Does McCain Still Have a Shot at Colorado?
And then there’s this little item from the conservative site Virginia Virtucon:
I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted [sic] states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen [sic], Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats.
Problem is, I don’t see it. Not from here, anyway.
The Virtucon post above is one unnamed source corroborated by… hardly one poll. The polling firm I rely on most, Rasmussen Reports, just moved Florida — Florida — from “Toss-Up” into the “Leans Dem” column. This, with less than a week to go before Election Day, and in a state where the actual voting has already started.
In Colorado things don’t look any better. Calls to a couple of McCain offices — he has only a dozen in the entire state — went unreturned. Obama has about 50 offices here, and Governor Bill Ritter says he’s “never seen a ground game like Barack Obama’s.” AFP reports that, nationally, only 23% of Hispanic voters — a large and growing constituency in Colorado — are going for McCain. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote in 2004.
The RealClearPolitics average has Obama up by 8.3%, although that figure is skewed by one outlying poll by Rocky Mountain News/CBS4. But no current poll shows Obama with under 50%. Even assuming every single last undecided voter were to break for McCain, victory is still difficult, if not impossible, to see.
At least that’s the view from where I sit, at 7,500 feet.
I kinda agree. I don’t see McCain winning CO. Obama’s been really pushng there for some time. I’m a guy who believes the polls are off this year, but CO sounds right. It’s been steady growth commensurate with Obama’s effort there. VA has been the same way, but I’m still dubious, because of the demographics.
Still, McCain has finally succeeded in defining Obama (socialistic). He looks likely to win PA in my eyes. That can have a huge effect in the western States who are 2-3 hours behind. Once it becomes acceptable to vote against Obama because of the trend in PA, it can become contagious.
There is a stipulation here that only 23% of Hispanic voters are for McCain. Stats that seem statistically improbable, even though some polls are reflecting those numbers. Remember the Obama weakness with Hispanics in the primaries, McCain’s traditional strength within this population, and Bush garnering 45% in 2004? This could be a true election day surprise. Shifting the Hispanic vote to 60 – 40 would change the dynamic in several battleground states, and flip most all of them to McCain. Exit question: Do we all trust AFP, Pew, Politico et al to have this demographic right when logic and history would differ?
Colorado evangelicals and conservatives didn’t turn out in huge numbers in the 2004 election. We were demoralized by the Colorado GOP selecting beer magnate Pete Coors “Twins!” as the Senate and the stiff and unfriendly Bob Beauprez as Governor.
Colorado conservatives and evangelicals are fired up by Sarah Palin and the pro-infanticide Obama. There’s someone to vote for — Sarah — and someone to really despise and detest — Obama. Plus we have nice-guy Bob Schaffer running against the snotty Boulder liberal Mark Udall, a fine race that appeals to the right.
McCain wins Colorado by a bigger margin than Bush in 04.
I’m from Oklahoma, working for McCain in Colorado. Things are more optimistic here than one might expect. I sense it is tighter and people are responding positively to McCain signs, shirts, etc. Don’t count the Centennial State out yet.
Exit polls have McCain up by 4 in Florida.
Listen to Bonnie; a real voter always knows it better than the polling/media “experts”!
Is there any Colorado push back to the active oil shale drilling in the NW?
Colorado may be a non event with Ohio, Penn, and Florida going McCain. Only if McCain loses Virginia would Colorado be critical.
Personally I don’t see the Republic of Boulder outpolling the conservatives in Colorado Springs.
OBAMA IS THE STEALTH CANDIDATE!
The reasons why candidate Obama cannot be trusted are explained at this link;
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2008/10/obama-is-stealth-candidate.html
IVE READ THE SAME POLLS IN FLORIDA-GUESS WHAT-LOCAL PAPERS IN SW OHIO SHOW EARLY VOTING IS FAVORING MCSHAME BY ABOUT 3 PTS. IF OBAMI COMMIE CANT WIN NE AND NW OHIO BY HUGE NUMBERS HE LOSES OHIO-SINCE CINCY VOTES GOP BY ABOUT A 70-30 MARGIN. SAME IN PENNSYLVANIA-COMMIE OBAMI BETTER WIN IT IN PHILLY-SW PENN IS POD ABOUT “BITTERCLINGERS,RACISTS AND REDNECKS”. IF I WERE JACK MURTHA ID BE LOOKING AT MY PENSION CHECK,LT COL RUSSELL IS SENDING YOUR FAT ASS INTO RETIREMENT. IF OBAMI COMMIE LOSES FLA,OHIO AND PENN ITS OVER.HE CANT LOSE ALL THREE AND WIN.
I attended the Hewitt, Prager, Medved rally here in Colorado on Monday and was pleasently surprised at the support and the turnout over 2500 people – standing room only! Don’t count us out just yet.
I think the greatest shock may be New Hampshire. They really supported McCain there in the primaries. McCain has spent more time, and shaken more hands in that State than anyone. I’m looking forward to the results from there. It’ll keep the pundits busy for days.
Steve, I’ve got to agree with Andrew and KMJ: we’re not hearing that, and when I’ve worked the phones i’m getting a lot of people who say they plan to vote for McCain.
I think maybe the best thing to say is “we really don’t have a clue.”
Sort of screws up the pundit thing, though.
LET’S HELP OURSELFS, JOIN TOGETHER,SENIORS, POOR MIDDLE CLASS,BLACKS, HISPANICS, MEXICANS, WHITES ALL NATIONALITY, TOGETHER WE CAN, YES WE CAN, HOPE, CHANGE IS COMMING, FIRE IT UP, YES WE CAN, GO VOTE OBAMA, GET UP GO VOTE, HE CAN ONLY WIN IF WE VOTE FOR HIM, FOR CHANGE
GO VOTE OBAMA, FOR PRESIDENT, HELP OUR SELVES
JFK WON THE PRESIDENTCY WITH OUT WINNING OHIO, HE DID NOT WIN OHIO, KNOWN FACTS
MCCAIN IS A LIAR, CRIMMAL OF WAR, CINDY IS A CRIMMAL OF DRUG
PALIN IS FOR HER FAMILY NOT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, PALIN PUT FIRES PEOPLE, TAKE FUNDS FOR PERSONAL USE AND DO NOT DISCLOSE IT
PALIN FLY HER CHILDREN CROSS COUNTRY FOR $40,000
DOLLARS, MISSUSING ALASKA, THEY ARE AFRAID OF HER, SHE WILL FIRE THEM, SO THEY DON’T WANT TO SPEAK OUT ABOUT HER, PALIN SHOULD NOT WIN RE-ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR, BECAUSE ALL THE BAD THINGS AGAINST HER
Colorado’s been listing to the left for a while. In 2004, even though we ended up breaking for Bush, it was then a swing state as it is now, and neither party could count on us (and to a lesser degree in 2000). Then in 2006, we elected a Democrat governor, we have a Democrat state congress, one of our Senators is Democrat, and 4 out of 7 House Reps are Democrat.
I still have hope for McCain, but if Obama wins Colorado, which is entirely possible, it’s just a continuation of what’s been in progress for several years now.
Bonnie has a good point, but I disagree that the last elections were a result of demoralization. I think the last elections were a result of a slow but continuous lean in that direction for quite some time now, thanks to the liberalization of the Denver Metro Area. (My district, #6, remains very red, but I’m interested to see by what margin this year. In the past, Tomcredo won by something like 72%. I don’t expect it this high for Mike Coffman this year.)
Face it. Colorado is getting bluer by the year. No one wants to see a reversal of that more than I.
if you will read obamas 2 books audacity of hope anddreams from my father you will see the real obama ,dont take my word for it get the books ,at the libraby maybe . he feels about whites about like his oastor wright did. he also states in audacity of hope that i will stand with the muslims should the political winds shift.poor jewish people that have already voted for him .these are his words not mine.
Well you better brace for a big let down if Obama wins. Did you listen to his speech last night . Well it went from $250,000.00 down to $200,000.00 and than down to $150,000.00 who will not be taxed. He is a liar and I am voting for John McCain. Obama will lead our country into socialism along with Pelosi and the rest. If you think the Joe Binden is helping out by saying that he doesn’t think that Obama is ready to lead the country what is up with this statement. Better wake up or hoard your money because the democrat’s are looking to take everything from us. And watch the taxes go up for all middle class and low income people and he will not make anyone pay more taxes that make more money than the people who make $250,000 down to $150,000.00 Wake up vote Republican this year or you better say a big prayer but it won’t do you any good because it will be to late.
#6 Bonnie,
Are you from Planet X, just arrived? There aren’t enough idiots in CO to vote for Palin and make a difference. Evangelical idiots is more like it….
his speech did NOT change the mumbers – you are a bloody liar. Cathy
how can he be a Muslim (as 20% of texas thinkgs ) if
you say he is Christain?
Sources: Sarkozy views Obama stance on Iran as ‘utterly immature’
French President Nicolas Sarkozy is very critical of U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama’s positions on Iran, according to reports that have reached Israel’s government.
Sarkozy has made his criticisms only in closed forums in France. But according to a senior Israeli government source, the reports reaching Israel indicate that Sarkozy views the Democratic candidate’s stance on Iran as “utterly immature” and comprised of “formulations empty of all content.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031943.html
2008. The year The One (Barack Obama) … Lost.
Obamalies or Lies Obama Tells
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=73
Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain’s lead subject to a wide margin of error
DUH!
sarkozy said nothing of the kind!
you are a bloody moronic troll trying to lie
Vote for that man from Chicago. The cleanest city in the cleanest state (politically) in America. And aside from Tony Rezko’s help with buying his house nobody’s got notin on him, yet.
nick,
Yeah despite the links Sarkozy didn’t say that. The Whole foreign press is in the tank for McCain and they are just making stuff up.
Reality much?
Everyone needs to remember that about 28% of Hillary democrats say they’re voting for McCain, and another 14% say they’re not voting for Obama or McCain. Obama is not going to win any of the 2004 Red states, and will certainly lose Pa. and maybe Wisconsin and New Jersey. It’s going to be a landslide alright, but for McCain. Just be sure to vote.
Hillary is out speaking for Obama and 28% of Hillary supporters are going to vote against what she is saying?
can I have some of what you are smoking!
here is the OFFICIAL statement by France – not WND, not Fox news, not freerepublic, etc
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=73585§ionid=351020101
“The remarks attributed by the newspaper Haaretz to the president of the French Republic concerning Sen. Obama’s positions on Iran are groundless,” the French Embassy said in a statement
sinec we can qutoe any sours
“soruces say that Fank and Simon like to bugger smakk boys”
or was that another Mccain supporter
http://archives.cnn.com/2002/US/04/02/priest.abuse.settlement/index.html
guess I have to slow down
Since we can quote any source, I saw
“sources say that Fank and Simon like to bugger small boys”
Nick, The world is a very tough, highly competitive place. Achievers are very lucky that there are so many losers like you out there. It makes it so much easier to succeed.
So here’s what I see: McCain surges, but it isn’t enough. He wins FL, VA, OH, NC, IN, CO, MO, GA, plus all of his safe states. Obama wins MN, MI, PA, NM, NH, NV along with his safe states. Result: 269 to 269 tie in the Electoral College, throwing the election to the House of Representatives where Obama is selected the next President.
God Bless America/
peter.
i love your AH attack which means you dont
have any thing of substance
the military that relies on my systems has a different attitude.
Not sure it matters. Ohhhhh……BAAM is ineligible to be President under the Constitution. So even if he gets elected, I don’t think any legislation he signs can become law. Some one will challenge a law on that grounds, since any bill sent to him for a signature will automatically become a pocket veto, since his signature is no good.
So nothing he does will count. An empty suit in an empty house.
And if the courts go in the tank and rule that the Constitution doesn’t matter, then it will be the end of America and their will be no America for him to be President of.
No there is change you can count on.
I am from Colorado and unfortunately the answer to the question is no.
im from Colorado Springs and the answer Mccain is Toast in the state even if he gets the american taliban to vote for him here.
oh, and lying morons like ex fetus!
I’m the Republican candidate for the State House of Reps. District 6 here in Colorado. My campaign received a phone call Wednesday from the national McCain-Palin HQ in Virginia asking if we needed volunteers and help in walking and/or calling in our district.
District 6 isn’t exactly Elbert County or Colorado Springs or Grand “22,000 for Palin” Junction. It’s a 42-25 Democrat district in Denver that we’ve been calling, walking, mailing, and delivering to pretty heavily. But it’s still a 42-25 Democrat district.
Some of those volunteers are being brought in from out of state, and others are being activated locally.
That doesn’t strike me as having given up.
Drill Baby Drill
I voted Hil in the primaries, and probably would have for Pres (darn the follow-my-vagina syndrome!) and would never in hell vote for Obama, no matter what she or Bill say about it. And I am not alone. So yeah, McCain is getting a lot of her supporters.
There’s a lot of air force in Colorado. I don’t see them going Obama. Colorado might be bluing, but Obama is so far past blue he’s almost invisible. There aren’t enough granolas (yet) to take the state.
If you are a McCain supporter, please send a donation if you can. Even if it’s just $2.00, we need to donate to show support. This is the home stretch and we need to stand up at this time so we can drag him over the finish line. If you can’t donate, please make phone calls to battleground states. You can go to his website and sign up and they will provide you with the numbers. If you can’t do either one of those, then get on the blogs and encourage others to do it. Just a few words of support to reach out to fellow Americans to lift the spirits. Also, remember that the media will try to discourage voters by reporting that Obama is going to win early in the evening. Please start spreading the message. Fight for John McCain because he fought for you.
I dont think they gave up either
district 6 will still go 42 dems
nick,
You either can’t spell or you got in too big of a rush. Either way, your posts are childish. Are you old enough to vote? If PJM is lucky, you will be a troll in a new location tomorrow.
you arent donating to Mccain – he reached limit
its the REpublican National Committee
but they want to hide so you dont hink its BUshs people
to the FF jim baker, im 59 so STFU
you racist are finally losing,. You lost 2000 but stole it,
2004 was unlikable Kerry and he almost won anyway in middle of war
Now you are toast
I live in Colorado and all I see (outside of Denver) are McCain signs…..and the only Obama signs are the ones outside headquarter buildings. More people have voted in the pe-vote than ever before. There was no exit polling when I went through, nor have I heard of any early results, but I would bet that it’s not an Obama landslide. And yes, conservatives are fired up and scared of an Obama win. Except for Denver and the People’s Republic of Boulder, Colorado residents want government out of their business and they like owning guns. Also, there’s a huge military and veteran population, so the thought of Obama’s administration changing the fundamentals of the constitution is the real reason they won’t vote for Obama.
Well, did I just see confirmation of something I’ve thought for awhile now —
“nick” is “nlcatter” — see the exchange b/w #47 and #48
Probably another BO tactic to make people think he has more supporters than he really does — keep changing your name and write the same tripe.
Phonies all. Following Dear Leader’s example.
nlcatter – Actually, people can give to the compliance fund. This is for legal and admin expenses, so the campaign funds can all be used for campaigning. So, yeah, it can effectively go to the campaign.
that was not the point – yes RNC also is effective
it was point that Mccain wants not to be tied to GOP title
google toolbar types in my login name or I type
my name
Email is same – ask the moderator. DUH!!
go to 2000 N Cascade in CO springs
MORON and you will see are Obama signs
in the heart of the American Taliban Co Springs
Forget it. No chance.
@41 Joshua,
I voted for you, but Lois Court (Democrat) will win 70-30. If, you are lucky.
,dave
#55 Scott F summed it nicely.
Many of you writing here are completely delusional.
Look at the data:
1. http://www.pollster.com/polls/co/08-co-pres-ge-mvo.php
2. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
3. http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
I live in Boulder County and what I’ve notice this year compared to 2000 & 2004 is the lack of Obama signs on cars and in lawns. In both 2000 & 2004 8 out of ten cars had Gore/Kerry stickers. This year only 1 in ten cars has an Obama sticker
Obama’s support is falling fast. The polls have him BEHIND McCain and Obama is DOWN from one to several points.
All McCain ads are FULL STEAM AHEAD: Check-out the new ads from LET FREEDOM RING at
http://www.letfreedomringusa.com/pages/election-2008-tv-spots.
Let’s ELECT John McCain … Commander-In-Chief of the United States.
Who let the dogs out??? Are the trolls fro Kos bored?
What a bunch of loosers.
1 Obama charged for bumper stickers and yard signs Mccain gave them away free
2 they dont matter – Obama people vote on issues, not if the Pig ahs 150K in clothes.
http://www.pollster.com/
shows OBAMA has it but perhaps that is biased
Try KARL ROVE site – Gee mr GOP shows Obama has it too!
http://www.rove.com/election
“Obama people vote on issues”
Ahhaahahahahahaa, Obama people vote on issues!!!! What a joke. Obambi won’t be clear on the issues because he’s far too liberal. Euro wussy liberals are to the right of him. Obama people vote on issues, what a troll you are Nich, a 59 year old dumbass!!!
have the Obama coal issues gotten out in Colorado yet?
hotair.com
Obama – bankrupt coal
skyrocketing electricity prices (49% comes from coal)
where is pajamas on this one
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/03/video-of-obama-coal-bankruptcy/
Obama did not say he would bankrupt coal
the Clean Coal industry says Omaba backs coal usage,
Im 59?
have you seen my BC?
you moronic GOPers will believe anything you see on the web!v
whew- I thought I was right
but you liars scared me
now I know you to be pathetic.