq.
The mass uprisings are taking place in the most westernized of Muslim nations, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan, (and now Albania), PRECISELY BECAUSE being the most open societies, they are the ones where people have the most access to outside information and are free enough to communicate their common desires to have a say in the way their government runs…just like the Iraqis.
Buck up gang, the War in Iraq has been won… this is what victory looks like. But the struggle to spread democracy throughout the Middle East has just opened several new fronts.
Yes, this means that Islamist groups will have their say in these lands’ political discourse, and that means that we had better be engaged there also, supporting those factions that are more friendly to us and our interests.
We will lose these battles by disengaging from what is happening and writing these popular uprisings off.
And y’know, even if the uprisings and the overthrows were authored by Islamists, where is it written that WE cannot steal a revolution for our ends?
Liberty and Property is a powerful temptation and it’s own reward,(as well being a royal PITA…like being married to a beautiful woman).
Bilgeman, you are practically the definition of an optimist.
It’s sure a pity that pessimists generally make far more accurate predictions.
You are a fool… Bush’s invasion of Iraq will go down in history as of of the greatest military blunders of all time. Saddam was a Sunni. He was a dictator. He used brutal methods to keep the majority Sunnis/radical Islamists under control. Iraq is 70% Shia, 30% Sunni. The Sunnis and Shias have been fighting each other for the last 1000 years. The US did a huge favor for the Shias. We deposed the Sunni dictator who was brutally repressing them. We handed them a victory they were unable to achieve on their own. Saddam was a STABILIZING FORCE in the Middle East. Bush made a TREMENDOUS BLUNDER by removing him. Now that Saddam is gone, the Iranian Shiites will take over Iraq. By removing Saddam, Bush expanded the boundaries of Iran…
Bush is a fool… with his “freedom agenda”, and “spreading democracy”…
(Bush and the “neocons” adapted Woodrow Wilson’s foreign policy… look it up.)
“…greatest military blunders of all time.” Ha,ha,ha,ha,ha! Greater than Canae? The Somme? Antietam? Passchendaele? Ypres? Kursk? What’s that…? You’ve never heard of ANY of these names? We are not surprised.
The Middle-East mistakes are always of the same form: we depose one faction and replace them with a different faction of the same people. Look at history for the correct answer: depose the ruling faction and replace them with your own puppet government. We’ve been waiting since about 700 A.D. for any decent (forget democratic) Mohammedan government to remain in power for more than a couple of decades. We can now see the Attaturk government in Turkey for the brief interlude it was. Anybody who studied world history in high school prior to 1965 could have predicted this, but the whiz-bang elites running America were clueless, and still are, and, for whatever reason, will remain so.
I hope you are correct but will bet you a case of beer that the muslim brotherhood will be at the helm of egypt at the end of this …whether they are openly displaying their flag will only be a matter of time …they will control the next government.
“I hope you are correct but will bet you a case of beer that the muslim brotherhood will be at the helm of egypt at the end of this …whether they are openly displaying their flag will only be a matter of time …they will control the next government.”
Hey, I can’t claim a crystal ball anymore than anyone else, but things are being tossed in the air across the Maghreb now, and if we want to catch the goodies when they fall back to earth, we’d be best advised to run outside with our baskets at the ready.
The only guarantee we have that the Pig Fornicators will take the helm is if we write that off as a foregone conclusion, right?
To Hell with that. Get in there and block, damn it!
It may very well be that the Islamists DO carry the day, (although I reckon the Egyptians are more canny than that with their experience of the United Arab Republic, they and Syria, back in the day. From what I gather the Egyptians’ takeaway from that experience was that the Arabs were willing to fight Israel to the last drop of Egyptian blood, and the last pound of Egyptian treasure.)
I would note though, that the people of Iran don’t seem too “down” with their theocracy and the people of Lebanon have expressed their displeasure with Hezbollah. The fact of the matter is that the Grievance Lobbies just aren’t very good at governing a peaceable and prosperous nation,(refer to Pelosi, et al in our own recent history).
Do we recognize the revolutions that we ourselves fostered?
And lastly, while we talk a good game of Liberty and Democracy and respect of private property, are we willing to walk it like we talk it?
I don’t know if you have been to Egypt or any muslim dominated country. I think if you had your comments might be a bit different.
the brotherhood have been working on this for years ..they have a significant following. There is no strong horse like the USA to emulate (most of the people would like the opportunities americans have and the majority have no issue with americans).. so even with a small % the brotherhood have a strong influence and no organized opposition.
“I don’t know if you have been to Egypt or any muslim dominated country. I think if you had your comments might be a bit different.”
I lived in Tunis for two years back in the late 70′s and have been a merchant seaman for nigh 25 years before the mast.
Been through Suez half a dozen times, dumped off 50k tons of wheat at Damietta, was a flotational SCUD target at Jubail in Saudi in 1991, dumped off another 50k tons of wheat in Karachi in ’88, (right when General Zia’s airplane went “BOOM” and fell out of the sky), sat at anchor off of Bahrein on a 10 days “on the hook” and 2 days at the dock in ’95 on a military cargo ship helping to keep Saddam in his cage while most of the US population thought we were at “Peace”.
Sailed LASH ships diddy-bopping around the Red Sea, (and other places with “interesting” plumbing fixtures),dropping of full and picking up empty barges at Jordan, Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti, (sea temperature in Sudan in August was 91′ Fahrenheit…fun being in the engine room of a steamship, that).
Started my seagoing career in ’87 on an LNG tanker shuttling between onloading ports on Borneo and Sumatra in Indonesia and offloading in Japan.
So it is what it is and “I yam what I yam”, (as Popeye would say).
“the brotherhood have been working on this for years ..they have a significant following.”
Sure they have, is this surprising? The Communists fished in troubled waters also. One of the reasons that the M-B was able to survive was that “our bastards” in ourder to be perceived as “ours”, had to go after the Marxists, who were notably secular…incurably so in fact, and so chaps like Mubarak and Bourguiba and King Hussein could afford to ignore what was going on in the mosques while putting the Internal Security “Eye of Sauron” on the Reds agitating for Moscow in the unions.
Now that the Communists are on the ash-heap of history, (everywhere outside of the DemocRat Party, the US Liberal Moonbat Sweat Lodge and George Soros’ wet dreams), the threat is coming out of the Islamist side…simply since that was where any kind of opposition could survive.
Let’s go back to Iran in 1978 for a minute. The riots that overthrew the Shah were a popular uprising. Ayatollah Buttplug didn’t get off the plane from Paris until the Shah had absquatulated and SAVAK were bolting for the exits. The common people of Iran did all the “heavy lifting”, (and bleeding), and then that schmuck floated in on Air France to pick up the pieces.
What if Khomeini’s plane had developed engine trouble and crashed into a Yugoslavian Pig Farm collective’s waste pond?
How would history have been different?
But, alas, we had Jimmeh Cartuh as Preznit then, and he made a fetish out of Yooman Rites and playing “hands off” about foreign nations’ domestic politics.
We have to strive real hard to not ensnare ourselves in a self-fulfilling prophecy of Epic Fail here.
Yes, the Muslim world doesn’t “do” revolutions very well, but we have to recognize our inherent pessimism about their politics for what it os and try to see what is going on in Cairo for what it is…people are pissed at Mubarak, and the M-B’s have been but one of the voices calling for him to go, (but not the ONLY voice).
If there wasn’t widespread anger, the M-B’s agitating could not have generated 5 days and nights of demonstrations and riots, could it have?
Egypt has a huge “peasant” population, some would even aspire to be peasants – those living in and from garbage dumps for example.
Once roused, they will not quiet down easily. Democracy in such a society is a near impossibility, it’s generations in the future.
The likely scenario a year from now is Islamic_Paradise-on-the-Nile.
well then you know you cannot get them to form a line …why do you think they will get democracy.
anyway looks like you have been to a few spots I haven’t gotten to yet.
looks like I will have to bet something stronger then a case of beer.
…I stand by my prediction that the muslim brotherhood with el-baradei as their front man to rule egypt.
regards and stay dry.
I have long since espoused the same vision you see. When the Green movement happened, I had no doubt it was because of the “democracy foothold” the region had. I was remiss that the current administration was as cuckolded as I feared they would be.
Well, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has already had pressure and influence on the government. Is there any non-islamist group who’s talking and is strong against the strong (60 percent support among the citizens) MB?
You have to show us a reasonable scenario where the MB without any fight steps back from current positions before we’ll believe you.
I guess (I’m sorry I haven’t read this article yet…) that we will at least have a stronger MB influence than before. How far is it possible to prevent this? Are there brave non-islamist groups, acedemics or others, to fight against more islamist power? If there are they will be targeted if a more islamist controlled state is the outcome.
We will not get a new Afghanistan, but a less good Egypt. Large parts of the population will accept it — but large parts of Somalia’s population accepts a very inhuman sharia law…
What will this mean for Europe. I think Europe has to unite against islamism, and also to support Israel. If Euro fails maybe the ambitions in the EU integration will not be prioritized. Then EU can allow countries to have the immigration they want (lower figures) and unite in a front against sharia law islamism. Unfortunately about every third young Muslim in Europe is pro extreme sharia (2/3 in Muslim countries?), but we shouldn’t increase risks and stop immigration of these values…
We should defend European values. Demography will ensure a clash, I’m afraid, but we have to defend our values in all possible ways.
Time is telling: Bush’s foreign policies were RIGHT! We have a “democratic” Iraq when it could have been another Iran.
“There is a fourth possibility. The mass uprisings lead to a democratic government and an open media,…”
Democracy reflects the will of the majority. As the elections in Gaza have shown, the majority want Islamic rule. A majority wanted the Weimar Republic replaced with a strongman, so that’s what democracy got Germany back then. The majority in the Muslim world are Islamic believers, so democracy cannot end in anything other than shariah rule.
“…and the Islamists, (including the schmucks who blame Israel and the USA for all the troubles in the world), are shown for the professional “grievance lobby” that they are.”
That’s the trouble with the term “Islamist.” Its connection with reality is not entirely fictional, because it does denote the politically active agents of establishing shariah rule, as opposed to those who merely offer aid and comfort; however, this term is often used to prop up the total fiction of a “moderate” Islam of flowers and unicorns that can be trusted to stand against a “radical” Islam of jihad and militancy, which is *of course* held only by a tiny minority.
A little reality: The Muslim world, not having undergone anything like the European Enlightenment, is Islamic, Koranic, Jihadist and shariah-supporting in the mainstream, in the majority, by the man in the street. It’s grassroots, no matter how unsettling the thought of nearly 1.6 billion supporters of shariah law is to you.
There’s nothing revolutionary about these protests, not in Iran, not in Tunisia, not in Egypt, not anywhere in the Muslim world. The people may be protesting unemployment, corruption, tyranny or something along those lines, but they are not protesting Islam, jihad and shariah law. Revolution would be when a man in Tehran or Cairo can tell his friends he doesn’t believe in the religion anymore and isn’t found the next day riddle with bullet holes. Until then, it’s SSDD all over again.
ziontruth, you have articulated the reality of this issue as well as anyone I have heard or read.
Muslims are fundamentally different from Jews, Christians and anyone else who places any value on civilization, moreover, that fact is almost immediately obvious to anyone who makes even a minimal attempt to look at Islam honestly.
Advocating democracy for a population indoctrinated in the insanity of Islam is itself insane; you know, the adage about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
What will ultimately happen in Egypt is difficult to predict at this time.
But what will NOT happen is much easier to predict. A liberal democracy which respects the rights of its citizens including minorities will NOT emerge from from the current chaos.
“The mass uprisings are taking place in the most westernized of Muslim nations, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan, (and now Albania), PRECISELY BECAUSE being the most open societies….”
The key word here being most (“84 percent [of Egyptian muslims] favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion”).
I’m not sure that I’d take a Western poll of 3 or 4 years ago, conducted in a dictatorship, as Gospel.
I seem to recall that all the polls pointed to a Glorious Electoral Victory by the Sandinistas over Violetta Chamorro in Nicaragua back in 1990-1 or so, and yet when the ballots were all counted, Daniel Ortega had to sit there and take pointers from Jimmeh Cartuh on what to do when you are voted out of office. (You may recall that Nicaragua became a “non-nation”…an “un-place” in the US Moonbat Media for about 10 or 15 years afterwards behind that epic broadcast self-delusion.
So while the Egyptians and Tunisians may have given the Gringo pollster the boilerplate “Come to Muhammad” response, I notice that they would all slit their mothers’ throats to go be waiters in Paris or construction workers in Germany rather than occupy a cave in the mountains outside of Medina and meditate upon the Surahs and Hadiths of the Prophet.
Heck, the Saudis import Indians and Filipinos to do their scut-work when there are millions of “brother Muslim” Egyptians in need of jobs.
What does THAT tell you?
To me that indicates that how they SAY they’d like to live is not quite the same as how they CHOOSE to live.
When push comes to shove, they usually choose the West.
Now if they could only get with the program when they’re HERE, we would have a lot less trouble in the world.
This opportunistic strike at these vulnerable Islamic societies is being inflamed at this time, because the United States is occupied by the most incompetent, impotent regime, to ever command it’s government.
The United States is bleeding incompetence and impotence because the Obama regime has been parading around the planet proudly displaying it’s foolish, immature vision of the entire world.
Any dictator will take this opportunity to strike at this time, since the American government is so completely devoid of any leadership.
What we witness in Egypt is soon to be seen in the streets of good ole U.S.A.
Remember the riots of the 1967 era? It will get a lot worse. Thanks to Obama and his suckling media.
..those rioters from 1967 are now in obama’s czar roles
….I wonder if I am on any enemy list ?
“I wonder if I am on any enemy list?”
Of course you are. We all are who write into well-known conservative blogs. We are low on the list and it will probably never affect us, but “He” has an entire department set up whose purpose 24/7 is to monitor conservative news and opinion everywhere–radio, TV, electronic.
Whenever I write here, I am a part of the revolution to take back what was a great country that needs no fundamental changing by anyone, much less an outsider. All of us who blog here regularly are steely-eyed patriots.
Can you recall any President ever making references during speeches to any TV news channel, much less the same one (FOX) repeatedly? Or any repeated reference to newscasters and opinion makers such as Limbaugh, Hannity, and O’Reilly? (Or tried to sneak in control of the Internet for that matter). Hasn’t ever happened. He’s flirting with ways to stop freedom of the press and freedom of speech.
now I am wishing I didn’t use my real name or true IP address. damn !!
Happen here? Maybe it should, but can it in a nation so comfortable with injustice?
Oh, please. You sound like another America hater who happens to occupy the White House. America is not and has never been perfect, but is the greatest nation ever to exist. Guilt ridden liberals have inflicted upon America thousands of paper cuts which constantly threaten to weaken her. I wonder if, since the 1930′s, they’ve stopped to think about why their ideas haven’t taken hold if they’re so superior? I think the reason is that there have always been a majority in this country who do no barking, but defend her where it counts – with their votes, hard work, and defense of their values.
You hit the nail on the head!
Obama did nothing to support the green revolution in Iran, which could have made ‘The’ difference. Again, we have a guy who votes ‘present’.
Behind the scenes games played by Obama are obvious, which isthe support of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Trying not to sound devious, could it be that the current admin thinks it’s payback time for Israel, not being able to browbeat Bibi, and rather go this route to damage Israel?
Obama and his socialist minions are, at this very moment, planning on how to take advantage of this latest crisis. Obama obviously supports Muslim revolution and despises American democracy, but doesn’t know how to turn this into a Socialist-Democrat victory.
God help us all if you are right. As it stands, it looks like the Army, if not actually siding with the protesters, is at least leaning their way. The Muslim Brotherhood is backing the protesters but have said they will stay out of the politics side of it. I don’t believe them but at least that is what they are saying. They say they will abide by the people’s decision as to what type of government they will choose. That is something to face in the near future. I will be very pleasantly surprised if they do wind up with an honest, fair, democratic form of government.
I doubt very seriously the people have given any thought as to what happens after the regime is overthrown. I guess it all depends on who gets there first with the biggest promises. Lets all hope it’s someone that will keep those promises.
Frankly, I think whatever happens, the outcome will be bad for the US and for Israel.
Do you have a link to the original Pew Poll? You link to MJT, who links to another article of yours — neither links to the original source. Since it forms the core of both pieces, I’d like to have a look at it.
In Egypt and Yemen they are fighting for control… If the “protesters” win, Islamic fundamentalists will then control both sides of the Suez Canal… they will shut it down… and you will have $10-$15 a gallon oil… (the US Economy and Global Economy will collapse… etc.) and we will go to War…
Hey Savage
First you pop off with the most cliche, orthodox BS about Bush is a fool because he helped the Shiites get Iraq blah blah blah (stop reading the NYT)- basically the line that all LEFTISTS have found it convenienet (so they do not have to think) and then this. I am not a Bush fan – I do not like ANY of them – but that is just too easy and cycnical (yes I know you will say you are a “realist” – whatever). I think the reality is more complex and the combination of finding the WMD and creating a space so that the Arabs could try someting new – some type of Islam based representative government just went together. I would not hold my breath that it works but trying this is more in line with what Americans are about than supproting a dictatorship (the only types of govt Arabs have are these – either religiuos one or secular). Lets see
OK now pls tell us just why the Suez Canal being shut down will raise the price of gassoline.
I find your point about the Muslim Brotherhood being the most organized NGO to be the Rosetta stone to understanding the tea leaves here. I fear I must predict you are accurate.
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”
Mr. Rubin
I think there is one out come here.
muslim brotherhood. a case of beer says that is the result.
.. the MB know that obama will be the first to recognize the new government.
islam and democracy don’t work. never has never will. when the stupid westerners and Europeans learn this then there may be hope for civilization.
I vote for No. 2 and, when Egypt’s new Muslim Brotherhood regime feels secure enough, it will openly develop nuclear weapons, followed by rampant nuclear proliferation. This assumes such proliferation hasn’t already started by then.
I am no fan of the current regime and applaud a country’s self-determination but I fear
Après Mubarak,le déluge.
I have read this story before. The ending sucks.
Look. Either we believe in representative gov’t or we don’t. If we believe that American exceptionalism is because of our libertarian gov’t and our individual rights than we can’t go against this movement in Egypt.
If it is ugly as first, it won’t stay that way.
I’m tired of people preaching liberty but promoting that the US back dictators. ‘
It is wrong. I don’t care how you chalk it up. I don’t care who you think will be hurt. I love Israel too. But the principle is the right to choose your government.
Let’s help these folks get an election and then deal with teaching them about liberty.
“I know of no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them but to inform their discretion.” ~ T. Jefferson
I agree that they have the right to choose their government. We just have to face the fact that the government they choose will be more repressive than the one in power now.
anonymous
American individual rights are constrained by the rule of law which is equal for everybody.
Even if I do believed, as you profess to do, that American exceptionalism is because of American libertarian government, Americans do not have to support every populist movement on Earth. They may agree that the people have right to chose illiberal and undemocratic government – it is these people choice – but Americans do not have to support it and neither should they do nothing about that choice.
I think that you are combining together two separate things – allowing people choice, and supporting that choice. One does not equal the other.
Geez Anon,
I appreciate your sentiments and understand where you are coming from, still this isn’t George Washington or Simon Bolivar in revolt, this is in the end the Muslim bortherhood who would more closely resemble the North Korean Experiment than the American or French revolutions. With the added fact that these people want to kill you.
Yeah free elections in muslim countries are great like in Iran,Syria,Pakistan, Saudi Arabia. Democracry and freedom in those countries has worked out real well. Of course I could be wrong.
Free elections,heh, heh, heh, yeah that and a high five will get your head removed in the new and improved Egypt.
I’m sorry but the track record for Muslims of any stripe doing the right and rational thing for themselves is pretty poor. We have been to Egypt and have seen first hand the abject grinding poverty, the street urchins begging for a crust of bread or a few coins, it is such a pitiful sight,,, and one begins to wonder what has happened to the many millions of foreign aid we have squandered in and on that land… Oh, that’s right, Mubarak spent it on some more Russian arms and tanks. Last I looked, no matter how long you boil an AK47, it still makes very thin soup.
God help us all.
some great points there ..but the weapons are from the USA …It was Nassar and Sadat who bought the russian stuff, regardless it will end up an islamic sh!thole run by the muslim brotherhood. …so obama will be able to take his next vacation there.
Modern weapons systems are only as good as the people who operate them. Recent history bears that out, especially in the ME.
true …but that wasn’t what I was getting at. just pointing out that it wasn’t the russians who were providing the weapons.
…….and in the 73 war it was almost curtains for Israel. each fighter sortie was up against thousands of missles. the Israelis lost a lot of hardware and people.
Don’t forget, Egypt runs the Suez Canal. How much oil and food go through there, not to mention supplies for out troops in Iraq and Afghanistan? If the resulting government leans more Islamist, expect some periodic blackmail.
And if these guys get together with Iran and also close the Straits of Hormuz at the same time……
I have seen this coming for a long time… All of these autocrats (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, UAE, Yemen etc.) will be toppled one after another like dominoes by the poor Arab masses in their countries…
The aging Sunni despots are heading for the grave and the ash heap of history… When autocrats fall, it is not always democracy that rises. And in the Middle East, democracy is not necessarily America’s ally. Democracy in the Middle East means, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood etc. will come to power, they will turn all of their countries into Islamic Republic’s with Sharia, and promote endless war against Israel… If that’s what you want, then by all means, keep on pushing for Democracy in the Middle East…
The Muslim Brotherhood has been waiting for this for decades… This is their big opportunity… They will most certainly ‘strike while the iron is hot’. If they ‘go for it’, if they fail, Mubarak will wipe them out. But if they ‘sit it out’, they will most probably be destroyed anyway. The Muslim Brotherhood has DEEPLY PENETRATED the army, and ultimately it is the army that will decide who wins. It is a certainty that the Muslim Brotherhood will win. It’s only a matter of time…
If/When the “protesters” overthrow the dictators, and take over Egypt and Yemen (and the rest of the Middle East)… Islamic Fundamentalists will then control both sides of the Suez Canal… they will shut it down… and you will have $10-$15 a gallon oil… (the US Economy and Global Economy will collapse… etc.) and we will go to War…
It does add up. Plan for the worst and pray for the best.
One of the great mistakes too many in the US and the West make is that they too often assume that Middle Easterners think the same way Westerners, especially Americans, do. Their framework is profoundly different from ours: they have grown up in a completely different environment, with different upbringing, different culture, different religion, different peer and societal pressures, different goals and motivations and so on. To assume that they would have these same desires and come to the same conclusions as we would and want the same government as us is dangerous and foolish. I mean no insult when I say this, though it will be insulting anyway, but until we understand that the Arab world (and Egypt is part of it have no doubt) does NOT have the same level of education, freedom of thought, and belief in liberal/secular government and society we will continue to blunder in our dealings with the Arab (and Islamic) world. Every time we make that assumption, it has come back to bite us in the rear. While the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan are necessary and moral, many of the difficulties we have experienced there are because of our incorrect and Western-centric assumptions. To judge the happenings from a Western perspective and set of assumptions is guaranteed to cause catastrophic misunderstandings and misinterpretations.
I desperately hope that the Egyptians choose the right path, not just for them, but for the world in general. Another Islamist powerhouse in the region would not only be a tragedy, but a catastrophe. However, unless we understand the people in and of themselves, instead of projecting our own framework onto them, we are going to blunder yet again and turn the potential for positive change into utter disaster.
Excellent observation. I refer you to the following in support of your argument:
Culture and Conflict in the Middle East
By Philip Carl Salzman
Reviewed here by Stanley Kurtz: Weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/947kigpp.asp
Allow me to recommend some books that should explain the Arab mentality to us westerners;
The Haj by Leon Uris, a fiction that was first to state plainly that the middle eastern moral culture is an outright disaster.
Now They Call Me Infidel by Nora Drawish. An Egyptian woman’s observations and insights about Arabic culture.
The Truth about Syria by Barry Rubin. How to set up the prefect dictatorship for an amoral society.
Of course Eric Hoffer’s works are also relevant to the contemporary middle east.
I agree. Obama, though, truly believes he is the erudite intellectual and will back the overthrow of Mubarak. That will, of course, create a political vacuum and the Muslim Brotherhood (backed by Iran) will step in (IF the army allows it). After that, the purges/executions start and the new Egyptian government will blame Israel and the USA for all the trouble.
Obama and Clinton are died-in-the-wool leftists and only see utopian sugarplums dancing in their heads. They see a populist uprising and (because they are not realists) think everything will be peaceful when the people take over.
To think similarly requires, first of all, similar ability to think. That seems to be one of the problems. U.S. average IQ = 98. Egypt average IQ = 83. That’s not a trivial difference.
The one outcome that will not happen in Egypt is democracy. I see a two-step senario: first, so-called secular forces, with the help of the feckless Obama administration, destroy the regime, replacing it with Mohammed El-Baradei or some such. I suspect that he will become the Shapour Bactiar of Egypt. The army is already indicating that it “stands with the people,” giving them rides on their tanks and refusing to enforce the curfew. Will they refuse to fire on demonstrators? If so, the regime better head for the airport. This is the final outcome of Obama’s advice for the government not to be respect the “people’s right to demonstrate,” in which case the demonstrators have license. Such an outcome will confirm “change” and be good for Obama’s re-elect numbers. Second, the Islamists will overthrow the new government, which — having no real allies left, except rhetorial support from Obama, is “weak” and not refecting the Islamic “popular mood.” It makes sense for the Muslim Brotherhood not to become visible now since the regime may defend itself, and any new government — reference Lenin and the Russian revolution and the Iranian revolution, where we were assured that “the people” of sophisticated Tehran just wanted “democracy” and not theocracy — will lack dependable support from the police and army of the old regime. On this basis, a Muslim Brotherhood government will come to the Arab world’s most populous nation. The “peace” treaty with Israel will be renounced in short order, and Egyptian troops will move into Gaza to support Hamas, carried in their Americam-supplied M-1 tanks. Will we even recognize what a disaster this is, or will Obama reassure us that what may “appear” to us to be radicalism is just the understandable reaction of an oppressed people to 30 years of dictatorship. Now when Hezbollah begin a war from Lebanon, Israel will have to wonder what Egypt — armed by America — is going to do.
Exacty, I think you’ve got it. The military in some fashion will initially hold the power but it is a matter of time before the MB takes the reins and the show begins.
There will be a little time while this unfolds. This at least provides some time for Israel to get ready and for Obama to pontificate about diversity, wind and solar power, high speed rail, our desire to remain on the sidelines and watch, our support for patriots just like the ones who won our independence in the form of the MB, and some occasionally scolding.
Hey, Obama and Hillary may get us into a real war afterall. I wasn’t sure they could do it, but it’s looking more feasible everyday. I’d be thinking break out the nukes before Iran does. There will be choices to make like Tehran turned to dust or New York. At this point I’m not sure which one Obama would chose.
Well, but there is also the more germane fall of Ferdinand Marcos, which ended in a better democracy than Marcos’ system. But that would spoil your narrative.
But you see, the Phillipines was, and is, not the middle east. The cultures and values are very, very different. So much for your narrative.
Not a good example, I’m afraid; the Philippines are predominantly Catholic (about 90% Christians), with only a small and isolated islamist minority (about 5%), which is always seeking trouble, but has been kept well in check by the majority.
The problem with Egypt is that it consists of about 90% islam and about 5-10% Christians. And that’s a key difference.
The Philippines are not predominantly Muslim, rather Catholic. They had long ties first to Spain, and then to the United States. They are quite familiar with democracy. Such is not the case in the Muslim world.
Last time I looked the Philippines was staunchly CATHOLIC and not Mohammedan which makes all the difference.
The environmental extremists will maintain the victory in the USA and we will not be allowed to develop the Bakken or oil shale deposits that we are literally floating on. The islamists win in the middle east and shut off the oil to the west due to sheer spite and religious insanity. Gas hits $10 gallon, general war spreads, China decides to make her move, Obama does nothing or assists our enemies and is deposed by the joint chiefs of staff, North Korea gives Iran a few nukes and they hit Israel, Israel retaliates and destroys utterly Iran and the holy sites of islam in saudi arabia, China moves into the middle east, we resist their movement into a non-traditional sphere of influence, Americans decide they want their traditional way of life back, and develop our own resources, we completely defeat china in the middle east, china losses their trade advantage and markets in America and slides back into civil war. The Generals restore the Republic, The middle east reverts to what it has always been, a backward, disease ridden shithole, and our economy booms like its 1960.
Brilliant !
Fortress America stands alone, isolated from the world – NOT.
That would have worked in the 19th century, and maybe in the 20th,
but this is 2011 and counting; If we turn our backs on the world,
we will get a knife in the kidneys, sooner rather than later.
SSG Whitaker,
Consider the degree to which Egypt requires the hard currency from foreign aid to pay for its food imports. The Saudi royal family will have an interesting decision to make. Their instinct is to pay off nasty foreigners who threaten them, but the Muslim Brotherhood, once in secure in control of Egypt, would be very disinclined to stay bribed.
I don’t disagree with you about the hard currency, but an Islamist government is probably not going to care so much about that, reality be damned. After all, I don’t think Khomenei was especially concerned about that, rather he was more concerned about shoring up his power base, maintaining the Islamic Revolution (which is what the Iranian Revolution was) and fighting with Iraq. In addition, I think the Saudis will do what they have always done, which is pay off what appear to be dangerous folks, especially in light of the currently feckless US Administration. Agreed that an Islamist government, in this case the Muslim Brotherhood, would indeed be disinclined to stay bribed, but they probably would in the short-term, and the Saudis aren’t going to look past their own immediate safety. Don’t kid yourself, the Saudi monarchy will protect itself first, last, and always, without regard to what its people want. Besides, I think the Saudi “people,” a very non-homogenous group of tribes, would be very sympathetic to an Islamist government in Egypt. On further reflection, I would imagine the Saudi monarchy is quite alarmed right now, as violent Islamist sentiment in their own country would probably bring down their house of cards very quickly.
Egyptian Muslims said the following: 82 percent want adulterers punished with stoning;
Meh. I am sure that 82% of American Women believe that it is perfectly acceptable for a woman who cheats on her husband should still be entitled to the house and lifetime alimony payments from the betrayed spouse. In other words, female adultery should be rewarded. I am equally sure that these same women would be OK with stoning an adulterous husband.
I have long since stopped the deluded belief that America is a better society than Egypt. America’s official ideology is female supremacism, which is no better than whatever takes over Egypt.
I don’t think the number is that high, and there are plenty of women who don’t believe in the death penalty at all, but the point is well taken. If it were only 50%, or even 25%, it illustrates something seriously wrong with society that people believe adultery should be rewarded, or even just condoned. Truth is, I can’t say anything against having the death penalty for adultery, except that enforcement tends to be arbitrary in the countries that have it. If the accused is given a fair trial with legitimate rules of evidence and the ability to cross examine witnesses for the prosecution and subpoena witnesses for the defense, and the interloper is subject to the same punishment, I cannot even accuse such a system of being cruel.
Myth Buster
You “can not say nothing against having the death penalty for adultery,”?
How wonderful for you!!.
Are you also for death penalty for men adulterers?
You know, a woman say that the guy is adulterer and he goes straight for execution.
In the West there is a rule of law and an equal law for everybody, man or woman.
What represents the “law” in the West these days is neither equal or just. Please read the original comment.
Pawn
Author of original comment, a guy named “Tommy” stated that it is his belief that the Western law is unequal. Someone can believe, be sure, that every Muslim is a terrorist. Both statements are beliefs, both are subjective and both have not so much to do with reality but with the belief of the person who writes. IMHO, You should distinguish objective beliefs (supported by data)from subjective beliefs (someone thinks something )instead of giving me a “good” advice.
And btw, that lack of separation between objective and subjective beliefs is very common in the Middle East. In truth, it is somewhat common in the West but not as much as over there, in the ME.
I say let them do what they want. Expose to the world what true Muslims are all about.
Gee, we send Egypt a couple billion a year of taxpayer money’s o they can enrich our armaments manufacturers and Israeli traders. Now what will we do to keep these folks in the money?
The experience of North Korea teaches us that regimes that cannot afford bread can ALWAYS afford bombs. Crumbling, collapsing, starving, impoverished Egypt is (under an Islamist govt) 100% sure to try and build nuclear weapons. God grant that by then the US will have a government with some idea of what to do.
Years ago, when India was first developing nuclear weapons, somebody asked a top official why, when they had so many poor people. He said something like ‘We’ll always have the poor. We won’t always have the money to build a nuclear weapon.’ Besides, hatred of others helps fuel countries like North Korea, and building nuclear weapons is then justified.
“in part demoralized by a lack of Western — especially U.S. — support.”
Let’s see. Pick 2 (thats’s a lottery game here in Michigan). OK, So I would like to put $10 on #2 and $7 on #1 and not betting on #3.
The Obama administration (and Hillary and the elite progessives) will do NOTHING,nothing other than scold. And I think we know how scolding goes. Well it works for a while, but usually not for long. When there are no consequences the scoldee continues doing what they have been doing, none the worse for wear. And from there it usually goes down hill.
As noted on many posts, Obama, Hillary and the Progessive feel good unit and MSM, let’s talk about it, RESET, approach to diplomacy more times than not backs the world into a war. I wont’ say congratulations yet as they haven’t done it, but I am sure they can pull it off.
If I had any say or sway in Israel I would strike now, hard and fast while the rest of the world theorizes, ponders its own future and picks its nose. While President Sputnik is contemplating where to place his last pick and his inner circle is scurrying about getting the teleprompter loaded. Strike. Strike now. Israel, don’t waste a good crises. The West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, hit them now, hard, fast and decisively.
While you’re at it send a few missiles Turkey and Iran’s way to destabilize the euro ninny’s eastern flank and they will be to busy pissing themselves to act or think coherently, the day is yours.
And what happens when Turkey invokes the NATO mutual defense pact? Does Obama buck up and kick Turkey out of NATO? Would the Obama administration go to war with Israel? Or would Obama blink and show the rest of our allies that we have no intention of keeping our treaty obligations, at which point Germany and Poland will begin nuclear weapons programs to serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression.
Turkey, Iran, key word, destabilize. War with Israel, not likely, even Sputnik knows which side his Middle East bread is buttered on. Blink, I don’t know, Viet Nam, North Africa, maybe Afghanistan, hard to say but I would have a back door with the current commander in chief.
Germany and Poland will begin nuclear weapons programs to serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression. Maybe that’s not a bad idea when you look at the euro ninny mess of today, let them look after themselves and maybe they would quit pissing on us for all the worlds wrongs. Next time let Germany win.
Glass
Germany is, at the moment, supporting Russia. Or at least they buy as much gas as possible from that country.
Neither Germany nor Poland want nuclear weapons.
If Germany won II WW, as you would like it, there would be no Poland and no Russia. The US will also (probably) disappear, as Japan would be supported by victorious Germany. I also do not think that, after some years, there would be any Muslim country left – they would be next in the concentration camps.
Please return to reality!!
ella — If Germany won II WW, as you would like it. What an absolutely stupid assumption as is your whole rambling comment, today lady, today. Do you have a reading comprehension problem, next time-last time? Come on, I hate going off on someone but your assumption of what I supposedly thought or think of events that happened 60 years ago is a bit much. Go ahead and tell me you think I am full of crap with a scenario of your own but don’t attribute words or thoughts to me of which totally disagree.
Before you can have the freedom to choose your own government, you must first have freedom.
And, to continue to have the freedom to choose your own government, after that government is chosen, civil society must continue to be free.
As such, a people are NOT free to elect a government that is violative of freedom, they are NOT free to choose a government, for example, that is Islamist or otherwise oppressive, like Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood.
The right of self-government is not absolute and supreme — FREEDOM is. With authentic freedom, one will have a right of self-government. But with an absolute government, freedom disappears.
Now, let’s see: Barry Hussein became president about two years ago, and his first major talk abroad was in Egypt addressing the muslims of the World. I’ll spare you all his repeated references to muslims and islam over the past two years; but here’s my question: does anyone really think that his mere presence in the WH isn’t an invitation for islamists to become more aggressive?
Exit question: who here in the US doubted this outcome (worldwide encouragement of and turmoil by islamists, that is) while voting on Nov. 4th, 2008?
As I view the mobs on television, I find it interesting that these people want to invite more Islamist dirtbags in to ruin their lives. Why not democracy? It is the only thing they haven.t tried.
To illustrate this for a generation accustomed to getting its exposition with popcorn, this is a “Dark Knight” vs. “Superman” decision. The west must decide whether to take unpalatable preemptive action to undercut the gathering of Islamist power, or allow the Middle-East to mushroom into an undeniable catastrophe before saving the day. Do we do what needs to be done and be hated for it, or do we wait until hundreds of thousands die to jump in and prove that we are the good guy? I realize the reality of the situation is vastly more complicated than this comic metaphor, but sadly, I have little faith that the Obama administration is equipped to deal with it even in these simplified terms.
Unfortunately, I anticipate that Washington will find a third road that involves more artifice than heroism. Granted, time will only tell: perhaps waiting this situation out will result in a positive outcome, and we can strike a tentative understanding of peace with the emergent Islamist regime. That would certainly benefit the president, who would yet again look like a brilliant leader for doing nothing. But the Muslim Brotherhood is not the Nobel committee, and I fear that Mr. Obama’s ersatz leadership will in this case be rewarded with blood.
This is shaping up to be a very bad time to lack a decisive leader.
None of this would be happening if the Jews weren’t building homes in Jerusalem. Ask Obama – this is the obstacle to peace and love in the Middle-East and the cause of all the rioting in Egypt.
If the extremists come to power (and Mubarak is no moderate, just not as bad as the Muslim Brotherhood. It’s relative), well they have hi-tech US weaponry at their disposal, F-16s, Apache helicopters included. On top of that thanks to the initiative of Jew-hater Jimmah Carter, we ceded the buffer zone of the Sinai back to Egypt, and we got what is increasingly being revealed as a worthless piece of paper, the 1979 ‘peace treaty’ in return. With allies like the US who needs enemies.
“With allies like the US who needs enemies.”
I suppose the name Pollard means something to you then? Same back at ya.
I’m sure the US taxpayer would love to have all those arms returned since they are clearly unwanted.
You sir, are an idiot. The tools of your salvation, your F-16s and Apaches, came from the sweat of the US workers and largely paid for with US tax dollars.
If collectivly as a nation you are so paranoid that you cannot tell friend from foe then you deserve to fail as a nation.
“The tools of your salvation, your F-16s and Apaches, came from the sweat of the US workers and largely paid for with US tax dollars.”
Tools of salvation?! This is as close to blasphemy as I have ever seen.
This is why I’m sure that, in Israel’s dire straits, no nation will be there to aid her. If people believe Israel’s survival is dependent on humans and the instruments they manufacture, this belief will be put to an end in the coming showdown.
(To anticipate predictable replies: Don’t even *think* about giving an atheological argument here. God is real, and He is above all criticism!)
Larry, don’t forget your Palestinian buddies getting clear sailing across the border. Iran’s Mullahs are rubbing their hands in glee. A piece of Egyptian pie sounds delicious. They could be closing the circle around Israel and the ME. Iran could easily send in their Hamas/Hizballah agents nearby to gain a foothold in the Sinai and beyond.
No, Larry – the only obstacle to ‘peace’ in the ME is… people like you. As the sons of Mohammad see it, there will be ‘peace’ in the ME only when every Jew is dead. If you are an Israeli, then you’re blind and clueless as to the nature of Islam and your own history.
Larry,
Obama represents, at most, half of the American people, not all of them. He represents the unknown percentage of Americans who are really Americans In Residence Only–people who reside on the territory of the United States of America but give no allegiance to its values.
“we ceded the buffer zone of the Sinai back to Egypt, and we got what is increasingly being revealed as a worthless piece of paper, the 1979 ‘peace treaty’ in return.”
It’s never too late to learn from one’s mistakes. Next time around, we can insist on a new model of peace treaty with our enemies: If they give us land, we will give them peace. But in order to bring this change into effect, we have to have leaders who put Jewish values first and international pressure and “law” last (if at all). Sure, American pressure contributed to Israel’s degraded state, but even the U.S.A. couldn’t bring us to it if our leaders hadn’t cravenly enabled them.
Aid to Israel (which is, contrary to perception, only 1.1% of Israel’s GDP) will be cut off (whether we like it or not: America isn’t in America’s hands any longer, it’s in China’s), and then we’ll be able to do as we wish, without the extortionary lever held over us any longer. With HaShem’s help we will overcome both enemies and misguided friends. Above all, the Jewish State must follow what Jewish Law says regarding covenants with other nations: A total absence of any such. We cannot trust our security to others, even if well-intentioned.
I think Larry’s post was SNARK-CASM and you all answered as if he meant it literally
Yes larry when (not if) Egypot rescinds it’s (sorta) “peace” with isarel- all bets off
means SINAI given for the no ‘peace” should revert to Israeli control
Larry, don’t forget that over half of America is for Israel. The half which wants to bid Israel adieu are in control in Washington, and they were swept into power by your religious compatriots who own the media in America.
repeat the MYTH
while I am not happy that 78% JEWS voted for for Obama
this canard must die
even if 100% of JEWS in USA voted for Obama it would mean less than 10% of voters (only about 1/3 of USA even votes)
so JEWS are not solely repsonsible for OBAMA getting elected
do you also save some blame for other groups??
Psalm 83 prophesies a major regional war in the coming years, and Egypt isn’t on the list of Israel’s enemies in that war. That means that whatever the result of this conflict is, it will result in a government that is either not hostile to Israel, or else so crippled that their hostility doesn’t matter. Of course, it’s also possible that Israel will be forced to invade to neutralize the Muslim Brotherhood before this is over.
Revolutions do have a nasty habit of feeding on their own, a la France 1789. This could easily happen in Egypt. Mr. Whitaker’s observations are generally valid. Islam is not a “pro-democracy” movement. It supports a theocracy, with the end game a caliphate ruling the world. So, to achieve a democracy in the Muslim world, the new government must first and foremost be secular, i.e., Ataturk’s Turkey from 1923 to 2008. That means the Muslim Brotherhood most definitely will not be on board with the idea. The only way a democracy will come to pass in Egypt will be for the military to send Mubarak off to a cushy retirement in France, establish a firm dictatorship for, say, five years, and then think about moving to real elections for a parliament. The very best the Egyptians can hope for is a situation similar to Russia; the very worst will be a Muslim Brotherhood government. By the way, there are some reports circulating that the security forces have left the Rafah border crossing with Israel and that Hamas fighters are entering Egypt in large numbers. If true that is very bad news.
You mention Turkey, Ataturk, and secularism. That’s a joke. There isn’t any bit of difference between them and islam.
The real power in Turkey has always been the military; and this institution has been and is an instrument of Turkish expansionism. They wish to re-create the Ottoman Empire, but instead call it the “Turkish Empire.”
Israel conquered Sinai twice, and gave it back twice. The first time, they returned it because the West gave its word–which turned out to be worthless in 67. The second time, they gave it back because Egypt gave its word. If Egypt falls to the Hamas/al Qaeda crowd, and Israel has to conquer Sinai for a 3rd time, why should they not keep it this time? What will Egypt have to offer? Its ‘word’?
“If Egypt falls to the Hamas/al Qaeda crowd, and Israel has to conquer Sinai for a 3rd time, why should they not keep it this time?”
Because they still don’t have a prayer of holding it, and still less so when Uncle Sugar is running out of money.
Wanna bet? Best thing Israel could possible do, would be to reject American financial aid.
Islamic countries become democracies after (and only after) they become true theocracies. Their love affair with Islamism must be satisfied and they have to reap its bitter fruits before they will turn away. This would tend to predict that Egypt can democratize, but the journey will not be short or painless (for them, for others, for us).
Please give examples Miraim.
That’s probably true. Being a utopian ideology, islam will not lose it’s allure until tried to the fullest. 50 years of sharia will cure the survivors. Witness eastern european jewry’s love of communism in the 30s and now try and find a single immigrant jew from Soviet Union who is a leftist today. An interesting comparison with american jews still infected with “progressivism”. Iranians seems to be showing the same weariness with islam. So let the egyptians get that islamic rule they crave, it will only speed up their recovery.
1979 sucked the first time around. I don’t think we’re going to like this second incarnation any better.
Your point that, while the West delicately stayed out of the recent protests at the elections in Iran and now the would-be revolutionaries are being slaughtered in Ahmadinajad’s jails, but is pressing the Egyptian government to go easy on the revolutionaries in Cairo and Alex, says it all.
Perhaps the world powers-that-be are ushering in one more piece of the global system they desire, and it seems to have a distinctly Islamist flavour, among others.
Do we see a bad moon rising?
“The new regime turns against the West, tears up the peace treaty with Israel (in practice if not formally), and joins hands with Hamas. Iranian influence isn’t important with this regime, but that will be small comfort as it launches its own subversive efforts and even goes to war against Israel at some point in the future. This will be the biggest disaster for the region and the West since the Iranian revolution 30 years ago. And in some ways it will be worse.”
This AND the closing of the Suez Canal would be the worse possible outcome of this uprising. If the Islamists take over and the peace treaty with Israel is abandoned (which it most certainly will, especially if the new regime models itself after Hamas), there will be a new arab-Israeli war in a few years, if not sooner. Jordan will also probably be the next monarchy to fall too, allowing the Palestinians there to take over like Hamas did in Gaza. Israel will be surrounded once again and will face an invasion from all sides, only this time the Egyptians will be armed with modern American weapons thanks to all of the foreign aid the United States has been giving it over the years. And remember, this time around the Islamists will NOT give up like Sadat did. They will continue fighting until either Israel or Egypt itself is destroyed. That’s what religious fanatics do.
And even if Hussein is not president, we will be tempted to let Israel go it alone so as to preserve our “gains” in Iraq. Oh what webs we weave when first we get Islam all wrong.
Libertyship46:
New Islamicist regimes bordering Israel would be inherently, and intentionally, incapable of posing any non-nuclear military threat to Israel. It’s in the nutball regime manual. Evil overlords have a manual – see:
http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html
and nutball regimes have a manual. #1 on the nutball regime manual is to eliminate all military competence because it might overthrow their regime.
Egypt no longer has competent ground forces. I suspect it no longer has any competent miltary forces of any kind, due to thirty years of the usual corruption and political patronage. An Islamic regime would gut what little is left.
And develop nuclear weapons.
#35
Islamic countries become democracies after…..
Give me some examples?
“The elite loses its nerve”
We could use some that here. Like Egypt, the elite of our country is at war with its own people Unlike Egypt, our people won’t vote Hamas, but our elite clearly prefers Moslem thugs.
“A radical regime emerges”
I hope this will end our billion-dollar subsidy of this terrible state, a subsidy that should have ended decades ago. I hope none of that subsidy was wasted on an Islamic “education.”
So all the money we’ve been giving Eqypt over the years means what?
You better believe we got to have a say in the outcome. Clandestinely of course. Don’t want to let people know we’re pulling the strings. Don’t want myopic leftists harping. Look, it’s better we mainstain some control rather than a far more ominous group like the Muslim Brotherhood. Let’s get this striaght: America has been buying peace for decades. Either with military superiority or monetary aid. A Middle East controlled by various Islamofascist sects means our existence gets more dicier. Now we have a leftist shill for a President who keeps spewing the wrond messages. On the surface regime change in Eqypt for the people is desireable but after careful examination replacing Mubarak with an Osama Bin Laden wannabee is frightful not just to us but the entire region. We don’t know if Egyptians want to be free and Democratic or just want to remove Mubarak and let’s take it from there. The second option could be disasterous. The power vacuum will suck in all sorts of undesireables. And you know how violent these factions can get. And what about the Palestinians? Arm smuggling across the Egyptian border would go unfettered. Also, they might even make inroads into Egypt itself. And this is just the tip of the powderkeg.
This situation has kept me up all night in my war room. The pizza boxes are getting so deep the chairs get stuck and can’t roll around any more.
We (me and my Doberman) have concluded that Obama should take a leave of absence and take the position as Omnipotent Healer in Egypt. The United States would look so benevolent with this gesture, and with his Kenyan roots and lavish wife, they would fit the lifestyle perfectly. And he’s got the bowing part down pretty well.
Meanwhile, Jokin’ Joe Biden could keep us entertained in the USA.
Win-win. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Which ever side gains power will be seen as “The Will of allah and islam” and will be accepted by the masses.
If their god wills it it will be so you cannot get around medival thinking in this region even in the 21st century.
Will this finally, finally convince this country to drill here, drill now, and don’t stop drilling? Will we finally develop a nuclear based power grid?
No one can save the islamists from islam, the more they kill each other, frankly, the better, but we need to become energy independent yesterday, and I’m not talking about unworkable solar and wind. After than we need to re-establish the credibility of our nuclear deterent. Think about how different the world would be if Tora Bora had been fused into a pile of glass when we had the roaches trapped inside.
Democracy mideast style is horrific. It will mean, in Egypt, the death of possibly millions of Coptic Christians. It means that when the next war comes Israel will be attacked from all three sides on land, plus the Egyptian navy. It will mean beyond belief brutality toward women. What will our idiot liberal regime do? Obama, Hillary & Co. will hasten all of the above in the name of tolerance or equality or some such tripe.
All out war against Islam may be the only solution to the massive problems the West has with the Middle East. I suspect it is unavoidable…. and the sooner the better.
Hate to say it but I think you are right.
I hate to say it too Katrine. War is Hell and a lot of innocent people suffer. However, the West’s response to these barbarians, thus far, is clearly not working… but rather emboldening them to commit even greater atrocities. Time to put these bullies in their places.
Let’s wait until next Sept 11th and then let the missiles fly.
Why waste electrons discussing actions the US cannot or will not take ?
Ask yourself what the US can do, with what it has, to optimize the outcome.
Answer: Offer all those young, educated, unemployed Egyptian men a deal
on a phone with a Killer App: uninterruptible communication, both local
and to the outside world, then stand back and let them all work it out.
http://daihinia.com/
Noteworthy to take stock of what aspects of Western culture they will happily embrace.
I do not like to rain on your parade. But As one who was born and grew up in a Muslim country, I can tell tell you for sure that Egypt’s future is not any better than IRAN. Look at Turkey today, in so called democracy. The Turks have been trying for over 100 years to modernize. Starting with the Ottoman Sultans in late 19th century. Even with force modernization between 1920 and 1960′s. Turkey now is going backwards. Turkey not only the single Muslim country that recognized Israel, but the very early ones, even before Greece and may other advance countries. And look where is Turkey today? The entire Muslim world is in a state of chaos due power struggle between, fundamentalist and the modernist. Unfortunately for the time being the fundamentalist are winning. And the west including USA are among the useful idiots who are being fool by the Islamist.
Re: Turkey; please, see my response under comment # 33.
Mr. Rubin,
Sadly Egypt WILL have a more radical regime in place in the future. It’s both inevitable and been occurring for hundreds of years.
How many Christians, Jews and other non-Muslims/mixed-marriage Muslims have been bullied out of Egypt? Millions.
It’d be nice to hear Obama speak of his, ‘..adminsitration speakin gwith all neighboring allies and countries to ermedy the situation..’, but electing a man with NO foreign affairs experience and watching him abandon, badmouth those same allies at times, I don’t know..
To hear of some of Egypt’s priceless treasures get looted, damaged (Yes, nearly all archaeological digs have ‘missing’ items but at the very least the museum pieces are available to the public) to boot.. horrible.
Response to Kevin M: It is very tempting to compare Egypt to some benign example like the Phillipines. The problem is this. In a recent Pew poll, Egyptians were asked who they would favor in free elections, Islamists or secular “modernists.” The result was Islamists, 57 percent, secular “modernists” 24 percent. I think the likelihood of a Muslim Brotherhood many of whom are in the parliament and engage in the most disreputable Jew-baiting) government is more likely everyday and ever time Obama or Hillary speak. I can only hope that they are totally cynical and making anodyne public statements while pushing for a crack-down behind the scenes. Otherwise, their statements are inexcusably foolish and reach for temporary applause at the cost of a major national disaster.
This is the first real step towards Al Queda’s goal of reconstruction of the Caliphate. Laugh, if you will, but comes back in five years and tell me what you see. It may be a loosse confecderation at the beginning, but it is awful, perhaps fatal, news for Isreal, expecially if the United States takes a “hands off” or tolerant view of the situation. Isreal would be wisee to wean itself off United States aid before Obama pulls it to impose an Arab-blessed “peace plan.”
Imagin an Isreal without a friend in the White House (a situation that already exists, although Obama has been careful to hide it) surrounded by Lebanon and Syria, armed by Iran; an Egypt restored to the Arab rejectionist front, armed by the United States; and Jordan, with the monarchy overthrown and replalced by the dominant Paalestinian majority.
The Jews will be lucky to get a new home in the badlands of Nevada, on federal land, courtesy of the gracious Obama, as a “humanitarian” gesture.
With Turkey going Islamist in slow motion (would the Turkey of 1980 have launched the Gasa flotilla?); Tunisia rocked by riots (the Islamist leader in exile has just announced plans to return home); Egypt tottering; Algeria having riots; Jordan convulsed in a non-reported uprising (led by groups who serve as the core of the police and army, not the Palestinians); leaks of documents showing the PLO Palestinians insufficiently militant; predictions that Libya is next (although it is had to believe that Kaddaffi will go quietly); and Pakistan with nukes; we appear to be living in 2938, except with nuclear weapons. No double Obama will tell us that this is reason for more “dialogue” and understanding of why they hate us.
One thing: SECURE THE SUEZ CANAL!!! NOW!!!!!
Did you mean “Barry Soetoro, secure the Suez Canal for the islamists right now” ?
You don’t expect him really to do anything against islam, do you?
When was it that he said, “if things go ugly…”
A fourth scenario:
The Army, the Secret Police and the second-ranking apparatchiks (waiting in the wings to have a larger piece of the pie)hijack the grass-roots revolt for themselves by arresting one of their own, Mubarak, staging a kangaroo court and executing him, while declaring themselves as representatives of the “will of the people,” standing for “fundamental change” and “democracy.”
I saw this scenario unfold in the first televised revolution ever, and I’ve witnessed it ever since.
The outcome? The secret police and former apparatchiks metamorphosed into an oligarchy that still rules the country, democratically, at the ballot box.
An Islamicist Egytpian regime will develop nuclear weapons, along with lots of other shaky countries, and that will result in destruction of Israel within a generation or less (20 years).
This might have been averted had Israel set a good precedent with an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons development first, but now it is too late. It is highly likely that Eygpt will end up controlled by an Islamicist regime, and that absolutely, positively, will result in Egypt developing nuclear weapons. We’ll see rampant nuclear proliferation at that point.
Israel would not act to protect itself when it could, and IMO it is now too late. We can’t save them if they won’t save themselves. Sure it’s a tough world. They knew it, and did nothing anyway.
Everybody seem to have forgotten the popular revolution in Sudan 1985, when Nimeiry was overthrown. It was a peaceful revolution, as the army stepped in early and got rid of him.
Result? An Islamist was elected as president, and four years later a coup created the genocidal Islamist government we all know and “love”.
Glass
I do not have reading comprehension problems, as you imply. I also seem to know better what Germany and/or Poland have or do not have.
You tell that “Germany and Poland will begin nuclear weapons programs to serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression.” then you write “maybe that’s not a bad idea when you look at the euro ninny mess of today,” Somehow you are are forgetting that Germany and Poland do have access to nuclear weapons as a members of NATO so they do not need to, as you say, “begin nuclear weapons programs”. Also if they are EU countries of the “ninny mess” fame, they can hardly win any war in the next couple of years, particularly if US withdrew from NATO.
You are calling for Israeli strike against all surrounding it muslim countries without any casus beli; the Muslim Brothers and fundamentalist Islamists also would love Israel to strike indiscriminately all muslims countries. What a great propaganda coup for them!!!
As for withdrawal of US from NATO and leaving EU to its own devices — because that is what you propose writing “let them look after themselves “– it may have worked in XIX century, today it is XXI.
There is a common thread in your posts – you want every country for itself and want some countries to start war without any major provocation . These are NOT good advices.
I had the 3 possible outcomes as 1) military coup 2) islamist takeover and 3) open democratic govt
I now think #1- military coup- to be the most likely outcome. But what do I know- I’m just a caveman. One day I fell in some ice and was frozen…
Way to manipulate the results of the Pew Survey, Barry. No Bias on your end, huh!
When asked for their views about democracy, majorities in most of the Muslim communities surveyed say that democracy is preferable to any other kind of government.
More than nine-in-ten (94%) Muslims in Lebanon express negative opinions of al Qaeda, as do majorities of Muslims in Turkey (74%), Egypt (72%). And to be fair Bine Laden doesn’t think to highly of the Muslim Brotherhood. He thinks they are too soft and considers them puppets of both the Mubarak and US gov’t.
30% of Muslims in Egypt, and even fewer (5%) in Turkey, offer favorable views of Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based organization. Hezbollah receives its most positive ratings in Jordan, where 55% of Muslims have a favorable view; AND Jordanian Muslims express the most support of Hamas – 60% have a favorable view of Hamas – while Muslims in Turkey offer the least positive ratings (9% favorable and 67% unfavorable). Opinions of Hamas are nearly evenly split in Egypt and Lebanon.
*Personal observation—I would be FAR more worried about Jordanians support of Hamas & Hezbollah which in both cases exceeds that of Egypt*
ONLY In Jordan and Egypt do majorities of Muslims say there is NO struggle between modernizers and Islamic fundamentalists in their countries. About seven-in-ten (72%) Jordanian Muslims and 61% of Egyptian Muslims offer this opinion; just 20% and 31%, respectively, see a struggle in their countries.
So -of those 31% of Muslims who see a struggle in Egypt – slightly more than half of them identify with Islamic fundamentalists. 58% OF 31% identify with Islamic Fundamentalists. Wow. You ‘re so right — there is SUCH major concern about Egyptians embracing radical fundamentalist Islam.
There are more Christian fundamentalists in the US, then Muslim Fundamentalists in Egypt and MORE Fundamentalists in IRAQ then in Egypt.
The fragile experiment in Iraq & has a far greater chance of turning the gov’t of Iraq into a fundamentalist regime than Egypt will.
Now there’s a reality that few Americans will ever admit!. OMG! how can it be!! After all WE set the Iraqis free. WE have won over the hearts and minds of Iraqis. WE have shown them a better alternative to Saddam. When the American Military initiates a regime change in an Arab nation then it could NEVER become an Islamist state like Iran. But when the Egyptians– on their own– initiate a regime change then by god the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD WILL TAKE OVER AND CREATE AN ISLAMIST NATION!
Instead of worrying about a Muslim Brotherhood that has less than 20% support from Egyptians and that won’t dare flex its fundamentalist muscle in a land where an uprising of this magnitude has just occurred and will- in short time- have overthrown a 30 yr dictatorship without the intervention of the American or British Military or the use of the Egyptian Military – you’d be far wiser to be far more deeply concerned about Iraq.
Just imagine if the United States had recognized Vietnam when it had declared independence from France in 1946, a whole tragedy might have been avoided.
I do not understand your post, DangerGirl. Are you arguing that the Pew Poll says something other than what I said? In the Pew Poll, more than 70 percent of Egyptians favored Sharia penalties for robbery (cutting off limbs) and apostacy (beheading) — hardly an indication of a thirst for democracy as we understand it. What we are seeing are demonstrations by the urban population of Cairo — hardly a representative sample of Egyptians as a whole, a population with three times as many illiterates as college graduates! Or perhaps you are arguing that the Pew survey — hardly a right-wing source — is immaterial. Perhaps you are arguing that this is just a surface Islamism that reallly doesn’t matter, something everyone mouthes, but no one really belives. Which is it? If you are arguing either of the three, I think you are being foolish. The Pew Poll is quoted accurately; its results are not immaterial, which I suspect we shall see in coming days (the Muslim Brotherhood is the parent of Hamas); and it reflect REAL preferences by the Egyptian population. Or perhaps you are arguing that we have no right to impose our conception of democracy on THEIRS (Islamic democracy, the democracy of believers before Allah UNDER a Sharia legal system that ALL must obey), not representative goverment, tolerance, and the emancipation of women, as we understand it). In that case, you are just flat wrong and should not be surprised by what we get. Mubarak is not Saddam Hussein, a butcher on a mass scale whose continued power is intolerable. He IS a dictator, Joe Biden notwithstanding. But he is far preferable to a Muslim Brotherhood government, which will not be an Iranian-style theacracy, but a Hamas-style dictatorship that will be measurably worse for Egypt’s middle class and Coptic Christians.
Well instead of 1979 (the “Islamic Revolution” in Teheran) or 1989 (the fall of the Berlin Wall) may I suggest another option or fourth way or model? How about Germany between, say, 1848 (the failure of a middle class revolution and the subsequent rise of Bismark, WW1, and the failed Weimar Republic) and Germany’s ultimate dissolution by 1945 through the carpet bombing of its cities and its invasion by mass armies ( the military conquest of totalitarian Junker Germany by the middle class democracies in an alliance of convenience with the totalitarian Soviet Socialist Republic). LIke the Arabs, for a hundred years the Germans couldn’t get their act together ( and one could say the same about the Japanese after the Meji Restoration); hint, what glows in the dark and were formerly capitals in the middle east?
“34. Mike Reynolds
Israel conquered Sinai twice, and gave it back twice.”
@Mike,
I would say Israel conquered it 2.3 times because in 1948,they entered Sinai during operation “HOREV” and were prevented to go further because of”former Great” britain threats
In the meantime,some dogfights occurred over the sky and 6 RAF spitfires were shot down by Israeli spitfires…
http://www.zionism-israel.com/dic/operation_Horev.htm
Seems that the authors predictions are all baseless and far from accurate. As usual we Americans are loud ill informed people who love to always to have a boogie man to keep them scared. This is the crap that Mubarak and his regime have been feeding the west to stay in power, the muslim brother this, the muslim brotherhood that. Here is your 3B a year, just keep them under control. And the media here feeds you crap and you eat it up like a fat kid eats cake.
Stop and think people, let events play out first and pay closer attention, follow the story. Did anyone one Know that Egypt’s military chief of staff in an official public statement said that all foreign treaties that Egypt holds will continue to be honored? of course not, because all we want to hear is the boogie man. This author is no expert, nor is he accurate, because the people of Egypt, be them rich poor, peasants or bourgeois have proved him to be an incompetent analyst.
Power to people of Egypt, we should learn from them! They have the balls to hit the streets and stand up to the government, and topple it ! it took them 18 days with no one to lead them through, they just did it! Just like the heroes of our own revolutionary war. Balls!