Does Obama Have the Votes for Health Care Reform?
Last Thursday, Barack Obama tried to convince the members of the IOC that Chicago deserved the 2016 Olympics. He failed miserably, as Chicago was eliminated on the first ballot, a humiliating defeat for Obama personally and the United States. So much for the new love of America overseas.
Now the president is back to home turf, where the numbers in the Senate and the House continue to favor passage of the president’s key domestic priority this year: a health care reform bill. The key numbers are these: the Democrats have a near 80-vote margin in the House and a 60-40 hold on the Senate, including the two independents who tend to vote with the Democrats. The attainment of the filibuster-proof majority in the Senate owes to the circus act just performed in Massachusetts, where the legislature and the governor agreed to change the law for the second time in five years on how to fill a Senate vacancy.
Paul Kirk, the new senator for four months, provides the 6oth Democratic vote during the period when a health care form bill is expected to be considered in the Senate. At this point the Democrats do not need a single Republican in either body of Congress to pass the health care reform bill. So what could go wrong for the administration?
My own assessment of how the bill progresses through Congress goes like this:
In the House, three committees have already approved a bill that includes a public insurance option, which would create a new federal program that would compete with private insurers for the business of individuals and small businesses. Each bill is priced at more than $1 trillion over 10 years and relies on higher taxes on the wealthy to finance a substantial part of the price tag.
The bill that will come out of the House will look just like the bills from the three committees and is troubling for the 52 Blue Dogs and other Democrats in vulnerable seats (84 members hold seats in districts won by either Bush or McCain in 2004 and 2008). Much as with the House cap-and-trade bill, when over 40 Democrats voted no, my guess is that close to 40 Democrats will vote no on the House bill, enabling them to say to constituents that they opposed the public option and higher taxes. But the bill will pass the House narrowly.
There are many medical health care centers in America and they are in operation in order to provide medication, therapy, counseling and relief to people suffering from various diseases. These centers work to lessen the load that hospitals face. They run under different names and some of them specialize in certain fields.
There is a third factor to consider.
Obama and this Congress have made a complete mess of our economy, destroyed our established foreign policies; including our National Defense allies and made the United States of America the least feared, least respected laughing stock of the world.
Regardless of the results in Virginia and New Jersey, if any measure of Obama’s healthcare reform is forced on our nation that “weak public support” herein mentioned WILL turn into public political fury and rage like Washington, DC has never before witnessed.
Have at it Congress! Ignore the voters!
There are many possibilities here, especially given the divergence of the House and Senate bills and the anger of the electorate.
If the key is simply to get sufficient votes in both houses of Congress, then a spate of quiet logrolling is likely to produce the Democrats’ desired result, as Mr. Baehr has outlined. No one on the left side of the aisle will be completely happy, but everyone will get some of what he wants (except, possibly, the Republican caucuses).
If the key is to mollify the roused and energized electorate, then extra fan-dancing must be done to persuade voters (in sufficient numbers) that their existing arrangements won’t be disturbed, and that no special taxes will be levied to defray the costs of government involvement in health care.
If both are required — that is, if Congressional Democrats won’t get off the can until they’re reasonably certain that their jobs won’t be jeopardized by a federal health care takeover — the bill might fail despite all wheeling and dealing. Much will depend on how the Congressional races poll over the next two months. Obama himself, as determined as he appears to be on this subject, would recoil from the specter of losing either of his Congressional majorities. He doesn’t want to be hobbled as the 1994 elections hobbled Bill Clinton.
I continue to feel that the key for conservatives is identifying the health-care takeover with Obama personally. We’ve made progress at destroying the Obama mystique; albatrossing him with the health-care bill, and albatrossing it with him, would be a tactically sound stroke.
Politicians care most about one thing: preserving their jobs.
Sure, but they don’t necessarily have to be in office to have jobs. I’m sure many of the people on the fence are being promised all sorts of sweet deals in the event that voting in favor of the bill kills their re-election bids. I’m sure this kind of “quid pro quo” is illegal, but hey, that’s how Obama and Co. roll.
“Never has such a major piece of legislation passed with no support from the minority party….”
The GOP’s lack of support has less to do with the legislation than it does with bringing Obama to his “Waterloo” — a much more important consideration for the right than the health care needs of millions of Americans.
I think congress has got the message. Passage of Obamacare in any form is going to be political suicide in all but the most blue of the Blue states.
A huge percentage of the American voting public is rapidly reaching a; “Throw All The Bums Out”, point with respect to their representatives. A general house cleaning is fully justified (IMHO) as government has seemingly forgotten who they work for. American is growing weary of the corruption and back room deals which reward cronyism and gives a pass to tax-cheats and crooks in Washington.
Watch Glen Beck for the details.
Never forget how bills can have huge things inserted nor the deviousness of the Democrats who play the game as a blood sport. This is a good scenario but expect there to be something in the final bill that grants some sort of “oversight” or delegates some type of mandate to a new or existing Federal agency. This agency will simply make a rule dictating the public option. After, of course, a small window of public comment. Congress has long ago given up many of it’s powers to such agencies (think OSHA and EPA).
Anything, and I mean anything, that passes will be done so no one will really be able to unravel how the public option will be put in place. To avoid the public option, the bills, simply, must not ever get to committee. If they do, kiss more of your freedoms goodbye.
Rick Baehr — Thanks for outlining plausible detailed scenarios for where the healthcare bill goes from here.
Commenters — I’d be curious to hear substantive objections to RB’s claims, if any.
A key adjective that should be included in your descriptor is “massive”, as in massive health care reform. Using the phrase “comprehensive” makes congress look like they know what they are doing when in effect they are slicing pork, crippling the medical profession, increasing the bureaucracy, and promising health when they mean insurance all the while spending our money to make our lives better.
The votes come from the blue dogs who are willing to sacrifice themselves to appease their president. What makes this spend-arama more exciting is that they also need to formulate next year’s budget and stare down a $12 trillion deficit. Tax increases follow broken promises. Apparently waste and fraud are voted into the system by omission.
most Americans want health care reform, to say they don’t is contemptuous of your readership for it arms them with false information about the world, the same thing happened on many a republican site during the election season, where republicans told themselves the same false information over and over.
The other thing that could derail the scenario- getting a moderate Democrat to vote to sustain a filibuster on the grounds of insufficient time to read and understand the bill. This, or an amendment to the rules compelling such a delay, could buy us at least two weeks. If that happens, there’s no way a reconciled bill can be passed before adjournment, and the bill will be placed on hold until at least January, by which time Congress will be even more hard pressed to reject this than they were in August.
#10 Cedarhill
You said it better than I could.
As they say, “the Devil is in the details” and you just know that somewhere in the details of the bill, there will be “options” that will make any plan that the Dems propose a disaster.
Remember the Porkulus bill……..
I would not trust any future bills that this administration proposes.
The short answer is: yes. Obama has the votes for health care reform, and some sort of comprehensive bill will pass this session. This bill will include some form of a public option, watered-down or not, and will also eliminate many insurance industry practices that kill Americans every day.
The GOP does not have the votes to stop this bill, and have made it clear that they are not willing to compromise or work together to craft this legislation. This is a major miscalculation by the Republican caucus. Health reform will pass, and Obama and the Democrats will get all of the credit – and extra kudos for standing up to the obstructionists.
Pretending that the American people are satisfied with the most expensive, dysfunctional health care system in the developed world is not doing the GOP any favors. After trying to gut social security, it is hilarious to see the right wingers pretending to defend Medicare. Health care reform is good for Medicare, because it will let the government take on patients who are not yet heavy health care consumers, which will help balance the rising costs for older patients.
We have never been closer to comprehensive health care reform – and it will happen before the end of this year. It has the support of the majority in Congress as well as the majority of Americans. The fact that the GOP is not on board is just more evidence that the right is out of touch with voters.
Peace.
DS
myth buster:
“The other thing that could derail the scenario- getting a moderate Democrat to vote to sustain a filibuster on the grounds of insufficient time to read and understand the bill.”
And you sir, are promoting a myth. Just who do you think writes the bills? The bills are understood and it’s nothing but wingnut noise to suggest otherwise.
Now kindly get out of the way. We’ve got serious business happening and you add nothing to the debate.
18. jharp: Buddy! Welcome back! Say, did you know that your messiah got his start turning tricks for a slumlord? Yes, it’s true, he serviced the slumlord, got in bed with him and got his knees dirty at the expense of his constituents…oh yes, and the taxpayers.
I am in absolute agreement with David S. All the evidence I have found that agrees with my preconceptions indicates that the majority of Americans support socializing health care and are convinced that the sun shines out of Obama’s a$$.
BTW: This is as asinine as it gets
“Health care reform is good for Medicare, because it will let the government take on patients who are not yet heavy health care consumers, which will help balance the rising costs for older patients.”
Think about that statement a bit and you realize that David S has never held a job that wasn’t subsidized.
Pretending that the American people are satisfied with the most expensive, dysfunctional health care system in the developed world is not doing the GOP any favors.
No need to “pretend”.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/123149/Cost-Is-Foremost-Healthcare-Issue-for-Americans.aspx
Think about that statement a bit and you realize that David S has never held a job that wasn’t subsidized.
David S is a subsidized parasite. Period.
He couldn’t possibly hide his Leftism long enough to get through the interview process at a private company. Even for a job as fry cook in a fast food joint, he’d say something asinine like “Hey, do you know that those oils are saturated fats and contain animal byproducts from cows fed on grass grown in parts of the rain forest that were cut down by corporate interests?” and the manager would tell him to hit the pavement.
Davis S + jharp + vivo = the Obama flufferboy tagteam.
“Health care reform is good for Medicare, because it will let the government take on patients who are not yet heavy health care consumers, which will help balance the rising costs for older patients.”
Think about that statement a bit and you realize that David S has never held a job that wasn’t subsidized.
Posted by: Commuter Oct 5, 2009 – 10:05 am
You have no idea whether reform would be good for Medicare or not.
You pretend to know what you’re talking and can’t even grasp the fact that Obama cut taxes for 95% of us. Somehow you figured that a tax credit doesn’t lower ones taxes.
Get an education son. You’ve voting against your own best interest and are too ignorant to realize it.
Commuter.
Last post was mine.
“Health care reform is good for Medicare, because it will let the government take on patients who are not yet heavy health care consumers, which will help balance the rising costs for older patients.”
Think about that statement a bit and you realize that David S has never held a job that wasn’t subsidized.
Posted by: Commuter Oct 5, 2009 – 10:05 am
You have no idea whether reform would be good for Medicare or not.
You pretend to know what you’re talking and can’t even grasp the fact that Obama cut taxes for 95% of us. Somehow you figured that a tax credit doesn’t lower ones taxes.
Get an education son. You’ve voting against your own best interest and are too ignorant to realize it.
@21. venividivici:
Pretending that the American people are satisfied with the most expensive, dysfunctional health care system in the developed world is not doing the GOP any favors.
No need to “pretend”.
Then why do you persist with this fantasy? People are clearly worried about the rising cost of health care, the growing millions of uninsured, and lack of access to health care. The GOP is not offering meaningful solutions to any of the concerns that Americans have about health care.
Cost is the biggest concern, and if you look at the numbers, it is the folks using the public option known as Medicare who are most satisfied overall with the cost and quality of their care.
Public health care is better – that’s why the American people want it.
Peace.
DS
No one, and I mean no one is opposed to reform. We all know there are many problems with the current system that need to be fixed. What we disagree on is the definition of reform. The Democrats want to pursue a socialist version of “reform” that takes power, and money from consumers and transfers it to government. This overwhelmingly opposed by a majority of Americans. The passion index indicates that those opposed are far more passionate than those that support this takeover.
The Conservative approach is a free-market approach that frees people from government and enables people to retain their own money and their freedom to choose.
For Democrats this is not not nor has it ever been about solving problems. It’s about power and control. It has been a Progressive wet dream for generations to take over health care as a means of controlling us.
Think taxes on sugared sodas is over the top? Just wait until everything in your life can be controlled because it affects your health and therefore the federal budget. Riding a motorcycle without a helmet? Not anymore. Riding a bicycle without a helmet? Not anymore.
I can even envision a scenario where the EPA regulates greenhouse gases because “global warming” affect health. Or regulates auto emissions because particulates are inhaled.
The sky is the limit.
Nationalized health care puts us on the glide path to tyranny.
Somehow you figured that a tax credit doesn’t lower ones taxes.
For most people, it wasn’t a cut, it was a straight-up cash giveaway:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122385651698727257.html
Then, there are the people who do actually pay tax who will have to pay back the “tax credit” come tax time.
http://boortz.com/nealz_nuze/2009/05/the-truth-about-obamas-tax-cre.html
Are you enjoying your whopping $10 a week from Obama’s “Making Work Pay” tax credit? Well enjoy it while you can, because the government is more than likely going to re-seize it in the long run. This is because new IRS withholding tables could cause millions of taxpayers to receive more money than they are “entitled” to under the credit. For some, this will mean a smaller-than-expected tax refund. For others who calculate their withholding differently, you could end up owing the government, come next April.
Last post was mine.
As if the blinding stupidity of it wasn’t hint enough.
venividivici:
“For most people, it wasn’t a cut, it was a straight-up cash giveaway:”
Nonsense. It was a tax credit.
“Then, there are the people who do actually pay tax who will have to pay back the “tax credit” come tax time.”
More nonsense. Just flat out false. No one has to pay it back, dopey.
“Obama Has Cut Taxes for 98.6 Percent of Working* Households”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/obama-has-cut-taxes-for-986-percent-of.html
Then why do you persist with this fantasy? People are clearly worried about the rising cost of health care, the growing millions of uninsured, and lack of access to health care. The GOP is not offering meaningful solutions to any of the concerns that Americans have about health care.
Bennett-Wyden is actually much better than what’s currently on offer, from what I’ve read of it.
Plus, you can shout from the rooftops about “cost”, but the fact is that more important than just “cost” is “what drives costs?” See, that’s one of the things they teach you in business school that just doesn’t matter when you’re in the non-profit world.
“About half of all growth in health care spending in the past several decades was associated with changes in medical care made possible by advances in technology,” declared a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report last year.
http://reason.com/archives/2009/09/29/does-high-tech-medicine-mean-h
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8947/01-31-TechHealth.pdf
Want to slow the rate of cost growth by 50%? Simple. Just do away with all technology advances! It just means you have to make do with “last year’s” treatments and decreased increases in life expectancy!
Let me guess: you do not make your living from your analytical capabilities, right? You must make your living telling “just so” stories to naive people with more money than brains to fund your non-profit’s “mission”.
venividivici:
Just read your Boortz link. Seriously, you can’t be that ignorant, can you?
Did you actually read the link? Unbelievable ignorance of the the most basic tax issue.
Listen closely. It was a $400 TAX CREDIT for individuals and $800 for couples.
Subtracted directly from the tax your owe. It’s just that simple.
venividivici:
Then why is everyone else spending 1/2 of what we spend while doing just as much innovation as us, and providing the same level of care?
“Although attacking the Canadian and European health care systems is a common tactic for conservatives, the fact remains that these countries have been leading health care innovators time and time again.
Canada brought the world insulin, developed bone marrow transplantation, and conducts more lung transplant surgeries than the United States. Meanwhile, of the twenty most profitable pharmaceutical manufacturers, only nine are from the United States — the rest are from western Europe, Japan, and Israel, all of which have universal health care systems that Corker so is opposed to.”
My guess is that Obama has the votes, but in order to get that token republican and a couple of the blue dogs on board he will do what he has been hinting at. He will drop the public option. Thats the albatross. However, in my opinion, if he does that, he will alienate a big chunk on the left of his party. I think he is wrong to do that. The reason, I think the right will still be against him, no matter what he does so I would not even bother with them anymore. But that is me. However, he thinks he is right… and he gets all the votes. That Baucus should have never been a point man in this in the first place, he is as much a democrat as chuck hagle and jim jeffords were republicans……thats where this administration went wrong, in the first place. And I agree, this bill needs a shot of Tort reform as well, the conservatives have a good point there. So, Will health reform pass? yes, but will it be real reform? notice the word care is missing?…..
18. If it is so well understood, then please kindly post a full summery of the entire Senate bill by this time tomorrow, explaining how each section of the bill works. You won’t be able to, because not even a Senator, working with his/her entire staff could accomplish that task, yet you want them to vote without understanding what it is they are voting on. You try reading 1000 pages of legaleze in a few hours and see how far you get. Even experienced lawyers can’t do it and still understand what they read.
I don’t get it. Why are these supposedly smart men and women prepared to commit political suicide to enact a wildly unpopular bill that will only look worse and worse every day? Am I not understanding the money trail? Has anyone done a good foillow the mon ey analysis?
Just read your Boortz link. Seriously, you can’t be that ignorant, can you?
Did you actually read the link? Unbelievable ignorance of the the most basic tax issue.
Listen closely. It was a $400 TAX CREDIT for individuals and $800 for couples.
Subtracted directly from the tax your owe. It’s just that simple.
No, you listen closely. According to the link, based on the new witholding schedules, people may end up getting smaller refunds than they would have otherwise or end up needing to repay some of the tax they didn’t pay during the year.
Net-net it may be a $400 tax credit for individuals and $800 for couples, but for many people getting to that net-net will be more convoluted than necessary thanks to piss-poor planning. Want to talk ignorance about basic tax principles? Seems like you can find it in abundance in DC.
Meanwhile, of the twenty most profitable pharmaceutical manufacturers, only nine are from the United States — the rest are from western Europe, Japan, and Israel, all of which have universal health care systems that Corker so is opposed to.”
So we’ve only got 45% of the top 20 most profitable companies in a group of countries where, in aggregate, we’ve got, what, 33% of the total population? Yeah, sounds like a ringing endorsement of universal health care.
And what’s the measure of profitability they use? Total dollars? If the companies in question are monopolies or near-monopolies in the country in question, their volumes alone would make them enormous profits even on slim margins. Return on Equity is the relevant measure for something of that nature. Even there, one would have to be cognizant of the impact of near-monopolistic power in their respective markets.
myth buster:
18. If it is so well understood, then please kindly post a full summery of the entire Senate bill by this time tomorrow, explaining how each section of the bill works. You won’t be able to, because not even a Senator, working with his/her entire staff could accomplish that task, yet you want them to vote without understanding what it is they are voting on. You try reading 1000 pages of legaleze in a few hours and see how far you get. Even experienced lawyers can’t do it and still understand what they read.
______________________________________________________________
You haven’t a clue as to how our legislative process works. No clue at all. Turn off Glenn Beck and go enroll in a civics class.
Our rogue congress ignores the will of the people at their own peril. At the end of the day WE are still running the show . If they pass this monstrosity then the town hall meetings and the DC protest will look like play time. I think they know this too. Almost everyone of them who votes yeah on this will be shown the door in 2010. How much clearer can the people make this issue. WE don’t want what it is they are serving up
aloysiusmiller:
“I don’t get it. Why are these supposedly smart men and women prepared to commit political suicide to enact a wildly unpopular bill that will only look worse and worse every day?”
You are right. You don’t “get it”. The public option is very popular.
A Sept. 25th New Times/CBS poll asked:
Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government-administered health insurance plan — something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get — that would compete with private insurance plans? The poll question was phrased generally so that it could be asked in repeated surveys over time regardless of any specific legislative proposal.
With the question asked that way, most respondents supported the idea, with 65 percent in favor, 26 percent opposed and 9 percent offering no position.
noreen:
Our rogue congress ignores the will of the people at their own peril. At the end of the day WE are still running the show . If they pass this monstrosity then the town hall meetings and the DC protest will look like play time. I think they know this too. Almost everyone of them who votes yeah on this will be shown the door in 2010. How much clearer can the people make this issue. WE don’t want what it is they are serving up
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Excuse me? 65% support the public option.
If by “we” you are referring to we teabaggers you are right. Yet the “we” you refer to includes only a fringe element of the 20% of Americans who call themselves republicans.
And I’d be curious how you’d follow up the teabagging protests. I don’t see how you could look any more ridiculous but I’ll bet you could give it one heck of a try.
This left-wing extremist Trojan horse will be a disaster if it passes. It will either massively add to the deficit and will lower the quality of healthcare for most in the short run and eventually for all. The idea that health-care is better when run by the government is a lie and believed only by fools and lemmings. Until we cut off the spigot to the trial lawyers and move to a system where insurance is for catastrophic care and people pay for their own basic healthcare, we will continue to see health care costs rise. It is basic economics. The only means government has to control these costs is to ration – and this will leave us at the mercy of government bureaucrats to decide who gets treated.
We need to be rid of the crypto-Marxists running the federal government before it is too late.
@32. venividivici:
Bennett-Wyden is actually much better than what’s currently on offer, from what I’ve read of it.
That’s Wyden-Bennett to you.
When it comes to what’s currently on offer, there are a handful of plans that will need to be reconciled – it is still too early to declare Wyden’s bill superior or inferior, but being a supporter of Wyden since his Senate career began, I have taken a good look at his bill. It’s not perfect, but it sure is better than anything the GOP has been offering. I still think it would be a better bill if a true public option were included.
Plus, you can shout from the rooftops about “cost”, but the fact is that more important than just “cost” is “what drives costs?” See, that’s one of the things they teach you in business school that just doesn’t matter when you’re in the non-profit world.
Costs still matter in the non-profit world. But you accidentally identified the other major driver of cost – profit. That’s what makes our health care so damn expensive compared to the rest of the world. We can still have all the high tech medicine we have now at half the cost. Most developed countries already do. That’s why a public option is so important.
If you spent half as much time looking at the evidence as you do denigrating me, you might learn something here. My analytical abilities are well established, and you have already conceded my main point to be correct. Yes, people support a public option.
Peace.
DS
Oooh, myth buster, jharp said you listen to Glenn Beck. What’s so bad about that?
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/10/01/quote-of-the-day-566/
Yet Beck’s distinctiveness and his potential contribution to conservatism can be summed up with one name: R.J. Pestritto.
Pestritto is a young political scientist at Hillsdale College in Michigan whom Beck has had on his TV show several times, once for the entire hour discussing Woodrow Wilson and progressivism. He is among a handful of young conservative scholars, several of whom Beck has also featured, engaged in serious academic work critiquing the intellectual pedigree of modern liberalism. Their writing is often dense and difficult, but Beck not only reads it, he assigns it to his staff. ‘Beck asks me questions about Hegel, based on what he’s read in my books,’ Pestritto told me.
Hey, jharp, do you even f*cking know who Hegel is, much less have the capacity to ask educated questions about his philosophical Weltanschauung, you half-educated twit?
Poor Citizen, if President Obama had the votes it would be law NOW; however, since April, he continues to blather on about health-care without using a specific bill. Health-care is Obama’s kryptonite & it is slowly killing him with each exposure as his poll ratings sink back to Earth. We the people unequivocally reject ObamaCare.
I think ObamaCare will remain in legislation limbo for quite some time without more deception from the Democrats. Resistance to ObamaCare is growing each day while Obama shrinks against the echo of his vain, hollow voice.
Any politician who votes for ObamaCare, in any form, is toast.
@jharp
I can see why you would think the gift the administration is a credit, why, because they said it was. It’s not worth arguing semantics with you. Essentially though, didn’t Bush do the same thing with his gifts? Were you singing his praises when you received those checks?
Here’s another thing. For a family of three making $60,000/year and taking only standard deductions, the $800 gift represents about a third of their tax liability. Now, if someone like myself received a 1% gift, you all would cry because it is more than the $800. Hell, even eliminate the AMT I have to pay every year because my deductions aren’t as good as others.
But rather than make an effort to get money into the hands of those of us that actually create jobs, here is what’s in store for myself and many like me.
increase in income tax rate = 4%
removal of fica cap = 6.2%
health care sur-tax = 5%
total percentage increase = 15.2%
Thus, before I even begin to pay property taxes, sales taxes, taxes included in my utility bills, etc, over 58% of my income will have already been taken away from me. This doesn’t even take into consideration the taxes paid at the company level.
So, once the “California Experiment” has been taken nationwide and the tax base has been eroded (because if you think those which produce things will refuse to live in a socialist society you are wrong), and you have nobody left to pay taxes and produce jobs, what are you going to do?
The likelihood and great danger is that the proposed bills will be scaled back or modified enough so that they can pass, but will only move us incrementally toward the same result – socialized medicine. They may omit the public option, or healthcare rationing, or compulsory insurance as far as the explicit language of the bill is concerned. But even without those measures, they will move us toward the same results.
All of the bills leave a great deal of discretion to very powerful bureaucrats, who do not answer to the voters, allowing them to implement the very measures that can’t pass explicitly in the bill, and bypassing the democratic process. Obama controls those bureaucrats. And if this bill falls short of their goals, there will be another bill, and another after that, eventually accomplishing their goals.
Therefore, we must stop this bill in any form. And the only way to do that is to make it clear to our representatives that WE WILL VOTE OUT OF OFFICE THOSE WHO SUPPORT IT! There is a website called http://www.PledgeOfLiberty.com where you can pledge to vote against politicans supporting the bill. They will let representatives know how many votes they are losing. It is also essential to write individually to our representatives.
Spread the word before it is too late!
@46. venividivici:
Yep, Beck is not sharp enough to read Hegel himself, so he gets the cliff-notes version from his GOP buddies. I’m not impressed. Hegel is freshman level for serious philosophers, and well critiqued by his contemporaries.
When will the GOP faithful join the rest of us in the 21st century?
Pestritto himself is a political activist – hardly a neutral scholar, or even a very serious one.
Peace.
DS
But you accidentally identified the other major driver of cost – profit.
Profits and the profit incentive are as likely to drive down costs as they are to raise them, since you can gain a heck of a lot of market share by offering the same thing someone else is offering, but for a lower price. There is some potential basis for arguing that patent and the temporary monopoly pricing power they provide raises costs, but getting rid of patents would undermine the incentives for innovation. We as a society have decided that innovation is important enough that innovators get rewarded. I know that for people on the Left, whose sole contribution to innovation was “Rules for Radicals”, that’s a tough pill to swallow, since it means more wealth for people who actually innovate in areas where people want it.
If you spent half as much time looking at the evidence as you do denigrating me
I could spend 10 times as much time as I do denigrating you and it would be only half the denigration you deserve.
you have already conceded my main point to be correct.
No, I said that the way a public option was presented in that question, it is nearly impossible that a majority of people would not favor it. If that survey question was used in the private sector to justify building a product that wasn’t essentially given away for free, the product would fail. We used to have a saying at one of the consulting firms where I worked, “Never recommend ‘motherhood and apple pie’ to the client”, meaning, don’t go in to a client and give them options that don’t require tough decisions to be made, because not making tough decisions is the exact reason why they needed outside help. That version of the “public option” is “motherhood and apple pie”. The conjoint analysis survey I cited, where some actual cost is attached to the public option, is much more meaningful.
Hey Biblio44, every American is now guaranteed health care. Further, low income people can avail themselves of a large number of health industry subsidies to defray or eliminate cost.
If you can’t tell the truth, be quiet!
i’ve studied the health care issue to death. imo it will add significantly to the deficit of the country if a public option is added.
a recent book (bernholz)documented that the tipping point for hyperinflation is when a country monetizes roughly 40% of its gdp. the usa (from omb) is at 43% for 2009 and projected for 40% for fiscal 2010.
draw your own conclusions as to what this means for you personally with leftists in control of the country.
as for me, i’ve been converting as fast as possible cash to hard assets such as silver and gold.
so if the leftists get their way i’m banking on the law of unintended consequences to slap – no slug – them in the face.
meanwhile, every time i hear a hare brained plan concocted by a leftist my first reaction is this: if it passes how can i make money off their stupidity.
Some questions for the ideologues:
1. Since Blue Cross, Blue Shield, Kaiser, Group Health and many others are non profit insurance options why have they not driven the for profits out of business?
2. If Medicare and Medicaid are “well run government health programs why do they have trillions of dollars of unfunded liabilities?
3. How do you like the fact Reid struck a deal to have the federal government (all taxpayers) cover 100% of Nevada’s increased Medicaid costs over the next five years and the same provision was inserted for Michigan, Oregon and Rhode?
Further observations:
A majority of the American people oppose the current plans. But vast majority also want a solution for the 8-10 million people that cannot get or afford healthcare insurance, we just don’t want to destroy our own healthcare options to achieve the goal.
I have spent the last two days going over the Baucus bill. It is an invitation to disaster. All the things that today contribute to excessive healthcare costs are codified and magnified and most of the things that could reduce healthcare costs are excluded. Deal with pre-existing conditions and provide subsidies for those who lack to resources to purchase healthcare, but also unshackle insurance companies, let them sell insurance nationwide, let people determine the amount of healthcare insurance they want, and enact real tort reform
“Public health care is better – that’s why the American people want it.”
Hey dunce, then why do all legitimate polls show otherwise, that Americans DO NOT want it???? What’s the point of making up lies? Kind of blows your credibility.
When will the GOP faithful join the rest of us in the 21st century?
Oh, please. Name one Leftist idea that doesn’t ultimately emanate from Hegel. He’s the archetypal modern-day collectivist. Even Marx could merely “stand Hegel on his head”. The only other potential source of ideas on the Left is Fichte, the progenitor of the idea that ethnicity equals identity, so beloved of the Jeremiah Wrights of the world. Those ideas haven’t stopped influencing Leftists just because a few pages have been ripped from the calendar. The Left loves to pretend they’re most influenced by the French, but it’s clear to anyone who knows the history of philosophy that it’s the Germans who’ve influenced the Left the most. Even the French influences on the Left were more influenced by the Germans than by their French confreres.
venivedivici:
“Want to slow the rate of cost growth by 50%? Simple. Just do away with all technology advances! It just means you have to make do with ‘last year’s’ treatments and decreased increases in life expectancy!”
By your very admission my father (56 years old) would not have the opportunity to use a newly-approved cancer treatment because the previous treatment failed. How liberal of you to say that my father’s well-being isn’t important enough.
I may not be happy with the way health care is treated but exactly how many advances are done outside of the US? Where did my daughter medicine for her asthma come from? What about my mother’s heart medication? Without which, mind you, she would have been dead when I was nine years old (and again at 16 and yet again at 21) if it wasn’t for all the technological advances.
Don’t you dare lecture to me that Obama’s plan is better than what we have. If anything, we need to be prepared for a lot of death because the latest greatest treatments won’t be available anymore. And it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the same party that scream “abortion rights!” would also do this. After all, quality of life is what’s important here.
This is why the left makes me want to vomit. Well, until Obamacare gets enacted. Then I’ll be too afraid to vomit.
Pestritto himself is a political activist – hardly a neutral scholar, or even a very serious one.
Maybe if he started rapping, like that well-known serious scholar, Cornell West, he’d get some respect from you.
@54. Terry:
1. There is more to reform than eliminating profit. Non-profit insurers deny coverage, restrict pre-existing conditions, and use recision. Non-profits can solve only part of the problem. But thanks for pointing to solid evidence that a public option is not a threat to private insurance companies. If non-profits can’t drive them out of business, it is doubtful that the government will do so.
2. Medicare and Medicaid have been chronically underfunded, but they are incredibly effective health programs. They provide high quality care for less cost than private plans. Health reform can ensure that they continue to do so, and put in place the funding mechanisms to make these programs solvent indefinitely.
3. I like this deal. I live in Oregon, and I think that we could use the help, given the unemployment situation here. Michigan likewise could use the help. Bring it on.
I agree with you that the Baucus bill is very flawed – but we diverge widely on the appropriate remedy. I look at health care systems around the world, and would like to see ours modeled on the most effective systems we can find. That means public health care. Private insurance is simply not the appropriate means to pay for health care – it is a waste of resources. Around the world, the most effective health care is universal, single payer coverage. I realize America is not there yet – but we can take a step in the right direction by passing comprehensive reform including a public option.
Peace.
DS
To DS: If you think our healthcare system is dysfuncional now, just wait, my friend, until the dems begin to dictate your healthcare to you. Look at Canada and Great Britain, look at Mass, Maine, and all the other states that have tried this. All disasters. Two questions for you: 1. If this bill is so great, why does it have in it a provision that it will not take effect until after the 2012 elections? Secondly, if it’s so great, why is Congress exempt? Surely they, too, would love such a grand healthcare scheme. Wake up, dummy, and see the truth! This is a nightmare of epic proportions being forced on us. The dems are saying ‘To hell with my constituents, I’m with Obama’, and we’ll be the ones that pay the exhorbitant price and receive the third-world level of care.
Good and interesting article, but it didn’t touch on the issue of who will pay.
The Baucus bill includes an “individual mandate” that requires everyone to buy health insurance.
Many blogs have been reporting for over a month now that Americans cannot be forced to pay for health insurance, and they aren’t in France, Germany or Israel, which are three countries that I happen to know about.
http://tinyurl.com/notlegal
In the last week, several lawyers that specialize in constitutional law have offered similar opinions.
The MSM that got Obama elected is needless to say, light years behind on this, but will catch up, eventually and might even ask questions.
The crux of the matter is that when you buy a car, you know that you’ll need to insure it, and when you buy a bike you know that you’ll need to wear a helmet, but the constitution states that you can’t be forced to buy something simply because you’re alive.
Michael
Terry:
“I have spent the last two days going over the Baucus bill. It is an invitation to disaster.”
On this we agree. And you can forget about the Baucus bill. It’s dead. And guess why? Yep, no public option.
The House bill is the one that’s to become the law. The one with the public option. And yes, we have the votes.
And 65% support us. How’s them apples?
57
By your very admission my father (56 years old) would not have the opportunity to use a newly-approved cancer treatment because the previous treatment failed. How liberal of you to say that my father’s well-being isn’t important enough.
Hey, bro, you misunderstand me. I don’t want that to happen at all. It’s these other numbskulls like David S and other trolls ranting about “costs” without considering “benefits” that are so concerned by it. I don’t care if costs go up faster than inflation every year, so long as it brings innovations to the table. I’m glad they discovered something that can help your dad. If they had something that would cure stupidity, I’d order up a heaping helping of it for our trolls here. I’d even pay for it out of my own pocket, since I’m such a nice guy.
Taxed to Death:
@jharp
here is what’s in store for myself and many like me.
increase in income tax rate = 4%
removal of fica cap = 6.2%
health care sur-tax = 5%
total percentage increase = 15.2%
______________________________________________________________
American’s are among the least taxed in the modern world. And your pretend taxes that you simply made up are complete and utter nonsense. You were joking? Right?
David S, the Baucus bill being “flawed” is an understatement; the Baucua Bill makes it a crime to be without ObamaCare & put in jail for up to a year & pay a $25,000.00 fine. This is not a “flaw,” but a gross injustice & unconstitutional. Baucus–who has his name on the bill–needs to lose his job in 2010. I think he will. This is only one “flaw” from the Baucus Bill.
I think voter sentiment will be the last factor considered. I can only hope that it will be most important factor because it seems to be the only thing that can defeat this bill. It seems we are between government by opinion polls and government by elected representatives. Since I oppose Obamacare, I am rooting for opinion polls, but I guess ours is a representative form of government.
No: 47 Sebastian Shaw
You could be correct, but I don’t think so. Obama, and congress, have gone too far on this one. And lest we forget, this congress dont want to face 2010 as “do nothing.” So I believe they will pass the reform(s) with some of the sharp fangs removed to protect everyone. Heck, if they throw in some tort reform, I can still envision more than a handful of Republicans biting hard and voting yes. Then … they will simply save some of the more painful (expensive parts) for another day. So I dont think the anti folks have succeeded somewhat, but you have to admit, this administration gave the insurance industrial complex a real run for their money, and money they have spent. Having dealt with big insurance companies, I for one, like watching them sweat a little.
Ed:
To DS: If you think our healthcare system is dysfuncional now, just wait, my friend, until the dems begin to dictate your healthcare to you. Look at Canada and Great Britain, look at Mass, Maine, and all the other states that have tried this.
_____________________________________________________________
And while you’re at it look at France, Switzerland, Germany, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Greece, Japan, Netherlands….
All use some sort of public plan/single payer and all of them deliver the same level of care as us, for about 1/2 of the cost. And cover everyone. And no one goes broke due to getting sick.
And Canada’s system is far superior to ours.
TO: All
RE: If He Does….
….we may ALL be ‘screwed’.
I say this after reading parts of Senate Bill 1697, the Senate version of this abomination, and seeing in it—so far—nothing better than I saw in HB 3200.
In the first place it says….
….all Americans should have the same kinds of meaningful choices of health benefit plans that Members of Congress, as Federal employees, enjoy through the Federal employees health benefits program.
I have YET to read in this 800+ page monstrosity where it says ANYTHING about how all Americans WILL HAVE the sort of medical insurance coverage that those people covered by the federal program enjoy.
Indeed, what additional I’ve read since then seems to indicate that “all Americans” will NOT have that same coverage.
If someone has read otherwise, I’d appreciate it if they would point it out to me.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. -- Thomas Jefferson]
We are # 37! And spend twice as much per person as the rest of the world. 37th and spending double, and people going without coverage and going broke over getting sick, a national disgrace.
The World Health Organization’s ranking
of the world’s health systems.
1 France
2 Italy
3 San Marino
4 Andorra
5 Malta
6 Singapore
7 Spain
8 Oman
9 Austria
10 Japan
11 Norway
12 Portugal
13 Monaco
14 Greece
15 Iceland
16 Luxembourg
17 Netherlands
18 United Kingdom
19 Ireland
20 Switzerland
21 Belgium
22 Colombia
23 Sweden
24 Cyprus
25 Germany
26 Saudi Arabia
27 United Arab Emirates
28 Israel
29 Morocco
30 Canada
31 Finland
32 Australia
33 Chile
34 Denmark
35 Dominica
36 Costa Rica
37 United States of America
Arkansas is pro-public option. That’s right, Arkansas.
Research 2000. 9/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4%
Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?
Favor Oppose Not Sure
All 55 38 7
Dem 81 14 5
Rep 22 71 7
Ind 56 34 10
Don’t want to get into a big back and forth but your comments lead me to believe you are a committed ideologue, which is ok so long as you (or I) operate with real world facts.
I think you are saying we need a subsidized government system to drive the insurance companies out of business. I know maybe 15-20% of the population would agree with you. However, having run a medical services provider I personally experienced what the Canadian system does to it citizens so I would be careful about what you wish for. You should also know they are now moving towards a “private option.”
That Medicare is cost effectiveness is a myth. Your side always references the 4% administrative cost number, but if Medicare used GAP accounting the real number would be 8-9%. I know that is still less than the 16-22% GAP number for insurance companies. The problem is when you look at the hard numbers Medicare spends about twice as much per covered life in administrative costs than an insurance company. How is this? Medicare spends between three and four time more in medical expenses per covered life than a typical insurance company pays. The fact they pay so much more is not in of itself bad because us old people use a lot of medical services. However, from an administrative efficiency perspective Medicare is a disaster. Always remember that 8 or 9% of $10,000 is a whole bunch more than 16-22% of $2,500 – $3,333 – even if you use the extremes of both ranges.
I must admit that I am disappointed in your “I got mine” comment about taxes to cover Medicaid costs in Oregon. How is it immoral to not give everyone healthcare but it is ok for me to pay your taxes for giving everyone healthcare? I will let you figure out how that fits into your suitcase of moral values.
JHARP and all that laugh at him: I can’t wait to go get chemotherapy or neurosurgery in…Morocco. You actually posted that particular list. You really did. It really happened and it wasn’t some form of absurdist performance art. Buddy, you have broken the glass ceiling for what can actually be said out of stupidity, solipsism and beagle like desire to please your master.
For any other health insurance providers out there:
Now please name one insurance company that would grant non pre-existing conditions on someone that has terminal cancer?
Bladder Cancer
Melanoma
Breast Cancer
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma
Colon and Rectal Cancer Pancreatic Cancer
Endometrial Cancer
Prostate Cancer
Kidney (Renal Cell) Cancer
Leukemia
Thyroid Cancer
Lung Cancer?
It would never happen without the public option and it would cost you $3,000+ per month.
I am not against health care for the sick,
but quality health care would disappear along with 100 percent of private insurance companies.
Government run health care – the so-called “public option” – presents serious challenges for us. The private sector and competitive market forces are the best means to meeting health care needs. Watch this video from the U.S. Chamber http://www.friendsoftheuschamber.com/media/
Billslayer, you would be surprised, Marroc has surgeons trained in France or in America, and some of them created clinics where Europeans get operations, because of attractive prices, though I can’t affirm you that you could get neurosurgery, though most likely average operations for sure
One other follow up comment on #74-
You would not have to worry about Litigation-
Lawsuits.
No insurance companies left to sue and you can’t sue the government.
Ask any VA hospital.
-
-
-
-
-
-I guess all the private insurance companies will have to move to Morocco?
I think that even with these majorities in the House and Senate, no meaningful bill will come to pass. The general public says that they want health reform until they find out what these bills contain. Should these bills pass, expect huge voter backlash in 2010.
“And 65% support us. How’s them apples?”
Well of course Jharp. Those who would rob peter to pay paul can always count on the support of paul.
Good thing we have the adults running the govt now ready to implement policies the rest of us children are too ignorant to understand are in our own interests.
Gotta love the nanny state. They are here to help!
I cannot speculate what is in the helathcare bill.
It is troubling that the public is not “allowed” to read the bill before passing. Kerry said we (the people it effects) would not understand the arcane legal language, ha, yeah like they do..How do you understand something you have not read and do not know what it says.
If your elected officials vote for it, vote against them. What they are doing in Un American and needs to be challenged in one of the only ways we have. Love the rallies!!
I don’t blame the insurance companies. If the medical costs were not so outrageous, malpractice, the insurance premiums would not be so high. The insurance isn’t setting the cost of testing, visits, operations etc…the health care system is. BUT, Obama needs a scapegoat and his minions all pile on board without reason.
Insurance companies and pre-existing do not usually mesh…period There needs to be a law that congress has to abide by the things that they pass into law. Who is goin’ write that one???
My contention with the health care bill is why do people have to obey the law if Congress does not read it.
DIVORCE anyone? I say we take east of the Mississippi. I know, less land mass but NO border with Mexico. Watching libtards deal with that mess would be worth the sacrifice in acreage.
53. cllib: “so if the leftists get their way i’m banking on the law of unintended consequences to slap – no slug – them in the face.”
- LMAO, isn’t that the truth. So I assume that LEAD is one of those “hard assets” you are stocking up on.
76. Marie Claude:My point was rhetorical. And if there was neurosurgery available in morocco…would you go there to get it if you could get it here instead? A friend of mine is an oncologist in houston. His patients are almost exclusively cash paying patients from the middle east, south america, and europe…yes, europe.
82
I’m with you. I can’t stand the sight or sound or smell of these people. I look at a Leftist and I feel like Agent Smith in “The Matrix” felt toward humans.
I say we split it county by county based on Presidential election returns. Plus, we’d need a piece of the western coast for access to trade with Asia.
Billlayer, well, when we are arrived to the state of needing such a surgery, then no matter where you could get it, if Marocco had such opportunities, and if it was the only alternative, yes !
now, you get EUropeans into the states, depends on the specialities they are looking for, we also get Americans here for the same reasons
What? Did you write this while on the john? Try putting some thought into your work before you peddle this tripe.
if they get a public opion .It back door oproch. To govement health.They will not be able to compete with goverment.If this is gove.Do you realize the gove. will have your tax return no.Health care records,your bank account no.Spread the wealth around.
I currently belong to Group Health in Wa for a cost of $850.00/mo. I have no deductible, no limit on care and a $5.00 co-pay, including all prescriptions. I am retired along with my husband. I agree that insurance is important for all American citizens and would not mind certain health care reform. However, I see the same out of pocket cost for the public option policy with major increase in out of pocket costs such as deductible, co-pays and limitations of procedures. It is because i do not want to loose my choices due to the government regulating the private sector into bankruptcy. It is for this reason that i disagree with these particular bills. We do not know what else is going to added on as riders. We do not know anything. To enact healthcare reform just for the sake of healthcare reform is not logical.
84. venividivici:
I’m game, but we’ll go by state, since that’s how the electoral votes are cast. Good luck with that.
One issue that is never mentioned is the fact that we are bombarded by advertisements for new medicines. Isn’t this an area that could use some reform and save money in that the patients would not be going in and “asking their doctor” for these high priced drugs? Any studies done on this?
To David S: You scare me. Every ignorant liberal out there scares me. Just keep listening to CNN without doing your homework. Why is it so important to destroy our health care system and create a huge, bloated government run incentive destroyer when we could fix the parts of the present system individualy? Tort reform, cross-state insurance companies, tax relief for health care expenditures, many things could be done to reduce the cost significantly if conservatives were allowed to participate in the process. But it’s not allowed to happen. PBO says it’s a crisis and we all quake. Well, as a small businessman who is fed up with all the crisis management by an incompetent president and congress I can tell you that one of these days you are going to wake up and realize that we are rapidly destroying personal responsibility and incentive in this country and you can no longer afford to live here. Maybe then you will look at your country differently. In the meantime, go get a private sector job and find out whaat it costs that company to employ your sorry butt.
The only thing wrong with this article is the title. It should be, Does Obama Have the Votes For Health Care Destruction.
They sure do grow conservatives stupid these days.
89
Maybe when your side has more guns, you’ll get to set the rules.
“25. jharp:
Commuter.
Last post was mine”
I knew that. I normally ignore you. If you wish though:
Shall I bore everyone again by pasting in the evidence that you are a pathological liar with your 95% talking point? They might enjoy rereading your farcical spinning, backpedaling ignorance.
Or how about the evidence that you are a despicable failure as a father who prefers to whine about other people ponying up to care for his daughter rather than cut back on his link fees?
Or about how the expert on taxes clown with the ‘BIG TEN’ accounting degree…whose wife does his taxes?
Such a pathetic little pissant. Told you before, harpo, that you just can’t seem to grasp that everything you spew online, here and elsewhere, and on all the sites that have banned you as a sophomoric waste of time, is a matter of record.
Sharper tools, please.
80% are happy with their Health Care, so we should be addressing the uninsured as a first step. Obama pushing HIS AGENDA will get him voted out of office. This democrat won’t forget in 2010 and 2012. If Obama chooses HIS AGENDA over some ‘common sense’ steps to Health Care reform, then he has choosen his fate in 2012. Everyone keeps blaming the right, but there are a lot of Democrats who are also disappointed in Obama’s lack of common sense!
Commuter,
Be calm and check both your spelling and grammar. Just because others are less knowledgeable, chose to lie and/or are a little loose with the facts doesn’t excuse the words liar or “pissant” (I think it is” piss ant” but who knows because I don’t know the guy). Just remember everyone gets exacting what they have coming to them at the end of the day. Next time simply post those blogs that jharp has been banned .
Commuter:
“Shall I bore everyone again by pasting in the evidence that you are a pathological liar with your 95% talking point?”
____________________________________________________________
Yes, please do. You’ve got nothing. Obama cut taxes for 95% of us.
Or maybe it’s 98.6%.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/obama-has-cut-taxes-for-986-percent-of.html
Yes. Bring. It. On.
venividivici:
89
Maybe when your side has more guns, you’ll get to set the rules.
Oct 5, 2009 – 7:03 pm
What kind of idiot posts something like you just did?
Seriously, just what the hell are you getting at?
And you expect to be taken seriously?
Forget the taxpayers seeing this bill, the Senators can’t even read this bill, because the final version hasn’t been and will not be written until a few hours before the committee vote, and then they’ll try to vote on the bill the next day! That’s insane, and it shouldn’t be legal!
62. Good luck getting the public option through the Senate. No matter what happens, a reconciled bill won’t pass before they adjourn for the year, and over the break, public support for this bill will drop below 40%. It will be radioactive by the time Congress reconvenes in January.
Here’s the recent top ten UN Quality of Life rankings: Norway, Australia, Iceland, Canada, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, Switzerland and Japan. An interesting list; no US in the top ten (it never has been), and each of those countries has universal, government involved health care plans, and processes.
JUST AN OPINION: The Democrat Party has been a collection of special interest groups for years. They have no cohesive philosophy, other than perhaps “We’re from the government and here to take care of you” That philosophy will now likely cost them dearly in 2010, yes it will also hit the GOP, particularly if a Libertarian candidate is available in certain districts.
No one is talking about how to unwind the health care mess if it passes, but maybe we will not have to. The dollar is in danger in the midterm from forces the Fed and Treasury can’t handle effectively. and not a chance with the current philosophy and the management in place. Its not that they are clueless, its more they are hung up on their philosophy and can’t adapt for political reasons, they built the box from the inside-no way out.
There also may be developing a sense abroad in the world that now may just be the time to get even with America for all those perceived slights -wrongs lack of appreciation down to the crazy your “Coke Cola and Blue Jeans ruined my culture.
Also (I am not referring to the kindergarten copenhagen exercise with the IOC.
Many wold leaders were kids the last time America basically stepped up and out to save-militarily and economically the world. We accomplished this on two occasions, and you could say the third was no WWIII,
The Democrat party may be sitting astride a great American political fault that none of us quite know how far or deep it will run. Seems to me if I were a member of either party or a Libertarian I would be keenly interested in determining my position and relationship to that potential fault line in my district or state, I not only would be polling and talking I would be walking and having coffees as frequently as possible.
The political class ought to consider very frequent checking their collective sixes, there just may be an earthquake in the offing
Thanks and check your “6″
…says it all (from the NYT)
“Although the United States now spends $2.4 trillion a year on medical care — vastly more per capita than comparable countries — the nation ranks near the bottom on premature deaths caused by illnesses such as diabetes, epilepsy, stroke, influenza, ulcers and pneumonia, according to research by the nonpartisan Commonwealth Fund published in the journal Health Affairs.”
Albert, first, if you want credibility around here, you should not post propaganda from the NYT. Second, health care is not why Americans are more likely to die from your list than some in other countries (if the NYT told the whole truth for a change), life style is. We live harder and we die harder. Now you may want to live in a nanny state where our elitist betters get to tell us how to live, but that is not how the majority want to live. Finally, if you think that Obamacare is going to lower costs without using rationing or withholding care from certain groups, I think you will be quickly disappointed. If you want to evaluate the quality of care, you should take a look at the mortality rates for cancer patients.
Our only real hope for a long term, economically sustainable system is to use insurance for catastrophic coverage and move to HSA’s (charity and assistance programs for poor and disabled) for day to day medical. Once people have skin in the game, they will pay more attention to costs and that is the only way we will be able to control it without rationing.
99
jharp, we all know where this animosity is going. Don’t be (or play) naive. The country is going to have to split, eventually. My position is let’s do it now, instead of after another decade of batting the same ideas around and around.
You’re just scared because your ideology attracts Hollywood “millionaire society” types, middle-class whiners like yourself and thugs like ACORN. Not exactly the recipe for a world-class country. When those thugs come to shake YOU down instead of Citigroup, maybe then you’ll know why those of us who are saying “This all costs too much and we want no part of it going forward” said it.
’98. jharp:
Commuter:
“Shall I bore everyone again by pasting in the evidence that you are a pathological liar with your 95% talking point?”
____________________________________________________________
Yes, please do. You’ve got nothing. Obama cut taxes for 95% of us.’
You said that before tool. And when I reposted the thread comments, you spun like a dervish. One can always tell when you’re pwned. You lose control to the point that you expose your teabagging fascination.
Like I said, you just can’t get your limited intelligence around the fact that the record is there. Well, be that as it may, you hope that I’ll not bother going through the effort of pulling it back up a second time again. You’re well aware that your nonsense is not worth much on any scale, and are banking on it not being my effort. Which is correct. Your nonsense, and you, are not worth much to society, your family, or life in general.
Prove me wrong, harpo. YOU go get the relevent comments and YOU Bring. It. On.
Last thing you’d do.
Oh, and the ‘Bring. It. On.’ delusion. Wasn’t that what you said just before you started whining about being tossed off another site?
Sharper tools, please.
Hey Jharp
How much is ACORN paying you to sit in your basement and post such nonsense? Why aren’t you at work at 2PM? My guess is that you are a tax taker and not a tax payer. Hopefully in your government option there will be a mandate for mental health care. I find your stats supect as well. Maybe 65% of democrats favor a public option but when a representative cross secton of the American people are polled it comes down to 59% against and 41% for the public option. It gets even lower marks among senior citizens at 70% against. Turn off MSNBC and get a job
Commuter:
‘98. jharp:
Commuter:
“Shall I bore everyone again by pasting in the evidence that you are a pathological liar with your 95% talking point?”
____________________________________________________________
Yes, please do. You’ve got nothing. Obama cut taxes for 95% of us.’
You said that before tool. And when I reposted the thread comments, you spun like a dervish. One can always tell when you’re pwned. You lose control to the point that you expose your teabagging fascination.
Like I said, you just can’t get your limited intelligence around the fact that the record is there. Well, be that as it may, you hope that I’ll not bother going through the effort of pulling it back up a second time again. You’re well aware that your nonsense is not worth much on any scale, and are banking on it not being my effort. Which is correct. Your nonsense, and you, are not worth much to society, your family, or life in general.
_____________________________________________________________
Just as I thought, you’ve got nothing.
Obama cut taxes for 95% of us.
I am not against health care reform of some sort. I am not for a government run insurance however.
The fact is we DO NOT KNOW what the bill entails. There is so much crap thrown in that is going to hit us in other ways.
THIS IS WRONG, PERIOD!!!.
What kind of people have we elected that will pass something they do not read or understand. They refuse to post the bill so that we, the people it will effect directly, can read it all. We need to know why!
Plus, WHY are there other things besides health care in the bill?????
The issue of abortion may be the one that stops this legislation.
There are several Roman Catholic, moderated Dems, who will not allow the public finance of abortion.
The other wild card?
Cost.
If the CBO sings the wrong song the Dems are done.
GlennO:
The issue of abortion may be the one that stops this legislation.
There are several Roman Catholic, moderated Dems, who will not allow the public finance of abortion.
The other wild card?
Cost.
If the CBO sings the wrong song the Dems are done.
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Glad to see your optimism. Since publicly funded abortions are not allowed in the bill and the bill will be deficit neutral, I guess we’ve got ourselves a done deal.
Great work President Obama, not only in getting this historic legislation passed, but in burying the republican party for at least a decade.
sallie:
“I am not against health care reform of some sort. I am not for a government run insurance however.”
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So you’re against Medicare? Why do you hate our seniors?
I really wonder where you folks come up with such blatant ignorance. Do you ever think before you post?
So you’re against Medicare? Why do you hate our seniors?
We’ve been over this a billion times. Medicare is unsustainable.
http://www.scrivener.net/2008/05/how-much-will-income-taxes-have-to-go.html
It isn’t a matter of “hate” or “love” or “mean-spiritedness” or “compassion”. It’s a matter of math.
venividivici:
So you’re against Medicare? Why do you hate our seniors?
We’ve been over this a billion times. Medicare is unsustainable.
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Nonsense. Do what Ronnie Reagan did. Raise the payroll tax tax or raise the max out amount.
Nonsense. Do what Ronnie Reagan did. Raise the payroll tax tax or raise the max out amount.
I love it. You guys are like heroin addicts whose lives are going to sh*t because of their addiction, but they just won’t stop using.
http://www.scrivener.net/2008/09/can-economic-growth-head-off-coming.html
Again. Math is your enemy, not your friend. Given the dire straits of Medicare (I know, not in your illusory world, but in the world of reality, it is), you’ll have to have both tax increases and spending cuts. Running the numbers, here’s the outcome:
Both tax increases and benefit cuts. Cutting the baby in half Compromise is the essence of conflict resolution in politics. A plausible political compromise is to cut the funding gap for entitlements 50% with tax increases and 50% with spending cuts. (This is just what Congress did in the 1983 Social Security reform which saved that program from imminent insolvency.)
This would result in a 27% across-the-board income tax increase. If the projected increase in spending for each program was cut in half, Medicare benefits would be cut by 27%, Social Security benefits by 15% and Medicaid by 22%. Needless to say, such a combination would make pretty much everybody unhappy — and consequently not be easy to enact.
For perspective on just how difficult even this “50-50 compromise” would be to enact, consider…
* The tax increase is almost four times larger in GDP terms than the Clinton tax increase of 1993 that passed the Democratic Senate only on the tie-breaking vote of vice president Al Gore, and passed the Democratic House by only a single voter.
* The benefit cuts for seniors are … totally unprecedented. (Perhaps the closest precedent to consider is the well remembered by Congress “stoning of Dan Rostenkowski” by enraged seniors who attacked him on the street after the powerful Democratic Congressional leader shepherded a bill through Congress that actually called on them to pay a modest amount for government-provided long-term care health insurance — a provision immediately thereafter repealed by Congress.)
No, nothing is easy or happy about those three options. Yet the Iron Laws of Arithmetic tell us these are the only possible ways to close a funding gap: either get (tax) more money to spend … or spend less … or some combination of both. So one of these options must come true in our future.
The author then goes on to discuss the fourth possibility, which is to grow our way out of this hole. Long story short, that’s very unlikely, but feel free to read the rest yourself and rebut the author’s conclusions.
Come on, supergenius, show us how Medicare isn’t insolvent by any normal metrics!
venividivici:
The entire health reform exercise is to reign in health care costs. And Obama and the democrats are all over it.
Medicare has a slight funding shortfall projected to begin in 2019. 2019!
Hardly an unsustainable program. Reign in costs, maybe raise the payroll tax or max out amount and the problem is fixed.
“The Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is projected to start running deficits in 2010. Current income and trust fund reserves will be sufficient to pay all hospital insurance benefits until 2019, when reserves are projected to be depleted. At that point, if policymakers do not make changes, scheduled HI income will cover 78 percent of estimated expenditures. The HI deficit will average 1.6 percent of GDP over the next 75 years.
The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund is always adequately financed because beneficiary premiums and general revenue contributions are set annually to cover expected costs.
“Medicare’s long-term financing problems stem primarily from the continuing sharp rise in both public and private health care costs, not from structural problems with the program. Medicare spending is growing rapidly for the same reasons that private health spending is growing rapidly — increases in the cost and use of medical services. For several decades, increases in Medicare costs per beneficiary have mirrored the increases in costs in the health system as a whole. Between 1970 and 2006, Medicare spending for each enrollee rose by 8.7 percent annually, and private health insurance spending rose by 9.7 percent per person per year.”
The entire health reform process on capital hill is a complete crock. What we have is a SERIOUS spending problem in Washington DC. 85% of Americans like their health care. Why doesn’t our Congress attack the actual problems? There is no health care crisis, but there is an economic crisis created and perpetuated by reckless spending by our elected politicians. If we want to cuddle up closer to a socialistic form of government and enjoy less freedom and liberty, a government run health care system is just the ticket. If we want our constitutional freedoms back, then we need to fire all 535 idiots who have taken us to the brink of economic collapse and get some folks in there who cherish decent American values. For future generations to have a chance at prosperity, we have to work to keep government from destroying what’s left of our liberty. There is a point beyond which the only way to restore our republic to it’s proper status is revolution. I do not know anyone who wants to go there. Barack Obama and the Democrat controlled congress are pushing us to that point ever faster. Ramming this health care reform nonsense down our throats is not helping things – it’s making them worse. God help us.
The HI deficit will average 1.6 percent of GDP over the next 75 years.
This analysis pertains to Social Security, but the numbers used are almost identical to your 1.6% of GDP. Read it and weep.
How “tiny” is a 1.9% of GDP hole in the budget? And the revenue increase needed to plug it?
Well, the 1993 Clinton tax increase amounted to 0.83% of GDP, only about 40% as large. And that was able to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate only on vice-president Al Gore’s tie breaking vote, and pass the Democratic-controlled House by only 218-216 (a single voter’s difference).
The tax increase needed to stay even with Social Security is 2.3 times as large. A Clinton tax increase 2.3 times as large would never have gotten anywhere near the floor of Congress.
In 2007 total income tax collections (personal and corporate) were 11.2% of GDP. So increasing taxes by 1.9% of GDP to stay even with the cost of Social Security would require a 17% across-the-board income tax increase on everybody (including retirees).
Anybody who uses the word “tiny” to describes 1.9% of GDP hole in the budget, requiring a 17% across-the-board income tax increase, is trying to sell you a bill of goods. No tax increase close to this large has been enacted since the end of World War II.
You might be selling a bill of goods, but I’m not buying.
The entire health reform exercise is to reign in health care costs. And Obama and the democrats are all over it.
Ugh. Man, you and David S are hitting those talking points hard today. Must be payday at Axelturfer’s Inc.
http://www.scrivener.net/2009/07/can-nationalized-health-care-reduce.html
The Obama administration claims a critical reason to move to nationalized health care is to reduce rising health care costs that otherwise project to grow so great as to threaten the very solvency of the US government as soon as 20-odd years from now (which is true enough!)
It claims that its health care program can cut the projected level of health spending over the next 20 years by as much as 30 percent [.pdf] — through application of careful scientific analysis to direct medical expenditures towards the most effective procedures, and so forth.
But what does experience say?
Well, by far the most wasteful cost to cut, and the simplest, the “lowest-hanging fruit” of all costs to cut, is fraud. No scientific analysis is needed for that at all!
How good is the government’s record of cutting fraud from the health care it pays for?
“Of $34 billion annually spent by the Medi-Cal program for health care for some 7 million poor Californians, state officials estimate that as much as 40 percent or nearly $14 billion is stolen in fraud…” [LA Daily News]
~~
New York Medicaid fraud may reach into billions … “It’s like a honey pot,” said John M. Meekins, a former senior Medicaid fraud prosecutor in Albany who said he grew increasingly disillusioned before he retired in 2003. “It truly is. That is what they use it for”…
James Mehmet, who retired in 2001 as chief state investigator of Medicaid fraud and abuse in New York City, said he and his colleagues believed that at least 10 percent of state Medicaid dollars were spent on fraudulent claims, while 20 or 30 percent more were siphoned off by what they termed abuse, meaning unnecessary spending that might not be criminal. “So we’re talking about 40 percent of all claims …” [NY Times]
These are reports of 40% fraud in Medicaid — not “inefficient medical procedures”, but f-r-a-u-d and abuse — from coast-to-coast, or at least on both coasts, 3,000 miles apart. (Remarkable consistency!) Total Medicaid fraud is estimated to be in the deca-billions, nobody really knows the exact number obviously.
venividivici:
“Of $34 billion annually spent by the Medi-Cal program for health care for some 7 million poor Californians, state officials estimate that as much as 40 percent or nearly $14 billion is stolen in fraud…” [LA Daily News]
Put the crack pipe away. A ludicrous claim with no evidence, none, to substantiate it.
Medicare has been a smashing success. And Obama Care is going to model the public option similarly. And it’s going to pass and there isn’t a damn thing you can do about it.
Did it ever occur to you that Obama ran on reforming health care and won in a landslide. Does it not make any sense to you that Obama follows through with his campaign promise.
You remind me of a pesky fly. Now shoo fly. Your guy lost.
Did it ever occur to you that Obama ran on reforming health care and won in a landslide.
Did it ever occur to you that I don’t care about either of these points, the second of which is highly debatable, since he won by a single-digit % margin. Hardly a “landslide”.
Put the crack pipe away. A ludicrous claim with no evidence, none, to substantiate it.
PJM ate my reply to this. Probably because I had too many links to stories of Medicare fraud.
Anyway, speaking of crack:
Mafia, violent criminals turn to Medicare fraud
By KELLI KENNEDY (AP) – 15 hours ago
MIAMI — Lured by easier money and shorter prison sentences, Mafia figures and other violent criminals are increasingly moving into Medicare fraud and spilling blood over what was once a white-collar crime.
Around the nation, federal investigators have been threatened, an informant’s body was found riddled with bullets, and a woman was discovered dead in a pharmacy under investigation, her throat slit with a piece of broken toilet seat.
For criminals, Medicare schemes offer a greater payoff and carry much shorter prison sentences than offenses such as drug trafficking or robbery.
“We’ve seen more people that used to be involved in (dealing) drugs are switching over to health care fraud because it’s not as dangerous,” Miami FBI spokeswoman Judy Orihuela said…
“Building a Medicare fraud scam is far safer than dealing in crack or dealing in stolen cars, and it’s far more lucrative,” said Lewis Morris, lead attorney at the Department of Health and Human Services’ inspector general’s office.
Maybe that should be ObamaCare’s slogan, “So Easy To Defraud, A Former Crack Dealer Can Do It!”
Medicare has been a smashing success. And Obama Care is going to model the public option similarly. And it’s going to pass and there isn’t a damn thing you can do about it.
When I read this, immediately the lyrics to the song “It’s My Party (And I’ll Cry If I Want To)” came to mind. You are just like a little girl, in your foot-stamping anger and fawning obsequiousness, so the image fits. When I read your posts, I feel the same kind of combination of loathing and pity that old school European explorers did when they came across native tribes who’d been living in their own filth for thousands of years.
You remind me of a pesky fly. Now shoo fly. Your guy lost.
You remind me of a fly’s favorite meal. In our system, elections aren’t the end of politics, they are simply a weigh-station in a continuous stream of political maneuvering. Perhaps you’d be happier in a totalitarian state where there is no politics.
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