Does Obama Have the Stronger Ground Game in Ohio?
Last week National Review reported some rather unsettling campaign numbers out of Ohio:
Obama has 120 campaign offices in the state, while Romney has 40. The Obama campaign has spent $52 million on advertising in Ohio, while the Romney campaign has spent $30 million (as of October 5). However, the Republican National Committee has spent $4.4 million to the DNC’s zero, and there have been $15.3 million in ads from right-leaning outside groups and super PACs against $11.6 million from left-leaning outside groups.
Looking at these raw numbers, it would appear that the Romney campaign is operating a lean Ohio operation in the face of a towering Obama opposition, but it’s not quite that simple.
On its face, the disparate number of campaign offices and dollars spent may seem troubling, but it’s not necessarily symptomatic of a floundering Romney campaign. First, let’s consider the campaign offices. A look at the 2008 map from the presidential campaign shows that the vast majority of the state’s counties voted for Sen. John McCain that year.
In 2010, when Republicans swept both houses of the General Assembly, all statewide offices, and the open Senate seat, most counties in the state voted Republican, with large swaths of the state voting with a 20%+ GOP advantage.
These counties are solidly, historically in the Republican camp. If you compare these maps with the places Romney has campaign offices, you can see that he is targeting areas that Democrats won in 2008 and 2010, hoping to gain ground. There’s not necessarily a good reason to have a campaign office on every street corner in every red-voting county. That said, we can’t discount the fact that the winner of Ohio’s important 18 electoral votes will be decided by the popular vote and not by winning individual counties, so we won’t know until Election Day if Obama’s strategy to have more campaign offices than counties in Ohio will pay off.
Obama does not have a better ground game in Ohio. Romney will win Ohio 53/47. It won’t be close. Please stop publishing unjustified election fear porn, unecessarily emotionally terrorizing people that this administration might stay in power, because they won’t. Barry is going to lose big.
I heard the ground game squib from Kirsten Powers yesterday. Nobody responded to it. I’m glad Bolyard answered the question. Now I know why a “better ground game” may not dictate an Obama victory in Ohio.
Joe, it’s better to be alert and on top of the game as opposed to being complacent. It ain’t over until it’s over, and I won’t count Ohio in the win column until the Ohio Secretary of State certifies the results. I fully expect Obama to contest the results – they have already demonstrated they will do and say anything.
Who’s being complacent?
The combination of alienating white working class, catholics, the continued economic slide and higher unemployment, Ohio isn’t going blue this year. Obama has simply made to many enemies in that state and will lose by more than Kerry did in 2004. I think it’s even beyond the margin of fraud at this point.
Let’s hope so because the Obama team is capable of big time fraud.
Issa’s committee investigates Chicago USAO
http://illinoispaytoplay.com/2012/10/30/issas-committee-investigates-chicago-usao/
We happened to be in Ohio right before the 2008 election when a judge ruled something like “people” could use park benches and sewer lids as their addresses in order to make them eligible to vote. Do you think for one minute the Obama people won’t take full advantage of numerous people using the same park bench or sewer lid as their address even if just passing through. I don’t know if Ohio has the register on the spot and vote immediately where you can’t verify a persons voting qualification but all this is ripe for voter fraud.
I would not be surprised if Oregon and Minnesota both are not Romney this election cycle. Why? Barack Obama is too partisan for the average citizen and OBAMACARE. Obamatax is costing obama this election.
the map from 2008 is interesting, considering many of the blue counties are in the most economically depressed areas of the state, and along the Ohio river, where power plants are shutting down…..wonder how much buyers remorse has set in? Ohioan’s generally are not fooled so badly, so hopefully an attitude change has occurred.
This article is very informative about a lesser known variable in the campaign and election process, then GOTV effort.
One thing I would like interest groups to understand is that I have about had it with the phone calls, especially the robo calls. I don’t want to hear a recorded message from Michelle Bachman like I get in a call yesterday. When there is that pause when I pick up the phone, I usually just hang up. I’m really tired of it.
I contribute money to constitutionally oriented candidates who I pick one by one. I have given Romney money. I would crawl across broken glass with snipers on the hill tops and mortars raining HE to vote against the various Marxists who are arrayed on our ballots. So would my wife and several of our friends. I don’t need any more damn phone calls. I don’t need to hear from the NRA, I already give them money too. Same with Club For Growth.
Reince Prebius and company need to figure out how to avoid pissing people like me off. That should be their next goal. I am an ally and I need to be treated as such. I’ve about had it with the heavy handed BS.
Amen, amen! Are you listening, campaigners? This will be the next frontier in micro-targeting- knowing not to keep shelling ground you’ve already won.
“I would crawl across broken glass with snipers on the hill tops and mortars raining HE to vote” I feel the same way, and am totally stealing that
LOL… I was telling one of my liberal friends yesterday pretty much that same thing. I left out the HE mortars but threw in a field crawling with rattlesnakes. But, I would go with the HEs raining down. WPs wouldn’t stop me either.
I know what you mean. If the doctor gave me one day to live, the first thing I’ do would be get an absentee ballot. Or vote early.
AN URGENT MESSAGE FOR AMERICA. WATCH HERE: http://bwcentral.org/2012/10/an-urgent-message-for-america/
How do Republicans prevent Dems from stealing the election? Everyone’s familiar with the tactics by now.
Here’s what needs to be done:
1. Republicans and conservatives need to win elections at the state level.
2. State legislators need to pass constitutional voter ID laws that are signed into law.
3. We need to get rid of Motor Voter same day registration.
4. Voter rolls need to be inspected and purged of deceased voters or illegally registered voters.
5. We need to get rid of early voting. Election day is election day, if you can’t be there get an absentee ballot and vote.
That would get rid of a good part of the problem.
I don’t want to hear about voter suppression because of ID requirements, it’s an idiotic charge that indicates to me that one who raises it has not bought a bottle of booze or flown on an airliner. Hell, you need a damn ID to get into an Obama campaign event. If you don’t like ID requirements it tells me you’re into fraud.
As I said above, I would crawl across broken glass, with snipers on the hill tops to vote. I can not be suppressed. I don’t really want to hear how you have less conviction than I have. This is not 1962 in the Jim Crow Democrat south for Pete’s sake.
That is a thing I never understood: why early voting? It is not only bad for democracy to have people voting before getting all the elements the electoral campaign was supposed to give them, there is no need of it at all.
Consider european countries: vote lasts for a single day. One. Not weeks. And despite this there are no long lines of citizens waiting in the snow for th opportunity to cast their vote like soviet citizens waiting to buy meat. In fact it is rare there is a line at all. It is just a question of having enough places where to vote. Period. No need for electronic gizmos. They use good, ols and auditable paper ballots. Before hand you are assigned a place where to vote. If you aren’t registered in that particular place (close to your domicile) you can’t vote in it. This prevents “fraud by overloading”. And of course you have to producve an ID. An ID with your mug in it and there is an official and very short list of documents who can be used for this purpose. You have to sign (ie if a candidate tries to use usurpers voting in place of people who arren’t going to vote there is a chance to catch him). Counting is made immediately after closure of election and it is done in a multipatisan way. In a few hours counting is over and they only have to aggragte the results nationally.
When counting is finished all the votes are stored in a safe place and this sealed so they can be verified by the judiciary. Ballots will be rejected if they hacve ever left a multipartisan chain of custody: doing an Al Franken, ie “finding” voting boxes “forgotten” in a car trunk will not land you at the house but in jail.
I simply cannot understand whey the leading democracy in the world does not take democracy as a serious matter.
BTW the US Constitution should be Amended in the following way: Federal governement has power to regulate federal elections.
JFM said, “BTW the US Constitution should be Amended in the following way: Federal governement has power to regulate federal elections.”
This already happens to a certain extent and with increasingly dangerous results. The Democrats have been using the Federal courts to interfere in the way states run their elections, including (as they did in Ohio this year), setting the dates and times for the polls to be open. They’ve also interfered with state photo ID laws. It is a serious infringement on the 10th amendment when the courts override state legislatures’ election laws. Nearly every federal election is also a state and local election. In fact, they are MOSTLY state and local elections. The states should decide how they want to run them.
In addition, do you really want Eric Holder running all federal elections in this country? That’s a recipe for eternal one-party rule.
“I simply cannot understand whey the leading democracy in the world does not take democracy as a serious matter.”
Because one of our two major parties relies heavily on voter fraud and will never willingly shut off that spigot. Why are we the only nation in the world that doesn’t take its own immigration laws seriously? Same answer.
I’m amazed that the election will be decided by a bunch of yokels from Ohio! have any of those people ever been to New York? Why are we allowing such people to decide the fate of humanity? We should be limiting the selection of future presidents to the State of NY, Conneticut, Mass, and Vermont….oh, and parts of California.
Don’t forget the bankrupt state of Illinois whose biggest city claims the honor as the Murder Capital of the country.
That may be why the capital’s “favorite son” believes the death of four Americans in Benghazi was no big f*cking deal. It was about 0.67% of the toll in Chicago.
“Though it didn’t receive as much attention as Wisconsin’s union fight, Ohio Republicans went to war with labor unions last year and lost when the unions poured millions of dollars into a referendum to repeal the GOP’s union reform law. They convinced 62% of Ohioans to vote to support “workers’ rights.”
That statement makes me worry that all the enthusiasm leading up to Nov. 6 in the Romney camp might be another “John Roberts” moment (with regard to the Supreme Court’s Obamacare decision).
I wanted to puke after Roberts defected to the left.
I don’t want to throw a went blanket on Republican hopes, but let it serve as a motivator to GET OUT THE VOTE IN OHIO.
This thing isn’t over until the last vote is counted and the last lawsuit is settled!
On that same ballot you refer to, Ohioans voted by a 60% margin to reject Obamacare. I feel confident that Ohio will go for Romney. Those 60% of Ohioans still hate Obamacare
Romney doesn’t have to win Ohio. Michigan will put him over the top. So will Wisconsin and Iowa. There are some other paths as well.
One thing about Romney is that he is a good data guy, easily the best data guy in recent Republican history.
The biggest risk in Ohio is fraud, not the ground game. That’s why Romney can’t put all of his eggs in that basket.
Yokels generally denote non-thinking people. These now all live in the states you note.
It is a mistake to underestimate those of us who live in flyover country.
This may be a really stupid thing to say but: just because the Obama campaign gets voters to the polls that doesn’t mean those voters will vote for Obama. They may say they’re going to vote for Obama, but that doesn’t mean they will.
Hahaha so true. I’m just recently moved to FL for grad school and I registered to vote at the Obama table on campus because it was convenient. I marked my application as independent to make sure nothing “happened” to it. They also tried to get me to accept a bus ride to vote early, but I decided that spending the all that time with a bunch of Obama supporters would’ve been too much. I got my voter information card in the mail about a week ago, along with endless fliers from the Obama campaign. I figured why not bleed their campaign machine and inflate their hopes as much as possible? I vote in 1 week, and I vote for Romney.
This is a good point. There have been some very outspoken (and visible) pastors who have been speaking out about the president’s policies (especially on social issues) and urging their members to make informed choices rather than voting as a monolithic, traditional Democrat block.
I am an American citizen living outside the USA, and have been told by a surprising number of loud, ignorant Republicans that I should NOT vote (and many believe I have no RIGHT to vote) because I don’t currently live in the USA. I realize that there are an embarrassing number of Americans who have never been farther from home than Disneyland/World, but American citizens can vote in American elections regardless of where we happen to be living at the time of the voting. I wonder how many people don’t vote because they think the ignoranti are right?
You know what, your vote doesn’t count unless the votes in your “home” state are close. Hence, declare yourself an Ohioan, or Oihoan if you prefer, and send in your absentee ballot. Don’t forget, vote early, vote often.
“..and have been told by a surprising number of loud, ignorant Republicans that I should NOT vote”
I’ve been an expat for a long time and vote in every general election and have a hard time believing your statement.
The election is a fight between those who want a job and those who settle with a disability check.
What the article implies is that the Republican ground game is being run like a business while the Democratic campaign is being run like a government bureaucracy. That’s not surprising given the pedigree and background of each party’s leader. Guess which one is more efficient?
I like Romney’s chances in Ohio.
Here’s a glaring example of that: If you want to attend a Romney rally you can go online (via an email link, the Romney app, or the campaign website), reserve a ticket, and either print a paper copy or get the QR code on your iPhone or Droid (go Green!).
If you want to go to an Obama rally, you can reserve your ticket online, but you actually have to physically pick up the ticket ahead of time (first come, first served) at the venue, the union hall, or the campaign HQ closest to the venue. I considered going to see Obama or Biden this week (before they cancelled), but decided it wasn’t worth it to drive an hour round-trip JUST TO PICK UP THE TICKET!! I suspect that Obama’s crowds are largely union members who are handed tickets and groups they are busing in. Romnmey’s crowds are completely organic. You’d have to be extremely motivated to make an extra trip just to pick up a ticket (not even knowing if one was available!).
Dick Morris says Romney could lose Ohio and still win the election. I hope he’s right on that, even if my state goes into the wrong column (Obama’s). Maybe a Republican victory without Ohio will finally kill the idea that they need Ohio to win, as well killing off all the political ads from both parties that are driving me to throw my remote at my TV. To me, Florida’s 29 electoral votes are a lot more important than Ohio’s 18.
Careful what you say! Removing Ohio from “ultimate swing state” status would crush our economy. Think of all the lost jobs in the printing, bulk mail, advertising, robocall, polling, special events, and political consultant industries!
Yeah, I really feel sorry for them. Sarcasm intended.
This is the best and most complete guided to Roman Catholic voting patterns in Ohio that you can get for free —
http://www.completecatholicism.org/catholic-voter-guide#Ohio
Gary Johnson’s closing pitch: ‘Waste your vote on me’ Posted by Felicia Sonmez on October 23, 2012
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/23/gary-johnsons-closing-pitch-waste-your-vote-on-me/