Baghdad Report: Never Missing an Opportunity to Miss an Oportunity
They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
This was said about the Palestinians, I believe, though it seems to apply just as well to our political class but with a difference. There are some opportunities our leaders never seem to miss: the ones that make things worse.
In the last few weeks, the major political parties in Iraq have kept taking turns at damaging the political process and ultimately their own government. First, the ministers of both the Accord Front and Allawi’s bloc withdrew from the cabinet almost simultaneously, just as the unjustified summer recess was starting.
Last week, the Kurds and Shias added their share of the damage by announcing their new coalition of four parties. The move is wrong in both timing and principle; on the one hand, the date for Gen. Petraeus’ progress report in September is getting near. On the other, it’s a step in the exact opposite direction to what is needed in terms of the surge – the lifeline America has extended to save the country and allow the government in Baghdad to win the confidence of its people.
In fact I don’t know what those people were thinking when they formed this coalition; instead of trying to mend the rift and glue back the fractured unity government they come and officially reduce the government to a Shia-Kurdish alliance and further sideline reluctant Sunnis and seculars.
And saying -as they did- that the door is still open for other blocs to join the new coalition is totally worthless in this case: by then, the Islamic Party of Vice President Hashimi (which the Kurds and Shia said they would welcome) felt shunned because they didn’t wait for them and rushed to announce their “front of the moderates”. And that without even inviting the arguably only true moderate secular group represented by the Iraqi list.
It’s even stranger to see someone like Talabani, who’s considered to be a sharp and thoughtful politician, wondering “why no one welcomed the new coalition.” What makes him and the other leaders of the four involved parties think that anyone would applaud this step? Are they really that na√Øve to think they did something good for Iraq, or even for their own parties? Apparently they thought renewing the vows of their old alliance would strengthen their grip on the executive and legislative authorities and allow them to impose their narrow partisan visions regarding Kirkuk and the southern provinces. But I believe they are shooting themselves in the foot. They made the ruling coalition less representative than ever, and made another change more likely and more appealing than it already was.
Every time we think they are beginning to wise up one of them comes and does something stupid. While regular Iraqis want nothing but a decent life, the fat rich suits care only about competing for more power. And even in this they disappoint. All of them.
So, what’s the solution?
Changing Maliki and his cabinet without holding new elections can cut the time needed to bring a change, but with the downside that the new Prime Minister will still have to pick his cabinet members from the same pool of candidates. Unless he’s an extraordinarily tough man his choices would be restricted with sectarian and ethnic quotas. While these quotas may prevent a “tyranny of the majority,” they also lead to one deadlock after another.
But even early elections might not bring a breakthrough. There’s no assurance that new elections will result in significant change in the political map, mostly because a) existing major parties aren’t likely to tolerate fair competition, and b) the current election system elects slates instead of direct election of individual candidates.
To be honest the situation is a dilemma-we can’t tolerate more incompetence and frustration, and at the same we are not sure what early elections are going to bring. But it’s a risk we Iraqis need to take if we want to end this awkward scene.
Omar Fadhil is PJM Baghdad editor. His own blog is Iraq The Model
So what do you think? Is the new military surge working to win the war in Iraq? a) yes b) no c) undecided
Vote at http://www.pollicious.com
What about the story that al Douri is going to aid the coalition?
Sadly. the Iraqi government seems to be every bit as bad as what we have in Washington.
Political infighting and power / money grubbing and the last thing on their minds is the good of the country.
Their little vacation in August finished them with me, they got *serious* work that *needs* to be done and I am sure they have air conditioned homes, vehicles and government palaces…
I wonder if the growing corruption of the ruling class plays a role here. With the reinstatement of a Saddam-era law a few months ago that allows ministers AND their entourage freedom from oversight and law enforcement, who among them cares about compromising for the sake of Iraq as long as they can stay in office and thus rake in cash for favors? Deadlock is no skin off their noses – quite the opposite, progress could only mean change and eventually giving up the gravy train.
“Things are seldom what they seem … ”
Unity is overrated. This government is not going to override Sunni and Kurd interests, and it’s not a bad thing that some “irreconcilables” are on the sidelines.
The “slate” system has to go. That’s the real advance that’s needed. Consider: in a normal parliament, individual seats are contested, and voters pick which members of each party get in. In this one, they vote only for the “leaders”, who then hand-pick the members of parliament. Bad idea.
Is there any truth to this TIME article that says Mithal Alusi is rising as the “consensus” candidate to replace Maliki? The article goes over a whole list of candidates, and says Alusi is a popular figure on Iraqi TV and is seen as a national unity figure.
Jengo: your poll is obviously so gamed by cheaters or spammers that its worthless. The American public is far more optimistic, realistic and fair-minded about the surge than 80%-14% AGAINST the opinion its working, as your poll claims.
Yet more evidence on-line polls are worse than useless. Why bother? Waste of bandwidth.
There is no point in holding any new elections so long as they are for slates.
Who wrote this disastrous constitution? Was it the UN?
dw: The reality is the majority of the american populace have made up their mind about this occupation, no amount of rhetoric will change their minds!
Buddy: If that’s so, then why did support for the war go UP 7% last month, much to the NYT’s (who ran the poll twicet to check) dismay, after all their propaganda, the public still supports the war in increasing numbers!
Combined with the fact Gen. Patraeus’ report in Sept should further solidify support, I think the Dems plan to cut funding is DOA.
Americans, by and large, are more fair minded and willing to sacrifice for victory than some pundits will admit.
Don Cox–That’s cute, try to blame it on the UN. Sorry. The UN cautioned against this part of the constitution, saying it would lead to sectarianism. It was the Bush people who wanted every ethnic group represented, and they are the ones who wrote the constitution.
I think it’s time for a new Prime Minister, one who the Iraqi’s will actually follow. I’ve heard that Maliki is like a lameduck. The US also has to avoid a precipitous withdrawal. This will at least give some time for the Iraqi Army and security forces to become a significant force and thus make people take the government seriously.
- stuart
It is clear that the various Iraqi interests and factions are positioning themselves for the situation after the American withdrawal. The Democrats have been pounding the drums for retreat and those drums are being heard in Iraq.
Don’t be too tough on your politicians. Our congress now has an 18% approval rating from their contituents without nearly the challenge that you folks face. Our congress is currently on vacation as well -
Thank God.
Hang in there and take care.
Pat
Talebani is now becoming a traitor to Iraq. He is too beholden to Iran. He is selling out the Kurds.
This alliance is crass opportunism and it is anti-Iraqi.
Time to get rid of Talebani. When he goes, so does Maliki. Kurds should be allied with seculars and not with Islamists.
Obviously Jengo is manipulating the numbers in his poll. @Jengo – you have to be believable. Next time manipulate less.
No point to hold new elections when Mahdi army can take over the polling stations in the south and intimidate Iraqis to vote for traitor al-Sadr.
UN most hold the election and anyone with a gun or RPG within 500 meters of a polling station should be arrested and given over to the Sunnis for interrogation.