Congressional Dem Incumbents: Who Are the Most Vulnerable?
The betting site Intrade gives Republicans a better than 50% chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate after the November elections. After picking up seven Senate seats in 2010 — including Scott Brown’s victory in the Massachusetts special election — the GOP needs a net four seats to assure control after 2012. If the Republicans regain the White House, a net gain of three would be sufficient as the vice president serves as tiebreaker.
Twenty-three of the 33 Senate seats being contested in 2012 are presently held by Democrats. Of that number, 12 seats currently held by Democrats are potentially at risk. Seven of these 12 are open-seat races with the Democratic senator retiring. The seven seats: North Dakota and Nebraska (where the GOP candidate is favored); Virginia and Wisconsin (which are considered tossups); and Connecticut, Hawaii, and New Mexico (which are currently rated as leaning Democratic). New Mexico looks the closest of the three.
The five Democratic incumbents at greatest risk of losing their seats, starting with the most vulnerable: Claire McCaskill (Missouri), Jon Tester (Montana), Bill Nelson (Florida), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), and Debbie Stabenow (Michigan).
It is more difficult to oust an incumbent than to win an open-seat race, whether for the Senate or the House. This is particularly true for the Senate, where incumbents have six years to build up a re-election war chest and build ties with the state’s voters. That said, the most vulnerable incumbents tend to be first-termers, and McCaskill, Tester, and Brown all fall in that category. All three won office in 2006, a very big year for Democrats around the country. McCaskill and Tester won very narrow victories: Tester by 1% (3,500 votes); McCaskill by 3% (48,000 votes). Nelson and Stabenow are both in their second term and neither faced a serious challenge in 2006.
McCaskill appears to be in the biggest trouble of any incumbent of either party. She trails all of her potential rivals on the Republican side, and the biggest gap is with Sarah Steelman, who currently leads the GOP contest for the Senate nomination. Missouri has also trended Republican in the last decade. It was the only Bush state of ten targeted by the Obama campaign that McCain won. The GOP won by huge margins in the governor and Senate races in 2010.
Jon Tester is also trailing by a small margin in Montana, where he is running against GOP House member Denny Rehberg, who has also won statewide elections (Montana has only one U.S. House seat). Montana was carried by McCain by 3% in 2008, but recent polls show Romney ahead of Obama by a bigger margin this year.
Ohio is a race in which the Democrats did not expect a fight, but that is no longer the case. Josh Mandel — a 34-year-old Iraq war veteran and Ohio treasurer who won decisively in a statewide race in 2010 — is a tireless campaigner. He has begun to close the gap with Brown, and is tied with him in one poll of likely voters. Brown remains the favorite.
Ohio will get a lot of attention in the presidential race. If Romney carries the state (essential to his chances of winning), that would boost Mandel’s chances, as would Romney picking Senator Rob Portman as his VP choice.
In Florida, polls are all over the place but Nelson is ahead of all possible opponents. His lead is smallest against Congressman Connie Mack, the likely winner of the GOP nomination. Florida is another tossup state for the presidential race — a state that is slightly more conservative than Ohio — and Mack has a near 50% chance of winning. Just as in Ohio, Mack would benefit if Romney chose Florida Senator Marco Rubio to be his running mate.
Michigan appears to be the safest state for the Democrats of the five contests on this list. Stabenow has held a lead over former Congressman Pete Hoekstra in every poll so far, though a few surveys give her a lead in the mid-single digits. Michigan is expected to be a strong state for President Obama despite GOP success in 2010, and this should help Stabenow.
Picking the five most endangered Democratic House members is easier than doing the same for the Republicans, given the large number of first-term Republicans in the House. Larry Sabato, who has done the most systematic review of all the new districts and races, gives the GOP the edge in five open seats now held by Democrats, but in only four races with Democratic incumbents: John Barrow (Georgia 12), Leonard Boswell (Iowa 3), Larry Kissell (North Carolina 8), and Kathy Hochul (New York 27). Three other Democratic incumbents are considered to be in tossup races: Mike McIntyre (North Carolina 7), Jim Matheson (Utah 4), and David Cicilline (Rhode Island 1).
Overall, Sabato says the GOP is ahead in 235 races, the Democrats in 187, with 13 tossups — not a scenario seven months out from election day that would suggest Nancy Pelosi will soon be speaker again.
The Republicans controlled the redistricting process in North Carolina, and did to the Democrats what Mike Madigan and the Democrats did to sitting GOP House members in Illinois. Four of the six House seats held by the GOP that now lean to the Democrats are in Illinois. Three of the nine House seats held by the Democrats that lean to the GOP are in North Carolina, with McIntyre’s being the fourth seat in the state that is at risk of a turnover to the GOP. I think Cicilline’s seat in Rhode Island is safe (Charles Cook rates the district Dem +13).
Iowa lost a seat due to redistricting, and two incumbents, one from each party, are squaring off in Iowa 3. Leonard Boswell, age 78, survived prior challenges in his old district, but now has to deal with a new district and new incumbent Tom Latham.
John Barrow has been a target of the GOP several times already, but in a newly drawn district (by the Republicans), he appears to be more vulnerable. He will not be an easy incumbent to take down, having shown survival skills already.
That is also true of Jim Matheson in Utah, one of America’s reddest states. He is a Democrat in the most GOP-leaning district in the country. Matheson survived a tough challenge in 2010 (when his district was rated GOP +15), winning by just 4%. Matheson chose to run in the new fourth district after passing on a run for the Senate.
Kathy Hochul won a special election for a GOP leaning district in the Buffalo area in 2011 to replace Chris Lee, who resigned after an embarrassing Craigslist sex solicitation. Hochul was aided by a barrage of “Mediscare” campaign ads attacking the Paul Ryan budget as a plan to “kill Medicare as we know it.” She was also assisted by a well-funded third party candidate, who said he was running as the Tea Party candidate. The third party candidate got twice as many votes as the margin of Hochul’s victory. The incumbent will face a tougher test in 2012.
Overall, the GOP is unlikely to knock off more than a few Democratic House incumbents in 2012, because they were so successful knocking off so many in 2010.
David Icke – The Change
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=z5c10soNr1g
On the Kathy Hochul race: Iraq war hero David Bellavia is surging in the GOP primary against a millionaire candidate who lost an election badly in just six months ago. If Bellavia wins, Hochul is toast.
READ THIS:
http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial-page/columns/bob-mccarthy/article801332.ece
If Richard Mourdock ousts Sen. Richard Lugar in the Indiana primary, which is not inconceivable, then Indiana may cease to be a sure thing for the Republicans.
I’m not sure what angle you’re coming from…I really don’t see Joe Donnely beating Mourdock in the general election; he actually lost a large majority of the counties in his district in ’08. The only reason he won is because of larger urban areas like South Bend and Kokomo giving him an edge in his gerrymandered district. If anything, a Mourdock victory would cement Indiana even more firmly in the red. Hoosiers are getting tired of Lugar’s act and I’m hopeful that we’re poised to replace him with Mourdock.
That’s absurd. Indiana is solidly Republican statewide. GOP Governor, GOP legislature, etc… DICK Lugar losing the primary would probably increase the chance of the Republican candidate winning that senate seat.
Lugar is the poster boy for the RINO establishment. I hope he joins his liberal friend Bennett from Utah in retirement.
Fear not!
I am confident the Republican Establishment will leave no conservative unbetrayed in their never-ending, and oft-successful quest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
thats so funny and yet so painfully true, I’m laughing and crying at the same time
Federal government workers sing to President Obama about the Government Services Administration (GSA) “going green,” all paid for by taxpayer dollars.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2q5glUFNBMA&feature=player_embedded
Here in Ohio, Brown is more vulnerable than the MSM wants to admit. He has been in government since 1974, first in the Ohio House of Representatives, then as Secretary of State under “Tricky Dick” Celeste, and then in the U.S. House.
He defeated Mike DeWine for Senator in the elect-a-fool year of 2006 (term borrowed from P.J. O’Rourke), and then DeWine came back as Ohio Attorney General in ’10, beating Brown’s friend “Tricky Dick II” Cordray, now Obama’s Consumer Protection Tsar.
The only reason Brown survived the Democrat crash-and-burn two years ago was that, being a Senator serving a six-year term, he wasn’t up for re-election. His policies on most everything except agriculture are right in line with the President’s, notably on energy. Brown is determined to stop “fracking” at all costs, and would like to make any and all oil or LNG-producing areas in Ohio off limits for exploration. He is also anti-nuclear power and doesn’t think much of hydroelectric. He is, however, a big fan of wind and solar, which probably isn’t a surprise in view of his other positions.
He is also anti-gun to the maximum, having campaigned vigorously against the state law which prohibited cities from prosecuting CCW permit holders from other parts of the state passing through their jurisdictions, a favorite sport of the administrations in Columbus and Cleveland.
On the financial side, he was instrumental in bringing the abortive “3C High Speed Rail” project to Ohio. It lost Democrat Ted Strickland his job as Governor in 2010, and caused Obama to make threats of legal action when incoming governor John Kasich sent the first installment back on the grounds that a 30 MPH train wasn’t really very “high speed”, and that the state couldn’t afford the multiple billions the system would cost unto infinity. Brown backed the President and SecTrans Ray LaHood to the hilt in this fracas.
The consensus in Ohio outside of the “islands of blue enlightenment” (Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland) is that Brown is a left-wing ideologue who has long ago gone past his “best before” date. While he could conceivably buy, beg, borrow or fabricate enough votes in the 3C cities to win re-election (Chicago has nothing on Ohio in this respect), it would be by a very slender margin. But like Obama, Brown will be sure to claim a “mandate” for his dogmas anyway.
The difference between Sherrod Brown and California’s Jerry Brown is so slight, most Buckeyes think there’s some DNA in common there. And Jerry isn’t exactly the flavor of the week here, in fact tendencies to act like him were why we pink-slipped Strickland after only one term.
In Ohio, you have to screw up spectacularly to be turfed out as governor after only one term, regardless of your party affiliation. As a rule, we don’t much care what the idiot in the Governor’s Mansion does, as long as he doesn’t constantly remind us that he’s an idiot. We even put up with George Voinovich for eight years as Governor and twelve years in the U.S. Senate; that should tell you something. His only claim to fame was walking out of an AGW “hearing” in the Senate on the grounds that Greenpeace, etc., had nothing sensible to say. The MSM was amazed that most Ohioans, of whatever political stripe, agreed with him. It was the only issue on which you could tell that Gorgeous George wasn’t a (Ted) Kennedy Democrat.
If Brown is so far left that even Ohioans who supported Voinovich can’t stomach him, that’s a “flare-lit tipoff”, as “Doc” Smith would say, that Ohio is not a safe state for the Democrats this year.
I look for Obama to campaign heavily here, as he can’t win re-election without Ohio’s electoral votes. But whether or not he will have the time, the money, or even the interest to try to save Brown is something else entirely.
Ohio will very likely be a place to watch this summer and on Election Night.
I’m making popcorn.
cheers
eon
As a fellow Buckeye, I hope you are right! Josh Mandel looks like a good bet to beat Brown and I will be doing my part to get him elected
O-H
i-o ?
It’s off to work we go?
With the attacks on coal, I cannot undertand why any of the coal states are battleground states, are citizens there aware of the EPA attacks and Obama’s own words about energy rates skyrocketing? Those states should be firmly in the ABO vote. Thanks for the insight to what’s happening in your state.
The GOP needs to focus on unleashing our energy sector, all of it, I don’t see any solar powered cars on the road, nor wind powered industries. We need an all in solution led by our strenghs, natural gas, coal and oil while we look for alternative solutions. When POTUS shows up in his algae powered limo, he’ll have my attention…and remind me how is Air Force One fueled? It sure gets around, that’s quite a glider he has there…
The coal miners are heavily unionized, which means they are pretty much in the tank for any Democrat.
No, it’s not rational. But it’s reality.
the union bosses might be for O for a few dollars more but i think the rank know who their enemy is and will vote no.
We’ll see, but I’m betting on the majority of them being good little union boys.
When even my dyed-in-the-wool Democrat in-laws are wondering who will be president next term, I’d say Brown and Obama both have a problem in Ohio.
from your lips to G_d’s ears my friend….I luv Josh M….!
Don’t bet on New Mexico. Heather Wilson will probably win the primary in June but will have a very hard time against Martin Heinrich (Dem) in the general election. The central corridor of the state is fast becoming a far left strong hold and that’s where the population is and that’s where Heinrich, a far left democrat, is popular.
Please get MOOchele’s Picture off the sidebar! Besides, she wouldn’t like what I want to tell Barack.
No, no, no, Mike. It’s called, “Taking their money and laughing all the way to the bank.”
I think it’s pretty funny, myself.
Mike2…..a lot can happen between now and November. For instance, assuming there are people that support democrats because they are uninformed/misinformed instead of socialistic/communistic (I pray), then they will be much less likely to support said democrats when they are “properly” vetted this time around, not like the free pass they were given by the msm with no recourse for those of us that desire the truth and let the chips fall where they may. Beware, the Sleeping Giant awakens 11-4-12.
Mitch McConnell has told us that absent a supermajority in the Senate ObamaCare can’t be overturned. In his interview with Peter Robinson, Mitch didn’t want to “get into the weeds” of how the Senate works. I’ll bet if he explained it that we the unwashed would get it. Having explained what can’t be done is there anything that he can do? We need a POTUS candidate and new leadership in the House and Senate. I left KY in 1963, leaving five generation of relatives buried there to get away for the politics that made KY the worst managed state in the union by the study in the WSJ. Now Mitch “Henry Clay” McConnell haunts me.
I, personally, am sick to death of these so-called conservatives like McConnell (and McCain, Graham, Lugar among others….)and feel that we need to primary these ‘gentlemen’ out. They have become corrupted to look after their own self-interests by being in DC too long. They “reach across the aisle” to make deals with liberals because they are also part of the big spending machine. Where is an Andrew Jackson when we need him? Including Boehner, many of our conservative leaders have forgotten why they are there and who sent them; just like any politician though, when its campaign time they become conservatives again just to get your vote. Let’s stop being fooled and let their voting records determine their fates.
By the way, when that pansie Lindsey Graham says that it is the ability to compromise that makes senators effective legislators, remember that idea only works when dealing with an HONEST BROKER. Today’s democrats are not honest brokers. They are seeking the DESTRUCTION of our country as we know it and CANNOT be compromised with, only DEFEATED. Yes, this election is that serious.
Don’t like Dick Lugar, then send some money to Mourdock. Same for Sheldon Brown and his Republican competitor Josh Mandell. We’ll get Lindsay Gramnesty next cycle. If you don’t want to donate directly, then find a good political action group, such as: Senate Conservatives Fund, Madison Project, Faith & Freedom Coalition, Freedom Works or others.
Graham should have been primaried out in his last election cycle, but he fought his challenger much more viciously than he has ever fought any Democrat. Just like McCain did to his last primary challenger Rep J D Hayworth. Disasters both!
The Southern Avenger Obamacare and the imaginary Constitution
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3_K_y-tq80
The new 3rd Congressional District in Iowa, which includes Des Moines, presents a good opportunity for Republicans. The 3rd has been represented by the elderly Democratic hack Leonard Boswell; but the counties in the new 3rd voted 147k to 123k Republican over Democrat in 2010.
Steve King will beat Mrs Vilsack in the 4th district (I don’t know why she is running); the 1st and 2nd districts were pretty even in 2010 but should favor the Democrats in 2012.
So Iowa ought to go from 3D-2R in 2010, to 2D-2R in 2012.
The appalling performance of Congress in the last decades must be addressed by strict term limits. Unless I’m mistaken, Ben Franklin, God’s special gift to America, served only one or two terms in Congress. Why do any of the present hacks need “polital careers” at taxpayer expense? Who are these people? Didn’t we get rid of the “nobility” when we won independence from England?
members of Congress have carved themselves sweet deals…funded by working Americans; they exempt themselves from laws they impose on us, hike their pay at will, and claim privilege.
It’s time for term limits; 12 years in Congress should be enough; pay for members should be the average wage of working Americans, medical benefits could be provided at any military hospital. No one should serve in Congress if he or she, or spouse, exspouse, close relative or business associate has been a lobbyist for 10 years prior to being sworn in. Former members of Congress, their spouses, exspouses, close relatives or business associates should be prohibited from lobbying for 12 years after leaving office to ensure all of their Congressional collegues have left office. Violations of the law by Congressmen and former Congress members should be punishable by long, sentences at hard labor.
Oh, one more thought; people convicted of polital corruption, election fraud, etc should be ineligible for executive clemency. let’s see how fast Obama pardons Blago after the elections…
Living in Albuquerque is stranger than Oz. Heinrich served on our city council where he was a solid liberal vote for every free-bee the democrat mayor (Chavez) wanted to hand out to city residents. The city has since changed hands (R) Richard Berry won handily a couple of years ago. Heinrich is a fair haired boy of the liberal causes, but the conservative Tea Party
movement is strong in this area of the state, unlike Santa Fe where it is just insanely californicated. My bet is that Heather Wilson takes the election by less than 3%. People remember her as a fair representative in Congress in the early 2000′s. Heinrich has been a rubber stamp for everything Obama, and I think with a very well liked Republican governor, 60%+ approval, Susanna Martinez, we are going Red in the 2012 election.
Arizonans can eliminate the “far left most”, socialist, progressive, liberal, communist, Raul “Boycott Arizona” Grijalva. 2 years ago, Ruth McClung a very intelligent woman nearly beat him but did not ingratiate herself to the Hispanic community.
Now we have Gabby Saucedo Mercer, a naturalized American citizen that is already ahead of him in the initial polls. She speaks both languages fluently, is very intelligent and in tuned with her district. I saw her in a predominantly democratic meeting in which most of the democrats said they would vote for her and contributed to her campaign. I was amazed.
We now can remove one of the staunchest Obama supporters in the House with a person that will truly represent her district.