Bibi’s Win: The Largest Coalition in Israeli History
The closing of a deal for a national unity government in Israel and the consequent cancellation of scheduled elections represent political triumphs for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s maneuver is of significance not only for students of political tactics. Substantively, the new coalition unites the Israeli right and center into a single governing bloc. Netanyahu’s government will now enjoy the support of 94 members in the 120-member Knesset. This is the broadest-based coalition in Israeli political history.
The remaining 26 opposition MKs consist of the social-democratic left, the far-right, and the Arab parties.
On the face of it, the new coalition appears to have been made possible because of newly minted Kadima Chairman Shaul Mofaz’s setting of an extremely low price for his allegiance. Mofaz will receive the largely empty title of deputy prime minister and will serve as a minister without portfolio in the government. He will be the only Kadima member of the cabinet.
Mofaz appears to have agreed to this deal because his party was facing the prospect of electoral oblivion in the upcoming elections. Now the largest single party with 28 seats, polls had predicted that the centrist list would have fallen to around 10 seats following the now-cancelled elections.
What might prove most important is that Mofaz will be part of the security cabinet and consulted on all key decisions regarding military action. In other words, he would participate fully regarding any decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Netanyahu’s Likud, on the other hand, was headed for a decisive victory in the polls. This enabled the prime minister to drive a hard bargain.
The new coalition is not dependent on the support of any non-Zionist or religious party in order to maintain its majority. It can therefore serve as the instrument for far-reaching change in key areas of policy, should Netanyahu wish to use it to do so.
Netanyahu and Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz have noted four areas on which the government will focus: finding a responsible alternative to the Tal Law, which allowed religious seminary students to escape military service; changing the governance system in Israel; passing a budget that will address economic and social needs; and pursuing the diplomatic process with the Palestinians.
Of course, it is a far more open question as to whether any far-reaching policy moves in these areas will actually take place. With Netanyahu, there is a notable gap between presentation and content. The prime minister is a cautious figure who is known for seeking consensus within the cabinet and avoiding antagonizing allies. Despite the current ringing declarations of intent, it is very possible that once the new coalition is sworn in the prime minister will be pleased to pocket the political stability it gives him until October 2013 while avoiding major policy moves.
There is already speculation in Israel and beyond regarding what the creation of the new coalition could imply for the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran. It is undoubtedly the case that the new coalition will be the kind of broad alliance which Israeli leaders have historically preferred for pursuing military moves when deemed necessary. However, that such a coalition would be a necessary element for an attack on Iran does not mean that its appearance necessarily signals a move of this kind. In this regard, it should also be noted that Shaul Mofaz is one of the more outspoken supporters of a policy of allowing sanctions against Iran more time.
The adding of former IDF Chief of Staff Mofaz to the cabinet confirms another emergent Netanyahu pattern — namely, his preference for gathering around himself former military men whose undoubted professional skills are accompanied by a notable lack of political ones.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak is the senior representative of this type. Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon also exemplifies it. Mofaz is the third addition to the list.
Mofaz is famed in Israel for jumping from Likud to Kadima at the last possible moment when that party was established in 2005, having formerly made a ringing declaration that he was staying “home.” He now appears to have made a similar move in the reverse direction.
But though accurately seen in Israel as a mediocre politician, the Iranian-born Mofaz was a highly competent soldier and officer and a relatively successful IDF chief of staff.
The Winograd Committee’s report on the 2006 Lebanon War also revealed him to have been a consistently reasonable voice in Ehud Olmert’s chaotic wartime cabinet. Mofaz argued for an earlier use of ground troops in the war, but opposed the futile engagement of these forces in the dying days of the conflict. Both these decisions confirm him as a cool-headed, intelligent military thinker.
During his first prime ministership, Netanyahu’s admirers in the Likud used to refer to him as the “cosem” (magician). Since then, there have been failures and defeats and the magic sheen has long been tarnished. But the events of the last days prove that at least when it comes to mastery and management of the political process in Israel, the current prime minister is without peer. He is now the most experienced politician in the Israeli front rank, and it shows.
It would be premature, however, to predict subsequent far-reaching policy moves on any front. This Israeli prime minister is tactically bold, but strategically extremely cautious.
I am sure that the mad mullahs are not happy about this, and they fully appreciate the meaning of it.
Nobody knows if it will hit, but the fist is closed.
As an Israeli, I am not at all interested, nor impressed, by Bibi’s ‘magical’ political powers.
What I am interested in is this-can he follow through on strategic imperatives, or not? In plain language, will he order a nation-saving pre-emption, against a genocidal regime, BEFORE the zone of immunity renders his decision moot?
As to the rest of his powers, first things first. Once Iran is dealt with, the Tal Law reformation, plus (long-overdue) electoral system changes will be easy as pie-at least compared to the Iranian campaign!!
Whether they realize it now or later, this is the best possible scenario for Israel going forward on the world stage, because there is a true Statesman at the helm in Netanyahu. No other world leader can match him in righteous boldness, made even more amazing in the face of threats and dangers that other nations have crumbled under. Fine cigars for all in celebration.
Kadima should be more accurately described as center-left rather than centrist. It actually won one seat more than Likud in the last election, but the right wing had a majority in the Knesset, so Likud formed the government. After the election Netanyahu wanted a centrist national unity government with Kadima, but Tzipi Livni, then leader of Kadima, insisted not only on Kadima’s political agenda, but also on rotation in the PM office, i.e. Netanyahu would be the PM for two years and then she would be the PM for the remaining two years. Netanyahu said no. Livni miscalculated the political prospects of a right-wing coalition. She thought it would be an unmitigated disaster, so the public would reject it and vote for the strong opposition, which would be Kadima. She was wrong.
The reason Kadima was still the largest party in the previous election, in spite of some staggering failures, was that it was the only party left of Likud that had any chance of beating Likud, so in addition to center-left voters that have no other party, many left-wingers, particularly Labor voters, voted for Kadima to prevent a Likud government. I voted Kadima since I normally (used to) vote for center-left parties, and also because I hoped a strong Kadima would lead to a centrist national unity government (Likud’s victory seemed certain at the time). I didn’t want a right-wing government, nor a left-wing government, but a centrist government, and I think there are a lot of Israelis like me. When Livni decided to remain in the opposition I saw it as nothing short of a betrayal, exactly because her calculation was that a right-wing government will be a disaster for Israel. If you think it’s going to be a disaster for the country, you should enter the government to prevent the disaster rather than “teach the voters a lesson” hoping they will vote for you next time. She tried to portray her position as principled, but there was also the matter of political and personal ambition in her demand for rotation in the PM office.
Her behavior in the opposition was also annoying, but more than that Kadima was simply marginalized in the opposition. All in all it would have lost almost 2/3 of its voters according to polls. The left-wingers who voted for Kadima to prevent a Likud government went back to their left-wing parties, and some centrist voters like me are now undecided or considering voting for center-right Likud for the first time in our lives…
The prediction that a right-wing government would be an unmitigated disaster proved to be wrong, like most of Kadima’s predictions. Instead, Livni’s strategy proved to be an unmitigated disaster for Kadima. Netanyahu managed to pull the Labor party into a sort of unity government, though it eventually resulted in a split inside Labor between the more centrist elements and the more leftist elements. Netanyahu faced a lot of challenges, including the large demonstrations over the economic situation, the flareups on the southern border, a hostile American president, a hostile anti-Israel world, and a difficult coalition, and he handled them pretty well. The economy has been quite stable considering the global and regional upheaval and some concessions made to unions and to pacify the demonstrations (now largely over), the southern border is currently relatively quiet (though that is always subject to change), the US hadn’t abandoned us yet, Obama has backed off a little, we’re not as internationally isolated as the left hoped we would be, and now Kadima entered Netanyahu’s government at a much lower price than he was willing to offer them 3 years ago. I wouldn’t call that performance an unmitigated disaster.
I don’t even fear the international isolation as much as before because I realize we’re facing very dangerous and difficult times, and while future isolation might be part of the existential threat there’s nothing we can do about it because nothing short of our suicide will appease the West, or at least the Western left. I came to accept this reality and fear it less. The lesson I’ve learned in the last 20 years is that no matter what Israel does or doesn’t do, no matter how many concessions we make and how many terror and rocket attacks we get in return, no matter how much Israel is willing to compromise in a final agreement while the other side isn’t willing to accept the existence of a Jewish state in any borders, no matter what measures we take and how many soldiers we sacrifice to minimize the civilian casualties on the other side, while Hamas intentionally targets our civilians, using its own people as human shields, the leftist propaganda machine will still fire at us with full force, everyone will still blame us and intensely, viscerally, hate us, threaten with boycotts and embargoes, and demand more and more and more, and finally that the West will prefer to shed fake hypocritical tears over our evaporation in a cloud of fire and smoke than see us prevent it. The world doesn’t have a stick and a carrot for us – it only has a stick for us and it will beat us with it no matter what. The world doesn’t care if we all die for what they (rightly or wrongly) consider to be in their best interest. The only alternative we have is to stand for ourselves the best we can under the circumstances against our enemies and those fake “righteous” bullies in the West who support them. And a cautious Netanyahu would do it better than the stupid leftists who, indeed, brought us an unmitigated disaster.
Well said. We Conservatives also have learned to distrust Obama. I sincerely hope the country has come to its senses in the past three and a half years. Four more years of Obama will destroy much of what our founders created. Bibi may not be perfect but had we the choice we would gladly take him as ours. Much of our population has foolishly followed this phoney Obama for the most shallow of reasons – being black, reading a teleprompter with the black cadance, looking good in a suit, and telling lies with smirking confidence. Obama is our Palestine -but with power. Stay strong and many if not most of the citizens of our country are with you. You are under great threat from outside and we in the USA are under great threat from within. Time to strike the enemies of our nations. Evil comes in many forms. We know clearly who they are.
Don’t judge the world by the leftist media. Public and congressional support is keeping Obama on a leash when it comes to Israel, although what he would try to do if he is re-elected is anyone’s guess.
BTW, although the US is hurting, any American whether rich or poor has more power than the Prime Ministers of most countries, if he votes. As for the world’s lefties, to paraphrase Frederick the Great, how much firepower do they have?
Pnina: Not all in the West are left-wing jew-baiting bigots posing as champions of Palistinian “rights.” Many–no, most–Americans have a deep and abiding respect for you in Israel and stand in awe of your people and culture that have not only survived centuries of the worst of humanity’s abuses, but have thrived and added immeasurably to the betterment of mankind.
I realize that with our current President, and his “progressive” media allies, it looks as though we’ve abandoned Israel and her brave people. But we, the PEOPLE of the United States, have not.
Three and a half years ago, we lost our way. We allowed our left-wing fringe to take control of our country. Ever since we — and you — have paid the price for that horrendous lapse in sanity. But we are about to correct our mistake. In six months time, we will have a new President. I believe he will be a man of honor who will restore the might and majesty of the oldest, most successful society of free men and women in history.
And when that comes to pass, we will once again stand proudly with Israel. Once again, we will have your back.
Nicely put, but I respectfully take exception to the term “we will once again stand proudly with Israel”. The American people’s support for Israel never stopped.
Hair splitting I know, but I wanted to note that Obama does not represent the majority of thinking Americans and never has.
Bob,
Amen. Obama certainly doesn’t represent me. Not only would I not shake his hand, I’m sure it would be a very good idea for me to avoid talking to him. I would be proud to shake Bibi’s hand. I’ve never grudged a dime of the aid to Israel and consider it money well spent. The cash to Egypt, on the other hand…
I hope the God of Israel will not hide His face from Israel’s leaders as they pray for guidance about how to handle the existential threat they face.
Anytime any one of you three gentlemen make your way to Jerusalem I would be honored to shake your hand.
Kol HaKavod!
My take is that Bibi is cautious, but not that cautious. I believe that he will act against Iran. In fact, I doubt any Prime Minister would sit and fail to act in the face of Iran gaining nuclear capacity of the military kind – the only kind they’re actually interested in.
Regarding Mofaz, I don’t agree that he will lobby for extended time for sanctions. I believe it’s fairly obvious that Bibi queried him on the Iran question, with specific interest in whether Mofaz would go along with an attack. Based only on reading a few columns in the Israeli papers and my own reading of Mofaz, he will.
Pnina, we won’t mind if you keep drifting to the right. It’s good for your health – really.
Dave Smith, thanks for your kind words.
GO, BIBI!!!
When you’re done over there, we could really use some help over here.
It’s about time we came up with a salary-benefits package offer for Bibi.
Putting off elections is one small advantage. Taking the worst party in Israeli history (Kadima) back into the government hardly balances that. Kadima almost singlehandedly trashed Israel and they refused to hold early elections even as their damage was so profound and opposed by the Israeli population. Olmert – perhaps the worst Jewish leader in history – clung to power (and even STILL tried to unilaterally pull out the territories AFTER the disaster of the unilateral pullout of Gaza was so apparent and stupid). Then Tzipi Livni continued on with the stupid talk long after. Kadima should have gone the way of Shinui.
I cannot see any advantage for Israel in inviting such idiots back into the government for a nation that was only lucky to make it through their reign of destruction. Their handling of the Lebanon/Gaza Wars showed that Kadima cannot be trusted with Israeli security in any way and their actions after that confirmed this for the slow-of-thinking.
Bibi will go down in history as a great leader.
In celebration I will take another sip from my Sodastream (Israel product) refreshing drink with my favorite flavoring (Tennessee whiskey). There is a metaphor in there somewhere but the day is too nice for word play.
Way to go, Bibi!
Israel is surrounded by enemies sworn to kill every Jew in Israel and round the world. Iran’s Ahmadinejad has told the world at the UNITED NATIONS that Iran will wipe Israel from the face of the earth! Hitler said the same about the Jews and almost succeeded!
More than six million Jews were slaughtered in ghettos throughout Europe and gassed and burned alive in the German prison camps! A few German leaders were brought to justice but that will never, ever justify the genocide of innocent people!
I believe Israel is under an imminent threat of annihilation by their enemies IF the IDF does NOT strike first with every weapon available immediately and dispatch their enemies before it is TOO LATE!
Perhaps then the world will show some respect for Israel and the Jews round the world rather than treating them as the dregs of the earth!
Israel and America are supposed to be allies but the present aministration will not take Iran seriously before they acquire a nuclear weapon and the result will be far worse than WWII IF they do!
Consequently, Israel must attack and force he rest of the FREE WORLD to choose who the enemies of the FREE WORLD are and STOP the threat of Islam dominating the world with Shiria law!