Dems Counting 2010 Chickens with Egg on Their Face
“Where is the wave?” sneers Washington Monthly’s Steve Benen. Indeed, with the loss of Republican Tim Burns to Democrat Mark Critz in the special election to fill out the remaining seven months of John Murtha’s term, liberal partisans injected conventional wisdom with steroids in order to wildly spin their way into making us believe that the loss in PA-12 means that the GOP wave has crested and talk of massive losses in November is poppycock.
This is the only district in the country that backed Kerry in 2004, but McCain in 2008, suggesting it was trending heavily in the GOP’s direction. If there’s going to be a backlash against Dems right now, this should be the place to find it. Indeed, it was the bulk of Burns’ platform — he specifically ran against Washington, Speaker Pelosi, and the Obama presidency, a pitch Republicans intend to duplicate in other competitive districts through the fall.
And while polls showed Burns with a slight edge going into the election, Critz nevertheless won fairly easily.
It should be noted that McCain won the 12th by a razor-thin margin, largely due to the strong pro-life bent of district voters. It should also be noted that Murtha more than likely helped carry Kerry to a narrow victory in 2004, as he ran unopposed in that election — an election that occurred before much of Murtha’s sleaze became generally known and where he had been a wildly popular political figure for a generation. It has usually been a toss-up district in the last five presidential elections, reflecting a nearly 2-1 Democratic registration advantage offset by the conservative social bent of residents. In other words, trying to draw a conclusion about any “trending” the district may be undergoing is an exercise in futility.
Really now, what the heck is Benen celebrating? The Democratic winner angrily denounced Burns for suggesting he would have voted for ObamaCare. Critz is also in opposition to much of the Obama/Pelosi agenda. In short, you had two candidates who got 100% of the vote who opposed health care reform, oppose cap and trade, and are pro-life and pro-gun.
Sounds like a real big win for Democrats.
Neither was it a win for Republicans, however. There have been seven special elections to fill congressional seats since President Obama took office, and the Democrats have now won all seven. In each race, the GOP’s strategy rested on nationalizing the contest by trying to tie the Democrat to the policies and personality of Nancy Pelosi and (later) President Obama. At the time, it seemed the best way to tap into voter anger over spending, health care reform, bailouts, and the whole mess that people are fed up with in Washington. Clearly, this tack has not been a productive one, and the GOP better go back to the drawing board and refine their line of attack.
In hindsight, big Republican wins in governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey as well as Scott Brown’s upset Senate win in Massachusetts can perhaps be better attributed to the lack of quality opposition and local concerns rather than a generic test of strength against the president and the speaker. National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) agrees, saying that the GOP “will take the lessons learned from this campaign and move forward in preparation for November.” He also pointed out that it seems pretty clear that the Democrats will seek to co-opt Republican issues in many districts by having their candidates run away from the liberal agenda of Obama/Pelosi and embrace more moderate positions in hopes of deflecting criticism.
Good luck with that. House Democrats running in November will not have the luxury of running against ObamaCare — not when they voted for it. And even if the Senate refuses to take up cap and trade this year, House Democrats voted overwhelmingly for it last year. Those two votes, along with bailouts and government takeovers, will matter more than any re-branding the incumbents will attempt this fall as voters assess which candidate to choose.
The voters may be less angry by November than they were a month ago. Republican enthusiasm may not be quite as high as it has been come election day. But with miserable jobs numbers expected well into next year — experts are predicting an unemployment rate over 10% — the pitchforks will be out in strength across much of the country and it will largely be Democrats who will be gored as a result.
Critz also benefited from a heavily contested Democrat primary, Specter vs. Sestak, which drew many more Democrats to the polls than Republicans.
Also, Critz (a former Murtha staffer) ran in a highly gerrymandered district; PA-12, designed by Dems, looks like nothing so much as a Greater Eastern Dragon, the kind with no wings that still somehow manages to fly.
Furthermore, he ran to the right of Burns on issues like gun control, abortion, and Obama’s stimulus and health care “initiatives”. This played well enough with independents to get him his old boss’ seat- but it’s unlikely to make him popular with Pelosi & Co. when he’s actually sworn in.
At which point he will have a choice. He can stick to his platform, and royally honk off the Party leadership, who will then support someone else against him in November. Or, he can toe the mark, “shut up and sing”, and be a good little Obamatron for the next six and a half months- at which point the people who sent him to DC might just give him a one-way ticket back out again.
Critz will be interesting to watch between now and November.
clear ether
eon
Yeah, we’ll see what the District really thinks in the November rematch.
Mr. Moran:
Good question!!
Come November, the effects of the crashing Euro and mounting US debt will balance out any normal gains that we might expect at this stage of recovery from a recession. Mortgage defaults are still occurring in large numbers and will continue into the foreseeable future. The commercial property crash has not happened yet, but it is only a matter of time. Small businesses are stalled. Numerous people will realize, by then that they are going to lose their health care plans, but the reality will not have set in.
The political and economic scene will not be much different then. Nothing changes until we hit the wall and crash, which is a few (not many) years off. Unless Cap and Trade is passed, or Congress succeeds in converting private 401(k) and IRAs into a government controlled annuity plan. Then all bets are off.
So it is the Republicans game to loose, and you can depend on them to put in a lackluster effort. Rather than a hundred seat sweep, it will be definitely lower. Massive, but not as massive as it could be.
The flip side will be the ever increasing ground swell for return to Constitutional principles, at the grass roots. Even more new conservative candidates will emerge. Forget the pundit’s agreement that Paul Rand is acknowledged the leader of the Tea Parties ( If wishers were horses….). There is no such thing, as he will find out.
“So it is the Republicans game to loose . . . .”
Misuse of the word “loose” aside, that’s a fair statement. Republicans shouldn’t be counting their chickens just yet, either. All R candidates should be out there shaking hands, kissing babies, making the rubber chicken circuit, passing out nail files, etc. Republican candidates should take nothing for granted and not be arrogant or condescending, as those things will defeat a candidate, regardless of party affiliation. Arkansas had 8 R candidates in its Senate primary yesterday; 7 are now gone.
Like with Mass. the national t-party/gop comes in and starts calling the local guys names without doing their homework. Jack Murtha was a respected Marine, not a sleazy politician. It is ok to voice an opinion, but you have to show some civility. Pennsylvania is not some hootinany state, but rather, like NY and MA, it is a state where the people are hard working and educated. The GOP and T party has to come in with something other than cheap flags and complaints. Soon they will realize that they have to learn to light a candle, rather than always cursing the darkness in order to win an election in states like these. Or fail. Nice article, thanks.
No wonder you’re poor, citizen. Or should I call you Skeeziks?
If you think Murtha wasn’t sleazy, just look at this list of Murtha scandals*.
Of course, as Democrats go, he’s not quite the worst, but that doesn’t mean that he wasn’t still pondscum.
As for his service, that doesn’t cover his later ethical issues, nor is it automatically a reason for supporting him… and, I highly doubt that you supported authentic war hero and former POW John McCain over your self-anointed secular messiah Barack Obama, so you can quit clutching that straw, cause it won’t hold you or Murtha up.
*Before you start denigrating the source of those articles, may I point out that website’s managing editor is a former editor of the New York Times, the Bible of leftist-liberalism?
So much for that conservative wave indeed. If the GOP can’t peck off low hanging fruit swing districts like PA 12 how do they expect to retake control of congress in 2010? I’m beginning to think that these “we’re gonna kick your butt in November” teabagger types are a lot like my “I’m a lion – grrr” nephew. Prediction: the GOP will gain some seats in November, as expected for the party that does not occupy the White House, but they will not win enough to gain control. Get used to Speaker Pelosi.
The teabaggers represent the alarm cry of a decreasing demographic. As old white conservatives die off they are being systematically replaced with young liberals and people of color. November is hardly going to be a cake walk for the GOP and they know it. The only people who don’t are the dumb chest pounding teabaggers who thrive off the talking points loop in their own echo chamber. See you in November. You betcha (wink)!
Low-hanging fruit?
Try looking at the facts instead of the talking points. McCain only carried that district by 900 or so votes in 2008, that’s hardly “low-hanging fruit” for the GOP.
But, feel free to cling to that one last straw… it will make it that much more satisfying for us conservatives, and that much more devastating for you lefties when we retake the House in November.
I’m already bracing myself for another round of “stole the election” whining.
It’s gonna be a rough eight-years for you people. I’d stock up on blood pressure medicine. I can almost hear the gaskets bursting in 2010 and 2012.
I recall your prediction about how the republicans would have 8 years to get used to the type of shellacking they were going to take over Ted Kennedy’s old seat. What was it? Ah, right, the voters representing the smart liberal state of Mass would sing the Obama song. No question in your mind.
How’d that work out for you?
Oh please! Scotty Brown is falling in line with the likes of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins! He knows what he has to do to survive. You can be satisfied with the little R by the name but my guess is that he will continue to evolve leftwards politically and vote wise as he reelection approaches. Moreover, you fail to recognize what I do. As much as it would have been nice for a Dem to keep the seat Martha Ciakley ran a horrible campaign. She deserved to lose. If Scott Brown become a reliable Democratic vote I could care less what letter he has by his name! LOL. Try again.
Speaking of Scott Brown. He falling in line just fine. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/05/brown-says-hell-likely-vote-for-wall-street-reform.php?ref=fpblg
Yep, and all the gaskets will be at MS-National-Barack-Channel, CNN, and the rest of the leftymedia.
Consider… in PA-12 the Dems have far, far higher registration than the GOP… 62% of the voters there last nite were Democrats, as opposed to 34% Republican. However, the totals that I have seen show Critz (D) winning 71,684 votes to Burns’ 59,476. In other words, approximately 17% of the Democratic-registered voters voted for the Republican in PA-12!
Now, in a district as heavily Democratic as PA-12, you Donkeys can survive that… but how many districts are that heavily Dem?
Or you can just stick your fingers in your ears and sing “Lalalalalalalalalalala” if you want.
Not to mention the RNC dumped a boatload of cash (that they don’t have) into this race. They really thought they could pull it out. They didn’t. It is interesting to note, while on the subject of cash, that the Dems have more than the GOP and by the time Nov. rolls around a whole lot more. Money doesn’t win elections but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Get ready for a pounding.
7 for 7 doesn’t sound like no wave to me.
In regrads to your ‘Oh please! Scotty Brown is falling in line with…’ dodge.
The question was not whether you can find some way to comfort yourself over Brown’s election. I’m absolutely sure you can, because that’s the way a mind divorced from reality works.
The question was how did your sure, firm prediction that Mass would reject Scott Brown and vote in a liberal democrat work out. You maintained that Mass was too smart not to.
Since you made that prediction based on little more than an expectation of blue sky wish fulfillment as far as any supporting rationale goes, we can assume that that is your operating mode.
So..why should anyone place any more value than comic relief to any predictions you make about the next 8 years? Given that you provide us no more rationale than your expectation of blue sky wish fulfillment?
The reality is Mr. Brown is voting with the Democrats on key issues and that’s fine by me. Deal with it.
The reality is that everybody expected him to. He said that he was going to during the campaign.
The reality is that you are desperately trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill.
The question is, will you ever make a statement that is both true and relevant?
The teabaggers represent the alarm cry of a decreasing demographic. As old white conservatives die off they are being systematically replaced with young liberals and people of color.
As much as I’d like to see the GOP win and win big, this is a continuing problem with the GOP as defined by the tea party supporter types, social conservatives, and the assorted/sundry far right types that make up this place. My interest in PJM is simply to learn enough about the far right, what sorts of arguments they use. It’s sad and funny that the denizens here see me (right centrist) as being as left wing as they can get. Meanwhile my Obama voter friends are unable to distinguish the center right from Jerry Falwell or some of the tea party types here. Weird how that works.
You do have a good point here, and echo one I’ve made before: the social conservatives etc are dying off, being over-represented by aging and angry whites. Just as church attendance is slowly ebbing away, even in the US, so too is conservatism as defined here. There are fewer ready and willing new young conservatives every year.
Meanwhile the GOP has been winning for the past 20 years and the conservatives seem to have reached the astonishing conclusion that it is because of far right conservatism — it’s hubris writ large. The reality is that it’s the center right winning those elections. The lay of the land as I see it is that the electorate wants centrism, not tea party conservatism. The GOP needs to be careful here. Push too many tea partiers and they risk losing big.
I suspect your view as to what constitutes “conservative as defined here” is probably as uni-dimensional as that which you claim your “Obama voter friends” seem to have. A lot of people on the leftward side of politics today cling to the notion that the only forces animating the conservative movement right now are evangelicals and zealous anti-abortionists. They couldn’t be more wrong.
And that impression is carefully crafted by a media largely in favor of any image that will aid GOP losses and a hapless GOP that picks the most inopportune moments to believe what the media says about them.
Americans, by and large, seem to support fiscal and judicial conservatism (in increasing quantities) and social moderation (as opposed to social conservatism). Indeed, the social conservatives and evangelicals would still be Jimmy Carter Democrats were it not for the abortion issue (I’m not even going to include gay rights in that as I don’t think the GOP and Dems have articulated official positions different enough from each other to warrant it).
A group that wants to use the might of the federal government to enforce compliance with their vision of morality on the whole country are big-government, statist, social-engineering progressives regardless of whether they’re trying to enforce “traditional values” or liberal ones.
“…the social conservatives etc are dying off, being over-represented by aging and angry whites. Just as church attendance is slowly ebbing away, even in the US, so too is conservatism as defined here. There are fewer ready and willing new young conservatives every year…”
G.L. I’m a tea partier. In fact, I run a statewide tea party (of sorts)….the Missouri Sovereignty Project. (www.mosov.org). By your observations above (and Praetorin’s earlier) one wonders whether you have been to a tea party or two. As you would expect, I have. I can assure you that your conclusion about aging, angry whites is way off the mark. You and Praetorian should understand that it is of no consequence to us that you and he/she have drawn these conclusions. In fact, from our perspective, it is better that you have. In warfare surprise is the greatest weapon. We WILL see you in November.
You rock.
I can assure you that your conclusion about aging, angry whites is way off the mark.
I’m thinking you don’t grasp the concept of “skewed.” Polls suggest (and have done so for a very long time) that hard right conservative ranks are indeed skewed toward aging whites. Polls also show that the “hard right” (PJM) message tends to be regionally skewed to the southeast of the country, which of course is the basis D Frum et al use to posit that the GOP is in danger of becoming a regional party. I certainly didn’t make that up. PJM style conservatives are not even the majority voice of the GOP, much less the electorate, although they/you certainly appear to be the loudest.
Schools are graduating N million kids this year, of which the majority aren’t conservatives — nor are they likely to be — at least as the term is understood here. Meanwhile the “conservative” ranks are thinning even as the ranks of the non-conservatives swell. More people than ever are entering the voting pool and far right conservatives are the only group with a percentage that is SHRINKING.
And they OUGHT to shrink: the social conservatives have never been right about anything. Separation of church and state? Evolution? Abortion? The social conservatives have lost every time. There is no reason to think that whatever side the social conservatives pick now will suddenly and magically turn out to be a winner. The social conservatives have NEVER been on the winning side of anything, and this is a trend that will continue. Oh, and note that social conservatives like tea parties.
Your tea party attendees are also skewed to aging angry whites (polls show a significant percentage of tea partiers are retirees.) Maybe it’s me but I don’t see how it’s difficult to rouse the rabble a bit using a “we pay too much tax” message on april 15th. Obviously everyone reckons they pay too much tax. And yet despite the populist appeal tea parties tend to be small events and not representative of the voting public.
The enemy of the average GOP voter isn’t the left. It’s the noisy far right. This is what prevents the GOP from getting traction and winning contests that the left has no business winning.
What polls? Huffpo polls?
You seem to have donned the mantle as the most strident critic here of “far-right conservatism” as being practiced by angry, geriatric tea party attendees who are quickly trailing off into the demographic dustbin. (I’m of course paraphrasing what you’ve been writing here). OK, so now we all get how “even-handed” you are by criticizing your beloved GOP.
Rather than just go on for days telling everyone here how stupid and misguided they all are, why not enlighten us by sharing YOUR set of conservative principles that you think should form the core of conservative political thought today?
On that “we WILL see you in November” thing. Don’t forget your Medicare sponsored oxygen tank and walker. Rand Paul already sealed his fate with his recent comments on repealing the Civil Rights Act and the rest of the teabaggers can be expected to follow suit and implode.
This is how American politics deals with extremism. American politics plunders its extremists, taking from them anything of value and leaving them nothing in exchange, not even gratitude. See, what simpletons like you fail to understand is that political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an excessively simple diagnosis of the world’s ills and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all.
“…See, what simpletons like you fail to understand is that political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an excessively simple diagnosis of the world’s ills and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all.”
I’d say that pretty well sums up the methods you’ve employed to analyze the resurgence of conservative political thought. By the way, very apt moniker you’ve adopted Praetorian: the protector of the emperor.
Not on oxygen yet. Walker? A bit closer; I’ve got a bum ankle (arthritis-sp?). Extremist? Let’s see: served in the A.F. in Vietnam, been married to the same marvelous women for over 40 years, got two kids and two grandkids. Love the Constitution and will go down fighting to defend it.
How ’bout you there Praetorian? What are your qualifications for being an extremist?
GL has a long history of seeing what he wants to see.
He’s convinced that all conservatives are old white guys, so that’s all he lets himself see.
The fact that surveys of tea party attenders doesn’t come close to his perception will never be allowed to penetrate to his cognative centers. Assuming they still work after so many years of inactivity.
Over on once of the AGW threads, GL declared that he was as willing to go after those who made ridiculous statements in favor of AGW as he was those who made what he believed to be ridiculous statements against it.
The problem was, right below the sub-thread where he made this declaration, was a post, made hours before GL made this declaration, making some of the most ridiculous statements in favor of AGW I have ever seen.
There was no GL post to be found.
GL says many things that are demonstratably not true.
This claim of his that he would love to see the GOP win big, falls into this category.
Kind of reminds me of Lazar, who alway whines about his posts being censored, and to prove it, he posts out copies of the posts he claims were censored.
It isn’t about clinging to old fashioned population conditioning and the old dialectic of left and right. It’s about the survival of Western civilisation. Our survival requires a reactionary conservative approach to change. As opposed to the undergraduate thinking of affirmative action rangers led by Doctor Utopia.
“The teabaggers represent the alarm cry of a decreasing demographic. As old white conservatives die off they are being systematically replaced with young liberals and people of color. November is hardly going to be a cake walk for the GOP and they know it.”
Well, not exactly. The young folks are all unemployed, and many persons of color are reducing their ranks by killing each other in gangs and aborting their babies. Just sayin’
Have you ever managed to wonder away from your talking points long enough to actually deal with the issues at hand?
Substantive arguements have been made as to why Critz winning in this election is not very meaningfull. Would you for once care to deal with these arguments, or is repeating today’s talking points the limits of your rhetorical abilities?
The Democrat primary out polled the Republican primary by over 100,000 votes. What are the odds that those who vote in a Democrat primary are more likely to vote for a Democrat in an election that is on both ballots than are Republican primary voters?
In Nov, the voting breakdown between Dem and Rep is much more even. Will see whether a 52% win will hold up.
“Critz is also in opposition to much of the Obama/Pelosi agenda. In short, you had two candidates who got 100% of the vote who opposed health care reform, oppose cap and trade, and are pro-life and pro-gun.” However, Critz will caucus with those who are completely opposed to him (i.e., Obama/Pelosi)on everyone of these issues. Thus, Critz will fall in line and the the majority of the people in the 12th District of PA essentially voted for the status quo. The status quo in Democratic controlled and oppressed Southwestern PA is high unemployment, no industry or wealth creation, a continuing outflow of the younger population, and the basic perpetual economic malaise of all other Democratic rust buckets. But hey, it’s union country so what else would you expect.
Make sense of it how you must. It hurts doesn’t it? But you can bet we never would have heard the end of it had Burns pulled it out, right? Have to take you guys with a grain of salt. LOL.
Have you ever met up with reality?
I don’t know, does it hurt? Does it hurt that a Dem took a seat that had been Dem for quite some time in a special election? Hurt? Strikes me more as a victory for the status quo. Not good for the GOP, but no actual change.
But tell me about pain, if you can. Tell me how it feels when a Republican takes a seat that has ben Dem for 20 years in a special election. In a district that is the birthplace/boyhood home of the sitting President. Tell me how you feel about the Djou election in Hawaii.
[quote]Jack Murtha was a respected Marine, not a sleazy politician. It is ok to voice an opinion, but you have to show some civility.[/quote]
Correction. Murtha was a respected marine, and is a sleazy politician. One does not excuse the other.
correction, he was a sleazy politician. Right now he’s worm food.
rather than identify the nature of the Dem candidate, tie him/her with Pelosi/Reid/Obama, etc, why don’t we try something novel—
RUN A CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE WHO PROUDLY AND PUBLICLY REPEATS HIS OWN CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES?!?!?! If Critz was to the right of Burns on ANYTHING, it’s Burns’ fault. Or ours, for not running a real CONSERVATIVE for that office. Hopefully, Burns will learn from this…
Of course, anyone who wins that way will then have to live UP to those principles..
heh, what was I thinking? Never mind. Just keep trying to tar the other guy. Never mind that a substantial minority, and a majority in certain districts, WANTS what Obama is handing out…
Limbaugh says “conservatism wins every time it’s tried”. He’s right. It just isn’t tried often enough for me.
So obvious. The people who write about what other people actually do – in this case worthless scribblers on the radical left – will of course take a victory and turn it into Actium.
Relax. It’s not even worth a response.
I was born in the former Spangler – and have many relatives still running in the ridges that make up PA-12. Yes John Murtha was once a beloved congressman. Ten years ago Poor Citizens comment would have merit. But Murtha faced a difficult re-election in his last run before he passed – and his star had long past faded. His Iraq war stance (particularly his attempts to turn what amounted to a minor event in Haditha into the equivalent of My Lai) and the later day ethical charges tainted his once pristine record.
It hurts to admit as much but of all people BILL CLINTON seems to have provided a vital push just a few days before V-day.
I talked with an uncle (a devout T-partier in the Indiana chapter near-by) after C-Span ran the local debate between Burns and the eventual winner. This is bedrock social conservative land – and Burns did a pretty respectable job of comming out of no where to make it a race.
It is a both a dissapointment and a bad sign that the Republicans couldn’t take this seat. It shouldn’t have mattered squat that Murtha’s widow or Bill Clinton went to bat for the Dem candidate – a longtime aid chosen to take over. The bread and butter issues were ALL ON OUR SIDE – Pete Sessions better not be the only higher up mapping a plan for the mid-terms who paid attention to what happened here.
Where was the house leadership in giving Burns some heavy-weight help to pull off the win? Kuddo’s for matching the Dems for funds spent – zero for failing to put credible folks on the stump for Burns. He should have been a perfect candidate for this cycle – a successful business man, runinng to make a difference in a district he’s lived in for many years (as opposed to furthering his political career),who had the issues down cold.
This district should have been low hanging fruit.
Rick, you wrote, “…The voters may be less angry by November than they were a month ago..”. Perhaps not. Take a look at this column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7730964/Forget-the-wolf-pack-the-ongoing-euro-crisis-was-caused-by-EMU.html
And this comment in particular, about how some Europeans want to knock the stuffing out of the US dollar:
My best source of German bank information believes firmly that Spethmann’s action will lead to the Euro currenty being split into a Northern Euro and a Latin Euro (aka Club Med Euro disrespectfully). The current Euro currency is not a homogeneous entity. Backing all fiat currencies is debt and the formal bond securities. The different Euro Notes are clearly identifiable by nation, marked by a letter in front of the serial number. The Germany denotation letter is X. My German contact, the banker contact was personally at the table for three days in April where the battle plan was designed, decided, and agreed upon. The risk, if not intrigue, centers on an aspect involved that might constitute high treason by certain politicians and upper level civil servants.
The German banker contact provided a summary after attending certain high level meetings, as impressions with notes were gathered. His steady sharing of information has been very valuable on matters pertaining to gold, currencies, and bank assets in Central Europe. He wrote, “The first complaint unhinged the Lisbon Treaty that only was implemented after we turned it into a Swiss Cheese, except with 1000 times more holes in it than normal, from heavy motions. The actual Lisbon Treaty enacted looks more than having been treated with a double barrel shotgun multiple times. It will not stand the test of time. However, this time there is a juicy component added which deals with criminal elements and high treason committed by high ranking, political government members, and civil servants. With the Greek situation in the crapper and Portugal , Spain , and Italy to follow shortly, it is safe to assume that the constitutional court in Karlsruhe will be more careful in giving the complaint the attention it deserves. The politicians ( Berlin, Brussels, ECB-Ffm) are pretty much defenseless this time and The Group will push them easily over the cliff.
The EURO is toast in its current composition. There will be a Northern Euro made for use by Germany , Netherlands , with Austria and Finland too, split from the Club Med Euro where all the losers will unite. Those Latins must learn to pay for their own keep. Their citizens will not like it. The Northern Euro will eventually be commodity backed with Russia coming into the equation. The route that will be taken is via Helsinki, since in Finland they have all wires in the box already. The remaining piece is connection by German and Russian ‘electricians.’ The entire issue is one of economic survival of the people in the Northern European countries, whose nations have been drained by support of ineffective southern neighbors that has essentially been nothing short of welfare costing $300 to $400 billion annually. Nothing more and nothing less. Furthermore, if NATO is not scrapped, we shall see Russia becoming a full member not before long. [The Polish leader plane crash] will encourage Poland to be more cooperative in the new direction. What is in store is a re-run of history with more modern means. This all quite interesting.”
In an exchange last week, the German banker contact revealed that June 30th of 2011 is the date set in the construction of the Northern Euro, in the documents, in the formal support mechanisms in the FOREX and commodity markets, and in the contractual agreements with member nations tied to their central banks. The new accord will involve more autonomy, enforcement, and activity by member nation central banks in maintaining the balance among the Northern Euro, the Latin Euro, and other major currencies. Gone will be the bureaucratic Euro Central Bank, the centralized body located in Brussels Belgium . Although the German Bundesbank is the lead dog in the EuroCB sled, the central bank has been highly politicized. The new Northern Euro currency will be jointly managed. Strong cooperation has existed for decades between The Netherlands and Germany . The Benelux natios will partner for lead control of the new Euro. Expect the Northern Euro to rise in valuation strongly upon its launch versus the USDollar, something like 20% to 30% over three to six months. Expect the Latin Euro to fall in valuation, something like 20% to 50%, really, over three to six months. Pay close attention to the role played by Russia and Gold in the Northern Euro currency in the plan.
THE NEW NORTHERN EURO WILL EMERGE FROM THE EXISTING EURO CURRENCY, BUT WITH A GOLD COMPONENT. When pressed on the launch date, the German banker said no formal announcements ahead of time are being planned. It is expected in 14 months, with little advanced warning. My view is that crisis events could dictate an earlier launch, or at least more formal news of its imminent launch in order to achieve some greater currency stability. What is really needed is ‘When Issued’ Northern Euro and Latin Euro currency trading vehicles. The new Northern Euro will provide intense, sudden, and powerful competition for the USDollar. When the New Euro arrives, the USDollar will resume its deep long-term decline. The US $ has benefited undeservedly from the Euro distress and disruptions in the perverse and vicious Competing Currency War. When the Northern Euro arrives, especially if it contains key commodity components like gold and crude oil, the US $ will suffer immediately enter a crisis stage. A run on the USTreasury Bond would then be extremely likely. The sequence will define the monetary crisis toward climax.
◄$$$ SOME HALF-BAKED FALSE START WAS REVEALED BY GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL, ON A NEW EURO CURRENCY HATCHED IMMINENTLY. THE KEY TO BE AWARE OF IS MERKEL WALKS AS A LAME DUCK, SOON PHASED OUT. HER ADMINISTRATION DOES NOT CONTROL THE CURRENCY TABLE.
Jim Willie
Lucdog
on May 19, 2010
at 07:35 PM
Shhhh. Just let them keep on thinking that the conservative wave has crested. Might cut down on the desperation-inspired election fraud, in any case.
The GOP is indeed in for some big gains, but BEWARE…
…those who win in November are not SEATED in November…a LOT of damage can be done in two months out of sheer desperation by a Democrat majority with nothing to lose…
I can reasonably forsee the push for a VAT as well as two or three other major pieces of legislation on their wishlist rammed through by a lame-duck Congress…
“oh, you didn’t get re-elected? Well, vote for this and we will make you the Widget Czar or the Ambassador to Insertnamehereistan”
Not a bad year for PA so far. Got rid of two freaks, Murtha and Spector, for the price of one, Clink, or whatever his name is. He is the bluest of blue dogs and will be quite a thorn in the Obamacommies side.
May I state the obvious? A district that for years voted Murtha into office. There probably hasn’t been a politician as openly corrupt and unethical in American history. He didn’t even try to hide it. Because he didn’t have to. It’s a district filled with half wits. Their can be no other explanation. It’s hardly a place, you would use to gauge the sentiment of the country as a hole. To find similar lack of voter intelligence you probably would have to go to a third world country.
This election season has to be the most entertaining I’ve ever witnessed. Neither party has a good handle on what the electorate might do – which seats are safe and which are not.
Certainly Murtha’s seat going to his aid surprised me not at all. But democrats have to be a bit concerned by how close it was given the fact that it is a gerrymandered district front to back and top to bottom – as a reward to Murtha. He was such a reliable CS.
Scot Brown’s election should be a concern for any thinking Dem. Too many have made too little of his win. Blow it off if you like but who’d have thought that an r – even a small r could have taken Kennedy’s ‘seat’? That seat should have been as safe as a virgin in a nunnery for the d’s – and in a more normal year it would have been. But these aren’t normal times and what is happening now will – I predict – continue on for a very long time. This has made the dems and repubs as nervous as a whore in a church. GOOD! Voters are unhappy with the lot of them and are expressing their anger in the best way they can – by voting them out. For different reasons of course – depending on which way they lean but long time insiders are finally getting what they deserve and being shown the stage exit.
It should be very interesting to watch this political hurricane develop and do it’s cleansing. Watching the pundits (MSM) tripping all over themselves as they try to explain it will be even more entertaining. I wonder if they will come up with the right answers?
I doubt they will. And if by some sheer piece of luck they do – will they share that with us? I doubt that it.
Let me say to you what was said above to another poster: YOU ROCK!
I’ve had it with both parties. It’s been too long since we’ve had anything to choose from save the lesser of two evils. Democrat, Republican… I don’t care so long as they promise responsible government and actually work to fulfil that promise.
Define for yourself what responsible government entails and vote accordingly. Blind support for one party or another is a fool’s game.
>>>As much as I’d like to see the GOP win and win big, this is a continuing problem with the GOP as defined by the tea party supporter types, social conservatives, and the assorted/sundry far right types that make up this place. My interest in PJM is simply to learn enough about the far right, what sorts of arguments they use. It’s sad and funny that the denizens here see me (right centrist) as being as left wing as they can get.
Agree. Teapartybell.com features this as one of the top ten articles under category Tea Party
It wasn’t turnout that doomed Burns – Republicans turned out at a higher rate than Democrats in PA-12, there were just too few of them to begin with. The problem was independent/”other” aligned voters did not turn out, they are used to not voting in party primaries in PA, which is a “closed primary” state, and the special election was held concurrent with the primaries.
Will the indies turn out in November with a Tea Party spirit, or will their distaste for Obama/Pelosi reside before then?
Burns is still the underdog in November, but he does have a shot, particularly if Critz casts a few pro-Obama/Pelosi votes between now and then.
‘The reality is Mr. Brown is voting with the Democrats on key issues and that’s fine by me. Deal with it.’
Irrelevant.
The question is whether your usual opining about what we should expect politically in the near future politically has the air of considered thought or expectation of wish fulfillment. Your track record and lack of any discernible knowledgeable or for that matter rational supporting argument for your opinions points to the second conclusion as the right one.
The fact that you continue to dodge the question of how you could have been so wrong in your adamantly held opinion on the outcome of the Mass election also points to wish fulfillment as your driver.
You aren’t particularly special. Far from it. Until you realize that and form some opinions that are knowledge and not regurgitating sophomoric nonsense you won’t grow up. You’ll remain woefully handicapped and an object of at best mild amusement and at worst outright derision in an adult setting like this forum.
That is the reality waiting to smack you upside the head when the warm womb currently nurturing you – I’m guessing sophomore or maybe junior in college – finally spits you out.
Deal with it. Now, or later.
#6 PRAETORIAN; I enjoyed reading your little fantasy;the most psychologically interesting aspect of the political psychosis known as Stalinism(called liberalism in the US),is its inability to stop fantasizing.I particularly enjoyed the unintended irony of your demographic delusion;one of the libtard obsessions :abortion, is leading to a relative decline in libtard numbers vis a vis white conservatives,which explains your obsession with importing brown people to compensate for the libtard dearth.I can see that your parent’s unfortunate refusal to abort you (maybe they needed an increase in their welfare check?), has led to irrational hopes, and deluded expectations.What is it that your dear leader calls it? “hope and change?” You are as hopeless as he is.
21 and 22…..have done you a great favor…”.prae ” In time you will come to understand this….(work on it, understanding)…I suspect you are of good heart and will one day be a responsible capable participant in forums far and wide. Still,sarcasm does not serve the vacuous well..wisdom and tolerance might be a better choice for you.
#23 Please tell your special needs teacher to work on your writing skills. An incoherent recitation of insincere ,pious, cliches, serves only to make the mentally diaabled look ridiculous.Pretension does not serve the stupid well;however,a career in homeless welfare dependence,NOT blogs,might be a better choice for you.