AP Plays Fast and Loose with Jobless Numbers
You see, the primary job pickup or loss number BLS reports is “seasonally adjusted” (the box on the right). Seasonal adjustment is a perfectly valid and useful statistical technique for averaging out reported results in situations where actual month-to-month changes vary widely. The labor market is one of those situations.
But as you can see from the not seasonally adjusted figures in the box on the left, the monthly job increases during February through June of this year, while positive, have been substantially less than those seen in 2005, 2006, and 2007. After the statistical smoothing done during the seasonal adjustment process, these less-than-stellar performances during 2008 have caused BLS to report seasonally adjusted job losses.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, after an all-time record of 52 consecutive positive months, the economy has indeed lost jobs for six months in a row. Analysts are predicting that this job-loss streak will reach seven when BLS releases its July ESR Friday morning.
But please note: What obviously has not occurred on an overall basis is the “slashing,” “stacking of pink slips,” and “vanishing jobs” Jeannine Aversa has obsessed over for the past five months. Seen over that period of time, the difference between reality and the AP reporter’s gloomy portrayals could not be more stark.
As Friday’s report looms, you can see from the not seasonally adjusted chart above that July has historically been a month when the economy sheds a lot of jobs. The vast majority of this occurs in the “Local Government Education” category. In other words, even though most teachers and other school workers choose to receive their pay over 12 months, they aren’t actually working during the summer, and are reported that way.
Though it’s not expected, if July’s overall job loss is less than it has typically been, BLS may actually report an increase in seasonally adjusted jobs.
Aversa’s reporting has been disgraceful. She has repeatedly misrepresented seasonally adjusted results as what is actually occurring on the ground. In the past five months, she and her wire service have misled readers, listeners, and viewers of news outlets that use its information to believe that a collective 300,000-plus fewer people are working. But the government estimates that over 2.7 million more people had jobs in June than did five months earlier. Again, this is not good enough in comparison to prior years. But it is what it is, not what Jeannine Aversa and her editors say it is.
That this 3 million-job gap between perception and reality exists, complete with demonstrably false reports of “pink slips” strewn everywhere, is nothing short of journalistic malpractice — and yet another reason why the near monopoly the self-described “Essential Global News Network” has over initial event reporting must somehow end.
This is a shameless equivalent of push polling, designed to wire the election. I suppose that that is what ‘wire services’ do today.
Nice piece Tom. Government statistics — unemployment, CPI, GDP — and the entire alphabet soup of government stats are useful when presented accurately. As you have demonstrated, the narrative of doom and gloom at the AP seems to have overwhelmed the true facts on the ground.
Everyone knows that government’s inflation and jobless reports are significantly doctored to the lower side. Why don’t you look at jobless rate in governemt versus private sector – government (unproductive, debt-paid) jobs GROW every month, productive jobs decline every month. This fact makes the jobless picture look much rosier than it actually is.
What jobs can we expect in a country with no manufacturing base, living on imported resources, imported manufactured goods and also fighting enormously expensive and completely unpopular/unproductive wars. We live only on debt, That debt is hitting the ceiling and there is no more room left –
9.6 TRILLION of Government Debt
12 TRILLION Corporate Debt (not including financial sector)
15 TRILLION Financial Sector Debt – banks are supposed to be lenders not borrowers???
Adjust away…
Employment numbers are totally bogus anyway. Take a look at who the government considers employed then try and explain the numbers in a rational way. It can’t be done.
I agree, the government does seem to find a way to skew the numbers. Of course, any bureaucrat will find a way to justify their existence even if the position in their self-created bureaucracy is not productive. However, I can speak personally of the decline in the job market for those once employed in the mortgage sector.