Don’t Blame the Messenger — Obama Got a Decent Convention Bounce
1. There are four tracking polls that conduct interviews every day and average the results of 3-, 4-, or 7-day samples in their daily poll releases. The 7-day samples tend to be more stable, and the results reported each day move less than in the 3-day samples.
In each of the four tracking polls — Gallup, Reuters-Ipsos, Rand Corporation, and Rasmussen — Obama has received a bigger boost from his convention than Romney did from his. All of them now show Obama with a lead, ranging from 3.5 to 5 points.
The biggest poll bounce for Obama since the convention is in the Rasmussen survey, a poll that uses a likely voter screen, adjusts its sample to fit a model with slightly more Republicans than Democrats, and is judged by Nate Silver to have a small GOP lean this year compared to the average of all polls, even after Silver adjusts his model to take account of different results for likely-voter versus registered-voter polls. In the current Rasmussen poll released today, Obama leads by 50-45, his biggest lead in this poll since March 17. His approval rating, meanwhile, is at 52%, his highest in this poll since January 2011.
One can not know at this point if the Obama poll surge will fall off quickly, fall off slowly, or remain where it is (with a decent-sized Obama lead heading into the first debate on October 3). But it is simply wrong to say these polls show nothing more than that the fix is in and the pollsters are pulling one over on conservatives to diminish turnout. That is nonsense.
I do not take PPP polls seriously, but I think Gallup and Rasmussen are very serious polling organizations with a long track record — better in some years, worse in others (no different in that regard from Nate Silver’s elaborate models). The Rand tracking poll is a different species entirely — interviewing the same 3,500 voters once each week (500 a day) and allowing the respondents to give a percentage answer for their chances of voting (e.g 70%) and for which candidate (e.g., Obama 80%, Romney 20%). Certainly this poll does not include a sample more favorable for Obama than it did a week or two weeks ago. Reuters-Ipsos polls have been strong ones for Obama much of the year, and their tracking has been more volatile than the other polls, which have tended to be stable or move in one direction for several days at a time. I discount the results of this one a bit because of this.
2. There are some signs that the Obama surge began with Bill Clinton’s well-received speech at the convention. The terrible jobs report on Friday does not seem so far to have dimmed the boost Obama has received, though there are some indications that the surge has peaked. A few state poll numbers out today in Ohio and North Carolina by PPP are not particularly strong for Obama, and one in New Mexico shows a much tighter race (Obama up 5) than prior surveys in the state.
A week from now, my best guess is that the tracking polls will show a smaller Obama lead of perhaps 2-3 points, a bit more than he held before the conventions, but a tighter race than at this same point in 2008. I do not agree with Nate Silver that we may be seeing a decisive change in the race or that Obama’s current chances of winning are over 80%. A poll bump for several days right after a convention is normal. McCain led by 3% after the GOP convention in 2008 (and lost by 7.26%), and Silver’s model made McCain the favorite to win at that point. A week ago, Rasmussen had Romney up by 4% after the GOP convention.
The polls have been reasonably stable for most of the year and have been more volatile over the last two weeks — again, not surprising since more people are now engaged in the process. In retrospect, conservatives can rue the fact that more people did not watch the Giants-Cowboys game Wednesday night during Clinton’s speech.
If there is something to fight about, it is not the polls, but the mainstream media screen that obscures what comes out of the conventions or, for that matter, the daily campaign reports. Fewer than 15% of adults watched the biggest nights of each convention. For the rest, they received reports on what happened — online, on the evening news, on radio, and in newspapers and magazines.
For the GOP convention, the story line that came through was that Paul Ryan told a bunch of fibs and the fact-checkers nailed him. By and large, the charges against Ryan were nonsense, nothing more than talking points from a website called TalkingPointsMemo.com distributed to the media each morning. The charges against Ryan, as reported by TPM, wound up in pretty much every major newspaper. Romney’s speech was little reported. Instead, the focus of the final night of the GOP convention was on Clint Eastwood’s odd performance. The main story from the Democrats’ convention was that Bill Clinton made the greatest speech in convention history.
Is it any wonder that poll numbers after the Democrats’ convention moved the polling needle more for Obama than the Republicans’ convention did for Romney?
The election fundamentals have not changed one iota. The insiders in both R and O camps believe this is going to be very close (which does not favor the incumbent). The 2010 election did not break out into the wave until early October. R’s top strategists think that barring some unforseen event R will win–I tend to beleive them, especially when they commented correctly on NM last night the day before the PPP poll came out. O will be a one term president, just like he said he was going to be, if the economy didn’t turn around by 2012. O said it himself, not me.
There are two months to go before election day, so a number of things can happen to change the trajectory of the race. Outside of that you have nothing to base you assumptions on except speculation, and perhaps a bit of wishful thinking. One very, very, bad sign for Romney is that Ohio appears to be gone. President Obama will win Ohio. Romney, of course, has no one to blame except himself for this after saying he would have just let the auto industry go bankrupt. He will never win those voters over. The GOP is going to run into a big blue wall in Ohio (most notably, northern Ohio). The auto workers hate Romney.
Without Ohio the math is very difficult. Not to metnion the fact that Romney just isn’t a good candidate. You guys are to blame for that because you picked him. I understand your need and desire to keep a stiff upper lip, but unless the dynamics of the race change, your predictions will be for naught.
CW–are you from OH? Eastern OH or Western PA? The fundamentals of this election have not changed. O decided to go after coal, and he is poison south of Akron and west of Columbus. Combine this with fairly high unemployment that is not energy related in the Northeastern corner of OH east of Cleveland, and you start from weakness. Why do you think they’re sending Biden there–he can’t do any more harm than has already been done. Hamilton County will revert back to Repub (they are like IN in that sense) so that leaves you guys trying to boost turnout in Cleveland and to a lesser extent Columbus. I think the ruling overturning the ban on early voting will be overturned on appeal (the courts don’t like messing with elections) and this will not help the Dems there.
The early voting ban won’t be reinstated. Besides, if all you have left if to make it more difficult for people to vote then you’ve already lost. Think about it.
Asking people to show the same ID they are required to show to buy booze or cigarettes is making voting difficult for them. Checking the voter rolls to remove dead people is making it difficult to vote for them. Removing the Incarcerated, and helping families of people with Alzheimers (Ever heard of having to be Mentally Competent, Cynical Wonder?) remove their relative from the Voter Roll is making it difficult to vote.
Now, making it difficult for soldiers (but then again, Cynical Wonder Does Not Believe We Should Have Armed Forces, Or Police, for that matter) to mail their ballots in and have them be counted. THAT is making it difficult to vote. THAT IS AN OBAMA INITIATIVE.
C. Blunder has been running its sewage on PJM for years now under too many IDs to count. It has no interest in politics and debate, this misdirection is what it is.
Whether paid or not, approximately 90% of the Modern Liberal posts are “it” under many names. Notice getting in first here, at the top, setting up what it thinks is a debate with its stable of Persons Galore, and both Left and Right. The M.O. is quite obvious at this point.
It’s almost like Mr. Simon lets it in and uses “it” as a foil…
As a lifelong Republican, I have to agree.
All my relatives in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania have recently told me that they’ve all decided to vote for President Obama, to thank him for “saving the auto industry.”
Come on, man. If you had people in the auto industry, you’d know Obama didn’t save #$%*. He wrote giant government checks and kicked the disaster down the road, past the election… He sure as Hell didn’t “save” anything.
What Obama did do is crush successful car dealerships all across the country and dumped over a hundred thousand blue collar Americans into the street. You think these workers and their families will wake up early to vote for your failed President?
It’s not just about the auto industry. The hatred of all things republican is systemic. For the first time in 98 years, the 330,000-member Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) will not endorse a candidate for president this year. The FOP supported the Republican candidate for President in 2008, 2004, and 2000, and its non-endorsement is seen as a refutation of Mitt Romney.
Why the change? One big reason was Mitt Romney’s support of Senate Bill 5 in Ohio, which stripped collective bargaining rights from police officers. This is indeed incredible news. If they’ve lost the police and firefighters – two groups that have been ultra conservative for a long, long time – they’re bleeding. Bad.
It’s not just the individual police officers and firefighters whose votes will be lost. It makes others who support those organizations and individuals think it’s okay to not vote Republican. Ohio is gone.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/09/07/national-police-union-turns-down-romney/
No, it’s not. Your spin is not convincing. The FOP leadership may not endorse Romney but you’re fooling yourself if you really think that this equals the rank-and-file cops “hating” Romney. If you ARE serious then you need to wake up to reality. If you’re trolling then you should know that it won’t work.
Hey C. Blunder, who are “you people”?
21. Obi-jonKenobi
“I could go on but what’s the point, you people actually seem to ENJOY being lied to.”
August 30, 2012 – 9:52 am
Jaycen
“You people don’t care…”
August 26, 2012 – 5:55 pm
Cynical Wonder
“What you people…”
August 26, 2012 – 5:01 pm
You do know that “lifelong Republican” is code for lifelong Democrat, right?
Cynical Wonder, did you forget that the both GM and Chrysler DID file for bankruptcy?
My middle class auto worker neighborhood in northern Ohio is supporting Romney 8 to 2. I expect union ‘grassroot volunteers’ to start banging on our front doors soon and the signs from our yards to also disappear.
The reality of higher food prices and tripling utility costs due to 19 Ohio power plant shutdowns, and escalating tuition is apparent to all.
The advertising non-stop on tv of clinton claiming taxes will go down and Romney will raise them on everyone except hte rich has backfired. Lies are lies and people are taking notice.
Maybe I just have a fighting spirit: If the polls are DOWN for Romney, shouldn’t that ENCOURAGE Republicans to get out and vote??
Yes, it should. It has me.
..on the other hand, I believe that the fuzzy good news could contribute to a hazy coma-like narcolepsy for the Dems who have lost enthusiasm and aren’t that eager to turn out for Obama. It might induce more of them to stay home.
Cousin Pookie might even slumber on the couch until November 23rd, when they wake him up for Thanksgiving Dinner.
Yes – twice – or more…
– failure.
Since when have we had any reason to believe the legacy media? Rush spoke of this today but has brought this subject up before. The Left will do anything to make us feel discouraged.
Color me discouraged. Gallup and Rasmussen not only show Obama to be 5 points over Romney; they show Obama’s approval ratings to be their highest since the bin Laden kill.
Let’s face it, the DNC worked a lot better than the RNC. I haven’t looked closely at the polls, but either Obama rallied his base or he snagged some indies.
Now I’m hanging my increasingly slim hopes on the debates. Help us, Ryan-wan Kenobi.
THE SHILLS, FAKES, PHONIES, “FIFTH COLUMNISTS”, ETC. ARE OUT IN FORCE. Their goal: Make “white be black”; “wrong be right”; and so forth. THESE ARE ALL MEDIA WHORES OF ONE STRIPE OR ANOTHER–AND THEY WILL ALL GO DOWN TO HELL SOON ENOUGH: Let’s put it to rhyme:
“THE DEVIL’S WHORES”
One day in hell, the Devil said,
“Come minions, let us think:
America’s out of sync,
They’re almost at the brink!
But our boy BO and his HO JOE are really getting hit,
Their lies just aren’t worth spit!
Their groupies might just quit!
What can we do to keep the Kool-Aid flowing?”
Lots of inventive things we’re said,
And pondered on that day—
But devils need not pray,
Nor ever go away!
They just get crazy devious,
Their speeches get more tedious,
Their falsehoods more mischievous!
And so it went till Satan stopped them all!
“We’re thinking far too hard right now,”
He exclaimed with a devilish grin,
“If we really want to win,
“We’ll rely on MEDIA’S sins!
“They’ll always claim that black is white,”
“And swear that “wrong is right”
“That way, we’ll top this fight.”
And the USA will fall to rise no more!
The FAKES and WHORES were called again,
BO’s HOs talked everywhere,
Putting people in a scare,
Claiming truths that “just weren’t there”!
Thus BO the Liar and Joe the Clown,
Just turned truth upside down:
“We’re winning this Hands Down!”
Doubt us?—ask our MEDIA whores—they know it all!
NO RIGHTS RESERVED
After the DNC, perhaps those being polled thought that Clinton was running again. Or, perhaps they thought that Obama was going to live up to his promises,i.e. “focused like a laser on jobs.” Perhaps the sincere patriotism of the American public is certain that the POTUS would not tell better stories.
I first became concerned when the convention network ratings also showed a 6% DNC viewership lead over the RNC, distributed across all networks.
Many have mentioned Carter’s huge polling lead over Reagan but that measure can go both ways as we see from the amazing 10% differential from the McCain polling above.
Their message – free money for your vote – is so much simpler, so much more appealing than ours, let’s admit it. It brings to mind the sad fact that half of the population is of below average intelligence.
Yes half the population is of below average intelligence, but which way do they vote? Just for kicks I compared state votes for McCain and Obama to the porportion of the population who were obese and the proportion of the population that had a college degree. States with heavier less educated populations voted more Republican and both factors were statistically significant. I also looked at dental health but I don’t remember the result of that.
Given that being overweight is a pretty massive risk factor for all kinds ill-health and life threatening conditions it seems like the populations of Republican voting States are like turkeys voting for Christmas, or maybe like turkeys voting against the health care package they will need to get to christmas (that metaphor got away from me). Maybe if they were better educated they;d make better choices. Who can say?
I recall Utah was an exception: there they are Republican, dim, but just as you would expect, healthy,
Red states are also the biggest recipients of federal dollars compared to blue states. They like to bash the government but they sure like sticking their noses in federal trough. The little secret is that republicans love socialism. The only difference between republicans and Democrats are the individuals or groups the socialism is directed towards.
The reason the data seem to indicate more federal dollars going to red states is that more military bases are located in red states–you’re trying to call that socialism?
I hear libs repeating this stuff a lot so I decided to go hunting. The facts are hardly a slam-dunk for you.
When adjusting federal expenditures by the amount of income tax collected we have the following top recipients of federal aid:
1 Alaska
2 Virginia
3 Maryland
4 Hawaii
5 New Mexico
6 Kentucky
7 Alabama
8 West Virginia
9 Connecticut
10 North Dakota
Of these 4 are reliable red states, 4 are reliable blue states and 2 are toss-ups. Of the 10 at least half make the list from extensive military installations and defense contracting.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/government/2012/08/03/states-that-get-most-federal-money/
He’s being what he always is: a disgusting, stupid, uninformed, idiot troll. He cites nonexistant facts and gives non-sequitors an even worse name than they already had. Facts and logic know him not.
Alas, we are beplagued of him at all hours of the day (how did I get into this medieval style? I don’t even like it that much!) unto utter boredom and tiresomeness. Yet, we can somehow ne’er be rid of him and his stupidity. We sufferreth him not, but begone he simply will not be! He adds nothing to the course of our conversation and just wastes our time (some of us, who are actually fools enough themselves to follow his stupid links, alas always find them too obtuse to even fathom, as they are the mindturd of some utterly halfbaked doltish fool and knave, who must be much engaged with the product of his codpiece and his soilsheet, much as the wildman (monkey for you, you Cynical Dipshit) playeth with himself unto death. Or, he’s an academic. Much the same, think thee not?
In other words, he’s a frikkin’ troll, and has nothing interesting to say, but he will simply not stop saying it! (Think of the kid who always stank like poop, yet always butted into the conversation when he wasn’t wanted, with an inane aside having nothing whasoever to do with the topic at hand). Cynical, my butt! Stinky, probably!
Grow up with seven brothers and sisters and you soon learn when someone just has too much time upon their hands, and too little thought in their heads.
And that basement must STINK! Probably like poop.
So, now that you have irked me into wasting my time, whatcha got, Cynical Dipshit?
(Sorry, dcanner, you are merely caught in the crossfire. You seem a fine fellow!
I’m warming to this style, though. I hope you like it.)
If only there were gloves on the internet, to initiate a duel! Roger, you need to work on that!
Screw the smileyfaces! Swords and pistols! And, of course, gloves!
John J, thanks for the smile.
Go forth ye and slay the Dragon! (Ms. Fine Fellow)
dcanner – do as I do – when I see CW postings I just skip to the next post. As you said – he posts nothing but total drivel.
There is one simple expedient for eliminating Cynical Wonder from this site. Ban him.
Then again, he is allowed here to get a rise out of everyone else. He is a shill, paid?, unpaid? Who would pay such an idiot? He is unpaid.
You can have real debate here, without Trolls. Start with ignoring him when he comes around again. Talk around him. Act like he is not here.
There is a Troll-Seeker on Facebook with a Page about Sandra Fluke. He has set up the page, and trounces on everyone who comes in with an opposition view. He has, in effect, set out a bowl of sugar water to draw the flies, so he can pull the wings off of them. Sick bastard.
Ban Cynical Wonder. Make this a respectable site.
Better yet, crucify him!
Everyone should just take a deep breath and remember this is America. Sticks and stones will break your bones…Stop and think what this looks like. You invent an identity for one comment that reveals your Stalinist roots. I have taken part in these forums for some years and recognize the posters being called trolls now. They may recognize me. They are angry conservative/libertarians, they have principles, they were co-opted in the primary process by plutocratic establishment elites. You are a hypocritical vulgarian ready to hand out truncheons to latter day brown shirts. God gave you reason too, please use it.
Guess which one of these is C. Blunder. Or…
Fallacy #1: A college education makes one more intelligent
Fallacy #2: Obese people are stupid. (Bigoted much?)
Fallacy #3: People only vote their economic self-interest and NOT what is best for the whole country.
#1 might be a fallacy in that you don’t need to be intelligent to get all college degrees or maybe even most. But there is a proportion that you really do need to be smart to get: physics and such. Now assuming that the profile of college degrees is fairly smilar accross states, the proportion of college degrees should be reasonably related to an average something to with intelligence. But yes it’s a minefield.
#2 I wasn’t suggesting that people were stupid because they were fat. That would be ridiculous, wrong and offensive. I was suggesting that being Republican made you more likely to be stupid and fat. Is that better??
{Really all the numbers say is that it’s living in a state with more Republican voters that makes you fat. We don’t actually know its the Republicans who are fatter although that is one plausable explanation)
#2.5 Really I was only messing around anyway. I mean I did look up the numbers and I did analyse them and found the kind of relation I described and it was ‘statistically significant’ but there are about 50 problems with drawing those kind of conclusions.
#3 Good point. Although we are very rarely presented with that choice. Our politicians always claim that what’s good for their voters personal interests also happens to align with what is more economically effcient and best for the country as a whole. Health care is a good example of that.
Thank you for the courtesy of a respectful reply.
#1 I have a problem equating education with intelligence. Knowing so-called facts and regurgitating them for a lefty professor and paying for x number of credit hours doesn’t make you intelligent. Period.
#2 “I was suggesting that being Republican made you more likely to be stupid and fat. Is that better??” No, not better. I’m thin, college educated and Republican. There are just as many fat inner-city folks (vote democrat if they vote at all) as fat rural folks (vote republican if they vote at all)
#2.5 Backtrack accepted
#3 Many of us low to middle income Republicans vote for principles, not cash.
After that freakshow in Charlotte, you have the balls to say that ANYTHING is wrong with Republicans?
You, sir, are the merest twit.
PERIOD.
Correlation does not equal causation.
So all the skinny, intelligent people voted for Obama. This helps your case how?
” I was suggesting that being Republican made you more likely to be stupid and fat. Is that better??’
Not really as the reality is that democrats are more likely to be stupid and fat.
When I read the newspaper every morning, even living in a conservative state, the paper is full of positive articles about Obama and negative about Romney. If Romney does something positive, the way it is written and reported will spin it in a negative manner.
Like it or not, when the main bread winner in a family is not doing well and is looking for someone to blame, it is an easy task for a willing media to do a favor their their favorite candidate by willingly portraying his or her opposition negatively and using any means necessary to place blame for the bread winner’s hard times on the opposition.
In 1999, Bill Clinton signed into law the one piece of legislation that has been directly linked to the economic collapse of 2007 and 2008. He signed G-B-L into law. Clinton wanted to do away with Glass-Steagal in order to expand CRA by further deregulating banks and lending institutions. With no one guarding the gate, the flood of money to people who had no business borrowing $250,000 on a $25,000 salary and speculators who could flip houses without having the means to cover their losses lined up for loans they didn’t have to qualify for. When the alarm bell was sounded by GWB, it was ignored but when the collapse occurred, he was blamed.
Now, Obama has used the crime of Clinton to drive a wedge between the citizens of this country and he has been engaged in overt class warfare from the beginning. The people who are hurting the most are the ones he is targeting and it is my sincere belief that if the economy does not improve, they will turn out in record numbers to give him a second chance.
At my age, I can only hope the voters will wake up and understand what has happened to them and will have the courage to do what is necessary to set the economy back on the right path. But, for the moment anyway, I have my doubts that the voters are willing to listen to the truth and they will vote for who is willing to continue putting food on their table, a roof over their heads, at no real cost to them.
I hope I am wrong.
You still read NEWSPAPERS?
There’s this internet thingy….OH!
I guess you must know about it already.
Sorry.
But when will you learn that only commies work at newspapers or the networks?
It’s been so since at least 1970. But, perhaps it was only 60%, then. Time to catch up. All the rest are just lying to you! For all I know, many PJM writers are lying to you. In fact, most people lie to you, today. It’s become acceptable; perhaps even an attribute.
I blame Madison Ave. They are such bad people…really…you should know some…your stomach would turn…they’re quite disgusting. And have been for over half a century.
Even Fox is now “mainstreamed”, to some extent. Especially O’Reilly, because he doesn’t want you to ever know just how stupid he really is. But why have Beckel, who has spent his whole disgusting life lying for leftist Union scum, given the same credence as actual conservatives like that little midget Gutfeld (a mighty Oak from a tiny acorn grows)?
Learn to think for yourself. If you don’t know how, see “Guys and Dolls”; the scene about the lemon. It’ll open your eyes. And it’s ALWAYS true!
ALWAYS. (Besides, it’s a fun movie.)
Con-men count on it. There is no requirement to go along, except your own insecurities.
Luke. Embrace the force.
Is ‘the fix in’ – its hard to say actually. It seems like recent polls really have not been of the quality of pre-2008 polls. I believe the polling in Wisconsin overstated the Dems support there pretty significantly.
Frankly its hard to separate the polling data from the fact that lots of people who supported Barry in 2008 don’t like him or at best are blah about him.
I’m far from a Romney fanboy but I don’t believe the polling is very high quality this year.
Less than a week before these new polls, they were telling us that 54% of likely voters do not believe that Obama deserves a second term. Obama’s job approval numbers have consistently come in at less than 48 percent for three years. But now we are to believe that Obama is up well over 50% in the polls. Why does anyone take this crap seriously? To me, the very fact that media polling becomes ever more “important” as voter guides with each passing election tells me that something stinks. A few weeks before the 1980 vote, Reagan was “behind” Jimmy “the total ass” Carter by five points. Then the Gipper won by 10. Bush was behind by a point or two in all the polls on the eve of the election. He beat Kerry with a comfortable 2.5 lead. This obsession will polling in the media is well out of hand. It doesn’t make me worried. I KNOW that Obama will lose in a landslide in November. But it does wear me out, and it makes we want to just tune out and keep my powder dry.
Making comparisons to a race that was over thirty years ago are irrelevant. The demographics of the country are so different now that the same rules don’t apply. The fact is President Obama had a good bounce out of the convention. You don’t have to believe anything but what you believe doesn’t change the way things really are.
“The demographics of the country are so different now that the same rules don’t apply.”
For once CW, you are exactly right…
With higher levels of unapologetic dependency, schools providing two meals a day plus “take home” groceries on the weekends at the same time the parents are getting food stamps, subsidized housing and even free cell phones, not to mention federal “bonuses” to States that dramatically boost welfare rolls, bailouts galore, hell even the Chicago Teachers just turned just down a 16% pay increase cause it wasnt enough and went on strike in a recession,, the Demographics sure as shootin’ are a whole lot different today, thanks to to the Left and their endless giveaway programs.
People may indeed vote more free pie in 2012…thats where they went in ’08, and thats the plan Liberal Statists like you have been shooting for for 50 years…all that free money, O.P.M….. and they just might make it happen THIS year, for good….
That long dreamed of 50.1% voting themselves the unearned wealth of those hapless, productive chumps who werent smart enough to get with the DNC….
All you need is 50.1%….And you’re almost there with Parasitic Unions, media bias, and 16 trillion, $135,000 per household national debt racked up buying the votes….dead voters, illegal voters, suppressed Military voters, its so CLOSE its agonizing, isnt it?
Can you kick the can another cycle, prop things up by Printing up MORE Worthless Greenbacks, have your media friends scream “racist” LOUD enough, just a LITTLE while longer, to finally, FINALLY make it over the top this year?
50.1% either bought off, or falling for The Big State Lie…that free money exists everywhere, that we can Spend Our Way to Happiness, and all you have to do is vote for it?
Your Shyster Con Artist is one Slippery Dude, its going to be close, thats for sure.
Then when it all implodes because they’ve run the well dry, they’ll all rush out into the streets to blame those greedy heartless conservatives who hide the last little bit of cash, and they’ll fight over the scraps while we get marched off to the “camps,” and when they finally start turning on each other and realize the full horror of what they’ve actually done, it’ll be far, far too late.
Uh, no, he is not right about ANYTHING. He is an idiot. Statistics is a branch of mathematics, not political science, or social science generally. Social scientists, and journalists, and insanely-overpaid political analysts use, abuse, and wipe their asses with “statistics” on a daily basis. So what can you say? People are stupid. Democrats prey on that.
“…but what you believe doesn’t change the way things really are.”
What about “you people” C. Blunder?
Cynical Wonder
“…you people genuflect and spread your rear cheeks for to follow up on that one. Weak …”
July 14, 2012 – 9:45 pm
Indeed. “Weak”.
Two old Persons Galore! The Wayback Machine speaks!
41. Your Sensei
THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS! . . .”
“…looking at you people…”
January 9, 2011 – 7:02 pm
39. Moho:
“…you people really do make me feel like an intellectual giant.”
Jan 8, 2010 – 5:38 pm
Need more? So who else?
A “little” lying goes along way, right? The Blunder justifies the Lie. Of course, reality is only for anyone but C. Blunder. Exposed and no place to go. Hmmm….
The Modern Liberal Big Truth Teller is just a deflection myth devised to justify a non existent styrofoam moral compass.
Nice to see you stick around long enough for all here on PJM to hear that massive ripping/lying sound emanating from Uranus, you know, what you would call “the way things really are”.
Buuuuck, buck, buck, buck.
They don’t need to be “aligned”, stupid.
They all belong to the same stupid political bubble that got us into this mess.
Who the hell answers their phones any more, without KNOWING who is on the other end, and what the Hell they want? So they, like all the “elites” who currently infest our lives, just make shit up, and they especially do this when their boy then looks good. But they are “experts”. Just “experts” who’ve never, ever been right in my entire life (or theirs)! Yet stupid people still listen to them. It’s the plan, not a problem, to these scummy elites.
Never forget. Reagan was toast up until the moment the doors opened at the polls. 12 Hours later, Carter was packing. He got hisself hurt in a landslide.
I went to vote, and at a place where I had never seen 20 people, there was a line a half mile long.
I think you’ll all get to experience much the same thing, in November.
Chic-Fil-A wasn’t a (Sandra) Fluke (shouldn’t it be spelled differently, the little whore? She has most of the letters she needs to be correctly named, they’re just disorganized, like her stupid, selfish, narcissistic, horny head.). But the propaganda will never stop, and the media, who still treat every utterance from Washington like Holy Writ, instead of the merest propagandist BS and outright lies. These people don’t deal in truth and reality. They deal in “The Narrative”, because, after all, there is no such thing as TRUTH! It’s all merely a “construct”. And they’re all idiots. Thieving idiots. When it pays well to lie, there is never a shortage.
Funny. My Mom always told me NOT to tell stories! I guess their moms didn’t like them much, either. They musta had good sense.
The polls are rigged to make Obama look strong. The PPP polling oversampled D’s by +10. Yeah, right! If Obama was in great shape, why sue Gallup? The polling serves one purpose, to dis-spirit the Republican party. No other reason! Romney will win the election with +2/+4 R advantage, he will carry I’s by +15/+18, and the women vote will be close but favor Obama. Also, African American turnout will be down 12% from 2008.
Mark my words, there will never again be a Republican President of the United States. That ship has sailed.
We haven’t seen the debates yet. They are more important than conventions.
Yeah.
I need to hire a competent and able manager to get this chaotic, destructive mess under control, before it eats us up completely.
I guess the wittiest guy should be “it”, huh? Regardless of his demonstrable incompetence?
Don’t speak stupidity. Fight it, instead.
Debates. Because that has been working out so well, given the media backing of Dems since before Kennedy. Mr. Kennedy, how often do you pet your kittycat? Mr. Nixon, when, exactly, did you cease beating your wife?
It ain’t a debating club. It’s called life, and when you screw up sufficiently, you frikken DIE! No matter who “won” the debate.
Got it now?
Election fundamentals matter. Unless there is a sudden rush to get unemployment under 7.5% in the next 45 days, O is starting from a very bad place. This election is being fought on Romney’s terms–the economy is issue number 1, 2, and 3 in every poll regardless of the horse race. There are also local issues like coal and fracking in some states, immigration in others, but these are fringe issues. Personal popularity and “momentum” are also fringe issues. Think about that for a minute. What this election has been about from day 1 is a terrible economy which the policies and lack of focus of our first black president have not improved. Were it not for the 95% support of the black population (and to a lesser extent (65%) the Latino population) in spite of the economy (and who would blame them for voting for Obama come hell or high water), Obama would be down by 5-7% at a minimum. All of the current models assume turnout for blacks and latinos at 2008 levels–that is very wishful thinking. This one is going to stay close until October, then Romney will pull away as the message sinks in and people do what they need to do. Clint Eastwood summed it up in one sentence: we are the boss, they are our employees, and if they aren’t doing the job, we have to let them go.
Strange thing.
I’m not a regular PJ reader. Last time I was here much was around the last election. Then the commenters and some of the contributors had these weird fantasies, in the face of all evidence, about how Obama was absolutely going to loose. The PUMAS were on the rise; Obama the Muslim; Obama the not-an-American; Obama the Marxist could NEVER WIN.
Now there is a real race on that could go either way and it seems like the tone is much more Republicans-are-doomed.
Why the mismatch?
There is no mismatch…..
Clinton gave a great speech, but that was only a part of it. The two conventions completed and comparing the parties side-by-side, people are deciding they do not like the Republican party. Sharp-tongued, intelligent, snide, confident, energetic, a bit arrogant. Nobody likes smartasses. The USDP base of public employees, pensioners, union workers and minorities see the GOP as everything they are not, are threatened, and have no reason to be complacent. This will be a reversal of the 2004 race where George Bush edged out John Kerry on the same dynamics. Don’t have to expect it to be as close, however……..
Your recall may be malfunctioning. I was around here 4 years ago. I had the distinct feeling that it was McCain that couldn’t win. Hope and change was all the rage – seems Dear Leader hasn’t changed the speeches racked up on the teleprompter – he’s still preaching it.
Its all he has this time since his record is so pathetic.
This go-round I get the distinct feeling that its Zero who can’t win. And he will lose if people wake up and realize just how dismal his record is.
“Making comparisons to a race that was over thirty years ago are irrelevant. The demographics of the country are so different …”
SCREW demographics, you dunce, we are talking about the reliability of polls. Then, not so long ago, and now. Demographics has NOTHING whatsoever to do with statistical theory. Have you ever even taken statistics?
Here is a tune for all the eyeores out there….your listening to Radio K.A.O.S.
When the Levee Breaks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOEQTJV_3-w
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break,
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break,
When The Levee Breaks I’ll have no place to stay.
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan,
Got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home,
Oh, well, oh, well, oh, well.
Don’t it make you feel bad
When you’re tryin’ to find your way home,
You don’t know which way to go?
If you’re goin’ down South
They got no work to do,
If you’re going NORTH to Chicago.
Cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good,
Now, cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.
All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
Thinkin’ about my baby and my happy home.
Going, going to Chicago.. Going to Chicago.. Sorry but I can’t take you..
Going down.. going down now.. going down…
Greatest.
Band.
EVER.
Oh, he got a bounce, but its being over-estimated.
First, if you look at swing state polls, its obvious that the bounce in those states wasn’t nearly as big. Case in point, todays Rasmussen Swing State tracking poll only had Obama up plus one, and the PPP polls that came out since the convention show only a point or two of improvement verses PPP’s last polls.
There are two explanations for the disparity between national polls and the swing state polls. Either the bounce is coming mostly from blue states, or, its coming mostly from unlikely voters. Gallop tracks registered voters rather than likely voters, and seeing as Rasmussen national tracking poll looks so similar I suspect they aren’t filtering out many unliklies just yet.
Personally, I suspect its a combination of the two.
Second, all these polls not only come out on the heels of the democratic convention, but were mostly taken during the weekend as well. Pollsters don’t like talking about this much, but weekend polling tends to favor democrats slightly, namely because it removes some regular church goers and family oriented voters from being available. Weekends polling typically doesn’t swing things towards democrats too much, but it can buff their numbers by a point or two.
So, we’ve got polling taken when democrat enthusiasm is likely to be at its highest, AND when more democrats are available to poll as well.
With this in mind I wouldn’t be surprised to see polls tighten back up to a near exact tie by weeks end. The voters moved purely by enthusiasm will start having second thoughts by then, and weekend polling will be moved out of the system. That alone would be sufficient to tighten things back up, and by then we’ll have a better idea what the state of this race actually is.
In May of last year if memory serves, Obama got a big bump in approval when Bin Laden killed – it lasted all of two weeks, until the reality of personal economics set in.
Don’t get discouraged – it’s a long game. If Americans have proven anything, they are entirely fickle and emotional. And no matter what the polls say at one moment to the next, there is one poll that has stayed pretty constant – enthusiasm.
And I still believe the Republicans will walk through glass barefoot to vote this time. I know I will.
I’m going to give it everything I got for the next two months. If we get beat, don’t let it be a lack of effort. Now is the time to turn up the heat.
The founding fathers thought a free press was a given, and put in the Constitution language that makes it clear how important they felt it was to have one.
Meaning unbiased. Free and willing to tell the truth.
Unfortunately, we no longer have a free press. Now, as you know all to well, it’s very very biased, and very very pro Obama.
This bias is worth from 5 to 10 percentage points for Obama in polling done by Gallup and Rasmussen, the two most down the middle, reputable polling organizations.
So today when Rasmussen showed Obama leading 50 to 45 percent, you have to consider what the numbers really would be with a free press; anywhere from 50/50 to Romney 55 to 50 up on Obama.
The 5 to 10 point lead the biased press (including TV, magazines, newspapers, etc) gives Obama will carry through to the election. Meaning to win the election total vote, Romney must win by 6 percentage points. Subtract the 5% biased edge and Romney would hypothetically win the raw vote by one point.
One crucial factor not allowed for in polls is the white anger at Obama’s racist policies, opinions and innuendos which started with letting the Black Panther voter intimidators get off scot free when Eric Holder ordered the Philadelphia case dropped.
If this white anger boils over, it’ll most likely happen in the voting booths on November 6, election day.
Of course, Democrat leadership has been aware of this white anger potential ever since Obama’s been President. That’s why they constantly are accusing whites of racism. It’s really a very clever tact.
Besides the Obama media bias advantage, Obama has another big advantage. His communications team; specifically his commercial creating group is far superior to Romney’s. Which amounts to about 2 percentage points overall. This is nobody’s fault but Romney’s. And, as I see it, puts Romney on a par with McCain’s ineptness at being the head of the ticket. Which is why I call Romney Mitt McCain.
When you add in the willingness of the Democratic Party to partake in voter fraud, along with preventing half of the overseas military ballots from being counted, the likelihood of Obama winning is high.
Should Obama win, the only hope for the United States remaining a viable world leader is to hold the majority in both houses of Congress and sweat out the next four years until the idiot vote in this country realizes what snakes in the grass the Democrats really are. They’re evil to the core.
True, dyed in the wool, socialist extremists are running this country into the ground. Which has been their intention since day one. Every vote for Obama is another nail in this country’s coffin.
“Of course, Democrat leadership has been aware of this white anger potential ever since Obama’s been President. That’s why they constantly are accusing whites of racism. It’s really a very clever tact.”
I am not sure of that, Rachel. Many people are tired of being told they are racist if they question, say, Obama’s economic policies or his sealed student records. Large backlash potential, I think, as much as among moderate white as among conservatives.
Seriously, let’s get a grip here.
Carter led Reagan. Kerry led Bush. Bush led Clinton. We know how those stories all ended.
As far as I know no incumbent has ever won reelection with an economic record this disastrous. No one has ever won election by ducking the issue rated as top importance by more than 70% of the electorate. Voters keep saying they care about the economy, and they also keep saying they don’t like what Obama’s done with it.
Does Romney have it in the bag? Of course not. But declaring the election over and giving Obama four more years is just a wee bit premature, I’m thinking.
Most of the polls most of the time had Carter beating Reagan and some by quite a margin. Didn’t ‘quite’ work out that way in November at the actual polls. Their explanation for their being off so much – last minute swing to Reagan. I never believed that.
You’re listening to Radio K.A.O.S.
Who Needs Information
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oY5sJ2OF744
[Jim:] “You’re from the valley?”
[Billy:] “No, Jim you schmuck, the Valleys, Wales;
Male voice choirs” [Jim:] “Wales! Now is this sperm or blue-tip?”
[Billy:] “Ha, ha, ha, ha. Very funny Jim.”
[Jim:] “Sorry.”
[Billy:] “Me and Benny went out.”
[Jim:] “Who’s Benny?”
Me and Benny went out last night
Looking for fun
Supping ale in the moonlight
Waiting for the dawn to come
Benny pointed at a HiFi shop
He said, hey man, look at all the stuff they’ve got
How’d you make a have out of a have not
Who needs information
When you’re working underground
Just give me confirmation
We could win a million pounds
Benny climbed up on a footbridge
And he teetered on the parapet
He said, can you see the whites of their headlights
Are they coming yet
Who needs information
This high off the ground
Just give me confirmation
We could win a million pounds
Who needs information
When you’re living in constant fear
Just give me confirmation
There’s some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out
Benny hefted a breeze block
And tried to let go
Got hung up on a tear drop
So me and Benny went home
Who needs information
When you’re living in constant fear
Just give me confirmation
There’s some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out of here
Some way out
Who needs information
Yeah
When you’re living on borrowed time
Just give me confirmation
There will be a winner this time
Who needs information
When you’re working underground
Just give me confirmation
We could win a million pounds
Who needs
Who needs
Who needs information
This high off the ground
Just give me confirmation
We could win a million pounds
[Jim:] “Um. (lights a cigarette)
So your brother’s in jail?”
Good night all you eeyore’s out there in conservative land. Sweet Dreams.
The Tide is Turning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66nqhVtq6xo
I used to think the world was flat
Rarely threw my hat into the crowd
I felt I had used up my quota of yearning
Used to look in on the children at night
In the glow of their donald duck light
And I frighten myself with the thought of my little ones burning
Oh, oh, oh, the tide is turning
Oh, oh, oh, the tide is turning
Satellites buzzing through the endless night
Exclusive to moonshots and world title fights
Jesus christ, imagine what it must be earning
Who is the strongest
Who is the best
Who holds the aces
The east
Or the west
This is the crap our children are learning
And oh, oh, the tide is turning
Oh, oh, the tide is turning
Oh, oh, oh, the tide is turning
Oh, oh, oh, the tide is turning
Oh, oh, oh, the tide is turning
Now the satellite’s confused
‘cos on saturday night
The airwaves were full of compassion and light
And his silicon heart warmed
To the sight of a billion candles burning
But, I’m not saying that the battle is won
But on saturday night all those kids in the sun
Wrested technology’s sword from the hand of the war lords
Oh, the tide is turning
Oh, the tide is turning
Oh, the tide is turning
Oh, the tide is turning
(repeated)
Well…what about the rats leaning on Gallup a la Godfather recently? Have heard no mention about this at all.
Ya gotta love these rascally guys!!! Using the power of the Federal Government? What nerve!
http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-thugs-rough-up-gallup-for-polls-they-dont-like/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
We will see. After the rounds of D+10 polls, I don’t trust them unless I can see the details.
That goes double now that the administration has been threatening pollsters that didn’t break their way. More, since they wouldn’t do something that destructive if they weren’t desperate for good numbers.
Yes, the polls are skewed – some less absurdly than others, but all of them are skewed because they are presuming a turnout model in some way similar to 2008. Why they should do this is beyond me – I don’t know why they are working on the assumption that 2010 didn’t happen.
One only has to see what Obama and Co are doing to understand the true State of the race – they are trying not so much to pump up their own side but to depress the GOP side. They are doing this likely because their internal polls are showing a surge of GOP voters. Our little Talking Points Memo who has been coming here the last couple days to tell us that Romney has already lost Ohio is just part of the program.
Don’t listen to the nonsense – we beat them in to the ground in 2010 and we’ll beat them in to the ground again this year.
Dead cat bounce?
The cat has crash landed already.
They have to skew the polls if they don’t want to be Gallup 2.
http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-thugs-rough-up-gallup-for-polls-they-dont-like/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Excellent summation! Do Gallup & Rasmussen give the actual party breakdown and/or 2008 vote history of respondents? Seems to me the voting history in particular would be a good check on the results, allowing for aging in the electorate. Here’s what looks to me like a pretty good poll for Romney from IBD, given their +5 Dem sample, showing Obama up 2. http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points
A massive longitudinal study (http://healthland.time.com/2012/08/28/does-weekly-marijuana-use-by-teens-really-cause-a-drop-in-iq/) of marijuana use during teenage years has indicated that if a person begins smoking marijuana before age 18 and continues to smoke it frequently for 20 years, he will experience an average IQ loss of 8 points. Obama’s problematic personality (narcissism) is not the only non-political factor that should disqualify him from being President. Given his history of substance abuse (Choom Gang, nicotine addiction) and frequent verbal missteps, the cited research suggests that he may simply not be bright enough to entrust with national office. He reduced his qualifications every time he toked up. Very few Americans, if staffing their own business, would choose to hire a pothead over a straight-arrow. Spread the meme.
What’s up with all the hand-wringing? Of course, PPP, CNN and NYT, to mention a few of the card-carrying soldiers of ObamaLand, will fudge. They are panicked and have been all summer. Republicans should think as Obama does. The One is not looking for a national majority. He has long ago black-balled the 53% he got in 2008 as not only an aberration but as inconsequential. His sniper-eye is focussed inexorably on 270 electoral college votes. Is it possible to get to 270 without getting the national majority? Absolutely. Bill Clinton got to 270 while getting only 43% of the national vote.
Romney should discount the 5% lead that Obama apparently has, post Convention. Look to the eleven swing states. These same polls that give Obama a 5-6% national majority only give him a 46-45 lead in the swing states. Whatever bounce Obama has is limited to the bluest of blue states. Elsewhere, he’s toast.
Cheer up, GOP. Have a beer.
Richard Baehr,
Thank you for a reasonable analysis on the current political polling. I’m glad someone doesn’t think that Nate Silver is perfect.
Why is it that everyone thinks that Silver is the guy to go to? He has very little political polling experience (This is his 2nd presidental cycle.).
Unless it’s a poll of likely voters with the party affiliation split evenly (another approx. 1/3 independent) the methodology is skewed. Usually they oversample Ds by about 10% to get the result they want.
Oh, you thought opinion polls were made to MEASURE opinion? Au contrairie, it’s designed to shape it. The media push polls for their boyfriend, O.
Similarly, the government is fudging inflation figures. Inflation is 10% if calculated as they did in the 1970s. Even people who suspect systematic lying on the part of the media can only do so much to overcome the resulting bad information.
But don’t be too positive. It’s very tight despite the fact Obama has horrible unemployment and a slowing economy. And Mitt Romney’s commercials here in the Highest Concentration of Indy Voters in the Holy Swing State of Florida are so bad I think someone from Soros has infiltrated.
Hint: three vague goals is not a “plan.” Romney seems to be running the Obama playbook.
It amazes me how people who refuse to educate themselves claim Romney doesn’t have a “plan”.
No good deed goes unpunished. Fine, I’ll spell it in crayon. You can’t do a commercial where your plan is “find alternatives to foreclosure” or “create 700,000 new jobs in Florida.”
You really expect the average voter to go look up someones 50 point plan on something if it’s not even mentioned in the commercial?
It never fails to amaze me how trying to help the morons with the R becomes some Kafkaesque nightmare.
Do you not WANT to win? Is it some kind of personal martyrdom thing?
What we need is another “you didn’t build that”
Want to see a poll breakdown?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/09/11/National-Politics/Polling/release_126.xml
Scroll to the bottom to see the precious few 23% Republicans vs 33% Democrats to arrive at O:49%, R:48%.
Folks, put off your heart attack, you don’t need it.
The question is, why? Are we finally seeing the chickens of the broken school system and the infiltration of liberals into every nook and cranny of the university system coming home to roost? What do they think has happened over the last 4 years that they would like more of?
ummm…more queers in the military? Did I win?
Lets face it, this election is about how much we have changed as a country in the last 50 years.
Basically we have Ward Cleaver running against Malcolm X, and if the election year was 1960 you would have Ward up by 80 points, whereas in the year 2012 it is a virtual tie. Well done academia, well done urban snob media in making radical normal and normal radical.
Remember the bedwetting and hand wringing in the primaries. It was “make or break” for Romney in late Jan? Remember how the Romney camp just sat back, and then annihilated the opposition in about 2-3 weeks?
Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Except it’s seven months later. The same crowd that was down on R in Jan is coming out of the woodwork in September. Even the criticisms are the same.
The election fundamentals have not changed. Repeat–the fundamentals have not changed. Sorry, but Obama is no FDR, and regardless of what anyone says, Romney is not Alf Landon. He has a group of very capable, very vicious (if needed) attack dogs working for him who are used to working in the liberal paradise of Boston. They get it.
Obama’s (and Clinton’s) defenses for the past three years are weak–very weak. All it takes is simply quoting Obama and Geithner from 2009.
Don’t forget FDR’s stimulus actually created jobs, built roads, built the TVA, etc. Obama’s stimulus rewarded his billionaire cronies and killed jobs at places like Solyndra, First Solar, SunPower,…
And the FDR economy only “turned around” after we ramped up industrial productions to fight Hitler and sent our young to die in far off lands. Do we want a FDR II?
Funny, the most brilliant shape shifting, I mean transformative, president cannot run on his own records but tries his damnest to bask in the reflected glory of those dead white guys who did not look like him.
Be careful what you read on these sites from here out.
The inside spin machines have posters (many are volunteers) assigned to battle the conservative viewpoints. Right after the election, they’ll disappear and show again in the next cycle.
Don’t argue with them. Ignore them.
Use these forums to spread truthful information that is difficult to get out there otherwise. Battling the spin machines is like trying to heat the whole outdoors.
There might be a few good polls out that show Obama got a bounce, but it is simply wrong to claim that polls aren’t being used to depress the Republican base. Nate Silver, who used to do predictions on sports, is seen as some sort of guru on the left and right. He is in fact mentioned in this article.
He puts out one story after another regarding how much of a sure thing Obama is. Looking back at the 2010 midterms however, he only gave Republicans a 1 in 3 shot of picking up over 60 seats in the house. He was dead wrong. The entire media universe just “knew” Scott Walker more than likely going to be recalled. That wasn’t close either.
The fly in the ointment is the partisan breakdowns. There are many polls put out that over-sample Democrats. The one showing a 5 point lead for Obama in Ohio is based on him getting a better Democrat turnout than he did in 2008. There is no way that is going to happen. Bottom line, there is plenty of reasons to blame the messenger in this election.
We all need to work hard to get out the vote, it is better to assume you are down. But we shouldn’t be criticizing each other for pointing out the obvious bias and questionable methodology of some pollsters.
Romney is actually leading by at least 3-5%:
Examining the 11 September Washington Post/ABC Poll
Obama was elected by only 30% of registered voters. There was a turnout of 58% and of that group 52% voted for him. 52% of 58% is 30%. We can easily beat obama by having a good turnout. He has not gained followers.