Baghdad Report: Sadr Ministers Out, Now What?
PJM Baghdad editor Omar Fadhil examines the implications of Muqtada al-Sadr's ministers withdrawing from the Iraqi government.
In a sudden move, Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has pulled his ministers out of the Iraqi cabinet. Many people are asking me why. It’s a good question, and I’ve being thinking about the reasons and implications. They aren’t very easy to determine because of the jumpy, and often illogical, way that this political faction thinks and behaves.
One possible theory being circulated is the six ministers were already on their way to be replaced according to PM Maliki’s cabinet reshuffle plan. So the resignations were like quitting your job before your boss fires you in order to preserve your dignity and save face.
But this explanation strikes me as overly simplistic.
The faction’s threat to leave the government, and the decision to go forward with it, took place while other developments elsewhere, in the country in which the Sadr group is a major player, were taking place and may have played a role in the decision..
What I think is that Sadr is making a decision in which he plan to switch from half-government-half opposition status to all-out opposition.
This has not been declared explicitly so far.
Why? Because while Sadr’s followers are still quite strong, whether in the political wing or in the Mehdi army, they haven’t and appear incapable of acheiving the level of exclusive dominance they aspire to. They can make serious trouble and occupy the streets for a while when they want, but those periods of time aren’t enough for them anymore.
Thus far, the results of the war between Sadr on one side and the government and the coalition on the other side – particularly in the southern part of the country- have been a disappointment for Sadr. It’s likely that he’s considering adopting a new approach by openly declaring his party in the opposition.
In Diwaniya, his militiamen have been defeated and the Iraqi and coalition forces are back in control. In Hilla, the Mehdi army members are being dealt with as outlaws by the local security forces. At least one of Sadr’s offices was burned a few weeks ago, and the statements by local officials during the last month or two clearly showed determination on not letting the militia take over the city.
It’s actually a complex situation because this approach will very likely be different from the one Sadr used back in 2003 and 2004 when his group was yet to become part of the political process. Back then, Sadr was the spiritual leader as well as the field commander of his militia, publicly endorsing his fighters and not hiding his involvement in the armed “resistance”.
In my opinion, Sadr and his political wing will now pretend to distance themselves from the armed wing, which is what they’ve been doing for some time now, while actually keeping -if not increasing- the support for armed operations against military and civilian targets. at the same time, they will try to drive more people into opposing the government and the presence of coalition troops with spectacular protests here and there. And they will find nothing wrong if those “peaceful protesters” occasionally decide to use force and shoot at Iraqi and US soldiers or eliminate those who collaborate with the government and the coalition, because “that’s not us, not the Mehdi army. It’s the people’s reaction to an incompetent government and an illegal occupation”.
Now that they have left the government, they’re going to take advantage of simple-minded people who will no longer blame them for lack of basic services, because the Sadrists are not part of this government anymore. They will redirect all the blame onto Maliki and the coalition, when in fact, it was the Sadr bloc ministers who were controlling three of the most important ministries in charge of basic services: Health, Education and Transportation, in addition to three others.
That’s a point dwarfed by the militia’s direct role in Iraqi’s suffering.
Hints of this new policy are already in the air: the Sadrists organized large protests in Basra yesterday, in which reportedly thousands chanted against the local government in demand of better services and warning of an escalation if their demands are not met. Meanwhile the al-Fadheela Party, to which the governor belongs, said it was afraid some group might assassinate him. Of course, Sadr’s aides denied any involvement in the planning of the protests and protestors were carrying Iraqi flags instead of Sadr’s banners as usual. Still, not many people really bought the act.
Sadr is of the kind of tyrant who would try all methods he can to either control the entire nation of Iraq or, if he fails, destroy it altogether.
His inability to control the country from within the political process makes me think that he’ll try for the latter.
Finally, it’s worth noting that the words which Sadr used to close his message to Maliki this week, were technically an open threat.
In the Islamic culture, the expression “Assalam ala man Ittaba’ al-Huda” (or “peace be upon those who follow the right path”) includes more threats than wishes for peace: its implied meaning is “Follow the right path [our path] or face the consequences.”
Omar Fadhil is PJM’s Baghdad editor; his blog is Iraq The Model.
Here is an amplication that should be obvious to both the US Military in Iraq as well as to the Iraqi civil authorities who are trying to build a nation in the midst of all this carnage….every day that Muqtada al-Sadr remains alive, running his little army of Shia thugs and his cotorie of “Ministers”, the fate of Iraq is in the hands of lawless, murdering fanatics.
al-Sadr should now have been dead for at least three years. If you don’t shoot the little bastard, then arrest him, try him for treason, murder or any of the other capital crimes he as either directed or committed, and then hang him. Hang his successor just for good measure. Hang, shoot or chase off every Iranian national in Iraq too, just to be sure.
If you cannot disarm these people, outlaw these so called “militias”, you lose. And you, sir, cannot afford to lose. The American Dhimmicrats will succeed in getting us to leave within the next 2 years, and as soon as we leave, if reasonable men do not control Iraq, then I fear for your life.
in the 7th century this guy wouldve been on a stake years ago, but we’
re so “above” all of that..
its like we went to south viet nam and gave the VC a chair in the gubmint.
there has to be a constitutional prohibition against dorks like this and he shouldnt have been in to begin with. but alas, some wonk in some office in some subburb of DC thinks its more important to look the part than actually win the effing war.
pathetic, weak and obvious.
I have a hunch that Sistani bought Sadr’s safety in 2003 by agreeing to play ball with the Coalition in exchange for leaving Sadr alive.
From the Coalition’s viewpoint, Sistani was seen as a huge calming influence, and killing Sadr was seen as risky, as it might incite a general Shia uprising. Fighting the Sunnis and AQ was quite enough, thank you very much. Sadr was probably supposed to behave as part of the deal, but he has managed to play both sides.
There is no way to know the outcome if Sadr had been killed in 2003. The only thing that matters now, is what to do now. As long as Sadr hides in Iran, there’s not much than can be directly done about him.
The current containment and pressure strategy will have to play itself out until and unless Sadr makes a large move, which is doubtful. He seem content to rabble-rouse from the sidelines and await the eventual withdrawal he hopes the Democrats will force upon Bush.
Muqtada al-Sadr murdered a competitor cleric at the start of the war. Why has he never been arrested?
Where is SCIRI in all this? Surely they can’t be sitting passively by as SADR cozies with the Iranians, picks off the Shia minor leaguers like Al Fadhil, and threatens to unravel SCIRI positions built up over the last 4 years? Are we likely, for example, to see the Badr army, separately from Coalition and IA, attacking the Sadr army in the South? Might not Sadr embroilment in the South see SCIRI, the remaining Shia major player, benefit from the Baghdad Security Plan in central Iraq, and capitalize on the opportunities for coalition politics which arise with the Kurds and the emerging Sunni alliance? Decimating Mehdi troops in battles in the South, away from Sadr city, allowing for further consolidating Iraqi government gains in Baghdad and in the Sunni areas, may actually benefit the good guys, as well as fitting Iranian “kingmaker” goals in the South. SCIRI must be doing something, no?
Where is SCIRI in all this? Surely they can’t be sitting passively by as SADR cozies with the Iranians, picks off the Shia minor leaguers like Al Fadhil, and threatens to unravel SCIRI positions built up over the last 4 years? Where is the previously favored Iranian proxy, the Badr army? Aren’t Sistani and his base pretty much in a zero sum game with Sadr, when it comes to who has the favor of the Iranians? Given Iraqi politics are pretty much opaque to us outsiders, would surely appreciate hearing from some Iraqi observers on matters such as these.
Omar,
Whatever happened to the cabinet changes that Maliki was to have made several weeks ago? Thanks!
Paul
So does this mean that the Malaki government will be open to rounding up these people when they commit a terror act, or is it still hands off? And at what point will the Iraqi government begin to publicize, condemn, and with the help of American forces, act on Syrian and Iranian allowances of weapons and people crossing their borders and wreaking havoc in Iraq?
Why is Sadr not dead by now? What keeps the coalition, or Iraqi Forces, from not at least capturing him and putting him on trial for murder?
Suggestion for those wondering why Sadr still free: Most reporting has him now based in Iran. Doesn’t mean he isn’t in and out of south Iraq, but very unlikely he will risk coming to Baghdad under current ROE.If we get lucky, the IA and US SOF along Iran border will bag him on one of his border crossings, perhaps via tips from inside the disintegrating JAM. Same way Saddam was finally found.
For those asking: Most reporting places Sadr in Iran, which is good reason why he’s still free. Also likely he crosses border for meetings with commanders, but doesn’t saty long. Maybe we get lucky with local intel and penetrations, and IA and US SOF bag him during a crossing…reportedly the same way Saddam was run to earth, combination of perseverance, boots, and tips from disaffected.