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Carlin: Climategate Will Now Hit the EPA (PJM Exclusive)

Alan Carlin — the EPA scientist whose skeptical report was hushed — says the EPA broke tradition and used external work (from the CRU/IPCC) for its proposals.

by
Alan Carlin

Bio

December 2, 2009 - 9:00 am
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Need for a new approach

If the EPA wants to pursue the regulation of GHGs despite the weak scientific basis for it, there is an evident need for a whole new approach based on truly independent and careful review of the problem. The new approach must use the highest standards of scientific integrity, which means it must not rely on what appears to be biased research and sloppy data from CRU et al.

Although I did not know of the recent revelations concerning CRU et al last March, my comments strongly called for such a reappraisal. This problem will not go away, and may indeed get worse if we should learn more about the CRU et al’s work. There exists a possibility that the EPA’s current approach might succeed by some judicial fluke, but the chances seem to be decreasing with each new revelation.

Presumably one of the reasons the EPA decided to rely on the IPCC, and indirectly on the CRU, is that the Obama administration may have felt some urgency to move rapidly on global warming control. But given the downtrend in global temperatures over the past 11 years, and the likelihood that this will continue for some time (see Section 2.4 of my comments) because of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, there would appear to be ample time to start over and do it carefully and thoroughly this time — with full input by everyone that may be interested.

Basic problem remains

Despite the uproar concerning CRU et al’s data and research, the basic problem remains — the UN hypothesis that increases in GHGs/CO2 will result in significant increases in global temperatures has not been confirmed by comparisons with real world data. Unless it is, attempts to decrease GHG/CO2 emissions in order to significantly change global temperatures are very likely to fail. This is the primary question that the EPA and climate scientists need to address before any control efforts are undertaken.

Happily, we appear to have the time to do so, and to do so objectively using reproducible data.

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Alan Carlin has carried out or supervised economic and scientific research on public policy issues for over 40 years — first at The RAND Corporation, and since 1971 at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
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