Disarming North Korea: Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity
But the “correlation of forces” in North Asia shifted with both Japan — two years ago with the elevation of Shinzo Abe as prime minister — and South Korea — this February with the inauguration of Lee Myung-bak as president — adopting tougher positions against the North. Therefore, for the first time ever, Beijing was left alone in its support of the Kim regime. In the past, Beijing has defied Washington when it had company but was almost always cooperative when it did not. Now that China is isolated in its support for the North, the Bush White House is still unwilling to make the country choose between its future — cooperation with the United States — and its past — relations with North Korea. Today, Washington has failed to recognize and capitalize on these favorable regional currents.
And there is one more trend favorable to the United States. At this moment, the North is becoming even more vulnerable. Its economy is in the third year of an economic downturn, its impoverished people face the prospect of another famine, its leader is ailing (evidence that Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke in August is now “overwhelming”), and its one-man form of government is in doubt as succession to a next-generation Kim is hardly assured. What may be of particular importance are the rumors, circulating in Seoul earlier this year, that wealthy North Koreans were shipping ever-larger amounts of cash to European tax havens, especially Liechtenstein. If true, we may soon be witnessing a new round of regime weakness and instability.
In the past, the Kim family has come to terms with the international community on its nuclear program only when there were problems at home. For instance, the most important nuclear agreement between the United States and North Korea — the Agreed Framework — was signed just three months after the July 1994 death of Kim Il Sung. Pyongyang entered into that arrangement when Kim Jr. had yet to consolidate power — and when it appeared that North Korea would collapse. After the younger Kim managed to formally assume power and guide the North to relative economic stability, he pushed ahead with his nuclear weapons efforts.
Therefore, this period of internal weakness in North Korea and the changing dynamics in North Asia offer the United States a once-in-a-generation opportunity to change course and, for the first time in history, prevail over the Kimist regime.
But only the most coercive type of diplomacy will work, and the place to start is Beijing. The Chinese need us more than we need them. The stability of the modern Chinese state depends on prosperity, and that prosperity depends on access to American markets and technology. Last year, exports to America accounted for all but US$5.9 billion of China’s overall trade surplus of US$262.2 billion. A weak U.S. economy is the major factor in the disappointing Chinese growth figures announced last Monday.
The next president cannot prevail over North Korea without putting the hard word on Beijing. What can we do to persuade the Chinese to help? We can downgrade relations with China unless it puts real pressure on North Korea to disarm. Specifically, we can end military exchanges that result in transfers of our war-fighting expertise. We can end lucrative port calls in China. We can conduct thorough inspections of Chinese products at our borders. We can end our lax enforcement of China’s trade obligations. We can oppose Chinese territorial ambitions that impinge on traditional notions of international water and airspace. We can support our allies’ territorial claims. We can end the fifty or so bilateral forums that we conduct with China. We can draw closer to India and other nations Beijing fears. We can impose real sanctions for supplying nuclear weapons assistance to Iran. We can threaten China when it commits acts of war against the United States (lasering our satellites, conducting daily cyber attacks, helping North Korea counterfeit our currency, etc.). We can stop our support for Beijing’s membership in international organizations.
We can do all the things a great power can do to make life miserable for potential adversaries. With the Chinese economy showing the first signs of steep recession, the leaders in Beijing should be all ears.
Gordon Chang’s article is meaningless unless John McCain wins the presidency. Is it even being written with a straight face? A Barack Obama administration will simply surrender to our enemies. After all, the North Korean totalitarian dictatorship is allegedly a victim of our racist and oppressive policies. Moreover, it is humorous to read that “the Chinese economy showing the first signs of steep recession.” What the heck is going to happen in the United States? Obama will do enormous damage to our own economy.
This entire article is a meangingless drivel.
It’s about a year too late.
A year ago, it could have worked, probably at the risk of causing a global meltdown and economic recession here in the US if the Chinese decided to call the US bluff. More likely, the Chinese would have backed down from the abyss and did what it was told.
Today?! The global economic trouble means the US neither has the will nor the believable bluff to foist on the Chinese its demands. If the US did what Chang says it should, China would most definitely dare us to do the worst. And if we did, we would become the global pariah for turning a global recession into a global Depression, and possibly see a new economic bloc emerge, a bloc based on excluding the US and minimizing its mischief-making potential.
You are right, China is the key. And China respects only strength. The next President should call in the Chinese Ambassador and tell him that North Korea is China’s problem. And that if China is unwilling to solve the problem that the US will have no choice but to restore balance to East Asia by offering nuclear technology to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. The Chinese would find a solution.
The only way Washington will ever positively influence the DPRK is when that horrid place experiences total collapse. They will always get the better of Washington until the State Department realizes that the “most powerful nation in history” can do nothing to influence a regime that is willing to starve its citizens and tolerate all other manor of deprivation in order to maintain power. Direct military confrontation is out of the question unless we are willing to risk the near total destruction of South Korea and war with China. And the carrot and stick diplomacy characteristic of the last eight years results only in the loss of the carrot. Kim Jong Il is an expert at showing compliance with Western demands while he pushes his real agenda underground.
And, realistically, why should we expect China to intervene with the North on our behalf when it is in their interest to maintain the status quo? The DPRK is a reliable ally and neighbor which blunts America’s influence in Asia, which forces America to spend its money and manpower and which regularly frustrates and humiliates the “most powerful nation in history.” The recent Japanese and South Korean toughening stance toward the North is of little concern when it comes to China’s relations with America. North Korea is China’s well-placed pawn in Asian politics.
Perhaps China does need America more than America needs them but America seems to need them a lot. If America puts pressure on Beijing as you suggest we will essentially be pressuring them to expand American influence in Asia. Who know how they will react? They may react belligerently or they may even act like they want to help us. But in the end, they won’t do our bidding.
Until the inevitable collapse of the People’s Paradise our only option that has a chance of success is containment.
How will obama juggle all these foreign issues plus our economy is in the toilet?North Korea has threatened to turn South Korea into debris. Talk similar to Iran about Israel? If McCain wins he can focus on foreign issues, Palin on energy and I hope he makes Mitt Romney Treasury Secretary, he makes Paulson look like a fifth grader.
David Thomson is a wise, wise man. Of course he forgot to mention that Barack Obama punched Jesus in the weiner. But rest assured, he did.
We pressure China too much, they stop buying USA bonds. Interest rate syrockets. USA goes bankrupt. Game over. It’s about money and power, stupid.
Since China seems more than happy to have another nuclear power on its border, perhaps it is time to expand the nuclear neighborhood for Nations the US needs to rely on. Just let China know through back channels that it will soon have a much larger, happier neighborhood of industrial nations that can churn out nuclear devices at a pretty good rate… or they can ‘take care of’ the country they SAVED in the 1950′s from destruction.
‘You broke it, you pay for it.’
That goes for China, too. They wanted the place intatact, now they can pay… or maybe just use some of their pressure on fuel and food on NoKo and finally get it to understand that it is wholly dependent upon China’s good will.
Yes, a nuclear neighborhood of accountable nations looks real nice. China has no problems when that neighborhood expands to an unaccountable nation, so they should have zero qualms now… right?
g miller, China cannot stop buying Amnerican debt unless it decides to stop exporting to America. That is something the Chinese, with an export-led economy extraordinarily dependent on the United States, cannot do.
Why? Last year all but US$5.9 billion of China’s overall trade surplus of US$262.2 billion related to sales to the United States.
By the way, the Chinese do us no favors by lending us money so that we can go further into debt. It’s time we unwind this unsustainable relationship.