David Cameron Likely Britain’s Next PM, But He May Yet Blow the Chance
At the Conservative Party conference in Manchester, UK, leader David Cameron announced his interest in becoming the UK’s next prime minister come the general election. It’s not far off, as it has to occur by the first week in May 2010, and it is pretty clear that Labour under their current leader will not win. This past set of “party conferences” are the last ones, for all parties, until the general election.
Cameron needed to deliver the speech of his career. For the most part, observers — especially those more aligned to the party — agree that he delivered what he needed. His political opponents are apoplectic about his “attack on the state,” as one would expect.
The conventional wisdom now predicts David Cameron and his party will storm to a huge victory in the elections, whenever they might occur. However, there are some factors that may urge caution.
Labour might change leaders between now and the election. They know that Gordon Brown, barring a miracle, would go down to a crushing defeat and cost many a Labour MP his seat. Their clamoring for change was mostly pacified at their party conference, but as their doom looms larger and larger, it seems hard to believe they will not attempt to rid themselves of the loathed Brown.
There is no guarantee that any other leader would win the general election and keep Labour in power — in fact, it is almost certain they would not. However, a new leader might be able to significantly reduce the majority held by David Cameron. It is even possible that there might be a “hung” parliament, where no party has overall control. This would bring up the possibility of a “minority” government, which are notoriously weak. Worse, it could lead to a “coalition” government made up of everyone who wants to keep the Conservatives out of government.
There is another problem for Cameron. While his speech riled his activists, it did not necessarily have the same effect on the populace. In fact, over the course of the Conservative Party conference the Conservative lead in the polls was reduced.
There are several factors that might have caused this. Cameron has a very hard time appealing to the working class of the UK. What many people remember is that Margaret Thatcher, another prime minister who came in after a run of Labour government, appealed to the working classes. Some of her appeal came from her humble background. (Thatcher is the daughter of a green grocer.)
Cameron, on the other hand, is straight from the pages of P. G. Wodehouse. While at Oxford, he was a member — along with Shadow Chancellor George Osborne and London Mayor Boris Johnson — of the ultra-exclusive Bullingdon Club. (A good comparison would be the Skull & Bones secret society at Yale.) He is a direct descendant of Queen Victoria’s uncle, King William IV, and his mother was the daughter of a baronet.
So, this is what passes for a Conservative in Britain? Raising taxes? How stupid is that?
If you are a Lord, one might as well BE a Lord! I thought the Brits loved their Royalty? They sure were ga-ga over some of them, anyway. Go all out with pomp and circumstance. And leave the beer alone, dumbass!
Clearly, he’s a result of much inbreeding.
He might not be Brown and Labour, but he sure looks like Blair and New Labour! When Blair replaced Major, we got “blajorism”. Now we are going to get Blairmeron. Nothing is going to change much – including the American war in Afghanistan, so we might as well stick with Brown.
Haven’t they heard the term “Joe six pack”? And not to mess with him.
I can’t see the likes of this Cameron reversing or even significantly winding back Labour policies. So Labour would be well pleased if they were just able to limit the damage and remain a viable chance for the subsequent election.
“His only “hook” at this point is that he is “not Brown and not Labour.””
Well to be fair the “not Bush and not Repulican” hauled Obama over the finishing line last November. All Cameron needs to do now is learn how to lie to the electorate like Obama and he’s home free.
David “Squish” Cameron is, sadly, no Conservative and,tragically, no Margaret Thatcher.
Another article that says more how every nook and cranny of Britain has been infected by Cultural Marxism. The only ones who get it half right are
some blokes in the pub who are either too drunk or too uncouth to submit to the emotional paralysis gripping the nation. These guys are the heart of the BNP..they need better leadership but do they need more political sophistication..the kind that leads back into the morass of Cameron and Brown?
He has already betrayed a promise on Europe and the activists are not happy.
I only have one stupid question. The big issue the BNP is making hay over is “keeping England English”. I have not seen nary a peep about anything to satisfy the pint-drinking workers who are now running to the BNP because there is nowhere else to go.
Is this guy Cameron running to quieten a suburb? No late drinking at night? Is that his campaign as the head of a 4th rate power in Europe? That is what mayors run on when they run for office in ‘Afula!
@Andrew:
No, he hasn’t betrayed them.
He promised the impossible and it’s clear he has no plan at all for what happens next when Klaus sign the treaty. And he believed he would getting away with it because he didn’t think that it would happen, and it gets even worse:
The Tories really believe that they will hold referendum and then use this as an argument to repatriate powers from the EU back to the UK.
And for their next trick, they’ll convert the Taliban to Shintoism…
The BNP peels votes away from Labour, not the Tories. They are only “right wing” in the sense that it means “things the press doesn’t like.”
Anyhow, Cameron is a dreadful candidate. Definitely more Blair than Thatcher.
Cameron always struck me as kinda corn-fed and smug, but I didn’t know his blood is so blue. Does the UK need the kind of PM that Prince/King Charles would be comfortable with?
According to the Telegraph:
Mr Cameron gave voters an “cast-iron” promise in 2007 that a Conservative government would hold a popular vote on Lisbon. (p)And, in May this year, he said: “A progressive reform agenda demands that we redistribute power from the EU to Britain and from judges to the people. We will therefore hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.”
Cast-iron promise…
In 1988 an American blue-blood said “read my lips” and then reneged. We know how that worked out for him.
you don’t mention the European issue and the Lisbon treaty once – which is what will sink Cameron – he is losing his right wing supporters who will abstain of vote UKIP. We have no interest in electing the “heir to Blair,” thank you.
You are spot on, the election isn’t in the bag for the Tories, at all.
There are virtually no libertarian, small-state conservatives left in Britain. Certainly not nearly enough to get a government elected. It is hard for the few left, like me, to discern much difference between Conservative Party nanny-statism and Labour party nanny-statism. I’m reading Atlas Shrugged at the moment, and you can take quotes from the newspapers here, and paste them straight into the book!
How can anyone guarantee that this higher tax on beer isn’t a strategy to appease mahoundians like former dope-addict Anjem Choudary?
@9 Ruvy,
If Cameron does not shape up the main benefactors are likely to be UKIP (UK Independence Party), nationalist without the racist taint of the BNP. If the classic Liberals at the core of the Liberal Democrats assert themselves againt the politically correct social democrats in the party they could still do well at the Conseratives expense too.
The Conservative Party is as worthless as the GOP.
Cameron needs to face up to the fact that there can be no negotiation, no talks with the EU. The only way we will ever regain any sovereignty from Brussels is to state outright that we will be rolling back Lisbon, rolling back Maastricht, and engaging with the EU solely as members of a trade body.
Until that date, my vote belongs to the UKIP.
#6 Brownie is absolutely correct. Cameron doesn’t have the balls needed to be Prime Minister. In the face of any resistance he’ll fold like a cheap suitcase.
Lady Thatcher would call him a “wet”. Lady Thatcher would be right.
This just in: Dan Hannan resigns his EU post in protest and plans to juke far right.
THIS will get interesting.
Can’t do links? Well, it’s on the front page of the Telegraph.
Is Andrew Ian Dodge suggesting that “The Plan” which has been communicated for months by Daniel Hannan is geared only to the elites?
To ignore that is to say, “We don’t agree with it”.
The party really controlling Britain is called
the BBC Party. Its not elected, it answers to no one. It has an absolute monopoly on the means
of communication and its final end like all totalitarians is to keep itself in power forever.
This was the solution to a dozen years of Tory exile, they need someone as ruthless as Francis
Urquart, not this Heath for the ’10s
From the look of it, the Conservatives should rename themselves the Labour-Lites.
“Is Andrew Ian Dodge suggesting that “The Plan” which has been communicated for months by Daniel Hannan is geared only to the elites?”
Um, did I say that? I think The Plan is a great book of ideas, but I rather doubt Cameron will be too keen to implement many of them.
As a supporter of David Davies when he ran against Cameron for leader; I think our points about Cameron have been proven. He is a Blair Mark II with even less spine.
I think will be saying soon.
Obama= Carter II, as Cameron= Heath II
Well, Andrew, I have been checking Daniel Hannan’s blog, over at http://www.hannan.co.uk and it is reasonable to conclude that anyone who views being contrarian to the views of the MSM is backing him.
If I were in the United States, (I’m in Canada, by the way), I would be part
of the Tea Party Movement. I joined the Reform Party of Canada in July, 1990 which shows my maverick, contrarian side, and it was a precursor to the Tea Party Movement.
Plus, when you have Conservative Members of Parliament like Michael Gove, in
caucus, you can be sure that Gove & Hannan are not alone in the British Conservative Party in righting Albion. After all, Daniel Hannan, in my view, has the most credibility amongst English speaking politicians whose politics are right of centre. His 3 minute rebuttal of Gordon Brown, which
went viral on youtube, cinched it for me.
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