Believing Israel Will Strike Iran
American Foreign Policy Council Vice President Ilan Berman echoes much of Heller’s sentiment, calling a potential Israel hit on Iran a publicly divisive but strategically timely event.
“This is an interesting fork in the road with UN and U.S. sanctions. We’re no longer speaking in the future tense about seeing if sanctions work,” Berman comments. “The likelihood is that the economic pressure being applied is too little too late. Ultimately, though, Israel has to make a choice of whether or not they can tolerate a nuclear Iran in the region. Israelis have been deferring a decision for a long time but it’s a decision that can no longer be kicked down the road.”
No one has a timeline for a strike, but the proverbial regional ticking bomb is clicking away. As the status quo continues, a growing number of countries — Egypt, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia among them — are building their own responses to the Iranian threat. Allowing the situation to continue as is may create residual damage while a military attack could be the surest way of returning a power balance to neighbors, says Berman.
Berlusconi’s statement is an indication of the G-20 leadership’s understanding of just how much “Iran is out of the box,” Berman explains. “It’s not an issue of technology or a nuclear program; it’s about what the ayatollahs are ready to do with it.”
And so in hushed tones the U.S., Europe, and sections of the Arab world support a military strike against Iran, and the perception is that Israel will be the subcontracted hit man.
The message to Israel: Don’t bore us with the details. Do what you have to do and we’ll condemn you in public and applaud you privately.
We can only hope that if Israel hits Iran it goes for broke. By this I mean they should endeavour to inflict massive, crippling casualties on Iran as a nation as well as simply destroying its military base. Sure, turn nuclear fuel processing facilities into holes in the ground but please, please try to kill forty or fifty or a hundred thousand Revolutionary Guards. Sink the Iranian Navy; eliminate its air force (and its aircrew) but also eradicate its ports and its refineries and its power generation capacity. Engender a crushing economic as well as military catastrophe. Turn Iran into a Stone Age shell of its former self, and then start talking. This is the correct way in which Islamofascists must be confronted: we see your agenda, we saw it when you you invaded us the last twenty times, and Charles Martel and Jan Sobieski and Herbert Kitchener (among others) taught you the error of your ways. Not for us the fate of the Banu Qurayza. For you the fate of Abdul Rahman at Tours or Ali Pasha at Lepanto or the stinking, deranged dervishes at Omdurman.
The Iranian govt is the enemy, not the Iranian people
That’s pretty harsh treatment of Iran. I wonder if it will be sufficient.
This is one of the better written Articles ive read on this site;
No pandering with emotional comments, no blathering about Islam or Judeo – Christian religions, no mixing half truths with intellectual dishonesty…just the facts and what actually occurs behind closed doors, away from hysterical extremes on all sides.
Russia, which has long standing agreements with Israel and is one of the Nations that will provide support for this required Endeavor should be mentioned in particular.
Well written, Bravo.
Your antipathy towards morality is clear. Your resentment of it is also very clear – it inhibits the animal instincts, those that Russian leaders turn to first when trying to ‘solve’ any problem.
The truth is that Russia had consistently armed and emboldened Iran, Syria and the Hizbollah. If Russia steps back now because it does not wish to confront Israel and the US head-on over Iran, this is hardly volunteering a helping hand. It is merely acceding to a reality that Russia does not have an interest in overtly upsetting. It appears that Putin tried everything to get the S-300s to Iran, for instance, but enough Israeli and American counter-pressure in that instance stopped him.
Israel and Russia are working on a 10 billion dollar trade deal where Israel would modernize certain weapons systems.
I think you’re touching on the tip of the real issue here. I don’t believe Iran is capable of doing any of this on it’s own, nor do I think Iran is the major player in this whole web. This is a minor piece of a much more complex game of houses being played between much larger powers than Iran and Israel.
Consider this: Where would the technology Israel would potentially be selling to Russia ultimately be coming from? There are a lot of back door deals going on here, and I would be surprised if it didn’t come back to the missile deployments that were supposed to be going into Poland.
This is being played out on many levels, Iran is the public face of it, but nothing more than that.
This is the first article I’ve ever read on this site. I agree that it is well written, and does a fair job of a neutral presentation. I am just as impressed with the comments being left. Its refreshing to see an intelligent conversation going on here…
my own cynical belief is the “western powers” want Israel to take out Iran for them – they can then have their cake (a defanged Iran) and eat it too (blasting Israel for “attacking” iran.), all the while attempting to come out smelling like a rose. (not being party to the attacks, and “friend” to islam.)
Absolutely spot on! I’ve long believed this is true. I wish there were some way to force the Western powers to deal with this themselves or face the consequences.
Absolutely agree. Italian Prime Minister admits that Europe is hoping Israel will stop Iran. But Europe also has its statements condemming Israel all written and ready to go. Cowards and hypocites all of them.
The European powers can’t even handle the moslem populations they have. If they tried anything against Iran they would be crippled from the inside.
I think you’re failing to realize that Iran isn’t part of what most Muslims would consider the Muslim world. Remember, it’s called the Arab Street, and any Arab will very quickly tell you that Iran is NOT a part of that. The cultural/racial divides in that part of the world are much deeper than most Westerners have bothered to read about.
Just like in 1981, then, when Begin had the Osirak reactor bombed to much public opprobrium and more quiet approval among the chancelleries of the world. Israel might as well tell the powers-that-be to go and stew in their own juice.
There are media reports that Israeli and US Navy ships have been seen in convoy together in the Red sea headed east. The IDF has stationed 3 submarines in the Arabian gulf, supposedly capable of delivering cruise missiles. These subs are ideal platforms for gathering intelligence, disrupting Iranian naval operations in the Straits of Hormuz, and rescuing downed Israeli pilots. The Saudis have apparently granted overflight permission for a strike. Two US carriers are in the Indian ocean or gulf and a third carrier task force may be on the way to the region. There have been reports of middle eastern satelite countries granting basing rights to the IDF. All indications point towards a direct action against Iran.
It will be interesting to see what the level of coordination is against Iran. Egypt, the Saudis, Iraqis and other neighbors have no use for the Persians. The Chinese and Russians have resisted effective sanctions. Their reluctance pushes the west and Israel towards a military option.
Hezbollah and Hamas will react militarily if a strike occurs. They can damage Israel with missile barrages. Israel will exact a very severe price for any proxy attacks. We will see lots of anti Israel rage in the Middle East and in Europe. The Garafalo/Stone bloc will rant in the US.
Get ready for a big spike in oil prices and reprisals by the mullahs. This could have been avoided if Obama had supported the Greens last June.
Elections have cosequences.
Israel does the world’s bidding and the world gets to rip Israel a new one for doing so.
The proverbial gold being delivered on a silver platter. Disgusting.
An unprovoked Israeli military attack on Iran would be the very last ditch and perhaps least effective effort to derail the Iranian nuclear program. An unprovoked Israeli military attack on Iran would have such serious regional security repercussions that is it almost unthinkable except when compared to the regional security repercussions that would ensue with Iranian possession of a nuclear armed ballistic missile.
For Israel itself the consequences of such an attack could be devastating. Israel is practically surrounded now by well armed Iranian proxies Hizballa and Syria in the North, the Iranian proxy Hamas in the South, the Palestinian Authority militia in the West, the possibility of a Turkish military offensive against Israel, and including the 1.3 million pro Iran Israeli Arab Community. If as would be expected all of these forces were ordered by Iran to retaliate against Israel, Israel would have to use the sort of doomsday destructive military measures that would leave Damascus, Beirut, Southern Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, much of the West Bank, perhaps Istanbul, and perhaps most of the Israeli Arab towns smoldering blood soaked ruins with Arab casualties running into the hundreds of thousands and Israel intact but badly damaged with thousands of casualties of our own.
This can all be easily avoided by the simple act of American President Barack Obama demanding and imposing serious and damaging economic sanctions and embargoes on Iran. If that doesn’t work, then Obama must order military attacks on known and secret Iranian nuclear facilities to both slow down and ultimately put an end to Iranian nuclear ambitions.
Time is running out for the use of relatively painless economic sanctions, embargoes, or blockade interventions to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapon capability, but it doesn’t seem that Barack Obama even cares to know what time it is.
Turkey will not get involved no matter what they claim.
Hamas is using their rockets sparingly, they are low on weapons. They will run out shortly after a few blows.
Hizbullah is the biggest problem, though they are still licking their wounds, Israel will not go lightly and make the same mistakes as last time.
Dead on. Unfortunately, I cannot see Obama acting in any meaningful way. He is not on Israel’s side and while the other G-8 nations may want Israel to strike Iran, I doubt very much that Obama does. He would prefer to see a much weakened Israel, perhaps even to see the end of Israel (which I think would be the end result of a nuclear Iran because of the power shifts that would result in the Middle East). He leaves Israel to make a terrible choice, and for that he should be condemned in history forever.
He will be, I think we may count on that much.
Well Obama has said he will always side with the muslims if push comes to shove,so he will never side with Israel,people can say hes not muslim but he changed his name to a muslim name and who but a muslim would do that.And by the way ,isnt it time we refer to jewish people as jewish and not jews,if i have to call africans african american and chinese,chinese not chinks,well,get my point?
It’s a very bad option, but the alternative is worse. Two well-placed warheads would indeed effectively “wipe Israel off the map.” As in other Ahmadinejad phrases, “radiation treatment” for the Israeli “cancer”, or “fire from Heaven.”
Israel is looking at national annihilation, and all other concerns pale. Mass Scud attacks from Lebanon would be bad, but survivable. Not so Iranian nukes.
Two warheads would wipe a lot more than Israel off the map, to say nothing of the nuclear fallout that would sweep across the Arab world. And who knows what this would do to Europe? Allowing this to happen is madness.
Israel clearly cannot (and must not) act alone – for its own sake. Reading the EU tea leaves, just as the author does, leads nowhere. EU has been oblivious of the Iranian threat (distant, far-away, not concerning us; too bad for the Jews in Israel only, tough …) and is not ready to face it. Instead, it prefers to deal with trivialities and jaw-jaw about their decrepit, semi-socialist economies. By cancelling the U.S. plan for a defensive shield against missiles over Europe (installations in Poland and the Czech Rep.), thereby pleasing the Ruskies, Obama unwittingly served a notice on the EU: You are in it on your own, it is a DIY job from now on. It went unheeded.
If Israel is ever brought to be held by the throat and strike out (“unprovoked”) at five to midnight in its modern statehood, even a military success may spell the end of the country as we know it. Should it not manage to take out the Iranian nuclear capacity in one fell swoop, the mullahs might release their surviving missiles at random, quite possibly hitting Europe, too. This would do no harm to Russia, which is part of the reason why it acts so friendly to Iran. A crippled Europe would do nicely for Moscow.
So much for the Europeans and their “support”. What about the Sunni Arabs, then? They will be happy to see both Iran and Israel obliterated – for them, it looks like a win-win proposition.
If the U.S. fails to deliver on the Iranian threat and crunch it in time without direct Israeli involvement, the die in the Near East may well be cast for Armaggedon. With Obama at the helm, this is a real possibility. The One could turn out not to be so funny an epitheton after all.
I think all this noise is just that. Nothing will be done other than bluster and a few parked warships. Everyone is hoping Iran will back down quietly under pressure and “threat” by proximity- the US can’t afford anymore blood and treasure and Iran knows it.
The Iranian bomb is a foregone conclusion.
That isn’t quite the entire story. The US can afford a large number of unmanned aircraft and cruise missils. A comment from a James Bond film was ‘Never send a man when you can send a bullet.’ A decent size bomb on Mullah-central during the Friday night rant would go a long way to destabilize the Iranian government, since Achmenejad [?] is just their mouthpiece. Similarly, unmanned destruction of military bases can be carried out. The West is by no means without options. Now if we just had an option of a real president rather than the clown we are stuck with ……..
TB,
The U.S. Army, and the U.S.M.C. are *somewhat* degraded by nearly a decade of fighting, mostly in equipment. But, a huge number of troops are leaving Iraq as wel speak, with their equipment. Iran has even more port facilities than Kuwait for the U.S.N.S. to use to take that equipment home.
However, the truth is that the U.S. would not be using ground troops, and the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy are in remarkably good material status, and prepositioned forward in the Middle East. The U.S. is quite capable of delivering a devastating ‘alpha’ strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastucture.
However, I don’t think that our current civilian command apparatus has the cajones to push the button despite losing the option to do anything else.
This is appalling. Mr. “Hope and Change” and his lying toady Hillary Clinton assured the world that the best way to deal with Iran was through negotiations, the UN, and sanctions. Well, ALL of that has failed. Now what?
You see, when liberals are naive and wrong, it usually spells disaster for the rest of us. So now where do we go to complain about this ineptness? What do we do when Iran gets its bomb and we have to tell the rest of the world that we threw away almost two years, TWO YEARS, in this fruitless attempt to “engage” the mullahs in diplomacy? Liberals keep muttering “Never Again” as a sop to their Jewish voters, hoping to keep those big fat donations coming into the Democratic party. But what will those same liberals say when Tel Aviv goes up in a mushroom cloud? Ooops, sorry, we did our best trying to negotiate with these insane Islamic thugs? What do we say to the world after we already witnessed a similar failure of appeasement under Neville Chamberlain, only to follow his example and stumble into yet another preventable war?
And what about the Europeans? Those same, hypocritical, duplicitous, Europeans who wasted years in negotiating with Iran, are now “discovering” that the Iranians were (go figure) lying to them and were actually stalling for time in order to make their bomb. Now those same Europeans are quietly hoping the Israelis will do the dirty work for them, so that the Europeans and wring their hands with shock and disbelief once the bombs actually fall on Tehran, saying, “We obviously had nothing to do with this.” And you even have other Sunni Arabs, like the Saudis, actually rooting for the Israelis to attack the Shia Iranians. Now THAT is how messed up this situation is.
And to add even more insult to injury, Mr. Hope and Change also threw away, he actually THREW AWAY, the last best hope last year to overthrow the mullahs when the bulk of the population was rioting in the streets. Rather than seize this opportunity and use massive covert operations the push the mullahs over the edge and finally obtain regime change, Mr. Obama did NOTHING! And now he is is shocked, shocked mind you, that the Iranians have surpressed the revolt and have ignored all of the sanctions and diplomacy offered by this little, child-like, dilatant.
This would all be funny if it wasn’t so horribly depressing. Within six to eight months Iran will probably have a working nuclear bomb. Israel will probably attack, although they know what that will mean to the Middle East and they probably will not be able to destroy Iran’s capacity to continue its nuclear program. And if you think oil prices are high now, just wait. This will all probably happen by next winter, just when we need oil most to heat homes.
So as you’re shivering in your home or going broke having to pay for your high energy bills, just remember the man who brought you to this disaster. How’s that Hope and Change working for you now?
So now we are at the point where we could be, potentially, looking down into the abyss of another Cuban Missile Crisis once Iran gets its bomb. What do you all think Iran will do once Israel attacks? Israel even admits bombing is not the solution since they cannot be sure of taking out all of Iran’s nuclear facilities through bombing. Iran will, naturally, retaliate with God only knows what. Hamas and Hezbollah will attack Israel, the Straits of Hormuz will be closed, oil prices will skyrocket, and Iran could also attack American forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Nice. Great job, Barack.
This is what you get when you make a boy with no experience in ANYTHING other than running for public office and turn him into President of the United States. It almost sounds like a Disney movie, the boy who wished to become president of the United States and suddenly was. How charming. But it is NOT a movie and it very much is the reality of the situation. And you wonder why the world is on edge.
Long Live Israel. Bomb the perverted Persians to smithereens…and take the rest of the godless heathen mooslims with them…the world will be a much more peaceful place without this dung filled religion of p*ss bowing down and worshiping their monkey god!
****TROLL ALERT****
David,
Really, is that the best you could come up with? Maybe you should re-take that seminar class on how to paint conservatives and their web sites as racist. After all, you have all that free time with your subsidized housing and unemployment checks to come up with something more subtle.
Time yes.
Ability no.
Nicely said. It’s really sad that a mere 30% of registered voters were enough to get Obama-clown in office. It was 52% of the 58%-turnout that did it.
LibertyShip,
Spot on.
And to run with your remark regarding the thrown away opportunity Obama had, I don’t think he even had to *do* anything like commit troops, even covert ones. I think that if the Iranian people protesting had the moral support of the rest of the world, we may very well have had regime change already. A simple statement from the U.S. President supporting democratic reforms in a theocratic country, and maybe a call for the rest of the world to condemn Iranian govt violence against their own citizens, could have made all the difference.
Now, instead a beacon of hope, that light on the hill, that used to be America for oppressed people the world over, we’ve announced yet again that realpolitik is king. I hate that when either side (Dem or Repub) does it. And in this case, we got nothing for keeping our mouth shut.
So, diplomatically speaking, the leadership of the world is a solid SEVEN YEARS behind ordinary, sensible people in their ability to assess and recognize reality.
If the consequences weren’t so dreadful, one could laugh out loud.
That report in 2003 was written and issued specifically to PREVENT president Bush from taking any real action on this problem. Now, seven years later, the world “hopes” Israel will man up. Charming.
Excellent analysis.
Ordinary people are almost always better at assessing reality than leaders, so-called intellectual elites and experts. Just look at who Bernie Maddoff conned?
The willingness of the United States, the Western Europeans, and even the Arabs, to punt on Iran in hopes that Israel will do their dirty work reflects or our collective decadence and cowardice; our unwillingness to fight for liberty on a scale unseen since the late 1930s.
There will be a war over the Iranian nuclear program. The only questions are when, how broad, and whether it will be a nuclear war. Thousands, even tens of thousands, will die in that war, at a minimum. But, it is also possible that hundreds of thousands or even millions will die in such a war.
By first isolating the Israelis diplomatically so they do not believe they can rely on others to protect them, and then leaving the decision of whether, and when, to strike at the Iranian nuclear program to the Israelis, whose conventional capability to completely stop the Iranian nuclear program is questionable, we increase the likelihood that a war will either be (a) protracted and involve the entire middle east if the Israelis do not use nuclear weapons, or (b) stunningly bloody if they do.
Only the United States has the military capability to mount the kind of sustained conventional air (and special forces) assault necessary to effectively stop the Iranian nuclear program. Out of fear of Iranian response in Iraq and Afghanistan, and out of the cowardice of the left, we refuse to act.
He who defines the battle often wins. If we allow the Israelis to define this battle, we have completely lost control of how and where will be fought, and thus how many and who, will die.
The right thing to do would be for the United States to undertake the air campaign necessary to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program. And to make it crystal clear to the Iranians that any Iranian incursions into Iraq, or attempts by its Syrian, Hamas or Hezbollah proxies would be dealt with the way we let the Soviets know we would deal with an invasion of Western Europe: with the liberal use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Good post. Actually, because of the accuracy of the content of your second-to-last paragraph, I hope Israel does take the lead. At some level what is going on, through American abdication, is a reluctant contest between Israel and the US to see who actually leads the war against Jihad. As a Jew, I want Israel to do so. In the process, it will redefine US-Israeli relationships and restore a concept of actual sovereignty within Israel. That the situation has come to this is absurd and horrifying; given that this is the situation, then Israel can either ‘step up’ or be the West’s kicking post forever.
As an American, I would much rather see the United States define the battlespace and the scope of the battle – if only because our range of options is greater and we are probably less likely to perceive an “Armageddon” situation that would precipitate the Israeli “Samson Option” and a massive nuclear response.
The Israelis simply don’t have the sustained capability to fight the Iranians on a conventional basis, and so an Israeli-defined battle is, in my opinion, far more likely to end up nuclear than would an American-defined battle.
I understand. I should have written ‘as an Israeli,’ as I will be returning permanently in a few months. I simply do not regard the United States as a reliable ally, and believe that Israel has caused itself tremendous problems by insisting on subjugating its profound security concerns to what turn out to be, in many cases, American whims.
Excellent analysis!
I’ve heard that the Russians are selling to Iran an advanced air defense system. It seems to me that Israel will strike before that system becomes operational. The time is nigh.
I read somewhere that the reason Israel was able to take out Syria’s incipient nuclear site was through superior electronics. Somehow they took over and neutralized the electronic control system of that site, and were able to bomb it before anyone knew what was happening. What if Israel were able to neutralize electronic controls in Iran, leaving them unable to communicate and completely out of touch with what was happening? Maybe the Israelis have options we can only guess at.
Russia is very pragmatic these days. It might not be Iran they choose to ally with, it might be Israel. Especially if Israel can successfully pull this off. The Europeans are looking more and more irrelevant. Their and our unwillingness and increasing inability to deal with this is going to cost us a lot in the future, including any influence over anyone in the Middle East.
I tend to view Russia as playing a Yojimbo-like role by playing off both sides of the conflict for its own benefit. A plausible scenario is to sell Iran the decades-old technological blueprints for weapons while selling Israel the same plans with the weaknesses highlighted. Heads I win, tails I win.
Exactly. Russia learned politics from the Byzantines.
Iran’s new Russian S-300 system is a generation more advanced than the Syrian stuff.
the so called police countries of the world has no guts like the israel nation if they do strike they will remember enteebe, israel needs no backing from any nations expect God .Be still and know that IAm God.
The ready acceptance of a backstairs relationship with Israel–publicly condemning the defanging of Iran while secretly supporting it–is disgusting. It is doubly disgusting to hear Israel’s honest and open supporters settling for such hypocrisy.
The Americans and Europeans have proven themselves cowards in their dealings with Iran. Tiny Israel should not be left to do their dirty work and be the world’s policeman.
The false perception at the heart of this matter is that Israel alone is Iran’s main target and that the Europe and America are not directly threatened. This falsity follows from the deeper lie that Israel is at the heart of the world’s problems in the middle east.
Oil and its uninterrupted flow into western factories and automobiles is the only real concern of Western policy makers. Saudi Arabia’s oil, not the survival of Israel, is what keeps lights burning late in Foggy Bottom. Saudi Arabia is a lot closer to Iran than Israel and the Saudi’s are far more exposed.
Israel shouldn’t wait like a backstairs whore for a green light from the White House to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. It needs to insist that Western leaders get honest and openly educate their constituents about Middle East realities. The green light needs to be shown openly and seen by all.
” The false perception at the heart of this matter is that Israel alone is Iran’s main target and that the Europe and America are not directly threatened. This falsity follows from the deeper lie that Israel is at the heart of the world’s problems in the middle east.
Oil and its uninterrupted flow into western factories and automobiles is the only real concern of Western policy makers. Saudi Arabia’s oil, not the survival of Israel, is what keeps lights burning late in Foggy Bottom. Saudi Arabia is a lot closer to Iran than Israel and the Saudi’s are far more exposed.”
Get yourself a name and keep posting. You have hit the nail on the head.
It isn’t just Europe and America. There’s an incipient civil war in Islam, between Sunni and Shia, and the Iranians represent Shia, the millenialists who believe in deliberately fomenting bloodshed and chaos to hurry along the arrival of their messianic figure.
The Sunnis are more circumspect, and do not wish to be conquered by Shia or subjected to ‘infidel’ status in a future of Shia supremacy brought about by NUCLEAR supremacy.
Thus, in spite of Wahabism and radicalism and violence and terrorism from the Saudis, they also want something done about the Tehran nuke makers. They even hope Israel does it, and are secretly working with them on several levels to make it easier for them.
And they know better than to expect any help at all from Oblama.
Should it really be left to Israel to pull the world’s chestnuts out of the fire? Israel is the country the world loves to criticize, condemn, even to hate. Yet many want Israel to solve what should be the responsibility of the more “responsible” powers. The 1% of the world’s population that resides in Israel are expected to save the other 99%. And then be condemned after the fact!
A strike of the requisite magnitude will assuredly carry unintended consequences. It could well spark a war involving Iran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbullah and Syria). And Israel of course will be blamed for it all. But the current US leadership, as usual, will not let a crisis go to waste. I can imagine Obama going to Israel insisting that they have no friend left but the US, and if they want its help and “protection”, it must accept the Saudi “peace plan” (which will leave Israel geographically, demographically and economically broken). Otherwise, the US will leave them on their own.
Actually, it is much less than 1%.
In the event Israel strikes Iran, she will get hit with volleys of missiles from Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria. While I am counting on Israeli shelters and civil defense to keep casualties to the minimum, the destruction will be massive. Tens of thousands of homes will be destroyed and the impact to Israel’s economy will be dire.
But there is no choice. The overwhelming majority of Israelis know they cannot survive with a nuclear Iran.
I think the initial response will be silence, as there was when the Israelis took out the Osirak reactor in Iraq. Only after everybody’s sure the reactor was really down did the UN start its silly condemnation routine.
What a pathetic excuse for a leadership policy.And it perfectly explains the world wide feckless left.
Israel knows full well that they are alone in the world and cannot depend on a single ally for support.
Time is apparently growing short and the enemies of Israel keep ratcheting up the political pressure .
It could happen soon.
I don’t know if Israel will strike but I sure know that everybody will condemn her later.
Jonas, Israel is stronger than you think and its current right-wing mindset is the antidote for neighboring radicalism. I wish Morshe Ya’alon was in Defense though.
How many of you believe that Obama shares stature with or has power over Netanhayu just because he lorded over and embarrassed the Jew in public? The notion is laughable. With Ephraim Sneh’s prediction, Obama is a strawman that will be cut down by design. November it is.
His owners will force him to watch as Israel paints another masterpiece.
The Obama regime will continue to condemn Israel and bask in the assumed warmth of ongoing Jewish community support in the U.S. I wonder how long it will take the liberal American Jews to realize that Obama and company despise them? Take their money? Yes. Appear to support the community’s other aims and goals outside of the Israel context? Yes, because those goals align fairly closely with Obama’s – construct a socialist U.S. which resembles the actual government of Israel. The last sentence of the article neatly encapsulates current world opinion at the elite, progressive/socialist ruling clique level.
PREVENTATIVE MEASURES AGAINST EVIL: OUR FUNDAMENTAL DUTIES FOR SURVIVAL
Eliminating major evils such as those that threaten our lives, is the most fundamental sense we should not only have, and with full awareness, but we MUST also take all actions needed to prevent such evils from harming or destroying us.
Those who force their god or their religious ways onto others – such as the current Iranian regime intends and continues to do – cannot be given courtesy as if the situation were debatable.
And with such religiofascist regime possessing nuclear weapons…
History continues to demonstrate that evil does not go away by itself.
It must be prevented or eliminated by action, and without wasting time with kind words.
If the world permits the current Iranian regime to acquire or possess the capability to produce nuclear weapons, then shortly threafter, we will most certainly witness VAST DESTRUCTION AND MASSIVE DEATHS – possibly TOTAL DESTRUCTION.
The actions required to save this world are self evident.
Stephanie: you and the rest of Neo Cons here are a military genius.
Let me just give you a peice of advice:
if Israel attacks Iran, any of you living in Israel should get the heel out of there fast
In miriam’s world, the absolute, worst possible crime, is a Jew defending himself.
Thanks for the tip, Miriam. I’ll send a note to some folks in Israel, and remind them to leave barefoot, heel first.
If Iran is allowed to build its nukes, there won’t be anyone living in Israel.
You know miriam, I can easily picture you standing in a 1932 biergarten in munich singing “Tomorrow Belongs to Me” at the top of your lungs.
For all the whining on this board the US Gives billions every year to Israel, much more than is ever publically disclosed. Russia has long term deep commitments and business with Israel, as does France and England and most of Europe. When the strikes on Iran Occur, it will be through the support intelligence and data supplied by these Nations. Israel is trained, funded and supplied and this is the Price.
Such whining.
” … much more than is ever publically disclosed. ”
Just where do you buy your tin foil hats? Do they come with antennae or do you have to add your own?
It seems again that Israel is the only western country on this planet that is facing the truth and acting accordingly. What every other “democratic” “western values” etc. country is saying is this: Deep down everybody is like us, and look at the Cuban missile crisis and the perceived Russian nuclear threat during the cold war – it never happened! Therefore an Iranian nuclear attack will never happen. It’s just the “fear du jour.”
The one thing that all the middle-class western countries have in common is that their citizens, including many of those writing in to websites like this, are looking at their houses and possessions, their well-manicured lawns and their state of the art technological gadgets, knowing deep down that “it could never happen here.”
Well guess what, so did the Jews in Europe in 1933.
It’s human nature, not facts or intelligence, that is standing between our cosy western world and total chaos and darkness, – the part of human nature that says: Well everything looks so normal, how could anyone REALLY come and mess it up?
If we put those useless sentiments aside for the time being and, like the Israelis, started to really face the facts as what they are, facts, (not some misguided hope that the people who have stated clearly that they REALLY want to kill us don’t really mean it,) we could perhaps start to achieve something.
But when you’re standing there on your front porch with the murderer aiming his gun at your forehead, do you really need to hear from all your neighbours crowding around to get a good look: “He doesn’t really mean it! He’s just saying he wants to kill you, but he’s not actually going to do it! And I will fight to the death for his right to … oh hang on. He just shot you. Oh well, but then your great-grandfather DID call his great-grandfather an idiot in 1852…So it’s your own fault.”
People: Not everybody is like us. They are completely different from us and they really want to kill us. When will we start to believe it?
While Israel has to do what Israel has to do to survive, it is an ABSOLUTE outrage that a nation less than the size of NJ ! has to be the west’s hit man.Moreover, by continually doing the world’s dirty work – Osirak anyone?-all we get for our efforts is public condemnation! Who gives a flying fig about private atta boys, when publicly we are treated like pariahs of the first order.
My fervent hope is that Israel decapitates the Iranian program, decimates the regime, and holds the west accountable for their treachery.There are various and sundry ways to do this, and exposing much of the duplicity is a good first step.
Payback MUST be a bitch!
The horse has left the barn. The great danger to Israel is not a nuclear missile with a verifiable home address. The great danger is a dirty bomb which Iran can already build. Smuggled into Gaza on an ” aid flotilla ” then handed to a shahid with Tel Aviv as his, or her , target. Deniability will protect Iran from any counter attack.
The true beneficiary of any strike on Iran is Saudi Arabia and Obama will do what his masters tell him to do.
P.J speculators: Please cool your jets, you are out of line, when clueless, it is best to leave the key board alone. A hit on Iran is far more complicated than a morning job on Damascus or Beirut. The speculators on the “Israeli hit” are relentless “sensationalistas” ( hungry for excitment, why not get off on the Al Gore “Sex Poodle” scandal? this could keep you busy?) because such an operation could only happen in utter desperation, known as the “Samson option” and no one defined what exactly this option is? Has anyone reallly counted or saw a working nuclear bomb in Israel? Wonks like the girly Fareed Zakariah, CNN, says that Israel has 200 bombs. Has he seen one? Has Israel tested one? But everyone can have their say in the age of th einternet. Including many contributors to P.M. The writer evidently is not an Israeli, never served in uniform and is clueless about Israel’s choices. It makes no sense for so many bloggers to fill the pages of many web sites with utterly unsubstantiated ideas that could ultimately spark an uncalled for confrontation. Only a massive U.S “Shock and Awe” could cripple Iran. Israel can only do a Hail-Mary slap which may buy time.
You raise the real questions here: how much can Israel do without using nuclear weapons? Can Israel use nuclear weapons in a tactical context? Would Israel initiate a ‘first use’ nuclear war to stop Iran from getting the bomb? I think the Israelis can do some significant damage, but, ultimately you are correct that only the US could do the job without nuclear weapons (and maybe then, we’d have to use nuclear bunker busters). Yet, as I pointed out above, the more Israel is isolated and cannot count on protection from the US, the more likely that Israel would be willing to use nuclear weapons. It is a frightening prospect the armchair strategists simply don’t understand.
Are you not also an armchair strategist? We all are.
Now, I am an amateur. I have done strategy professionally (in and out of the service) at one time and have been a lifelong student of strategy.
Has Israel tested a nuclear bomb ?
Yes, covertly, and they very nearly got away with it.
The weapon was detonated on a remote island south of
South Africa, and the ‘flash’ triggered a sensor on
a US satellite which happened to be overhead at the
time.
The US intelligence community exercised benign neglect.
Israel has had an operating reactor since 1955. An operational nuclear device since 1961. Those are the facts.
Al R.,
“Only a massive U.S “Shock and Awe” could cripple Iran. Israel can only do a Hail-Mary slap which may buy time.”
In this case, sir, I respectfully put forth that you are the one doing the speculating. The goal would not be to cripple Iran, only its ability to continue production of nuclear weapons.
Al R.,
“Only a massive U.S “Shock and Awe” could cripple Iran. Israel can only do a Hail-Mary slap which may buy time.”
The goal would not be to cripple Iran, only its ability to continue production of nuclear weapons.
Iran’s nuclear production infrastructure is dispersed, which *does* necessitate multiple strike packages, and probably multiple methods of attack (air strike, cruise missiles, possible covert operators, etc). However, each discrete element of the nuclear production chain must be intact in order for Iran to bring a functional weapon to bear.
This means that Israel or the United States does not *have* to take out the infrastructure in its entirety. Iran’s reactor at Bushehr is vulnerable due to its location right next to the sea. The housing areas near some facilities for the nuclear scientists and engineers are also vulnerable. The centrifuges, while underground, are delicate pieces of equipment, and by design, need to be clustered in groups. Etcetera.
Taking out any component decisively will vastly complicate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, delaying it by years, more than just a “Hail Mary slap”. Taking out more than one element adds that much more complication and delay. While it might be the best possible outcome to completely neuter Iran’s nuclear program, a limited strike goes a long way.
Adina and Menchaem: what are guys smoking in Israel? I like to know
My preferences run to Cohiba, Partagas, Ramon Allones and San Cristobals.
Everyone knows how to start a war, but no one can predict how the fighting will unfold, who it may ultimately include, and of course, how it will end and who will lose the most. If serious and widespread fighting should break out following an Israeli/Saudi/American air assault on the Iranian nuclear program it could well spread from the Magreb, Northern Africa, to the Levant, Syria and Lebanon, to Israel, and to the Persian Gulf, and there won’t be any winners. And if the Gulf oil supplies are blocked by the Iranians sinking a ship in the Straits of Hormuz, America, Europe, Japan, China, South America, and most of Asia will be very, very cold this winter and the jobless rates there will skyrocket.
President Barack Obama has the chance right now to avoid even the possibility of a terrible war like this breaking out by imposing a total embargo on all gasoline supplies to Iran, and a total blockade and air embargo on all Iranian exports. He can also publicly tell the Iranian mullahs that if they still continue to enrich uranium after the embargoes are in place, pinpoint selective bombing and cruise missile attacks will be launched against every single nuclear facility in Iran, and every Iranian leader will have a target painted on his back.
But time is running out, and if Mr. Obama cannot, will not, or is unable to show the determined leadership necessary to halt the Iranian nuclear program, then some one else will have to and definitely will do so.
The second most important target in Iran are the military and paramilitary installations of the dogs (no offense intended for the real dogs)of the regime: if the populations of Iran will know that the revolutionary guard and the other watchdogs are crippled, there can be an insurrection against the mad mullahs.
The fact that Israel will have to act alone is entirely due to our voters who have elected an administration of subversives and this fact cannot be changed in the short term…but in the short term the mad mullahs can get to the bomb.
So we can only thank Israel in advance.
Unfortunately, very few in the West including those in Isreal understand morality. Most think of morality as a sacrifice of themselves or countrymen to their brothers and sisters or to their god. Sacrifice has become, albeit erroneously, the height of morality. Therefore, very few can philosophically defend their right to their own existence. Without such a philosophical understanding of why they have a right to existence, no person or nation can, without self-flagellating guilt, protect themselves and their countrymen from the madmen of the world. So, they appease. Every leader of the West and the US in particular has appeased the maniacal philosophies rampant in the world and in the Middle East in particular due to their own sacrificial philosophy. Carter failed to respond to the Iranian hostage takers. Reagan left Beruit after a few casualties. Bush and Bush Jr failed to take on the “Axis of Evil”. Clinton and Obama embraced, and still do, the world’s dictators.
Without a proper philosophy for existence, history will repeat itself and thousands if not millions of people will be “sacrificed” by their benevolent leaders of the West.
Israel is in a no-win situation. The Arabs, Europeans and US will use an Israeli attack as an excuse to increase Israel’s ostracization. Obviously the Israeli decision will be made based on their judgement whether Iran will use the weapon or not. But to have got to this point represents a decades-long failure of leadership – in all Israeli political parties – to establish long range strategies. Israelis have a reputation for seat-of-the-pants decision making, which sometimes works in an immediate crisis, but ultimately leaves them boxed in with few options.
Arabs may hate Persians, but the strike will not occur. The moment it would, everyone who secretly condoned it will turn on Israel and politically attack them.
Now that this story has been made VERY public, I will wager that Iran has been steadily increasing the permanent population of workers and civilians in and around the area as a “collateral damage” propaganda tool should Israel strike.
Tyler520,
Although I think you’re right that most Arab countries would denounce the an Israeli attack on Iran, I think from such countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan, the words would be equivocating and generic, with no push for sanctions and such.
Saudi Arabia especially does not want to see Iran become a Middle East Superpower. Once an Iranian nuclear bomb is a reality, Saudi influence wanes and the rest of the Gulf states start dancing to Iran’s tune. Saudi Arabia can live with Israel much easier than they can deal with a nuclear Iran. Hence the ‘announcement’ that Saudi airspace would be open to Israeli planes enroute Iran.
The unpredictability of a war’s course means unless Iran actually on video attacks physically Israel and inflicts massive damage and loss of life with injuries there will be no Israeli attack on iran.
No One wants to be the first to roll the dice and take a chance on a full stop for iranian nukes. If the IDF/IAF fail to take out the nukes then Tel Aviv will be considered an impact area for the first nuke iran can produce or procure by other means.
I see Obama, POTUS (PBUH) sitting this out unless he strikes at Israel in revenge for the attack.
Not set in stone this is just a wild assed but informed guess.
Donald Sensing and Power and Control blogs have been gaming this situation and think a war of some kind will happen this year. They ask, will Israel hit first? Will Tel Aviv agree to be hit first?
(warning: my own loony idea NOT THEIRS)–
What if it’s our navy that’s to take the Iranian hit.
1. This would create a Pearl Harbor atmosphere at home with an underlying resentment agianst Isreal.
2.It would further cripple our military and help our enimies.
3.No one would belive it.
Though D. Blair did just quit.
One year ago BHO sat on his hands and refused to get involved when the Little Hitler of Iran stole the election. Iranians risked their lives to change the government to a more peaceful and democratic regime. Of all the mistakes BHO has made this one was arguably the biggest. If the clown in the Oval Office was worth a damn we wouldn’t be having this discussion today. The people of Iran want change. They want peaceful relations with the USA and with Israel. Obama is the number one dunce on the planet.
MBY,
Agreed. Saying *nothing* to give the Iranian protestors our moral support at least, along with his continued isolation of Israel, will be the greatest mark against this current president. Is America a light on the hill, a beacon of hope?
the greatest mark
—
Did somebody call?
D’oh! That took me a moment…
BHOs treatment of the freedom fighters, and that is exactly what they were, can be summed up in one word- abandonment. Not even a word of moral support came to his lips. As fundamental a betrayal of American values as I have ever seen.
No. I retract that.
Seeing the President of The United Sates bow down to a foreign head of state was the great betrayal.
While Israel has a legal casus belli, having been threatened with genocide for thirty years on a daily basis, and facing an enemy with enough enriched uranium for two nuclear bombs, and a growing arsenal of missiles within reach of Tel Aviv, there are very concrete practical difficulties. Israeli experts have pointed out that the IDF can do fast and devastating strikes, but that it does not have the US capacity for long-term knock-down of Iran’s nuclear sites, or the ability to block unknown missile sites from launching. That takes the US and its allies, including Arab countries that are also directly threatened by Iran. They hate and fear Tehran as much as anybody else does, and they wield a lot of influence in this administration.
If Israel were to go it alone the sole means for doing so would be by using WMDs. But the political cost of that is far too high. If pushed to the wall, the IDF would do it, but only as a last resort.
I think the US administration must know that. That is why three carrier groups have been sent there, and there are rumored to be preparations in Saudi, Azerbaijan, and elsewhere. Nobody knows if it’s a head-fake or not, and that is appropriate. Nobody should know.
I believe that Obama will be forced by facts to enable a naval/air strike in alliance with the Arab states, Israel, and NATO. It will also have to conduct an air and perhaps naval blockade of Iran, to keep hidden missiles from launching. It will also have to clean out the IRGC from the Straits of Hormuz and block any other retaliatory efforts. This is difficult but possible. It has been done before, during the Tanker War, during Gulf War I and II, and in previous ME wars.
The Iranians will try to strike back using Hamas and Hezbollah. They will bet on the international leftist media to back them up. Because Obama is a leftist, his public stance will matter to them. Syria will talk tough but it will stay out for fear of devastating retaliation.
I believe that Obama has agreed to knock down Iran in return for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians. Whether that is wise or not is another matter. The immediate threat to Israel and all of Iran’s neighbors (including even Russia, which is within easy missile range) has to take priority.
Obama needs that “peace on earth” photo op with Netanyahu and Abbas to win re-election in 2012. His political survival depends upon looking like a leader. So far he’s flubbed his chances.
The real question today is whether the Persian Gulf concentration of US, allied, Israeli, and Arab assets is a head fake or not. Nobody will be able to tell until the bombs start to drop.
” I believe that Obama has agreed to knock down Iran in return for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians. ”
Iran is a greater threat to Saudi Arabia than it is to Israel. Every concession Israel has made has only led to additional conflict. Obama is hated by his own military, distrusted by the voters, and proven ineffective in every policy he has promoted. As I write there are Americans in Louisiana try to clean up the worst environmental disaster in American history with shop vacs they were forced to buy on their own. The lesson to the rest of the world has been learned. Obama is not to be trusted.
The oil spill is Nemesis writ large. I’m a strict monotheist myself, but I have to admit, the Greeks did understand a lot about reality.
Jim L.,
I concur with almost all of your points on why we (US) should strike vice Israel. Plus, I think that it would be more palatable in the MidEast for us to do it instead of Israel.
Distilling some things down, a US strike would:
1) Most likely delay by years, or forever, Iranian nuclear capability
2) Benefit our ME ally Saudi Arabia
3) Benefit our ME ally Israel
I’m now trying to puzzle out how our President could benefit politically by *not* striking. How could his agenda be advanced? How could Iran’s acquisition to the Bomb help him? I fear I’m missing some other consideration…
mostly agree with Jim Lewis – too many dots are connecting to a U.S. lead, with Saudi support (and what part of the Arab world is going to protest about protecting Mecca and Medina from the Shi’a ‘heretics’?)
Except, “three carrier groups have been sent there” is not accurate. Truman is officially relieving Eisenhower today, and Nassau is positioned off Yemen to cover the Saudis back. Reagan is heading west, but not yet ordered to join Truman. Maybe Eisenhower will take a leisurely route back home to Norfolk with a stopover at Diego Garcia.
The point is that Israel will not act alone, or first, or pre-emptively. Israel has a key role in electronics/radar/satellite and keeping Hezbollah from reacting (which is actually in Hezbollah’s self-interest).
What Berlusconi said was part of the psych-ops signalling going on.
Keep your eye on the Kurds, distracting the Eye of Iran.
Absolute spying perfection will lead Israel’s decision to act, or not, to assure that they are not being head faked, as #37 mentions. The US/Israel scene that was made over the tiny item of building in their own country may have been part of a drama being played out to distance the USA from Israel’s possible action against Iran, but if it wasn’t it’s a mistake. The Middle East has banked on their hatreds of US/Israel relations and they would never be convinced that US hands were clean when it comes to Israel. Iran will come after us both.
This supposed strike cannot just target a couple sites..it must
be massive and across the entire Iranian military/industrial complex
and I dont think Israel can do it alone. USAF Gen Thomas McInerney called
for 2500 aim points minimum. And this in the face of the newest Russian
air defense systems. So we are going to sit by and watch this
tiny country try the impossible while play acting at moral superiority?
And the US is doing this so it can placate the fruitcakes on the Far Left? Iran may be damaged,Israel will be damaged..but US will look like cowards for a long time to come.
Why just military/ industrial complexes? Every Iranian must feel the end result of their country’s philosophy or lack thereof. Destroying a few military posts or factories will have little impact on the hatred being spewed by the little dictator, his religious choir, and the masses who wish for the death of Isreal and the US. Only when Iran as a whole is destroyed will the hate filled citizens realize the impact of their pathetic philosophy. Their will must be destroyed or this will go on for decades to come. The Japanese saw the result of their death philosopy and turned away from it to become one of the most prosperous countries ever. Dittos Germany. Anything but total defeat of Iran and those like it will be a loss for the West.
The first wave of attack will be without warning, carried out by Stealth
bombers and cruise missles that will evade radar. As in Iraq the first
targets are always “Command and Control”..and that means the Iranian leadership.
In other words a cruise missle for the bedroom window of every Mullah
and two cruise missles for Amadinejad himself.
ehunter,
Iran’s nuclear capabilities can be decimated by far fewer that 2500 aim points. Like a chain, many of its nuclear facilities have to be functioning in order to build a weapon. Take away raw material production (reactors, of which there are few), expertise (scientist and engineers’ group residences), processing (centrifuges), electroninc control devices, etc. We don’t have to take out everything (though I concede readily that would be optimal), just enough to degrade production of a working bomb for a few years.
Pangea, I don’t believe that the Iranian people are behind their illustrious leader in this. While there is a certain amount of national pride in creating and possessing a nuclear bomb, I think that the Iranian population would much rather have a more democratic and secular government, as evidenced by last year’s Green Revolution protests. And, we (well, President Obama) blew a fantastic opportunity to give moral support to another Iranian revolution. Instead, we alientated teh Iranian people with our silence.
As my name suggests, I am not unbiased nor am I given to endless dithering of “what if” consequences entailed by choice A (eliminate the threat posed by Iran permanently through massive, crippling military strikes on Iran, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza, and southern Lebanon); B (Continue the “sanctions” silliness–effectively proven to have absolutely no effect on the leadership of Iran); or C, (Accept the status quo).
Choice “A” is inevitable.
Chioce “B” is laughable and the scorn heaped on the US and Europe for continuing to cling to it is humiliating.
Choice “C” as well as choice “B” underscore the inevitability of choice “A”.
I have to agree with so many posters here that asking Irael to do what is needed so that the feckless cowards in the West can posture their faux outrage for what they all understand must happen is shameful.
“Show me a hero and I will write you a tragedy.” F. Scott Fitzgerald, famed author, wastrel and dissolute moral coward is apropos to the 21st century moral state of the West.
We once were capable of inflicting and absorbing industrial scale warfare to achieve peace and to re-establish justice.
Now, Israel will have to do this on its own. In the aftermath, Israel, weakened, treacherously isolated and utterly abandoned, will serve to encourage and facilitate the usurping Jackal in our Whitehouse to impose an “international” solution.
I love the nation of Israel and I mourn for what is coming. But, it is inevitable.
US Aegis cruisers will be providing anti-ballistic missile coverage to this event, ostensibly to prevent Iran from shooting missiles at Saudi, Kuwait, Dubai, and Iraq (look for Patriot batteries in Iraq to move east of Bagdad and around Basra in coming days), but really to test their effectiveness against longer range missiles headed for Israel.
I’m also curious as to where the Tactical High Energy Laser “prototypes” are sitting these days. We developed them with Israel as a partner in the Bush administration, now is an ideal time to get some real world testing done.
The US really needs to be preparing for this better, training Afghans and Kurds to raid into Iran to take out training camps that Iran is training Sadrists and Taliban at. If not I hope Israel has them on their menu.
On May 8, 2010 a gray whale was first sighted of the coast of Israel at Jaffa-Tel Aviv, the same location where Jonah was spit out by the whale over two thousand five hundred years ago. He was sent to call the people of Ninevah to repentance.
The gray whale only lives in the Pacific ocean. It is literally on the opposite side of the earth. Is this just a coincedence?
Is this a sign to the people of Israel to repent, or for Ninevah which is now called Mosul, Iraq? Is the United States considered to be one with Iraq since it’s forces are so deeply inserted in it’s affairs? The US is facing a deadly oil spill now, what will come next?
The 9th of Av (July 19) is a day of calamity for Israel, both of it’s temples were destroyed, the Jews were kicked out of Spain, and many other tragedies as well.
If Israel attacks Iran, it will likely be attacked by Syria, Jordan, Gaza (Hamas), and Lebanon (Hezbollah) according to Psalm 83, but surprisingly not Iran, or Turkey. Isaiah 17 which some link to Psalm 83 suggests that Damascus will be nuked, and Israel will be hit hard as well, especially the north.
Pray for the leaders to have the courage to humble themselves before God and prevent this terrible judgement. Don’t neglect to humble yourselves as well. Turn back to God and love your neighbor as yourself.
If you have loved ones in the mideast, tell them to flee, and let the proud and arrogant destroy themselves.
You Americans! You talk of war but know only battle. How do you speak of that you know nothing of? When did you last see your cities destroyed, your industrys wrecked, your country overwhelmed by an invader? So quick you are to wage war in foreign lands yet you know nothing of war in your own.
A fight by Israel against the Iran will end in bloodshed of many millions. Yet you see this as good because it happens to foreign lands. This is caused by faliure of Bush policy for “Axis of Evil”. Iraq was invaded on charge of Weapons Mass Destruction, which did not exist. Now Iran belives that only defense against America is nuclear weapon.
Duro,
Nations have interests, and they protect those interests. When given the choice, who would choose to wage a conflict in their own country if they could wage it in another? Perhaps your country (Serbia?) shouldn’t have decided that ‘enthnic cleansing’ and systematic rape were viable tools of governance.
No one I know is advocating wholesale invasion of Iran, but rather strikes on their nuclear-related sites. An Iranain nuclear weapon is an existential threat to Israel, and a club to cow the entire Mid East. Iran has the ability to prevent possible attacks of its country by complying with U.N. resolutions and cooperating with U.N. regulatory authorities. Oh, and maybe if Ahmadinejad didn’t continually proclaim that Israel had no right to exist, maybe the rest of the world wouldn’t be so alarmed.
If ‘millions’ die in a conflict with Iran, it will be Iran, not the U.S. that will be primarily to blame.
The war bill against Iraq had a total of 23 reasons listed. Only one of those reasons was WMDs. Traces of both WMDs and active WMD progrmas have been found, despite the lies of the left.
I just saw the BBC and it reported on a sharp rise in tensions on the border between Lebanon and Israel. It is cited as saying that this is the highest tensions since the last Lebanon war. Nasrallah is boasting about his abilities which now include Scud missiles.
Should Israel do anything which is highly likely Lebanon will attack with its 40,000 missiles. Israel is libel to look much like Gaza did after its war.
The scenario will probably include an invasion of Lebanon with a once in for all conclusion. There is a strong possibility that this would include Gaza.
All the European posturing, the M/E scimitar rattling, threats, pleas, chest pounding and all that “stuff” is all meaningless. If Iran gets nuke weapons, they will use them on Israel and the world will be at war because Israel will use every one of their 150 nuke weapons on the targets they have chosen. The only hope the world has to prevent this is for Iran to go down. The world has been, evidently, waiting for the Iranian people to “rise up” and eradicate the black robes. This is obviously not going to happen….so something will happen. Whatever it is, Iran will be a smoking ruin, as maybe Israel, Mecca, Medina, Amman, Cairo, Damascus, and several other M/E cities will be. Sad, sad, sad….but something has just GOT to give…and it will….and maybe it’s about time. I, for one, am totally sick and tired of arabs and muslims. I could stand to see a great slaughter of them…..they say they want to see a great slaughter of Christians and Jews all the time….so why shouldn’t I feel the same way about them? Totally tired of their abuse on the world!
Menachem Ben Yakov ; read and research before responding
Israel is the single largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid, nearly one-third of the total direct bi-lateral aid. Israel receives more than all of Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa combined. That is, one of the richest countries in the world, a country of around 6 million people, receives more aid than two entire continents including some of the poorest regions in the world. This aid amounts to around $500 per year for every Israeli citizen and more if we exclude the Palestinian citizens of Israel who receive few if any benefits from the money (none of this aid goes directly to Palestinians living in the occupied territories).
Other aid to Israel is harder to calculate. Much is buried in DoD (Department of Defense) budgets and some costs such as lost interest from early disbursement, forgiven loans, etc. is difficult to calculate. Nonetheless, many estimates put total aid at near $5.5 billion per year. One should not be confident of any particular number here, but there are clear categories of aid not included in the foreign aid budget: research and development support for weapons systems, joint military training, loan guarantees, loans that are later forgiven, gifts of military hardware, access to US military intelligence, special grants for refugee resettlement, and early disbursement of funds.
This last category is not widely known. There are at least two ways in which Israeli aid is different from that of any other country. First, it is transferred to Israel in one lump sum at the beginning of each fiscal year. Other countries’ aid is disbursed throughout the year. This, of course, costs the US interest on the money. Second, Israel needn’t account for specific purchases. Most countries receive aid for very specific purposes and must account for how it is spent. Israel is allowed to place US aid into its general fund, effectively eliminating any distinctions between types of aid.
US loans to Israel are also a source of much confusion. Israel owes the U.S. government almost $3 billion in economic and military loans. It is often stated by Israeli officials that Israel has never defaulted on a loan from the United States. This is true, but only because loans are waived before default can occur. From FY 1994 through FY 1998, Israel received $29 billion in waived loans. Currently, the total U.S. contingent liability for Israeli loans the amount the US will owe if outstanding loans are not repaid is over $10 billion.
Alex, lion’s share of that aid is spent in the United States for goods produced in the United States. That aid also subsidizes products that are produced in Israel, for use by American companies to improve their products, largely military ones.
America rolls over it’s debts for all of it’s allies, especially the reliable ones, just look at how much the US poured into the Shah’s Iran even though Iran even at that time was an economic powerhouse and flush with oil money.
I suspect that your concern with how Israel is treated has more to do with some sort of personal outrage that the Jewish State, with emphasis on the Jewish part, is being treated better by the US than other countries, even though this is entirely untrue.
I would suggest that you compare the foreign aid given to Israel with the results the US obtains from that “aid” with the foreign aid given to Egypt and the Palestinians who take the aid and then snarl at the US while verbally and physically giving support to America’s enemies like Syria, Libya, and all the rest.
Of course you won’t, all you really want to do is bash Israel and by extension the Jews.
The fact that the US is giving money to jews really does bother you, doesn’t it.
Regardless, aid to countries is given based on two main criteria, the countries need and it’s usefullness to the US.
Israel ranks high on both counts.
For the record until the end of the Six Day War the USA maintained a complete financial and military boycott of Israel. There are two obvious conclusions to that fact. Firstly, Israels two greatest military victories came without and US aid or interference. Secondly it was only after Israel demonstrated its military prowess that the USA became a supporter. A lesson lost on the current Israeli government.
Additionally, Israel has been a great investment for the USA. Without Israels help the USA might not have won either the Cold War or the Gulf War.
How much money was it worth to have Saddam Hussein denied The Bomb?
Whatever the cost to the USA taxpayer the investment in Israel has been a huge benefit for the USA.
Wow Alex. I hardly know where to start.
We can begin with your curious reference to “Palestinian citizens of Israel”. do you mean Palestinians, who are not by any means Israeli citizens, or Arab Israelis. It seems you do not even understand this most basic difference.
Proceeding from there. The budget of around 3 billion is about right. All of that is currently military. Israel is only allowed to spend about 25 percent on Israeli contracts. The rest mostly goes to US firms and jobs as Israel uses near all US equipment or domestic. Because of the highly technical nature of such things as missile defense and parts for F-16s the technology and operational data are shared. A good investment for our defense industry.
Keep in mind that all total foreign aid from the US is a small percent of the budget. Less than 2 percent. Israel is the largest single recipient yet only a small percent of the total. As an investment it is well worth it. We have learned much in Iraq and Afghanistan, but that is low tech warfare. With Israel we get to learn and share with technical equals, who face these threats every day on advanced navel, antimissile, and air force techniques.
It has been said that Israel is “our unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle east”. It is more than that. It is our lab for the next wave of warfare. Drones? Israel invented our best weapon against Pak Taliban and Al Quada. Together we have assembled the most feared weapon platform in current use.
Yes Israel gets the money in one lump at the beginning of the fiscal year. That is deposited in banks with every penny of interest earned used to pay off debt to the US.
The combined budget, with no similar payoff in tech and cooperation, to our great friends in Egypt and Pakistan, equals the total aid to Israel. Add that to our great allies in Yemen and Jordan… We can not talk about the vast amount of cash aid going to our future best buddies in Iraq and Afghanistan which dwarfs anything else we are talking about. Our sons and daughters are bleeding there. US soldiers do not die in defense of Israel. Israeli soldiers will do.
Spin
The reason Iranian politicians are smart is simply because they are Iranian.
The reason most of you think Israel will attack is because you are not Iranian.
Keep on dreaming and let the steam out. Israel will not attack. Why?
Because Israel knows that if it attacks Iran, it means war of attrition.
Israel fears that a nuclear Iran would mean a war of attrition. So why in the world would it want to bring onto itself such a war so soon.
You may argue because a nuclear Iran is more dangerous than a non nuclear Iran. Well, have you thought that a non nuclear Iran is already a biological and chemical Iran?
Can you stop biological warheads and chemical warheads atop missiles from Hezbollah??
Do you think they are any less effective?
You may think they are less effective, but no Israeli Prime minister wants t be the one blamed for turning Israel into an anthrax farm.
So before all you novices jump and get excited, try to learn the geopolitical realities of the region. And maybe for a change you can learn a new foreign middle eastern language that atleast would give your rambling a bit of legitimacy.
Now go back to your Russian major that you studied in college because you were soooooo insightful that you thought Russia will be the major enemy for the rest of mankind. I pity the fool who didn;t major in Chinese politics or atleast Islamic and MIddle Eastern studies.
Now again go back to your Russian politics, perhaps you would have a better luck getting married to a green card wanting Russian after being rejected by American women nationwide!
The problem with bio and chem weapons is they cannot be controlled to stay in one area once released. Such an attack would jeopardize everyone in Israel, but also Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, if not further afield as well, such as on the winds to Iraq and Iran. Retaliation in kind from Israel would be forthcoming once this Iranian attack is recognized for what it is, and that would ensure a Pyrrhic victory all around. Even the Mullahs of Iran do not want that outcome.
Most of us want to rid ourselves pernmanently from the Iranian nuclear weapon threat, and the elements in Iran that willfully seek evil to us, yet we want to preserve the relatively innocent Iranian people from harm as well. This is a very similar problem to how we exorcise cancer from the human body without killing the person. Radiation and chemotherapy cause a lot of collateral damage to the body, but, with proper care, many patients ultimately survive. If we don’t get all of the cancer, and even take quite a bit more of the good cells out surrounding the cancer to be certain, in a finite time the cancer will spread and kill the patient.
The lesson here seems to be that “we” must apply our remedies full force, and as directed as possible at the real enemies in Iran, while making every attempt to limit collateral damage and prepare to aid the common citizens afterwords. This implies that a limited surgical strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would ultimately be useless and a waste of men and material. Buying a year or so is not worth the effort. Kicking the can along condemns our youth to repeating the process later, most likely in a more deadly situation all around than now.
Full force must be used to disable the Mullahs, the Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces concentrations, airfields, missile sites, and all the means of conducting war. This will result in significant civilian casualties because of the manner in which the Iranians have developed many of their high value facilities surrounded by cities, and the dispersion of regime personnel into the general population.
But, who is “we”?
afterwards, not afterwords.
Folks, you are ignoring the obvious Iranian counterstrike. Their response will be a blind-rage attack on anything American in range, besides Israel. Many of their weapons systems don’t have ‘Israel’ range, and they see America and Israel as one and the same in their diseased muslim minds. Israel might start it, but at T+1hr the US will be in the mix. Look for bases in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Arabian Gulf countries to be hit with missiles. Any US Navy ship in range will be attacked. Iran will light up their Shiite operatives in Iraq. Hezbulluh will be green-lighted.
This will give us the opportunity for an nth wave strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, which I hope we take. Standard military strategy for underground installations in any case is to keep dropping bombs until you are sure you have reached the target. I agree that Israel should go for IRGC and RC sites, as well as those delicate oil refineries. They should also try and get Stinky and Khameini in a leadership strike. How about coastal oil terminals?
Re Iranian citizens, yes they are not the target, and they will be the unfortunate collateral damage. We must however consider that the citizens of a country are ultimately responsible for their leaders, even if they are dictators. Maybe this will reinforce that concept.
Re Russia, they are win-win. They have contracts now, they will get the rebuilding and rearming contracts later. The price of oil doubles, and they get rich off that as well.
Read the book Countdown Jerusalem. It was written 5 years ago and it predicted exactly what is happening now.
The war we all predict will indeed come. The onslaught against Israel will occur and then when all hope is lost for Israel the most dramatic thing ever to be seen by mankind will occur. Mankind will know who is at the control of ever atom and who is to be revealed.
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