Bin Laden’s Struggle for Relevance
It is becoming clearer and clearer that al-Qaeda and the tactics that define it are not working. This stands in sharp contrast to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies who bring order, social services, and victories in battle using tactics more in line with guerilla warfare. On almost every front, from Yemen to Lebanon to Iraq to the Palestinian territories, the Iranians have had more success in asserting influence and combating the West than al-Qaeda. This shift is occurring despite the fact that the majority of the Muslim world is Sunni. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are viewed as nearly being puppets of the Iranians. Hezbollah has a huge amount of support among Sunnis despite their theological differences. The Muslim Brotherhood is growing closer to Iran, and al-Qaeda and the Taliban rely upon the Iranians for support, although debate continues about how extensive and critical it is.
Syria is firmly in Iran’s bloc. Qatar, despite its alliance with the U.S., has positioned itself with Iran. Iraq has obviously grown closer to Iran since the days of Saddam, publicly lashing out at Syria, but not Iran, for supporting the insurgents. Bahrain has a Shiite majority and Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province is up to 90 percent Shiite. Although the Gulf states live in fear of Iran, as this shift in power happens and doubts about the U.S. commitment to defend them rise, they will be tempted to cater to Iran’s increasing leadership role in the Muslim world for their own safety.
This competition doesn’t mean that Iran and al-Qaeda don’t cooperate, but bin Laden and those like him are still threatened by the increased attention the world is giving to Iran. Bin Laden needs a larger-than-life image of being America’s worst enemy, able to unleash his followers from around the world with a single decision. Expect al-Qaeda to try to demonstrate its ability and credibility as jihadists by increasing the tempo of smaller attacks in the West in order to steal the headlines. It also needs some sort of battlefield victory that allows it to create a safe haven, both for operational and ideological purposes. Bin Laden and al-Qaeda are also trying to repair his image by going to greater lengths to tie his actions to U.S. foreign policy and attempting to justify their killing of Muslims.
It is even possible, although not likely, that al-Qaeda and similar militants will try to gain some legitimacy by focusing on military targets and acting more as a guerilla warfare force as Iran’s proxies have successfully done. There will be academics in the West who try to argue that this shift means that the terrorists we’ve come to fear have been minimized and the armed elements of the Middle East are legitimate guerilla forces now simply seeking liberation. There are three types of jihadists, as I’ve previously pointed out, and we should take no comfort in the rise of the more politically skillful kind.
Hmmm…nothing like a good martyrdom to increase Bin Laden’s standing!
One can wish.
Americans put excessive importance to the existence of Osama Bin Laden. Somebody keeps his image alive just to profit from the anti-terrorist budgets (Saudis, CIA, Taliban, British, media, conservatives?). I think he died many years ago, the Media has kept him alive. He is no different from Elvis or any current media fodder. If he’s alive, the Bin Laden family has extensive connections and plenty of money. This whole thing smells more than a stinking goat.
I wouldn’t be surprised someone would copyright and start the Bin Laden terror franchise . . . before the competition takes over.
Bin Laden should get pod casts of Chris Matthews, for some pointers.
Osama may have lost some credibility in the western press but does it matter to his true believer followers? Are the Jihadists still willing to strap one on and become smart bombs for the loudspeaker? The Baghad Bob Award can go out to Osama’s play for air time as well as certain other western politicians who advocate for new age ideology in the face of reality.
Obama will allow al qaeda to regain its footing.
From “I’m Dead (But I Don’t Know It)” by Randy Newman:
“I pass the houses of the dead
They’re calling me to join their group
But I stagger on instead
Dear God, sweet God
Protect me from the truth, hey
I’m dead but I don’t know it
He’s dead, he’s dead
I’m dead but I don’t know
He’s dead, he’s dead
I’m dead but I don’t know it
He’s dead, he’s dead
Please don’t tell me so”
Next case?
two term shadow president john fitzgerald kerry-kennedy is spending weekends at his secret ops base in pokistan hunting son of laden. he is regularly joined by secretary of state clinton-kennedy who almost joined the marines and prefers not to oursource as well.
Currently there is only one land route supply line to the troops in Afghanistan. The current American qualitative advantage over the enemy comes at a high hydro carbon technological price: no one want’s to loose their trillion dollar investments in Johnny and Susie in a real war. The the low tech enemy is dying to blow us up on no frill flights to Frisco, flying in on diversity visas. We currently use 40 billion (that is not a mistake) gallons of diesel a year in our economy. I suppose relevance all depends on where you sit in the food supply chain. And, of, course in our new age economy when it comes to managing risks “this times its different.”
8. The case you’re trying to be make would be much easier if it were coherent.
Yeah, your right, I should have added a few sentences to the incoherency of facts. After Cortez burned his boats, his troops did fight better against the Aztecs. They had no choice.
The guy is dead and has been for a long time! Any video you see is old stuff all edited and so is all the audio you hear, and then you have text which any idiot could write and claim you were him!
I put no faith in anything that says Bin Laden said it or videoed it or Tweeted it or Burped it or anything because it is all garbage!
Steve is right: bin Laden’s dead – courtesy of the U.S. Air Force over Tora Bora, December 2001.
If author Ryan Mauro or anyone else disagrees, simply produce bin Laden. And not as an audio tape, or a grainy, fake but accurate, obviously phony video taken from fifteen feet away. Have him do an interview with the BBC with plenty of close up face shots, discussing current events.
There is every reason for bin Laden to agree: his appearance would instantly fire up millions of followers in the Muslim world with a huge morale boost. He could raise an army, and a fortune, literally overnight. There’s only one reason bin Laden wouldn’t do an interview…
He’s dead.
Who cares if Bin Laden is dead or alive ? I don’t believe anything said about him is relevant. On the other hand , this topic is great and I wish some high powered writer would write an essay about relevance .
In this 60 minute fame-cycle world there are some people whom we should remember for being relevant;briefly.
Comedian Bill Mahr. I expect this guy to make a comeback once Obama is gone.
Colon Powell. General of the unimportant . His opinion is more worthless than mine.
Special Prosecutor , Paul Fitzgerald . oops, Patricia .er Patreck Fitzsimmons, You know the guy who shot Liberty Valence , er.ah,got Libby plame . Or Joe Wilson. Fearless . tenacious COMPLETELY NON PARTISAN. He is still on the job hunting down those criminals in Chicago. He got all the phone taps and document evidence and I suppose he will be announcing indictments any day now. Probably around 2020 when his investigation is complete. Irrelevance doesn’t even scratch this guys resume.
Bin Laden is a historical footnote, and its only Old Media’s fascination with contrived melodrama that keeps him in the news.
Bin laden may, or may not be alive. What matters is the consistent terrorists, and hate speech we see every day or two from the religion of peace.
The southern border still allows illegal alien anchor baby mothers into this country. How many other than Mexicans from the middle east come through there? How many Mosques help them in the border states? Then push them northward?
Those terrorists we have in our jails now still want to murder you, and I. Their hearts are twisted with hate through a false religion that worships death.
Just wait a day, or two. Then remember what I wrote here. All real Americans should have your gear ready to put on, and your weapons ready to go for terrorism, illegal alien crime, and acts of G-d. Do not want for the government to come help you. They have stabed us in the back by allowing millions of illegal aliens into this country, and placing us in hock to the CHICOMMS.
BZO, or Die!
There is zip and nada real evidence to indicate that he’s dead, and Obama and the military aren’t exactly acting like he is. And he could retire knowing that he’s caused more death and destruction, directly and indirectly, to the U.S. than anyone else and has gotten away with it (much thanks to friggin Bush on that). So far. Until he’s killed or captured, he’s going to remain a powerful symbol for those don’t exactly have the U.S.’s best interests in mind.
Bin Laden disavowed responsibility for the 911 attack. A fact too basic for the willfully ignorant to swallow. But then reality is irritating to the sheeple. Rather they bleat the storyline of the ruling elite caring deeply about the working man’s plight. People vote against themselves.
Repub preference for emotional engagement over reasonable argument has allowed the GOP to blind the constituency to their own real interests. They know how to stoke up resentment against the patronizing liberal elite, all those do-gooders who assume they know what poor people ought to be thinking.
Right-wing politics has become a vehicle for channeling this popular anger against intellectual snobs. The result is that many of America’s poorest citizens have a deep emotional attachment to a party that serves the interests of its richest. Voters have become blinded to their real interests. Whatever disadvantaged Americans think they are voting for, they get something quite different: They receive a social order in which wealth is more concentrated than ever before in our life times, workers have been stripped of power, and CEOs are rewarded in a manner that is beyond imagining.
It’s like a French Revolution in reverse in which the workers come pouring down the street screaming more power to the aristocracy.