Another Super Tuesday in the Books
There were primary elections in ten states yesterday, plus a runoff to fill a vacant U.S. House seat in Georgia. It is hard to find a compelling theme from the results, other then the emergence of female candidates for the GOP in statewide races. Below is a wrap-up of the key results.
California: The nation’s most populous state had the country’s most expensive primary race ever: the GOP fight for the nomination for governor. Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, spent an estimated $80 million on her campaign. She won decisively, with over 60% of the vote. She will now face 72-year-old Jerry Brown, who already served as governor from 1975 to 1983. It will be difficult, to say the least, for Brown to run as the candidate of “change we can believe in.” Whitman will undoubtedly spend many more tens of millions in the general election campaign. Brown led by 6 points in the last pre-primary match-up with Whitman, but was below 50%.
The GOP nominated another female former CEO, Carly Fiorina (Hewlett Packard), to take on three-term Senator Barbara Boxer. Fiorina also won a decisive victory, with over 50% of the vote in a multi-candidate field. Boxer led by a similar 6-point margin over Fiorina in a recent match-up, but was also below 50%, a danger zone for an incumbent. In a year when voters seem to be seeking fresh faces and have been welcoming to non-politicians, the Republicans are offering a very different look to an electorate that has had a very significant gender gap in recent cycles, with Democrats winning by big margins among women voters. Another factor that may help both GOP candidates is the association of the Democrats with the public employee unions that have nearly bankrupted California, and several other states, with outlandish pay and pension plans, approved by Democratic-controlled state legislatures and governors in recent years. Critics of the Obama administration and its push to rapidly increase the size and control of the federal government may also be drawn to these two GOP contenders who have private sector experience.
All that said, California has become a solidly blue state over the last two decades, and is one of the nation’s first majority minority states. If Hispanics, angered by the new Arizona law, show up in large numbers in November to register their support for the Democrats, the party they perceive as more pro-immigrant, it could counter the enthusiasm advantage that the GOP seems to have nationally this year. At this point, I rate both races as toss-ups, perhaps slightly leaning Democratic. The GOP challengers will be well-financed but will have to deal with the money and ground game of the unions, who for the first time in decades see a threat to the sweetheart deals they have wrung or coerced from state and municipal governments. The GOP candidates have made the focus of their campaigns the condition of the national and state economies — the huge increases in government spending, record deficits, unfunded pensions, credit rating risks, and general mismanagement. These are far better issues to run on this year than the much more divisive social issues that have been more front and center in recent cycles in California and that have hurt the GOP, particularly among women voters.
Arkansas: Speaking of unions, they flushed $10 million away on a Democratic primary fight for the nomination for senator in Arkansas to demonstrate their anger at Senator Blanche Lincoln for withdrawing her support for card check legislation. The unions want more members, particularly in the private sector where their numbers have faded, and are fighting cutbacks to what they have already won in the public sector. More members mean more union dues. More dues mean more money to spend on campaigns to elect union-friendly politicians who will do their bidding. A vicious cycle one might say, especially for the taxpayers who eventually foot the bill for public sector employees.
No president has ever been more union-friendly than Barack Obama, as seen by the more than 20 White House visits by former SEIU President Andy Stern, who is now (hold your laughter) part of an appointed panel to come up with ideas to reduce the federal deficit. In Arkansas, the unions crossed President Obama, backing Lt. Governor Bill Halter’s challenge to Lincoln from the left. Lincoln led narrowly but failed to get 50% in the initial primary and won 52% in the runoff. In any case, she now has a huge uphill fight to retain her seat. She trails the GOP nominee, Congressman John Boozman, by over 20 points. That margin will likely close a bit now after the primary.
As a California Democrat, I would like to point out a result that is getting lost in the intense focus on the GOP side of the aisle: 20% OF CA DEMS SAID HELL NO TO BABS BOXER: http://templeofmut.wordpress.com/2010/06/09/20-of-voting-ca-democrats-said-hell-no-to-boxer/
I woudnt go that far, considering second place finishers were named Aguirre and Pineda. It could be a furtive ethnic solidarity vote by hard-core Aztlanistas. Or CA perhaps needs a Brian Sandoval clone.
Personally I could care less about `diversity` in gov`n. In fact. I have come to despise that word altogether. What I care about most is that all politicians adhere to our Constitution and govern accordingly. Anything less is unacceptable. If that means we are governed by all white males or all black women then so be it…
Agreed. All that needed saying.
Agreed. White, black, brown, green, purple…That does not matter at all. A Brain would be nice and a little honesty would go a long way
Amen and Amen!
Exactly.
I do not care about diversity, but it has become a club wielded by the Left. This slate of candidates weakens that club.
The Left is impotent without their rabid rhetoric. There are no rational arguments which support their positions. They rely on demagoguery. Strip them of such things, and you can stick a fork in them.
The greatest advantage the Dems have is their appeal to women, who react more greatly to high-sounding words… empty words. Minorities did not inherit the Protestant work ethic, so they line up with their hands out for the promised goodies. White men have been the reps of the GOP, because white men are not so interested in words, but character and results.
So, the Left strips the Right of the support of women and minorities with their rhetoric and promises, then blames the Right for the lack of women and minorities.
Who cares about diversity? Diversity is crap. Experience is key. Worrying about diversity is to become like the Progressive Liberals always looking to headcount each special interest group while ignoring experience. When I hire, I look for the best record, experience, enthusiasm, etc. I don’t care who works for me as long as I can get the best worker.
The support of unions will be a net negative this next election and for the foreseeable future. They will become the #1 hated group taking over that role from big business.
With regard to Nevada, I suspect that the pro-Angle voters in the primary (40%) had very little overlap with the pro-Sandoval voters (56%). Many Angle supporters regard Sandoval as a RINO and distrust him and his positions on taxes. Although the Governor’s race between Sandoval and Rory Reid, is expected to be close, I suspect Sandoval will score points by running ads–like the one he did in the primary–which mention “Reid’s Washington Friends”–thereby tarring the son with his father’s name and associations. Some conservatives might not like Sandoval, but I suspect that the strategy of running against the more abstract Reid will help him greatly in the general election.
On the other hand, Angle is going to have a tough, uphill battle in her campaign to defeat Harry Reid. If many conservative Republicans don’t like Sandoval because they think he’s too moderate, the inverse is also true, and many moderate Republicans don’t like Angle because they think she’s too conservative. And that creates the problem. The Democrats are already starting to attack Angle for being too extreme. The worse their attacks get, the more likely some influential moderate Republicans will refuse to endorse Angle or tacitly endorse Reid. It has happened before. Although the anti-Reid vote will be stronger this year than in some years, it remains to be seen whether it is going to be strong enough to elect Sharon Angle.
For the record I was not applauding candidate diversity, merely noting that the GOP is offering a different looking slate this year. Since the GOP is attacked for its lack of diversity, if nothing else, this will help remove one of the arguments used by the liberal mainstream media to steer minority or women voters away from the Party. There has been a real gender gap in recent voting cycles, though I think it is more issue focused, than based on individual candidates’ gender. But there is some gender identification in voting. Of course, competence, and political and economic philosophy should be the key factors in evaluating candidates. But it would be naive to think they are the only ones that actually matter to voters.
That’s kind of strange, jumping in out of nowhere with a comment about not applauding diversity.
Uhh, Adrian, he’s the author of the piece we’re all commenting on. It makes a tangential point about diversity.
The question is: will men turn off tune out drop out? Probably. See Guy Garcia’s book The Decline of Men.
I think this is regard to the comment about having two Indian Americans. I felt my hackles go up when I read that comment. We need to focus on being Americans!
For the past decade, the GOP has been growing significantly in membership, influence and stature amongst women and ethnic minorities. I, myself, am an Asian, female, conservative Republican.
Diversity has always been there within the GOP, but so have the lies and distortions created and disseminated by the intolerant, angry, racist liberals and progressives.
we need to focus on being American,hmmm… calls into question the timing of the race baiting Arizona law. good way to alienate the hispanic voters. i’m just saying who in their right mind is going to vote against their own interest? does the GOP want conservatives or not?
The Right is very poor at communication; at selling their cause. They fail to make clear to hispanics that hispanics are the greatest victims of illegal immigration.
The problem I have with the AZ law is that it is unconstitutional. I am for suspending habeas corpus in times of war, as allowed by the Constitution. AZ has to consider their situation akin to war, with the Federal government failing to act. I would be okay with it if it simply had a sunset clause, and if a state of emergency were declared along with it.
They MUST act, but they must always keep in mind the Constitution. Then they must sell it. If they would do it in that order, even hispanics wouldn’t mind.